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Dave Nadig Profile
Dave Nadig

@DaveNadig

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Free Agent Financial Futurist. Connecting dots between humans and finance. DMs open, LinkedIn works. for more.

Lenox, MA
Joined September 2008
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 months
My latest: The State of the ETF Market in 2024, with predictions for what we'll be talking about for the next little while, what will succeed, and what's a distraction.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Well, my daughter's college just closed. For the rest of the year. Everything online after break. Dorms closing. This is going to be a mass cultural event for Gen-Next.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
I lolled.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 months
A quick thread on this. So, my general take when looking at weird volume days is to try and figure out from the tape what the blocks look like. The TL;DR here to me is that someone/someones turned on their algo Friday. Here's all $HODL trades yesterday over 1000 shares. What…
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@EricBalchunas
Eric Balchunas
3 months
Typically when the daily volume is greater than an ETF's total assets (as in this case) it means one big creation, a la DYNF getting put in BLK models earlier this year. I've never seen a grassroots trading explosion come out of nowhere like this. Curious what @DaveNadig thinks
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Me, explaining global capitalism to my kids:
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
I'm just gonna say this: If you or a very close relative (my wife, in my case) isn't a teacher, you have NO IDEA what they're dealing with right now. Screw your trolley problem. Every teacher in the country is in a horrible dilemma with very little support and no good answer.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
My dear friend, who is a therapist, made this sheet for her clients. It strikes me it's a lot of very good advice in one place. Pass it along.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Look, I'm losing money like everyone else who's just boringly-long, but at the same time: is anyone else kind of relieved we're having a few down days? The lack of reaction to real, novel uncertainties was freaking me out.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
If safely reopenning schools is incredibly important, then you would think .gov might have done SOMETHING to support that. Like, ANYTHING. Guidance, $, Resources, Materials, Training, Logistics. We have done NOTHING. Its just pure abdication. Instead we backstopped corp bonds.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Spent 5 hours walking up and down Manhattan yesterday. First time NY since Feb. Was shocking to see how empty it was on a gorgeous day. So many boarded storefronts. So may favorite restaurants closed for good.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Why the options market may be the only one that matters. My latest: Long Vol - It's Always Different. Too many thank yous to list here but really enjoyed diving deep into this well (it's a deep well).
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
My Latest: $GME, TikTok, Semantic Density & RegNMS. It's not the '90s, and it's not (really) about gamma. This time it's different. (With embarrassing quotes from failures past.)
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Please, I am begging you: Do not send me your perfect backtested model that beat everything for all time. I am neither going to subscribe to your newsletter nor become your booster. If your model beat everything, you're already wealthy beyond the dreams of avarice right?
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Well, looks like I have to join a gang now.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
The most bananas SEC filing you will ever read. Fund shutting down because manager was just making up NAV numbers ... essentially. HT @choffstein
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
I nominate this for the greatest chart crime of all time.
@CNBC
CNBC
4 years
The better-than-expected jobs report follows a series of other recent data that points to a V-shaped recovery. Take a look at these charts:
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Interesting -- according to @JeremyDSchwartz just now, $GCC has approval to add 5% Bitcoin futures starting next week. So... I guess Bitcoin is a commodity? (Ducks)
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
And if you're annoyed I'm not staying in my ETF-lane over this assault on the Church I've been a lifetime member of, I welcome your unfollow. Yes, I am angry. I am very very angry.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Since everyone's now gonna get spun up about cap gains rates, here's the actual data on the historical side. Feel free to tell me where the inflection points from panicky cap gains hikes are. Seems like massive oversimplification of what really moves markets.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
6 years
This piece from @ReformedBroker on tricking your brain into being a OK in a bad market is really, really insightful. Way better than "dry powder" nonsense. Actual actionable idea.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 months
There is not an ounce of my being that wants to be on a beach, in a city, on the ocean, in a desert or anywhere else in the world. For me, the chance to hike in a snowstorm means it’s the highest of high holy days. Overwhelmed with ontological joy and gratitude. #getoutside
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Bond ETFs are not failing some test, bond pricing services are. NAVs (for ETFs and MFs) are only loosely based on reality on the best day, and these are not good days. My latest here ->
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
9 months
What are YOU doing Monday afternoon? Come chat with @profplum99 and @jam_croissant about how 0DTE options are messing with market structure, the reality of "long gamma" and what the heck a normal investor or advisor should (or shouldn't) do in response!
