Is Africa set for a backlash against military rule in 2024?
Many citizens think coups are justified if leaders abuse their power.
But many more reject military rule and expect a return to constitutional government.
Delays in elections and failure to provide services will
Sad to see Kenyan media - having been so slow for so long - stop counting to avoid telling the Kenyan people who won the 2022 elections.
Are you for free + fair elections or not?
If you were not going to finish, why start?
@NationAfrica
@citizentvkenya
#KenyansDecides2022
The Ugandan Electoral Commission just released this as an “official” results form to dispel rumours of rigging. Hilariously and shockingly, it shows ballot manipulation. The number of votes cast don’t add up. Here’s how it was fixed
@Smith_JeffreyT
@HEBobiwine
@klup
Please, disregard the misleading information on a doctored DR Form. The DR Form with genuine results as received and uploaded on the Electoral Commission website, is provided here.
Death threats through a fake obituary (with tweaked name) for an opposition allied figure. Very worrying times for Kenya, and sad for those who write for the Nation that this was published. A full explanation is needed or many of us columnists will have no option but to resign.
Hi folks, can everyone stop with the buffoon in the White House for 48 hours? The gov't of Zimbabwe is waging a war on democracy. A nationwide protest is planned for *tomorrow* 31 July. The response will be nasty. Pay attention. Bear witness.
#Thread
. 1/6
#Zimbabwe
#watchzimbabwe
BREAKING NEWS Few people in the international community seem to be paying attention but this looks a lot like the start of civil war in Ethiopia. If this slide is not halted its will be the biggest & most damaging development of the decade 1/4
#ethiopia
Two questions arise now it is confirmed that President
#Magufuli
is in hospital in Kenya. 1. Can the Tanz government really hope to cover up his COVID status in another country? 2. How sad and telling is it that he didn’t trust a single Tanzanian hospital to treat him?
#Tanzania
BREAKING NEWS: Tanzanian President Magufuli is said to be seriously ill. I heard from 2 different sources days ago that he has COVID but wanted to avoid hospital given his stance it is not that bad. So don’t expect the government to be forthcoming with info ...
#COVID19
#magufuli
Today I resigned from my column at the
@dailynation
. Writing it was an honour, but is no longer tenable. I resign to protest the growing infringement on media freedom. I resign to show solidarity with the voices that have been silenced. I resign because we must live our beliefs.
Big development in the Kenyan elections. Contacting party agents to get original forms 34A from disputed polling stations, the BBC did not find a single discrepancy
In other words there is “no evidence of interference”
🧵
#Kenya
#kenyaelections2022
Tanzania is moving to a straightforward authoritarian dictatorship. Opposition leaders now arrested on trumped up terrorism charges. Why terrorism? Because it means they can't get bail. Hard to see any democracy left here
#TanzaniaElections2020
#Tanzania
Let’s be clear: the Tanzanian election is worse than the Zimbabwean election 2018 by the same point- & we know how that ended. The silence of other African and international countries is deafening.
#Thread
1/4
#TanzaniaElections2020
#TanzaniaElectionsWatch
Nice of
@dailynation_KE
to run my analysis on the Kenyan election
But I think you guys forgot I don’t write for you anymore 🤣🤣
You might want to ask before you copy paste my work these days …
For those who would prefer to read the original 👇
BREAKING NEWS: Tanzanian President Magufuli is said to be seriously ill. I heard from 2 different sources days ago that he has COVID but wanted to avoid hospital given his stance it is not that bad. So don’t expect the government to be forthcoming with info ...
#COVID19
#magufuli
BBC why are you not reporting this as a coup. It is a coup. Like Zimbabwe was. Call things what they are otherwise you sanitise authoritarian regimes. The name matters because it triggers sanctions and greater condemnation.
#MaliCoup
@AndrewWJHarding
Tundu Lissu now released after being interrogated and warned at a police station. Appears that international attention and pressure from diplomats embarrassed at his arrest at their gates may have played a role ...
