CrosscheckC @CrosscheckC Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@Louisa_ds

@mynshmrki

@jlpatrickriley

@inni3sharkk

@zona_ada4177

@thvxdx

@jakelovesgracie

@UpasanaTaku

@LUVUBarkada

@VITRINEgallery

@aqdrnationale

@stw_pdg

@tswft_13

@LCU_ftball

@NuttyIsa

@Glico_happy

@DHristo78

@JilatanJilbab

@sserkan_k

@NuttyIsa

@EllieSeda

@SudjaiJiti34773

@hamody_qasem

@jiu_lu61549

@Pecintastw4050

@charihime_rcc

@haru_sugar02

@meghacreations_

@manuelsaotome

@pupybutt

@BRKLYN01R

@EdgeAutism

@SamuelBrownRBT

@monchomad

@JilatanJilbab

@Alipskuy_24

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

6 months

@zerohedge Theoretically, could GME now invest its cash balance in AMC puts and thus creating a recursive shitnado of self-referencing meme madness?

11

1

106

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

6 months

@bucketshopcap I make a distinction between hoverage and coverage Coverage - have an updated model, have met with management past 6mo and a price target Hoverage - stale model and I know the biz, only updating when sector/theme is actionable. Incl tiny foothold/starter pos & idea bankshots

5

0

91

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@Post_Market Boats: HZO, ONEW, MBUU, MCFT Powersports: PII, DOO CN Reopening: MCG, HA

2

0

53

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

3 months

@DeepSailCapital Rec Boating (sadboi summer): $mbuu $mcft $onew $hzo $lcii $patk US Air: $algt $ulcc $save $alk Freight: $atsg + ponzi $cjt_cn B&M growth concept: $krus $bros $mcw $bowl $modg High flyer decel (mind ur factors): $duol $you Junk (ditto): $shco $aur $joby $achr $mond $dna $me

9

1

43

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

5 months

@Chariot_Invest A great book would just be like hundreds of case studies w/ contemporaneous news / sell side research / VIC chatter / estimates, 13Fs, idea dinner pitches etc. To vicariously ‘live through’ the moments of truth, signposts and what the zeitgeist right bef perception shifted

1

4

39

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 months

@Guruleaks1 This drained my last 2% of faith-in-system

1

0

33

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@rhunterh @tom_morganKCP Beat me to it! But it deserves 2 comments tho. Here’s my exhaustive search for “movies like primer” and also “true or realistic investigative thrillers”. Favorite niches, there’s not enough

4

2

33

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

6 months

@RiskRewardSkew YOU are in biz to generate P&L. THEY are in biz to generate sector/factor neutral intrasector relative alpha. Their questions r useful for the latter. Market fees say healthy demand it If they’ve met w/ mgmt 2x/qtr for all peers 4 yrs, big picture is redundant It’s a dif biz

2

0

32

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

9 months

@FundamentEdge Section 4-6 are so good. Having gone from MM->SM reading those felt like watching my edge erode in real-time. Good content. Pls stop though

2

0

32

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

6 months

@bucketshopcap There’s alotta money to be made in names you don’t “know better than mgmt and all ur competitors” it’s faux pas to say that, but sometimes bankshots in your core idea, or having a large breadth of employable names to express thematic/short adjustments just makes more alpha

2

0

32

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@DeepSailCapital Cyclical peaks @ mmnt of truth: - Boats: $onew $hzo $mcft $mbuu $bc - $ctj_cn cargo overearner + ponzi Insider toxic-PIPE heist: $otly $lilm $goev Broken reopeners w/ hockeystick 2H cons: $mcg $seat $vcsa $algt Decel + CAC blowout: $duol $pd $cour $udmy Special victim unit: $ha

1

30

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

9 months

@ShippingNews8 Having been on both sides, the SM model wld benefit a lot from implementing aspects of podshop earnings season approach. Or should ignore short term. But evaluating/paying-mind-to daily reactions w/o measuring sector/mkt/factor impact or a window around print is counterproductive

3

0

31

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@manualofideas It’s a long way down still for most former high fliers till they reach BK-risk/option value/equity-stub territory. If you’re looking for that asymmetric u/d (less asymmetric when prob wtd) I’d argue you’ll find more levered equity stubs with torque in industrials land - more debt

