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Alex Imas Profile
Alex Imas

@alexolegimas

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551
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474
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Professor at @ChicagoBooth

Joined February 2024
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
Aaaaand I'm back (but lost all my followers). What did I miss?
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
What puzzles me about the social media debate is why our null hypothesis/prior should be that there is no effect. These platforms are literally A/B tested to maximize user lock-in, addiction, and social comparison. This is pretty well known. 1/5
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
Why do people sometimes seem to overweigh rare events, and other times ignore them? Why do those w/ access to same information end up with different beliefs about the risk they face? We present model + evidence for how people perceive uncertainty🧵1/9
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
Needless to say, I would not be here without Danny Kahneman. I was just teaching prospect theory last week to a whole new generation of students. This week I was teaching his 1973 book on Attention and Effort. A true intellectual giant. May his memory be a blessing זכרונה לברכה
@CassSunstein
Cass Sunstein
2 months
On a day of unfathomable grief, with the loss of Danny Kahneman, here's a happy moment. He was so, so, so happy when @R_Thaler got the Nobel.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
People need to start saying “I don’t know” a lot more.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
27 days
Friends don't let friends use LLMs for literature reviews. Good lord, none of these are real papers.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
We also know that young people are willing to pay significant amounts of money for these platforms to *not exist in the first place.* ("When Product Markets Become Collective Traps: The Case of Social Media")
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
Kind of feels like the smoking debate from the 70s/80s, where despite associations and a compelling mechanism, lack of strong causal studies—>”no effect” null. 5/5
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
Unless we put zero weight on decades of social/clinical psychology/econ research on these topics, our null/prior should be a concern-worthy effect. (If this is what we want to, fine, but then what is the point of social science if not to inform out-of-sample priors?) 3/5
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
One of the first thing you realize as an immigrant from almost anywhere is that American strawberries look amazing but taste like wet cardboard.
@cremieuxrecueil
Crémieux
1 month
Strawberry production in both Europe (gray) and America (blue) has skyrocketed. Europe produced more strawberries by planting way more acres. America produced more strawberries without planting way more acres. Instead, America made a better strawberry.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
In this case, a lack of good studies should lead us to maintain a null/prior (a concern-worthy effect) rather than make us think that there are no psychological effects of social media, especially in groups that are still developing (young people). 4/5
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
I’ve seen several posts critiquing methods—on lack of power, potential issues w research design. As psych/Econs, we are trained to do this, and this is good! But I think we are less trained to evaluate single studies from a policy perspective. 1/3
@H_Sjastad
Hallgeir Sjåstad
22 days
Can smartphone usage at school negatively affect learning and well-being? In an event study conducted by Sara Abrahamsson, who graduated from NHH/FAIR last year, she found that a smartphone ban had positive effects on mental health, bullying, and grades.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
Re-upping this amazing thread by @Undercoverhist on the history of what rationality means in economics. To be fair, defining rationality precisely is exactly what allowed it to be overturned by Kahneman/Tversky/Allais/co. So kudos to Samuelson/Savage and co.
@Undercoverhist
Beatrice Cherrier
5 years
1/The 2 final @Bachelor_X debates were on “Are Economic Agents Rational?” so here’s a thread on how economists have defined rationality across 20th century. Focus is on 2 debates: status of expected utility theory (EUT) in 50s & of Kahneman & Tversky’s results in 70s to 90s
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
30 days
This paper is great. Besides proposing a new explanation for endowment effect—cautious utility, a mechanism with independent empirical support—the model can explain the otherwise puzzling lack-of relationship between WTA and WTP.
@koenfucius
Koenfucius 🔍
1 month
Is the endowment effect not a consequence of loss aversion? Cautious Utility—a new model—suggests it can arise from uncertainty about tradeoffs, and yields an endowment effect even if losses and gains are treated symmetrically: via coauthor @pietroortoleva
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
@dggoldst These PMs are mandated by the endowment to be diversified into sectors that earned well below the S&P, so this performance is actually pretty impressive.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
You either die a hero or live long enough to become the villain (cutting the crust off your kids’ bread)
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
25 days
Really interesting paper. There is long history of using agent-based modeling/simulation in social science, both for theory test and generation (eg Schelling, SFI has great faculty, as does CMU). This paper shows how to leverage LLMs + AI to significantly improve this process.
