Ptuomov @ptuomov Twitter profile

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

It’s not the corruption itself that bothers me the most, it’s that we are no longer outraged when we see it.

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Last Seen Profiles

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

@NBCNews “He didn’t fly the plane himself.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

@HilzFuld “The bigger fish is in Tehran.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

11 months

@lporiginalg “That’s for the umpires.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@nexta_tv This is absurd. That Russia would use nukes in Ukraine and that Scholz would have any influence whatsoever on Putin are both absurd beliefs.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

11 months

@paulkrugman That's not the original team transitory proposition. The original team transitory proposition was that the 2021 inflation would subside without large interest rate hikes. That didn't happen and the team transitory was wrong regardless of what happens now.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

10 months

@JohanSalomon You have to maintain the three pins and allow the queen to respond to either taken rook or taken bishop. So that suggests Bb2 and zugzwang.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

@yanisvaroufakis Jesus, have you actually followed what the Russians did in the torture chambers to the POWs?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@JustinWolfers Are you seriously implying comparability here?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

@nypost “Tik Tok Tik Tok…”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

Prof. Ken French argues that all of the true and persistent alpha that is earned by the assets manager goes to the manager, The argument is that the ability to generate alpha is a scarce resource and money is not. I think there is a lot of truth to this. However, I would argue

Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

This was a great podcast:

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

24 days

The bear case against managed futures trend following funds I have three arguments against investing in managed futures trend following funds. First, (all but one) pure managed futures trend following funds that I know are tax inefficient for US taxable investors. The funds

Quantitative Factor Investor (QFI)

@qfinvestor

24 days

Managed Futures continues to be our largest allocation, and I do not understand why it is ignored by much of the financial advisory community. The evidence for MF is overwhelming.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

9 months

@paulkrugman “Team goal post mover keeps on moving the goal posts.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 month

Thoughts on "return stacking" If I've understood it correctly, the idea of return stacking is investing in a professionally managed fund that uses leverage inside the fund and provides exposures to multiple investment ideas while providing beta exposures that match more common

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

@choffstein

1 month

Does the world need another podcast? No. But if you want to hear me, @RodGordilloP , @GestaltU and @MikePhilbrick99 chop it up about return stacking once a month, check out the new Get Stacked podcast. (📬 Feel free to send questions in)

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

This explains a lot about those startup company cash balances on checking accounts at SVB:

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@paulkrugman Could you get someone on your staff to update this chart?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

10 months

@HeroDividend “$150k has never been worth as little.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

@JoshuaSteinman Americans are still competitive on April Fools day jokes.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 month

@MsJulieLenarz Finland, too.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

@SonnyBunch “The editor wad terrified of being beheaded by the young TikTok-trained WaPo journalists.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@minna_alander The top three vote getters in Finland, 1-2-3. These two on the sides beat the one in the middle at the party level. Misogyny!

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

I think that international diversification isn’t so much about protection against crash risk. All markets crash together these days. It’s mostly protection against a home country asset “lost decade” after an asset price bubble. If you were able to diversify away from Japanese

Meb Faber

@MebFaber

7 months

Always funny to me to hear people say "International investing hasn't worked". What they really mean is "international investing hasn't worked for American investors during this cycle". It's worked splendidly for most investors in nearly all countries around the globe.... My

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

4 months

@nntaleb @PTetlock If someone gives you negative feedback on your behavior, do they automatically move from the “real, honest, unassuming, down to earth person” category to the “harmful BS vendor” category?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@johnkonrad It seems that people commenting on the issue don’t always understand the difference between propulsion power loss and electrical power loss.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@simongerman600 Why is Crimea red?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

20 days

@IndoPac_Info “Back?” Taiwan has never been a part of China.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

16 days

@BrentToderian @circulareconomy “I agree that people should buy more two seater sports cars.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

4 months

@picotop dudes who make $78,000 love saying they “make six figures”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

8 months

@AlecStapp Citizens really, really hate inflation.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

10 months

@ben_golub "If women didn't have that 'I can change that' instinct, none of us would have offspring."

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@tonyheyl If the Nordic countries didn’t exist, it might be Monday morning quarterbacking. But they did, and do.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

6 months

@johnkonrad What is needed against cheap drone and missile swarms is directed energy weapons and those are best installed on nuclear powered surface ships. It makes no sense to use a missile to shoot down a small drone. Laser cannon as the primary weapon and shells like 4HEAD as a backup.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@simpatico771 @MGawna @ArmchairW This is wrong. F-35 does not need AWACs. The whole point of sensor fusion and laser/GHz radio links is to create a sensor network that is self sufficient.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@Totally_Brandon You can sometimes drive 9.5 hours trying to get out of Logan Airport in Boston and fail.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@MGawna @ArmchairW The F-35 weapons bay doors are open for less than 5 seconds when it launches a missile. This is enough for detection but does not help targeting. In general, the current Russian systems can detect F-35 in the area but they can't target it.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

10 months

@cnviolations “When I was fifteen or whatever, I didn’t have the cash to rent a Ferrari. Solid achievement.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

11 months

@tseides This one I agree with fairly strongly: 7. "A great misunderstanding in recent years is that if you accept illiquidity, you automatically get a higher return. In reality, buying at a discounted price provides the higher return."