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
1 year
I loved peak twitter. I am sad it's gone. I wish there was something to "move to" but it just feels like pure loss. I'm pretty sure I'll get over it. I'm easy to find for people who wanna find me, and I'll keep hanging out here as long as at least some of my friends are.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
Single stock ETFs aren't a systemic risk *yet*, but the levers are there: with a volume imbalance, they could be problematic at end of day. Definite "pay attention" time. I took a deep dive into the market structure and math:
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
1 year
@herbgreenberg No horse in the race, but man was this a piece of work. I've read a lot of forensic investment research over the years, and while I have no personal knowledge of any of the facts, it certainly ain't "unresearched." This wasn't like, a ChatGPT prompt "write me a book on ..."
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
I keep reading all these "things to do since your stuck at home" articles and the gap between job-types has never been more apparent. I'm working at least 50% harder/longer than I was this time last year. I'm exhausted by noon, and catatonic by dinner.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Man, love him or hate him, but @KeithMcCullough is doing the @hedgeye morning call from a cold, dark, pipes-burst hotel in Texas and the combo platter of bonkers, manic delivery while sticking to the data is one of the funniest things I've ever heard. He might be losing it.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
8 months
My Latest: Figure out where AI can boost your workflow, whether your an investor, an advisor, or just a cubicle worker. For me? I replaced Google entirely with AI search.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
My latest. Everything you wanted to know about a Bitcoin Futures ETF but we’re afraid to ask. Gets into all the potential “some worry” business, tax codes, contango, cayman’s, Canada, etc.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
This makes the rounds every summer and it still makes me laugh. #Getoutside but stay careful out there!
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
So while the DoJ tries to blame the “radical left”’the actual arrests are of white supremicists torching stuff. Got it. We live in Orwellian times.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
11 months
3 hours in the woods with @ppearlman … he’s utterly infectious in his optimism and belief in everyone’s ability to improve their health and well-being. Left the parking lot completely energized.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
The future of finance (at least in my official @Vetta_Fi branded 🔮) is going to run right through @biancoresearch territory. Few fish, but we spent the time trying to test run tokenized asset management, bond trading and defi, and laughed in the sun. #getoutside
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
So, $BITO continues to track its INAV very tightly with very thin spreads. Perhaps more importantly, CME futures continue to track Spot Bitcoin basically like they have been. Supply and Demand exist, but so far, the market structure is transmitting them efficiently.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
6 years
ETF Deep-Nerd Alert: The comment letter from @iShares on the ETF Rule is a master class in how creation/redemption actually works. Read pages 6-12 (with the footnotes) and you'll be smarter. I know I am now.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
I have achieved WFH nirvana. A purpose for every screen. For every screen a purpose. (Yes, I’m ridiculous).
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
OK, so, a whole-lotta noise around $ARKK and how they manage liquidity. Here's my deep (sorry, it's 3k words) convo with the COO, Tom Staudt. We hit on a whole range of topics from how they use custom baskets to how they handled unloading Wirecard.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
New England fall hiking is the best kind of hiking, the best kind of fall, and the best part of New England all at once.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 months
The next thing I look at is how many TINY trades there are. And the answer here is "an enormous number" -- I could load all this in a histogram but thats a ton of work. After hitting "Page Down" 20 times and seeing page after page of 10 share, 10 share, 5 share trades, I know…
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
As @EpsilonTheory would say: Art.
@headcrack_456
LIBERATION IS NEAR
2 years
now this is cinema
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
7 months
A fantastic piece from @Ritholtz on the whole Michael Lewis outrage machine, with a side order of one of my favorite moments at any dinner I've ever been at, but that was not my story to tell. Glad Barry did!
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Seems like the single biggest day of inflows into $ARKK in history. @ARKInvest has pulled in $8.6 Billion this year so far. Just an incredible run of asset gathering.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
After a bunch of requests, I wrote up this morning's @ETFTrends presentation. An Imperfect Theory Of What's Going On. Replay link in there as well.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
New England fall is amazing. No filter, seriously. Just another weekend walk. Chester, MA
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
2500 feet of climbing. 1400 calories. 3 hours. 2 good friends. 1 great morning. Thanks for the hike @choffstein and @BrianKelleherNY … good to be seeing folks again!
