Adrien Auclert @a_auclert Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Adrien Auclert

@a_auclert

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Macroeconomist at @Stanford

Stanford, CA

https://t.co/2wrhYG0zUV

Joined April 2016

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

14 years after getting into a PhD, I’m thrilled to share that I’ve been voted tenure at @Stanford ! What an amazing journey, where I’ve been lucky to learn from incredible teachers, advisors, students and coauthors, and be supported by wonderful family, friends and mentors! 🥳🙏!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

🚨 Heterogeneous-agent macro workshop 🚨 Are you a macro graduate student interested in heterogeneity in macro, monetary policy, and/or fiscal policy? @BardoczyBence , @ludwigstraub , Matt Rognlie and I are organizing a workshop for you this summer:

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

Wrapping up a fantastic 3-day session at @nberpubs with 40 fantastic students. The future of heterogenous-agent macro is bright! For those who couldn’t attend, our code and lecture notes are online: @ludwigstraub @BardoczyBence

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Adrien Auclert

9 months

Thrilled to see this paper come out in #QJE ! We work out the aggregate implications of state-dependent models of price-setting (such as the Golosov-Lucas model) and show that they are closely connected to those of time-dependent models (such as the Calvo model).

@QJEHarvard

QJE

9 months

Recently accepted by #QJE , “New Pricing Models, Same Old Phillips Curves?” by Auclert ( @a_auclert ), Rigato, Rognlie, and Straub ( @ludwigstraub ):

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

🚨Call for papers: SITE conference in macro 🚨 @luigi_bocola , @SorryToBeKurt and I are organizing a conference on “frontiers of macro research” at Stanford, Sept. 11-13 We welcome submissions in all areas of macro, broadly defined. Deadline is June 19!

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Adrien Auclert

3 months

What a great public service, thanks so much @MHaensel1 ! We have similar teaching material, with everything coded from scratch in Python, in our NBER workshop lecture notes. But I'm sure many will find this implementation in Julia really useful.

@MHaensel1

Matthias Hänsel

3 months

An attempt to provide a small public good: A notebook demonstrating how to implement the Sequence Space Jacobian (SSJ) method by Auclert et al. (2021) in Julia.

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

A great summary by @ludwigstraub of our recent paper on how excess savings slowly trickle up the wealth distribution and why this matters for the outlook for consumer spending and inflation.

@ludwigstraub

Ludwig Straub

1 year

Recent inflation and consumer spending numbers have remained strong. Why? One idea that people seem to dismiss somewhat: Excess savings “It’s been two years since Biden’s stimulus, everybody already spent it” A short 🧵 on why that is the wrong way of thinking about it... 1/N

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

🚨 One week to deadline: Minnesota macro workshop 🚨 @M_De_Nardi and I are organizing the Minnesota Workshop in Macroeconomic Theory, August 2 to August 4 in MPLS. Send us your best macro paper of the year by next Friday, April 28! Submit using this form:

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Submission Form Minnesota Workshop in Macroeconomic Theory 2023

The 2023 conference will last for three days, from Wednesday, August 2 through Friday, August 4. The schedule will be quite intense, with about 14 talks. There will also be ample time for informal...

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

Thanks for a great quarter!! Teaching and interacting with lots of smart students is the best part of this job.

@Jon_Hartley_

Jon Hartley

1 year

A great way to celebrate the end of a fantastic quarter of Monetary Economics (2nd year Stanford Economics/Finance PhD class) taught by Adrien Auclert (⁦ @a_auclert ⁩) and Sebastian Di Tella. ⁦ @RubiaoOtavio ⁩ ⁦ @DariaMatviienko ⁩ ⁦ @adhami_mohamad ⁩ @angus_lewis_

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

A giant and an inspiration to all of us 😢

@TimTkehoe

Tim Kehoe 🇺🇦

1 year

Today is a sad day for economics. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., a great researcher and teacher died this morning.

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

This is an important point that I also learned from S. di Tella and @KurlatPablo . We have to be careful about marking to market bank assets, not just because they may be using derivatives, but also because the deposit franchise value provides a hedge.

