Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

@choffstein

66,467

Followers

1,235

Following

4,502

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35,613

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CEO & CIO (Newfound Research) | 🥞 Return Stacking | 🌊 Liquidity Cascades | 📆 Rebalance Timing Luck | ⚡️ Risk cannot be destroyed, only transformed.

🎙 flirtingwithmodels.com

https://t.co/rHtEUWs5LV

Joined October 2009

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

8 months

My company, Newfound Research, turned 15 today. Coming up on this anniversary, I reflected quite a bit on my career. I’m not sure why, but this milestone feels larger than I would've expected. So I decided to write something. 15 Ideas, Frameworks, and Lessons from 15 Years

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

My wife just asked, "Do you know spreadsheets?" I feel born for this moment.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

still my favorite thing to come out of the defi cycle

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

This can’t be real. Is this real? This can’t be real.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

How is it 2020 and I still can’t wire money between accounts over the weekend?

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

5 years

My bank just called me about something, but couldn’t tell me what it was about unless I answered my security questions. Sorry, I’m going to assume it’s fraud and hang up 100% of the time. I called the bank myself. Turns out it was legit. What a stupid, broken security model.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

11 months

we all need standards

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

"nevermind"

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

This might be the most wholesome BTC comment I’ve ever read.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

1 year

I'm not an expert, but I'm almost certain this isn't how it works

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

1/ Some things *I think* I’ve learned messing around in crypto for the last 12 months.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

6 years

I genuinely wonder how many hundreds of billions of dollars are managed via Excel spreadsheet.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

That's Mr. Influencer to you.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

My mother-in-law is controlling the car music with her phone and @50cent 's Many Men just came on. After 5 awkward second of silence, she started rapping every word.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Is RobinHood down for anyone else? None of my orders are getting processed...

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

In 4 billion years, the Milky Way is going to crash with Andromeda, so who even cares about anything anymore?

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

1 year

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@TheStalwart

Joe Weisenthal

1 year

NEW ODD LOTS: It's the legend @nntaleb . @tracyalloway and I talked to the famed author, trader, and self-described flaneur about what Bitcoiners, VCs, anti-va**ers, deadlift maximalists and others all get wrong about what it means to be antifragile

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

It's called reflexivity. You wouldn't get it.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

No longer will I offer my 2 cents. Rather, I’ll offer my $LUNA.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Sentiment Check: Schwab is receiving so many requests to turn on options trading that their usual 24-48 hour application turnaround is now 7-10 days. Source: Me. Calling Schwab.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

1/ 🧵 I spent the last week looking into the BTC futures basis trade (on the unregulated exchanges). I thought I'd share some thoughts as to my findings... 👇👇👇 (Did I do that right?)

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 months

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@TaviCosta

Otavio (Tavi) Costa

3 months

Although we all know markets don’t tend to perfectly follow these trading analogs, the chart below gives us a valuable historical context to the recent run-up in US stocks. The correlation says it all. It is remarkable the eerie similarities between today’s environment and…

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

Uber driver: "Nothing reverts like the VIX. Any time it spikes, I just buy puts." Started trading 9 months. "Gotta buy options. Guys like me with $10,000 aren't gonna get dumb rich on stocks."

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

1/ As I watch the basket of retail favorite equities and BTC make new highs into the end of the year, I can only hang my head. Because my performance was absolute rubbish this year. What went right? What went wrong? Read on. 👇

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

Why do people keeping saying that this is the first bear market / recession that millennials will have gone through? Where do you think we were in 2008?

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

🍲 Fresh from the kitchen... LIQUIDITY CASCADES The Coordinated Risk of Uncoordinated Market Participants In which I explore the narratives of Fed intervention, the growth of passive, and the convex nature of hedging.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

I don’t understand why any sport tolerates this nonsense.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Like, respect your elders. But also recognize when they've lost their fucking minds.