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
I’m just extremely grateful to work for a place where I can both be myself (I mean, look at this picture, I’m *ridiculous*) and also really reach to do the work of making finance better, every day, for the actual people it impacts. Which (checks notes) is pretty much everyone.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
7 years
When @ritholtz spends 20 minutes recommending a book, listen. I just openly wept on an airplane finishing a non fiction book on Octopuses.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
My latest @Vetta_Fi : Huh. It turns out I have *thoughts* about Payment for Order Flow, commission free trading and NBBO price improvement. I never know until I jump into the rabbithole. () What's your take:
PFOF is a Net positive
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PFOF is a Net negative
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
1 year
@scottmelker 56 and same. The older I get, the more convinced I am I know nothing and that kindness is the only superpower. That includes being kind to my dumbass self-at-20 in retrospect!
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
18 days
@biancoresearch Because it's the super-smoothed set? You know you can get every states filings down to the individual unadjusted in the literal same document from the DOL right? I think you showed me! The numbers move A LOT if you look under the hood. Why is this suspect? Are you suggesting…
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 months
I MEAN come on. Someone fire the writers. This is not a believable reality
@GaryGensler
Gary Gensler
4 months
The @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Going on day 4 of being locked out of my @coinbase account ... no responses to emails, no phone number you can call, no ability to interact with “my” account in anyway. And people wonder why there’s suspicion. At least @CharlesSchwab has a phone number.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
Gonna respect the game here and make you go fill out the form so they send you the letter. It’s a 22-page BANGER of an argument against the Volcker playbook. You can disagree with @jam_croissant conclusions, but some Ender’s Game Locke v. Demosthenes level school going on here.
@jam_croissant
Cem Karsan 🥐
2 years
We're making the latest 🥐 investor letter public! Sign up to our mailing list for access 👇👇
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Thanks for all the well wishes on the big announcement that I'm joining @TomHendrickSun and @TomLydon to form the ETF-Nerd-Voltron. More info when I officially start in a few weeks.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Watching Hamilton tonight. I'm welling up almost every single button. It's a love letter to everything it feels like we've lost, and warcry for the future. Saw it 4 times live, and i didn't know how much i needed it, right now, on TV, with my family screaming the words.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
TIL, my grandfather worked a second shift at a tank factory after his day job in the ‘40s. My 78yr old mom: “it’s insane we’re not mobilizing like we did then. Why aren’t you driving vaccine around or working in a plant?”
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
I grew up on a farm with guns around. Took my son to a range for his 16th birthday. I’m not an anti gun zealot. But folks, the US has had 147 mass shootings this year. This country has a gun problem. This shouldn’t be a political statement.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
1 year
Today didn’t suck. #getoutside
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 months
A bit of news! Today is my last day @Vetta_Fi ... It's been an amazing two years with an amazing team, but time for new things. More info here:
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Wait, I can't figure it out: Is low oil good or bad? Three weeks ago it was GREAT, now high prices are GREAT?
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 months
Because it's now an FAQ: $BITO had options trading 2 days after it listed in 2021 (10/18/21), because it's structured as a traditional 1940 Act fund. The new Spot ETFs are generally trusts that, like GLD, will require new 19b4 approval from exchanges for Options to trade.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
I think sometimes #FINTWIT dismisses folks like @kylascan as "social media people." Nothing about this is really "social media." This is just solid investment writing that happens to have a different tone than the stuff us middle aged white guys write. I'm a fan.
@kylascan
Kyla Scanlon
3 years
Full write up here with @gannonbreslin And Youtube will be posted soon
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 months
Notably, this pattern wasn't just in HODL, the nearly identical pattern is present in most BTC ETFs, here's BITB for instance -- same "algo cliff" at 1230. Lunch breaks for the win:
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
5 years
This piece by @ReformedBroker on investment newsletters is totally on point. I’ve also been thinking a lot about the increasingly important role of video: basically no advisors do it yet.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
Wow. This is a big deal. I know the AUM is pretty decent, but $1.4B for 47,000 clients seems like ... $30,000 a client. Comparison: SCHW is worth $171B and has 32m clients, or $5,500/client. yes yes, apples, oranges but still interesting.
@EricBalchunas
Eric Balchunas
2 years
JUST IN: UBS is acquiring Wealthfront for $1.4b in cash in effort to get Millennials and Gen Z investors. Welathfront is a robo advisor w/ $27b in aum and 47k clients ht @tpsarofagis
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Wow, I guess I shouldn't leave my DMs open. Apparently suggesting the presidents daughter and son in law aren't in the top 10 experts on epidemiology and economics earns me death threats! Wheee!!!