1

0

6

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

6 months

@RiskRewardSkew I’m not even at a pod, and there’s some silliness to it, but honestly when I see these takes I just see a wilful ignorance of how other market participants mandate/value-prop and alot of backpatting. Usually ‘everyone else is so dumb’ isn’t actually the explanation for anything

1

30

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

7 months

@DeepSailCapital Rec boating: esp dealers $hzo $onew NAM airl: esp $algt $ual $ulcc $sncy Airfreight: esp $CJT_CN $atsg eu peers Decel nonsense: $duol $you Evtols: $joby $achr $lilm B&M growth: $krus $bowl $bros $mcw Discret home: $alrm $gnrc $smg $pool $rdfn Maybe(?) guns, freight brokers

3

1

29

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

5 months

@DeepSailCapital Boats/powersports: $mbuu $hzo $mcft $onew $doo_cn $pii $hog Brick-and-mortar growth concept: $krus $bowl $modg $bros Autonomous/eVTOL: $joby $arch $aur $lilm Other: $you $abr $mpw $cjt_cn Maybe(?): shoe fads, life-science reits, BNPL, auto components

7

1

29

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

7 months

@DeepSailCapital Outdoor (esp boats): $hzo $onew $mbuu $mcft $hog $lcii $pii $doo.to $rgr $cwh $wgo $tho B&M growth concept: $krus $bowl $modg $bros $dnut $sg US Airlines: $algt $sncy $ulcc paired Airfreight: $CJT.TO $ATSG Nonsense: $shco $joby $achr $lilm $vuzi Proptech: $open $rdfn $smrt $rezi

2

0

28

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

5 months

@Chariot_Invest - movement of revisions & impact on the timing of alpha realization, especially relative alpha. ‘Shape’ of alpha - options 4 alpha capture 2 express fundamental views (not quant/arb nor all the retail nonsense) - IRR based research prioritization - beyond u/d: time-ability

1

28

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@DeepSailCapital Still Boats: $hzo $onew $mbuu $mcft Web-ed: $cour $udmy $duol Broken growth/Unit Economics: $cjt_cn $mcg $you $bfly $kind $seat $sond $dkng $w $dm $xmtr $vmeo $vuzi US Ailrine w/ silly guides: $algt $ual $ulcc $sncy Materials (maybe?): $pkg $bldr Special Victim’s Unit: $ha

7

2

28

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@ChairliftCap Screening & idea generation & ‘first pass’. Getting a long pipeline of unique ideas & quickly narrowing it down and forcing existing ideas to compete with new ideas

2

0

27

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@veryfinanceguy Excluding today’s fiasco: Delta - good if you’re expensing Southwest - good for out of pocket United - if u live in hub, > Delta American - u didn’t rly need ur bags JetBlue - cheap lie flat, if available Spirit - cancellations & brawls Hawaiian - pay triple for flower livery

0

28

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

11 months

@lfg_cap @pekwat Faves: MODL EQRV HSP EEG GF FTW Least Faves: PORT

1

0

27

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

8 months

@guastywinds Yep - they usually try to paper over the cracks in the hull before it sinks These w signposts help w/ timing, conviction & alpha capture Lotsa new little tricks: UP-C/TRA, anti-dilutive exclusions, op lease calcs, contract acct’ing, ELOCs etc That’s ur pocket bein picked

3

1

27

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@LSValue Flying taxis: $joby $achr $lilm $blde $evtl $embk Autonomous trucking: $tsp $aur Cash Incinerator Reopeners: $you $mcg $rent US Network Airlines: $aal $ha $skyw ESG/Lidar junk: $lidr, $lazr, $qs, $gevo Probably boat dealers, ltl truckers, bnpl, fashion ecom too

2

26

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

8 months

@bucketshopcap I genuinely thought/think GLP-1 thesis tweets are parodies of AI hype. I am now second guessing that, but still pretty sure they’d jokes

3

0

26

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@Jamshidkarimi17 @gurgavin And the people they sold to?