@johnjhorton
John Horton
2 months
New working paper by @BenSManning & @Kehang_Zhu that & I’m super excited about
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
👇👇👇
@H_Sjastad
Hallgeir Sjåstad
22 days
Can smartphone usage at school negatively affect learning and well-being? In an event study conducted by Sara Abrahamsson, who graduated from NHH/FAIR last year, she found that a smartphone ban had positive effects on mental health, bullying, and grades.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
Back at the absolutely best bar in the US, with some of my favorite people. IYKYK
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
This is a very cool paper.
@RevEconStudies
The Review of Economic Studies
1 month
Do we hold others responsible for their choices even when these choices have been shaped by unfair unequal circumstances? Yes, we do, suggests "Shallow Meritocracy" from Peter Andre ( @ptr_andre ), recently accepted at REStud.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
Maybe the study flaws are significant enough where the answers to 1) is no. But it seems to me that there should be more of this type of evaluation in the discourse as well. PS I think the critiques are super valuable. This is not a subtweet!
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
Here, evaluation is a bit different. Questions such as: 1) Did this study move my priors in light of prior work? 2) Should there be deference to status quo. If smartphones were introduced now, would we allow them in schools? are relevant. 2/3
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
Miami University must have at least one student every year who gets off a flight and is like, wtf.
@James_S_Murphy
James S Murphy
2 months
PennWest California and Miami University feel your pain.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
@kearney_melissa 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏 The online discourse reminds me of the quote that banning common sense from science will result in research failure.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
LA has such an awesome behavioral/experimental Econ community. Also the best food.
@KirbyKNielsen
Kirby Nielsen
3 months
I won the most whimsical sweater award at a workshop today :) career highlight. Also got to hear great talks by @cmoncap , @brian_jabarian , @KrajbichLab , and @IsabelleBrocas . Thanks to @CFCamerer for organizing. It’s exciting to feel the experimental buzz around LA!
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
Very cool new paper by @avicgoldfarb and Xiao on behavioral firms. Inexperienced bar owners overreact to transitory shocks and exit too early, whereas more experienced owners know to “weather the storm”. Results implicate limited attention as the driver
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
That’s because VS made sure the assumptions held in the experiment (induced value, full information, zero uncertainty). I run the same experiments as Smith in class: breaking even one of those assumptions (eg replace induced value w/ real goods) and everything breaks down.
@besttrousers
Matt Darling 🌐🏗️
2 months
And yet, as Vernon Smith showed in the 1970s, they do.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
19 days
People pay much more attention to information about things that they own, and that changes how and what they end up learning. Great clip from Steve Jobs. We have a paper providing evidence: Ungated:
@historyinmemes
Historic Vids
21 days
Steve Jobs on consulting
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
@andre_quentin The fact that those p values aren’t clustered gives me more confidence in the results not less (eg everything is around .024 or something). If we are being Bayesian here, and your prior was no effect, this set of results together should lead you to update quite a bit.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
@andre_quentin But the analysis is on the school level and it's clearly underpowered to find a precisely estimated effect. Even a very large effect would produce the distribution of p values observed in the paper (it's an event study, not an RCT). My comment was using the Bayesian perspective.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
28 days
@steve_tadelis @chris_petsko Fun fact: I was reviewing paper for top journal that used annual data. I pointed out there was similar paper using daily data + better identification strategy. Authors responded saying annual data was better because less noisy. Editor agreed, paper was published 🤯
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
25 days
Prediction: unless industry moves quickly with some sort of verification/watermarking, better AI models will lead to disengagement from digital spaces. Once common prior that content may be fake and difficult/impossible to verify, people will just stop engaging/consuming it
@rao2z
Subbarao Kambhampati (కంభంపాటి సుబ్బారావు)
25 days
Reread it after an eternity--and still won't change much.. ICYMI 👇 👉
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
My new favorite bar (outside of Pittsburgh) has Miller high life syrup and a malort cocktail. 🙏🙏🙏
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
Me at the Wendy’s drive through at 4am
@IGN
IGN
3 months
A dynamic pricing model, similar to Uber's surge pricing, is being prepared by Wendy's. The price of items may change over the course of the day depending on the demand, with a lunch rush order costing more than "off-peak" hours.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
19 days
A useful graphic for the "TikTok is free speech" crowd
@Noahpinion
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦
20 days
China's government is censoring what videos Americans can post on TikTok.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
What a great resource from @JakeMGrumbach in response to my previous post. "Learning From Biased Research Designs" from @anthlittle and @TomPepinsky . Link below.