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@johnkonrad “According to the NYTimes “the average force required to slow the ship is between 6 million and 12 million newtons.” Arresting 12 million newtons of force in a split second is too much for even the most stalwart anchor windlass to absorb.” In understand what you are trying to

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@nexta_tv Why is that guy still a free man in Germany?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 month

As a small research project, I’ve been listening to a _LOT_ of investing podcasts lately. (Don’t worry, I’m not planning to start a podcast. I sound like Arnold Schwarzenegger if he had had a stroke.) My conclusion is that while a lot of nuts and bolts investing podcasts are

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

8 months

@JuddLegum @Target I think this analysis is very flawed. It ignores the profit margins, self service vs. counter service models, and the decision trees to report vs. not report theft to the police. Terrible.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

9 months

@NateSilver538 I love your stuff but on Covid age adjustment you’re just wrong. It’s that important.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

4 months

@JohanSalomon Quick but nice, first rank rook to f6.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

23 days

The case for trend following I believe in the following premises about capital markets: (1) There are many skilled active portfolio management teams out there who have the skills to earn alpha. The alpha comes mostly from individual investor behavior (bad direct picking of

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@wgfwb @jebizhere @onekayeighty @TheBigCigar1906 The F-22 cost issue was/is real. However, in terms of capabilities vs. lifetime sustainment cost, there’s nothing on the fighter market that is even close to how effective and cost effective F-35 is. Finland did a full evaluation recently and F-35 is the only game in town.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@fruitsofcrime @simongerman600 These maps tell us more about the mapmakers than about Crimea.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@dwilliam9940 "And the Texian's warm water ports!"

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@ewarren So rationing by queuing instead of rationing by price? Like in the old Soviet Union system? Or do you have something else in mind?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

8 months

@JeremyDBoreing Hamas have been funded by Iran for close to fifteen years. Now the order came from Teheran to attack, which likely was cleared by both Moscow and Beijing. We should be focusing on the whole decision-making chain behind this attack.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

11 months

@davidfrum What have you and NYT actually done on the battlefield? It appears that you have no shame.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@BadBalticTakes

Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@minna_alander The top three vote getters in Finland, 1-2-3. These two on the sides beat the one in the middle at the party level. Misogyny!

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

Historically, we classified stock market periods into two categories, “bull markets” and “bear markets”. Let me humbly propose a third category: the “cocaine bear market”, formerly known as the “bear market rally”. The cocaine bear is coming down now.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

10 months

@natesolon Unless there’s a catch, this looks easy. Queen sacrifice at f8 and then either rook mate or knight mate depending on how black takes the queen. Or did I miss something?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

10 months

@JohanSalomon Re7. Badly boxed-in black can only move the pawn by one or two or move the king sideways. Moving K results in a 6-rank checkmate with the e-rook, moving the pawn by two in a 6-rank checkmate by f-rook, and moving the pawn by one in a h-file checkmate by f-rook. I think.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

@politicalmath “He didn’t fly the plane himself.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

Next year, the tax rate on interest income for someone in my position will be 49.8%. Here’s what nominal yield is needed to produce a zero after-tax real return: Inflation, required nominal yield 0%, 0% 2%, 3.98% 4%, 7.96% 6%, 11.95% 8%, 15.93% 20%, 39.84%

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

11 months

@AnnCoulter “I bet Mexico would pay to see that happen!”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

@JohanSalomon Rg4

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

Essential tools for any private credit fund valuation committee:

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

@NateSilver538 If you live in the Nordic countries, the most important thing to know about the weather is whether it’s above or below the freezing point of water. Celsius communicates that very well and is therefore a lot better scale for that part of the world.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

10 months

@InvestmentTraps Amerikassa saavutettuihin etuihin kuuluu etätyön lisaksi pilven polttaminen kotiterassilla työpaivän aikana.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

@redsteeze “He didn’t fly the plane himself.”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

5 months

“When one door closes, another door opens” — Boeing

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

11 months

@PeterSweden7 “Must be the fact that Sweden didn’t lock down for Covid!”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

@jbarro I agree that the murders are down and people are too pessimistic about murder rates. (In the case of Boston, it may just be that the Boston proper is a ghost town at nights nowadays.)

Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

Further evidence that common perception about the murder rates is way too pessimistic. The recent big city update, although still very noisy, suggests that the murder rate has now dropped to very close to the 2019 level.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

6 months

@saletan @AGHamilton29 “Tik Tok Tik Tok…”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@elonmusk @MarioNawfal That’s misleading nonsense that you’re exclaiming here

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

Every VC/California “SVB contagion” tweet should have “on Twitter” added to the end. Like you add “in bed” to fortune cookie slips. “Without a bailout, SVB’s failure will cause a total chaos” -> “Without a bailout, SVB’s failure will cause a total chaos on Twitter”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 month

How to statistically reject any asset pricing “factor” model I believe one can statistically reject any asset-pricing factor model that uses traded factor portfolios that are constructed using a stock characteristic. I am going to use the Fama-French three factor model as an

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

11 months

@dhtoomey “I’d blandly pay for both of them to retire together on a tropical island luxury eco resort without an internet connection.”

