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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ Profile
Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ

@FreightAlley

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Freight-Affiliated Media. Founder/CEO of FreightWaves, American Shipper, and CEO of FLYING Magazine.

Chattanooga, TN
Joined April 2009
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@FreightAlley
Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
Update: I bought my 16 yr old son a tiny e-comm biz on Microacquire. He and I spend about 8 hrs per wk working on biz together (after school/wknds). Purchase price: $10k on Jan 1, 2023 Revenue in 22: $6k Revenue YTD already: $6200 Profit YTD: $1400 Experience: Priceless
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
I did CPR on a 12-yr old that was in a jet ski accident. Two jet skis collided in mid air, riding the wake off our boat. We stopped the boat. I jumped in the water and pulled her to the boat, she was dead. Eyes rolled back in her head. I began CPR and cracked her ribs in theโ€ฆ
@EM_RESUS
Sam Ghali, M.D.
3 years
Hi, ER Doc here. RT if youโ€™ve ever done CPR on someone and they survived. Trying to prove something.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
This a chart of freight demand for the US contract truckload market. March 8 was the "cliff" in freight demand. Its unlike anything we've seen before. Rapid deterioration in national freight demand. Spring is usually one of the best times.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
The freight market is experiencing a severe recession and bloodbath. Here is a round-up of the doom and gloom headlines that have occurred in one of the worst downturns in freight market history. Full articles and ongoing coverage on FreightWaves. 1/๐Ÿงต
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
Just signed an LOI to purchase my 16-year-old a tiny eCommerce business on Microacquire. This is going to be more educational than anything he will learn in school.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
Over the next decade, China will lose its status as the world's manufacturing hub, while America will retain its status as the global reserve currency. Supply chains are going to reorientate away from China and back towards North America.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 months
I wrote a letter to my wife outlining everything she needs to know about our finances, investments, and business if I were to pass suddenly. In bold letters (3x times) I wrote โ€œdo not pay off the mortgage early, no matter what.โ€ We have a 30-year at 2.68%. Sheโ€™s far better offโ€ฆ
@GuyTalksFinance
Finance Guy
2 months
Every millionaire I know paid off their home early ๐Ÿก Think about that.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
30,000 employees will likely be laid off next week when Yellow, the 3rd largest trucking company in the US, shutters its doors after nearly 100 years. RIP Yellow, Roadway, USF, NewPenn
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
8 months
I bought my 16 year-old son a small e-commerce business for $10k on . We work on it after school. It did $6k in revenue before we purchased it in January and it just passed the $50k mark.
@agazdecki
Andrew Gazdecki
8 months
Whoa team @acquiredotcom passed 350,000 registered buyers recently. Hoping we pass 1,000,000 registered buyers within the next year or so. Great time to be a startup founder!
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
A Taylor Swift concert is a combination of music concert and broadway play costing over $100M. Ever wonder what the logistics is for the one of the most expensive concert tours in history? 1/
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
Last June, FreightWaves issued a report that stated that "imports were dropping off a cliff." Stifel wrote a damning rebuttal, accusing FreightWaves of greatly exaggerating the slowdown and accusing us of not doing our homework on the situation. In reality, it was Stifel thatโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
The only thing surprising about the freight market slowdown is the speed at which its unfolding. The supply chain "bullwhip effect" is both predictable and was expected. The surge of inventories and declining freight costs/capacity imbalances will be deflationary. 1/
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
11 months
Commercial pilots now make more than doctors or lawyers and enter their aviation career with far less debt and more earnings years than either.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
4 months
Married pilots know the struggle
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
This is Mexico's moment to steal manufacturing market share from China.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
"The driver shortage" narrative over the past two years has caused the largest amount of startup trucking fleets in history. This is not a meme stock - these are actual entrepreneurs that have started their own trucking company. Thread 1/n
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
8 months
Dave Clark moved his Flexport journey from โ€œexperienceโ€ to โ€œeducationโ€ on LinkedIn
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
$1.12 trillion worth of student loans remain in forbearance, meaning that payments have been temporarily paused. On July 1, 2023, the student loan forbearance program ends & payments will resume. Consumers 18 - 44 years old are among the most important demo that drive theโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
