Pollster. Public opinion / politics
@IpsosUK
. Ipsos Politics Talk podcast. Live with Courtney & Finn in London. Expect Spurs, polling & politics. Views my own.
Small boats election? Don’t forget public services!
My analysis for
@standardnews
today on how Cameron return & concern about public service puts legacy of austerity back in the spotlight.
So what results do you get if you ask Sir Humphrey's polling questions?
@IpsosUK
decided to try it. We showed 1,000 Brits his pro national service poll and 1,000 his anti national service poll. Results:
Sample A: 45% in favour of national service, 38% say no.
Sample B: 48%…
Yes, Prime Minister once featured a sketch where Sir Humphrey once showed us all how not to do opinion polling.
But what would the results of his two polls actually have been?
Tune into
@TimesRadio
with
@MattChorley
~11.40 this morning to find out...
Honestly, I cannot understand why we’re talking about earrings & Boris Johnson’s future with ambulance, GP & A&E waiting times what they are. The NHS should’ve been a 10-15 minute segment here. What’s mad is it’s been like this throughout the campaign 🤷♀️
NEW from
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
.
🚨Labour lead at 14 🚨
Lab 44 (+3)
Con 30 (nc)
Lib Dems 10 (-5)
Green 8 (+2)
Other 8 (nc)
Fieldwork July 21-27. Changes from June.
But there is a catch...
🚨NEW
@IpsosMORI
/
@standardnews
poll:
Starmer leads Johnson +13 on 'most capable PM' 🚨
Most capable PM (change from September)
Starmer 44% (+6)
Johnson 31% (-7)
1st Lab lead on this measure with Ipsos MORI since Brown vs Cameron (Jan 08)
Read on for more:
A question you might reasonably have is why would Biden take Michigan if he's still ~13k votes behind. Answer is simple - there are ~360k votes left in Wayne County (Detroit) and if they split as they currently are (67% Biden / 32% Trump) Biden lands a net gain of ~100k votes+.
NEW from
@IpsosMORI
: Starmer opens up a clear lead over Johnson in terms of 'net favourability' and Labour draw level with Cons. But that is just part of the story - read on for more....
NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Public think a Labour govt led by Starmer more likely than a Con govt led by Truss to deliver in 12 / 13 areas.
Biggest leads for Starmer's Labour on improving public services (+13), reducing NHS waiting times (+12), levelling up (+12), fresh start (+10)
"That's a good question to ask 'last minute dot com' Steve Barclay."
Labour's
@wesstreeting
tells Sky News that "it's a bit much to ask me how I'd fund Tory policies", after being asked about the government's pay offer to NHS unions.
📺 Sky 501
NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Labour lead at 11.
Lab 41% (+2 from May)
Con 30% (-3)
Lib Dems 15% (+3)
Green 6% (+1)
Other 8% (-3)
But the real story is on party image. THREAD
1/ Cons at all time low on being seen as 'fit to govern'. Labour lead by default. UK politics in a nutshell?
🚨New from
@IpsosUK
: Very important numbers. 47% now say Labour ready for government. 🚨
- Highest figure Labour have recorded since losing in 2010
- In fact - last opposition leader to register scores like this was Cameron. Just before he won.
This is significant
🚨NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Labour lead at 26 🚨
Labour 51% (no change since January)
Conservative 25% (-1)
Lib Dem 9% (no change)
Greens 5% (no change)
Other 9% (-1)
Fieldwork dates 22nd Feb - 1st March
No obvious Windsor bounce for Sunak. THREAD/
It’s really annoying to watch TV execs trying to ‘do the right thing’ and end up making things worse. Fawlty Towers? Seriously? People will end up blaming BLM for things they never asked for!
🚨NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Labour lead at 25 points 🚨
Labour 51% (+2 from Dec)
Cons 26% (+3)
Lib Dem 9% (-4)
Green 5% (+2)
Other 10% (-1)
But let's look deeper ... THREAD/
'People love Boris Johnson. They want to see him, they want to touch him, they want to have their kids photographed with him. Keir Starmer hasn't got a tenth of his charisma.'
Andrew Pierce discusses the Prime Minister's popularity.