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Why Are Banks Exposed to Monetary Policy?

(October 2021) - We propose a model of banks' exposure to movements in interest rates and their role in the transmission of monetary shocks. Since bank deposits provide liquidity, higher interest...

@AlexiSavov

Alexi Savov

1 year

Re bank accounting and unrealized losses: 1. As many have noted, banks are sitting on big unrealized losses on loans and securities. They don’t appear on the balance sheet because loans and securities are held at book value and not marked to market. How worried should we be?

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

Thanks also to @marcodelnegro and @dglee_nyfed for attending the whole workshop and giving us their perspective on the usefulness of HANK for central banks! It was very inspiring. We’re hoping to do this workshop again next year!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

We’ll cover both theory and methods to get you ready to write your dissertation in these areas. The material from last year is here so you get an idea: This year @marcodelnegro and @dglee_nyfed will also show us how HANK is used at the New York Fed!

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

@FpjPortier @paulkrugman As a starting point, how about “Beyond GDP” by @ChadJonesEcon and @PeteKlenow ? Includes leisure, life expectancy, inequality etc

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Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time

(September 2016) - We propose a summary statistic for the economic well-being of people in a country. Our measure incorporates consumption, leisure, mortality, and inequality, first for a narrow set...

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

The workshop will be at the NBER in Cambridge, June 12-14. We’ll pay for your expenses to attend, with generous support from @NSF and the Chae Initiative at Harvard. We’ll share all our code so that you can hit the ground running with your own project.

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GitHub - shade-econ/nber-workshop-2022: Code for the Spring 2022 heterogeneous-agent macro workshop

Code for the Spring 2022 heterogeneous-agent macro workshop - shade-econ/nber-workshop-2022

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@IvanWerning @Jonheathcote It's not just Calvo! Standard menu cost models also essentially have no inflation inertia. Small inflation persistence from the intensive margin of price adjustment cancelled out by anti-persistence from the extensive margin.

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

If you didn’t get in last year, feel free to apply again! We were overwhelmed last year but can take in a few more students this year. All graduate students that have finished the 2nd year of their PhD can apply. The deadline to apply is March 20. Hope to see you there!

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

Last year we got great reviews from an outstanding set of 35 graduate students from around the US and Europe. "The combination of cutting-edge research, practical tutorials, and the opportunity to interact with workshop participants made it a truly unique learning experience."

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@JonSteinsson Yes, whether AI will push "g" up remains to be seen, but if it does it will push r* up. Higher levels of government debt, which appear to be the new norm, also will.

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

24 days

@XJaravel Merci Xavier! Content de travailler à tes côtés pour cette belle entreprise.

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@brianehiggins @IIES_Sthlm Congratulations Brian!!! A fantastic placement, and a great hire for @IIES_Sthlm !

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@JonSteinsson On the other hand I do think that demographic change provides a powerful force pushing r* down. Here is simple sufficient statistic approach to get at magnitudes: For plausible elasticities, projected demographic change lowers r* by 65bp to 300bp!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

9 months

Third, even with strategic complementarities, it’s very hard to explain why inflation has so much persistence. Like Calvo models, state-dependent models cannot generate “intrinsic” persistence. That’s a challenge for the next generation of models! see eg:

@IvanWerning

Ivan Werning

1 year

@Jonheathcote The right conclusion is we over teach Calvo. Most models with nominal rigidities DO imply intrinsic inertia so inflation IS STICKY… Video and paper below.