How (not) to lose an election
Don't mention the name of the winner
List vague grievances with institutions even though the SC made it clear the petition was full of misinformation
Trash your own legacy + make the other guy look more presidential
Special stuff
#KenyaElections
Having fact checked + challenged some election rigging accusations, it is worth making it clear that the election was not perfect
There are areas where
@IEBCKenya
will want to perform better next time + make for reasonable criticism
Here are a few:
🧵1/5
#KenyanElection2022
The complicity of multinational companies in election rigging is a scandal. Shame on
@VodafoneGroup
for agreeing to support censorship in the Tanzanian election. This should be taken up in every country
@VodafoneUK
operates.
#TanzaniaElections2020
Sad to see
@makaumutua
+
@PaulMMwangi
attacking the Supreme Court, one of the most positive additions to Kenya’s democratic landscape, because they lost an election
This would be sent back if handed in by an undergrad, and is embarrassingly inferior to the SC judgement
Shame
Tanzania is moving to a straightforward authoritarian dictatorship. Opposition leaders now arrested on trumped up terrorism charges. Why terrorism? Because it means they can't get bail. Hard to see any democracy left here
#TanzaniaElections2020
#Tanzania
#BreakingNews
High Court in Lusaka orders the restoration or normal internet services.
Zambia’s democratic institutions are standing up to be counted - in part because they understand the mood for change.
A major development.
#ZambiaDecides2021
#ZambiaVotes
BREAKING NEWS: growing reports from inside & outside the compound that the security forces are moving in, presumably to arrest Bobi Wine. Share and keep watching. The worst we feared is happening. World media should be covering this on the front page.
#UgandaElection
#BobiWine
The US election is clearly a good time to bury bad news. Authoritarian leaders around the world have rushed to arrest dissidents & launch military attacks while global attention is elsewhere. This is my list-what have you got?
#WhileAmericaVotes
#BuryingBadNews
#USAElections2020
Enough is enough. "As someone whose career has depended on the ability to travel easily to African countries — and on the kindness of African people and researchers — it is a personal as well as a national embarrassment."
Far too early to congratulate
@IEBCKenya
, as the official election count has not even begun
But one striking thing about the claims of rigging now coming out is that no evidence has been provided to support them
Let’s take a look … 🧵
#KenyaDecides2022
#KenyanElection2022
“The figures declared by Chebukati are null and void and should be found so by a court of law”
Raila is doubling down here. No evidence presented so far.
Will he lose his reputation as well as the election?
#KenyaDecides2022
#KenyanElection2022
The complicity of multinational companies in election rigging is a scandal. Shame on
@VodafoneGroup
for agreeing to support censorship in the Tanzanian election. This should be taken up in every country
@VodafoneUK
operates.
#TanzaniaElections2020
Daily Nation doubling down on trying to build antagonism between the rival coalitions in the Kenyan elections tomorrow.
It’s like a newspaper being edited by three people at once - only one of which has a handle on balance and ethics.
Check out …
🧵
1/3
The current actions of the Ugandan government are a great example of what can happen if you turn a blind eye to authoritarian tendencies in order to secure development gains - sooner or later the regime reverts to type
@Smith_JeffreyT
@Winnie_Byanyima
...
The conflict in Ethiopia demonstrates what many already new: authoritarian development is a bad bet in Africa. Aid models should change to stop channelling so much money to authoritarian regimes. The most important piece I wrote this year.
#aid
#Ethiopia
#ZimDecide2018
I have seen mass demonstrations all over the world. I have seen angry opposition parties and unreasonable protestors. But I have yet to see one in which was necessary to shoot anyone. Especially in the back.
For those interested in my personal reasons for resigning today, after recently saying that I would try to continue, here is my resignation letter to Nation colleagues saying farewell and explaining why I felt I was left with no choice.
#NMGExodus
Wonderful scenes in Zambia as President Lungu concedes defeat
Such an honour to be here to see this incredible moment
Well done to the Zambian people who fought for & won this victory
And to all those who kept the democratic light on in dark authoritarian days
#ZambiaDecided
Police have arrested the whole ACT leadership in Zanzibar and one of the leader was beaten to near death. We are not sure if he is still alive and he is in custody
The criminalisation of the opposition in Africa. In honour of the bravery of Bobi Wine, Tundu Lissu & Hopewell Chin’ono I look at the growing harassment and arrest of gov’t critics and the use of “lawfare” to keep dictators in power.
