husband, dad,
#Team46
, focused on elevating American entrepreneurs and innovators to achieve energy abundance by deploying at scale. It's simple, not easy.
Who says America can’t do big things?
Loan Programs Office (LPO) announced a conditional commitment of up to $1.52 billion for a loan guarantee to Holtec Palisades to finance the restoration and resumption of service of an 800-MW electric nuclear generating station
#nuclear
“Palisades is coming back,” Whitmer said. “We will lead and build the future here in Michigan with our 100% clean energy by 2040 standard, the strongest clean energy labor standards in the nation, and tools to build more renewable energy faster.”
DOE just released our new Innovative Grid Deployment Liftoff report today – finding we can increase our grid’s capacity to support well above the 2.5% annual growth in the next few years with commercially available advanced grid solutions like
#advancedconductors
#GETs
#VPPs
…
I appreciate the honor from
#Time100
, something I never could have imagined, but I’m just a piece of this story. Under
@SecGranholm
's leadership and the hard work of our team
@ENERGY
we are rebuilding America together, in red & blue states, seizing leadership from China in clean…
Over the next few weeks, the Loan Programs Office is going on the road to talk to Investors and their limited partners. The companies we have provided conditional commitments to are actively raising over $10B of equity in the market today. Companies that have been selected for…
I may eventually buy an EV, but it would be my third car.
I would have a truck for hauling equipment, an ICE car for traveling and the EV for daily commute.
Would I be saving the planet? I seriously doubt it. 🤔
This same thought occurred to me while reading the LPO’s Advanced Geothermal Liftoff report. Don’t have any view, but it did make me wonder about this question
Today we have 400,000 MWs of stand alone battery projects stuck in the interconnection queue because grid operators think the batteries have to be able to charge at the wrong times (at peak) to be interconnected. Makes zero sense.
When you look at dynamic line rating, advanced power flow control, reconductoring and advanced transformers they are not at early stages from a technical standpoint – exactly the opposite. They are technically more mature, but deployment has been lagging in the U.S.
Time to get…
DOE just released our new Innovative Grid Deployment Liftoff report today – finding we can increase our grid’s capacity to support well above the 2.5% annual growth in the next few years with commercially available advanced grid solutions like
#advancedconductors
#GETs
#VPPs
…
Great work by
@BrianJanous
to lay out the opportunity in front of us. Out existing transmission grid is less than 50% utilized so adding load is fairly straightforward —except for 500 hours a year when we have peak loads.
NEW ODD LOTS:
How Utilities Will Handle Booming AI Datacenter Demand
@tracyalloway
and I talked to the perfect guest.
@BrianJanous
was Microsoft's first-ever energy hire in 2011, and now he works with utilities on solving this unexpected demand shock.
Average cash price of a residential solar system in the US, according to
@WoodMackenzie
: $3.25 per watt.
Price in Australia: $0.62 per watt.
Absolutely shameful. There should be a coordinated national effort to solve this.
Must read! Importantly with the Categorical Exemption we are seeing many Utilities use our Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment (1706) program to make reconductoring more affordable. Increase debt to 80% vs 50% and lower interest rates
Everyone (rightly) concerned about the return of rising electricity demand should pay close attention to reconductoring - a wonky but consequential way to get WAY more out of our electric grid. A 🧵
1/12
I agree that America is bearish on our ability to do big things. But it isn’t structural, we can and will fix it. We have 500 new and expanded facilities that have started construction. This is a good book on best practices:
One reason I’m bearish on giant power projects like Vogtle or offshore wind hubs is because construction in this country is riddled with anti-competitive behavior and even corruption that drives up costs and timelines.
Huge projects look like a giant pot of gold for those…
Exciting Development!
Today the
@NYSDPS
and the
#NYSPSC
voted to initiate the "Grid of the Future" proceeding to unlock the value of
#vpps
in New York State. Several times the DPS quoted the
@ENERGY
#vpp
#liftoff
report, including that vpps can serve 10-20% of peak demand by…
I made the difficult decision to move on from Tesla after 18 years yesterday. I am so thankful to have worked with and learned from the countless incredibly talented people at Tesla over the years.
I loved tackling nearly 🤣 every problem we solved as a team and feel gratified…
@octaviaspencer
If you look at Vogtle Unit 4 and take the exact same costs/schedule with today’s IRA incentives you get roughly $120/MWh for a new AP1000. If you build it 4 years faster with the same supply chain/overnight cost you are probably at $95/MWh. America can do big things but we have…
Feel like that’s not how this works. If you want to add 25,000 MWs of 24/7 AI load and you have a public commitment to 24/7
#cleanfirm
power than you need to figure out how to solve these hurdles.