🚨New from
@ipsosuk
/
@standardnews
- Labour lead at 22 🚨
Labour 47% (+3 from May)
Conservatives 25% (-3)
Lib Dems 13% (-)
Greens 8% (+2)
Other 8% (-)
1,003 GB adults interviewed by telephone 14-20 June
Short 🧵
I don’t understand why it’s so hard to look at the locals and say both a) Tory brand is in deep trouble and last night was terrible for them and b) There is evidence of a lack of enthusiasm for Lab that can’t be ignored. Its what public polls have said for ages. 1/2
Cons currently on 469 losses across GB as it stands. Few councils remaining. Of course this can only tell us so much about a future GE for lots of reasons - but it’s fast becoming a very bad night for them
#LocalElections2022
“Yes it is, it’s a terrorist organisation”
Labour’s
@johnmcdonnellMP
says that Hamas is a terrorist organisation, after Jeremy Corbyn refused to call them a terror group when asked by
@piersmorgan
#Peston
As Sue Gray delivers report / update to Downing Street our
@IpsosMORI
Political Monitor shows Keir Starmer open up an 18-point lead over Boris Johnson on who would make the 'most capable PM'...
THREAD
@tomhfh
It’s not funny though, it’s just crass,
To be honest, when it comes to Eng v Ger there are worse chants. But the whole Second World War angle just brings out the absolute worst in (mainly male) England fans.
Part of the appeal of the womens game is leaving that stuff behind.
NEW
@IpsosMORI
/ Evening Standard. Tory lead at 4 points - Greens up to 8(!)
Con 42 (+1)
Lab 38 (-3)
Green 8 (+3)
Lib Dems 7 (+1)
Other 5 (-2)
1,056 GB adults interviewed by phone 29th Jan - 4th Feb, 2021. Changes from December. More to follow.
For what it's worth, if there is an award for backbencher of the year then
@DavidLammy
should win it. From Grenfell to knife crime to Windrush he's been on top of his game in a way few others have been. Really stands out.
At some point Westminster will need to engage with the fact we’re going to have to change the axis on this chart to fit in the % that think Brexit is having a negative impact
How popular is Suella Braverman with the British public?
16% favourable
51% unfavourable
Source:
@IpsosUK
1,055 interviews.
Fieldwork October 27-30th
More:
In our
@IpsosUK
Brexit polling today there are two devastating figures:
1) Just 13% (!) think Brexit has had a positive impact on the UK's ability to control immigration / borders. Such a key factor in Leave winning.
2) 7 in 10 of those under 35 think it has been a failure.
More from
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
on the impact of Brexit.
- 7 in 10 say negative impact on economy
- 55% say negative impact on growth prospects
- Just 13% say it's had a positive impact on ability to control immigration / borders (!)
🚨 New from
@IpsosUK
. 2023: The year Rishi Sunak became (almost) as unpopular as his party 🚨
Net favourability
Jan 2023
Sunak: -9
Conservatives: -26
November 2023
Sunak: -28
Conservatives: -33
Short 🧵
Sobering video from Martin Lewis. UK faces a 'financial cataclysm' as energy bills rise to unaffordable levels in October, need for 'warm spaces' this winter, mortgages up, unsecured debt too. Grim. Political implications secondary but likely huge.
I'm afraid a financial cataclysm will hit the UK roughly the time the new PM starts, devastating lives
This is a video letter to u and Conservative leadership candidates, to help u, and plea for them to prepare and prevent the worst; energy, mortgages, cards & more. Pls share
NEW from
@IpsosUK
Rachel Reeves preferred as Chancellor to Jeremy Hunt. 35% to 29%.
First Labour lead on this measure since June 2013.
7 in 10 expect economy to worsen in the next 12 months.
More here:
In today's
@IpsosMORI
Political Monitor Jeremy Corbyn registers the worst net satisfaction ratings for a Leader of the Opposition we have ever seen in the series.
Satisfied 17%
Dissatisfied 75%
Don't know 8%
Net -58
This matters but will it keep him out of Downing Street?
So as it stands. Our
@IpsosMORI
prediction poll vs current vote share (in brackets)
Con 44 (44)
Lab 33 (32)
Lib Dem 12 (11)
Green 3 (3)
Brexit party 2 (2)
Two elections in a row spot on...Exit poll on point too!
A good day in the office.
#GE2019
#exitpoll
#GeneralElection
New polling from
@IpsosUK
highlights challenge new PM will face.
A Lab govt under Starmer seen as more likely than new Con govt to
- improve public services +19
- reduce regional inequalities +13
- reduce cost of living +12
- act with integrity +12
- offer GB a fresh start +11
NEW from
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
. Labour lead at +23. Changes from Feb.
- Labour 49% (-2)
- Conservative 26% (+1)
- Lib Dems 11% (+2)
- Greens 6% (+1)
- Other 8% (-1)
1,004 GB telephone interviews March 22-29
So no change. BUT there is ALOT more going on 🧵
Starmer promises a load of stuff to get elected Lab leader, ditches it, pundits say this was to be expected.
