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More and more people are getting Nvidia now and if you are the only few who still think it's a hardware chip company, watch this. The best 90 seconds one could spend. $NVDA
Fun fact: Nvidia is projected to sell ~2M of H100s in '24, close to the # of cars Tesla would sell in the same year.
Nvidia sells a H100 for ~$30k-$40k with GP of ~$21k-$28k.
Tesla sells a car for ~$46k with GP of ~$9k.
The crazy part about Nvidia gross margin: Nvidia
Fun fact: Nvidia is projected to sell ~2M of H100s in '24, close to the # of cars Tesla would sell.
Nvidia sells a H100 for ~$30k-$40k with GP of ~$21k-$28k.
Tesla sells a car for ~$46k with GP of ~$9k.
The crazy part: Nvidia doesn't even manufacture the chip.
$TSLA $NVDA
Listen to Jensen talking about competitors selling cheaper chips: even when the competitor's chips are offered for free, it's still not cheap enough. $NVDA
Tesla vs Apple
✔️ Forward PE
+ Tesla: ~24
+ Apple: ~22
✔️ Free cash flow yield
+ Tesla: ~5
+ Apple: ~5
✔️ Next 5y growth (per annum):
+ Tesla: ~40%
+ Apple: ~8.73%
Based on my own estimate. $TSLA $AAPL
Nvidia $NVDA CEO Jensen Huang:
Generative AI is the single most significant platform transition in computing history. In the last 40 years, nothing has been this big. It’s bigger than PC, it’s bigger than mobile, and it’s gonna be bigger than the internet, by far.”
AMD $AMD
- Almost all data centers around the world will, over time, be powered by AI instead of conventional CPUs.
- Compute coming online is increasing 10x every 6 months.
Elon Musk on NVDA,
@elonmusk
Tesla's CEO Elon Musk:
•All data centers will be AI centers. Over time, AI and neural networks will account for 80-90% of energy usage.
•There is also a shortage of Infiniband networking.
AMD's CEO Lisa Su:
•The AI infrastructure opportunity is expected to grow at a 70%
Compare $NVDA vs $AMD from the last reported quarter:
- R&D: $2.3B vs $1.5B
- Net profit: $9.2B vs 0.6B
$NVDA market cap is 5x of $AMD, but net profit was 15x, while r&d cost was only 1.5x higher. Nvidia is insane.
If we wait until the next earnings the difference may even be
Jensen Huang on digital biology: ‘It’s the next revolution. It’s going to be flat-out one of the biggest ones ever. And Nvidia is at the center of it.’ $NVDA
Digital biology, also known as computational biology, refers to the use of data-intensive computational methods to
"If AI is as big as I think it is Nvidia is something we are going to want to earn it for at least 2 to 3 years, and maybe longer".
- Stanley Druckenmiller.
$NVDA is the largest holding in Stanley Druckenmiller fund, making up 17.4% of the portfolio.
Am I the only one here talking about Nvidia? Feeling a bit lonely. Why is it that only Tesla has a 'community'?
Nvidia's investors, raise your hands and join the party! 🚀🎉
"If you look at all the great investors that are as different as Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn, Ken Langone, they tend to be very, very concentrated bets. They see something, they bet it, and they bet the ranch on it."
Druckenmiller made a big bet on NVDA
Jensen Huang: $1 trillion will be spent over 4 years upgrading data centers for Al.
Lisa Su: $400 billion market for AI chips in 2027.
Sam Altman: oh no wait you old people, we need way more than that, we believe the world needs more ai infrastructure--fab capacity, energy,
According to IOC Analytics, Nvidia holds a 92% market share in data center GPUs.
If Lisa Su is correct, the market could be as large as $400B by 2027. Assuming Nvidia retains a market share of only 70%, with fierce competition from all sides, Nvidia would generate approximately
Jensen talking about his only job in the past 30+ years: creating technologies and markets.
This is why Nvidia has a near-monopoly in almost everything they do.
If you ever feel bad about your trading, just remember someone sold $TSLA at $102 on Jan 6, 2023, only to watch it rise 60% to $172 in exactly 3 weeks.
In 2014, a decade ago:
- Buffett's Berkshire had ~$50B in cash.