One hurdle to nuclear development in the US is we have both among the highest cost structure for construction and the lowest electricity prices in the world. Makes the economics tough. Hence, of the +/- 60 reactors under construction around the world, none are in the US.
Giving 25,000 MWs of new AI load a pass from sticking to 24/7
#cleanfirm
goals is not a good take. It can both be the case that data center load will remain less than 5% of total electricity load and be extraordinarily disruptive if not paired with new
#cleanfirm
power…
This episode of Shift Key with
@jgkoomey
is an excellent intervention into the hype around rising AI power demand. TL;DR: compute is a small part of nat'l electricity usw & is likely to stay so; demand projections are reliably exaggerated; most of all...
EPA has announced $20 billion in grants for a national clean financing network! The eight selected applicants will work together to make accessible, affordable financing for clean projects a reality for communities across the country. 🤝
This was so much fun! Great podcast and happy 1st bday to
@heatmap_news
!
Investing in America is working. We have 600 facilities under construction or expanding across our country. Towns like the one I grew up in were hollowed out in the 1990s, they are coming back.
I'm off for this week's Shift Key, but don't worry,
@robinsonmeyer
has
@JigarShahDC
on this week's episode, and that's a very fair trade!
Listen here (or wherever you get your pods):
These are great podcasts!
I even did a spicy one with
@drvolts
on the essential nature of
#nuclear
and 24/7
#cleanfirm
power in a Decarbonized grid by 2035.
It has come to my attention that I have done insufficient self-promotion & some of you don't even know I have a podcast.
I do! It's called Volts & it's about clean energy. And -- if I may say so myself -- it's been on a bit of a roll lately. A 🧵.
@TheStalwart
We can get to 2-5 GWs by 2030. If that happens, the West becomes cost effective ($110/Mwh to $70/Mwh) which unlocks another set of states. Which then helps West reach $45/Mwh by 2035 and unlocks another region. 90 GWs by 2050. We need ~600GWs by then…
On this
#EarthDay2024
we have never been more serious about emissions reductions while onshoring/reshoring our supply chain. With over 600 new or expanded facilities announced I think there is a lot to be excited about.
Majority of Americans want home backup power. About one in seven have backup power. The most common backup power sources in the United States are portable gas generators (25%), followed by standby generators (10%), and
#solar
and installed
#storage
(5%).
Our deal processing timelines have been too long, with some taking two years based on complicated paperwork. This has been streamlined and we are now regularly having deals go from a full due diligence packages to closing in 6-9 months.
“This is a watershed moment for the industry,” said Harley Shaiken, a professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, who has followed the U.A.W. for more than three decades. “It sets an example that would resonate across the industry, and across other industries…
Glad to see the launch of our Offshore Wind
#Liftoff
report today! We worked with hundreds of folks to put together a consistent dataset with the private sector. TLDR: things look tough now but we have a good plan to GWs of new capacity.
A great case study from AES and Linevision published yesterday. Much more detailed than other than case studies so far — so what we want to see more of from utilities!
Cost data: cites DLR at $45k/mile vs basic reconductoring at $590k/mile.
But capacity impact >60% in winter…
🎉 We're thrilled to share our case study with
@TheAESCorp
w early insights from the largest
#DynamicLineRatings
deployment in the US!
💭The study highlights DLR's potential to transform grid monitoring, enhancing operations & asset investment.
➡️
Just finished this great piece from
@kairyssdal
and
@byHeatherLong
. We have 500 new and expanded facilities under construction. Most of the near-term jobs are in construction— union halls are pulling folks from neighboring States.
We need to get more out of the grid we have already paid for!
“While FERC should do all that it can, other policymakers and interested parties can also play an important role in furthering GETs adoption. The Department of Energy’s recent “Innovative Grid Deployment” Liftoff…
We can unlock about 30% more capacity from the grid we have already paid for at a cost of about $10B. This includes dynamic line ratings, network topology optimization, and other common sense solutions
The setup for future U.S. power demand, driven in part by coming data center/AI processing needs, is the most obvious long-term macro trend I’ve ever seen.
Choose your fighter: tech hardware, real estate, power production, electrical infrastructure, picks and shovels, etc.
