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Michael Green Profile
Michael Green

@profplum99

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Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of $FIG | not investment advice

Places unknown
Joined December 2012
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@profplum99
Michael Green
1 year
Let’s be clear, if you’re financing a pair of jeans, you’re not making good life choices
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
"I can see clearly now... my brain is gone..."
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@profplum99
Michael Green
8 months
Perfect…
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@profplum99
Michael Green
15 days
Just a reminder that GDP stands for "Gross" Domestic Product. The future maintenance of these projects will be insane and ultimately destroy what little remains of China's growth story.
@Rainmaker1973
Massimo
15 days
China's Yaxi Expressway
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@profplum99
Michael Green
1 year
Mike's list for 2023
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
1/n That was an ugly close on Friday. As you know I am extremely concerned about the upcoming economic risks and markets seem to be trying to reflect some of these concerns. However, I am also concerned that sentiment (not valuations) MORE than reflects these fears
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
Unacceptable. GoFundMe is dead to me. @gofundme
@robbystarbuck
Robby Starbuck
2 years
They’ve done it again. GoFundMe just deleted the Canadian Freedom Convoy fundraiser and they’re saying that the millions of dollars they took in will not be returned but given to "established + credible" charities. This is criminal. Stop using @GoFundMe #Honk
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@profplum99
Michael Green
1 year
Oldest son about to graduate college… opened his time capsule… check out the interest rates from 2000:
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
Did Bitcoin miss earnings?
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
El Salvador did not benefit from bitcoin… it’s a suicide mission driven by hubris
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@profplum99
Michael Green
1 month
100% agree. Enough already.
@anasalhajji
Anas Alhajji
1 month
A must watch! This is my hero! He is Mohamed Irfaan Ali, President of Guyana. #Oil #Guyana
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@profplum99
Michael Green
1 year
This is very exciting! Unlimited FDIC insurance! So stop moving your money out of 0.5% banks and into 5% money market funds! Who’s with me?!?!
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@profplum99
Michael Green
11 months
The really incredible part of this propaganda is the absolute failure to question why the subway in Guangzhou (population 15 million) is empty.
@ricwe123
Richard
11 months
After experiencing the subway in Guangzhou, China, this American tourist became less proud of the subway in New York.......
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@profplum99
Michael Green
3 years
Tesla and BTC... the singularity approaches
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
1/n OK, now that the market has your attention and Michael Saylor has fired his CFO (he did do that, didn't he? Seems like they might have checked into the accounting first...) and Cathy Wood is on everyone's radar, figured I'd share a few thoughts
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
It’s official… the swimmer committed today. Bold move. Go Navy, Beat Army.
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
It’s like we’ve made gaslighting the national sport
@financialjuice
FinancialJuice
2 years
US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: I'M NOT SEEING EVIDENCE OF A US RECESSION NOW.
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 months
For those wondering what causes me to doubt my own deflation thesis? This type of idiocy. Supply shortage? Subsidize demand!
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@profplum99
Michael Green
7 months
Prepared to bid at auction for a foreclosure property… auction cancelled due to no competing bids… opening bid minimum was down 67% from last appraisal. No bids. Real estate is fine… /s
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@profplum99
Michael Green
1 year
Layoffs rising (increase in rate) faster than pre-Lehman
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@profplum99
Michael Green
5 months
About that “slowly and then all at once”….
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
And then there were none… (last shot before the buzz). I’ll see him for half an hour this evening and then only letters until mid-August. So incredibly proud of his choices, but I’d be lying if I didn’t admit a little part of me just died #USNA
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@profplum99
Michael Green
1 year
Texas about to reap the 1970s California-whirlwind. Property tax and insurance increases hitting escrow accounts in 3…2….1….
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@profplum99
Michael Green
1 year
Totally dude!
@APompliano
Pomp 🌪
3 years
I think @BlockFi will be one of the most important companies in the world. Retweet if you agree!!
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@profplum99
Michael Green
3 years
I’m sorry... what?
@DailyCaller
Daily Caller
3 years
PSAKI: "Even after you’re vaccinated, social distancing and wearing masks will be essential."
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@profplum99
Michael Green
3 years
. @YouTube this is embarrassing
@GeorgeGammon
George Gammon
3 years
Rebel Capitalist channel has been removed by @YouTube . I received no warnings, no strikes, no evidence. Just email saying it was removed. Only explanation was “severe or repeated violations of community guidelines.” Makes no sense? Was very careful to follow rules.
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Michael Green
9 months
“The market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent” — the China bears were “right” every step along the way, but by 2021 none were left standing.