- $NVDA market cap was ~$10B
- $TSLA market cap was ~$28B
Fast forward to 2024:
- Buffett's Berkshire had ~$167B in cash.
- $NVDA market cap is $1.97T
- $TSLA market cap is $611B
Buffett actually missed out
Reuters reports that Nvidia (NVDA) is launching a new division aimed at designing custom-made chips for cloud computing entities and other sectors, including AI processors. This is about $30B market in 2023 and a part of $400B AI chip market that Lisa Su of AMD projected.
It's
Jensen chooses to do what has never been done before, and Nvidia will be valued as never before.
$NVDA has the potential to become the largest company on earth someday.
GPUs is considerably harder to get than drugs.
To train a model, probably a GPT-5 size, it wouldn't be surprising if they used at least 30,000 to 50,000 H100s, which are the latest technology from Nvidia. Additionally, you need to run inference as well.
Listen to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang explaining why all countries must develop sovereign AI infrastructure.
Now, just imagine what that would do to $NVDA.
Did Jensen just double his prediction, now estimating that $2 trillion worth of data centers will be accelerated in the next 4 to 5 years, instead of the initial $1 trillion?
I guess
@sama
was right then. $NVDA
Jensen Huang wanted to acquire $ARM for $40B; everyone thought it was crazy. Now, $ARM is worth 3x that value, listen to Jensen talking about his vision:
"The vision is this: I mean, we want to build a computing company for the age of AI. If you think about it, if you think
If you think Nvidia got to where it is now by luck, watch this.
It was GTC 2015. Jensen Huang foresaw the future of deep learning since AlexNet (2012) and bet the future of Nvidia on it. $NVDA $TSLA
@elonmusk
BoA raised NVDA price target to $1100 ahead of GTC.
"Opportunity to re-architect nearly $1-$2Tn of global computing infrastructure with accelerators, resulting in a $250-$500b annual market (vs $250bn prior) over the next 3-5 years."
Forward PE:
- Tesla: 42
- Nvidia: 63
With EV, Energy Storage at the beginning of the S-curves while AI, FSD, and Tesla Bot are not even factored in, I don't understand why Tesla is cheaper than Nvidia. $TSLA $NVDA
Saudi Arabia accelerates digital economy growth through Nvidia partnership.
Jensen Huang isn't just a typical tech CEO anymore. With countries competing to establish AI compute infrastructure for national sovereignty, his role and influence have expanded significantly. $NVDA
There is only one $1T+ market cap company in the world which is still run by the founder, for 30+ years.
It's NVIDIA and its founder and CEO - Jensen Huang.
Key components of Huang's leadership style that have been driving NVDA towards success.
1. Strong desire to win,
There are approximately 8,000 data centers in the world.
Assuming each of them would purchase an initial 16,000 Nvidia GPUs (H100, GH200, or higher)...
Nvidia would sell a total of 128 million GPUs initially (not including expansion and upgrades).
Nvidia sold approximately
Indian data center operator Yotta is planning to purchase 16,000 H100 and GH200 GPUs from Nvidia $NVDA by Q1 2025.
Yotta's total order book with Nvidia has now reached $1B, after the company ordered 16,000 H100s in 2023.
It took Nvidia decades and billions of dollars with a lot of pain and suffering to build the CUDA computing platform.
Developers can write software that runs seamlessly on any Nvidia's chips. $NVDA
- Jensen Huang
$NVDA: the stock may appear like a bubble when considering its historical price trajectory.
However, it is actually in the process of aligning with its underlying fundamentals.
As a big fan of Elon Musk and Tesla, I've been closely following Tesla's AI progress. A defining moment last year was when Elon said he was still buying as many H100s as possible, indicating that Tesla is constrained by computing power.
I tried to decode what this means and
Elon on AI constraints: last year it was chip supply; this year, 2024, it’s electric transformers; in 2-3 years, it will be electricity.
Here is what Elon has been saying about Nvidia & AI compute in the past year or so. $NVDA
AI compute coming online is increasing by 10x every 6 months, or 100x every 1 year. If Elon is right, the demand for NVDA will be much stronger than even the bulls like me imagined.