@octaviaspencer
My sense is that we will see 80% of new generation continue to be
#solar
,
#wind
,
#storage
but you will see 10 GW of new nuclear announcements over the next 18 months in the USA. We will also see 2 GW of new geothermal announced in the same timeframe. Everyone will coexist just…
Deploying these solutions at scale could support almost 100 GW of higher demand when deployed individually. Lots more capacity possible when you deploy them together – well above NERC’s forecasts for demand growth (which will be updated higher soon).
And while we are doing all of that we do need more
#cleanfirm
generation.
#Geothermal
is ready to take off in the West while
#nuclear
power is ready for the same throughout the country
Huge permitting reform news:
The Bureau of Land Management is giving geothermal energy exploration a categorical exclusion from environmental review under NEPA.
If you care about clean energy abundance, this is a massive win.
@DanielleFong
“DOE identified over 80,000 different distribution transformer varieties nationwide. Many are legacy specifications that utilities could modify if they would accept more universal transformer designs and standard accessories included with the”
With new appliances coming with an app on your phone, we can shift peak load using demand flexibility for 20% of the grid by 2030 at a cost that is 90% less than business as usual to help get more out of the grid and generation we have already paid for
This report covers twenty technologies across the transmission and distribution system. There’s a solution for energy challenge here – no excuses not to start looking at how to
#deploydeploydeploy
today.
Most importantly we now have a track record of success. While a few deals fail, the portfolio returns for Infra and Corporate equity investors have met or exceeded benchmarks while meeting publicly state goals from investors around their interest to allocate capital to unlock the…
NIPSCO is planning four(!) RFPs as part of its 2024 IRP process -- including the first utility RFP for DER resources I have ever seen in Indiana.
Opportunities for renewables, batteries, long-duration storage, DERs, and other resource options. ?
LPO’s mission is to be the premier public financing partner that accelerates high-impact energy and manufacturing investments to advance America’s economic future.
When we came into office we had to get access to the best deals. Ones with good sponsors, well structured deals. We have accomplished most of that. There are still some high quality projects that are afraid to use LPO because of a perception of increased scrutiny.
We have upwards of $25-30B transmission projects we’re working on right now with more coming in -- especially on reconductoring.
Key grid technologies:
New HVDC lines
VPPs -- $3B Hestia deal
Advanced conductors and potentially some GETs with reconductoring and repurposing…
“Holtec Palisades is the first project to be offered a conditional commitment through the Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment under 1706, first authorized and appropriated by President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.”
Google, Microsoft, and Nucor have an RFI on the street to figure out how to get this done. But when utilities have started to make this happen many of negotiators for the hyper scale data centers have demurred and are thinking of abandoning their 24/7
#cleanfirm
goals. Everyone…
As the urgency to decarbonize our
#electricgrid
intensifies, leaders recognize the need for innovative solutions. Enter the 24/7 carbon-free electricity transition tariff — a new tool to accelerate the shift to cleaner,
#renewableenergy
.
“In the US, approximately 7% of the 75 million single-family homes undergo re-roofing each year, resulting in over 5 million new roofs installed annually.”
For comparison we install less than 1 million new
#solar
rooftops per year. Just focusing on the reroof market could 5x…
More importantly, with extreme weather events/wildfires, these solutions can improve grid reliability and resilience. Distribution reliability solutions like
#FLISR
could help reduce grid outages 10-20%.
@octaviaspencer
To get
#nuclear
there we need 5-10GW of each design to get the
#workforce
trained,
#supplychain
, and a proven integrate project delivery model that could convince an IPP that we have schedule/price certainty in a deregulated market - price of $60-$100b. Not much compared to our…
@MichaelWWara
@californiapuc
Need to get over 100,000+ behind-the-meter in the game…
“The biggest battery in the world is located in garages around California and they are helping keep the lights on for everyone. While it goes largely unrecognised by utilities and grid operators” - Bernadette Del Chiaro
Like most debt shops our goal is to shift risk to equity investors. But because of our public mandate we do important work to evaluate technology risk leveraging the experts within DOE/National Labs. On execution risk, we are playing an increasing role on mega-projects best…
An all-new, original 20+ page activity book and online game for kids!
