Jim Welsh @JimWelshMacro Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@rrockynextdoor

@AhmedHamidadin

@WineAlign

@_yukiusagi_

@monomatemodels

@SecretsHideaway

@pretandme

@karu_pis

@conevspasegmai3

@sadoom26

@ppandream

@xaalys

@MusicWalkofFame

@GlenvaleAFC67

@TarekWiliamSaab

@laouralazouras

@yuru_creation

@ellie_kane_x

@carahendersonx1

@Dylan_Furshman

@DrYoungbody

@xhubhh

@RcCrckob0VSyz5O

@SilverKnightsNH

@MLBDraftTalk

@nashuaathletics

@NBCNewYork

@mike3k_

@jareddiamondlol

@southbaseball2

@NashLegionBall

@_devspec

@NHNbaseball

@AACountySchools

@Nom4dV3

@RemyTodd

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 months

@McClellanOsc The average lag for the 2-10 spread is 19 months Inverted in July 2022 so 19 months is January 2024 S&P peaked in January 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024? Don't forget the biggest increase in 40 years in Lending Standards

8

28

83

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

5 months

Powell & Co. have said avoiding the mistakes of the 1970's is imperative Easing too soon could allow inflation to emerge sooner in next expansion Causing FOMC to hike again - Causing a deeper recession Higher for longer is 1 way to avoid this 5 rate cuts in 2024 is delusional

1

4

19

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

7 months

@vurnt22 Met BB King in 1974 after getting off a flight to Rochester Approached him and thanked him for all the great music He was eating Fritos and then offered some to me Touched by the gesture and will remember it always 1 Favorite How Blue Can You Get

BB King - How Blue Can You Get (Legends of Rock 'n' Roll)

Watch GIGS on Samsung TV Plus: https://www.samsungtvplus.com?action=play&target_tab=discover&target_id=GBBD3000004VR&target_type=1 Available Now: https://mer...

www.youtube.com

1

4

20

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

5 months

I had my right hip replaced on Friday Everything has gone smoothly but moving a bit slower than normal Hope to be back up to speed on November 27 Happy Thanksgiving!!

2

0

18

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

@jimcramer Peak in inflation at 9.1% is not the same as a peak with inflation below 4.0% Every commodity listed below has yet to decline below its breakout level from 2021 And neither has the Bloomberg Index below

0

13

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 months

From 5048 S&P declined in 5 waves It then bounced in 3 waves The 5 wave decline indicates the near term trend is down The S&P is expected to drop < 4920 4820 - 4870 is a target zone 2 year cycle high in Feb 2024 suggests more weakness is likely

3

0

14

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 years

@Stocktwits 1987 CRASH Adv-Dec line made lower peak on Aug 25 red line even as S&P made new high On Oct 6 Germany increased rates after promising Treasury Sec Baker they wouldn't due to $ weakness That event led me to go 100% into cash on Oct 6 Adv-Dec line broke black trend line Oct 7

1

11

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

9 months

@jaykaeppel @sentimentrader So when the S&P hit a new all time high on Jan 4 2022 it was leading the economy to where? And it then fell by more than 25% and was leading the economy where? The assumption is that 'markets' know more than any individual Oct 2007 another new all time = all clear? 😉OOPS!

3

0

12

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

Tom Lee on CNBC with Christmas present Tom says no more hikes since inflation is coming down 17 of 19 members of the FOMC say the Funds rate will be increased from 4.375% to 5.12% Powell Pivoted from inflation to labor mkt as key in 2023 Tom fought the Fed in 2022 and lost

1

2

11

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

S&P Top likely Pattern suggests A-B-C rally from 3637 looks complete Pullback to 4075 minimum <4075 drop to 3900- 3950 FOMC members will continue to talk hawkish Labor mkt tightness more important than drop in CPI

1

10

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

@EPBResearch Simple - Last 20 years the Federal Reserve has kept the real fed funds rate below 0% Used QE to keep long term rates down, boost the stock market in hopes of the 1% spending more Last time wealth so concentrated in top 1%? 1920's Coming Secular Bear Market will help Ouch!

