Searching @NegativeGW Twitter profile

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@likenenek

@hoshihoshigenn

@HaneAme_cos2

@MarcusJermaine4

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@NegativeGW

1 year

AWS - fastest growing online ad business MSFT - fastest growing search engine META - most disciplined big tech company GOOG - best paid senior management team?

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@NegativeGW

5 years

1/ Challenge accepted. I have followed $MSFT for over a decade. It's as well run now as anytime I have seen it. Slack is a wonderful idea for a simple product that is ideal for certain types of work and has taken off in the tech world where new tools are often quickly adopted.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

Why this is the best platform...

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@NegativeGW

10 months

Baupost buying AMZN must be a real "where is your god now" moment for the brotherhood of value investooors.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

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@NegativeGW

3 years

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@NegativeGW

2 months

Never change twitter

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@NegativeGW

2 years

So are we done w/ investors in Russian stocks explaining the nuances of geopolitics to the rest of us?

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@NegativeGW

3 years

1/ I think there are two problems w/ $FB which is why there is so much angst about it: (1) Investors, including MZ, aren't sure about the durability of FB's core business; and (2) Investors have no idea how much MZ might be willing to blow trying to build the metaverse.

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@NegativeGW

9 months

Jeff Richards

@jrichlive

9 months

Brookfield CEO Bruce Flatt w/ ⁦ @davidfaber ⁩ “Just for context…We put over $50 billion to work in buyouts over the last 12 months…Very few people were able to do that.” $BN $BAM

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@NegativeGW

2 years

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@NegativeGW

3 years

1/ Most insurance companies are terrible businesses (even more true of life & annuities) but they do have large balance sheets which is attractive to certain people. Far as I know, the idea of taking over insurers for their investments stretches back to the late 60's.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

When you were absolutely referring to Q3 because you were comparing your results to Zillow's but you've talked to the lawyers...and they told you to have a typo in your correcting tweet to demonstrate a pattern of typos...

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@NegativeGW

4 months

My new favorite thing is seeing people buy a "deep value stock" in a controlled company where management expressly disdains shareholders and then proceed to complain about said management when they continue to behave in a manner consistent w/ the historical record.

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@NegativeGW

11 months

Imagine there's no mergers It's easy if you try No more PE rollups VC corpses left to die Imagine all the lawyers living day to day...Aha Imagine there's no bank deals It isn't hard to do Uninsured depositors No clue what to do Imagine all the bankers Living life in fear...You

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@NegativeGW

3 years

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@NegativeGW

2 years

So I ball so hard, Lina Khan wanna fine me But first regulators gotta find me What's $70B to a motherfucker like me? Can you please remind me? Ball so hard this shit crazy Y'all don't know that don't shit faze me Bing could go to zero And I look at you like this shit gravy

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@NegativeGW

3 years

1/ Probably my last $ROOT thread. I thought last night's release of a $CVNA investment was burying the lede (a CR of almost 200). This morning it is a whole lot worse. They are giving $CVNA warrants equivalent to 258mm shares (about what's already issued). Say goodbye to upside.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

I don't know who needs to see this, but AOL had a market cap north of $200B at the bubble peak (CY Q4'99). Here are the abbreviated financials. Some pretty lazy analysis out there...

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@NegativeGW

1 year

It's cool if you believe SVB's loan book was junk. I don't really care. BUT THAT IS NOT WHAT KILLED THEM SO PLEASE STOP WITH THE BAD TAKES!

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@NegativeGW

3 years

Never let the facts get in the way of a good story...

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@NegativeGW

1 year

Amazes me how often people jump to defend a company they own. You should be the most critical about companies you actually own. And if you ever find yourself defending a company against somebody else's shitpost, it's time to go touch grass.

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@NegativeGW

1 year

$CVNA a great bookend to this cycle of funds taking absurdly concentrated positions in companies where the best case scenario had power-law outcomes (which include a zero) and pretending that made sense because they "knew the companies better". Knowledge does not change risk.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

Literally everything he does is for engagement. That is the only prism to use when you hear outrageous stuff like this or see RTs of alt-right fanfic anti-tech threads. This guy was in charge of growth hacking at FB and it's what he knows how to do.

Michael Sobolik

@michaelsobolik

2 years

Owner of the @warriors 🏀 says he doesn’t care about the Uyghurs. The conversation goes downhill from there. @chamath … - questions whether a genocide is actually happening - says the CCP isn’t a dictatorship - says the US is no better than the CCP

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@NegativeGW

1 year

"We get Taiwan and you get to sell us handbags."

Theresa Fallon

@TheresaAFallon

1 year

Caption this

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@NegativeGW

3 years

Cavanagh from $CMCSA saying exactly the opposite of what you want to hear on capital allocation. Businesses are not children. If the returns are not adequate you should at a minimum not allocate additional capital to them. cc: @willis_cap

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@NegativeGW

10 months

"If your investments don't have earnings they can't have multiple compression."

Chamath Palihapitiya

@chamath

10 months

“Multiple compression is a bitch.” -Ben Spero The most important takeaway for me from Adyen’s earnings is the following: Middlemen business models are an eventual race to the bottom. Why? Because they have two default paths: Path1: compete for the big contracts. This forces

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@NegativeGW

1 year

Serious question - Are bank CEOs on drugs? This is one of the dumbest things I have ever read. I did not have PNC on my troubled bank list but maybe I need to revisit.