@TheAfricaReport
#BREAKING
New data analysis suggests how the Ugandan elections were manipulated
As we would expect (eg from
#HowtoRig
) most manipulation was done in government heartlands where it could exert greater control over process
@Smith_JeffreyT
@HEBobiwine
There has been: 1) more censorship, 2) more killing, 3) more attempts to stop opposition candidates standing, 4) more interference with the Internet ... and it is going to get much worse. 2/4
#tanzaniadecides
#TanzaniaFree
Those who believe in free speech and democracy should boycott
@VodafoneGroup
immediately in every country. Blocking messages supporting the opposition makes the company complicit in authoritarian abuse. UK regulators should investigate immediately.
Heartbreaking to see the Kenyan elections fall apart
Explosive claims being made, including by 4 IEBC commissioners
Interesting that despite making a statement that may rip the country apart they provided no evidence + took no questions
Watch this space
#KenyanElection2022
Our new book on the Politics of Development is a thing!
Led by the brilliant Claire Mcloughlin, we try and create a fresh + engaging introduction to the controversial, contested and deeply political topic of development.
You can pre-order here 👇
1/2
We don't talk about this enough: There is a real chance Bobi Wine will be killed during this election campaign. That would be a tragedy for his family, the elections & Uganda. No one should have to take these risks just to stand in an election.
#BobiWine
#UgandaDecides2021
A growing number of analyses suggest that some of the "screenshots" included in the recent Githongo and Wesonga affidavits are - and I choose my words carefully - not fully credible.
I'm still looking at this, but a number of those ...
🧵1/3
#kenyaelections2022
#Kenya
Let’s tell it like it is. When the ruling party “wins” 225 of 230 seats you don’t have a meaningful multiparty system, but a one-Party State masquerading as a democracy. In 20 years time we will talk about Magufuli like we do Mugabe. So sad for Tanzania.
#TanzaniaElectionsWatch
The violence will be worst on the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba, as CCM struggles to assert political control. We could see a return to 2001 when so many died. And yet the world is silent.
@Smith_JeffreyT
@burke_jason
@hrw
@JDevermont
Why other African states should not follow the "Rwandan model". A new piece for
@TC_Africa
born of out my frustration with people telling me that things would be better in their country if only their president could "do a Kagame"
LAUNCH! We at DIA are proud to launch the decolonizing the commentariat contact list. Brilliant researchers and commentators from across Africa who can provide exceptional insights and expertise on key issues. 1/5
#BlackInTheIvory
Facebook just reminded me of a letter I received from Zambia's new President Hakainde Hichilema when he was an opposition leader & had just got out of jail.
I was amazed to receive it (as my role was tiny).
Amazing how things have changed ...
@HHichilema
@ssishuwa
@NixiiB
And we're back ... many of the columnists who recently left
@dailynation
will be contributing to the new, exciting, **East African Review** in the future - free analysis and insights just the way you like it. Check it out now
Very sad to hear of the death of Zambian Chief Justice Irene Mambilima
Among other things, she will be remembered as the 1st female CJ & Chair of the Electoral Commission of Zambia who announced an opposition victory in the 2011 elections under intense political pressure
I hear that opposition leaders in Tanzania seeking protection from arrest - & possible torture - by a government that just manipulated the general elections are being turned away by international embassies and ambassadors. Actions speak louder than tweets.
#Tanzaniaelections
Reports of arrests of opposition leaders are extremely concerning. I urge the Government to ensure the safety and security of all opposition leaders, cease these targeted arrests, release detainees, restore telecommunications, and afford due process under the law to all citizens.
Prime Minister Abiy doubling down today, as he starts using the election as a way to claim a stronger mandate.
“There is no hunger in Tigray” is a straight out lie, and an awful one at that.
