Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc Twitter profile

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Tom McClellan

6 years

"Everyone times the market. Some people buy when they have money, and sell when they need money, while others use methods that are more sophisticated." - - Marian McClellan (1934-2003), co-creator of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index

Joe David Myers - OJinAZ

@JDMMIG

6 years

@McClellanOsc Can you share the quote of your mother that you gave on the Marketwatchers webinar. Thanks

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

19 days

Attention job seekers. I will not hire any recent graduate of Columbia, because that school is so tainted that I will not be able to trust in the character nor the educational attainment of any of its students. And I furthermore will not hire any older graduates either, because

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

19 days

@mczumas Every employer discriminates, and on a large variety of topic categories, e.g. education, experience, face tattoos.... Discriminating based on race, sex, religion, and national origin are bad types of discriminating. There are other types that are proper, and useful.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

19 days

@WagieCapital Forming judgements about people based on their actions is not bigotry.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

19 days

@terronk @BillAckman The choices a person makes comprise part of "the merits". And it is fair to judge a person based on such choices.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

19 days

@MakiaVlo More like Angelouism: "When people tell you who they are, believe them the first time."

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

Why is 2022 seeing a bear market? Short answer: Liquidity. Fed is taking away the punch bowl, and Congress is taking too much money out of the economy in the form of taxes. Every time taxes go above 18% of GDP (since the 1930s) we have gotten a recession. Every time.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 months

A horse walks into a bar. The bartender says, “Look, horse, you’ve been in here every night this week. Do you think maybe you’re an alcoholic?” The horse replies, “I think not!”, and then, poof, the horse disappears. You’re probably wondering how a horse could just disappear

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 years

@biancoresearch Speaking as a one-time Army logistics officer, these trucks look like they are getting shipped new from the factory (or the rebuild depot). If it were a unit deployment, there would be a mixture of truck types, and loaded with other equipment, plus with distinctive markings.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

3 years

This is going to matter, eventually.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 months

The reason why we have big wars about every 40 years, and major economic wars about every 80, is that all of the people who remember how bad the last one was have died, and so the new "best and brightest" don't have anyone telling them they ought to avoid such things. The U.S.

Cernovich

@Cernovich

4 months

Remember sitting in class. History. World War I especially. Thinking, “How the fuck did this happen?” We don’t have to wonder anymore.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

19 days

@veryzenny I served in the Army for 11 years, and all that time (and since) I have considered myself to be anti-war.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

If it breaks key support, there is going to be real trouble.

Steve Burns

@SJosephBurns

2 years

How a technical analyst sees lightning.⚡️📉👀

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

8 months

I keep hearing analysts assert that we have dodged the recession this time, and that the inversion of the yield curve did not matter. This misunderstands the 15-month lag.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

Since were "on the verge of Armageddon", it is time to replay this story about the late Mike Epstein, who was a Navy Seal in Korea before the Seals were a thing, a former floor trader, and onetime head of the Market Technicians Association. Events are from 1962.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

7 months

Only 14 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are above their 100-day simple moving averages. This can go lower, but it is officially "pretty darned low".

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

7 months

For those worrying about the rise in interest rates, know that it is happening right on schedule, and due to end soon, most likely in November. This model looks ahead 5 years, and gets the direction and turning point timings mostly right, except when Fed's thumb is on the scale.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator got down to -293 on Friday, Jan. 21, the lowest since the -421 during the Covid Crash 2 years ago. This is officially "pretty darned oversold". It can go lower, but that's pretty hard.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

5 years

Today's egregious chart crime.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

"There's never been a better time to buy stocks." - - Alan Greenspan, New York Times Business Section, January 4, 1973, one week before the start of a 45% decline.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

Stock market has had a good run, but is now arguably overbought. SP500 is extended well above its 50EMA. This chart shows that in a tricky way. Choose PPO as an indicator, then set parameters as (1,50) to show percent deviation from that EMA. Most overbot since just after Covid.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

16 days

My controversial take: The Fed cannot really control inflation. If higher interest rates even could fix the inflation problem, they would have done so. The Fed needs to stop thinking that it wields this awesome power to control inflation, with the tools they have. So what can

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 months

The bond market knows. The longer that the FOMC resists, the worse the outcome will be.

zerohedge

@zerohedge

4 months

Market: Hi Jerome, nice regional banks you got there, pity if something terrible happened to them... still confident you won't cut in March?