@JakeMGrumbach
Jake M. Grumbach
22 days
@alexolegimas Great points. But my one quibble is even if it’s severely biased, we can still learn from it—so the answer to 1) should almost never be no
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
@CFCamerer @ben_golub You’ll like this paper “Behavioral Foundations of Model Mispecification”. It links model mispecification lit to the behavioral approach of modeling specific heuristics/biases, so you can use results of former to study learning outcomes of latter
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
Cool new paper on (machine) learning from weak signals.
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@BeckerFriedman
Becker Friedman Institute for Economics
2 months
ICYMI: New working paper, "Can Machines Learn Weak Signals?," by @ChicagoBooth 's @dachxiu and Zhouyu Shen.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
28 days
@lakens Fun fact: I was reviewing paper for top journal that used annual data. I pointed out there was similar paper using daily data + better identification strategy. Authors responded saying annual data was better because less noisy. Editor agreed, paper was published 🤯
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
@andre_quentin There are two sources of uncertainty, model-uncertainty (here: researcher degree-freedom, hence my point on lack of clustering) and within-model-uncertainty (here: effect of smartphone use). Since effects are sizable and none point in opposite direction, you should update prior.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
Who will watch the watchers of the algorithms? The algorithms. Very cool paper.
@_ToFeWe
Tobias Werner
2 months
How do humans interact with pricing algorithms within firms❓ We explore this question using two large-scale field experiments in collaboration with @ZalandoTech in a new WP. This work is a collaboration with Tobias Huelden, @VJascisens and @LarsRoemheld . 🧵Thread below.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
25 days
Just to be clear, @BenSManning @Kehang_Zhu and @johnjhorton 's methods can potentially lead to *big* improvements--potentially paradigm-shifting ones--to the agent-based method. But I'm not an expert in this space.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
This is pretty amazing 😝 From @rao2z ’s excellent piece
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
Take two assets. In one case, information about the outcomes (y axis) in each state (x axis) is presented simultaneously (left fig); in other case, person sees outcomes of every state one by one (right fig).
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
@R_Thaler @akbarpour_ @steve_tadelis @ben_golub @jasondhartline I think you guys need a behavioral economics component.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
Very cool paper. TL;DR: cognitive noise is important for explaining forecasting data and complicates the interpretation of forecasts through the lens of bias.
@timdesilva
Tim de Silva
5 months
🎉 Thrilled that my paper with @dthesmar is forthcoming in the Review of Financial Studies @SFSjournals . A special moment for me since this was my first project in the PhD and it's my first publication! Paper: A summary 🧵 ⬇️⬇️⬇️
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
👇👇👇
@BeckerFriedman
Becker Friedman Institute for Economics
2 months
64% of TikTok users would be better off if the app didn't exist. TikTok users would pay $28 to have others, including themselves, delete their accounts . @UChi_Economics ' Leonardo Bursztyn, Benjamin Handel, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, & Christopher Roth
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@page_eco @KirbyKNielsen @mboudry Would this include the true underlying present value of publicly traded companies 😝
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
Yes! When seeing info simultaneously people are overoptimistic & choose the asset that mostly underperforms but exhibits large & unlikely outperformance (U); they select the consistently outperforming asset (F) when learning the same info sequentially. A 40% preference reversal!
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
@Andrew___Baker "you'd have to pay me millions to give up seasonal farm to table" and "i don't think npr is that liberal" are pretty consistent statements 😚
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
25 days
The really cool part, to me, is how the process of simulating and running the experiment actually improves the model's inference.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
@jondr44 @Undercoverhist @elie_tamer I like this Jonathan. I’m not an econometrician but use Manski’s conceptual insights a lot in my work. Our Inaccurate Statistical Discrimination paper can be interpreted as Manski’s idea that preferences can’t be identified when rational expectations (strong assumption) fails
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
We show that perceptions of uncertainty depend critically on the interaction between cognitive constraints (memory & attention) and the learning environment---whether information is presented sequentially or simultaneously.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
20 days
Really nice summary of recent work on the potential impact of generative AI on productivity and the labor force.
