“Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis...

Nature - The urban centres are the first to be discovered in the region, challenging archaeological dogma.

Quite a number of people, here and on Twitter, asked me about how I came up with my forecast for 2020. Here’s the story. By the early 2000s I had already delved into structural-demographic th…

America is burning. Dozens of cities across the United States remain under curfews at a level not seen since riots following the 1968 assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. Most commentary is focu…

When Peter Turchin issued his forecast 10 years ago, there were plenty of skeptics. 'They had no reason to believe I wasn’t crazy.'

We predicted political upheaval in America in the 2020s. This is why it’s here and what we can do to temper it.

Peter Turchin, an entomologist-turned-historian, offers insight into the battle between elites

"Is the US headed for another civil war? In a word, yes."

Wages and salaries for workers rose 5.1 percent from a year earlier, which helps employees keep up with the rising cost of living but complicates the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tamp down inflation.

In the spring of 1775 a wave of riots, approximately 300 in total, engulfed the Kingdom of France. The protests did not subside until the army had been deployed and hundreds of rioters arrested....

When we launched Seshat: Global History Databank more than a decade ago, we intended it to be a multi-purpose tool. But the central question that motivated this gargantuan undertaking was to test t…

Today the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan collapsed. Top officials, from president Ashraf Ghani down, have run away. The army partly melted away, partly defected to Taliban. There are reports of lo…

“Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis...

На фоне кадрового голода компании снижают требования к соискателям, а из-за ухода международных компаний пересматривают подход к формированию размера зарплат. Эти и другие новые тренды рынка труда

On one level, that of macrosocial dynamics, what happened yesterday, January 6, 2021, is not surprising. After all, my own model indicates that structural pressures for instability in the United St…

Of course plagiarism is wrong. But treating students as consumers sends them a very clear message: your money is just as important as your mind

Nine years ago I made one of the most consequential decisions of my life—I switched to the so-called Paleo Diet (“paleo” is a bit misleading, as I explain in the post). Had I not done so, I would c…

The remarkable success of ChatGPT and other generative A.I. has inflamed the already roiling debate about how the rise of machines will affect workers, and ultimately shape our societies. Doomers p…

Sus extravagantes vaticinios eran acogidos por la comunidad científica con perplejidad desdeñosa. Hasta que empezaron a cumplirse

Archaeological analysis suggests an arms race in ironworking and cavalry spurred bureaucracy and bigger populations

During the pandemic, the U.S. paused regular payments for student loans. But repayment was dwindling for at least a decade before that.

The idea that we can predict the collapse of societies is hotly contested — but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn from it

Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson worry that the technology will be deployed to replace, rather than empower, humans.

“Everybody knows that the dice are loaded … the poor stay poor, the rich get rich.” In the 35 years since Leonard Cohen wrote these words, the rich in the United States have become even richer and...

Searches for cultural lessons in historical data often go wrong.