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

The Nasdaq 100 Index is off just 1.2% from its recent closing high. But only 53 of its components are above their own 100-day simple moving average. And that number is falling, which is a bearish divergence.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

Fed rate hike cycles typically end when the Fed Funds rate catches up to where the 2-year yield has already gone. We have that condition now. So the Fed should stop, but there is no indication that they know that, based on the post-meeting announcement.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 years

There are only 2 fundamentals that matter to the overall stock market: 1. How much money is there? 2. How much does that money want to be invested? This chart shows that there can be a lag in how #1 works.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

5 months

The NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator finally dropped below its zero line on Jan. 2, after 60 consecutive trading days above zero. This follows a long bearish divergence vs. prices. That divergence is just the setup, not the signal. Crossing zero is the signal (but not necessarily

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

This has all been said before, by lots of smart people, but it is worth repeating. Inverted yield curve episodes are followed by rising unemployment 100% of the time.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

7 months

NYSE breadth is strong again Friday after the tepid jobs report. They are strong enough to give us a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal if these numbers persist into the close. This signal importantly requires breadth going from bad to really good, within 10 trading days.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

5 months

The FOMC is now more than a half point behind the message of the 2-year. The longer they wait to cut, the worse the damage will be from having misplaced interest rate policy. If we could just outsource the task of setting the FF target to the 2-year yield, we would have better

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

5 months

We have never seen a drop in the money supply like we have now during the modern era of such accounting (older than 1959 is proxy data). We know that big surges in M2 bring big stock market surges a year later. We don't know what big drops like this mean.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

5 months

The Fed Funds rate is now almost a full point above the 2-year yield, reflecting an immense amount of overly tight monetary policy from the Fed. They were slow to respond just like this in 2001 and 2007, and each time it caused big problems.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

Greenspan was right (on this particular point at least). Federal tax receipts lag the movements of the SP500 by about 1 year. Bear markets hurt future tax receipts. It is tough to find a better correlation than this one.

Luke Gromen

@LukeGromen

1 year

“A surprisingly large % of US income tax receipts are tied to a rise in US stock prices. When the US stock market just stops rising…not falls, but just stops rising, that will put pressure on the receipt side of the US fiscal picture." -Greenspan, 2015 US stocks = the economy

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

11 months

Another good comparison is between the spot VIX Index and its futures contract prices. We are seeing a really high spread now, which is a sign of a top for prices.

Linda Raschke

@LindaRaschke

11 months

VIX - funny that it is dubbed the "fear" index when it is essentially based on the underlying historic vol. Traders should look instead at the difference between the actually vol and the implied (vix).

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

The bulls have 2 big points arguing in their favor. The first is that we are seeing gobs of breadth, which is bullish. [1/x]

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

5 years

There, @BernieSanders , I fixed it for you.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

Heard on TV: "Every single regional and local bank across the country is now assessing their loan assets and liabilities...." Isn't that what they are supposed to do, every day?

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 years

I do not profess to be a bitcoin expert in any sense. But I shared this interesting chart in my Daily Edition this evening. . Total open interest in bitcoin futures has nearly doubled in the past 2 weeks. Something interesting is brewing.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 months

One can follow the Taylor Rule, which is mathematically complex with several inputs. Or one can just listen to the 2-year T-Note yield, which knows better than the Fed's 400 PhDs do about what the FOMC is going to do.

St. Louis Fed

@stlouisfed

2 months

The Taylor rule uses a formula to calculate what it considers to be the optimal policy rate. How do different measures of the output gap affect the prescribed rate?

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

In the entire published history of monetary aggregates (since 1959), there has never been an M2 drop as big as what we are experiencing. I still think that is going to matter, after the 12-month lag does its thing. See more at .

