Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland @PythiaR Twitter profile

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

2 months

Q1 2024 Portfolio: $MOB.ST $CPH.TO $GFL $CSU.TO $GEO $AEP.V $TDG $DHR $APPF $NRP $TVK.TO $ACMR $KUT.V $MXCT $CLPT CAD$ Performance vs SPY: Q1: 23.45% (13.48%) 3 year: 28.71% (14.22%) Since inception (2016): 30.1% (16.93%)

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Bezos: divorced Musk: divorced (3x) Gates: divorced Arnault: divorced Buffett: I mean... divorced without divorcing. Ellison: divorced (4x) Ortega: divorced Brin: divorced (affair) I'm sensing a trend.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

6 months

The greatest lesson I took from Munger is not about investing but about resilience. He lost his 9 year old son to cancer. He lost his eye. He lost most of his money in a divorce. His fund had 50%+ drawdowns, and yet every day, he got up over and over again to keep compounding.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Yea sex is great and all, but have you ever bought things from someone undergoing a forced liquidation?

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

25 days

I don’t think people understand actually how impressive this is from Berkshire.

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖

@MikeZaccardi

26 days

Last 20 years: S&P 500 +568% Berkshire Hathaway +554%

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Sometimes I have the urge to sell everything, stick all my money in the S&P 500 and just go live life.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

$SHOP is down 69% YTD to trade at $420. IT IS A SIGN.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 months

Man BMW keeps releasing the ugliest freaking cars known to man.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Sometimes understanding deep realities of a business can earn you significant alpha: $PTON is a fucking iPad glued to a bike. $OPEN is a home flipping business. $CVNA is a used car dealership. $SHOP is just Canadian $WIX. Crypto is a ponzi scheme.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

In all seriousness, I don't know how you can look at the results from $MSFT $AAPL $GOOG and soon to be $FB and $AMZN (although the last is a big ?) and conclude that indices with big weightings in these companies are somehow going to "mean revert" 30/40/50% lower.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

h/t locked account but this is the best thing I've read maybe ever.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 months

Step 1: be an egg.

Michael Houck 💡

@callmehouck

2 months

This is Marc Andreessen. He created the first popular internet browser. Now he invests billions in startups at his VC firm, a16z. Here's his 9-step guide on how to build a startup:

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 months

This one attribute is also shared by most investors you’ve never heard of that zeroed.

The AI Investor

@The_AI_Investor

3 months

"If you look at all the great investors that are as different as Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, Ken Langone, they tend to be very, very concentrated bets. They see something, they bet it, and they bet the ranch on it." Druckenmiller made a big bet on NVDA

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

23 days

Dying because you worked 140 hours a week is not a “communication issue”. Employees have limited power against their corporation, their MD, their VPs etc. It is 100% the duty of the employer and the higher ups to ensure they are not working people to death.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

10 months

“A Rolex isn’t a flex if it tells you your lunch break is over.”

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Bitcoin is worth $0. There. I said it.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

11 months

Not gonna lie if the US military/CIA pulled an accounting trick to find $6.2 billion to pay to a mercenary group to overthrow one of the most powerful dictators in the world, that is a conspiracy theory to be damn proud of as an American.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

CEOs being like “it’s now about cash flow” when it was always about cash flow.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

9 months

@chamath @wmcintyre84 @tiltwave Which ones have worked dude? $open is down 90% $clov is down 90% $space is down 75% $sofi is down 22% You’ve blamed the fed, you’ve blamed investors, but you’ve never blamed yourself for structuring shitty deals. Well, not shitty for you of course.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Rip FAANG. We’re down to GAA(!), which is coincidentally the sound $fb and $nflx shareholders make when they see their brokerage statements.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

You know $fb is a value trap because everyone is focusing on how cheap it is not how great a business it is.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Me hanging out with anyone not in finance

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Imagine how much fintwit would lose its mind if we had like a slow burn 2 or 3 year bear market

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

9 months

Whatever it was @chamath did from 2020-2022.

Fascinating

@fasc1nate

9 months

What's something legal but totally unethical?

