Senior Research Fellow SuFi Project
@UniWH
&
@UvACorpnet
| Global finance, age of passive investing, index providers, ESG, sustainable finance, decarbonization.
🚨 new paper out in
@RegGov_journal
with R. Jaspert &
@johannes_petry
on
#ESG
Mind the ESG capital allocation gap: The role of index providers, standard-setting, and “green” indices for the creation of sustainability impact
A 🧵on the main arguments:
🚨 Massive raid by 3000 police officers in Germany to stop right-wing conspiracy group that reportedly was planning a coup. Former soldiers, AfD politicians and a prince involved. Possible connections to Russia. 🚨
👀 crazy stuff.
BREAKING: Bundesweite Razzien gegen rechtsextreme Verschwörer-Gruppe, die einen Umsturz geplant haben soll. 52 Beschuldigte, 25 Festnahmen, 3000 Polizisten. Alle Hintergründe und um was es geht hier:
Spot-on by
@adam_tooze
🇩🇪 "required is an agreement among all mainstream parties to offer an alternative to the AfD with a concerted programme of public investment in housing & public services. If this requires circumvention of the debt brake, so be it."
BlackRock has replaced Allianz and Deutsche Bank as the most central shareholder in the ownership network of Germany Inc. Vanguard is now no. 2.
➡️Age of (passive) asset manager capitalism
Figure by
@dustin_voss
h/t
@PGolka
📕 New book "Trillions" by
@RobinWigg
of the
@FT
on the history of index funds and how this +$20 trillion industry is changing global finance (and maybe even capitalism too).
A book review 🧵infused with some of the relevant academic research. Let's go.
📢 Great new paper by Albina Gibadullina "Who owns and controls global capital? Uneven geographies of asset manager capitalism"
❗️ A wealth of data and 14 (!) figures on the Big Three and asset manager capitalism. I'll post a few key figures...🧵(1/6)
👀Must see in 🇩🇪!
Huge Thyssen steel mill site in Duisburg converted into a "landscape park" with playgrounds, climbing walls etc. You can climb the blast furnace (70 meters) and have a great view around. Even diving in the gasometer is possible. Unique and fantastic experience!
@Markus_Krall
Wer gegen Wärmepumpen ist, ist nichts anderes als technologiefeindlicher Ideologe.
Bei angemessener staatl. Förderung können die Bürger langfristig (!) viel Geld sparen und Firmen wie Bosch, Vaillant und Viessmann int. Spitzenpositionen einnehmen und damit auch Jobs sichern.
Out now in
@RIPEJournal
- the first IPE analysis of the three big index providers MSCI, S&P DJI, and FTSE Russell:
"Steering capital: the growing private authority of index providers in the age of passive asset management"
@johannes_petry
@UvACORPNET
1/n
Simple visualization of global foreign exchange turnover in 2016, data from the
@BIS_org
- global FX trading resembles a hub-and-spoke network with the US-dollar as the predominant global hub, extremely difficult for any competitor to challenge the USD -
@Wissing
Alle Experten sagen, dass dies so nicht stimmt.
Und die starke Betonung der Formulierung "Nicht mit Verboten und planwirtschaftlichen Instrumenten" ist einfach nur populistisch und peinlich.
The main function of US stock markets right now is to funnel capital from firms to investors (buybacks, dividends) - not to provide capital for large-scale investment to kickstart a green transition.
Financial Times editor: We need a new Marshall Plan on
#climate
. There’s too much to do, and given the urgency and the need to get the solution right, this isn’t a task for your favourite ESG-focused portfolio manager or the tech bros. The sheer scale of the physical…
@Wissing
@FridayForFuture
Der ausgebremste Umstieg auf EVs und das krampfhafte Festhalten an Scheinalternativen bzw. Nischentechn. wie eFuels und H2 werden höchstwahrscheinlich der Wirtschaft und dem zukünftigen Wohlstand in 🇩🇪schweren Schaden zufügen.
