1/ i am a recovering central banker who now works in crypto
i have a lot of appreciation for US policymakers worrying about risk in the financial system
crypto gets tons attention because it’s an easy target
but the real problems are so much bigger imo
1/ for many, the SVB debacle crystalized the relationship between money and credit
looking toward the future, it’s important we make sure people have access to digital money that’s free of credit risk
crypto has a vital role to play here👇
1/ we’re launching the
@paradigm
Policy Lab today to double down and broaden our policy push at a critical point in the national discourse in crypto policy
1/6 I’m thrilled to share that I have joined
@paradigm
as a Policy Associate.
@matthuang
,
@fehrsam
, and
@alanapalmedo
are building an incredibly impressive team that’s not afraid of running directly at the biggest challenges in crypto.
1/ in a new paper,
@AustinAdams10
,
@maherlatif_
, and i look at the electronification of finance by trying to imagine an AMM in 1700 AD with homing pigeons and paper stock certificates
takeaway: public blockchains let you do things you couldn’t previously do
1/ it’s great to see
@FinancialCmte
discussing stablecoins this week, as stablecoins are a critical part of future financial infrastructure
here are some principles all policymakers should bear in mind as they do their work 👇
15/ obv simplifying a lot here, but would like to see the big issues in traditional financial geopolitics tackled with similar vigor, creativity, and openness as crypto
most of all: clear strategic direction, bc it feels like we’re grasping at straws
/fin
2/ people want to hold USD “money” to store value and make payments
most are familiar with cash and bank deposits, but there’s actually a spectrum of assets (of varying quality) that act like money:
eurodollars, repo, commercial paper, etc.
14/ crypto is not perfect today, but everyday it is getting better as people internalize lessons from past experiences and build in the open w/ regulatory clarity
it’s rocky sometimes, but the direction of travel is toward progress
had a great time chatting about the past, present, and future of money with the
@BanklessHQ
team 🙏
no better time than now to peel back the layers on something many of us take for granted
PREMIERE:
We're asking the most Bankless question--what's money? 💸
Brendan (
@brendanpmalone
) has a unique perspective on money; he focused on crypto policy issues
@federalreserve
. Now he works
@paradigm
, a tech investment firm
What's the Moneyness Spectrum?
Let's find out 👇
1/ as the regulatory heat turns up on crypto, i challenge skeptics (and believers) to try to think of crypto as a pressure-relief valve that empowers smart people to fix broken things
13/ … 1) a small market overall, 2) skeptical of credit, 3) more transparent/predictable by design, and 4) risky in part because people want safe dollars on-chain, but they can’t have them
6/ we saw this in 2008-09, which was as much about shadow banking and financial plumbing as it was about subprime housing and complex derivatives
and the same in 2020 w/ COVID
1/ i coded up a dashboard that displays mint/burn events for the top 5 fiat-backed stablecoins for 2017-2022: USDC, USDT, BUSD, USDP, and GUSD
*best viewed on desktop
7/ in times of crisis, people want to be able to freely convert whatever they are holding into something safer on the spectrum
sadly, sometimes market liquidity isn’t there
so the Fed comes to save the day (and kicks the can down the road re: the bigger problem)
3/ this is what people are talking about when they reference the “shadow banking” system:
money moving around the financial system OUTSIDE of traditional banks (i.e., primarily in non-banks)
4/ some amount of shadow banking activity is good — it allows money supply to be more reactive and expand/contract with economic activity, which helps fuel economic growth
5/ at the same time, our regulatory/political apparatus and the underlying tech systems weren’t really designed for a system this large, opaque, and multi-dimensional
8/ the core issue is that people want (safe) dollars in places they can’t have them — due to technical, institutional, or geopolitical reasons — so
- sovereigns hold USTs
- hedge funds and HRTs use repo
- the crypto economy has stables
- etc
2/ in addition to our regular legal writing + policy research and our Policy Council, v1 of the Lab will ship two new programs:
- an academic fellowship for basic policy and legal research
- a “bug bounty” style program for discrete policy questions (need your help here, anon)
my hot take is that people probably spend too much time worrying about CBDC when there are far more ubiquitous and pernicious affronts to privacy and economic freedom here *today*
9/ so, where are we now? since 2008-09 the treasury market has gotten significantly larger, more fragile, and more complex
banks have even more restrictions on creating deposits, etc.
demand for safe assets skyrocketing
10/ on top of that, the geopolitical landscape has changed DRAMATICALLY:
- US-China decoupling
- US sanctions and seizure of Russian USD assets
- KSA and others reducing UST holdings
- etc.
1/ the traditional “back office” at banks + corporates is going to need a mega revamp in order to adapt to structural changes when more and more assets go on-chain
it needs to happen fast, because institutional crypto adoption is at the doorstep
Crypto-native policy groups are critical to crypto reaching it's full potential.
Proud to have the Policy Lab support
@TeamPOSA
, which is helping to ensure that PoS networks and the ecosystems that support them continue to thrive.
🫡
Today we are proud to announce our updated Staking Industry Principles & call on all builders, founders, & technologists in the staking space to align with them to enhance consumer protection, foster responsible innovation, & support the sustainable growth of PoS networks.
