Sleepwell🛌 @SleepwellCap Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Sleepwell🛌

@SleepwellCap

21,831

Followers

615

Following

1,407

Media

13,078

Statuses

Looking for investments to sleep well. Mostly Music, Tech, Financials & Luxury. Musician and engineer. Opinions my own, please see disclaimers on Substack.

Probably traveling

https://t.co/e05MpOQcDc

Joined November 2020

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

1 year

I'm back! New piece published. Rolex is counterintuitively one of the best known brands in the world, but one of the least known businesses. It can teach us what it takes to be a true luxury brand. This was incredibly fun to research. I hope you enjoy!

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How Rolex Exemplifies a True Luxury Brand Like No Other

sleepwell.substack.com

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Last Seen Profiles

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

A big part of becoming a better investor is not very intuitive: Studying non-investing related fields like psychology, history, physics, complex adaptive systems, non-linearity, probability and statistics. Here are my 10 favorite non-investing investing books📚 Thread 🧵👇

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

@SahilBloom Starbucks writing the names of millions of people in wrong and funny ways to get them to post their cups in all of Social Media. For Free.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

8 months

Ed Thorpe is 91 years, yet he looks like he’s in his 60s. To paraphrase @FoundersPodcast , this guy has mastered life across all aspects.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

7 months

Investor type based on the watch you wear: Seiko: Value Grand Seiko: GARP Tudor: Quality Rolex: Compounder Bro Casio: Deep value Apple Watch: just buys tech Audemars Piguet: 13F copycat Patek Philippe: never sell Hublot: Meme stonk Richard Mille: YOLO

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Two years ago from today, I left JPMorgan and emailed Jamie on my last day. Haters will say it was his secretary responding, but my gut says it’s legit😅

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

• Death • Taxes • Chamath disappearing from Twitter when his portfolio is down

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

$GOOG Services segment operating margin: 36% $LVMH Fashion & Leather Goods segment operating margin: 41%

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Buffett originally offered $850 for $Y but said he wouldn't pay a dime to Investment Bankers; so the final price subtracts Goldman's $27mm fee (who advised Alleghany) to result in a $848.02 price per share for shareholders.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Sell-Side Equity Research gets its fair share of criticism from investors, but it’s also a good training ground where you can learn about the investment process and become a better investor. Here are 10 things I learned during my time on the sell-side 👇🧵

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

6 months

@buccocapital Would love to see him singing Hurt by Nine Inch Nails

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Which private companies would you consider buying if they were public? For me Chick-fil-A, Trader Joe’s and Patagonia.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

7 months

Todd Combs mentioned 4 books in The Art of Investing podcast, all seem worthwhile: -Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World -Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk -Just Six Numbers: The Deep Forces That Shape The Universe -Ubiquity: Why Catastrophes Happen

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Wait… wh……wha… …what…?????

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Sleepwell🛌

1 year

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Dear NYTimes: You still underestimate my ability to click ctrl+A➡️ctrl+C in under 20 milliseconds.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Lots of debate around the Labels vs. $SPOT narrative in the last two days with UMG news. Also a lot of misunderstandings. Long thread with my views and clarifications Let’s go 💽👇🏽🎶

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

7 months

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@DeItaone

*Walter Bloomberg

7 months

🔸KASHKARI: I PUT A 40% PROBABILITY ON A SCENARIO WHERE FED WILL HAVE TO RAISE RATES SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TO BEAT INFLATION

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

7 months

Men only want one thing:

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Why doesn’t YouTube allow all of its users to listen to videos with the app closed/phone locked? It would instantly become the biggest audio company in the world (2.1B+ users) and change its consumer habits. If they were serious about audio, they would have done this already.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Make this guy Fed Chairman right now

@Billyhottakes

Billcotterforcongress.com

2 years

Mountain Climber Fights Off Bear (2022)

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

$AMZN tried to launch in Mexico without using $GOOG ads, as an experiment. It didn’t work and they quickly caved.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

7 months

-So what’s your edge? -I’m from Latin America so I avoid Latam stocks

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

$NFLX 10-K came out and I can finally update this chart. Produced content assets are now 55% vs 45% last year and 13% 5 yrs ago. This is content where they own the IP. Licensed includes Netflix Originals made by other studios, which are exclusive but they don’t own, and re-runs

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Berkshire’s $AAPL position now a 5X; worth $155B or 24% of $BRK market cap.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

@ParikPatelCFA The @mjmauboussin Papers. My favorites are: 1) Managing the Man Overboard Moment 2) Calculating ROIC 3) What does Price-to-Earnings mean? 4) Measuring the Moat 5) Reflections on the 10 Attributes of Great Investors 6) Sharpening Your Forecasting Skills

Michael Mauboussin/Credit Suisse Research Papers - The Big Picture

10/20/15 What’s Going On in Your Brain? Common Investor Biases and Where They Come From We examine four situations where individuals make poor choices and review the research to show where the brain...