$NVDA is at ~50% of $MSFT & $AAPL, and 2x that of $TSLA.
Long term, I think $NVDA could become the most valuable company on Earth. If Tesla can deliver FSD/Optimus, Tesla will overtake Nvidia for the first spot.
However, $AAPL and $MSFT deserve to be the current top two, no
👑 Microsoft overtakes Apple!
🌎 Largest companies by market cap:
1️⃣ $MSFT
2️⃣ $AAPL
3️⃣ $ARAMCO
4️⃣ $GOOG
5️⃣ $AMZN
6️⃣ $NVDA
7️⃣ $META
8️⃣ $BRK
9️⃣ $TSLA
🔟 $LLY
Who will lead the pack by the end of 2024?
Share your predictions! ⬇️
Some of the organizations expected to adopt Blackwell: Amazon Web Services, Dell Technologies, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, Tesla and xAI.
Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google: “Scaling services like Search and Gmail to billions of users has taught us a lot
Nvidia keeps beating and raising in the past 3 quarters, and the price is now just keeping up.
The biggest mid-term catalyst for Nvidia is that the demand is sustainable past 2025 (FY2026), which would blow the current 18.86% growth estimate out of the water.
If we are still
AI is data center problem, in future, data centers will be running mostly neural nets.
Jensen Huang explained how Nvidia solved the AI data center problem and created a flywheel effect. $nvda
- Microsoft plans to double its inventory of GPUs to 1.8 million, primarily sourced from NVIDIA.
- Microsoft plans to invest USD 100 billion in GPUs and data centers by 2027
Source: Business Insider
A typical car company:
- may make engines
- most parts, software made by suppliers
- dealerships do sales & services
-> mainly assembling
$TSLA: the above, and
- electric powertrains
- battery packs
- super charge network (= gas station)
- Tesla OS software
- AI chip
- FSD
"We're in the very first inning, maybe the batter's box, on AI" $NVDA
(Nvidia) is of course going to be $2, $3T.
- Adam Parker, Trivariate Research CEO
The global GPU market is projected to reach USD $773 billion by 2032, up from USD 42.2 billion in 2022, with a CAGR of 33.8% from 2023 to 2032.
This growth is driven by technological advancements such as 3D designs, AI, VR, and AR, as well as the proliferation of gaming
Over the past 10 years:
- Nvidia has advanced computing and AI by 1 million times.
- NVDA stock has risen 158 times.
The stock is still underperforming compared to the rate of innovation.
$ARM is up 21% after hours, emerging as another winner in the AI silicon space.
Note that $NVDA is developing Arm-based chips for various applications, from data centers to PCs:
- NVIDIA Grace Hopper™ Superchip
- NVIDIA PC chips (rumored)
Elon essentially admitted that he doesn’t have enough motivation to make Tesla the leader in AI, something we always assumed.
It’s quite likely that the ‘Tesla is an AI company’ notion won’t materialize since Elon would rather grow a business of his own like xAI where he has
Besides Jensen, Elon would know the most about AI infrastructure.
This is what Elon has been saying about GPU compute in the last one year.
@elonmusk
$NVDA
2024 is going to be a huge year for AI and scaling capacity to meet demand is still Nvidia's greatest challenge.
- We are all going to participate in this new era of computing, and we're right at the beginning of it. Last year marked the beginning, and this year is going to be
Is there any company that can compete with Nvidia in just 3 out of the following 5 moats? $NVDA
👨🔬 Jensen Huang
🎮 Superior GPU design
🔗 chip-to-chip, server-to-server, rack-to-rack networking
💡 CUDA & software libraries
👩💻 4M+ developers
NVDA poses a significant threat to any company involved in DIY AI, including Tesla.
Nvidia's computing platforms have the capability to serve and accelerate virtually every AI and robotics company.
Nvidia is the company that not only creates but also defines new markets, while others merely attempt to gain market share. $NVDA
This distinction arises from Jensen's strategic focus:
✅ New
✅ Great impact
✅ Incredibly hard
✅ Destined to do
We have been talking a lot about Tesla’s Full Self-Driving, but what’s the difference between Tesla FSD and Nvidia’s Self-Driving Platform?