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

9 months

The top 10%ile income in Canada is around $175k. With that income and $100k saved you can afford a home priced a little under $700k. The average house price in Canada is $760k. So a top 10% earner with a sizeable savings cannot afford the AVERAGE house in this country.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

1 year

Amazing how almost every capitalist turns into a socialist when they lose a fuck ton of money.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

4 years

The best investor under 30 is probably the one too humble to appear on a podcast because he recognizes he doesn't know anything yet.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

4 years

Taxes 1: $MSFT - tax on computing $V/ $MA - tax on consumption $VRSN - tax on the internet $ICE, $CME $CBOE $MXTX - tax on the concept of a market $MASI - tax on sickness $ADBE - tax on digital creativity $MSCI / $SPGI - tax on passive investing $MCO $SPGI - tax on corp. debt

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

1 year

One of the reasons you know Bernard Arnault is the real deal is his middle son posted this on Instagram at age 23. $lvmuy $brk

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

4 years

I'm seeing a lot of "2020 is the worst year ever" comments. I can think of a few, somewhere around 1939-1946 that might have been worse for a lot of people. Toughen up.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Markets: -1% from highs. Investors: *motivational investing quotes about buying when other people are fearful/remaining calm during crashes*

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

This is a $GOOG model from 2010. Today, Google generates ~2x the FCF modelled while still growing in the teens vs. a terminal multiple of 10x FCF applied in 2020. This is how you alpha. As a long-term investor.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 months

She literally believes god told her to start ARK. That is why it’s called ARK. She is literally schizophrenic. Why anyone listens to her crazy religious fundamentalist nutjobism is beyond me. She is not a sane woman.

amit

@amitisinvesting

2 months

CATHIE WOOD ON CNBC JUST NOW: Host: Where do you see $TSLA Tesla stock in 5 years? Cathie Wood: $2000. That would put Tesla at about a $5T marketcap in 5 years.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

4 years

As of today, I've liquidated everything and gone all to cash. I figured I'm too stupid to have done so well this year and needed to reset and regroup.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

$FB achieved their first $1 trillion 17 years after founding. I believe that is the record. Google took ~22 years, Amazon took 26 years, Microsoft took 33 years, Apple took 42. Can we all agree that Zuck is the damn GOAT yet?

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

1 year

The CFA is a bit like a tattoo, it hurts like a bitch while you’re doing it, and afterwards you’re proud you went through the pain but eventually you begin to question why and question whether you want to get it removed (stop paying the dues).

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

So, if you think AWS is worth 20x EBITDA, or ~38x earnings (operating income less 17% tax), you are getting retail, a business that demonstrably does have a positive value, for free today. $AMZN

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

9 months

If you get rich with grift and blood money, there is no amount of substance that can repair the sucking wound in your soul. He knows what he did, gets called out for it publicly all the time, and has to live with that the rest of his life.

Masa Capital

@MasaSonCap

9 months

Is this true All-In Pod fans?

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

1 year

ChatGPT = Clubhouse Time stamp it.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Growth has trashed "value" for a decade. That just means that growth was actually value, and value was just shit.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Starting with $100k at say age 30, saving $50k/year and compounding at 12% (which is not easy!), you'd have almost $10 million in 25 years. I figure that's enough to retire. But nobody tryna get rich slow no mo'

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

18 days

Comparing Buffett to Simons is like comparing Jordan to Woods. They were playing different sports.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

"Get the fuck out, right now. Sell it all." - Warren Buffet

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Becoming increasingly convinced that the biggest struggle in investing is not investing, it's watching people get rich gambling and not wanting to FOMO YOLO.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

We won't bottom until Ackman cries on national television.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

4 years

Value investors: idiot investors will pay anything for stocks! Growth investors: idiot investors will buy any crap if it's crappy enough! Macro investors: markets are crazy, bubbles everywhere. Actual investors: dude I just look at individual situations and try to make money.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

28 days

This sentence does not mean anything. One reason to read lots of transcripts is you find 95% of CEOs talk like this. They use jargon because they have not thought deeply about anything; they don’t know how to create value. People who cannot explain a complex subject simply

CNBC

@CNBC

28 days

“The thing we didn’t do enough of is really attack the occasional customer with delivering and communicating value to them in a more aggressive manner,” said Starbucks CEO Laxman Narasimhan, speaking on the chain’s declining market share in the U.S.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

8 months

My employer (big 6 Canadian bank) mandating 4 days a week back in the office.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Don't worry Bitcoin longs I'm sure the blockchain is doing some really good share buybacks right now with all the free cash flow it generates.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