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
13/13 In other words, today was real, YTD has been brutal and for many of the more speculative names (potentially including BTC) I'd argue the pain may accelerate. But I'm not sure this is THE EVENT that everyone is looking for. Just my 2c and 13 tweets.
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Michael Green
1 year
Honey-baked ham?
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Michael Green
2 years
Brilliantly articulated (and gesticulated). When “reporters” like @NickTimiraos and @steveliesman depend on access for their jobs, we can’t expect them to ask the hard questions. But they should. An international embarrassment. @federalreserve Chair Powell should resign.
@Geiger_Capital
Geiger Capital
2 years
Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School ripping apart Powell and the Fed… “They Know Nothing” 2.0
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Michael Green
9 months
Why AREN'T you reading this now? “Heartland Tri-State Bank became insolvent due to an isolated event" "the bank had approximately $139 million in total assets and $130 million in total deposits." "The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance…
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@profplum99
Michael Green
3 years
In all seriousness, what started as a penal colony appears to be returning to its roots. This is insanity. "They" can't arrest 25 million people. Stand up.
@michaelpsenger
Michael P Senger
3 years
Greater Sydney, Australia extends lockdown and announces stricter measures. Exercise now limited to one hour, masked, per day. Curfew after 9pm. And police now authorized to seal entire apartment buildings like the CCP claims to have done in Wuhan.
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Michael Green
1 year
When @balajis tells you outright fabrications that are easily disproven, e.g. "Chinese banks are soaring as Western banks are failing", please ask "Why are you reading this now?" He's not a dummy, which means he's selling ewe something.
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
Bitcoin... best performing asset of past 6 hours
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
If only they'd gone 100bps... just think of the rally
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
1/n Last night, @DrPippaM and I discussed the increasing irrelevance of the price signals we are seeing. Charts of forward pricing of German power contracts up 3000% in 5 years are not "meaningful" -- they are signs of market failure. @DuncanWeldon hitting same idea
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@profplum99
Michael Green
1 year
Chat-GPT 4 deriving general equation for equilibrium wage in college level econ test. It's gonna get really weird, really fast people.
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Michael Green
1 year
I’m getting the sense early morning transit demand between San Francisco and Philadelphia is low… even in our “booming economy”…
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@profplum99
Michael Green
5 months
Daughter brought home a boyfriend… he brought a gift… he can stay for now…
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Michael Green
2 years
13/13 So let's end on lucky 13... "You've got to ask yourself one Q: 'Do I Feel Lucky?' Because this is the most powerful bubble the world has ever seen and can blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya?"
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Michael Green
2 years
Update… appreciate the gesture but we’re in a “one strike you’re out” world as it relates to this behavior when it can be accomplished. Others may choose differently, but I’m still done @gofundme
@gofundme
GoFundMe
2 years
To simplify the process for our users, we will be refunding all donations to the Freedom Convoy 2022 fundraiser. This refund will happen automatically—you do not need to submit a request. Donors can expect to see refunds within 7-10 business days.
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Michael Green
2 years
“This is the missing piece of the jigsaw puzzle without which the rest cannot be deciphered. The Narrative does not make sense until we understand that we are watching a new, radical form of techno-authoritarianism unfold before our eyes.” — must read
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Michael Green
1 year
In hindsight... yes...
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Michael Green
1 year
Borrowers whose student loan debt was suspended, used the increased debt capacity to borrow more. Beautiful. Avocado on whole grain credit… toast
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@NeelyTamminga
Neely
1 year
What happens if (when…) student loans go back into repayment? New insight: student loan holders celebrated forbearance by loading up on debt. Working paper on studying consumption post student loan moratorium announcement in 2020. h/t @MarcGoldwein
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Michael Green
1 year
I hate aging… that whole “tip of the tongue” phenomenon where I just can’t think of the word I’m searching for… it’s there for fleeting second and then gone… maybe if I illustrate it…
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Michael Green
28 days
Yet another data point that just doesn't fit the narrative. When looked at by the sub point "New Delinquencies Due to Unemployment" we've also set a new record. Think about that for a moment... theoretically low unemployment and surging delinquencies due to unemployment?…
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@MrAwsumb
Mr.Awsumb
28 days
When we remove the newly created "due to national emergency category", we've actually set a new record for "New 90+ day delinquencies". (guess why that category existed?) 2/6
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Michael Green
4 years
Lol... I literally said the exact opposite!
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Michael Green
3 years
Wife shared this video with tears... enough... if you can help out, please do. And it’s time to stand up imho.