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@erikbryn
Erik Brynjolfsson
20 days
Here's a short summary of the Economics of Generative AI that @Danielle__Li and I wrote for the @nberpubs
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
Brilliant paper.
@_alice_evans
Alice Evans
3 months
39% of age-eligible US scientists enlisted in the draft. A 10% increase in exposure to enlistment leads to a 42% increase in the number of female entrants. More women in STEM led to more female inventors. So the binding constraint is fewer in physical sciences @PMoserEcon
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
👀👀👀💪💪💪 Congrats to all!
@gk_ben
Benedict Guttman-Kenney
2 months
It’s official. @chicagobooth Econ PhD had a great year! 💪💪💪🥳🥳🥳 My cohort was the first of larger cohorts. Booth Econ PhD previously only had 0, 1, 2 students a year. Booth Finance and other well-established Booth programs placed great as always:
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
@squig @GordPennycook What I don’t understand is why our null hypothesis/priors should be that there is no effect. These are platforms a/b tested to maximize lock in, addiction, and social comparison. Unless we put zero weight on decades of social/clinical psych, the null should be sizable effect.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
When learning from simultaneous information (e.g. a price chart), limited attention is drawn to rare but salient events, which leads people to overweight those states. When learning the same information sequentially, imperfect recall leads people to underweight those same states
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
This is a really interesting study.
@DanMedvedev6
Dan Medvedev
1 month
Our paper with Josh Jackson on whether global values have converged over the last 40 years is out: . We find that globalization and rising wealth did not result in uniform acceptance of 'Western values,' such as support for abortion and gay rights.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
This result is consistent with the so-called ``description-experience’’ gap, but we show that it's entirely driven by interaction of attention&memory with the learning environment. Manipulating these factors completely eliminates the gap, and even reverses it (see previous fig).
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
This reply is mostly in jest to @page_eco 's q on choice to correct one's beliefs or not. I think this will depend on beliefs about cost/benefit of holding wrong beliefs. Most ppl will go through great lengths to hold correct beliefs if they think there is instrumental benefit.
@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@page_eco @KirbyKNielsen @mboudry Would this include the true underlying present value of publicly traded companies 😝
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
@SandroAmbuehl I think those models had the most accumulated evidence before alternatives were suggested. I would not call this first mover advantage as many alternative behavioral time/social pref/risk preference models were proposed contemporaneously but did not find as much support.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
People can learn information about uncertainty by observing the distribution all at once (e.g., seeing a stock return distribution) or sampling outcomes from the distribution sequentially, bit by bit (e.g., experiencing a series of stock returns).
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
23 days
@arpitrage We show that it’s not just vibes but direct preference for exclusion—people get more utility from things they know others want but can’t have—which firms respond to by restricting access We run studies showing that explicit restriction can be profit-max
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
A standard assumption is if people have access to same information, then perceptions of uncertainty should be the same; choices should be function of preferences. If this is not the case, this implies identification issues a la Manski for recovering preferences from choice data
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
🤯🤯🤯 Pairing GPT with reinforcement learning leads to machines training machines—result is faster and better training than w/ human trainers. GPT suggests and refines a reward function while reinforcement learning trains the robot. Wtf. Brave new world.
@DrJimFan
Jim Fan
7 months
Can GPT-4 teach a robot hand to do pen spinning tricks better than you do? I'm excited to announce Eureka, an open-ended agent that designs reward functions for robot dexterity at super-human level. It’s like Voyager in the space of a physics simulator API! Eureka bridges the
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@Andrew___Baker Why do you hate america andrew?
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@JonSteinsson @m_urquiola @R2Rsquared @lugaricano Market differentiation? Harvard etc accept pool w/ more precise signals (eg right schools, right recs), Chicago accepts larger pool w/ noisier signal and selects after conditioning on info. Chicago wouldn’t necessarily lose best students since they wouldn’t get into former group
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
These results have implications for recovering preferences for risky choice data. In our studies, the large shifts in choices are driven by changes in beliefs, which are systematically distorted by the learning environment. Feedback very welcome!
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@mlegower God that’s good.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
"Any technology advanced enough is indistinguishable from magic" Are we getting close?