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

@IvanWerning @Jonheathcote Time dependent models with upward sloping hazards (as in Sheedy) are also a bit non standard but an interesting and realistic way to get inflation persistence, I think

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@Shabnam_Shrz @nberpubs @ludwigstraub @BardoczyBence Hi was so great having you there, Shabnam. Thanks for coming and have a great and productive summer!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@ben_moll @christianbaye13 @ludwigstraub Thanks!! Very interesting, we’ll definitely look into it!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@AtifRMian @ludwigstraub We may be able make an exception for you, Atif! 😃

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@IvanWerning Thanks so much for being there all along the way, Ivan!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

See also this excellent Q&A I did with @kryscrawf of @SIEPR :

Q&A: How pandemic savings are ‘trickling up’ to the super-rich

SIEPR’s Adrien Auclert shows how the surge in savings by US households during the pandemic is exacerbating wealth inequality — and likely complicating efforts to tame inflation.

siepr.stanford.edu

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@JonSteinsson Right, I guess the conventional wisdom is that lower productivity growth has lowered r*, as implied by the neoclassical growth model, via r*=rho+sigma*g The effects of demographics are a lot more subtle, though, and it would be wrong to extrapolate by including pop growth in “g”

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@HannoLustig @KurlatPablo then need to count derivatives (as @piazzesi Martin and @JulianeBegenau have done) and also somehow account for deposit franchise value taking into account run risk

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

@AtifRMian @ludwigstraub Yes! Open to all graduate students from incoming 3rd years to those that just finished their job market.

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Adrien Auclert

7 months

@ben_moll Fantastic. Congratulations @ben_moll !!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@ben_moll @Stanford Thanks so much, Ben!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

3 months

@atanaspekanov @WU_econ @WIFOat Congratulations @atanaspekanov !! Great work!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@VinPons @lemondefr @Cercle_eco @CageJulia @pierrecboyer Bravo Vincent!! Félicitations!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

5 months

@FlorinBilbiie Congratulations, Florin!!! Very well deserved!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@abhishekn @Stanford Thanks so much, Abhishek!! 🙏🙏

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

3 months

@ludwigstraub @SloanFoundation Congratulations Ludwig. So, so well deserved!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

9 months

But when we study these nonlinearities, we find that they require very large shocks to costs, like 10% or more. So, this seems barely enough to explain the recent burst of inflation (nice recent work by @virgiliu79 and coauthors argues for larger nonlinearities.)

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@mikelpetri @Stanford Thanks so much, Mikel!! 🙏🙏

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

8 months

@UnEmpiriciste Félicitations et bienvenue à Stanford. Passe me voir à mon bureau et on ira prendre un café.

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@VinPons @Harvard Félicitations Vincent!! C’est on ne peut plus mérité. Bravo.

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

9 months

State-dependent models with idiosyncratic shocks have been phenomenally successful at explaining the micro data on price changes (figure from a great paper by @alvafer64 .) But their aggregate implications are not fully understood. We try to make progress in this paper.

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@NunoGalo @Stanford Thanks so much, Galo!!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@JanZemlicka Thank you for being there, Jan! Hope this new language can help your research in the future!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@btshapir @Stanford Thanks a lot, Brad!!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@m_aragoneses @Stanford Thanks!! I hear that we do too 😄

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@NCohenEcon @Stanford Merci beaucoup, Naomi!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

9 months

The key is that the intensive margin of price adjustment (in purple here) is captured by a model with increasing hazards, while the extensive margin (in blue) is captured by a model with decreasing hazards. When you average these two out, you get a constant hazard model: a Calvo!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@mileskimball @Stanford That’s so great to hear, Miles. Your work on precautionary savings, MPCs, and sticky prices has been an enormous inspiration for me!!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@pontus_rendahl @ludwigstraub In this model the equilibrium real interest rate is 0% and that’s the optimal thing for them to do given that they’re infinitely patient. You can think of it as a limit that makes the analytics really clean. In a more typical model, equilibrium r would go up a bit.

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

@JonSteinsson This is, I think, where your view differs most from the conventional wisdom (and possibly that of the FOMC). Most models would imply that these structural factors have *permanent* effects on the long-run real interest rate. eg, lower pop. growth rate in an OLG model->lower r*

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

9 months

The literature typically studies the effect of a once-and-for-all increase in nominal wages on the impulse response of prices. But what if we want to understand the link between real marginal costs and inflation, as in the standard “Phillips curve” of New Keynesian economics?