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
Finally got to do a double #getoutside with @DeadCaitBounce !
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
8 days
Current status: hiking as far away from humans as i can get all day, whilst still spending evenings near enough to civilization that i can sit in on guitar at the pub after dinner, for as many days as I can, wash rinse repeat: #getoutside #makemusic
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
1 year
The 100 minute @exchangeETF session on the future of finance with @DiMartinoBooth @profplum99 @tom_morganKCP @biancoresearch @IAmGeorgiaS and @GestaltU goes live at 11. Live streaming link, bibliography and slides should be up at our scratchpad website:
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
At this point some VC should just hire @kylascan and get ahead of the rush.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Steepest hike I know in the Berkshires. Not highest but oof. Great morning. 2000ft straight up.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
Not the worst writing view. Watching the light emerge on new snow. Pretty hard to beat.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Why I'm incredibly excited to host y'all next February. We're launching a new event called Exchange. It's gonna be lit.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
5 years
My rebuttal to Bloomberg's "ETFs are a nefarious tax dodge" story:
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
5 years
This piece from @MstarETFUS on ETF ownership cost is so complete it makes me jealous I didn't write it. Foundational reading right here.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Late summer New England hiking often means hours in the green tunnel. I find it deeply peaceful. Happy Labor Day folks. #getoutside
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 months
But, if you load up HODL in TRLM Surveyor (a forensic tool I dig), you can see that the algo absolutely sat there until around 1230, then went home. All those red and green spikes are "bursts" of quoted volumes that are outside the spread.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 months
(Also, I could be wrong about all of this, because market structure changes continuously, so if you know I'm wrong, send me stuff so I can figure it out!)
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
Amazing (if hot and strenuous) day of hiking paid off in wonder. #getoutside
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
This, from @MorningstarInc , will fly under the radar, but this is the best work on bond pricing how it creates weird reality dispersions when it comes to rolling up fixed income NAVs. Click, then download the paper, if you care about bond pricing.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
Is anyone else just super uncomfortable with today's narrative? I keep reading stuff that has the tone of "we're through it! Party on!" not "OK, maybe we're ready in a few places for the next brutal month or two."
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 months
I have no idea who to give credit for, but the word-nerd in me just died laughing.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
New From Me: I sat down with @michaelbatnick of @RitholtzWealth to talk about what it means to be an innovator inside an RIA. We discuss their forward-thinking approach to Crypto, Custom/Direct Indexing, ESG, tactical, and the future of advice:
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 months
If we zoom in you can see one of these "headfakes" clearly: The green bar is Bids, and over on the right you can see that for this few second window, 100k shares shows up "bid" but 9 cents below the last trade. Three seconds later its gone never having traded, but it served to…
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Re-upping for the morning crew: My take on $GME. What if it's more about about TikTok and curation algos than Gamma. Contains embarrassing anecdotes about *me*. A gift of schadenfreude on this snowy Wednesday morning.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 months
And just as a fun sidenote, Friday was the first day we saw this quote pattern for these funds, and they took the afternoon off to go Skiing it looks like:
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
When @EpsilonTheory wrote about corrupt non-partisan political responses to crises, he essentially "called" this whistelblower complaint. Craziest, dysfunctional thing I've read today, and it's been a day: ->
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
So, I went on @jposhaughnessy 's wonderful show, @InfiniteL88ps , and talked about Metaverse stuff. I also talked about ... a lot of other stuff ... so I thought I'd make a thread with a few links to all the authordropping weirdness. A 🧵
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
Delighted to have @hardikasingh28 from @WSJ as a boat partner today @ #campkotok chatting ETFs, rural Traditions, energy policy, the VettaFi mission and journalism. She crushed fish of the day with this 17 inch Bass. #getoutside
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
“I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.” ― Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
6 years
Many of y'all know that @Matt_Hougan is my best friend in the whole wide world, so I'm grinning from ear to ear that he's making a giant career move. To the stars Matt!!!
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
2 years
Starting to fill up my Fintwit Pokémon gym with this evidence that @jus10castelli isn’t just an AI construct. With bonus @choffstein for reality anchor. #ExchangeETF is definitely about the people.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
4 years
$BLK will receive no compensation for the Fed-ETF buying, and will rebate any expense ratios from BlackRock ETFs in the program. This is the right answer, and the transparency is great.
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@DaveNadig
Dave Nadig
3 years
Views worthy of the climb. Happy spring. The worlds waking up.
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