@MorningBrew

Morning Brew ☕️

3 years

“I’d rather be a billionaire and not be loved by everybody than not have any money.” Unreal quote from Charlie Munger in response to criticism about a dorm he designed for UCSB that would leave 94% of students without windows.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

$ARKK should buy call options on $SARK as a hedge.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

My timeline went from "worse than 2008" to "it's 1999" real quick.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

9 months

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@chamath

Chamath Palihapitiya

9 months

@wmcintyre84 @tiltwave I didn’t inflict any losses. Stop being a victim, the world will pass you by.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Naval telling Taleb that bitcoin is an out-of-the-money call option is peak Twitter.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

🎉

@MebFaber

Meb Faber

12 years

Wake me up when the 10 year hits .5%

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

I’ve written hundreds of research articles on the Newfound blog throughout the years. I stopped writing last year (got burnt out), so my guess is a lot of new followers don’t even know they exist. Here are a few that I’m especially proud of ➡️

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

My pops got an e-bike so he could keep cycling during chemo and now I'm just chasing him like an asshole.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Sitting in the discord of an altcoin that went from $4 to $60 over the last week, and $60 to $0.25 in the last day.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

25 days

I'm increasingly convinced probability and stats should be taught in highschool instead of calculus.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

I can’t remember a time in my career (starting 2007) that I’ve felt so overwhelmed by the macro picture. COVID. Latent stimulus impacts. Supply chain issues. Demand shocks. Quantitative tightening. War. Economic sanctions. Supply shocks. 🤹

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

6 years

Does it scare anyone else that a twitter user with 32 tweets and 388 followers can post this quote with zero citation and get 16k+ retweets and 31k+ likes? Because as far as I can tell, this quote isn’t real. Know what is real? Confirmation bias.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

@quantian1 I like the rest of the thread

@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

@ONAN_OUS This is… something else.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

nothing captures the current wealth disparity in this country quite like a decentralized organization raising $40mm from “we the people” to buy the constitution, only to get outbid by a billionaire.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

33 rounds for 33 years. 10 navy seals on odd rounds / 10 burpees on even rounds.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

"Trust the science" was a dumb slogan. Science is wrong all the time. Should've been: "Trust the scientific process."

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

The secret to Twitter is to learn something new and then immediately turning around and post it on Twitter like you knew it all along. In fact, you're an expert on it.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

My feed is currently 50% facebook, 50% wormhole, and 100% price nuke porn.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

“My fund is super uncorrelated. While traditional markets are closed, I still lose money on the weekends."

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

4/ 🐳🦈🐠🎣🍣 Understand where you are in the information food chain. Unless you have good reason to believe you’re early, assume you’re late. (And, therefore, the exit liquidity.)

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

1/ I received a DM this morning asking me about "recommended reading" in the space of trend following. This all depends upon what you're looking for and your expertise, but I figured I'd share some thoughts publicly...

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

The worst part about a move to digital money is that the new generations will never know the pure bliss that comes from finding $20 in a winter coat they haven’t worn for 6 months.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

11 days

Blackthorne: It’s called “return stacking.” We can introduce additional return streams on top of your existing strategic portfolio, unlocking the diversification benefits of alternatives without the behavioral problems. Mariko: The anjin wants to use leverage.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 months

trying to explain to my wife that I'm not buying meme coins but rather carefully curating a basket of tokens with high betas to the attention economy as a hedge against financial nihilism

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

I’m waiting for someone to launch an ETF that just holds US futures overnight.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

1 year

I see we're all systemic risk experts this weekend

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

1 year

Remember when 17 thousand people raised $47 million dollars to try to buy a copy of the constitution and Ken Griffin -- at the height of the payment for order flow controversy -- swooped in and bought it? That was some villain shit.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

VC in crypto is just different

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 months

i’m sorry AI people, it’s over for now

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

11 years ago, I got introduced to this weird, goofy thing. Today, we're inseparable. Happy 11th anniversary, @Twitter . (Also, my wife and I got married 3 years ago today. That seems important too.)

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

1/ Why the bond bull market had almost nothing to do with declining interest rates (and why you shouldn't 😴 on roll yield or leverage) A (long) 🧵... (I wrote about this back in 2017 too: )

Did Declining Rates Actually Matter? - Flirting with Models

It is often assumed that declining interest rates were a significant boon to fixed income returns over the last several decades; but is that true?

blog.thinknewfound.com

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

Patagonia

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

1 year

If I could only ever recommend a single article on investing, I think it would be “Seven Thoughts On Running Big Money for the Long Term” by @CliffordAsness . I’ve only ever found one copy of it online. What would you recommend?

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

My lambo money turned into hot wheels money over night

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

I'd say that we should all hold ourselves to a higher standard than this pathetic and cowardly display of bullying, but the bar here is so low you could trip over it. Just be fucking better. @INArteCarloDoss .

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

I don’t know where Bloomberg finds the people who man their help desks, but they’re wonderful.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

There’s an old 60 Minutes episode about Amazon from 1999 going around. People are mocking those in the video who were scoffing at the valuations. Yes, AMZN is up 3000%+ since then. It just fell 94% first.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Me: This is so stupid. Also Me: The momentum and trend factors are supported by centuries of empirical eviden...