"Worst freight market since the Great Financial Crisis." This statement is common across social media. Now we have some evidence to support it. The worst trucking market prior to the current one was in 2019, the "Trucking Bloodbath." At one point, 10 large trucking companiesโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
I can't remember a time in history, when the yoy comparison for tender rejections rates were red in EVERY SINGLE MARKET. Trucking capacity is loosening in every market across the US.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
9 months
Trucking is one of the most fragmented industries on the planet. Growing up, I was told that there would be massive consolidation in the trucking industry. The opposite has happened. Why? This chart shows the number of individual trucking fleet companies. 1/
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
Tender rejections have dropped to an all-time low of 2.53%. The previous record low was set during the extreme COVID lockdowns at 2.57. Things are dire for spot-market trucking firms. What is a tender rejection? A tender rejection measures the balance of supply and demand inโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 months
@userdata703 If sheโ€™s reading it, Iโ€™m dead.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
5 months
Shipping rates, bottlenecks, and backlogs have collapsed due to one of the worst freight recessions in history - after all, freight is a commodity. I suspect Biden is unaware of this. The industry is experiencing a bloodbath. Article:
@POTUS
President Biden
5 months
Because of my economic plan, our supply chains are the strongest on record โ€“ with backlogs, bottlenecks, and shipping rates at a 25-year low.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
5 months
Europe is far more exposed to the disruptions in the Red Sea. Historically, the US Navy has been the protector of global shipping, but we have less incentive this time to respond with military action. If supply chain sourcing is a competition, a loss of security in the Red Seaโ€ฆ
@CNBCWEX
Worldwide Exchange
5 months
"If [conflict in the Red Sea] continues to exacerbate, it will create significant disruptions," says @FreightAlley to @FrankCNBC . "What it also does is it changes the way supply chain professionals think about sourcing products from places like China."
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
New record for national truck stop retail diesel at $5.28/gallon ($.81/mile). An owner-operator doing 7000 miles per month and getting 6.5 MPG would have seen their fuel bill jump $1800/month since the start of the year.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
The trucking bloodbath has also taken down a bank. The FDIC has seized Iowa-based Citizens Bank and its exposure to commercial trucking is the cause.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
Tender rejections are the best indicator into realtime supply/demand in the trucking. A high rejection rate = trucking cos have more options in freight to pick from. (more options = more rejections; less options = less rejections). Why are rejections falling? Thread 1/n
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
Trucking executives have said that the current freight recession is worse than 2008. On its surface, that seems like an exaggeration. But the reason they think this is because of the speed and depth at which industry conditions have deteriorated. Back in 2008, the truckingโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
โ€œThe third-largest North American containerboard and box producer, Packaging Corp. of America, reported its Q2 results; these included a 9.8% box shipment decline, one of its most severe on record.โ€
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
5 months
Globalization was only possible because the US Navy protected global shipping lanes. If we donโ€™t respond with force, it will create a massive recalculation in global sourcing.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
7 months
This one is going to hurt. The UAW strike is having a massive impact on trucking volumes. I haven't seen this big of a drop in trucking contract volumes outside of a holiday since the start of COVID. Contracted load volumes are down over 12%.
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@ThomasWasson7
Thomas Wasson
7 months
Massive plunge in outbound tender volumes nationwide as the UAW strike intensifies. Appears some of the strong September volumes was automotive front loading in a run up to the strike. OTVI down 1,421.85 points w/w or 12.15% from 11703.29 points Sep 26 to 10281.44 points.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
There will be a surge of containers from China when it resumes its economy, but no one knows when this will happen, how long it will take, and how backed up their domestic supply chains are. For now, we know the freight market is slowing and ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ is only making things worse. 1/
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
Freight is one of the cleanest signals of forward economic demand. After all, every physical good, no matter what commodity or components go into it has one thing in common: they require transport. By monitoring freight data, you are actually watching the goods economy inโ€ฆ
@profstonge
Peter St Onge, Ph.D.
6 months
Soaring bankruptcies, crashing volumes, and mass lay-offs in shipping and freight -- one of the most reliable indicators of recession. Prices across the eight major shipping routes have plunged by half this year, going from $3,000 per container to just $1,400. One analystโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
9 months
A few years ago, there was a lot of discussion about the elimination of the physical worker - i.e. jobs in the physical goods economy. Think truck drivers, farmers, pilots, oil rig workers, construction, etc. A lot of these ideas were promoted by venture capitalists and techโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
Container spot rates from China to the US West Coast have dropped to the lowest point in the history of the Freightos - Baltic Index (2016). Earlier this month, they dropped below $1000 to $990 (now $1007). Rates are down 94% YoY.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
7 months
We have a report about another venture-backed freight brokerage is out of cash, hasn't paid carriers and a bankruptcy filing is imminent. Story coming.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
Manufacturing labor cost per hour is 25% less in Mexico than in China
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
9 months
Trucking capacity is finally reacting to higher freight volumes. Tender rejections are at the highest levels all year at 3.96%. This suggests that the bottom is in the freight market and things may firm from here.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
4 months
All signs point to a freight market recovery. Here is what the data tells us: Tender rejections are above 5%. Tender rejections measure the percentage of truckloads rejected. Carriers reject loads if they have better options. Capacity is coming back in balance. 1/
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
7 months
Last March, we wrote an article about an imminent freight recession. Three months later, we warned about a collapse in imports from China. We received a lot of hate from these calls. SONAR data and analysis forewarned about one of the sharpest downturns in freight sinceโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
The freight market is teetering on a pretty big development. Tender volumes in the truckload market are on the verge of crossing below 2019 levels. There has been zero sign of any firming in the market as we head into the start of the Spring shipping season. 1/
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
@sweatystartup Expanding on 3 - how you travel can be profoundly impacted by wealth. A millionaire can easily fly first class and stay at a luxury resort on occasion; a deca-millionaire can charter private and rent a private villa; a UHNW can own the villa and fly their private jet everywhere.โ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
If you want to know how independent drivers are actually doing - ignore all of the articles and charts (including ourโ€™s) and go to the trucking Facebook message boards. Small fleets owners and brokers are active. There has been a massive sentiment shift in the past week.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
8 months
When Dave Clark resigned from his post at Amazon to join Flexport on June 1, 2022, US imports had just achieved an all-time record. What Clark didn't know at the time was that imports out of China were in the midst of an epic collapse. 6 days later FreightWaves reported thatโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
It's a sad week in aviation history - the last 747 is set to roll off the assembly line. Arguably the most impactful commercial plane ever built, democratizing global travel for the middle class. Before the 747 international air travel was a privilege only for the wealthy.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
This is the biggest risk currently in the goods economy. Student debt is the 2nd largest form of consumer debt in the US. 25M Americans were able to pause their $393 avg. payment/mo for the past 3 yrs. It resumes in Q3. It is going to take consumer spending with it. This demoโ€ฆ
@SpecialSitsNews
Special Situations ๐ŸŒ Research Newsletter (Jay)
1 year
Imagine how much consumer spending is going to be NEGATIVELY impacted after July, when student loan payments restart after SIX pauses and extensions of the moratorium...have been warning about this for months... How are auto lenders, consumer cyclicals, home builders going toโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
5 months
The riskier global shipping is, the more expensive it is. Insurance carriers will demand longer routes around contested areas, making it far less practical for global production. China becomes the biggest loser. Mexico becomes the biggest winner.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
8 days
Arnold was founded during the Great Depression and survived multiple recessions, stagflation, deregulation, and GFC - only to be killed by this market. With 402 trucks, Arnold was one of the largest truckload carriers to be killed off by the Great Freight Recession.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
9 months
Freight market conditions are improving. Tender rejections are the highest levels in 6 months at 4%. Tender rejection measures the percentage of truckloads that are turned down by trucking firms in the market. It is the best way to measure supply/demand 1/
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
3 months
One of the most important technical indicators in the trucking market has been triggered. The spread between contract and spot has narrowed to the precovid range. Before covid, the delta between contract and spot trucking rates was -$.35 to -$.50/mile, meaning that it wasโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
I don't believe the freight market will turn around in the second half of the year. In fact, I think things will get worse.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
This is insane. Pirates using SWAT team tactics to hijack a commercial ship via chopper.