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

10 months

Peloton paid more royalties to the music industry than TikTok in 2022 ($267m vs $220m) according to Goldman Sachs

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Hello Twitter👋 I deeply believe in the power of this platform so I’m asking for your help Looking for opportunities on the buyside—here’s my anonymous CV📜 I’d greatly appreciate if you can share or pass along to whoever comes to mind and hopefully I can payback in some way 🙏🏼

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

You guys like to call Warren and Charlie “outdated” but they have been working remotely since 1959.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

This Bezos quote about $AMZN also applies to investing: “If everything you do needs to work on a 3-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a 7-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people”

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Some pretty unbelievable places I’ve been to these past few days road-tripping in Northern Spain. Saludos a todos🤟🏼

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

25 days

One big takeaway of this slide is how weak LVMH’s watch portfolio is, which must be driving Arnault crazy. Probably the only vertical where they don’t own any real luxury businesses.

@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

25 days

Luxury Watch Brands by ownership source: $WOSG.LN

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Serious question… where did all the web3 people go?

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

1 year

I had no idea L'Oreal $OR had a Loyalty Share Program Shareholders can register shares under their name, hold them for 2 years and get a 10% higher dividend (6.60 vs 6.0) It's supposed to incentivize long-term ownership. Any other companies that do this?

Loyalty Bonus and Registered Shares

Consult your account on planetshares.uptevia.pro.fr Become a registered shareholder and receive a loyalty bonus of +10%. A preferential dividend: €6.601 instead of €6.002.

www.loreal-finance.com

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Had no idea that $NFLX had an $AMZN AWS pitch on their 10-K

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

11 months

$UHAL CEO just laughed at loud when an Analyst asked him about April and May trends.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

$GOOG growing top-line 15-20%, high incremental margins and trading close to 20x ’22 EPS is a “don’t try to reinvent the wheel you idiot” idea And no, I’m not adjusting for cash, SBC, losses in other bets/cloud,etc Also buybacks are still a joke: share count down <5% since 2018

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

$BRK 10-year performance vs. the S&P Phew.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

The Investor’s Dilemma: If valuation is so difficult (or impossible) to pinpoint, is it worth spending too much time on it?

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

1 year

TCI (Chris Hohn) going activist on $GOOG: “We are writing to express our view that the cost base of Alphabet is too high and management needs to take aggressive action. The company has too many employees and the cost per employee is too high.” Letter:

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

A few serial acquirers, last 10 years vs. the $SPY Some of these still have a very decent runway ahead of them.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Ok repeat after me: Sum of the parts is meaningless if you’re never going to get ‘the parts’

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

What is the most successful American luxury brand? I can't think of many to begin with.

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Good day to remind everyone that being an asshole has a negative net present value. Everything compounds, be kind.

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

What are some examples of companies with physical network effects? - Railroads - $AMZN - $UHAL - $FDX / $UPS - $V / $MA

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

8 months

How did he do it? Focused on 5 Key Areas (from @FoundersPodcast ): 1) Lifelong learning 2) He's rich, but was never in a hurry 3) Took care of his health, eats well and exercises 4) Good relationships, spends time with friends and family 5) Treats life like an adventure, has fun

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

$RIDE investors right now:

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Finally finished reading the Nick Sleep (Nomad) Letters, which are outstanding in every sense. 219 pages worth reading, 13 year track record – 18.4% net-of-fees CAGR vs. MSCI 6.5% I also looked up the US holdings of his foundation today, no surprises…

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

$LVMH organic growth by group, including 2021 comps... insane

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Controversial Tweet of the Day: Berkshire should acquire Netflix. Solves $BRK huge cash and elephant problem in a sector they understand, while $NFLX can focus on their goal without the quarterly stock market noise/volatility. Ok logging off now, have a great weekend everybody

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

1 year

Best selling high-end watch brands: 1. Rolex 2. Cartier 3. Omega 4. Audemars Piguet 5. Patek Philippe (unchanged vs 2021) source: Morgan Stanley

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 months

A few takeaways from the Morgan Stanley 7th Annual Swiss Watch report: Polarization continued the Big 4 (Rolex, Patek, AP and Richard Mille) gaining share (+200 bps) and capturing 44% of the market (vs 36.9% in 2019)

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

7 months

Every time I see someone pitch an Auto OEM stock saying the PE is 4x and it could conservatively go to 6x

