๐ค Market nerd in the streets ๐ฅ Data junkie millennial in the tweets ๐ด On a sabbatical atm ๐ Always a
#GDTBATH
๐ Views my own, not investment advice
Some bittersweet personal news:
Wednesday will be my last day
@eToroUS
.
It's been one hell of a ride, and I'm heartbroken to leave such an incredible team.
Thanks for taking a shot on a young, raw, real market voice
@luledemmissie
@yoniassia
@laidler_ben
๐
What they tell you:
If you invested $100 in Apple's IPO and and held shares until today, that investment would be worth about $100,000.
What they don't tell you:
If you invested $100 in Apple's IPO and held shares until today, you would've endured 23 declines of 20% or more.
You: OMG credit card debt just hit a record $1 tril...
Me: stop right there. credit card debt is just 6% of $$$ people have in the bank, around the lowest %age in 20 years
Sister (25 years old, dietitian) just asked what the hot stock picks are these days because sheโs ready to start investing.
I told her to consider investing long-term in a broad market ETF, maybe one that tracks the S&P 500.
She asked me what an ETF and the S&P 500 are.
You know what? Weโre all probably thinking the same thing, so Iโll just go ahead and admit it.
Iโm not OK.
This pandemic has been disastrous for my mental health.
You: omg credit card debt is at $1.1 trillion now!
Me: yeah, but the % of credit card debt relative to money in the bank is near the lowest in 20 years
Context matters.
"ALL-TIME HIGH!" is what I just screamed.
But nobody heard me because I'm working from home in a global pandemic and my apartment complex is empty because nobody can afford the rent.
You: omg credit card debt is at $1.1 trillion now!
Me: yeah, but the % of credit card debt relative to money in the bank is near the lowest in 20 years
Context matters.
The weirdest-looking bull in decades...possibly ever.
The S&P 500 is up 23% this year, yet 71% of stocks are underperforming the index (the biggest % since at least 2000)
Yesterday, 429 stocks in the S&P 500 declined while $SPX fell just 0.4% itself.
That's the S&P's largest # of decliners for a drop that small since at least 1996 (as far back as my data goes).
That, my fine friends, was the first time since 2008 that the S&P 500 fell 4% intraday, only to recover those losses and close higher by the end of the day.
If you invested $1,000 in Apple when the stock went public in the 1980s, you'd have about $1.3 million today.
But you would've also had to deal with:
๐ข15 selloffs of 20% or more
๐ขFive selloffs of 50%
๐ขTwo drops of 80%
Picking stocks is easy...in hindsight.
$AAPL
๐จ EXCITING NEWS ๐จ
If you like what you see on Twitter, you can now ~subscribe~ to THE BOTTOM LINE โ my weekly note on how markets, the economy and culture impact your portfolio โ riiiiiiiiight here โฌโฌโฌ
On this day 30 years ago, the S&P fell 0.5%.
It was a disappointing drop, but nobody knew the S&P would go on to rally more than 1000% (8.5% a year), overcoming THREE separate global crises in the process.
Also, on this day 30 years ago, I was born ๐
WHOA.
The S&P 500โs first-quarter return was -20%, and its second-quarter return was +20%.
In the year 2020.
This year is just one big joke for the universe, right?
Grocery cashier: โHey, how are you today?โ
Me: โDoing well, how are you?โ
โActually, Iโm not OK. The Tar Heels lost in OT to Duke last night. We couldnโt make our free throws, and our lack of depth really showed down the stretch, and there was this one call at the end when...โ
A tale of a top-heavy market.
Today was only the second trading day since April 2009 in which the S&P 500 climbed 0.75% or more, but fewer than 300 index members advanced.
The S&P 500 hasnโt climbed or fallen 1% or more in 66 straight trading days.
This has happened 2 other times in the past 24 years:
Oct. 2018 (74-day streak)
Jan. 2018 (94-day streak)
The S&P 500โs decade in review:
๐ฐ 11.6% annualized returns
๐ถ๐ผ First record high in March 2013
๐ค 241 record highs since then
๐ต 176 days in correction territory
๐ No recessions
โฌ๏ธ 9 Fed hikes
โฌ๏ธ 3 Fed cuts
๐ป Most hated bull market in history
Oh my god.
Last week was the biggest for equity/index options volume in history, eclipsing the last week of Jan 2021 (the meme stock explosion) as the new record holder.
Thursday + Friday were the 4th and 5th biggest options volume days in history, too.
Interesting.
The VIX closed up today, even though the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.
That's happened 3 times this year (March 24, October 5 and today). Before 2020, that has happened two other times since 2003 (7/15/2009, 6/1/2009).
If my parents put $100 into an S&P 500 fund the day I was born, it'd be worth about $965 today.
Yes, even after eight drops of 10-20%, four bear markets and three recessions.
They also would've made that investment 31 years ago to the day๐
Tech stocks are making the rest of the market look silly.
The Nasdaq Composite closed at another record high today, while the S&P 500 closed 8% below its own. Thatโs the furthest $SPX has been from a record on a Nasdaq Comp record high day since Jan. 1980.