@SpencerKlavan
Spencer A. Klavan
3 years
Watch this video, folks. Sound on.
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Michael Green
1 year
The “let it burn” quote tweets and comments tell you everything you need to know. Everyone is comfortably numb to the consequences.
@spectatorindex
The Spectator Index
1 year
BREAKING: White House says if the US defaults, the stock market is expected to decline by more than 45%.
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Michael Green
25 days
Boy, those tech growth stocks are going to get DESTROYED when rates move higher...
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Michael Green
1 year
Everyone enjoying the increase in "Core Services ex-Housing"? Know what's driving it? Imputed costs of financial services and motor vehicle leasing... which is 90% tied to interest rates. Like Volcker, Powell is creating his own inflation.
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Michael Green
4 years
Proud father shout out... daughter just made the Under Armour All-America Volleyball list. D1 committed and puts more effort into her sport than I could ever have imagined. Congrats, Ella!
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Michael Green
3 years
“I don’t really care what you think”... the campaign slogan for the end of the Republic
@INVESTMENTSHULK
INVESTMENT HULK
3 years
LOOK AT THIS SHIT...
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@profplum99
Michael Green
3 years
With my teen daughter off to college, some may ask “Hey Prof, what’s it like?” Well, I’ll tell you… it’s like a hole has been ripped in my heart and replaced by much less need for laundry. Bad trade.
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Michael Green
2 years
Labor force participation Men 25-54... the trend is not your friend...
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Michael Green
5 months
The economic ignorance is like a nightmare that won't end... so maybe not transitory...
@JoeBiden
Joe Biden
5 months
Let me be clear to any corporation that hasn’t brought their prices back down even as inflation has come down: It’s time to stop the price gouging. Give American consumers a break.
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Michael Green
4 years
I’m speechless. When a “group leader in systems biology at Oxford” believes “science runs by consensus” we have utterly failed. @wolfejosh
@AdamCribbs
Adam Cribbs
4 years
@ThatKatyaGirl I’m not an epidemiologist, I’m a computational biologist, not my field so I’m not going to pretend I know how to model pandemics. Science runs by consensus and the consensus in the field that this and other models for this pandemic are good.
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Michael Green
4 months
Wish me luck!
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Michael Green
1 year
Agree with Demetri. To the extent there is a "strategy" here, it will take form of "expensive credit for most, subsidized credit for policy." You want to borrow to buy a house? 7%. You want to borrow to build a solar farm? 3%. You want to borrow to build a munitions factory? 0%.
@kofinas
Demetri Kofinas
1 year
I continue to believe that markets are missing the bigger picture of what is happening here. The Swiss government just engineered a bailout of its second-largest bank and it followed that up with a 50bp rate hike. This is what credit rationing looks like. 🧵👇🏻
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Michael Green
1 year
Everyone focused on $SIVB might want to take a more systemic view...
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@profplum99
Michael Green
1 year
Yes, I give a FIG... thoughts on markets from Michael Green/Profplum99: The Valley of Despair
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Michael Green
2 years
I personally think the perfect chaser to a series of rate hikes into an economic contraction is a series of tax hikes. Much like Drano after Borax as a dental regimen.
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Michael Green
2 years
“Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive… those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.” — CS Lewis
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Michael Green
3 years
Lol... To my knowledge, might be the first time a podcast host blocked a prior guest with no direct interaction. Maxis are so easily hurt...
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Michael Green
3 years
And so it begins…
@wstrzelecki
Witold Strzelecki
3 years
Big news as the Finnish🇫🇮 government's official endorsement of #nuclear as a sustainable energy source marks a U-turn within the Green Party sitting in the cabinet. Traditionally anti-nuclear, "the Greens now claim to have a technology-neutral attitude".
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Michael Green
2 months
BIll Gates and I walk into the bar... Bartender: "Wow... couple of billionaires on average!"
@wabuffo
Bill
2 months
yep - a record high US household net worth. So much for excess savings are gone...
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Michael Green
2 years
Breadth is terrible. I cannot easily recall another day with this many stocks down in SPX and market positive. Only comp is July 2015 about halfway through the EM bedshit of 2014-Feb 2016. More evidence of bear market rally imho.
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Michael Green
4 months
The stock market is NOT a stock index. While the Chinese stock INDEX is down, the market cap is up roughly 10x since 2002. Share dilution up the wazoo.
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@EconomPic
Jake
4 months
THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT THE ECONOMY Chart of the year so far... the MSCI China Index is about to go NEGATIVE since its 1992 inception The Chinese economy is ~13x larger and an investment in it has gotten you the same return as if you put your cash under your mattress
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Michael Green
3 years
Game over...