@venturetwins
Justine Moore
2 months
This is so real
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
@ak2912 Still remember going to the market and seeing shelves and shelves of mayonnaise but absolutely nothing else. Turns out market prices are a good thing :)
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
@ShengwuLi @_alice_evans I think this will be a generic result with rise of AI: people will screen *much* more heavily, to the point of potentially exiting digital spaces (that’s a personal hypothesis).
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@Andrew___Baker it's a good family andrew
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
Note underlying distributions of assets are actually the same, but shifted. But one asset (U) underperforms most of the time relative to other (F), except in one state it outperforms by a lot People saw the *same* info in both learning environments. Do beliefs & choices differ?
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
27 days
@Andrew___Baker They sell DiGiornos in Berkeley?
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@lakens @benleo_econ @eugen_dimant Econs tend to write fewer papers in general because the papers are bigger (literally). Econ journals (including those outside the top 5) expect tons and tons of robustness checks, alternative specifications---basically for the paper to have all the bases covered.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
28 days
@AnyaSamek Dislike.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@dggoldst And this is from a relatively small user base too. I took a few-months break and, coming back, it’s made even more stark how different it is from the heyday. Sad.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
@itsafronomics @ChicagoBooth @BeckerFriedman @aadukia @BlackWomenPhDs Woot woot! It was such a pleasure to host you! The talk was awesome and so was the visit. Come back soon!
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
28 days
@Andrew___Baker I mean the fact that we are still on this stupid site that is now being run by a very tired intern and 7 hamsters in wheels, says something.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@riacton That’s so awesome.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@Andrew___Baker @steve_tadelis You gotta do that thing where it sounds like you’re throwing up. Bonus points if you do throw up ( a little).
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
@andre_quentin Right, and that is the model uncertainty part. If the reported effects are cherry picked amongst the set of potential DVs, then I agree with you. But I don't see evidence for this here---the DVs appear theoretically informed and I can't think of clear DVs left out.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
@arpitrage @paulgp Absolutely. It’s worth thinking why status quo is given deference here. If smartphones were introduced now and you decided whether to allow them in schools, what would be your call? Like w smoking, perfect research design may not happen. Have to do policy w imperfect evidence
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
25 days
@SandroAmbuehl I'm really happy that math psych is making it's way into behavioral econ again. Besides Josh, Sam, and Tom's work, Jennifer Trueblood has amazing papers, as does Jerome Busemeyer, Joseph Johnson, and Tim Pleskac eg. .
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
27 days
@Andrew___Baker Hey buddy, cute pizza, but don’t step to Giordannos.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@JacobCConway @ChicagoBooth Welcome, Jacob! That’s wonderful news!
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
23 days
@katy_milkman @ChicagoBooth @R_Thaler @CDR_Booth Thank you for visiting us Katy! It was so awesome to have you.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@lakens @benleo_econ @eugen_dimant This is especially true for job market papers, which tend to be even longer. There is simply not enough time during a PhD to write many papers of this sort and to have them published.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@pqblair @UofC So good to see you Peter and to meet your awesome mom!
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
@squig @H_Sjastad This is precisely what I was thinking. The mechanism seems to be that if you get me to think about something I would have not otherwise considered, my attitude converges to it. That doesn’t seem like dissonance to me.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
@AraujoFelipeA @aislinnbohren Turns out you can step into the same river twice!
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
17 days
@Andrew___Baker @mattkahn1966 I don’t think behavioral economics has anything to do with whether we are able to adapt, other than predicting people wont be concerned enough to generate top down change (but given the decentralization of the problem, I don’t know what a top down solution even looks like)
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
17 days
@mattkahn1966 As a behavioral economist, I agree with you! I think these are two separate arguments. One: will there be enough of a concern from the public to push the govt for a top down solution. This is what the BE folks are saying won’t happen. …
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
22 days
@ho_ben There are plenty of people who want effects going in the opposite direction, as well as tight nulls, as evidenced by the Haidt discussion.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
3 months
@Mylovanov Become?
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
1 month
@KirbyKNielsen @Caltech Yayayayayyayayayayaya🙏🙏🙏 I’m bringing bags of flaming hots and gushers to celebrate.
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@alexolegimas
Alex Imas
2 months
@jasndoc @Andrew___Baker 99% of my hydration comes from filter coffee so I am free of micro plastics.
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