Owner of Anubis Trading Limited. I offer consulting on trading software and systems. Former spread betting & fixed odds bookmaker, syndicate trader & FX trader.
@worstcontrarian
"Oh don't joke about such things lol". "No, no really there was split second where I wondered whether the power cord of my laptop could sustain my weight long enough to get it done. Fortunately someone who needed correcting on the internet popped up on my feed and I got…
If you think that you are in any way superior to anyone else because you calculate some probabilities of sporting outcomes rather than "just arb and abuse bonuses" you have a far lower probability of dying of colon cancer because you must be inspecting yours all the fucking time.
Bookmakers odds are actually incredibly efficient at doing what they are intended for which is maximising margin extraction from the common denominator. More efficient odds from an outcome prediction perspective make less money.
It does sort of sound crazy when you explain the US sports betting economy out loud to smart finance friends who aren’t involved
“The lines must be efficient so you can’t win right”
No, actually it’s really easy to win by betting bad lines. The problem is they’ll kick you out…
Interesting to see the way people see the black market for betting. I can clarify some things for people here but you don’t have to agree with or believe me. Number one reason to operate without a license in a jurisdiction is tax. Always has been and always will be. Number one…
Topic of childhood obesity brought up on Radio 4. Panellist mentions there being four betting shops on the high street as their opening point as to why people can’t afford decent food. FUCK … MY … LIFE.
The new sharp 4d chess play should be recruiting a college graduate and grooming them to be a US book VIP manager and then bearding everything through your cuckoo's nest VIP manager. "really nice kid, surname Kyrollos. Think he comes from NJ?"
Favourite strategy for golf majors nowadays is to try and find the players that are neither heavily fancied by simulation modellers nor eyeball intuition experts but also have proven themselves in contention.
To further clarify on point one. There are of course unavoidable requirements regarding SOF, SOW and AML. I would happily grant my open banking access to a well vetted and audited independent 3rd party who specialises in establishing any credit or financial irregularity issues.…
Here betting industry expert
@Matthew_Trench
tells
@SimonNott
he would
1⃣ never give a bookmaker open banking access (doesnt think it is necessary or trust them to protect the data)
2⃣ definitely use a whatsapp bookie if he was a professional gambler.
Hardly anything I give out will ever be actionable or useful but this is. Never ever close a long standing bank account. Open others fine. If you had one since a kid etc never ever close it and keep using it a bit no matter how shit they are. "Systems" attach huge value to them.
@gamblinglamb
Literally the supermarket model in many ways. Be on average not the most expensive and well positioned on some key items that people always buy. Tesco Bookmaker for the win.
@SimonNott
It did indeed emphasise the impact of exclusions on those excluded. It did not talk about how there are frequently kids within schools who are excluded from lessons (different names for this in different schools) but kept on the premises which would simply rise if full exclusion…
This is Chris Camillo.
In 2021, Chris was featured in Business Insider for turning $20,000 into $42,000,000, during his 15-year trading career.
His trading style, is one of the most interesting I've ever read about:
- Social Arbitrage
Here’s Chris's story:
So model men what decay rate are you using for Anthony Kim rounds right now? Hopefully some godless savage will reply with a Beyes and Kalman filter answer.
Sharp books. They don't close your account but also don't expect them to stand in the brace position while you field goal kick them in the nuts forever. If that sounds appealing to you though I am sure
@JeffreyBenson12
can arrange a member of the legacy club security team to…
"The books have gotten better at setting the lines (in the Draft). A couple years ago Circa released 100 over/unders a month out,"
@VegasRefund
said. "Now they release 40 the week before. That's the best example of where the market was. It's becoming a lot more difficult."
Mexico Open an elite EW shit housery golf event. Excellent time to use the new
@FoG_BLoG
plugin. Nice highlight of the best EW terms at the top with colour scale. Then the FoG Bold type (green) showing you best option when accounting for EW (not always top price)
Professional gamblers feeling uncomfortable about addicts is like male pornstars feeling bad about semen stinging the eyes. As
@sheppard8585
would say this is the business you have chosen.
Being a former professional gambler across a lot of domains naturally makes most think that I like the legalization push we’ve seen.
But mostly, I don’t.