Truss says ‘tax cuts no handouts’, pundits say she doesn’t really mean it wait until she gets in.
No wonder the public don’t like politicians. Dishonesty everywhere 🤷♀️
It’s a remarkable trend that many on the left now seem actively hostile to Remain voters despite Remain voters being mainly from the left. Seems to have sprung up overnight. Almost, dare I say, coordinated?
New from
@IpsosUK
: 51% of Brits think Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK.
Just 22% think the impact has been positive. 22% say it has made no difference (the rest don't know).
Net positive / negative is -29. Lowest in our series going back to GE2019.
🚨NEW
@IpsosUK
/
@standardnews
: Labour lead up to 22 🚨
Labour 49% (+8 from Dec)
Conservative 27% (+3)
Lib Dems 7% (-6)
Green 7% (-2)
Reform 4% (-3)
Other 5% (-1)
Data below. But what else? 🧵
Posting this again as
@HackneyAbbott
was told on
#bbcqt
last night that Labour was behind in 'the polls'. Not strictly true. Labour is behind with YouGov, who publish most often, but with 8 other pollsters Labour is either neck and neck or slightly ahead.
Important point when reading the polls
Since the beginning of Nov only one pollster that is not YouGov has given the Tories a lead. That was TNS on Nov 12 and the lead was 1 pt. They now have Lab +3.
7 others all have a tie or Labour ahead.
Source:
@britainelects
If you’re just waking up:
- Labour gain Wellingborough. 28.6pt swing.
- Labour gain Kingswood. 16.3pt swing.
Reform gets 13% and 10% respectively.
Terrible night for Sunak and the Conservatives. No sign of a comeback here.
But all the usual caveats about by-elections apply.
New from
@IpsosUK
: Labour more trusted than the Conservatives to:
- Have the right policies for the GB economy 40% - 33%
- Manage Britain's taxes / public spending: 38% - 32%
- Reduce you / your family's cost of living: 39% - 28%
FW Sep 23 - 25 (finished Sunday)
🏴 Actor Ewan McGregor backs Scottish independence:
"The Scottish people want to stay in the European Union, and the English don't. So I just think we're going in different directions. So I think probably
#itstime
.
Just a hunch but I think Rochdale will have virtually zero impact on Westminster politics in the long run. This weeks economic figures and Thursday’s by elections will see to that.
NEW
@IpsosMORI
/
@EveningStandard
*Labour lead at 5*
Labour 42% (+5)
Conservative 37% (-3)
Lib Dems 8% (nc)
Greens 5% (nc)
1,007 interviewed by telephone Oct 22-28 (changes from Sept)
NOTE - fieldwork before EHRC report & fallout.
More to follow.
Polls: Tories gain a couple of points.
Commentators: Sunak surge!
Polls: But they’re still on 25-30….like it might just be margin of err-
Commentators: I’ve seen enough, Tories to win!
😂
NEW
@IpsosMORI
/
@standardnews
Jeremy Corbyn's leader satisfaction rating falls to worst ever achieved by a leader of the opposition in our series - dating back to 1977.
Satisfied 16%
Dissatisfied 76%
Net -60
Still seeing people bemused Cons leading polls. I don’t think it’s hard.
1) Won big in 2019
2) Retaining most of that support - Brexit done
3) Con supporters will tell you govt not to blame for COVID / doing as well as can be expected
4) Vaccine
5) Lab still have work to do
Could Keir Starmer be finding his voice in the current energy crisis? Could this be his 'David Cameron moment'?
Quite possibly. Will explain. Quick thread:
"Freeze energy prices and fund that with a windfall tax from the oil and gas companies who are making excessive profits"
Sir
@Keir_Starmer
says solving the energy price crisis is "a simple political choice" - he explains his plan to
@theJeremyVine
.
Do you back it?
#JeremyVine
NEW from
@IpsosMORIScot
/
@STVNews
Should Scotland be an independent country?
(among likely voters)
Yes 58%
No 42%
Inc DKs
Yes 55%
No 39%
DK 6%
n=1,045 Scots aged 16+.
f/w 2nd - 9th Oct, 2020
More to follow.
NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Rishi Sunak's favourability scores fall to their lowest since he became Chancellor:
Favourable: 26% (-10 from March)
Unfavourable: 44% (+11)
Net: -18
Sunak has only ever had a negative favourable rating one other time in our series (-6 in Jan 2022)
THREAD
🚨NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Labour lead unchanged at 20 points🚨
Labour 44% (no change from Sept)
Conservative 24% (-)
Lib Dem 13% (+1)
Green 9% (+1)
Others 11% (nc)
Labour lead was 21 pts last November (just after Sunak took over)
Fieldwork Oct 11-18th
Quick 🧵
It’s possible to not like Netanyahu whilst also thinking it is utterly unacceptable to be at a wreath laying ceremony for Black September terrorists, it isn’t either / or and to try and deflect in that way is pathetic.