2

0

24

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

5 months

@andrewryanatx @SamRo I will bet you $10k : $100 you can’t flip 70 out of 100 heads with a quarter Dm me Will FaceTime I’m serious, easy money 4 u

3

0

25

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@MadThunderdome $hzo $onew - boat dealers. Powerboat units volms are above ‘06 peak and >3x ASP mostly bought on LT loans. Massive demand pull fwd + suppl constr in Covid drove Dealer’s boat-sales GP ~18% -> ~28%. promotions back, inv building, FP interest+++. Blew windfall on M&A & levered up

2

0

23

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@DeepSailCapital Assorted spec-tech: $sklz $ionq $smrt $nrdy $dm $mkfg $bfly $ionq Pet dtc: $frpt $trup $rovr $bark Reopener 0s: $mcg $rent $ha $sond Green promotions: $muln $goev $arvl Flying taxis/autonomous: $aur $tsp $eh $lilm $joby $blde $lidr $lazr Transports: $cjt $odfl Boats: $onew $hzo

1

22

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

10 months

@DeepSailCapital Still boats $mcft $mbuu $onew $mbuu Still US domestic air $HA $ALGT $SNCY $JBLU EVTOLs but mind factors: $joby $achr High-mult consumer decel: $krus $duol $you $smg $coco $otly Gene bs: $dna $flgt $me Misunderstood melting ponzi: $cjt_cn $shco Revisit: $kind $opra $seat

3

2

23

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

4 months

@MadThunderdome

1

2

21

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@S_curvecap @KvetchNRelease I propose a little more originality: - how does the promotional environment taste? - if I was a number and that number was next quarter SSS would I be closer to 7% or 9%? - what’s the cadence of the cadence?

2

0

22

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@NegativeGW @MadThunderdome Boats: $mbuu $mcft $hzo $onew $bc Powersports: $pii $doo_cn LTL & express air cargo: $cjt_cn $saia $odfl US airlines: $ha $ual $sncy $algt Truck OEMs (not yet?): $pcar $alsn Backyard (too late?): $pool $swim $lesl $cook $gnrc $foxf

1

0

21

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

6 months

@ChairliftCap @thogge I agree. Pretty fun. Less politics than most jobs, somewhat more meritocratic. Variety, intellectually engaging. No manual labor. Pretty good pay against often unrealistic expectations

2

1

22

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

5 months

@nottigeranalyst @senatorcheese @bucketshopcap My bread & butter: self-sourced, hard-to-use, not mkt’d to wall st, 3p data. Then mgmt/experts to triangulate/validate conclusions - then go check yipit & hope it’s totally wrong & everyone’s offsides. That’s my ideal alt data use. Looking 4 unit econ/mix/competition not sss

3

1

22

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

7 months

@TheLAPurchaser Our maintenance capex is low, most is growth

4

0

21

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@mycroftcap @hfreflection @Alpha_Theory Did both, dif games. For an MM: playing for levered intrasector stock-selection Typical generalist SM: the sector-tilt also represents ‘selection’ alpha IMO - SM who consciously/consistently/successfully takes sector tilts (arising from bottom up work) is good stock picking

2

1

21

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

21 days

@GrandTokamak There’s arb in calling any algorithm “AI”, gets a multiple uplift. Airlines have been one of the biggest big-data users for decades. Little has changed. Airlines also love to say each year they achieved XXX millions in cost savings from YYY initiatives but never make money

1

21

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

11 months

@crazyjoedavola_ Sort by borrow availability

0

19

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@DeepSailCapital Boats: HZO, ONEW, MBUU, MCFT Reopening Tagalongs: MCG, HA, SEAT, VCSA Industrial Spec-Tech Cash-Fires: CJT CN, DM, VLD, XMTR Science Projects: LILM, JOBY Web-Ed/Reskilling: DUOL, COUR, UDMY

1

0

20

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

4 months

@atelicinvest Nobody just ‘has edge’ it’s sought/found & temporary & capacity constrained Inputs = time/labor Efficiency (alpha rtn / manhour) = pattern recognition & process & mandate/personality/capital friction Magnitude = creativity, judgment, divergent thinking Mkt isn’t efficient

2

0

20

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 months

@Molson_Hart Brazilification - but it’s less about cronyism/corruption (which aren’t new) and more about technological advancement + global competition hollowing an American middle class that enjoyed a location-premium on labor for several decades

2

0

20

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

8 months

@puppyeh1 SAVE is probably a zero standalone DOT has said they’ll block it if DOJ doesn’t Political will is very against the deals and more levers to pull than people may appreciate Don’t think the concessions to date move the needle

6

0

19

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

4 months

@puppyeh1 Dude - I never say things like this - but are you really gonna go round two on this one?