Spend years of your life in casinos and you may agree.
People should be free to gamble, no question about it. But I doubt…
Golf round scores remain tricky to market make as they are generally fucking boring right up until there is a large course bias that means someone smashes the lot. Sporttrade MM can at least be thankful they cant round robin the fuck out of them.
If I were lucky enough to do a third appearance on
@StarSports_Bet
podcast with the brilliant
@SimonNott
does anyone have any interesting longer form subjects they would like discussed as opposed to quick fire Q&A?
@Matthew_Trench
Really enjoyed watching and hearing your thoughts of the current state of the industry. (Photo insert from a random ManCave) . Many years ago you kindly answered my questions on your podcast in exchange for design icon logo! Cheers
Had to ditch the MASSIVE_ARBER and go for the more tepid Matthew_Trench. I will explain the MASSIVE_ARBER on my next podcast invite, mildly interesting at best.
🚨 AK BETS 🚨
📑 New Signing ✍️
AK Bets are delighted to announce the signing of Peter O’Sullivan who joins us for an undisclosed fee as Head of CRM & Rewards.
Peter has extensive experience in the gambling industry having worked for Flutter in various roles from Brand to CRM.…
Contest: Mexico Open at Vidanta
Outcome: E. Van Rooyen vs J. Knapp - 72 Holes | Erik Van Rooyen
Shares/Price: 500 | $53 (-115)
Order Size: $26,500.0
Potential Profit: $23,030.0
@imattf
Not actually the case but would be pointless to argue it here. Regardless of that the very idea that the predominant contributor to the black market is restricted winning punters is laughable. Oh look at this great business opportunity lads lets scoop up all this business that…
@HarryStewartMo1
Amongst black legs in the 19th century absolutely. On a betting exchange today also fair. Bet365 equivalent bookmaker is in no way designed to to facilitate the "adversarial contract" you describe and if it was the punter would not want it. Two types of punter, two types of game…
@TheReal50972902
@TimMeggs
Several factors. French education system has always rewarded the high level theoretical in almost all disciplines. Big bang in finance meant academics could make more money there. Derivatives were a way to compete against London and NY. SocGen, BNP etc went all in on them ...
If anyone wants to have some fun although possibly very short lived today I placed a bet in the
@StarSports_Bet
on Curzon street before my
@SimonNott
interview. All favs to place at Newcastle today at 50/1. Was on the board. First one goes in.
Hard to know what is more depressing, Scottie Scheffler or BBC nature programmes. After a prolonged bout of weekend melancholy neither is really helping.
AK’s time away from golf is a Netflix Doc waiting to happen. The neck slash plus fucked eye makes it look like he worked for a fucking cartel for a decade.
@Matthew_Trench
2 ways to price it:
1. Calculating the intersection of Scottie's win probability and Clark, Theegala, & Zalatoris Top 20 probabilities which I get +3706
2. Run the model's tournament simulations and count the occurrences of the event, and I get +3868
I certainly would not want to get hit by Andy Carroll but even more than that I would not want to take one off Big Sam. A Big Sam Glasgow kiss and I reckon your whole skull parts like the red sea.
Breakfast today was a cold leftover sausage straight from the fridge. Honestly I let out a small squeak before emitting a low guttural 70’s porn movie groan of pleasure with the first bite.
This is not the result I expected. One day I would like to get 500 traders across the world to answer an admittedly lengthy questionnaire. Will require some serious bribing to get them to take it seriously no doubt.
Let’s be clear on this. If you and your luggage take up all the space in a block of four seats facing each other on the Elizabeth Line you are unequivocally a Shithouse.
@sbc_josh
Chrome applicants are penalised the least. Never use a bookmaker via a pure Linux based operating system (Ubuntu etc) is free tip for the day.
A boring read for some but a delight for people like me. Now remember if you are old enough how the offshore market servicing the US managed to transfer billions of dollars a year between each other to help reduce costs. Fancy trying it between Prime and SportTrade
@joebrennanjr
…
As customers, we expect loading money on and taking money off a platform to be seamless and instantaneous. There’s so much that goes on behind the scenes to make this happen. This was a fun blog post we collaborated on with Eric Morse from Push Cash.