@disclosetv
Disclose.tv
6 months
NEW - Yemen's Houthis have released footage of yesterday's hijacking of a civilian ship in the southern Red Sea.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
8 months
The freight market bottomed on May 14th. Since then conditions have continued to improve. The outbound tender rejection index (OTRI) measures the balance of supply/demand in trucking, by measuring the % of truckloads that are rejected. This data comes from the "tender"โ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
8 months
There are more airports in the US than McDonalds
@typesfast
Ryan Petersen
8 months
America is so rich you can look out the window in the middle of nowhere and see a tiny town with 3 airports.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
Based on my personal health results after a year of intermittent fasting - the biggest health lie I grew up believing is that breakfast is the most important meal of the day. Itโ€™s not.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
Southern California truckload tender volumes are ~23% lower than April 2019. If you want to know what the outlook for domestic truckload is over the next quarter, you look to Southern California. As imports flow into the US from Asia, they get transported from LA to inlandโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
All of our money is held in overnight sweep accounts at SVB. We never worried about deposits evaporating, but the failure of the bank meant we couldn't access systems to get our hands on funding for payroll. One of our board members stepped up and fronted the $1MM we needed toโ€ฆ
@CNBCTheExchange
The Exchange
1 year
SVB customer and @FreightWaves CEO @FreightAlley explains that since 100% of their money was held at the bank, they had to have a board member step up and front the $1m payroll due today...and because of regulatory issues they're still having difficulty accessing their deposits.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
5 months
We have just closed on the Dallas Bay Skypark, a small community airport in Chattanooga. We plan to turn Dallas Bay into a fly-in community for pilots with 63 residential units. Engineering processes should begin in coming weeks, with construction planned soon afterwards.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
7 months
We are hearing that a number of mid size freight brokers are in financial trouble. These firms grew using receivables funding to fuel growth and due to collapsing market fundamentals have breached their covenants. The banks that financed these ABL lines have been trying to playโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
11 months
The ocean container market tells us what we want to know about inventory restocking - its not happening.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
Breaking: Injunction in Yellow case denied. Teamsters strike to proceed on Monday. (Best guess) Yellow will most likely file Chapter 7 by early next week. Sad day in trucking history. The story coming on FreightWaves shortly.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
5 months
Ships getting attacked in the Red Sea has the potential to have far greater long-term impacts on global supply chains than we saw when the Suez was blocked two years ago. If this is not responded to by force by the US Navy it would destroy long-term confidence in globalization.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
3 months
Today marks the end of a chapter for FreightWaves. Our SONAR offering has reached a sufficient scale where it will be standalone and the media business is being divested. The media business will be in familiar hands. I am acquiring FreightWaves media and will merge it withโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
The Treasury department loaned Yellow $700M, of which $230M has been paid back. In total (including the Treasury loan), Yellow had $1.5B in debt. Treasury and all lenders to Yellow are likely to recover their money. Why? Yellow is worth more dead than alive. Here is theโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
We understand that a bankruptcy filing for Yellow may happen as soon as tonight
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
While the tour is very expensive to produce, itโ€™s a fraction of what she will net on tour. Forbes estimates that she will personally gross $620M and net over $480M after all her expenses have been paid. This will double her net worth and crown her Era Tour as the most profitableโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
13 days
Three years ago, I bought a magazine as a passion project. Since then, I've fallen in love with the magazine business, acquired other brands, and grown into a $50M side hustle (18% EBITDA margins today). I believe it could become a billion-dollar business by 2030 through aโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
Trucking employment imploding as industry faces unprecedented headwinds
@DonMiami3
Don Johnson
6 months
Trucking employment is contracting the fastest on record this century
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
Likely the largest ever single-month contraction in container imports - McCown Report
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
โ€œHowโ€™s freight?โ€ Next time someone asks that, send them this ever-expanding list of bankruptcies and layoffs from the logistics sector. Itโ€™s very long. In fact, one of the longest articles ever published on our site.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
A CFO of a large trucking insurance broker told me they lost 12% of the fleets they insure to shutdowns or bankruptcies in the first quarter The โ€œGreat Purgeโ€
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
Best Buy warning of sharp decline in sales by 6-7.5% as consumers pull back. Freight data continues to signal continuing weakness in the goods economy.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
8 months
September has been a disappointment for the freight market. We saw a nice bounce in July and August and expected the rally to continue through the end of the quarter. Unfortunately, the opposite is happening.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 month
The trucking market is soft right now. Tender rejections are roughly in line with 2023 numbers (which represented all-time lows). Since the Great Freight Recession started in 2022, whenever there is momentum in the market, it's short-lived. Brutal market.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
7 months
Iโ€™ve spoken with over a dozen folks in banking about the current state of freight brokerage. They all agree - we are on the cusp of an extinction level event for high growth freight brokers. I dove into whatโ€™s happening this evening in an article.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
3 months
Miami has the best skyline of any city in North America
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
