Entrepreneurs, with passion for a vision, invent the future they want. These are my predictions for abundant, awesome, technology-based, Possible Tomorrows (2035-2049) ... if we allow them to happen!
#TED2024
@TEDTalks
The Khosla Family is adding $10m to
@GiveIndia
to it's previous commitment as a match and hoping others will join in this urgent need. There is large and very urgent needs & a day's delay costs lives. One day at one hospital without oxygen had 8 people die gasping for breadth!
.
@sama
is a once in a generation CEO. He’s an instigator whose positive mark on the world will be indelible, and profound, in every corner of the globe. It’s an honor to work alongside him wherever he is.
A simple idea this holiday season. Stop measuring GDP and instead measure the total income of the bottom 50% of the population and optimize policy for that. Additions and exits from this group can also be tracked. We get what we measure. Will this raise income inequality?
My daughter got married earlier this year. I can’t sing for the life of me. I wrote what I wanted to say to her as a speech, entered it into ChatGPT, said, “Do rap lyrics for it,” it did, and then entered it into a music AI.
So I was able to blare it over the speakers, a…
The thing nobody talks about is that in 10 years we'll have a million bipedal robots and in 25 years we'll have a billion. You’ll buy yours for $10k and it will be as important to your life as your smartphone is now
New YouTube video: 1hr general-audience introduction to Large Language Models
Based on a 30min talk I gave recently; It tries to be non-technical intro, covers mental models for LLM inference, training, finetuning, the emerging LLM OS and LLM Security.
Khosla Family, after a successful emergency project with
@GiveIndia
for oxygen to India, will finance setting up of 10-bed ICU units in 100 rural districts with telehealth specialist services for COVID & beyond. Looking for partners to fund the other 600 rural districts @$40k per
The AZ vaccine is unlikely to be ever approved in the US given current alternatives here.
@Potus
should absolutely release all doses and future commitments for US supply since Moderna and
@pfizer
can supply US needs
With
@elonmusk
, feels like a bit of sour grapes in suing
@OpenAI
, not getting in early enough, not staying committed and now a rival effort. Like they say if you can't innovate, litigate and that's what we have here. Elon of old would would be building with us to hit the same…
Nuclear fusion will transform energy and the world. In 2018 I said 15 years until fusion and we are on pace to make that happen. This will bankrupt entire industries, create and destroy massive companies, and radically rearrange international relations.
Private equity people fundamentally don’t understand innovation and new technologies. Nuclear fusion is going to change literally everything in our economy and if you showed them a working prototype they will just ask what the top line is.
What you want is for your oncologist to have read the 5,000 most recent papers published about your indication. No doctor has the time for that. AI oncologists will.
For people who "felt attacked" by this they need mental health therapy. They should learn to "toughen up" and not feel attacked. OK to not work 70hrs/wk and live with the consequences of the choices you make. He is speaking to "career ambitious" young people but there are other…
@vkhosla
Recently Narayana Murthy talked about how youngsters and people starting out should work 70 hours a week. What do you have to say to that for people who felt attacked by this statement? Does this somehow ask the youth to have their mental health take a backseat? Or is this based…
My read is that China will peak in the next 10y. I'm not bullish on China long term the way I am on India. But that makes China more dangerous as it grows desperate and gets stuck in an economic slowdown, with $1T of bad debt outstanding. The Thucydides Trap in reverse. Recommend…
Great work by
@GiveIndia
1. Concentrators: 20000+ concentrators ordered; 2. Cylinders: 14000 cylinders for Delhi & Bangalore; 3. PSA Plants: 10 ordered; 150-bed covid care facility at the Bangalore Airport; "O2 for India" service with
@Olacabs
+Shadowfax & much more in process!
AI will make expertise near free. Who will build the first billion $ revenue company with <100 employees with near free programmers/doctors/advisors/etc etc? Worth attempting!! The power of ideas powered by entrepreneurial energy will be hugely multiplied as the scarce resource
Many people who don't like the media, and are not the media (me for example) hate Trump for his lack of values, his pathological lying, his selfishness, and being everything I don't want my kids to be. He appeals to the least appealing parts of American society who have no…
As soon as you realize how dishonest the media is, you realize the importance of going direct. This is what makes Trump the indispensable figure. Just look at the massive crowds he draws. He goes over the heads of the media, which just adds to their pathological hatred of him.
I always tell startups to hang on long enough to give luck a chance. If there are ten factors in success, five depend on what you do, three on luck and two on competitors.
@sonyasupposedly
One way to manufacture luck is to be a good person. If you're good, people will do good things for you "behind your back," and since the causes are hidden, those will read to you as good luck. (For similar reasons, bad people will tend to think of themselves as unlucky.)