2

0

19

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

9 months

@lfg_cap 7th circle of hell reserved for companies that only give changes in WC in the K, and don’t tell u what segment or opex line the consolidated add backs came out of

1

0

18

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@DeepSailCapital Overlevered, overearning, capex or floorpan-intensive consumer cyclicals with bad data and misunderstood decrementals trading above peers w/ $cjt_cn $onew $hzo $algt $ha $sncy Medium-term: $seat $you $trup $lilm $eh $joby $kind $pkg $duol $udmy $shco

4

1

18

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

9 months

@UpslopeCapital $DUOL $POOL $MCW $TFII_CN

2

0

17

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

11 months

@DeepSailCapital Boats have imploded, not in price: $mcft $mbuu $hzo $onew US dom fwd airfares off cliff: $ha $ulcc $jblu $sncy $jblu EVTOL squeeze; $lilm $eh $joby $schr High mult/cash incinerator/decel: $you $duol $krus $otly Freighter glut: $cjt_cn, $atsg Maybe: $bfly $opk $dna $wk

2

0

18

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

7 months

@bucketshopcap Decel before breakeven against a high mult… but InVeStInG FoR GrOwtH!!! $cjt_cn $krus $bowl $mcw $duol $bfly $bros $pool $wrby

5

0

18

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@ChairliftCap Mixture - screen for text in company descriptions/notes reflecting a fad-du-jour, or metrics like steadily declining margin, -ve FCF and recent o/p and mult >1SD vs hist. For me it starts with ‘what sort of situation is getting a thoughtless bid rn’ and trying to find examples

1

0

17

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

9 months

@TheStalwart @yungmetronome How could this data possibly be remotely reliable

2

0

17

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

11 months

@marketplunger1 $vlrs - Mexican airline (ulcc) 3.5x NTM EBITDAR, >30% FCF yield, net cash x leases Durable hsd+ topline runway Pre-Covid: 15yr knife fight for MX air mkt Now: largest carrier in rational 3 plyr mkt Disloc: erngs pwr masked by FAA MX downgrade, resolves 4Q Pair it Pair it

2

17

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

11 months

@jay_21_ Consumer facing industrial The supply chain bullwhip working its way thru the value chain is the gift that keeps giving and readthroughs are not being appropriately priced, I guess everyone’s busy on AI expert calls

1

0

17

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@ChairliftCap Last year the best idea generation tool was simply going on the Robinhood app, picking the dumbest company and clicking ‘people also own’ lol

1

0

16

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@DeepSailCapital Airline Labor Losers: $HA $UAL $SKYW Boats/UTV: $MBUU $MCFT $ONEW $HZO Reopener Junk: $MCG $SEAT $VCSA $SOND Science project & scams: $LILM $EH $MULN $VUZI

0

1

15

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@MadThunderdome Get the whole pronoun basket: $YOU $ME $WE $HIMS $SHE

0

15

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

11 months

@CoorsLightCEO

1

0

16

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@AltaFoxCapital @alixpasquet A lot of the value of podshops is in the transfer of economics from Investment Team -> LP. They are Ryanair/Spirit, unbundling the alpha from the PnL and undercutting, making it up with scale and reliability. They pay labor less (fee % of alpha) adj for QOL & faster career growth

2

0

16

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

5 months

@Chariot_Invest - practical application of factor-aware model, in excel, using Bloomberg not barra. Fundamental not quant perspective - examples of truly creative primary research or alt data use. I understand why these aren’t public. But I love hearing about em

2

1

15

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@pmje73 @MadThunderdome We do a lot of work on airfares, advance purchase is off a cliff from late aug-oct and close in has weakened substantially last 3 weeks, 2nd half of airlines earnings guides should decel from strong peak (esp $ha)

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@jay_21_ @MadThunderdome No! Experiences over things! Revenge travel! Consumer balance sheet! All reopening will recover to 150% of pre-COVID and grow 3x gdp forever! Experiences over thingsssssss /s fave reopening shorts $ha $mcg $vcsa $skyw $ispo $sond

1

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

8 months

@MRatable For the best shorts, longs aren’t interested in entertaining the bear case. Value prop would be reversed

1

15

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

5 months

@nottigeranalyst 4Q result / 1Q guide IMO is the hardest season. Cause it’s all about FY guide, but it’s so early you just gotta guess what BS each management team can feasible make up, and revise later. Meanwhile, resetting the 12mo clock means msny on deck or back burner ideas are calling

0

15

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@AnnapolisOEM @EndGameWW3 Related to NORDO plane that just crashed in Virginia surely?