0

10

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

@EconguyRosie You're a little late in recommending Treasury bonds I recommended TLT on June 16 (green arrow on chart) at $110.25 based on its chart pattern (5 waves down from 155.00high) and expectation of slowing growth giving bond prices a boost

10

1

10

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

7 months

Recap from Sept 29 video with Blake Morrow 1) Dollar 2) 10-year Treasury yield 3) S&P 4) Gold 5) Crude oil

0

3

11

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

PPI and CPI will be down on Friday and next Tuesday Recent economic data has been good Forget White Christmas, Wall Street is dreaming of a Soft Landing Rally above 4100 as long as S&P holds above 3890

0

2

11

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

10 months

The S&P has reached two important price levels What might it mean? Watch Blake and I cover S&P, FOMC, CPI, Gold, Dollar, Treasury yields What? CPI inflation will go UP in coming months

1

2

10

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

7 months

Posted on Sept 11 - S&P has dropped below 4335 "Pattern from 4541 suggests S&P 500 on cusp of wave 3 of Wave C" "Wave C should take the S&P 500 below 4335" "Wave A was 272 points (4607 – 4335) and an equal decline for Wave C from 4541 targets a decline to 4269"

0

2

10

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

@CathieDWood That may be true but there is one huge difference In the 1980's the Federal Funds rate recorded a REAL rate of more than +5% Today the REAL Funds rate is a negative -5.0% Twisting data to fit your narrative is a mistake and you show know better

1

0

10

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

8 months

@jasonfurman @WSJopinion Fed mandate: Stable prices The average lifespan is 76 - 80 years At 2% the cost of living quadruples in 72 years At 3% the cost of living increases 8 fold How can anyone describe this as Stable?

0

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

I'm not mentioning any names, but I'm gonna take care of those who take their time to read this post. Please, in memory of someone who dies or fought cancer or is fighting cancer copy and paste then write DONE! This has a very special meaning for me today! DONE!

13

1

10

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

Buying the Dip works in a Bull market Don't confuse a Bull market with brains Buying the Dip in a Bear Market doesn't work

0

1

10

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

Gold - Good chance Gold completed an A-B-C correction from March 2020 high of 2070 Low last week @1681 may have completed Wave C, or will do so with 1 more drop below 1681 Time to Buy Gold, Rally to 1850 likely with higher potential

0

2

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

Have been Looking for a -3% - -5% correction in Q1 after a new high If the S&P trades below 4802 (Wave 1 high off Jan 5 low) the top is in As long as S&P stays above 4802 a rally above 4931 is possible If that occurs going short makes sense

1

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

@BobOnMarkets @Claudia_Sahm Retail Sales aren't adjusted for inflation So this chart includes inflation and super charged stimulus spending

0

1

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

@leadlagreport Markets do not discount the future Markets are always wrong at every top or bottom What was the S&P telling you in January? What were bond yields telling you in June 2021, Or gold in August 2020 at $2070

0

1

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

2023 Financial markets will be fairly volatile in 2023 as the Federal Reserve attempts to dampen inflation and deals with a recession I will do my best do keep us from being surprised and on the right side of the trends. Happiness and Health to you and your family in 2023!

0

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 months

After S&P peaked in 1939, 1956, 1973, 1990, 2007, 2024? Declined by > -20% Want to learn more? If you would like a copy of the January 2 Weekly Technical email to JimWelshMacro @gmail Provides details back to1939 with charts

The 17yr S&P500 Cycle is a WARNING!

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow to discuss the markets as the New Year kicks off with a bang! He discusses the market reaction to the No...

www.youtube.com

1

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

Sooner rather than later CPI will be below 5% after March CPI Recession in 2023 Unemployment headed to 5% in 2023 TLT is completing 5 wave decline from March 2020 Buy Treasury bond ETF - TLT

0

1

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

5 years

Forty years ago today Heidi and I were married. Heidi has been the greatest blessing of my life and I am so fortunate and grateful.

2

0

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

11 months

If the FOMC was successful and inflation averaged 2% for a long time Prices will double every 36 years and quadruple in 72 years The average life span is 78 years Prices will quadruple during the average life and the FOMC would brag about price stability! Economics PhD = Dumb

1

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

Fed funds vs. CPI is still negative by more than -6.0% More negative now than late 1970's Let's get real folks - Policy is still accommodative

0

3

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

10 months

@BergMilton If this was a bull market, why are the Value Comp, S&P Equal Weight, and Russell 2000 -4% to -5% below their Feb highs? Maybe because it's not a bull market Ironic that investors are more bullish now than in Feb

0

5

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

FOMC guidance has been extraordinarily clear Funds rate going to 5.1% and then pause No rate cuts in second half Unemployment Rate 3.5% No way FOMC cuts with UR below 4.0% Core inflation is sticky S&P falling to 3800 as economy slows No rate cuts

0

1

9

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

Happy Thanksgiving!

