Right???
How I made my first $10 million:
1. Get up at 5:00AM every day
2. 90 minutes of cardio
3. Take a cold shower
4. Journal
5. Schedule out my day
6. Dad owns multi-billion dollar company
7. Meditate
To be clear, I am NOT in the business of making long-term predictions other than measured moves a la Skalrew. The 2-per ROC is my religion, as well as swing highs and lows and my library of patterns. Each day has a "play". And that is how I made my living for 43 years.
and as long as I am on a midnight rant, "elite trader" and "master" trader semantics used by educators disgust me. total B.S. designed to take your money in the guise of "advanced" trading courses. sticks with the swings highs and lows and gap areas and turn off the TV.
I've never heard anyone mention Hetty Green as the greatest trader. Yet she amassed a fortune of 2.5 billion in 2022 dollars. Did not do bucket shops, pump and dump, or market manipulation. Bet few have read the book on her.
ttps://www.investopedia.com/hetty-green-5214747
A gap that is not traded into for the next 3 days can lead to a move of 2+ weeks in the direction of the gap. This looks distinctly like an H and S bottom with a breakaway gap and if so, expect SMH to trend higher into month end. Just one of many markets with this pattern.
cleaning out my old notebooks, I found all sorts of gems...
"Players tend to get attached to fancy techniques and fail to recognize that subtle internalization and refinement is much more important than the quantity of what is learned." Joshua Waitzkin
more:
Why focus on the process when the world is outcome driven? Don’t results matter?
Yes, results do matter. But if you optimize for the outcome, you win one time.
If you optimize for a process that leads to great outcomes, you can win again and again.
Soros: Theory of Reflexivity states that investors don't base decisions on reality, but rather on their perceptions of reality. The actions that result from these perceptions have an impact on reality which then affects investors' perceptions and thus prices. Got That?!
The largest and longest of duration trends tend to start from moves out of equilibrium points. The SP has spent the past 8 months coiling around this level...Folks tend to underestimate for the duration and the magnitude of moves out of these levels.
"Big wins tend to be accompanied by some combination of bigger decisions, more uncertainty, and greater risk. If you want to play at a higher level, you need to be comfortable with greater swings of highs and lows: mentally, emotionally, financially.
saw this nice quote from James Clear:
The highest level of mastery is simplicity.
Most information is irrelevant and most effort is wasted, but only the expert knows what to ignore.
My trade sheet from 1991 when I first created Neural Net - note to self: "The neural nets are trained on normal market conditions of average volatility....they may under predict in unusual volatility...Caution on politically or economic "hot" days."
I posted this at the start of the year - "ice bath and gratitude" and it went to a different Twitter account! I am going to do it again tomorrow (blow up bathtub in my shower + 2 large bags of ice). Voila!
I never stopped trading even tho I retired from money management. I keep doing this for myself every day. I figured since I get inundated w so many questions it would be helpful to share my process.
came across another gem:
How long does it take to build a habit? 21 days? 30 days? 66 days? The honest answer is: forever. Because once you stop doing it, it is no longer a habit.
A habit is a lifestyle to be lived, not a finish line to be crossed.
We just put together a free ebook for you to download: articles I wrote that have stood the test of time. From Tape Reading Tips to Time Tested Rules and Mental Principles - guidelines for you! 57 pages.
Markets - cant make this stuff up - that Haller Sell signal (broad breadth divergences) was given over a week ago...todays event was the news event that nudged the market in the direction of the technicals 😮
5 SMA plays as promised! Buy on close below 5 SMA, exit on close back above. (Also paid in DOW and RUS). All 4 indexes were also pinball buys on close yesterday.
CF, MRO, OXY, SU, LNG,ADM, and X....it took me 15 years of professional trading before I understood the power of Relative Strength and how and when to use it. When I started my career, I would sit on the dogs waiting for them to catch up.
Damon’s Bday last night. Our anniversary today. Heading up to Koehler spa for the weekend tomorrow. Wishing everyone a lovely weekend. Am most appreciative of our little twitter community. ❤️see you Monday!
I sent a friend a chart of the monthly Vix and he said it looked like the view from his villa on the coast of Spain!
I sort of prefer the view of the latter!
Comment fm a trader friend of 14 yrs: "it's funny how ur trading goals change over time-i've only 2 goals now: not to miss obvious opportunities, and not to make dumb mistakes....everything else falls into place after that-before i was all about r/r and # of trades and winrate."