2

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

11 months

@SaaSletter @NimbleOpinions Story stocks still break, left-4-dead names still get a new story Process imo takes 3-6qtrs Be there for that inflection Numbers are just how u express it Numbers follow narrative

0

14

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@S_curvecap @pmje73 In the book “diary of a very bad year” the author is asked to define what his role as an investor is concisely: ‘liquidity provider’ While he’s credit guy, that lens is more and more elegant to me over time. Providing liquidity to sellers at attractive prob-wtd IRR (r/r+timing)

2

0

14

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

8 months

@WaterworldCapi1 @OnodaCapital Presented w/o comment h/t @PD13158196

2

0

14

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 months

@alixpasquet

0

2

14

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 months

@FLinvestor_ I monitor shorts by: % annualized rtn = pnl$/avg_pos_$ (Precise timing, resizing, alpha capture) Helps me optimize: - research: breadth & depth - trading: timing and sizing - sizeability (liquid & low meme/tail) - timeability (edge+conviction) - reusability (process/infra)

1

0

14

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 month

@atelicinvest I don’t need LLMs to mindlessly generate rearranged words from management presentation, the sell side does a perfectly fine job

0

14

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@IntrinsicInv @AReviewOrTwo1 The #1 rule of oligopoly is you don’t write about your oligopoly /s Maybe this or something on railroads

Boeing versus Airbus: The Inside Story of the Greatest International Competition in Business

www.amazon.com

1

2

14

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@KvetchNRelease @mrboolean01 @S_curvecap “Everytime I try to help my bearish friends see what a great company and stock your magnificent team has built, they ask me dumb questions like ‘why are they under-reserving for warranties’. What can I tell my dumb friends when they ask that?”

2

0

14

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@bucketshopcap H/T @CapitalCap1tal

0

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

11 months

@VPCapital100 @LennyIce With 5 competing peer pods in mtg, if I can make key Qs sound like minuteau nonsense it’s ideal. Ex. “r u ordering E90 planes or MAXs” “stay tuned” v “What’s pilot/flt attendant ratio of trainees?” “2:3” K, FAA regs = 1 FA / 50 seats. you’re ordering MAXs. Multiyr oversupply

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

3 months

@bucketshopcap Same as it ever was, sometimes the flavor of madness just suits us better or worse

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@viggy_krishnan @S_curvecap @Beutty @crazyjoedavola_ @JerryCap @RaisingTheBAR47 @Oliver_SGM @pmje73 @4drant My view: OUTPUT is alpha (timing, sizing, sector selection and intrasector stock selection). INPUT time/attention allocation - LT duration bets? Qtrly beat/miss pairs? Max IRR would be both, case dependent. Match personality, mandate, mkt oppty -> find optimal return on time

1

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

3 months

@bucketshopcap @PythiaR @Beutty Even 4 rote tasks, still gotta be RIGHT w/ black & white info compiling as a start. Just like 4 autonomous cars - 2% failure rate kills value prop In IB days had outsourced data-entry service, 60k/yr & guy in Bangladesh spreads ur comps, 3% of the time it was wrong. Useless

0

11

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@Beutty @portseacapital @inwoodcapital Same - I start w/ single names, approach: 1) can I size & is work reusable (won’t go mile deep on insolvent frothy hoverbike spac) 2) peerset to expand to? If so build a model considering a future template 3) potential creative+data edge for group? If so more spend/time/depth

1

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@SpecialSitsNews $HZO $ONEW - overearning, boat sales rolling, levered up, ests silly - catalyst through summer $SCHO (formerly $MCG) - decades of cash burn (accel), lotta debt, cash obligations N18M $CJT_CN - perpetually -ve FCF cargo airline at crazy mult into cycl peak, misunderstood unit econ

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@LionheartInves1 Disagree. Many ideas I agree 80/20 rule (>60min imo). But if mandate allows u to size ur conviction - def had names that mile deep - (often creative alt data sourcing/usage or FOIA) yields variant view of biz economics -> lead prints & press shorts tactically. Best alpha$/time

4

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 months

@winsteadscap In this case, it’s because of the toggle in first class to make it non refundable vs the main cabin refundable. Many corporate accounts require fully-refundable fares, so they segment the customer charge you (self-pay/leisure) $532 for First & expense-account-corp-guy $336 extra