2

1

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

The March 27 Weekly Technical Review was just published: "Commercial Real Estate Is a Problem" In depth look at how the 67% of lending by small banks to commercial lending will impact the economy. Free copy: send email to JimWelshMacro @gmail .com

2

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 month

Wall Street expects 3 cuts in the Funds rate. That's not going to happen since inflation is more likely to increase in the second half of 2024. Check out my latest article: FOMC Won't Get the Confidence to Lower Funds Rate 3 Times via @LinkedIn

1

2

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

6 months

10-30 WTR “The S&P 500 can be expected to retrace 38.2% of the decline from 4607 to 4104 at 4296 and to 4355 if it retraces 50% 11-6 This rally is likely Wave a Wave b can be expected to bring the S&P 500 down to 4250 �� 4285 Wave c that could lift the S&P 500 above 4500

0

1

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

S&P recorded an all time high on Feb 2 Twice as many stocks were down Since 1926 there have never been twice as many stocks declining on the day when the S&P 500 closed at a new high. That’s extraordinary. S&P looks to have completed 5 waves up from 4682 Blue numerals

0

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

In a Bull market the vast majority of stocks move higher which lifts the Advance-Decline line Nasdaq breadth barely above 2022 lows! NYSE breadth not much better A-D line weakness suggests Bear market not over Retest of Oct 2022 low likely

0

3

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

11 months

The Option Premium is another sentiment gauge The green vertical bars show when it dropped to a low level and how that correlated with a top in the S&P March 2022, Aug 2022, Dec 2022, February 2023 Wall Street-CNBC talking heads bullish Should you be bullish?

3

0

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

5 months

Powell Speech 12-1 Premature to conclude policy is restrictive enough Premature to price in rate cuts Potential to hike again if inflation misbehaves Wall Street concluded Rate cut coming in March 2024! And 4 more! Selective hearing or delusional? Both

0

2

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 months

Great conversation with Jim Puplava - Financial Sense We covered a lot of ground with focus on the next few years and beyond Long Term Charts are available on the Financial Sense website Has a Secular Bear market in bonds begun?

Financial Sense Wealth Management

@FinancialSense_

2 months

This week we cover the big move by $NVDA, outlook for the $SPX, and the bond market with Macro Tides' @JimWelshMacro

0

4

2

1

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 months

Transports are breaking down Often lead the market Will the Semi's follow? Yes

0

2

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

6 months

Oct 30 WTR S&P Outlook The market is expected to rally. The S&P 500 can be expected to retrace 38.2% of the decline from 4607 to 4104 at 4296 and to 4355 if it retraces 50%.

1

2

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

Stronger US Dollar is exporting inflation, especially for any country that imports oil and food Higher domestic inflation is forcing other Central Banks to hike rates to support their currency Time for Treasury Sec Yellen to say At current levels the Dollar is overvalued

1

3

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

FOMC believes in Forward Guidance 17 of 19 members favor Funds rate 5.1% or higher Level of unanimity is a message Kashkari a former Dove (another message) posts today BEFORE minutes from 12-14 meeting Supports 5.4% - 1.25% higher Are markets priced for this? Don't think so

0

1

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 months

Wall Street believes Powell pivoted No, he was ambushed by the SEP projection of 4.6% as a number of members updated their number after the PPI After 18 months of consensus there are 2 groups One group for sooner cuts and the other wanting to wait

1

3

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

Financial Conditions have eased a lot on prospect of .50% hike and Fed 'pivot' Powell did pivot To the labor mkt from inflation in Nov 30 speech Labor mkt now guiding policy, not inflation Labor mkt tightness = Tighter for longer = recession Not great for stocks

0

2

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

10 months

Last summer economists said economy in recession Then recession in 1H 2023 Wrong for so long like the Boy who cried wolf My view economy will show more signs of slowing in the second half of 2023 In this video I discuss signs that support my view