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@profplum99
Michael Green
3 years
OK, but don't expect me to go as easy on you as I did on @nic__carter
@APompliano
Pomp 🌪
3 years
I hereby challenge @profplum99 to a debate on Bitcoin and the future prospects of the digital currency. He can pick the venue and the moderator. I'll be there as long as he isn't afraid of changing his mind :)
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Michael Green
2 years
Wage price spiral my tookus... job SWITCHERS experiencing negative real wage change. That only happens in recessions and jobless recoveries. Absurd to think this job market is strong.
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@profplum99
Michael Green
7 months
1/n It's always a bit sad to see posts like this proclaiming the low-end household is "in great shape." One, talk to them. They're not. Two, the analysis is just wrong. Let's dig in.
@wabuffo
Bill
8 months
Great stuff published by the Federal Reserve yesterday on distribution of wealth among US households. This is a long-term run chart of net wealth among the bottom 50% going back to 1989. 1) notice how the GFC really hit this segment hard - destroying 75% of this group's net…
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@profplum99
Michael Green
3 years
Apparently widely shared. First time I have seen. Endorse. Applies to ecology and financial markets!
@KarakeMark
Mark Karake
3 years
“We are going to kill ourselves because of stupidity”
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Michael Green
2 years
Tell me you have circuit breakers without telling me you have circuit breakers
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Michael Green
2 years
I'm really trying to get worked up about this whole commodity boom thang... but I just don't see it... Copper/Gold hanging out in normalsville... absolutely nothing like the 2004-8 cycle (driven by institutional demand imho). Can it change? Sure. But for now... nah
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Michael Green
1 year
Might be the single most illuminating statistic on the "lockdowns" and subsequent breakdown in labor markets I've seen yet...
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Michael Green
1 year
Amazing how quickly applications are emerging for ChatGPT... meanwhile crypto continues to struggle with anything beyond speculation and crime.
@heyBarsee
Barsee 🐶
1 year
The new ChatGPT Code Interpreter is seriously amazing. This is another big recent AI launch that will change everything. Here are 10 of the most useful examples so far👇🧵
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Michael Green
1 year
"I live on a bitcoin standard except for when I need to pay for things. Then I use real money" Nice to meat ewe too.
@zndtoshi
zender
1 year
@profplum99 I live on a bitcoin standard. I am 100% on btc. Have fiat only for monthly expenses. I buy what I think I really need. Nice to meet you.
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Michael Green
2 years
This blog post by David Rosenthal, a co-founder of Nvidia, was shared below by the CTO of MSFT Azure. For anyone investing, or considering investing, in crypto it is a must read imho
@markrussinovich
Mark Russinovich
2 years
I've recently come to believe that public (permissionless) ledgers/blockchains (aka Web3) are a dead end. This post by David Rosenthal does a fantastic job of explaining the issues I identified and more:
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Michael Green
2 years
Oh good… China’s economy grew nicely as workers fell yet again. It’s the miracle of Beijing… since employment peaked in 2014, GDP has risen 62%. Productivity (GDP/wrkr) gains of 7.4% per year… 🙄😂 That’s the same rate Japan experienced post-WW2 to 1973
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Michael Green
2 months
The most misunderstood chart in the world...
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Michael Green
2 years
Updating… this is now the single largest jump in Food & Gasoline spending as % of MEDIAN household income in history and rapidly approaching 2008 peaks. MUCH worse in RoW due to USD strength vs 2008 weakness. Understated in some ways as excludes natgas.
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@profplum99
Michael Green
2 years
1/2 Level or change... savings rate plumbing recent lows as food and gasoline consume more and more of the consumer budget. Credit cards making up the slack for many lower income households...
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Michael Green
1 year
Loving all the hot takes on jobs report... just a reminder, this report captures data up to Sunday, March 12th... anything happen that Monday the 13th?
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Michael Green
2 months
California 2023 job gains revised down 85%… must be the knew math
@LAOEconTax
California Economy & Taxes
2 months
Each year, the U.S. BLS revises the state's jobs number to match actual payroll records from businesses. The latest revision lowered its count of California jobs by 277k. [1/4]
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Michael Green
2 years
With leaders like these, who needs enemies? FFS, Mr. President…
@POTUS
President Biden
2 years
My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product. And do it now.
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Michael Green
3 years
Probably way over sharing, but have to show a really awesome piece of news from a recent blood test. As an overweight, middle aged male with a family history of diabetes, it doesn’t get much better than this. Keto for life!