Addressing climate change becomes more urgent every year. The good news is, the Inflation Reduction Act signed by
@POTUS
is the largest investment in climate action & clean energy in the history of the U.S.…
We will spend over $100B in new generation and $23B in new grid investments each year. A subset of these solutions would cost $10B by 2030 -- so they aren't expensive and are quick to deploy. Deploying
#DLR
at scale across the US would be less than $10B and support ~30% more…
Yes, we have over 2000 GW of
#renewables
and
#storage
wading through a 5+ year interconnection timeline. Paying for these advanced grid solutions to get connected faster is worth it to the generators trying to connect faster. Also
#storage
shouldn't have to wait in this line at…
@octaviaspencer
To get
#geothermal
across the Bridge to Bankability we only need 2-5GW of new generation by 2030 at a cost of $25b to get down to less than $70/MWh by 2030 and $45/MWh soon after. It works in 5-6 states now and will be nationwide by 2050.
Many of these solutions are already broadly deployed overseas – including in Europe, parts of Asia, Australia. The US needs to catch up – this will take utilities, regulators, and policymakers prioritizing these solutions.
And many of these solutions were developed in the US.…
To get to
#Liftoff
, utilities need to deploy solutions that will make electricity more affordable for all ratepayers while supporting their economic development mission. Regulators, policymakers, and broader industry need to support with fixing planning and incentives. This…
We have piloted these solutions to death – especially overseas in Europe and Asia. We need more US deployments. Especially since many of these technologies were founded in the US – including with DOE investment (like DLR that DOE helped pioneer over a decade ago)…
@octaviaspencer
In the liftoff series at DOE we leverage the work we did in 2021 showing we need 2,000 GW of generating capacity by 2050 (lots of
#solar
,
#wind
, &
#storage
) but also need 700-900 GW of additional clean firm capacity by 2050, next-gen
#geothermal
and
#nuclear
are two great choices…
Together we've:
- relaunched the dormant LPO platform and built out the team to support the office’s expanded loan authority granted by Congress
- established a private-sector led, government-enabled approach to the energy transition, engaging hundreds of stakeholder…
But to capture the power of markets, we need to look at how to get the incentives right for IOUs in ways that are also good for American households. This could look like performance-based regulation (PBR) and shared savings incentives, which some states have already started…
And we need to build a culture of
#innovation
. Industry norms need to start embracing and build systems that support adoption of new and better solutions. It’s a disservice to American customers if we don’t.
These solutions reduce energy bills for ratepayers. Data centers could be paying for 24/7
#cleanfirm
tariffs for the costs of these upgrades to quickly connect to service their
#AI
needs -- we can win
#AI
here in the USA if everyone coordinated. New generators could pay for…
Cost plus contracts can lead to bad behavior for building power plants or ships…
Using an integrated project delivery model aligns interests and is being used to build the
#nuclear
plant for
@opg
Glad to see this coming together. As we look to deploy solutions to decarbonize airline travel,
#SAF
will be an important solution. It will require a more thoughtful approach to feedstock, offtake, technology scale-up and policy.
We’re excited to announce that the Sustainable Aviation Coalition has officially launched.
We’re a nonprofit, nonpartisan coalition of aviation industry stakeholders who share the goal of accelerating the development and scaled use of
#SAF
.
Learn more:
While data center load is likely to remain less than 5% of total load while we 2x sales by 2050, they can be the most disruptive loads to site. Co-locating with 24/7
#cleanfirm
generation could help them integrate with less disruption.
A
#nuclear
renaissance is always around the corner. This time we have done the work to get all of the parties to answer the question, “what do you have to believe to get 7+ GW of new nuclear of one design?”
This doesn’t mean all the parties will close the remaining gaps…
Every adminstration in my lifetime as been 'pro nuclear-power,' at least on paper. This is the first one in a long time to actually do anything productive.
Biden administration will lend $1.5B to restart Michigan nuclear power plant, a first in the US
@SecGranholm
@TIME
Thank you 🙏
It has been my honor to work amongst the smartest people in my career doing the most important work we can do right now!
You can certainly just connect the load and abandon your clean energy commitments. But feels like a heavy lift after a commercial like this one with
@octaviaspencer
@TomWWhittington
In general we invest about $50-$60B per year of “large” solar/wind. Add batteries and we might add another $10B per year - and that is amazing. Investing $10b/yr to scale up enhanced geothermal, nuclear, hydro, and long duration energy storage is critical to resiliency/diversity.
If we want to reduce the cost of
#residentialsolar
in the US, we need to acquire customers in a way that cheaper and more consumer friendly. The 60 selected applicants will receive $7B to try out new approaches to deploy rooftop
#solar
for all Americans. Many are State Govts.