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

6 months

what if “stocks for the long run” had the data wrong?

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

6 months

every time I think about buying long-dated TIPs, I can’t help but look at this chart and think, “it’s just stacking commodities on top of nominal Treasuries…"

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

1/ What is "return stacking" and how is it different than stretching for returns? (From our paper ) A quick 🧵... (I know, I know...)

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Return Stacking: Strategies For Overcoming a Low Return Environment

Stretched valuations in many stock and bond markets are challenging investors to look farther afield to meet investor return targets.

investresolve.com

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

It’s the “As a CFA” for me.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

5 years

I don’t care what your political views are: there’s something seriously funny about a sitting president furiously typing this into Twitter.

@realDonaldTrump

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

5 years

PRESIDENTIAL HARASSMENT!

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

I think about this way too much.

@ryxcommar

Senior PowerPoint Engineer

3 years

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

Someone needs to invent an interaction between a handshake and a hug that I can use when I see one of my wife's friends that I've only met like twice.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

My podcast pet-peeve is a host that speaks as much as their guest during an interview. You don’t need to talk more to prove you’re smart; prove it with the thoughtfulness of your questions.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

Potentially buying a house in the next 2 years. Thoughts on the best hedge (e.g. most convex) against a continued rise in housing prices?

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

I'm no lawyer, but...

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Oh come on, @BlackRock , get your own thing

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Okay, who did this

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

i'm shocked to discover that something called "magical internet money" didn't keep it's peg last night

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

The best takes on crypto in my feed are currently coming from someone pumping pudgy penguins, a cat in a space helmet, and a blueberry (maybe? honestly, I don’t know what it is). What a time to be alive.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

We’ve spent the last couple months building our own option backtesting engine from the ground up (including multiple surface fitting models). Biggest lesson learned so far: Never trust an options backtest. Ever. (Doubly true if it includes the wings.)

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

So, I can borrow $50,000 USDC at AAVE for 1.36% (3.23% - 1.87% MATIC rewards) and deposit at BlockFi for 7.5% APR? I can’t imagine how this could go wrong for me.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

5 years

If my father tries to leave the house without kissing my mother, she yells "slippery slope!" and he has to go back and kiss her goodbye. After 45 years, that's just adorable.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

A thought I hadn’t considered much until this week: Fewer shorts in the markets can lead to more violent market selloffs. Why? Shorts are natural buyers during market declines (profit taking). Without them, we risk a demand vacuum.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

I have a quant equity joke that’s really funny on paper, but it doesn’t work well when you try to use it.

@daniel_egan

Dan Egan

4 years

I have a behavioral joke but it doesn't make sense when you think about it.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Told my wife I was going to the beach to get a quick workout in. "Can I join?" 15 minutes later we're leaving the house and she has a blanket, a snack plate, and wine.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Few things are more likely to give me a heart attack than a text message from my chief compliance officer saying, “can you chat?"

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

I used to run a $500mm+ custom mandate for a large institution. In October 2020 I was fired. Decided to run the hypothetical model performance (estimated net of fees) this morning to see how it would’ve performed since. Such is asset management.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

Reading a note from GS this morning… 👀

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

1 year

goldman sachs gets it

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

3 years

The hand The hand she wanted. she’s dealt.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

5 months

our printer completely stopped working because my wife's credit card, which was on file for ink refills, had been shut off due to fraud. the printer wouldn't work until we gave @HP a new credit card. what sort of dystopian hellscape is this.

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

2 years

classic twitter

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

1 year

when your stocks rally, it’s because junk is getting bid up by a short-covering rally instigated by retail call option nonsense. when my stocks rally, it’s because institutions are finally re-rating my high quality companies trading at a discount to fair value.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

6 months

Any hedge fund beta that can be turned into an ETF will be turned into an ETF. At which point, institutions have to ask, "why am I paying hedge fund fees for this? Why do I want something that's less liquid?" I'm betting this trend accelerates.

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@choffstein

Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

4 years

“It’s fucking math. It’s economy. It’s statistics.”

@stoolpresidente

Dave Portnoy

@stoolpresidente

4 years

Why do I like when stocks split? Because you get double the stocks. Two stocks are better than one especially when they always go up. #Math #DDTG

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Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

10 months

I think I’ve shared this before, but this is a phenomenal paper if you want to dive into the weeds of trend following. - Convexity properties - Replication - The “collection of strangles” model

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