1

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@MadThunderdome New junk buckets: Pet DTC: $bark $woof $frpt $rovr Fashion DTC: $posh $rvlv $real $ftch Industrial/RE SpecTech: $dm $smrt Web-Ed: $cour $duol $udny $nrds All the same chart, less ESG rips

4

2

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

10 months

@BucknSF What % of expert network interviewers are seeking a confirmatory box check? Popular/double-credit experts are the ones that check your box on buyside consensus

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

5 months

@JohnArnoldFndtn Matt Stoller has written alot of great stuff in this theme

Matt Stoller

@matthewstoller

5 years

1. Counterfeit capitalism is running companies not to make money but to lose money. Financiers allow this for two reasons. One, they hope long-term losses turn into market power, aka Amazon. Two, they hope a bigger fool buys at a higher valuation, aka WeWork.

11

44

160

2

1

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

8 months

@KerrisdaleCap Hint too easy - EVTOLs

1

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@1MainCapital Supports demand for accountants

1

0

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@StockJabber - CEO has alot of ‘awards’ - Founder posts on LinkedIn - Constantly resegments w/o historicals - Mgmt can’t articulate capital allocation framework - Mgmt goals are defined in peer-relative vs absolute terms - Mgmt won’t give candid evaluation of competitors

1

0

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

9 months

@viggy_krishnan @ShortSightedCap @bucketshopcap @pekwat @WaterworldCapi1 SM guys think they know their companies better. On avg they do not, nor should they imo. Being good at sector bets & skating 2 puck & big picture & baskets & quick-look its own skill snd SM can monetize that, MM can’t. The human capital isn’t that different. Incentive reactions

0

1

13

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

5 months

@UpslopeCapital It’s either that or itemize the champagne room

1

0

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@ShortSightedCap @bucketshopcap Dislocations to find & alpha to be captured horizons. Feels like many SM overestimate relative dif accurately forecasting 5yr vs 5mo. Some ideas def easier LT, if u have that duration/mandate enjoy ur luxury & do it. But open ur v_2019 models - how close was ur 2021/22 FCF? Mult?

1

0

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@PrefShares They try to do the same thing as everyone else, but better Doing something different than everyone else is easier and more effective

1

0

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 months

@kouroshshafi Yeah valuing capital intensive businesses on EBITDA(R) is silly when DAR is the primary good/service Lease capitalization assumptions also vary widely and are manipulated, there’s no perfect measure, but eps is better for airlines. Normalized fcf would be better if there was any

0

1

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@MadThunderdome @Larryjamieson_ TAM

1

0

11

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@tom_morganKCP brilliant and unique movie. One of those ‘thinky’ mindbender movies, but the best one imo. Gotta pay attention, and you’ll need to read an explanation after and will want to rewatch - not because there are holes. Also Coherence for same vibe, but simpler

Primer (2004) ⭐ 6.7 | Drama, Sci-Fi, Thriller

1h 17m | PG-13

m.imdb.com

1

0

11

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@CapitalCap1tal Summer ‘15 as an intern pounding the table on: Long VRX $250 - compoundoor Short ALGN $50 - competition short The theses did not prove out

0

10

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

1 year

@bucketshopcap On the best shorts, I find many passionate longs who won’t share any forecast / quantified view as a basis for good faith discussion. Idk if they really don’t have one at all or if they just don’t want to put nums and risk being wrong

1

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

8 months

@breadcrumbsre There’s alotta money in being table stakes

3

0

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

6 months

@valuations_ Disagree, schools shld teach shorting. What’s good for the world is ACCURATE asset prices. By this logic, just max leverage. Politician logic, the most destructive force in the world (rewards now, ignore future pain, all who disagree are evil). Unless I missed sarcasm

2

0

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

3 months

@bucketshopcap @PythiaR @Beutty Someday, I hope 2 strike balance: - Intuition: skeptical of hype theme - Process: quickly discern if hype = BS - Commercial: buy BS anyway, cuz it’s a flavor of story mkt wants Struggle w/ #3 . ‘Sherlock Syndrome’+ contrarianism. Getting btter sitting out shorts, wish I cld long

1

0

12

CrosscheckC

@CrosscheckC

2 years

@FLinvestor_ Imo the most reliable dichotomy is respect for uncertainty, experienced investors have it - which leads to process vs. outcome orientation - which leads to being able to acknowledge mistakes knowing it’s not a reflection of skill

0

12