NEW
@IpsosMORI
/ Evening Standard
- Starmer holds best net satisfaction scores for a leader of the opposition since Blair
- But Johnson still holds narrow lead over Starmer on 'most capable PM'
Context important - read on for more...
Some of these poll leads for Labour are mind blowing.
For context, the largest lead I can ever find
@IpsosUK
recording for Labour going back 40+ years is +39. In Dec 1994 we had Lab 61, Con 22.
Lab won in 1997 by 44 to 31 in GB. So these things do narrow but...
🚨NEW
@IpsosUK
study explores ethnic minority voting intention /leader satisfaction ratings 1996-June 2023.🚨
Ethnic minority voting intention Nov 22-June 23
(since Sunak took over)
Labour 68%
Conservative 16%
Lib Dem 8%
Green 5%
There's a lot more 🧵
🚨NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Brits more likely to think Starmer's Labour will offer a fresh start & improve public services than Sunak's Conservatives if they win the next election🚨
Labour leads by
+27 on improving services
+24 on offering fresh start
+20 on integrity / levelling[up
🧵
Sky poll tracker has Labour lead at 19 points. No obvious movement. No realistic expectation of this being much different by new years.
So why on earth would the Tories be planning to go to the country in May?
NEW
@IpsosMORI
Political Pulse. Twice as many Britons think things heading in the 'wrong direction' as the 'right direction'
Wrong direction 49% (+5 from Sept)
Right direction 24% (-5 from Sept)
Quick thread:
Have long thought much of the commentary around Angela Rayner is riddled with misogyny & class prejudice. All politicians deserve scrutiny of course - especially senior ones - but there’s something in the visceral reaction she provokes in some that is hard to ignore.
I get people have their political tribes but some of you are too cynical. Why wouldn’t Matt Hancock be emotional at the thought of light at the end of the tunnel? He’ll have worked his ass off under enormous pressure. Sometimes it doesn’t hurt to see the human side of things.
Some personal news. Delighted to announce that I will be joining
@IpsosMORI
in the new year as a Director in their Public Affairs team – working on politics, public opinion and other things. Exciting times ahead!
I get that everyone is on tenterhooks about the prospect of a hung parliament. Understandable. But worth remembering margin of error works the other way too. Lots at stake in the next 48 hours.
#GE2019
New - Our final MRP of the campaign shows a small Conservative majority likely.
Central estimate is a majority of 28.
However at this stage we still cannot rule out a hung parliament.
As Liz Truss floats the potential for a political comeback worth revisiting the February
@IpsosUK
Political Pulse
Liz Truss - 8% favourable / 68% unfavourable
Check out more trends at our beautiful polling microsite:
How popular is Keir Starmer?
Average net satisfaction with Starmer compared to past opposition leaders in our
@IpsosMORI
Political Monitor
Starmer +12
Blair +21
Cameron +5
Smith +2
Kinnock -11
Howard -12
IDS -17
Miliband -17
Hague -25
Corbyn -29
Foot -37
Ave since '79 -12
🚨NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Final Political Monitor of the year has Labour lead at 26🚨
•Labour 49% (-1 from Nov)
•Conservatives 23% (-6)
•Lib Dems 13% (+6)
•Greens 3% (no change)
•Other 11% (+1)
Fieldwork 7-13 December.
Labour had led by 9 last Jan (40/31)
THREAD
It's that time of year at
@IpsosUK
: who is on Santa's naughty and nice list? First for the nice list...
NHS staff top for the 3rd year in a row followed by national treasures David Attenborough and er Paddington...
Martin Lewis, Lionesses and Zelenskyy make up the top 6 (of 46)
And what about the issue that dare not speak its name - Brexit? Well, 55% now think it has had a negative impact on the country.
Monthly change is typically incremental but the trend is clear - like air coming out of a balloon. The public dont think it is going well.
🚨 NEW from
@IpsosUK
: Starmer leads Truss by 7 points on who would make a good PM 🚨
- 40% say Starmer would do a good job, 27% bad
- 33% say Truss would do a good job, 35% bad
Fieldwork 5-6 Sept e.g. immediately after result announced.
World meet Finn Thomas Pedley-Bergh. The little man arrived this Friday, weighing in at a chunky 7 pounds 9 ounces. Mum and baby doing so well and dad over the moon. 😃
@CCB30