1/2
Out now in Economy and Society
@tandfonline
The New Permanent Universal Owners: Index funds, patient capital, and the distinction between feeble and forceful stewardship
@CDU
Herr Linnemann, nennen Sie mir eine Person von Rang und Namen in der Ökonomie die sagt, ein Staat müsse sich verhalten wie ein Haushalt, eine einzige!
Diese Aussage zeugt von absoluter Unkenntnis der modernen Wirtschaftswissenschaft.
New
@diisdk
working paper with
@johannes_petry
& Robin Jaspert on:
Mind the ESG gaps: transmission mechanisms and the governance of and by sustainable finance
Is it all
#greenwashing
or could
#ESG
have a sustainability impact?
🧵 with the key findings:
@maxmordhorst
Die hohen Steuersenkungen für Firmen unter Trump haben nicht zu höheren Investitionen in die Realwirtschaft geführt, sondern zu höheren Gewinnen, die via Dividenden & buybacks ausgeschüttet wurden.
Brauchen gezielten & starken Schub für diverse green technologies!
Excellent new paper by
@BJMbraun
on "American Asset Manager Capitalism" - a must read for people interested in corporate power and the new owners of the US political economy, clearly analyzing the fault lines of this new configuration:
@COdendahl
The German state is not the best in tech, for sure. But which other states are already able to directly transfer money to all of their citizens? - not via cheque please 😉
China is publishing less and less economic indicators - lending support to the view that China's economy is not growing fast anymore. Q3/2022 growth might be as low as 2.7%
Period of rapid catching up with the US already over?
@doctorow
Indeed, academic publishing is controlled by a small group of extremely profitable firms such as RELX, Informa and SpringerNature. If you want to publish open access papers you have to pay about $3000!
🚨Must read for all IPE people! 🚨
Just finished reading the crucial "wake-up call" by
@MatPaterson
on how climate change has been a blind spot for IPE and what research avenues seem urgent and useful.
@RIPEJournal
this paper needs to be open access!
🇺🇸💰 Trillion dollar question:
US portfolio holdings of foreign securities are the highest for which country? Japan, China, Germany? Another country?
What do you think? 🤔
...
Small 🧵about global finance. Let's go ⬇️
Great article by
@adam_tooze
: Tackling climate change is all about the specific political economies of key countries, much more than only about new technologies!
So much research to do for international political economy scholars in the coming years.
Great new paper by
@CalebNGriffin
on the ownership and voting power of the "Big Three" passive asset managers in the Fortune 250 companies. The Big Three now have the power to decide 50%+ of all ESG proposals!
@benjaminhaddad
The Anglosphere countries arguably have the closest relationship in matters of defence and intelligence cooperation (Five Eyes) possible between sovereign countries. This episode brings this reality to the fore again.
Thread: Anglo-Dutch oil giant Shell published its very first Tax Contribution Report with granular country by country numbers for revenues, profits and employees. Some very interesting information in there!
1/3
@Thomas_Bareiss
@CDU
@cducsubt
Erst viele Jahre lang gegen Erneuerbare & EVs sein, die Schwarze Null verehren und dann aber trotzdem laut meckern wenn solch eine Förderung eingestellt wird.
Chapeau, das erfordert schon eine extrem hohe geistige "Gelenkigkeit"! 😉
@MatthewKroenig
America's share of global GDP significantly understates the influence of the US in the global political economy. UK, AUS & CDN are closely integrated with the US. Plus, share of global finance is much greater.
@Axel_Bojanowski
Wenn Ihnen 10 Ärzte d Diagnose für Ihr Kind geben: langsam wachsender Krebs - könnte in 20-30 Jahren tödlich sein. Würden Sie dann bestehende Therapien einsetzen, den Krebs zu heilen oder würden Sie sagen: "Ach, würd schon nicht so schlimm werden. Wer weiß, ob das üb. Krebs ist."
@TaxJusticeNet
Two background readings for anyone interested in the role of the Cayman Islands in global finance: the classic "Small Place, Big Money" by Susan Roberts and "The anatomy of the Cayman Islands offshore financial center" by yours truly:
📢Jamie Morgan did a long interview with me for the Real-world Economics Review about
» Why Hedge Funds Matter «
Open access here:
We cover almost every aspect of the role of hedge funds in global finance. Below is an analogy how one can see HFs.
