A quick check-in with U.S. adults reveals that contrary to the prevailing view on Twitter, the decision to pause the J&J vaccine💉 due to a small number of blood clotting issues actually makes Americans more, not less, confident in the COVID-19 vaccines.
2/5:
Trump’s disapproval👎 rating is now at 60%, up 6 points from May. The gap between this and his approval👍 rating is the largest it’s been all year at 23 points.
The American Electorate is 56% culturally conservative and 52% economically liberal.
Check out our Quadrant analysis of the national electorate from our June Verified Voter Omnibus:
1/6:
🆕 updates to our Multiparty Democracy numbers from 2019:
Conservatives and Labor are the two largest parties, with Conservatives gaining📈 the most support since 2019 (+4%) and Nationalists losing the most (-4%).
📎:
More on our Political Quadrant covered by
@benshapiro
and written up initially by Ruy Teixeira for TheLiberalPatriot on Substack. The message progressive Democrats are pushing bears little to no similarity to the lived experience of working-class & Hispanic Americans.
4/5:
Trump supporters are less optimistic about winning re-election this month than they were last, with expectations to win dropping📉 6 points and unsureness raising📈 4 points.
Biden's lead over Sanders narrows, with Biden's 30 percent vote share remaining relatively consistent as Sanders secured a 5 point gain to 19 percent of the Democratic vote.
Voters want to see President Biden negotiate on the debt ceiling, rather than insist on a clean increase. Some 74% say Biden “should agree to negotiations and try to find common ground around the debt ceiling, including some reductions in government spending.”
A majority of voters (55%) say COVID should be treated as an endemic disease while a majority of Democrats (52%) say it should continue to be treated as an emergency.
While still underwater, Joe Biden's approval has been experiencing a steady climb as perception of the economy ticks up from a peak low in September 2023.
In our latest polling, we asked voters to give their approval of recent presidents and found voters approve most highly of John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan.
NEW FINDINGS: In our latest poll, we found that an Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would INCREASE Donald Trump's margin over Joe Biden by one point(!)
Later today, we'll be sharing our September Omnibus poll so you can get all the details!
Younger voters were more open to rank Prince Harry and Meghan Markle as their favorite members of the royal family, with each receiving 20% of support from those under 50.
Populists - voters who are culturally conservative, economically liberal, make up 14% of the electorate. In contrast, Libertarians - voters who are economically conservative, culturally liberal - make up 6% of the electorate.
More than one third of likely voters cannot identify RFK Jr. between a photo of him and his father--including nearly half of those who say they have a very favorable opinion of him.
43% of American registered voters are in some way part of the political “right”➡️ - either through party, ideology, or strong Trump favorability. But only 13% meet all three of those criteria.
NEW from our Verified Voter Omnibus:
In our quadrant analysis of the US electorate, we found that voters make up the following groups: conservatives (36%), populists (17%), liberals (43%), libertarians (5%).
Check out our full Quadrant analysis here:
President (National)
Donald Trump 47%
Joe Biden 47%
Ron DeSantis 46%
Joe Biden 45%
Nikki Haley 46%
Joe Biden 41%
10/23-26
N=1,029 LV
online, matched to voter file
2022 will be a record breaking midterm election for voter turnout. Echelon Insights predicts a turnout of 125,655,745. Our estimate represents the continuation of a pattern of record-breaking turnout we saw in the 2018 midterms and 2020 general election
In mapping out TV viewership by party and turnout, we found:
-Yellowstone and NCIS lean Republican.
-Euphoria leans Democratic and lower voter turnout.
-Voters who’ve seen none of the shows are among the highest turnout voters and lean Republican.
Latino? Hispanic? Latinx? We asked voters what they thought people of Spanish-speaking heritage should be called.
A plurality of voters (42%) picked the term “Hispanic” while only 3% chose “Latinx.” What’s more, less than 1% of Hispanic voters say they preferred Latinx.
🚨New poll alert from our August Verified Voter
Omnibus🚨
2020 National Democratic Primary:
Joe Biden 30%
Bernie Sanders 19%
Elizabeth Warren 11%
Kamala Harris 11%
Beto O’Rourke 4%
Cory Booker 4%
Pete Buttigieg 3%
Andrew Yang 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
In our latest omnibus, we tested if Americans are identifying the right Kennedy when they are polled on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the 2024 election. You can read our new blog post on what we found:
Sen. Josh Hawley’s proposal to regulate social media algorithms for political bias is favored 48-21%, with similar margins among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.
In December, 48% of GOP voters said they’re primarily supporters of the Republican Party🐘, compared to just 45% who said they primarily support Trump.
This is a significant shift since October when 59% said they’d put Trump first.
Trump’s funniest moment will always be when he asked a seven-year-old if they still believed in Santa and then saying “because at seven it’s marginal, right?”
I will never apologize for thinking this is funny so don’t waste your time.
Republicans have shifted from supporting Trump over the GOP: 48% support👍 the GOP over Trump, while 38% said the opposite. In October 2020, only 30% supported the party over Trump.
The concept of public campaign financing💲 is deeply unpopular to voters. 67% of voters strongly/somewhat oppose the idea in general, and 69% strongly/somewhat oppose it in regards to campaigns that have already raised millions of dollars.
By a 38-point margin, when given a two-way choice, the electorate says reducing inflation is more important to their vote in November than protecting abortion rights.
To determine where voters were on the quadrant, we asked if they agreed more with the liberal or conservative stance on a variety of cultural and economic issues.
In our multi-party analysis, we found that voters broke down into the following parties: Nationalist (21%), Conservative (18%), Acela (10%), Labor (33%), Green (10%).
A majority of Democratic voters (53%) say the US is morally responsible to defend Ukraine while a smaller share of Republican voters (38%) say the same.
WARNING: SPOILERS for The Last of Us!
In a recent poll, we found that 82% of likely voters would make Joel’s decision, with virtually no difference between those who report having kids at home and those who don’t.
1/7:
New updates on Election 2020 from our October Verified Voter Omnibus.
Biden leads↗️ Trump by 7% head-to-head, Democrats lead by 4% on the Congressional Ballot.
📎:
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis beats President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup by a 3-point margin. Donald Trump loses to Biden by 3 points and Nikki Haley loses to Biden by 7 points.
It’s possible that the increased importance of the abortion issue with likely voters from June has given Democrats an edge in July. However, economics remain the key to the clear majority of likely voters.
Populists - like Conservatives - list jobs and the economy as the biggest issue facing the country today, whereas Liberals believe the environment/climate change and healthcare are the most important issues.
Over 80% of voters support consistent early voting hours and requiring photo ID to vote. In contrast, just over half support no-excuse mail-in voting.
New political updates from our July Verified Voter Omnibus:
What if the United States were a multi-party Democracy? In our latest multi-party analysis, we matched registered voters with the following parties: Nationalist (24%), Conservative (18%), Acela (12%), Labor (29%), and Green (8%).
The Conservative and Liberal quadrants align heavily with their respective parties, whereas the Libertarian quadrant leans more towards Democrats, and the Populist group is split evenly across party lines.
A plurality of voters think companies should not take stances on political and social issues. 66% of GOP🐘 voters agree with this sentiment, compared to just 23% of Democrats.
New analysis on corporate engagement in politics from our April Omnibus🔗: