Ed Miller @EdMillerPoker Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

WARNING: This feed contains 0% poker.

25

1

52

Last Seen Profiles

@deffomi

@PhineasFerb

@mesum_indonesia

@pinpinkiri

@BlX74_0

@Cristiano_R75

@ACES_E

@Flaminiesta

@POCUS_Toronto

@brianefallon

@PFF_College

@zramns

@GoldenAmateur

@T1

@tarrenceva

@feminterrupted

@pierotico

@ETHGlobal

@arshid_c

@mowrue

@aixator58711248

@BELLA_E4

@adrieltxmas

@The3rdRawleigh

@Papua77201611

@Susyalmeida1

@CoachPriore

@r_shitei_staff

@FMGirlsBB

@maggiejanetynan

@LolliScroggin

@kub0711

@lsteen0612

@AFM_1369

@GovofCoEspanol

@Val_Berdara

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

As soon as you know someone will lie to further their interests, it's not constructive to invite them to a debate podcast interview town hall panel whatever to hear "their viewpoint" or "their side of the story." They just fucking lie.

10

22

316

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

My mom died last Monday after a two year battle with lung cancer. Wanted to say a couple things about her. She was a professor of medieval literature, primarily Old English and Old Norse. I got my love of words and language from her.

38

1

251

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

7 months

heads up new book incoming! TOC: Introduction 6 Anatomy Of A Modern Sportsbook 10 A Note About Longevity 31 Single Game Parlays 33 In-Play Betting 44 Cashout 58 Futures 64 Dispelling A Few Betting Myths 74 Longevity 83 Winning Angles 118 Putting It Together 179 Conclusion 188

22

14

222

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

did anyone in a position of responsibility for the US pandemic response get fired for poor performance?

24

7

210

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

7 months

New book from me and @DavidowMatthew is OUT TODAY Interception: The Secrets Of Modern Sports Betting. Kindle and Paperback at Amazon

Interception: The Secrets Of Modern Sports Betting

www.amazon.com

22

28

196

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

If you are still actively minimizing the gravity of COVID-19 please stop. You are wrong. You may not understand why (pick one of exponential growth, lack of population immunity, high hospitalization rate ignoring mortality rates, unknown prognosis after “recovery”)...

30

36

184

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

Gambler: Lectures you for hours about how the currency issued by the most powerful entity in the world isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on. Also gambler: Keeps 40% of net worth in chips issued by a hotel that looks like the set of a 90s Cinemax movie.

7

11

189

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

7 months

thanks for all the interest in the new book y'all. the title is Interception: The Secrets Of Modern Sports Betting kindle pre-order is live at

Interception: The Secrets Of Modern Sports Betting

www.amazon.com

14

23

188

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

There’s something about gambling that makes the occasional rec player all of a sudden randomly decide that they’re like three months of work from being the best in the world

14

13

164

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

1 year

When we started writing this four years ago I had zero idea how much interest there would be in a fairly nerdy take on sports betting. Turns out there’s a lot.

26

5

159

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 months

possibly of interest to some Modeling Football: Combining ML models and Monte Carlo simulations

Modeling Football: Combining ML models and Monte Carlo simulations

"Play clock to 5. Pass is… intercepted at the goal line by Malcolm Butler. Unreal…” Super Bowl XLIX

medium.com

2

7

153

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

Sooo... the three formats of The Logic Of Sports Betting are #1 , 2, and 3 on the Amazon best-seller list in the sports gambling category. And to be honest they've been in those spots a lot since the book came out last year.

25

10

146

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

Still get a kick out of watching $10B+ companies straight copy the lines I make out of my little strip mall office.

12

3

143

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

Pre-announcement Announcement I wrote a sports betting book with @DavidowMatthew that's in the home stretch. ETA end of May/beginning of June. It's very good. If you have any interest in sports betting you should read it. More news in coming days.

19

10

134

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

Hey Dave @stoolpresidente . This shit is industry standard so I get it but I’m sure you’ll agree it’s lame. My company is fixing this. If you want to get @BSSportsbook to the point where you’re never sending another email like this hmu.

Joey Knish

@JoeyKnish22

3 years

Welp. Looks like no more “Can’t lose parlays” for Uncle K.

66

42

461

5

6

126

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

Don’t worry four years is plenty of time to forget all this and convince yourself again that you’re super sharp at election betting.

1

9

118

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

Congrats to my dad who successfully left the country today to retire to a tropical paradise. He always said his hard deadline to move was Election Day and he just made it under the wire.

5

0

117

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

People drove caravans across the Sahara and fought wars over salt and now it’s a years supply for fifty cents at the grocery. Will never not blow my mind.

7

10

113

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

Anyone who thinks they know something about how the world works should be forced to gamble until they have at least one massive downswing.

5

25

110

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

It is interesting how many investors and executives from outside the gambling space have now entered and convinced themselves they know what gamblers want without seemingly spending any time with gamblers.

14

7

113

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

The Logic Of Sports Betting now available for preorder on Amazon. Kindle-only for now. Paperback as soon as possible. Release date June 4.

The Logic Of Sports Betting

www.amazon.com

13

12

103

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

8 years

I follow @dog_rates but my wife follows @EverythingGoats . Not sure if we can make this work. 😓

2

6

100

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

History tells us that every year we don’t have an all-consuming global war or a worldwide pandemic is a good year. 2019 was a good year and here’s to 2020

10

13

98

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

In five years the most important sportsbook brand in the US will accept all comers with clearly posted limits and this framework will allow them to make the winningest bettors the cornerstone of their marketing.

14

5

96

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

If you started with $100 and parlayed all the winners of all 32 of the first round games you would have won $742 after your limits were cut to 3 bucks by Thursday afternoon

2

11

95

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

the strangest coolest thing just happened. just watched a 14 month old say his first word and it was "person." then he said "woman man TV camera." i told him that was amazing but out of order so no bonus points.

2

5

96

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

Maybe this sounds delusional but I honestly think if everyone involved in US sports betting from any angle -- bettor, operator, legislator, lobbyist, media, leagues, everyone -- just stopped and read this book this week we'd be on the right track next week

24

15

91

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

The worlds biggest economic inefficiency might be how much staging matters. We pay someone $1k to put rental furniture and fake plants in a house we’re selling and it’s worth $20k to the sale price and time value. The entire economy works this way up thru billion dollar deals.

6

15

89

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

We’re going to have the best plague. It’s going to be an amazing plague. The best plague you’ve ever seen.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

4 years

Sleepy Joe Biden was in charge of the H1N1 Swine Flu epidemic which killed thousands of people. The response was one of the worst on record. Our response is one of the best, with fast action of border closings & a 78% Approval Rating, the highest on record. His was lowest!

46K

18K

92K

5

6

89

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

amazing how many successful gambling/poker careers boil down to having one key insight and then grinding it into oblivion

11

12

83

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

Every time I deal with non-gamblers nowadays it’s a huge culture shock.

4

3

87

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

My 8 year old is chanting “Why are so many people dumb?” and I think he’s learned all I have to teach him about the world.

1

7

82

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

a bunch of people are actually going to refuse the vaccine for this when it’s ready huh what a world

20

3

85

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

People successful in one thing really tend to overrate their aptitude for damn near anything else. Confidence is a hell of a drug.

5

3

85

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

Like 95% of public discourse is just people saying little propaganda nuggets someone else wrote at each other it’s wild. We are the virus.

12

8

81

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

Brought my son home from the hospital exactly 10 years ago today. Amazing how much one person can change your life.

2

1

78

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

laying out the new book this fine Friday night and this is what the Table of Contents looks like. clocking in around 240 pages give or take

10

4

78

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

First Mothers Day without mom. Thinking about you and love you.

4

0

77

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

don't come to sports betting with greed in your heart you are a lock to get burned approach it for what it is, a game. a game that makes watching sports more fun. and a game where if you're clever enough around the edges you might carve out a little EV for yourself.

7

8

73

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 months

hey while you're buying stuff today buy our new book it's good

Interception: The Secrets Of Modern Sports Betting

www.amazon.com

8

6

75

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

1 year

you know i think it's possible that people aren't being hoodwinked into betting parlays.. i think perhaps they do it because it's fun

16

6

73

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

Hard not to give the US an F grade on crisis response. In navigating the tradeoff between protect people’s health and people’s livelihoods they’ve somehow managed to shitcan both.

Kyle Tibbitts

@KyleTibbitts

3 years

My heart is breaking for these small business owners. This is wrong.

214

897

5K

13

4

72

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

2 years

The most valuable thing I've learned from my time in gambling is to frame decisions in terms of identifying the outcome you want, choosing the path to maximize likelihood of that outcome, and then accepting whatever happens and quickly brushing off any failures.

Andrew Barber 🔰🌐

@abarber1

2 years

I make a post about the value of poker in cultivating critical thinking abilities and like clockwork I see half a dozen winning players posting insane COVID takes. Thank you for humbling me!

25

1

227

7

3

74

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

If someone asks what you do for a living and you don't want to talk about it say "data analyst." Zero follow up questions ever.

4

11

75

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

Retiring this thing on its anniversary. Heres to better days ahead.

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

History tells us that every year we don’t have an all-consuming global war or a worldwide pandemic is a good year. 2019 was a good year and here’s to 2020

10

13

98

6

3

71

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

it gets a lot of crap but @Nextdoor has been invaluable during this pandemic because now i know precisely how dumb everyone living within a five mile radius of me is

7

8

69

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

going to start rating the weeks of 2021. week of jan 1-7 gets a 2.5

9

6

70

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

7 years

The most important thing gambling has taught me is to become more comfortable dealing with uncertainty. And that everything is uncertain.

4

20

69

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

First visit to Las Vegas 20 years ago fell in love with how anyone can make it here with their brain and some hustle. Still true.

4

3

70

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

She loved the internet and talking to people my age and younger. Some of you may have known her as she liked to pop into some of my communities. She had a unique worldview and I know her posts were popular. Anyway I just wanted to say something. Gonna miss her.

21

0

66

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

Honestly don’t understand the people whose content on here is like 80%+ being dicks to other people. They’re often mostly telling you what they don’t know and they’re burning bridges to boot. What’s the point?

12

0

70

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

The ideal of evidence-based decision making is pure myth. Everyone applies a lower evidentiary standard to ideas they like versus ideas they don’t.

11

9

67

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

A few ppl have reached out to me thanking me for being "early" on COVID. To the extent I helped you, you're welcome. I have some strong thoughts about how much credibility that "earliness" should buy me regarding other COVID-related topics and I hope you will indulge me.

7

6

69

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

ok that’s funny

Pat Fitzgerald

@PatFitzgerald23

4 years

The Ayn Rand Institute received a PPP loan of between $350K and $1 million

2K

8K

18K

4

5

67

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

3

0

67

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

Want to thank the outstanding team at @CircaSports Colorado for building a sportsbook that puts fairness and transparency first.

Huddle

@huddle_tech

3 years

Very happy to announce our partnership with @CircaSports Colorado to deliver no delay/no rejections in-play betting to residents of that state.

7

10

103

3

1

67

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

tl;dr William Hill sold a correlated parlay nine months ago and now that it's won wants to retroactively convert the bet to two straight bets In England this is how they do things, retroactively editing bets placed nearly a year ago. We don't want this here. A bet is a bet.

10

66

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

@JoeyKnish22 I feel like if someone sent Dave an email like this about one of his accounts--sports, stocks, crypto, etc--he'd turn it into a five minute rant. Am I wrong?

0

1

65

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

@JoeyKnish22 This email seems at odds with Barstool's brand in general.

1

64

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

Holy cow folks thank you. The Logic Of Sports Betting is now the #546 best-seller for all books on Amazon which is actually ridiculously high.. haven't had a book that high since 2004.