You might have guessed it by now if you are a global finance geek...
Tadaa 🎺🎉
The Cayman Islands - of course.
This tiny jurisdiction (not country!) under UK sovereignty has over $2.8 trillion of US portfolio holdings ($2tn equity!).
Why?
💥 Extremely excited to announce that I have been awarded an ERC Advanced+ Grant for my project "Global Finance Redux: ESG, Machine Learning, AI & Index Funds" (GFRESGMLAIIF)...
🧵 (1/7)
@Ronald_Sl
Sie erscheinen mir sehr Technologie-feindlich zu sein. Wärmepumpen sind eine exzellente Technologie um effizient und ohne CO2 zu heizen. Dazu wird endlich Fernwärme ausgebaut.
Was ist Ihr Vorschlag für Wärme in 🇩🇪? Alles so lassen? Neue Ölheizungen? Bitte sagen Sie!
@ianbremmer
Note that guy with the black anti-vaccine t-shirt. In Germany most pro-Putin people are also climate change deniers and anti covid vaccine. Is that everywhere the case?
@BerlinReporter
Mit Verlaub, aber wer immer noch nicht erkannt hat, dass EVs, Batterien (zB neue Natrium-Ionen! Redox-flow etc), Wärmepumpen & Elektrifizierung allg. die Zukunft sind, zerstört die langfristige Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der 🇩🇪 Wirtschaft! Efuels werden Nische bleiben (Flugverkehr).
@f_schaeffler
Warum bei wirklich Bedürftigen sparen anstatt Leute, die zB über €250.000 verdienen ein ganz bisschen höher zu besteuern? Oder völlig leistungsloses Erben besteuern - natürlich mit sehr hohem Freibetrag zB €2 Mio pro Person?
We are in the age of index investing. Evidence is emerging that this new era of finance led by the Global North will be more centralized. "Passive" funds invested in the Global South more likely to exit in crises than other sources of finance.
A mini-🧵:
@DrSimEvans
Not really a surprise but still pretty astonishing to see that the US & Canada with ~360mn people still have twice the historical CO2 emissions of China 🤯
In a perfect world the US would feel this moral obligation and start to act forcefully to avert the worst.
The Wealth Defence Industry: A Large-scale Study on Accountancy Firms as Profit Shifting Facilitators
Great new
@RIPEJournal
paper by
@LAjdacic
@UvACORPNET
&
@javiergb_com
on the Big Four accounting firms and aggressive tax planning strategies by MNCs.
Background reading on some key aspects of Cayman's outsized role in US and global finance below.
TL;DR: Cayman is integral part of Anglo-America (common law jurisdiction, law&accounting firms)
Cayman will remain a key node in global finance.
END. cheers
@microbear1
@emorwee
@PeteDominick
It's a good start but not nearly enough to mitigate climate change. Close all coal power plant and stop all methane emissions now would be crucial. We need politics to act now.
@AminSharaf
@NATO_Enthusiast
@ElliMabe
@Perowinger94
Das ist doch Unsinn. Das Abschalten der AKWs ist doch nicht die Ursache für Nullwachstum. Inwiefern "verzichtet" D auf Erdgas?
Das meiste was Sie anführen trifft doch zB auch auf NL und DK zu. Vieles was Sie schreiben riecht nach Ideologie - und nicht nach Rationalität.
@ChristophBeisl1
Ah 😱, in Frankreich gibt es bestimmt eine riesige Debatte über die "Abhängigkeit" von deutschem Strom und alle Medien machen total Panik wie in Deutschland, oder? Oder?
@Ash_2070
@COdendahl
Please relax. It was an honest question. German agencies can transfer to millions of people but not to ALL citizens. That was my point, to be educated my other people on the situation in other countries.
Fact check:
1) Deforestation & other land-use change account for >1/4 of CO2 emitted since 1750.