1 month

Boomer PMs buying Google now that it has a dividend

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

1 year

$FRC, a best in breed company who built an incredible customer service machine with fantastic customer retention and market share gains, run by an honest management team is now up only 7% from their IPO 13 years ago.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

4 years

$aapl P/E this time last year: 13x. $aapl P/E today: 26x. Same company guys. It's the same company.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

6 months

Pershing Square holdings v.s S&P 500 since inception.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Congrats to the $baba bulls who bottom ticked it yesterday. So sorry to the $baba bulls who tried to bottom tick it a week ago, and a week before that, and a few days before that, and some time before that, and a while before that and…

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

4 years

The market has crashed on every vacation I have been on for the last 4 years. I'm going on vacation next week. You've been warned.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

$msft $googl $gfl $spgi $mco $tdg $csu.to $Che equal weight go to sleep for 10 years. That probably outperforms 90% of the people doing deep DD and trying to guess semi-meaningless business minutae.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Tiger Global is a *hedge* fund. Where were the hedges?

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

1 year

Anyone who has worked in finance longer than 5 minutes knows you can torture numbers to tell whatever story you want. In fact, thinking that you don’t buy stories but buy numbers IS a story you tell yourself to feel better about the fact you probably buy stories.

Orlando Bravo

@OrlandoBravoTB

1 year

Fundamental investors don’t buy stories — they buy numbers.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

8 months

The reduced gravitational pull from fewer fat people on Ozempic will cause the moon to leave earths orbit, the atmosphere to dissipate, and all life on earth to end.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

I love how crypto is basically straight up admitting it's a Ponzi scheme now. Clever reframing from "it's not a Ponzi scheme" to "so what if it is, Ponzi schemes are the future of money and actually not bad."

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Nick Sleep on why people "missed" Costco. Still see a LOT of these heuristics applied today.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Literally you can buy $GOOGL for 20x earnings today. It's just sitting there, right in front of you.

William Green

@WilliamGreen72

3 years

Howard Marks: “We’re in an asset bubble. It’s everything. It’s not particular to high-yield bonds or bonds or stocks. It’s real estate, it’s private equity, it’s everything...How do you make a decent return in a low return world? The answer is: it’s hard.”

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

1 year

Proof that idiots can get a CFA.

Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA

@GRDecter

1 year

Meta announced a $40 billion share buyback program for this year But they only have $40.74 billion cash on hand 🤔

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

4 years

Analyst: Can you guys tell me what free cash flow will be next quarter? Company: well, free cash flow is the cash left over after we've paid all expenses, and next quarter will be April to June 30th. Analyst: alright, that's helpful, thanks.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

5 months

I see portfolios like this so often and I want to puke every time. This is the portfolio of a salesman (robot), not an investment professional.

Mark Meredith, CFP®️

@MarkTMeredith

5 months

How one Ameriprise advisor invests $58,000.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 months

The bcom/b school-> banking -> investing route often produces good but not great investors because the entire culture of b school -> banking is all about fitting in and thinking like all the other suits. The best investors are more like artists.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

$CLOV -56% $CVS +44% from when @chamath was too chicken to take @Post_Market 's bet.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

6 months

The ability to go through shit and get up and keep moving forward is the greatest ability you can have, particularly if you can do it cheerfully. Being smart, talented, well connected helps. But it all means nothing if you don’t get back up after life knocks you down.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 months

Druck understands a fundamental truth: Being long winners is how you win. You can get spicy shorting losers and doing macro, but over time, most of your money will come from winners winning.

Brandon Beylo

@marketplunger1

3 months

Stanley Druckenmiller’s latest 13F just goes to show how much of a GOAT he is. The dude preached recession and a hard landing. But still somehow owned both $NVDA and $LLY in size. And killed it. We are not worthy. 🐐

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

25 days

Buffett didn’t have Twitter. If you curate it right, it’s the equivalent of having a bunch of people reading 20,000 pages and telling you the exciting things they found. You just need to follow people who are good at finding the gems.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Very sad to see with only 25%+ revenue growth that $V and $ma are clearly being disrupted by fintech.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

You could buy $AMC for 5.5x 2022E sales or $GOOGL for 5.5x. You pick.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

$MSFT at $280 3 months ago: I'M FUCKIN RICH! $MSFT at $280 now: I'M FUCKIN POOR!