8

5

64

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

Successful people are never good at everything and often obviously and hilariously bad at some things. But they’re nearly always very good at some things and with an open mind you can learn from them. If you can’t figure out what they’re good at that’s your failing not theirs.

10

1

60

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

2 years

Today we announced a big deal for @DeckPrism that I'm very excited about. We've merged with Huddle Gaming and simultaneously accepted investment from Las Vegas Sands. I wanted to offer some thoughts about why we did this and what we think we can build.

Las Vegas Sands commits to Huddle Tech investment

Las Vegas Sands has made an investment in Huddle Tech, the technology provider formed by the merger of Huddle Gaming and DeckPrism Sports.

igamingbusiness.com

10

8

62

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

2010s touting: Make 15 predictions, victory lap the one that hits 2020s touting: No predictions, just permanent victory laps 2030s touting: Spawn hundreds of machine learning-generated identities to victory lap for you

1

8

62

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

know I’ve tweeting it before but it’s really really mind boggling how many people with literally zero gambling experience think they’re six months from being the best in the world at it

5

3

60

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

We just dealt an entire weekend of live football. Pretty sick. Amazing job by our trading team.

6

0

62

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

All y’all out there think you can just launch a website slap sports betting on it and sell it for $20M are crazy. If you’re only charging $20M people are just gonna assume it sucks. Gotta go $100M+

4

6

62

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 months

If someone tries to invoke the concept of a "market consensus" price on * Anything in-play * Anything single game parlay * Anything you'd think of as a "prop" They are bullshitting you. There is no market nor any consensus.. just people throwing darts.

15

4

60

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

Is there any other amazing longterm investment that requires half of twitter to tell you constantly over a period of years what an amazing longterm investment it is or is Bitcoin the only one?

17

2

59

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

I love how 99% of this website is just plagiarism.

10

3

56

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

A convenient time to mention that we are hiring traders. Preferred at our Las Vegas-area office, but remote considered. Watch sports, sling lines. Option to receive a portion of compensation as equity. Or not. Whatever floats your boat.

Huddle

@huddle_tech

3 years

We are delighted to be partnering with the great team at Pinnacle to offer a top-tier in-play betting customer experience.

5

6

45

9

5

59

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

The Logic Of Sports Betting available TODAY -

10

9

60

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

“Spend three months salary on a diamond” and “renting is throwing money away” two biggest marketing coups of all time for their respected industries.

Callie Cox

@callieabost

4 years

I don’t know how many of you need to hear this today, so: Renting is not throwing money away.

192

297

2K

13

3

59

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

8 years

Poker isn't a sport. It's a strategic gambling game. The top industry goal should always be to improve the recreational player experience.

5

14

56

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

In case you ever wondered about the sports betting business they are declining bets on a guy w ~6% of the chips at +450

Jeff Platt

@jeffplatt

6 years

Caesars books have taken major action on Joe Cada to win the Main. Odds have moved from +700 to +450. Approval now required on all Cada bets!

3

11

31

7

56

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

Today is my day no one can beat my A game Fucking pocket jacks #pokerhaiku

1

8

55

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

This is a population average. Some individuals share 100%.

Lex Fridman

@lexfridman

3 years

Humans share 50% of their DNA with bananas.

530

404

6K

3

2

56

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

Amazing how much y’all non-Americans care about which dingbat we elect.

16

0

57

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

2 years

New pfp. Updated faithfully every ten years.

14

1

56

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

@ctrlshifti why do the good die young?