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

Stock price movements are looking more and more like 1973-74, especially lately (not so much back in 2021). But the fundamentals are totally different now; it's not like we have some oil embargo, and a president facing investigations over a coverup.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

CBOE Put/Call Volume Ratio on Friday was highest since the Covid Crash.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

The FOMC will "maybe" pause additional rate hikes at the June meeting. They should instead convene an emergency Zoom meeting right now, today, and implement a 1 full point cut, then be ready for making more cuts. Every day's delay worsens the effects of this screw up.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

9 months

I hear it argued that the inverted yield curve must not matter this time, because if it mattered then it should have mattered by now. This misunderstands the 15-month lag.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

The drop in the VIX Index on Friday took it well below its distant month futures, which actually rose, widening this spread.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 months

Perhaps the greatest case of front-running which did not work out well was gold in 1974. Back in 1975, Americans were finally allowed to own gold bullion again. President Roosevelt back in 1933 had made it illegal for Americans to own gold bullion, and everyone had to sell

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

28 days

The SP500 kept going down Friday, but breadth was positive, helping to lift the NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator up further from Tuesday's very low reading. It was the most negative reading since March 2023 (which was a pretty good price bottom). Seasonality is still in the bulls'

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

Jerome Powell stated in his interview Tuesday that the Fed is not done hiking rates. They should be, since they have already surpassed the 2-year T-Note yield. Bad things happen to the economy when the Fed does that, e.g. Internet bubble collapse, 2007-08 GFC.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

10 months

Latest M2 data just out, tiny uptick in M2 (not seasonally adjusted) in June. We have never seen a drop like this one in M2/GDP, so it is hard to say exactly what it means. We know that big rises in M2/GDP lead to big stock market gains 1 year later. But it is extrapolation not

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

When the McClellan Price Oscillator for the SP500 turned up on Mar. 3, I opined in my Daily Edition that it was likely to turn out to be a "fishhook" structure. A fishhook marks the failure of the forces of reversal, and opens the door to vigorous trend resumption.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

3 years

Look at this chart of copper vs. $TNX, and ask yourself this question: When these two disagree, which one usually ends up being right?

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

How did it escape the attention of all of Fintwit (as far as I know) that tomorrow, March 23, is "World Bear Day"?

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

7 years

I served 11 years in US Army, and thankfully never qualified to be honored on Memorial Day. Enjoy your weekend. Think of those who did.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

5 years

Here is an interesting divergence. And I have not heard nor seen much discussion of EEM lately, which makes it all the more likely to be a relevant indication.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 years

We have been through 3 prior rounds of QE. Each time, it worked really well to lift stock market. And it worked horribly whenever the Fed decided to stop. Now "Not QE" has morphed into QE4. Do you really want to bet against a phenomenon with this track record working?

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 months

Investors Intelligence survey this week shows fewest bears since February 2018.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 month

The NYSE's McClellan Volume Oscillator is now officially "pretty darned oversold", just as is the A-D version. You can see the McClellan A-D Oscillator every day at .

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

Gold prices in Japanese yen do not agree with the lower low seen in the dollar price plot. When they disagree, it is usually the price of gold in yen that ends up being right about where both plots are headed.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

I'm hearing it said that FTX is the "Lehman Brothers" moment of 2022. If so, it is arriving just a little bit early on the script. Lehman collapsed Sep. 12-15, 2008, and we are still at the equivalent of the beginning of August 2008 in the best analog.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

7 months

I still like this cartoon, applicable once again today.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 years

Fundamentalists are worried about the SP500 at 21x earnings. But that is not the relevant price ratio. This is:

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

9 months

American Trader: "Gold is in a downtrend since May." Japanese Trader: "What do you mean? Gold is still in an uptrend for the past several years." Both of them are correct. The interesting point is that when the two plots disagree, the yen-priced plot is usually correct.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

The big money "commercial" traders tracked by the CFTC in the COT Report are now at their smallest net short position as a group since 2016. These traders are largely oil producers using the futures market to lock in pricing on their future production. This action is their way

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

NYSE A-D Line bearish divergence vs. the DJIA.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

7 years

The late Mike Epstein was a former NYSE floor trader, and pres. of the Market Technicians Assoc. The following was told as a eulogy in 2009.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

5 months

On Dec. 26, Nasdaq total volume was over 2x that of NYSE, part of an ongoing trend. This chart shows a 10MA of the daily NQ/NY TVOL ratio. High readings like this pretty reliably mark price tops, with one notable exception back in April 2023.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

8 months

I’m fortunate that my father Sherman McClellan is still around and doing great, still working with me every day. Behind us in the background is Mt. Rainier, who was camera shy that day.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

11 months

I don't normally work on currencies data, but something in Friday's COT Report caught my eye. The big-money "commercial" traders of British pound futures made a big move this week to the short side, as if someone knows something is coming. What that is, I don't know. But when

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

11 months

I have no idea what secret sauce is in the "Core Risk Model", but I can say that this is an elegant chart. The pinnacle of chartology is to build a chart that does not even need any elaboration by text. Pretty much anyone can look at this chart, and see what it is saying.