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

14 days

Invert: Google did $75b of net income and is the most unserious place. That should tell you something.

ben

@benhylak

15 days

i interned at google, and it was the most unserious place i've ever worked. full grown adults playing in ball pits, going down slides, and sneaking their family of 10 in to get free dinner.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

This is the funniest reply in the history of Twitter.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

10 days

Look, the guy was probably the head of macro. We can know this because: Only a head of macro would be so stupid as to blow up their career publicly having a petty argument with a billionaire.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

@BearForce_Won @Kartiktweet @rabois @John_Hempton @HighyieldHarry It walks like a duck and quacks like a duck and smells like a duck and has duck written on it and everyone thinks it’s a duck but actually it’s an integrated platform that improves the consumer homebuying experience and is for sure not a duck.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

1 year

To figure out what $Nvda is worth we simply take the $4b revenue beat, annualize it, assume 100% incremental margins, and apply 100x earnings to the multiple and that’s how the stock is up 20% AH. Easy.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

I’m sorry but if you’re bragging that you’re GROSS MARGIN profitable you’re a clown. That’s literally the bare minimum for a business.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Buy good companies, don't overpay, do nothing.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

New York people, what is the hands down best restaurant in the city, price no object.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Your annual reminder that Elon Musk's dad had a kid with his step daughter. No one should be shocked Elon has had a turbulent romantic life.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

$V does $11 in FCF/share in 2024, 4% FCF yield = $275 stock. Generates $25/share in cash between now and then. Gets you ~14% CAGR from here over the next 3 years. Literally just sitting there in plain sight.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

Every vacation I've taken for the past 6 years has seen a 5%+ correction. I'm on vacation next week.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

I've seen every theory on $fb tweeted out over the last 2 days except 1: I was wrong.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

$mtch is a 5 year double send tweet. $iac is also cheap. $now is getting there. With a 5 in front I think it's close to a 5 year double. $adsk is cheap (wc and SBC stans sit the fuck down) $v/ $ma are inexpensive $pypl probably works as a trade. If we hit $140 on $dis get long.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

"What if we get inflation and multiples revert!" $GOOGL: bro we trade at 20x core earnings and are growing like 15% a year, what the fuck are you tripping on.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

"I have not seen this level of demand for automation technology to improve productivity because in an inflationary environment the only deflationary force is software" - Satya Nadella $MSFT

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Wow I just noticed $TSLA is down 31% YTD. Good.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

Me: buy good companies, don't overpay, do nothing. Also me: down 4,690,420% YTD.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

First date in 6 years tonight. Thanks $mtch.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

A reminder that Mark Zuckerberg is 37.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 months

Off the grid billionaire #4 found. Turned single digit million into a billion in stocks through a number of multibaggers.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

2 years

The number of FAANG is a bubble @ 30x earnings, tech is dead, inflation is back, we're all doomed takes I'm seeing makes me want to get balls long FAANG.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

3 years

We were promised flying cars and instead we got degenerate gambling in imaginary currency.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

9 months

This is what happens when you win and stop instead of grinding for more money you don’t need for the sake of your ego.

Sleepwell🛌

@SleepwellCap

9 months

Ed Thorpe is 91 years, yet he looks like he’s in his 60s. To paraphrase @FoundersPodcast , this guy has mastered life across all aspects.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

4 years

Joel almost explains it right, I think. You want the highest roic x the most reinvestment possible, and you want to buy it to as close to the value of invested capital (or below) as possible. That's all investing is.

Brandon Beylo

@marketplunger1

4 years

Joel Greenblatt on ROIC vs. ROE

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

8 months

The reason you teach history in school Is to sear into everyone’s mind The veneer of civilization is thin

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

28 days

This is a perfect example of the luxury of doing a PhD in nonsense with zero societal value that capitalism affords us. Praise be to Smith.

StopAntisemitism

@StopAntisemites

29 days

@TPostMillennial Meet Johannah King-Slutzky, a graduate student at Columbia.

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Pythia Capital, Baron of Svampland

@PythiaR

5 months

I come back to this idea: Own $pgr, it’s better than Geico Own $tdg it’s better than Precision Own $cp it’s better than BNS Own $pep it’s better than KO Own $jpm it’s better than WFC/BAC Own $msft its better than Apple Own $cnq its better than Oxy Own $v its better than Amex

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