Nvidia’s strategy is not just to build self-driving cars, but to enable the entire world to make anything that moves fully autonomous.
The
Oracle: we expect to have some very nice joint announcements with Nvidia next week.
Oracle signed another big Generation 2 cloud infrastructure contract with Nvidia in Q3. Oracle's Gen2 AI infrastructure business is booming. That's become pretty clear to everybody. $NVDA $ORCL
Nvidia is projected to sell ~2M of H100s in '24, close to the # of cars Tesla would sell.
Nvidia sells a H100 for ~$30k-$40k with GP of ~$21k-$28k.
Tesla sells a car for ~$46k with GP of ~$9k (latest numbers could be lower)
Now with assumption that Tesla can sell FSD for
Fun fact: Nvidia is projected to sell ~2M of H100s in '24, close to the # of cars Tesla would sell.
Nvidia sells a H100 for ~$30k-$40k with GP of ~$21k-$28k.
Tesla sells a car for ~$46k with GP of ~$9k.
The crazy part: Nvidia doesn't even manufacture the chip.
$TSLA $NVDA
Nvidia - another day, another raise
Morgan Stanley raised $NVDA price target from $603 to $750 per share.
- Surge in AI demand
- Analysts highlight strong near-term growth and dismiss second-derivative anxieties.
- Short-term data points indicate robust results for the next
This is what $NVDA valuation metrics look like in 1 year if the price is the same ($739).
- PE: 35
- Forward PE: 28.5
- PEG: 0.5
- P/S: 19
- Forward P/S: 15.7
- Next year growth rate: 23.78%
Call this a bubble if you want. Data from
@KoyfinCharts
$NVDA just closed above $700, congrats to all Nvidia shareholders 🍻, especially the people who had the conviction to go all in.
Maybe someone knew something before earnings that we don't?
This is the 3 year history of $NVDA price change after earnings date.
Compare $NVDA vs $AMD from the last reported quarter:
- R&D: $2.5B vs $1.5B
- Net profit: $12.3B vs 0.6B
$NVDA's market cap is 6.9x that of $AMD, yet its net profit was 20x higher, while R&D costs were only 1.67x higher. Nvidia's leverage is astounding.
Pictures from
Sam talked about (AI) compute, it makes a lot of sense.
@sama
Demand for NVDA will be insane and we can't even imagine it. I wrote about it recently on Patreon as well.
Warren Buffett suggests that in your lifetime, you should only swing at a couple of dozen pitches.
It took me a long time to learn and understand his wisdom. That's why I took a swing at Nvidia's GenAI opportunity and made a huge bet. $NVDA
In 6 weeks Jensen is going to tell everybody about the next generation of AI that Nvidia is working on.
Anyone excited?
GTC 2024 Keynote, by Jensen Huang, Founder and CEO of Nvidia.
Monday, March 18 | 1–3 p.m. PT
DELL surged by 20% to $112.95 AH following its earnings report, signaling particularly bullish prospects for AI data centers.
Orders saw an almost 40% sequential increase, with the backlog nearly doubling, reaching $2.9 billion.
This should be bullish for $NVDA & $AMD.
Dell
$NVDA has been up for 9 consecutive weeks, and despite today's drop, it remains up 82% year-to-date.
If bears keep calling the top every day, someday it might happen, and they will be genius.
Nvidia's H100 AI servers in 2024
- Meta was expected to purchase at 40k AI servers, or 320k H100s if used 8-H100 HGX server, this seems close to what Zuck mentioned of ~350k additional H100s in 2024.
- Microsoft was expected to purchase ~80k–100k AI servers; 640k -> 800k H100s.
"NVIDIA will match and overtake Apple soon. The moat of H100, cuda, tensor rt is bigger than iPhone and AppStore." $NVDA
- Aravind Srinivas, CEO of
@perplexity_ai
Understanding Nvidia's CUDA moat isn't easy. Think of it like your Tesla improving with each software update.
Listen to Jensen explaining Nvidia's decades of investments to the CUDA computing platform. $NVDA
“For the very first time, because of generative AI, computer technology is going to impact literally every single industry and every single country,"
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, $NVDA