Most investors will actively hurt your business. Their money can't begin to compensate the damage they do because they're focused on driving short term paper returns
Hear funeral places & hospitals are being forced to classify COVID deaths as "non-COVID" (honest undercounting & politics). Happened to a close friend's family so first hand experience. Hard to trust the numbers but I expect cases and deaths are underestimates by 100's of %!
You are clueless about what I do. I do nothing like "consolidate wealth and power to the ultra wealthy". I spend my time getting better electric car batteries, and lower carbon aviation fuel and better primary care or cardiology or better housing to market. I do hard stuff!
@vkhosla
Hi Vinod, What you do for a living is consolidate wealth and power to the ultra wealthy. That's how you get paid. That is how you make your money. You may want to consider disclosing that when commenting on this type of thing.
There are real threats and people should take care, but "feeling threatened" by other people's statements is a unique & contagious disease of the extreme left wing. I say TOUGHEN UP. You have a mental health problem of FEELING THREATENED. You have a problem, not the world!
Our 2nd relief aircraft on its way to India!
@Salesforce
and
@vkhosla
partnered with
@GiveIndia
to deliver this 2nd plane of much needed oxygen concentrators. Our hearts continue to be with our brothers & sisters in India. May they all be protected, healed, & blessed! ❤️🇮🇳🙏
Rie Kudan, who won Japan’s top literary prize, said ChatGPT wrote about 5% of her novel ‘Tokyo-to Dojo-to’ (Sympathy Tower Tokyo). She acknowledged that it helped unlock her potential. The techno pessimist hate this. I, as an optimist, love it for the human potential it unlocks
Exactly why I say 90% of VCs add no value. A few of us do work 80 hrs per week and enable new things to be done that might not get done otherwise, like fusion, public transit ... but more agree than not with you. It's why in 40 yrs I've never called myself a venture capitalist.
investing is an amazing very-part-time job, and (at least for me) a soul-sucking full-time job.
BUT
those mountains in aspen aren’t gonna ski themselves, that party in saint-tropez isn’t gonna enjoy itself, that kiteboard on necker island needs someone to fly it, etc etc etc.
Totally agree. Besides if you haven’t gone thru the entrepreneurial process you don’t have empathy for founders and haven’t earned the right to advise entrepreneurs as a board member.
@nealkhosla
I tell people who want to get into venture capital to go start a startup instead. You'll get a lot more respect from VCs if you come in from that direction. And if you do it well enough you won't have to become a VC after all.
I’d trust
@sama
ethics and his integrity in balancing everyone’s interests, and presiding over a power tool like
@OpenAI
over ALL other prominent people in tech, business, Hollywood, politics, or the nonprofit sector on par with my trust in Prof Yunnus. Haters will be haters but…
To restrict AI from training on copyrighted material would have no precedent in how other forms of intelligence that came before AI, train.
There are no authors of copyrighted material that did not learn from copyrighted works, be it in manuscripts, art or music. You can't…
Wow! This is what "tech" is and not what media defines it as from their narrow self-centered "what affects media" perspective. Yes it is that too but...
We have known
@sama
since the early days of
@OpenAI
and fully support him and the company. These lawsuits are a massive distraction from the goals of getting to AGI and its benefits. Yet, even with all these hurdles, especially given this week, Sam, Greg and team have pushed…
Google, Microsoft, Adobe, IBM, Palo Alto Networks, and now Twitter run by CEOs who grew up in India. Wonderful to watch the amazing success of Indians in the technology world and a good reminder of the opportunity America offers to immigrants. 🇮🇳🇺🇸 (Congrats,
@paraga
!)
When immigration starts to exceed natural births in a country we need to do something fast and simple. Why not an amendment that changes "you have to be on US soil to apply for asylum" to "you have to be in or near your home country to apply for asylum" & ONLY this language.…
Expertise will be very close to free in a GPT5 or 6 world. In a departure from what has been the case, and what I've long advocated for by way of promoting STEM majors etc, more education for the population won't actually help employability in this post-AI world. There will be…
I deeply regret my participation in the board's actions. I never intended to harm OpenAI. I love everything we've built together and I will do everything I can to reunite the company.
No large practical innovation has been done by experts. Not knowing, experimentation, fast learning & relying on necessity as mother of invention & creativity allows one to do things others thought impossible helps. Deep experts know all these reasons to not attempt it. Optimism!
It keeps surprising me how much easier it is to do difficult things when you're ignorant of what you'll have to do (not just the difficulties you'll face, but the sheer number of steps that will be involved)
We offer "no terms" by not using our LP's capital. Personal loans going at our borrowing cost to our companies. We are covering those firms that can't because of their structure or are small. Need other LARGE VC firms to also step up, especially those taking home millions in fees
@sama
I’m offering 1/2 of our last check on a SAFE with last round terms. Can’t really offer “no terms” cash since investors money, but I agree with the message
“Make every detail perfect and limit the number of details to perfect.”—Jack Dorsey
@jack
. Love such clarity. More powerful than pragmatists will ever recognize
I will be coordinating grants and sourcing thru
@GiveIndia
@atulsatija
. Please make your requests to them directly and please contribute to their efforts too. The needs are large.