1

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

Like Jim Cramer Just heard him say he called the top in inflation to the day He forgot all the months he was pounding the table saying Powell would be right about inflation being transitory Calling the top on the 8th attempt doesn't really count

3

1

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

5 months

A look at the near term for S&P, Dollar, Gold, Treasury yields And The Big picture of what's likely coming in the next 10 years

0

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

The S&P topped in January 2018 February 2020 January 2022 February 2024? Bullish sentiment is rampant Treasury yields moving up Gold is hanging on by a thread Needs to hold above 2002 or else

1

0

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

@JeffSnider_AIP Help me out here On Dec 9 2021 the fed funds futures were pricing in 3 hikes in all of 2022 What was the market certain of then? Why would anyone choose to believe the market is 'certain' of anything?

0

1

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

@calculatedrisk Used Cars -14.9% 12 months Since 12-2019 +42.5% Biggest decline last 12 months Largest increase ever since 2019

0

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

QQQ completing Wave 5 from 395.34 low Jan 5 Great earnings being celebrated today Next week higher Treasury yields = profit taking Decline in S&P & QQQ next up

0

1

8

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

9 months

7-31 WTR - "A -5-7% correction is expected" "Close < 4528 provides confirmation" The S&P has experienced 2 Key Reversals in 7 days July 27 & Aug 4 Aug 4 reversal followed a 'Goldilocks' jobs report Uptrend from late May low broken - Blue line Accelerated decline set up

1

0

5

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 years

When we asked our restaurant employees to come back, almost all said, ‘No thanks.’ If they return to work, they’ll have to take a pay cut, writes Kurt Huffman via @WSJ

2

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

San Fran Fed says the 3 month T bill vs 10 year yield is better than the 2 yr vs 10 year 3 mo bill vs 10 yr isn't close (yet) to inverting Won't lower the volume of those fixated on the 2-10 spread Has a median lead time prior to a recession of 19 months Helpful? Not really!

0

2

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

@RyanDetrick @sonusvarghese If I put my head in the oven - feet in the freezer my stomach is just right 🙂 Good chance the people holding the $1.1 trillion in debt are not the same people with large balances at the bank Stress is building within the economy Delinquency rates are climbing

1

0

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

On March 2 I recommended buying the long term Treasury yield ETF TLT below $99.35 An article I wrote on Linked In was posted on my Twitter feed This morning I recommended selling half of the position with TLT trading at $104.80

0

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

5 months

Powell will push back Wall Street rate cut projections Jan 2022 Wall St. forecast 3 hikes for 2022 Why believe Wall Street now? Easing in Fin'l Conditions Stimulates economy, Not what Fed wants Powell Provides excuse for profit taking S&P from 4104 Wave C=Wave A at 4633

3

2

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

Street thinks the FOMC increases funds rate 1.0% July 91% Wrong, 0.75% in September Me - 0.75% in July maybe 0.50% in Sept Financial Conditions have tightened more than policy rate FOMC doesn't want a 'problem' to develop that causes them to back track Moderation is coming

0

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

Watch, Listen, and Learn I expected the S&P to fall to 3500 in 2022 and for a rally to 4200 in 2023. What's coming next? Listen, Watch, and Learn Jim Welsh @JimWelshMacro

0

3

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

10 months

The S&P has reached two important price levels Rally off the October low of 3492 lifted the S&P to 4195 Equal rally from the March low of 3809 is 4512 78.6% retracement of decline from 4818 to 3492 is 4534 Today 4528 Buy SH S&P inverse ETF $13.71

0

2

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

6 months

My presentation starts at 11:15 EST Thursday 11-16 A look at the Big Picture Recession in 2024? You must say you're an accredited investor to attend for FREE Income, Growth, and Value Summit Virtual Expo file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/EACR1123_Welsh-1.html

2

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

In the old days the market rallied on higher volume For most of the last decade the markets rallies on low volume after ramping higher during a selloff And, Oh yeah, it's August

0

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

6 months

@vurnt22 Big fan Nantucket Sleighride For Yasgur's Farm Mississippi Queen 1978 Walking down a street in Milwaukee Here comes Lesley West Thanked him for all the great music

0

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

Strength concentrated Extreme weakness under the surface Market top forming New high in S&P should be sold

2

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 years

@hmeisler The Russell 2000 may have completed 5 waves up from the low in Sept at today's high It looks like it also completed 5 waves up from Jan 4 low for Wave 5 from Sept low Implies a top in the strongest sector Ugly week possible next week