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Michael Green
2 years
As a reminder, @WClementeIII is 20 years old. In his brief time as a sentient human, he has analyzed all possible outcomes and arrived at a simple “either… or” statement. Few. 🙄
@WClementeIII
Will
2 years
The end game is either Bitcoin as decentralized self-sovereign money or CBDCs as mass surveillance money. To not believe in Bitcoin’s ethos and value proposition is to believe in the competency and integrity of central authority.
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Michael Green
3 years
Ok... gonna have to blow the lid off this SPAC nonsense at some point... the Mark Cuban of 2021 (sold worthless sh-t to a rabid crowd and walked away filthy rich). Note: this is not a suggestion to short SPACs, just the ethics of those deploying them in this manner
@jennablan
Jennifer Ablan
3 years
Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya is the next Warren Buffett, Ritholtz chief Josh Brown says -
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Michael Green
8 months
Still trying to understand why anyone thinks this is impressive. We spent $5T in stimulus to get 2MM fewer jobs than the average over the same length period. @BudgetHawks
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@MarcGoldwein
Marc Goldwein
8 months
The U.S. has added 4 million jobs since before the pandemic. Graph via @katekgen of @BudgetHawks
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Michael Green
3 years
Clubhouse... where the Dunning-Kruger flower flourishes, fueled by copious BS, hot air and spittle. I have this overwhelming sense of loss for the 45 minutes I allowed to die in the experience.
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Michael Green
1 year
Officially the dumbest thing I’ve read today. Ignore the banks failing in practice, because in theory…. Bank liabilities are short-dated, assets long-dated. Maturity transformation is literally the job. Markets begged Powell to stop, but his “legaciness” beckoned.
@FedGuy12
Joseph Wang
1 year
Rising rates decrease the market value of bank assets, but that does not mean they are insolvent. This is because it also decreases the value of their liabilities. Deposits can be withdrawn in any time, but in practice are sticky so like fixed rate debt. It is a natural hedge.
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Michael Green
3 years
“Teacher, how should we invest our savings?” “Well, Cindy, I personally have a defined benefit plan backed by the taxpayer… but for you, I recommend passive index and target date funds.”
@NickatFP
Nick (⚠️)
3 years
"They should teach personal finance in high school"
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Michael Green
2 years
I’m often asked about books. While I love history, a weak spot for me has always been math. Theory books on math, especially visual, have always helped me comprehend techniques even if my computation and formulation remains sub-par. A good list here
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Michael Green
1 year
"I've never said that wages are a principle driver of inflation" J. Powell. "We need to get wages down to a level consistent with 2% inflation." Also J.Powell FFS
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Michael Green
1 year
This remains one of the craziest chart pictures in my career... at every maturity the market is saying "no way" to the Fed... closest analog is an "inverse" 1995-6 when Greenspan Fed kept rates lower while market thought inflation a risk and politicians pushed for lower rates…
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Michael Green
1 year
Well... there it is... same day the Fed tells us there's miles to go before they sleep...
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Michael Green
2 years
"Five interest rate increases, with more to come, may finally put the brakes on the run-away market. " -- Jeremy Grantham, April 2000* 2022... "hold my beer" Note: * Fed hiked only one more time in May 2000 then cut 550bps
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Michael Green
8 months
I wonder what my frequent searches for "Bankruptcy" is doing to my credit rating...
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Michael Green
2 years
Way back in the Dotcom cycle, there was a website that tracked the dotbombs… can some enterprising CryptoTwit resurrect please? Tough to keep track now that they’re coming fast and furious…
@zhusu
朱溯 🐂
2 years
We are in the process of communicating with relevant parties and fully committed to working this out
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Michael Green
7 months
I read this nonsense everywhere. Margin is not free you degens… borrow $1MM at 6.83% (best case) and invest to earn 5.2%… great trade!
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@sethm1776
Crypto Trafficker
7 months
@Convertbond In your scenario— Open portfolio margin acct: buy $1M in short duration T-bills to earn 5.2%, then you have approx $990k in buying power to pursue option premium generation / other trade strategies as Tbills don’t take much buying power. Will easily earn over 10% in aggregate
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Michael Green
2 years
Can someone... ANYONE... please explain to me how an ECB rate hike will reduce German energy prices in a sustainable fashion? We have thousands of years of history and I have yet to find another example of "hiking interest rates to fight a war"
@LiveSquawk
LiveSquawk
2 years
Near 50-Year High German Inflation Strengthens Case For Larger ECB Rate Rise - RTRS
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