Resume advice: Optimize it for algorithms! Use short, descriptive sentences to help an AI parse your résumé, Siegel says. Clearly list your skills. “You want to be declarative and quantitative, because software is trying to decide whether you will be put in front of a human”
As to
@OpenAI
's structure being constantly referred to as odd, "Tata Trusts" are a group of public charities by the Tata family members in India. These trusts are non-profit entities, and they play a significant role in the governance and ownership of the Tata Group, which is…
Great work by
@10BedICU
in putting 200+ tele-ICUs in remote districts in India, all operational and connected to 11 regional expertise centers or "hubs" for people who had no access to an ICU during COVID. Now they can permanently have nearby ICU access. Goal is to get to all 700…
80% of 80% of all economically valuable jobs will be capable of being done by AI.
Years ago I asked -- to the consternation of many -- whether we needed doctors.
Then I asked whether we needed teachers.
High time we ask whether we need financial analysts, bankers, traders,…
Only a moron would equate a Trump ban to becoming like China. Besides private companies can have whatever terms of service. This is not state censorship. Besides ONLY people placing little value on ethics can support Trump. A bunch of people with low values
Today marks a sad and shameful chapter in our nation’s history. Those responsible for this insurrection should be held to account, and we must complete the transition to President-elect Biden’s administration. It’s especially when they are challenged that our ideals matter most.
Admirable that you can talk about it. Time to forgive, forget and move on for everyone. Now I wish the rest of the board would do that. WS the board meeting even legal? Noticed properly?
I deeply regret my participation in the board's actions. I never intended to harm OpenAI. I love everything we've built together and I will do everything I can to reunite the company.
"almost 98% of people in the world will try to pull [your ambition back] and say 'seems a little bit too crazy, a little bit too out there, a little bit too ambitious"
Education loans should be based on ability to repay based on actuarial tables showing repayment rates by majors and income projections by major. Otherwise it is bad for the borrower who ends up in lifetime debt and bad for the lender.
#1
@elonmusk
said “Vinod doesn’t know what he is talking about”! I probably don’t but can you explain
#2
-
#15
? If I don't know, can you then correct the record in this thread?
Our SPAC’s are multi-year, not quick flip type of investments. I’d caution retail investors against investing in these SPAC’s. These are risky long term bets where technology risks, competition and projection risks are very real and highly variable.
Academics like
@RBReich
are clueless about the risks these entrepreneurs take, the courage and intuition, & the willingness to fail and try again that entrepreneurs bring. Innovation-based societal progress depends on these folks, not pontificators.
@elonmusk
@RBReich
He's wrong about Gates and Bezos too. (Microsoft was already a dominant player in microcomputer software when IBM chose them, and Bezos, who had just left D. E. Shaw, could easily have gotten that $250k from his friends in finance.)
In 1982 Sun Microsystems required every employee with a desk to use email. Remember being ridiculed by my former MBA classmates at a fun dinner in NYC for putting my email on my business card! My response: Grandma will have email some day!
Britain’s prime minister did not have an email account until 2003. Modernisation was a vast, urgent and difficult task, and one for which the civil service was wholly unprepared.
The decades since have been littered with costly disasters 👇
And
@pmarca
would you open source the manhattan project? This one is more serious for national security. We are in a tech economic war with China and AI that is a must win. This is exactly what patriotism is about, not slogans.
Much has been said about
@OpenAI
's corp structure. Many European companies, Ikea, Bosch, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Bertelsmann Foundation, Carlsberg Foundation etc have similar relationships between for profits and non-profits. Nothing wrong with the best of both worlds. Just…
Wow!!!!
OpenAI’s new interim CEO Emmett Shear has used X to post unfiltered thoughts on sexuality and criticize his new company’s biggest backer, Microsoft via
@technology
At a hackathon where a winner is a “nontechnical” PM and her work — powered by Replit + AI — is more technically impressive than teams of engineers! Was surprised at first but it struck me that PMs must be exceptional prompting, afterall that *is* their job.
Amazingly nonsensical views from someone who hasn’t done anything material except pontificate. They have no notion of how to help the have nots. Anand should try moving to a socialist state. The current system needs radical updates not revolution.
In twenty years we'll realize that Covid woke the world up to the danger of having supply chains controlled by China and this benefit alone outweighed the massive human tragedy of the pandemic
Do we eliminate art classes because of the few kids who are not good at art? Only do reading for the kids at the lowest level? Go with the lowest common denominator for all areas? Though equity is a great goal the silliness of this interpretation of equity is colossally bad
In the name of “equity”, California DOE’s 2021 Mathematics Framework attacks the idea of gifted students and eliminates opportunities for accelerated math.