2) Agriculture & land-use change are responsible for ~1/4 of recent annual GHG emissions.
3) Keeping warming below 1.5C is impossible without changing food production & consumption.
@christianduerr
„Schuldenbremse ist für mich Angst vor der Freiheit, man unterstellt man könnte nicht selbst haushalten.“
@adam_tooze
Klimawandel, Digitalisierung, E-Mobilität, Infrastruktur. Es gibt sehr viel Investitionsbedarf. Schuldenbremse führt zu weniger Wachstum!
@scienceisstrat1
@Noahpinion
@erikbryn
@ylecun
@AlecStapp
@paulg
Arguably one key reason why UK is so light on R&D is that they chose financial services as the growth model for their economy. Not much R&D in finance tbh.
Canada so low due to quite large share of resource extraction and agriculture?
@BrianGitt
In what kind of fantasy world are you living?!? The costs of wind & solar are dropping massively. Even in Texas they roll out renewables quickly. Massive R&D in energy storage tech.
Have you seen the landscapes around oil wells? Way more destroyed than renewables ever could.
@UvACORPNET
wp out: The New Permanent Universal Owners: Index Funds, (Im)patient Capital, and the Claim of Long-termism. We provide novel findings on the combined ownership of the Big Three in 17 stock indexes from nine countries and analyze their voting behavior on buybacks.
China already has nearly half of all solar and wind built. And that means it will reach its own renewable goals in 2025, instead of 2030.
This is one reason why analysts are becoming more confident that China's emissions will peak soon.
@f_schaeffler
Ja genau! Habeck hat auch Schuld am Gaspreisschock, durch den Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine. Er hat auch Schuld, dass D so wenig in Infrastruktur inv hat seit 20 Jahren. Er hat eigentlich an überhaupt allem Schuld, oder?
Gott, ist Ihr Denken beschränkt!
@christophploss
Alle, wirklich alle Experten sagen, dass e-Fuels knapp und teuer bleiben werden und daher vor allem für den Flugverkehr benötigt werden (sagt auch der Lufthansa CEO). Oder evtl. für Schiffe.
EVs sind einfach extrem viel effizienter - wer das nicht einsehen will ist Ideologe!
@f_schaeffler
Leugnen Sie eigentlich den Klimawandel noch?
Frage für die kommenden Generationen, deren Freiheit massiv bedroht wird - wenn wir die Emissionen nicht schneller runterbringen.
@Markus_Krall
Ich kenne sehr viele mit mRNA Impfstoffen geimpfte Leute - jung und alt - und alle haben es gut vertragen. Die meisten hatten ein paar Tage Müdigkeit, eine Person hatte einige Wochen Müdigkeit. Niemand hat ernste Spätfolgen.
📢 Carbon bombs under the spotlight
Transparent data and visualization about the world's biggest fossil fuel extraction projects, and their links with companies and banks
A project led by two French nonprofits 👇
@BerlinReporter
@RenateKuenast
@HolzheuStefan
@CDU
Allein das Wort "Verbotsorgien" disqualifiziert Sie von jeder seriösen Diskussion!
Länder wie Dänemark lachen über uns, weil Leute wie Sie Wärmepumpen schlechtreden.
MAN aus Augsburg baut in DK eine riesen WP, die das gesamte Fernwärmenetz von Esbjerg versorgen wird!
Question for
#Finance
twitter: How will the financial system look like in 2030? A Huge passive index funds segment dominated by Vanguard & BlackRock and a "premium" segment in which elite hedge funds skim off profits using the best brain power coupled with AI & quantum computing?
Apparently I have become a Green Finance "Influencer" - whatever that means exactly.
What I do know is that A LOT of influencing still needs to be done to make finance truly green and sustainable.
@giulio_mattioli
It's a shame. When the "traffic light" coalition started I really had a tiny bit of hope that the FDP could push for modernization, technology, cutting unnecessary red tape etc. But all they do is playing this populist fossil fuel card. We're losing precious time to act 😡😣😢
@SaxoniaConserva
@Perowinger94
Das Wort "Endzeitsekte" disqualifiziert Sie von jeder seriösen Diskussion. Die Befunde der Klimawissenschaft zeigen ganz eindeutig, dass langfristig der Klimawandel sehr schwerwiegende Konsequenzen für die Menschheit haben wird.