Macro Charts

@MacroCharts

11 months

Good luck with that.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

3 years

On Monday, Feb. 8, the Nasdaq saw 706 stocks make new 52-week highs. That is an all-time record, and not bearish.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

3 years

We could eliminate the debt ceiling, and deficits, with just one law change. Here's how it would work: On Sep. 30, if the total federal debt is even 1 penny higher than 1yr ago, then tax rate for that year goes to 90% for POTUS, VP, Congress, & cabinet, on all household income.

Leonydus Johnson (leave/me/alone)

@LeonydusJohnson

3 years

What's the point in even having a debt ceiling if Congress just keeps raising the limit?

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

10 months

I talk a lot about the difference between a "condition" and a "signal". The NYSE McClellan A-D Oscillator has been in a bearish divergence (condition), and now it broke down through zero (signal) on Thursday's big intraday breadth reversal.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

6 months

PSA: As December gets closer, you are going to hear the term "Santa Claus Rally" get tossed around by analysts, seemingly referring vaguely to any rally that happens sometime around Decemberish. Among professionals, the term "The Santa Claus Rally" has a very narrow and specific

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

The SP500 on Friday did not make a lower closing low (below June). But the High Yield Bond A-D Line did. That's bearish. [1/2]

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

3 months

My latest Chart In Focus article, "Crude Oil Says Stocks Heading for Unpleasant Time", is posted at .

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

NDX has been leading lately. But not all of its components are joining the party.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

8 months

Data from Cass Information Systems show that it is an ugly time to be in the freight shipping business. Other than Covid Crash, such numbers are only seen in events later certified as official recessions.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

Damage is being concealed in the NDX by AAPL and MSFT hanging in there lately. Meanwhile, average NDX stock is 16.6% below its own 52-week high. And only 49 of 100 NDX stocks are above their 100MAs. That is not what you want to see in a supposed uptrend.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

The "commercial" traders of silver futures (reported in the weekly COT Report) are nearly always net short, to varying degrees. The latest reading from Friday's COT Report shows one of the lowest net short positions ever. This is bullish for silver prices.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

19 days

@chicating I'm okay with that, for the reasons stated.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

10 months

The leading indication for stock prices from the Baltic Dry Index agrees with the shift toward seasonal stock market weakness due to start right now.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

There is some resemblance to the 1987 crash right now. SP500 made a higher high in late December, whereas it was a lower high on Oct. 5, 1987. But the time duration from the Nov. 2021 high to now matches that of the Aug. 1987 top to crash duration. Some texture match too.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

9 months

When the market closes up on a Friday, it is a statement of traders' confidence. When it does it on a lot of Fridays, it becomes a more emphatic statement. Years ago, I studied this and found 6 weeks was a good lookback period. DJIA is up 7 of the last 8 Fridays.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 months

Futures markets are reportedly pricing in odds of 7 Fed cuts of .25pp. What the Fed should do is 1 big full-point cut right now, to adjust to what the 2-year is saying. And the 2-year tends to know far better than the Fed's battalion of 400 PhDs about what the FOMC should do.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

Most people are unaware that a golden or death cross which coincides with an accelerated price move often sees that move get reversed at the moment of the crossing. Discussed in this Feb. 2023 article:

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

1 year

Happy golden cross $AMZN

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

The recent gold selloff looks ugly, in dollar terms. But gold priced in yen does not look as bad. When they disagree at bottoms in this way, the yen price tends to know better what is ahead.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

Money supply is like oil in an engine. You only need a small amount to lubricate the valves, pistons, and bearings. But you also have to fill up the oil filter, and keep enough in the crankcase for the oil pump pickup to catch it. Increasing the size of the engine (GDP), but with

Brian Wesbury

@wesbury

1 year

One thing people don’t fully realize, because no journalists report on it and the Fed doesn’t talk about it, is the “unprecedented” changes in the money supply (M2). Inflation was easy to forecast, but now M2 growth is negative. No wonder we have bank problems.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 months

I designed this chart to capture the strong overnight, weak day session effect. As a broad generalization money coming in during the day is better than the money driving overnight futures. The green line crossing below the red line says that the day session money is now lagging.