0

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 years

@Daniel_VonAhlen Just facts. In 1981 the debt to GDP ratio was 32% and doubled by June 2008 Same period 10-yr Trsy yield fell from 15.4% to 3.99% This was before QE1 in December and FC hit in Sept 2008 Corp debt grew from 30% in 1981 to 45% in 2008 No crowding out Classroom theory vs reality

2

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

December 18 WTR title "Powell Wasn’t as Dovish as Market’s Believe" January 16 WTR title “No Hurry to Cut" Thought Wall Street was wrong to think a rate cut was coming Reaction by S&P shows Wall Street's surprise when there shouldn't have been any surprise

0

2

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 month

Stock market concluded 3 cuts are coming Powell said confidence inflation is going toward 2% is needed for the first cut Feb PCE won't show much progress March CPI will tick up to 3.4% from 3.2% Ensuing months have low takeaways 3 cuts is a reach

Breaking Down the FOMC: Can They Cut “3” times in 2024?

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow to discuss the markets reaction to the FOMC meeting and Jim walks you through the March SEP, Dot Plots, ...

www.youtube.com

0

2

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 months

Small banks disproportionately hold more Commercial Real Estate loans than big banks The wave of small banks being shut down will make March 2023's Regional bank problem look like a hick up

1

2

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

Wave 1 off the low on January 5 was 120 points (4802-4682) If Wave 5 is equal, the S&P 500 could trade up to 4965 (4845+120) Rally > 4931 completes 5 waves up from 4682 Pullback coming

0

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

9-26 Weekly Technical Review -2 The Dot Plot last week finally woke up Wall Street to the message FOMC members have been delivering for weeks. The FOMC is going to increase the Funds rate to a modestly restrictive level and then hold the Funds rate at that level for a long time.

1

2

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

10 months

Last year I said no recession in 2022 or first half of 2023 A slowdown is coming in 2H and recession in 2024 Tune in to hear why My presentation at the Money Show is tomorrow at 1:20 - 1:50 EST You can attend by clicking on this link

0

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 years

The irony will be lost on those who don't support nuclear power cleanest power source and eliminates outages after sundown (France gets 80% of its electricity) The US can build safe nuclear Past is prologue in 2040 there will be shortages limiting driving electric cars range

2

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

9 months

@EconBerger Big difference In 1995 banks didn't increase lending standards which is why there was a soft landing Same thing in 1965 and 1984 Rejections rate for car loans 9% in Feb and 14% in June Auto production added 0.51% to 2 Q GDP What happens later this year? Less production

1

2

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

@silviakillings @TheStalwart Overwhelmingly would be 90% not 59% Your bias is showing If this program were means tested as it should be, the percentage for food utilities would be over 90%

40

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

@menlobear Adam Think bigger and move to California Then you can take $900 from the register Walk out of the store Even if you're video taped stealing You're a free Man! No charges filed and the DA claims crime is down🙃 Sounds like an alternate universe? Welcome to California in 2022!

1

0

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

@PipCzar @forexanalytix Perfect timing Blake! Dollar strength is sending shock waves throughout the global financial system Time for Treasury Sec Yellen to say "At its current level the Dollar is likely over valued" And say nothing more

0

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

In Aug 15 WTR told subscribers to lighten up Expected decline to June low The Gap higher on Oct 4 and Gap lower on Oct 7 created an Island Look out below! 50% retracement is 3505 of rally from Mar 2020 low 2190 to Jan 2022 high of 4818

0

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 years

The market is a discounting mechanism How many times have you heard some expert utter those words? Complete rubbish. What was the market discounting when the S&P peaked on Feb 19, 2020? Or in October 2007? Or March 2009? The market is always wrong at tops and bottoms. Period

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

10 months

FYI didn't expect recession in 2022 or 1H of 2023 but big slowing 2H Wall Street is cheering the upward revision to Q1 GDP What's being overlooked is the 2nd consecutive decline in Gross Domestic Income Q4 -3.3% Q1 -1.8% Over time GDP & GDI track Suggests weaker GDP coming

2

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

8 months

Decline from 4607 was 3 waves Bounce from 4335 was 3 waves red A-B-C Wave C down has begun Targets drop to 4270 or less

0

1

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

What do you think Treasury yields are going to do? How about Gold? Or the Dollar? The S&P? Here's my take after combining the outlook for monetary policy, the economy, and chart analysis

Elliott Wave count says #Gold setting up for new all time highs! |...

Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow to discuss the recent moves in markets following this week of trading as the markets are swinging wildly...

www.youtube.com

1

7

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

@EconguyRosie Didn't think there would be a recession 2022-2023 MFG is <15% of GDP, Services > 80% Consumers had Excess Savings Curve inverted July '22 AVG lead time from yield curve inversion is 19 months = January '24 Lending Standards tight - Sm Biz squeezed Big slowing by mid 2024

0

5

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

7 months

Andy Giersher and I discuss the near term outlook for stocks, Dollar, and Treasury yields And the longer term prospect of a Secular Bear market that could last for more than 10 years The Coming Secular Bear Market report is available

A warning from a stock market expert

This week on the Gains podcast, Jim Welsh joins us with a deep dive into the recent financial turmoil hitting stocks, offering insights on market dynamics and a cautionary long-term perspective.

www.audacy.com

0

2

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

A look at the ratio of Credit Card debt as a % of Disposable Income suggests consumers aren't stretched 2013-2017 It was 5.6% 2005-2007 7.5%, Now 5.5% However Disposable Income isn't distributed evenly throughout society Income Inequality greater now than since the 1920's

0

1

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

14 days

I'm looking forward to our conversation tomorrow Hope you can join us Have Treasury bonds entered a Secular Bear Market? Will the No recession narrative be challenged before year end?

0

1

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

Oct 31 WTR Quote To the extent a 0.50% hike in December has been the main reason for rally since Oct 21, correction would bring S&P 500 down to 3698 – 3747 or lower The stock market could be vulnerable to deeper shakeout Given this set up lightening up near 3900 makes sense.

1

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

3 months

S&P almost reached Wave 5 4965 target Underlying weakness NYSE Advances 797 Declines 2014 Decline to 4800 maybe 4600 Higher Treasury yields = Mega Cap stock weakness next week

0

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

10 months

Ro Khana asks Why not 3% inflation? Avg. lifespan 78 2% inflation Prices double in 36 years Quadruple in 72 yrs 3% inflation Prices double in 24 years Prices up 8 fold in 72 yrs This is why 3% inflation is a bad idea Except for politicians that want to spend lots of money

0

1

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 months

@PipCzar @ChrisDMacro @gordonnr @SteliosConto @ForexStopHunter @forexflowlive @forexanalytix @leancofx @GregaHorvatFX @ChrisWeston_PS @Vulgi @DoubleWideCap @Jimmyjude13 @Dcpcooks The Holidays provide all of us the opportunity to focus on the Blessings in our life and ignore the other stuff

1

2

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

7 months

Great cartoon Consumers always want a sale price or discounted prices when shopping for cars, clothes and gadgets A market provides a discount or puts merchandise on sale No Thanks! Markets reveal a different side to human psychology At a top investors are willing to pay more

0

3

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

1 year

Nice feedback Every week I meet with @JimWelshMacro and he breaks down his macro view complimented by charts. Probably one of the best weekly market preparation videos you need to watch Take the time to check out

0

1

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

9 years

Reviewing charts with Grandson Wyatt. He thinks Apple looks good and the market is expensive - so be careful! http://t.co/m6UTRQOcfC

2

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 months

Ike Iossif Marketviews and I discuss the key reversals in Nvidia and the Semi Conductor ETH-SMH When the leaders (Generals) experience a Key Reversal the foot soldiers often follow

1

2

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

2 years

Check out my latest article: How High Will the Unemployment Rate Go in 2023? Above 5% What?!? via @LinkedIn

3

1

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

10 months

21 Day Net % of Advances - Declines Last week S&P >4400 BUT Market breadth weaker than in April 4163 Much weaker than in Feb SPX 4195 Much weaker than Aug 4325 Participation in recent rally was poor After early June spurt breadth has softened

0

1

6

Jim Welsh

@JimWelshMacro

4 years

@DiMartinoBooth Spending by those 55 and older comprises 42% of GDP But this cohort is most affected by COVID Until those 55 and older are safe and able to fully reengage into the economy, growth will be held back and not normal Inflation not likely until sideline money flows into the economy

0

1

6