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

8 months

Regardless of the view you have on $RH stock, Gary's explanation of why he bought back 17% of their shares in the quarter deserves a lot of credit. Crazy how 99%+ companies don't think like this.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

$BRK cash

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Sleepwell🛌

2 months

The story from the Hermès @AcquiredFM podcast that they hired some consultants in the 70s and they recommended that they should cut prices, increase the number of SKUs and outsource production is the most consulting thing ever

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Ackman’s best trait is his ability to deal with failure and constantly evolve as an investor. Just incredible.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

1 year

Any good pieces/podcasts on the history and success of $MNST Monster beverage? Trying to reverse engineer how something like this happens...29% CAGR over 31 years (2400x) I included $AAPL and $BRK for comparison, you can barely see them

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

After 5 years of following the story and understanding the business model, I finally fixed one my biggest thumb-sucking mistakes of omission. Long $NFLX 📀

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Everybody: we’re entering a recession $LVMH: Q3 organic sales were up 19% y/y with strong performance across all regions and business groups

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Sleepwell🛌

3 years

A simple yet powerful exercise: If you own 5 stocks for 20 years and: a) 1 is wiped out b) 3 grow at the broad market-rate c) 1 grows at 2x the market-rate You outperform by 250bps annually and 58% total. Not very intuitive. Lesson: long term compounding can hide mistakes.

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

$BRK outperforming $ARKK since right before the pandemic started. Interesting times. Valuation matters. [Not dunking on anyone here]

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Sleepwell🛌

1 year

For your convenience, I've summarized all the tech earnings calls below

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2 years

$AAPL Q1’22—These numbers literally can’t fit in your head -Products: $104B (+9%) -Services: $19.5B (+24%) -Total Rev +11% -Gross margin 43.7% -Op margin 33.5% (+3.5%) -FCF $44.2 (+25%) -$202B cash+securities,$123B in total debt -Buybacks $20b (-20%, makes sense given valuation)

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

11 months

$RH just unveiled its first ever Gallery in Europe: RH England Pictures look stunning (and expensive)

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

So let me get this straight: Tomorrow at open $NFLX stock will be ~6% higher than it’s pre-pandemic price (Feb-20) but with 33% more subs and 50% higher revenues. Oh, and also *below* 2018 levels. Mr. Market you’re a manic-depressive nut job.

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Sleepwell🛌

1 year

Interesting recent VIC Writeup on $NTDOY by 08ird (short summary): "Nintendo has already expanded its operating margin from ~4% in FY15 to ~35% today. Incredibly, its stock has hardly seen any multiple expansion, despite numerous value-unlocking events that have happened."

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3 years

An interesting exercise, inspired by a convo with @eboroian How to break a DCF: -Operating leverage -Accelerating revenue growth -Completely new businesses -Tons of M&A or buybacks -Issuing lots of debt -Long forecast periods -others? More importantly: which companies do this?

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Which Twitter account is so good that you can get lost on their timeline for hours looking back through Tweets? @10kdiver comes to mind

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

I want to make sure I follow the best experts on here for each sector. Please tag an account below and specify which sector/companies you consider them experts on. Example: $BRK @rationalwalk @ChrisBloomstran Luxury @Retail_Guru @eboroian EVs @forwardcap Semis @FoolAllTheTime

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Even more insane is that AirPods have higher revenues than the *entire* Recorded Music Industry🤯

@gannonbreslin

Gannon Breslin

3 years

This will never get old for me

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2 years

Did I overpay for this or is this the next Margin of Safety? Anyway look forward to it.

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Sleepwell🛌

1 year

Highlights from the $CSU Compensation Program, which is rare for a public company. The objective is attracting highly skilled executives and reward and retain those who create long-term value for shareholders, but the way they do it is quite unique. 1/n

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Buffett with Berkshire’s 2004 federal tax return (pile of 10,000+ pages) and his first tax return filed at age 13 (page on his hand)

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

8 months

US Alcoholic Beverages Share of Throat

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Sleepwell🛌

3 years

The Polarity Portfolio, according to Nick Sleep (Nomad): “Several large, simple, high conviction holdings, and a tail of more complicated and less certain ideas (but which may have more upside)” Top 5 holdings 50% of the portfolio, Top 10 75%, and the remaining tail is 20 names.

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Sleepwell🛌

3 years

What are the inevitable trends of the next 10 years?