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@skominers @Stanford Thanks, Scott!! 🙏🙏

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@Dr_AnnaLusardi @Stanford Thank you, Annamaria!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@christianbaye13 @Stanford Thanks a lot, Christian!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@BBotucatu You should raise your issue on GitHub and we’ll do our best to help you fix it!

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Issues · shade-econ/sequence-jacobian

A unified framework to solve and analyze heterogeneous-agent macro models. - Issues · shade-econ/sequence-jacobian

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@m_aragoneses @Stanford Thank you so much, Martin!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

3 months

@ChadJonesEcon @jeanfbrou @PeteKlenow @ojblanchard1 Congratulations, JF!! Well done!!! And what a great drawing!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

4 months

@marcodelnegro @yfatihkarahan Congratulations Fatih!!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@FlorinBilbiie @Stanford Thanks so much for your kind words, Florin!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@LukasHack_ @ludwigstraub @BardoczyBence Great to have you Lukas, thanks for attending and safe travels back to Mannheim!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

9 months

This is what we study in the paper. We show that the “generalized Phillips curve” of a menu cost model (i.e. the first-order relation between real marginal cost and inflation) is the same as in a particular kind of time-dependent model.

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

9 months

Second, it’s actually not hard to explain high recent inflation with state dependent models. It’s much harder to explain low and stable inflation in other periods! This is because the kappa implied by these models is very large compared to typical estimates based on macro data.

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@monacelt @Stanford Thank you very much, Tommaso!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@eatinParis @Stanford Merci!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@FelixTintelnot @Stanford Thanks so much, Felix!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@YuchengYang1993 @Stanford Thank you, Yucheng!!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@paulgp @Stanford Thanks!!!! I owe it to you too!!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@bornecon @Stanford Thanks, Benjamin!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@mfariacastro @Stanford Thanks so much, Miguel!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@AlbrtPolo @Stanford Thanks so much, Alberto! 🙏🙏

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@sarahmgertler @Stanford Thanks so much, Sarah!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@timobres @Stanford Thanks so much, Tim!!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@EmilVerner @Stanford Thanks, Emil!!!!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@King_ofSweden @Stanford Thanks so much, Gustavo!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@Noahpinion @Stanford Thanks so much, Noah!! 🙏

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@luigiiov @Stanford Grazie, Luigi!!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@Haonan_Zhou @Stanford Thank you, Haonan!!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@mdoepke @Stanford Thanks so much, Matthias!!

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

@PaulineCarry @PrincetonEcon @BeckerFriedman @UChicago @HilaryHoynes @rolandrathelot @Schoefer_B Congratulations, Pauline!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@m_aragoneses @Stanford 😂

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

1 year

@jptguerreiro @NUEconomics @SergioRebelo6 @EichMartin Congratulations, Joao!

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@a_auclert

Adrien Auclert

6 months

@Jon_Hartley_ @Stanford Thanks Jon!!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@brianehiggins @Stanford Thanks, Brian!! Good to see you last week!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@S_Surprenant @Stanford Merci!!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@ShinnKikuchi Thank you very much!!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@RustamJamilov @Stanford Thanks, Rustam!! 🙏🙏

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@SerdarBirinci9 @Stanford Thanks so much, Serdar!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@Basile_G @Stanford Merci Basile!! 😉

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@jptguerreiro @Stanford Thank you so much, Joao

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@lugaricano @Stanford Thank you so much, Luis!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@michaeldcai @ludwigstraub Thanks so much for your kind words, Michael. It’s a privilege to work with you too!!

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

@GiardaMacro @BardoczyBence @ludwigstraub We’ll read and consider all applications and may be able to make some exceptions to our general rule about years of PhD. This will depend on how many applications we have relative to our 40 slots. Last year we had over 200 excellent applications!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@afogli001 @Stanford Thank you Alessandra!!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@SashaIndarte @Stanford Thanks so much, Sasha!! 🙏🙏

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@RDMetcalfe @Stanford Thanks, Robert!!

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Adrien Auclert

1 year

@Simon_Mongey @MinneapolisFed Congratulations!!!

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Adrien Auclert

6 months

@Benchimolium @Stanford Thank you Jonathan!!

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