My chapter on "The Rise of Institutional Investors" from the excellent forthcoming Routledge International Handbook of Financialization, edited by Phil Mader,
@DanMertens
&
@NataschaZwan
is now available on
@socarxiv
"A world with terminally declining oil demand has never been experienced before, but the growth era for fossil fuels is ending, as many producers, investors and forecasters are acknowledging."
@jainfamilyinst
@kmac
@70sBachchan
Pre-print of forthcoming paper in Economy and Society now at
@socarxiv
The new permanent universal owners: Index funds, patient capital, and the distinction between feeble and forceful stewardship
A brief thread:
(1/6)
A short thread showing a few figures from the brand-new 2020 Investment Company Fact Book:
Massive shift from actively managed funds ($1.7 trillion outflows) to passive index funds ($1.8 trillion inflows) continues in the US.
1/4
🤑📈📉🤑
Check out this brand new online tool for comparing how index funds by BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street have actually voted on ESG proposals at Annual General Meetings of US firms:
#ESG
#sustainablefinance
Profits per employee are a stunning US$228 million in Bermuda, US$29 million in the Bahamas and US$13 million in Switzerland! In the US Shell reports a profit of just US$100,000 per employee.
3/3
The UK is 2nd largest destination of US portfolio holdings with a massive $1.6tn - Canada
#3
with $1.5tn and Japan
#4
with $1.3tn (all large equity and debt holdings).
Data is from Treasury International Capital (TIC).
@_freidel
Herr Freidel, ich bitte Sie - als ob die paar jüngst abgesch. AKWs einen großen Unt. machen würden! Der Ausstieg wurde 2011 beschl.! Beklagen Sie sich bei Altmaier & Co, dass über 10 Jahre zu wenig in Wind&Solar investiert wurde. Für d Gaspreisschock kann Habeck auch nichts.
@energybants
Do you have any other topics than German nuclear reactors??
The speed of the roll-out of solar&wind is currently incr. significantly (should have been done 10 years ago). Wait 3-4 years and then check how electricity production looks like. Nuclear will remain off. Live with it!
💥 For the first time ever, the assets under management of a financial institution have passed the $10 trillion threshold! I.e. BlackRock now manages assets greater than the entire market capitalization of all listed firm in the 19 eurozone countries. 💥
The Cayman Islands is the domicile of choice for most US hedge funds (~$4.5tn AuM), which then invest back in US financial markets (and elsewhere). Also some private equity funds are domiciled there.
As you can see, US holdings in Cayman have been growing quite rapidly.
21/ Trillions is an excellent start but as
@BJMbraun
&
@adribuller
write: "The era of asset manager capitalism constitutes a new corporate governance regime whose implications for power & control in the wider economy we are only beginning to understand."
New: "The world's largest asset managers 2020" - a 🧵
AUM of the world’s top 500 managers increased by 14.8% in 2019 to $104.4 trillion.
The US continues to dominate with almost 60% of total AUM. Now 15 US asset managers in the Top 20, up from 13.
5/ A famous poster from the 1970s even claimed that index funds are "Un-American" because they did not even try to beat the market but merely replicated the average.
10/ Even more consequential was the launch of the first exchange traded fund or ETF by State Street in 1993. ETFs proved to be a key new investment technology that enabled giant "passive" asset managers, such as BlackRock. See this paper by
@BJMbraun
:
I'm not sure it's widely understood that we basically know how to decarbonize everything in the energy system now. There are areas & sectors where the solutions remain quite expensive, but we know how to bring down costs over time. Jets, ships, steel, concrete -- all known.
Important paper "The Common Ownership Trilemma" by
@joseazar
argues that it is impossible to achieve the following objectives simultaneously: (1) portfolio diversification, (2) shareholder representation, and (3) competition