- no grouping students by ability
- no Algebra for 8th graders
- no Calculus for high schoolers
For years, student loan borrowers haven't received forgiveness under their Income-Driven Repayment plans despite making payments for over 20 years.
I'm determined to fix it.
Today, thanks to my Administration's actions, 804,000 borrowers will start to see their debt cancelled.
Can't find an example of major innovation where experts who knew too much made change happen! Amazon vs Walmart, Tesla vs GM, Spacex vs. Lockheed, Twitter/Youtube/FB vs media, Genentech vs pharma, AirBnB vs hotels, Uber vs. taxis,... Experts can explain "why not" instead of "why"
In many different fields, outsiders overestimate the value of ideas and underestimate the difficulties of execution.
So it's probably a good strategy for learning about any new field to ask "why is execution harder than it seems to outsiders?"
Would any reasonably sized country bet on a foreign country's AI (which can be revoked by sanctions!) for its national security? We invested in
@SarvamAI
for India and
@SakanaAILabs
for Japan. And each country needs to encourage and train it's own regional talent through…
@AravSrinivas
@vkhosla
Does India need its own LLM though? Broad based enough LLMs like ChatGPT or LLaMA, ie ones with enough data, can reason around cultural differences given the correct context . Given that this diversity is possible within any singular LLM itself, I believe it means that countries…
It's time lower taxes not be key criteria for ethical folks. Sharing the benefits of capitalism is not terrible. Capitalism is by permission of democracy. Let's preserve these benefits by sharing a little more broadly. Inequality may be the largest problem in our society today
I'd argue with need for domain expertise. FB/Youtube/TWTR/NFLX had none in media, Tesla/Waymo in Autos? Rocketlab/SpaceX in space? AMZN in retail? AirBnB in hotels? Uber in transportation? Expertise is best hired or it misdirects to extrapolating the past vs. inventing the future
Capitalism is more efficient at achieving efficiency but inefficient at social goal setting; Socialism is efficient at goal setting but sucks at execution efficiency. Balancing social goals & efficiency is key. Capitalism is by permission of democracy; permission can be revoked!
Agree! If you don’t count public universities, public research (which created the internet, gps, touchscreens, crispr, mrna vaccines like the covid vax), public infrastructure, public healthcare (seniors, veterans, your free covid vax), public schooling … socialism totally sucks
Probably an underestimate. In less than ten years each American will have a dozen or more AI agents constantly running around the net with AI that is 10x more powerful. Huge increase in per capita consumption of electricity. Add the consumption of electricity by EV's and we will…
Defending Kiev and trying to retake Crimea is the same thing EXACTLY. Standing up to the thug Putin is key to having values rather than just self-interest. And it is in our longer-term self-interest too.
Two very distinct phases to this war:
1. War for Democracy - defending Kiev.
2. War against Democracy - attacking Crimea.
The US accomplished something with
#1
. It should not support
#2
.
> be Vinod Khosla
> spawn in India, parents want you to join the army
> fall in love with entrepreneurship instead after reading about Andy Grove immigrating to the US and starting Intel
> start the first ever programming club at IIT (early signs of crackedness developing)
> get…
To reinforce this I had my calciums core done at age 30, 38 yrs ago! No doctor would take action. Because of general fitness (hiking & skiing) and despite diabetes (I was told insulin is my future before age 45! I am mostly still only, marginally diabetic, more reversed than…
@Jeff_Burke14
@theallinpod
Nope. Stay fit. Run, bike, swim regularly. Avoid excess carbs / sugars. Otherwise just have fun, be curious, love on fam/friends & smile. Optimism, community, & purpose are powerful medicines! 🚀🚀
This would be great if it were true. But so far,
👉Microsoft and OpenAI have not told us what is inside of Bing or GPT-4, or anything substantive about what they are trained on. That is not transparent, and makes it difficult for scientific community to asses risk
👉 These…
Block (
@Square
) users are putting their paychecks in
@CashApp
per . Likely this puts Block on path to be among the largets bank like institutions in number of account holders.
The field of AI was puttering around incrementally. I knew it would explode because that's where all the best minds were going. Some will say it was the transformer paper and computing at scale that catalyzed this moment. For me, it was about following the talent and the…
To be clear, the right wing has it's own mental health problem. They are so parochial anything beyond their nose threatens them. They cannot look at people as people. They just want their tribe and no one else. The MAGA disease is the worst thing that has happened to America in…
China's Xi is using AI to enhance his government’s totalitarian control—and he’s exporting this technology to regimes around the globe. And some want us to slow down and lose the most important war, the techno-economic war, of the next twenty years?