Lots of confusing data in the freight market - let me be clear. We care about both volumes and capacity. We track both. The freight market commentators talk about a "freight recession" and there is a lot of disagreement about what that term means. But fundamentally, nearlyโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
9 months
Hillary (a Cat-4 hurricane) is headed toward critical infrastructure out West. This could bring some national supply chain disruptions. There are 14 refineries in California. The Ports of Long Beach and LA are the largest ports in the US. The Inland Empire is one of theโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
3 months
Iโ€™ve heard from multiple CEOs with large transaction portfolios connected to the trucking spot market about how abysmal February has been. One described it as the beginning of the end of the โ€œgreat flush outโ€ for small carriers. โ€œJanuary was a headfakeโ€ said another.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
Container volumes out of China to the US have dropped 18% since April 6th, but are set to drop another 37% between now and May 12th.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
Weโ€™ve heard some truckers say the current market is the worst theyโ€™ve experienced, even more challenging than the depths of COVID (which caused a breakout of protests among drivers). Rejections have dropped below 3% and not far away from the Covid lockdown lows.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
4 months
If you have toddlers, this is a great way to teach them about geography. Each flight becomes an evening discussion about the region and its history. Tonight, we are focused on Egypt.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
5 months
One of the great things about freight data is how broad and fragmented the market is, along with the fact that supply chains are upstream. Our trucking and container datasets come from completely independent sources, so when you see a development in both container and truckingโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
Trucking continues to show signs of weakening. Volumes have slowed since the start of the month, with no signs of firming. The goods economy looks to be teetering after a promising start at the beginning of the year. 1/
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
A large private consumer kitchenware manufacturer told me that they have seen a large contraction in demand over the past 8 weeks.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
This is frightening - tender rejections have collapsed to all-time lows (outside extreme COVID lockdowns) to 3.22% at the end of the quarter! Tender rejection index measures pricing power that fleets have in the market. Capacity is abundant at a time when RFPs are beingโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
Chinese lockdowns have not yet had an impact on US supply chains. That is about to happen. Ocean analyst @WHByers warns that container volumes leaving China are set to drop by over 50% within the next 2 weeks.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
JB Huntโ€™s revenue down 18.4% YoY. Company is a bellwether to the entire freight sector and would be one of the first to see a turn around in the market. If they arenโ€™t bullish on a 2H recovery, itโ€™s unlikely for anyone else.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
The trucking industry is NOT currently experiencing a driver shortage. Actually, the opposite is happening right now. There is a massive capacity glut, not shortage. And the only reason we have a glut - the industry has too many truck drivers. The concept of a perpetual "driverโ€ฆ
@DrDataScientist
Dr. Craig Brown
1 year
Are self-driving trucks the key to supply chain issues?: Global supply chains remain in crisis after several national and international events. However, a massive truck driver shortage is a significant cause of delaysโ€ฆ #DataScience #BigDataAnalytics #AI
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
Wow - the pension fund has agreed to extend health benefits to Teamster members. Teamsters calls off strike.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
9 months
@Jason The $170k is for their over the road truck drivers, ie the ones that drive the largest trucks. Weโ€™d need point to point autonomous trucks to be in the market before these jobs go away. That seems unlikely before 2035z
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
Tender rejections, a way to measure available trucking capacity, have reached a non-covid low, as trucking companies struggle to keep their trucks loaded. This is deflationary for freight rates.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
An executive with decades of experience working at some of the largest 3PLs predicted that this year would be the most challenging in history for the freight brokerage sector. "The bubble is bursting." His reasons: - For the past 20 years, 3PLs have been a hyper-growthโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
2 years
18% of Chinese trucks are currently offline. Trucks haul 75% of the freight in China. Without trucking networks, supply chains between Chinese factories arenโ€™t able to operate.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
1 year
19' was called a "trucking bloodbath", as excess capacity flooded into the market in the wake of the ELD mandate. At one point, we covered 10+ bankruptcies/week. 23' looks to be worse, as tender rejections are on verge of dropping below 3% (now 3.05%). Low in 19' was 3.86%.
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
A lot of trucking history is about to die next week. The legacy of Yellow stretches 93 years of operations. It is 3rd largest trucking company and 30k employees. I tried to trace the family tree of Yellow back through the years, of companies that briefly became a part of whatโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
10 months
Freight markets giving off recession vibes. Dave Jackson CEO of Knight-Swift on their conference call stated: โ€œI donโ€™t know that weโ€™ve ever seen freight demand fall this far so fast and for so long without an accompanying economic recession.โ€
@nyugradsubstack
nyugrad
10 months
Knight-Swift Reports 71% Earnings Drop for Q2 $KNX #freight @DriveKnight @FreightAlley @DiMartinoBooth has been alerting everyone on "destocking". here is another proof point... CEO David Jackson said during a call with investors. โ€œI donโ€™t know that weโ€™ve ever seen freightโ€ฆ
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Craig Fuller ๐Ÿ›ฉ๐Ÿš›๐Ÿš‚โš“๏ธ
6 months
Last year, so many folks said the freight slowdown was a reversion to the mean. Itโ€™s not. We are experiencing one of the sharpest downturns in history caused by a massive capacity build and its going to take a while to burn it all off.
@MattSilver
Matt Silver
6 months
Maersk targeting 10,000 job cuts as container rates continue to drop is not a good sign for anyone in ocean freight forwarding. Itโ€™s a commoditized business and a lot of companies are dealing with the same headwinds. The CEO was quoted saying โ€œThis is not a diet. This is a resetโ€ฆ
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