Buy on new moon, sell on full moon = positive expectation over many years....however, buy on full moon, sell on new moon = losing strategy - so serves as a control against the upward bias to the market.
Dudes: This is nothing more than Wyckoff-study springs and upthrusts. Measured move techniques: study Sklarew-Techniques of a Professional Commodity Chart Analysts. Nothing is 100% & it can take its time working higher. It just helps to keep an open mind. Today is Z-day.
"..to achieve exceptional results:
1) Quantity: You take lots of shots.
2) Quality: You take thoughtful shots.
3) Consistency: You keep shooting for a long time.
4) Feedback. You take better shots over time.
5) Luck: You get a few favorable bounces."
- James Clear
DAX: range expansion out of a three bar triangle pattern at the top, (one of the better short term breakout formations, especially if at the top or bottom of a swing).
SP, Naz, Dow, Rus have OD/ID pattern on the daily charts. Our testing showed this to be one of the more reliable breakout patterns, tho nothing is 100%...
First flight got cancelled. Second flight hit Canadian geese and turned around. Now wAiting for midnight express from sfo to Miami. Marooned in deserted wine bar with new book, charts. Rombauer Chardonnay and pear, cheese and banana my mom packed not so bad!
"New goals don't deliver new results. New lifestyles do.
And a lifestyle is a process, not an outcome.
For this reason, your energy should go into building better habits, not chasing better results."
–
@JamesClear
Great quote from James Clear:
"A surefire way to make a bad situation worse is to continue replaying it in your mind.
The damage is done. The only thing that matters now is making the best choice given your current position.
Next play mentality."
Potential for trend day DOWN in many markets after NR7s, 3 bar triangles and gap down in overnight session(metals currencies index futures)..Oh yes, and a full moon tonight to boot!
Day 9 of an extended run. So far one time framing still. The market usually comes into balance, forming three bars of price overlap before the swing ends.
I always have big picture structure and indicators in mind but still trade one day at a time - the "play for that day". Every day has its own action. My job is to make money for that day. Nobody know where we might be a week from now.
"A lot of problems happen because of your internal state.
When you’re calm, happy, and fulfilled you don’t pick fights, create drama, or keep score."
—
@ShaneAParrish
PDH = previous days high and PDL = previous days low...most important pivots for Taylor and how the market trades around these says everything. test reject? or....the longer it trades around there the higher the odds it will eventually go through.
On a serious note, 1) no trade below 8 AM est opening, 2) no trade below low of NYSE opening (yellow dots) = gap and go, 3) 3 consecutive green bars up in the first 30 minutes. All signs of a strong rend day.
once again, markets go down faster than they go up. note the lovely sell div on ROC and price bar overlap (market coming into balance) at the top of the swing.
Awesome sell short day setup for tomorrow..looking for big continuation to downside. market failed to rally on upside news goosing (except small caps which look like buying climax.
My grandson working on his first Opus...my daughter says it is called "Primitive Percussion"...a little avant-garde but she's sure they'd love it over in Europe...😂
Here is the opposite state: "extended run", one time framing, trending...these moves go further than you think they will. Stay with the trend until the market comes "into balance" or 3 bars price overlap.
The Market job is to do whatever it takes to confuse the most amount of people. I have hear that saying for 40+ years but cant find the source? trading floor lore?
As an old ex-floor trader, I learned the power of skepticism around news spikes. That cynicism has increased every decade. 90% of news spike offer extremely advantageous trade location for either exits or entries....
This was a wonderful example of how the "OD/ID" pattern marked the top of the swing (variation of a 3 bar). Steve Moore originally tested the explosive potential of this. Our testing showed it to be the highest in terms of odds of follow-through after breakout.
SP - 5 minute Candle Volume charts. Notice how nicely the dry up in volume shows up at the top today. This is Damon's chart that he keeps up for his trading room all day. Windotrader+Photon trading platform.
Quote From Humphrey B. Neill's book: "Be a cynic when reading the tape. We must have open minds always, without preconceived opinions... a trader should be a cynic. Doubt all before you believe anything. Realize that you are playing the coldest, bitterest game in the world."
VIX - funny that it is dubbed the "fear" index when it is essentially based on the underlying historic vol. Traders should look instead at the difference between the actually vol and the implied (vix).
So far, perfect "Z-day" following yesterday's trend day. 1) trade on both sides of OP, 2) inflection point top of the first hour (purple dots), 3) 2 BB band trades (exit sma), and 4) Fade the push outside first hours range! Been making these trades for 40 years...