The S&P 500 has now declined in 13 of the last 15 triple witching days
Couple that with the fact that options volumes have more than doubled since 2019 and you've got an interesting lil narrative on your hands
$SPX
Hereโs my Friday the 13th take:
Since 1950, the S&P 500โs average change on Friday the 13th has been...wait for it...
0.13%
๐ป ๐ฆโก๏ธ๐๐งโโ๏ธ
DID YOU KNOW:
A 10% selloff may just be a 10% sale if you're willing to wait a bit.
No S&P 500 drop of 10-20% since 1950 has taken more than nine months to recover/reach new highs.
Existing home sales have now fallen for six straight months. Thatโs happened three other times in the past 20 years: Jan. 2014, Oct. 2007 (housing crisis), and Dec. 1999. Pretty eye-opening IMO considering U.S. consumers are the healthiest/most confident theyโve been in years.
I donโt tweet this for sympathy. I just want to be real because I know so many of us feel this way behind closed doors.
Unfortunately (or fortunately?) Iโve been to this place before so itโs a little more recognizable and familiar.
A mortgage CAN help you gradually buy a home *over many years*
But what rent haters wonโt tell you is the amount of time, money and emotion youโll put into that house.
Let's put some math behind what may be a massive opportunity if you're willing to wait.
Since 1950, in the days when the S&P 500 has closed down 15% or more from a 52-week high, it's posted positive 12-month returns 76% of the time after that.
Average 12-month return of 14%.
Today was the 224th trading day of 2020.
The S&P 500 ended the day up 10.2% year-to-date.
$SPX has been up 10% or more at this point in the year in 18 years since 1985.
In all 18 of those years, $SPX ended the year higher than it was on the 224th day (by an average of 4%).
Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at a record high while the Russell 2000 traded 8.8% below its record high, the biggest divergence w/ $SPX at a record since March 2000.
Youโre killinโ me, smalls! (h/t my colleague)
Oh yeah, Iโll add that โrent is throwing money awayโ is a very rude, close-minded, blanket statement to say to someone you love.
It also shows you donโt know what youโre talking about.
Love waking up to a thread on why SSRIs are just a big pharma scam.
I've been on meds for 6 years now and trust me, no amount of sunshine, money or sleep could've helped me
Hi friends! ๐๐ป
Been a while since Iโve introโed myself, so...
Iโm Callie! Nice to meet you. Iโm a senior investment strategist at a bank-run brokerage in Charlotte.
I love telling stories about the markets and investing, and I find the mental side of money fascinating.
Whoa, this is pretty crazy:
Since July 2016, the S&P 500 has only fallen on a weekly basis ONCE when Monday and Tuesday have closed up during the week.
Thatโs a 46/47 win rate for $SPX when Monday/Tuesday are up.
Throwing that anecdote out there because her (and my) generation is the one jumping into the market right now.
And of course, most of us didnโt have the resources to learn about personal finance and investing, so we wing it like our friends do.
Education is SO ๐๐ป IMPORTANT ๐๐ป
Hoooooo boy.
If the S&P 500 closes up today, it'll be the 11th time in the past decade that the index has dropped 1.8% during the day, only to recover all of its losses through the close.
Fintwit! Are there any good โwomen in financeโ lists to follow on Twitter? Iโll take account suggestions too.
Women are doing awesome things in this industry, but they arenโt recognized/amplified enough.
Honestly Iโm sick of it, and I will do better on my part to help fix it.
Yes, stocks closed at record highs again today.
But if you're waiting for lower prices to buy in, consider this:
If you've invested at any S&P 500 record high since 1950, there's a 99% chance the index hit another record high in the next 12 months.
Wish I could go back in time and tell high school me that being a nerd is totally OK (actually good), and one day youโll have lil nerd parties on a thing called Twitter and theyโll be way more fun than those cool kid parties you didnโt get invited to.
Bad news๐ข
The S&P 500's worst month of the year has been September based on average returns historically.
More bad news๐ข๐ข
The last four times when the S&P 500 fell 10% or more YTD through the end of August, it also dropped 8% or more in September.
Here's the playbook when it comes to rising yields.
Yield pops tend to freak out stocks.
BUT.
1) this tends to happen early on in economic recoveries.
2) stocks tend to rally long-term.
Here's a table of months since 1990 when the 10-year yield has risen the most.
Two days ago, my sweet, loving father went to be with the Lord. Iโm so heartbroken, but we were able to spend the last few days with him, and Iโm so thankful he lived a full life of love. One of my last memories with him was dancing at my wedding.
You can panic sell...
But historically, the odds have been against you.
Since 1950, when the S&P 500 fell 2.95% or more in a day (like it did today), it was
๐ฅup 12 months later 87% of the time
๐ฅwith an average 12-month fwd return of 18%.
The last time the Fed cut rates to zero (December 2008), I was a senior in high school who had no idea who/what the Fed was.
Today, I know too much about the Fed, my knees hurt and I canโt stay out past midnight.
We bought a house last month in one of the hottest cities in the US during one of the hottest housing markets in decades.
Hereโs what went down ๐ก โฌ๏ธ