Several recent FERC orders will support greater adoption, so expect that to drive more investment:
- Order 881 = requires utilities to use ambient adjusted ratings (AAR). FERC should extend this to include DLR, but this is at least a step in the right direction.
- Order 2222 =…
Federal/state policymakers and state regulators play an important role here – both in setting the direction and clearly signaling to industry that they need to start pursuing cost-effective advanced grid solutions AND in updated economic regulation to align incentives.
And it…
Where we have seen more upticks in deployment:
- Some distribution automation solutions have been gaining more traction – particularly ADMS (advanced distribution management systems) and DERMS distributed energy resource management systems), which are important perquisites to…
@CostaSamaras
Problem is that many projects that have approvals have PPAs from 2019 that are underwater so they are not moving forward yet until they renegotiate the PPAs. But they are clogging the queue. Everyone needs to move a Texas process. Approve all that are safe to interconnect/curtail
@Stphn_Lacey
Data Centers are actively trying to get 25,000 MWs of interconnections by 2030. Could be they get way more compute from that fixed load, but no amount of efficiency changes the applications into the utility for grid connections in direct competition with manufacturing connections
@tylerhnorris
@HarrisBerton
Feel like the big argument not made here is demand charges currently provide a discount to 24/7 loads vs loads with a part-time character. So in fact demand charges don’t charge more for inflexible loads that raise system peak (the opposite)?
Yes, we need to update our regulatory structures to get the incentives in place to make sure that utilities’ incentives are aligned with good customer outcomes.
We’ll likely need a combination of both carrots & sticks to get broad deployment, such as FERC’s recent orders to…
@HarrisBerton
@tylerhnorris
Agreed. I wouldn’t say existing tariffs are optimizing for flexibility/peak costs. Feels like we either have to encourage flexibility to access discounts or ask folks to act like they are flexible (pay for local generation/storage the load pays for to reduce their impact at peak)
@Guzzak
This is where everyone is going. Any loads that are not interruptible impose costs on everyone using the system. So you are starting to see those costs being fully charged to offending non-interruptible loads. Also Governors are starting to impose the same rules.
@Nuclearjunkie
Not really. You can add an AP1000 (or 2) to almost every one of our existing 54 nuclear sites across 28 states. It is true that we don’t want to be building single unit AP1000s at retiring coal plants. Also many export markets wants this design instead of importing LNG.
There are many articles like this one that misunderstand the words “private sector led, government enabled.” There is a presumption that the amount of money that has been disbursed by our office or grants are a reflection of our priorities. We fund projects that the private…
Folks are working with local
Community Colleges to train workers but the operating jobs are harder to plan. Most of these facilities are finishing construction and ramping up in 2025-2027. Training has to start now but jobs are coming when they ramp up production.
@drvolts
They aiming for $20/kwh CAPEX and with their round trip efficiency you really only want to dispatch them when wholesale market prices go above $1XX/MWh. So the technology can do the job but you are unlikely to use it for daily/work week storage.
@richardbranson
@TIME
@VirginUnite
Honored.
As Carbon War Room president, Jose Maria Figueres, has said, “There is no Planet B.”
I learned a lot from Richard Branson. He is thoughtful, smart, tenacious, and every bit a capitalist. The tension between his good work at Virgin Unite and his desire to build the next…
For decades we were told Americans couldn’t build big things anymore, that is changing. We are investing in people, processes, and risk management. It will take some time, but confidence is building. We have always been the best at innovation, now we have to do the same for…
People are making sacrifices to shift themselves into a family sustaining job. We need that across millions of new positions coming online through 2030, but the path won’t be a straight line and we owe it to folks to be transparent about the ups and downs.…
As the urgency to decarbonize our
#electricgrid
intensifies, leaders recognize the need for innovative solutions. Enter the 24/7 carbon-free electricity transition tariff — a new tool to accelerate the shift to cleaner,
#renewableenergy
.
Even after they start hiring demand for their products are not solid. Most facilities may ramp up and down between 20% and 60% of capacity as they solidify orders and grow their market. Along the way they might be losing money until they get their costs down.…
Next focus on
@FERC
and the new Grid Deployment Liftoff report. For $10B you could unlock almost 30% more capacity from the grid we already have. Reconductoring gets you even more while we build new lines
DOE just released our new Innovative Grid Deployment Liftoff report today – finding we can increase our grid’s capacity to support well above the 2.5% annual growth in the next few years with commercially available advanced grid solutions like
#advancedconductors
#GETs
#VPPs
…