@RAbdiAnalyst
@KjetilTronvoll
So I said the Tanzania election could be worse than Zimbabwe’s ...it is now looking more like Rwanda. Of 230 constituencies announced, 225 have been “won” by the ruling party. No pretence of democracy. No attempt to make it credible
#TanzaniaElections2020
Obituary Alex Magaisa: Teacher, Mentor, Ally, Inspiration
A tribute to my great friend in
@guardian
, written with the help of many others who shared what Alex meant to them
It is a shortened/edited version of this longer text 👇
Hearing really worrying news that an attempted kidnapping of Tanzanian opposition leader Tundu Lissu is in progress. He survived an assassination attempt in 2017 and bravely returned to contest for the elections year. Let’s try and keep him safe. Please retweet.
#ProtectTundu
Results coming in all the time, but *as things stand* opposition leader Hichilema has a **740,000** lead over President Lungu
To put that in perspective, Lungu won the 2016 election by just 100,000
This is one of the biggest wins in Zambian history
#ZambiaVotes2021
@NixiiB
Worrying reports of a further round of human rights abuses being committed in Tigray by the returning forces, with those seen to have collaborated with the Ethiopian government being targeted.
These atrocities need to be condemned in just as stringent terms.
#Ethiopia
"There are five warnings I always look for - organized militias, a leader who is not prepared to lose, distrust of the political system, disinformation, and a potentially close contest. Right now, the U.S. has all five.” Always a pleasure
@brianklaas
@RoryStewartUK
Thanks for this-would be great if you could also call out the multinational firms that are assisting the electoral manipulation, e.g.
@VodacomTanzania
blocking messages about opposition candidates. This is a UK registered company committing abuses abroad
Opposition leader Hichilema has just reached 2.1 million votes.
Based on a turnout of 72.3%, he needs 2,538,996 to secure the 50%+1 needed for a first round victory.
At the current speed of results, he may get there in the current batch of results.
We are minutes away !!
Now that’s why they call it the warm heart of Africa ... A beautiful send off from Malawi ... and I challenge anyone on Twitter to come up with a more amazing (early) birthday cake for a workaholic academic ...
Love you all
#Malawi
#WarmHeart
#AcademicTwitter
#AcademicChatter
A few (very early) thoughts on the Azimio petition.
Let’s start with the strengths:
1. the KPMG audit did indeed raise a number of concerning points that need to be investigated
2. is true that the absence of elections for …
🧵 1/7
#KenyansDecides2022
#KenyanElection2022
The Kenyan presidential election is so incredibly close there is only one thing you can be sure of.
If anyone tells you they *know* who has won, they are lying.
#Kenya
#KenyaElections
#KenyanElection2022
Look at the single digit votes - in each case the person filling out the form has written 06, 01, 02 etc. When it comes to Bobi Wine’s vote they have written 8. This is because he didn’t get 8 votes but 84 votes, so there is no zero to the left of the 8 ...
"We respectfully urge the international community to refrain from any unwelcome and unlawful acts of interference” says Abiy ... as he commits unwelcome and unlawful human rights abuses in contravention of international law ...
#Ethiopia
#Abiy
Zambia is set to become one of a small number of African countries to experience three transfers of power via the ballot box.
Can you name the others ?
#ZambiaDecides2021
#ZambiaVotes2021
#Zambia
Serena 4 presser now on
Started very badly for their credibility
Claim a big problem is that the results stated added to 100.1% which is “mathematically impossible”
It’s not impossible it’s the product of rounding the numbers …
#KenyanElection2022
#KenyaDecides2022
In Zimbabwe, things came to a head as opposition supporters protested electoral manipulation and an unfair system. It will be the same in Tanzania & there will be further loss of life. This is not just likely; it is probable. 3/4
#TanzaniaElectionsWatch
Taylor&Francis journals are introducing a two tier system where wealthy individuals from wealthy institutions can get better and quicker service.
This is a truly horrible development that will reinforce global knowledge inequalities.
@tandfonline
🧵
For broader context, it is worth keeping in mind that allowing "effective" leaders to rig elections and pursue authoritarian strategies today leads to more mass protests against ineffective "old men" running their countries into the ground tomorrow ...