👇🧵
In a world where humans routinely live to 130+ yrs, not having to trust institutions becomes increasingly important
The longer you live, the more likely it is that you’ll live during a time of significant institutional upheaval
Probably even more true for the next 50-100 years
one enduring legacy of crypto will be the mainstreaming of anons as public intellectuals
already seeing it more and more often in non-crypto online spaces
A little over a month ago,
@RSSH273
and
@brendanpmalone
launched the
@paradigm
Policy Lab to address the biggest policy challenges in crypto
In this podcast, Rodrigo and Brendan share insights on history, research and progress in the policy arena
4/ just consider the hundreds of
@DuneAnalytics
wizards and independent researchers like
@zachxbt
and imagine if we could enlist them to answer earnest questions from policymakers using real data
with AI increasingly approaching or exceeding human capabilities, it is frankly appalling for elon and twitter to be discriminating against our spambot compatriots who simply wish to provide the fastest and easiest metamask support
“That said, it is also possible that technological progress may solidify the dominant role of the dollar. For example, about 99 percent of stablecoin market capitalization is linked to the U.S. dollar, implying that crypto assets are de facto traded in U.S. dollars.”
"how do we face the rising tide of authoritarianism in a way that is not just saying, well, democracy is better, so we win? ... i think it means going back to neglected traditions in the American system, in particular, economic decentralization."
flash loan arbitrage is like crypto’s version of the Treasury basis trade
however, unlike the basis which relies on mass leverage in an opaque part of fincancr, flash loans are:
- contained to the transaction where the arb happens
- available (and visible) to anyone
Excited to share a new searching guide from ⚡️🤖
Ep. 2 — Flash loan arbitrage
We’ll cover
1. Creating a MEV-Share bot
2. How arb math *actually* works
3. The magic of flash loans
Sad to hear about Charlie Munger.
My first job out of college had me working out of the offices of the Buffett Foundation, in the same building as Berkshire on Farnam Street in Omaha.
My work was unrelated to anything Charlie did, but his approach to thinking loomed large.
Exciting news! Together with more than a dozen major financial institutions, we’ve successfully shown how the
#Swift
network can facilitate the transfer of tokenised assets across multiple public & private
#blockchains
.
𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲:
5/ we have a long road ahead, but thankfully the crypto community is full of gigachads and good actors who genuinely care about doing what's best for the long-term success of crypto
7/ it's refreshing to operate in an environment where you feel like you can do something, and if you're interested in math/science/history/geopolitics/finance/whatever, crypto probably has something for you to do
6/ and they don’t require a dramatic overhaul of our current system a la CBDC or unlimited deposit insurance
➡️the coexistence of crypto and fiat can be mutually reinforcing and add a layer of discipline to both
5/ but there are other ways to do that…
- crypto is hard digital money that can be held with no credit risk
- well-designed stablecoins can be safer than bank deposits
these don’t require complicated credit analysis to price
9/ we are hoping to use this piece (link below) as a jumping off point for a series exploring how we can use blockchains to build a financial system that works for more people
The United States Postal Service is seeking approval to hike the price of first-class mail stamps to 66 cents from 63 cents to offset the rise in inflation.
If approved, it would take effect July 9.
i know the cool thing is to call this place a toxic cesspool, but i’m really grateful for everything it has brought me
i was in college from 2007-11 right as it hit inflection and have been learning/growing here ever since
3/ i spent years thinking about broken parts of the traditional financial system that we just accept as broken because there are too many barriers to fixing them
good ideas get discounted because they come from outsiders
online discovery feels increasingly centralized/throttled
it used to be a lot easier to accidentally wander into weird and cool corners of the internet
there was a 2-3 year period where i made a majority of the graphics that went into FRB and BIS crypto-adjacent reports
absolutely heinous abuse of Word/SmartArt
thinking about commissioning
@_yangyou
and
@achalvs
for a formal roast
1/ one thing that feels understudied in crypto is what economic intuition tells us about the expected average “size” of crypto companies
which might explain some of the differences between the US and other jurisdictions?
3/ It still surprises me when I read an academic/policy paper on crypto and the only data cited is price or volume from a third-party aggregator. There’s so much on-chain data available!
1/ Having trouble keeping track of the deliverables from Biden’s crypto Executive Order?
I made simple website that has everything you need from E.O. 14067 in one place:
The US had its credit rating cut one step to AA+ from the top ranking of AAA by Fitch Ratings, echoing a move made more than a decade ago by S&P in 2011.
@annmarie
and
@JMathieuReports
break down how the chaos in Washington pushed Wall Street
6/ Eventually, I hope to share some of the datasets I��m creating for open use, so that any interested party in government/academia can conduct research on their own.
Forking is one of the most important decentralization primitives in crypto
Traditional corporations tend towards M/A = concentration/centralization over time
Community cleavage in crypto via forks = diffusion over time
Ability to exit is critical
I hope Cosmos does fork. For too long its been impossible for the chain and community to move forward because it was being pulled in multiple directions. A separation here will do everyone a lot of good.