Linda Raschke

@LindaRaschke

2 months

strong morning, weak afternoon....= cracks in the ice starting.....

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

5 months

People laughed and criticized me when I first posted this here, just as I laughed at it years ago when I first built it (2009). And yet it just keeps on working. QE does interfere with it sometimes, but then the relationship gets back on track again.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

The NYSE's McClellan A-D Oscillator is up to a really high reading of +273. This carries two messages simultaneously: 1. The market is short term overbought, and may see a pullback to relieve that. 2. This is a strong up move which indicates still more strength to come.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 month

Try a 19EMA. You might like it better. Held on every attempt since October 2023, until now.

StockCharts.com

@StockCharts

1 month

Will $SPX close below its 25-day simple moving average? #StockMarket #spx500 #investing

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

Gold has rallied almost 150 points in just over a week. And the ETF crowd is still fleeing out of GLD and IAU, disbelieving the strength. That says we are not (yet) seeing a sentiment blowoff to go along with price, and thus there is more upside yet to come.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 months

The best answer to why central bankers should lower borrowing costs is that the 2-year T-Note yield is telling them they should, and it has a far better track record than the FOMC at knowing what the FOMC should do.

Judy Shelton

@judyshel

4 months

“The expected rate cuts raise a big question: Why would central bankers lower borrowing costs when the economy is experiencing surprisingly strong growth?” Fed will have some explaining to do, acknowledges @jeannasmialek @nytimes even as she asserts that current Fed funds rate of

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

4 months

I beg to differ. The 10y-3m spread has been proficient at foretelling instances of negative real GDP growth, 15 months ahead of time. The reason why it has not "worked" now is that the 15-month lag time has not gone by yet.

Mark Ungewitter

@mark_ungewitter

4 months

An inverted yield curve predicts that current long-term rates will exceed future short-term rates. It doesn’t directly imply recession, which is why I’ve sided with stock-market internals. The message of the yield curve, however, remains a formidable headwind. Never easy, is it?

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

Nasdaq to NYSE total volume ratio is still showing excessive speculation, indicative of a topping condition for prices. Discussed back on March 9 at .

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

23 days

I agree with this. Anyone who willfully denies that we are seeing downtrends in hurricanes, severe tornadoes, droughts, and heat waves is contributing to a big mental health problem in the U.S. and the world, as people fear supposedly catastrophic climate change.

President Biden

@POTUS

24 days

Anyone who willfully denies the impacts of climate change is condemning the American people to a dangerous future.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

1 year

The picture is even more dramatic when we look at M2/GDP. It has NEVER seen a drop like this. Stock prices typically react about a year later.

Liz Ann Sonders

@LizAnnSonders

1 year

Thru January, M2 money supply has contracted 1.7% year/year, which is most negative in history (going back several decades)

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

2 years

One important lesson from history: McClellan Oscillator extremes do matter, but the lowest Oscillator day is often not the final bottom for a down move.

Macro Charts

@MacroCharts

2 years

Stocks are extremely oversold. McClellan Oscillator hit bottom 1% of all days since 2007. Massive capitulation selling, in a strong market *uptrend* testing support – historically a powerful Bullish combination. A potential big Buy opportunity soon – watch closely for turn UP.

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

8 months

As oil prices have rallied to above $90/barrel, the smart money "commercial" traders have been upping their net short position rapidly. Many of these are producers, using futures to lock in pricing for their future production. They are saying this is a good price to lock. [1/3]

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Tom McClellan

@McClellanOsc

12 days

Inflation is bad. And many supposedly intelligent people seem to have collectively lost sight of that. Inflation is a hidden tax, and both the direct effects of it and the supposed antidotes hurt poor people worse. The Fed cannot "control" inflation with the tools they have.

David Taylor

@TurboCertified

12 days

@McClellanOsc what are your thoughts on inflation in general? On May 1 they lowered the return rate for I bonds. is that a signal for rate cuts to come?

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