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@ptuomov

3 months

@SpiritofHo Russia occupied and enslaved half the Europe for 45 years. We’re not the same.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

10 months

@JohanSalomon I’d say Qd5. Black can’t move the rook for the threat of Qb7#. If the a-pawn takes the rook, queen checkmates from a2. If the a-pawn advances, then rook can checkmate from the a-file because the queen pins the b-pawn.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

10 months

@Schuldensuehner This is one of the more spectacularly uninformed posts on Twitter, which is an achievement.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

4 months

WHY IS THE PORTFOLIO IN VALUE STOCKS AGAIN, IN REGIONAL AND COMMUNITY BANKS OF ALL THINGS, FFS?!?!!!!

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

@Markzandi “Inflation continues to moderate, and the only thing keeping it from the Fed’s target is shelter costs, which will recede…” Annualized core services ex shelter CPI inflation: 8.5, 7.8, 6.3, and 5.0% for 1, 3, 6, and 12 month periods.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@MichaelPSenger So these are the people behind my friend’s four-year-old son having a face mask literally taped on his face by a public school teacher in fall 2022?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

An opinion: Institutional asset managers, in contrast to retail mutual fund managers, deliver alpha to the clients net of fees and trading costs. The alpha is small but positive in aggregate. I speculate that retail mutual funds and direct retail investors are the primary

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@greg_travis @michaelpsenger I was chased by police on an empty Hawaii beach because I was violating a mandate by sitting down alone while on the phone. A middle aged woman attacked me at Copley Square for not wearing the mandated mask outdoors. A teacher taped a mask on a friend’s 4yo son’s face. Etc.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

For delegated asset managers, the risk aversion is higher and horizon shorter than for the underlying asset owners. I don't know exactly why it ends up being like that, although I can speculate, but it's completely clear having managed been involved in the business in various

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

22 days

TREND SENTIMENT INDICATOR I recently accidentally performed an informal human experiment without informing the subjects or getting an approval from the Institutional Review Board. I separately posted the bull and bear cases for trend following funds. My subjective rating of

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

5 months

@IsabellaMWeber @petrogustavo Are you sure that this particular endorsement is a positive?

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

4 months

@PresenceInno “Not all Texian ports are going to need icebreakers either!”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

2 months

More on emotional manager evaluations: Evaluation frequency. For the last several years, I have had a number of investments in portfolios managed by large quant shops, 4-8x leveraged and 10-20% p.a. volatility, as is customary these days. All of these investments have performed

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

27 days

Investor, know thyself Reading FinTwit and listening to investing podcasts, I've noticed a dearth of discussion about the measurable objectives of investing. What is the goal of investing and how can we quantify it by making it operational? After years of brutally honest

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 month

how leverage kills you IMO, a modest amount of planned leverage doesn't kill you. What kills you is the positions moving against you, yet you not cutting exposure to get back to the leverage target. You refuse to cut because you think that... "It'll come back."

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

25 days

@ramit A 50 year old in a convertible is most definitely not a sign of a midlife crisis or a crisis of any kind for that matter.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 month

On closet indexing: Higher active share and higher tracking error portfolios don't automatically outperform low active share and lower tracking error portfolios. It's very easy for a manager without any skill whatsoever to increase the active share and tracking error. If the

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

@NAChristakis “Tik Tok Tik Tok…”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

6 months

@eyeslasho “Free” (i.e., paid from tax monies) high quality breakfast should be served to all public school students.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@FrKadel @JamesSurowiecki This is also applies to a lot of people. In particular to columnists, journalists, and media commentators.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@AndrewYang The problem is that a lot of SVB’s customers are startup companies that add negative value. The current startup quality is absurdly low, many of them are just a tax on the society. Culling that herd based on inability to do basic cash management isn’t the worst way to do it.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

4 months

@reshetz Did Tucker ask Putin about the Katyn massacre?

Katyn massacre - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

3 months

@OzKaterji I’m going to blow your mind: “Svenska Aeroplan Aktiebolaget (acronym SAAB)”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

1 year

@nandoodles @WSJ @YouTube @GoogleAds “Their customers have no recourse, of course. What are they going to do? Sue Google?”

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

7 months

@NateSilver538 Also, quality of everything, both goods and services, is perceived to be a lot lower now than in 2019.

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@ptuomov

5 months

@Sander_vdLinden Although discussing the (remote) possibility of a bioweapons program accident was banned, that was not the extent of FB censorship. Discussion of a possible lab leak from civilian gain of function research was also (outrageously) banned on FB.

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Ptuomov

@ptuomov

6 months

I wonder how the non-signatories among the Harvard faculty will be punished after the smoke clears.

Steve McGuire

@sfmcguire79

6 months

Over 300 Harvard faculty members have written to the board in support of President Claudine Gay: “The critical work of defending a culture of free inquiry in our diverse community cannot proceed if we let its shape be dictated by outside forces.”