Hi All, thanks for all the responses. Wow. Just to say, again, that we are sorry if the piece comes across as minimising the risks/dangers/violence. That was not our intention - and we emphasise it twice ... so sorry if it read like that.
Amazing BBC interview with Moses Kuria, saying what everyone knew but often goes unsaid: Kenyan MPs were given $1,000 each to vote for
#BBI
& Amos Kimunya was “appointed not elected” as Majority Leader in Parliament after paying $1000 per vote.
#Kenya
#Thread
@HonMoses_Kuria
Also important to state that getting 46,201 digital scans onto a public portal within days of an election, with many of them up within 24 hours, is impressive
There are many many elections in "established" democracies that do not achieve this logistical feat of transparency
👏
This is massive. The Chief Justice of Kenya just told the president to dissolve parliament for its *repeated* failure to enact the constitutional law of no more than two-third of MPs being from then same gender. A second milestone from Maraga after nullifying the 2017 election.
Tanzania's October elections are already flawed. Opposition candidates couldn't register, media is censored & activists are scared to speak. What comes next could be worse. We need to stop thinking of Tanzania as being in a different category to Zimbabwe. A thread 1/5
#Tanzania
As I argued in my column on the FIVE STAGES OF POLITICAL GRIEF, some people get stuck in denial …
… in part because they can’t process defeat, and in part because it is one way to try and stay relevant …
If this doesn’t scare the hell out of you for Ethiopia, nothing will. “Ethiopian military deliver ultimatum to population of Tigray’s capital:
“free themselves” from rebel leaders or be offered “no mercy” in a coming assault on the city.”
@burke_jason
Prominent journalists are being abducted, arrested, and worse. "Journalism" has been criminalised. Hopewell Chin'ono and Mduduzi Mathuthu are just two of the people that have been targeted. This is a prolonged assault on media freedom.
@amnesty
@hrw
2/6
Wow can’t believe so many people watched this video!
I think this is maybe a good time to re-up our article that sadly predicted this months ago & warned against seeing new leaders through rose tinted glasses
@HilaryMatfess
@fatma_karume
@ThabitSenior
"This is the criminalization of the opposition in
#Tanzania
...We need to be clear that this isn’t an isolated incident."
@Fromagehomme
joins us to discuss the arrest of Tanzania’s opposition leader and the country’s overall crackdown on dissent.
@freemanmbowetz
@CNNAfrica
The way things are going it’s not just that the
@NationAfrica
is undermining any credibility it had left as a newspaper - it is actively increasing the risk it will be accused of undermining national unity and the public good if the election goes wrong.
#BreakingNews
Minor candidates in the Zambian election accept defeat and some even reference opposition leader Hichilema or speak about being part of a transfer of power.
The pressure on the ruling party and President Lungu is building by the hour.
#ZambiaVotes2021
As the form stands, the votes cast add up to just 224 votes. Yet the form tells us that 300 votes were cast. Guess what change to the form would make the results correct? Yes, you’ve got it, the results all add up if Bobi Wine got 84 votes. This means that ...
Really sad to see the the flawed and scaremongering coverage of the Kenyan election in
@NationAfrica
today.
Making up statements that one candidate will go after another based on inferences from general lines in a manifesto is deeply unethical.
🧵 1/3
#Ruto
#Kenyatta
#Kenya
Opposition wins in Malawi! Chakwera defeated President Mutharika with around 59% of the vote - we were 1% off in our prediction. MEC will announce at lunchtime: question now is what the ruling party will do. Still no concession ...
#malawi2020
#MalawiDecides
#MalawiElections2020
The Moral Economy of Elections in Africa is out!! Based on five years of interviews, surveys, archive work and election observation. We are so grateful to everyone that spoke to us and supported the research - you had this book possible.
#Thread
1/4
Weekend of protest in Belarus. Warning: The details of the atrocities committed by the regime are horrendous. It is important we try and keep this in the news and that the international community makes it clear this is not acceptable.
#LukashenkoLeaveNow
Instead, there is a white space to the right of the 8 which strongly suggests that a number has been tippexed out to get Wine from 80+ votes down to just 8 votes. Memories of Malawi anyone ?
@bonidulani
@GoldenMatonga