2

1

55

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 months

simple explanation for why same game parlay products will always be vulnerable to well chosen pairs of correlated outcomes from the tails of distributions

Plus EV Analytics

@PlusEVAnalytics

5 months

MATH TIME! CORRELATED PARLAYS (thread) Roll 2 dice, one red and one green. Consider the following bets (fair odds + 5% vig) Red die over 4.5 +186 Red die under 4.5 -233 Total over 8.5 +243 Total under 8.5 -314 Which full-odds parlay is better? Over+over +880 Under+under -113

11

10

169

2

5

54

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

Keys to life - Before you get out of bed tell yourself it will be a great day - Lunch is the most important meal after breakfast - If someone challenges you to eat a bunch of pizzas don't fucking do it - If you're broke go ahead and buy bitcoin on credit cards because fuck it

6

1

51

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

My son just did an impression of me working and it was just yelling random arithmetic problems into a phone

2

1

54

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

main life lesson i learned in the last ten years is its hard to add or create value with negativity

5

4

55

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

I think the skill this article mentions might be the most valuable skill there is. Figuring out the very small percentage of people who aren’t full of shit when they talk about a specific topic.

Jonathan Bales

@BalesBets

3 years

You should reject the advice of almost everyone, but one of the most valuable skills you can develop is figuring out which of the few you should trust and follow. It's incredibly important and you can get very far just picking the right people to tail.

13

12

236

5

7

53

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

Same thing happened 20 years ago when I moved out of my college dorm room

CBS News

@CBSNews

5 years

24,000 pounds of garbage were removed from Mount Everest, leading to the discovery of 4 dead bodies

48

174

235

2

1

51

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

The Logic Of Sports Betting NOW AVAILABLE IN PAPERBACK go get it

2

5

50

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

Be wary of gamblers who cultivate their social media. Most gamblers stop winning eventually and the social media presence pressures them to keep up appearances and also to think of ways to monetize their following.

6

3

49

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

same

The Spectator Index

@spectatorindex

4 years

JUST IN: White House physician says President Trump is 'fatigued but in good spirits'

53

142

973

3

1

53

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

My son just saw a commercial for a dating site and I guess their slogan is “for a real relationship, eharmony” and he got angry and said “for a real relationship, your dog”

6

3

51

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

5 years

Guy who wrote the ticket claimed he 'must have been half asleep' as his defense I mean does any American read this story and think anything but, "Tough shit half asleep guy, pay that man his money!"

7

1

51

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

i see the dfs tennis touting has begun and it's strange but it seems like the self same people who are good at the baseball and the basketball and the world cup are also experts at the tennis this is quite amazing to me tbh

4

12

52

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

I normally stay a thousand miles away from the dating discourse, but to the extent this is true I think it is a subcase of a greater phenomenon. Many people seem to have a wildly miscalibrated mental model of the human condition. I’m not sure why, but I think it’s interesting.

Gwen Kansen

@gwenkansen

3 years

Hardest truth of all: many if not most married people settled for their partner.

269

133

2K

6

50

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

Nevada is beautiful

Christopher Balladarez

@ChrisBalladarez

3 years

The Valley of Fire, Nevada. Hands down one of the luckiest shots I’ve ever got. I’ll never forget this moment.

537

18K

208K

3

51

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

Already thumbing his nose at established norms

3

5

49

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

How to predict the World Cup 1. Make sure you don't know anything about soccer 2. Data I guess? Don't clean it bc how would you? (See #1 ) 3. Machine learning random forest neural network nodes and stuff 4. Write a press release promoting your company/university

6

10

50

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

4 years

what if extroverts are the real virus

1

4

50

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

6 years

I'm not gonna bang on and on about this but.. PSA: there's basically no shot the DFS personalities turned sports betting touts can pick +EV NFL spreads and totals versus late week market lines. No shot. Don't bet these picks with your $ unless you are ok being -EV.

10

15

50

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

8 years

Son: What happens if you put toothpaste all over you? Me: I don't know S: How come you went to science school and you don't know any science

3

7

49

Ed Miller

@EdMillerPoker

3 years

We’re in another exponential growth phase. Huge shoulder to shoulder throngs of people is a bad idea right now. Outside or not. Masks or not. The criticism that dominant public messaging has given a pass to gatherings that support left politics I think is unfortunately valid.

Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸

@mtgreenee

3 years

All the media does is lie to you.

113

533

2K

6

3

47