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3 months

Value Investing is dead, exhibit #2457

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

It’s been 8 years since $FB bought WhatsApp. 1. Why has the pace of innovation been so slow? 2. Why isn’t it being properly monetized? Can it be? 3. Are messaging apps just too hard to monetize? 4. Any tangible evidence this will change soon? (DMs open if answer is too long)

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Pretty insane that $FB capex for this year is equal to 75% the amount that $TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, will spend… $32B vs. $42B

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Sleepwell🛌

2 years

An industrial that doesn’t get enough attention: $AME makes electronic instruments and electromechanical devices, serial acquirer 80+ acquisitions since 2000 ~100% FCF deployed to acquisitions 23% EBIT margin 19% 10yr CAGR Net Debt/EBITDA 1.4x ~22x fwd P/FCF ROIC 16% ROTCE 100%

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1 year

JPMorgan 2023 Best Ideas – Internet Growth $AMZN Value $IAC

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1 year

What company has (>10 years) compounded FCF per share at a far higher rate than their share price has appreciated? h/t Locked Account (such an excellent question so I wanted to give it more visibility)

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Sleepwell🛌

3 years

Are you allowed to post your portfolio if you’re underperforming the market YTD?

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3 months

$RACE with a cool 45% incremental margin while shipments grew just 3%. Talk about pricing power.

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Sleepwell🛌

3 years

🎼Second article out now👩🏼‍🎤🎵 ‼️ 💿 Everything you always wanted to know about Music Streaming Royalties but were afraid to ask. All in one place, like it’s being explained to a 5-year old🎙 Thank you all! If you enjoy please subscribe and share🙏🏼

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Music Streaming Royalties 101

Understanding the value chain through the life of a song and following the money trail

sleepwell.substack.com

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Sleepwell🛌

5 months

wow...lack of words for this. Rest In Peace giant🙏 Forever grateful for your infinite wisdom and inspiration

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2 years

FinTwit and Stock pitches

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2 years

One of the most interesting aspects on the online luxury industry is that $AMZN has had close to zero success in breaking in. Probably stays that way too. One less (potentially huge) competitor.

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Sleepwell🛌

1 year

Sat next to someone on the plane who sold his company to $BRK Said the process is just as advertised: they leave you alone to do your thing, just send a monthly report to Buffett. Greg was great, took his time to make sure they were comfortable. Seemed very happy with outcome.

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1 year

The new $RACE CEO was surprised to learn many employees had never been inside a Ferrari, so he organized a test drive for them. It helped bring more meaning to their jobs and appreciate all the miniscule details of the job. One employee apparently cried during the experience.

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

3 years

⚠️New Substack Piece on Investing Conviction⏳ This was a difficult one. It’s such a complex yet fascinating topic that doesn’t get enough attention. It’s also highly personal but hope you can get something out of it. Please share if you enjoy!

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The Raw Material of Long Term Investing

How I Build Conviction to Sleep Well at Night

sleepwell.substack.com

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

“I focus on cash flow. It’s positive, and we’re not dependent on investors to fund us,” Ek says with a shrug. “We aren’t profitable yet because we keep investing. We want to keep growing because there is such a big prize at the end of the tunnel.” $SPOT

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Spotify Has Plans To Move Beyond Music And Become The Instagram And TikTok Of Audio

Daniel Ek convinced labels and artists to stream their songs on Spotify, reviving the flatlining music industry. Now, after amassing a $4.4 billion fortune, he’s opening his superstreamer to storyt...

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

"Amazon took 13 years to migrate from Oracle to AWS. If that's not switching costs I don't know what is" – @AcquiredFM podcast on $AMZN AWS

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6 months

$BRK Q3 - Under The Hood What seems on the surface as a strong report (BRK defined earnings +41%) is weaker under the hood Entire increase was driven by insurance (underwriting recovery+investment income from higher rates) All other businesses were weak. Q3 Organic revenue:

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1 year

I posted the below in an investment forum where someone asked the differences between $ROP and $CSU. This is a very valid question since both acquire and manage VMS businesses. I've followed both closely for a few years and quite a few differences come to mind.

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2 years

$BRK bought $51 billion in equities in the quarter, cash down to $102b (vs $144b in Dec). Buybacks $3b

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2 years

“ $AMZN expects to be larger than UPS/Fedex in the US by 2022" The ramp from 2016 is unbelievable… h/t @LibertyRPF Newsletter Source: @benedictevans

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2 years

$CSU.TO Shares Outstanding (000’s): 2007: 21,192 2008: 21,192 2009: 21,192 2010: 21,192 2011: 21,192 2012: 21,192 2013: 21,192 2014: 21,192 2015: 21,192 2016: 21,192 2017: 21,192 2018: 21,192 2019: 21,192 2020: 21,192 2021: 21,192 2022: 21,192 (estimated)

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2 years

$SPOT vs. $NFLX

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@SleepwellCap

Sleepwell🛌

2 years

Insane chart from the WSJ: Global value of music catalog acquisitions

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