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@NegativeGW

1 year

Value Bros: "I diversified my material and energy bets with some regional banks. I'm gonna make so much money on this inflation trade and NIM expansion." The Market:

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@NegativeGW

3 years

Introducing a new word... A Drunkenmiller is when in a drunken stupor you think you are as smart as Druckenmiller and so go all-in on a position because "there is no way to lose". Eventually after a lot of💎🙌tweets and a large drawdown you sober up and realize you are not Stan.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

1/ Competition will lead a business/industry to match a successful competitive behavior no matter how ugly management (or you) might find the practice. The high road is only available to companies w/ massive moats.

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@NegativeGW

4 years

For the few of you interested in auto insurance and SPACs I wrote up $INAQ (the soon to be Metromile). h/t @evan_lorenz & @kylerhasson for proofreading - any mistakes now are purely my own, because I can't help but tinker with these things.

Metromile: InsurTech & SPAC Dreams

After beginning a twitter thread which was getting too long here I am on substack. Whether I will ever write another one of these, I don’t know. But I wanted to share my thoughts on this one and...

negativegoodwill.substack.com

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@NegativeGW

9 months

Dave Clark as the fall guy here having only been on the job for a year is hilarious because I keep receipts.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

It still amazes me that this thread which demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of not only economics but also logistics got the engagement it did. Lot of lemmings out there. I see a politician in the making.

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@NegativeGW

4 years

1/ This post was instigated by a VIC write-up on $AYX relating to ASC 606 accounting. First off, I think ASC 606 is terrible, but I also think the write-up on VIC is wrong. So this is my attempt to show how I would adjust revenue numbers at $AYX to determine underlying growth.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

LinkedIn generates more revenue than SNAP, TWTR & PINS combined. I didn't see that coming when the deal was announced. Never bet your bias.

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@NegativeGW

5 years

1/ For those who don't understand what is going on in gas-focused E&P world I am going to try to explain $RRC, $AR, $COG, $EQT, $GPOR & $SWN all in one go and let the twitter world decide... @EnergyCredit1 @EnergyCynic @aeberman12 @WallStCynic @John_Hempton @bethanymac12

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@NegativeGW

11 months

gm

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@NegativeGW

6 months

Aon using an adjusted EBITDA multiple that requires inorganic growth to achieve. 🚩🚩🚩

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@NegativeGW

3 years

Very old but IMO still the best explanation of insurance cycles and if you invert it you can apply this to the investing cycle as well.

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@NegativeGW

1 year

Life comes at you fast. 2021: BNPL will disrupt V/MA 2023: VCs discover private label cards RIP FinTech

Alex Rampell

@arampell

1 year

1/ The Future of Payments…is Red? What could disrupt Visa/MasterCard/Amex? How might a new payments Goliath start? Let’s talk about the Target Red Card. Target did >$100B in revenue last year, 20% of which happened on its own cards:

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@NegativeGW

11 months

New draft merger guidelines just dropped.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

@Post_Market Tell me you're long CVS w/o telling me you're long CVS

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@NegativeGW

3 years

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@NegativeGW

2 years

Gonna be an interesting 12-18 months. Right now everyone wants to travel and willing to cut elsewhere to do it. So the market is a minefield of covid beneficiaries but eventually the question becomes - when does the market fade the travel boom. Way too early, but it will come.

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@NegativeGW

9 months

So many comp schemes masquerading as stocks out there.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

1/ Anyone who has bought a stock only to realize later that they didn't understand it well enough knows that the only way to gain confidence about a business is to do your own work...so optimizing for quality LT shareholders is the opposite of marketing your stock.

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@NegativeGW

6 months

Never be short shitcos when the Fed flips dovish, but the CEO of a company RTing a literal retail bagholder is...🚩🚩🚩

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@NegativeGW

3 years

1/ I'm going to keep harping on this one... THERE IS ZERO CHANCE THAT THIS WAS BY ACCIDENT Looks like you can use swaps to get around rules on disclosure & market manipulation as well as the short-swing profit rule.

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@NegativeGW

1 year

Could be worse…you could have started a company w/perpetual losses whose stock is down 90+% from the hyped up podcast nonsense you were pitching.

Daniel Schreiber

@daschreiber

1 year

"GEICO's technology needs a lot more work than I thought it did. It has more than 600 legacy systems that DON'T REALLY TALK TO EACH OTHER. That's a MONUMENTAL CHALLENGE" (Ajit Jain, Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting, May 6/23)

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@NegativeGW

3 years

Does anyone else hate the latest change in EDGAR? I presume this is my punishment for crapping on SEDAR...

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@NegativeGW

3 months

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@NegativeGW

9 months

I don't want to read more books by Isaacson and Lewis who were both clearly owned by their subjects. When do we get a book from @matt_levine ? Definitely covered both of these subjects far better.

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@NegativeGW

10 months

1/ Welcome to weekend microcap insurance musings. Just a quick set of notes from my wknd looking at $UIHC soon to be $ACIC. First off I thought @JonCukierwar did a nice job outlining this special sit. Always fun to see detailed analysis. My thread assumes you have read it.

Jon Cukierwar

@JonCukierwar

10 months

American Coastal Insurance Corporation $ACIC $UIHC is a remarkably high-quality specialty P&C insurer unfamiliar to most due to a recent corporate restructuring FY24+ P/E of 2-3x and deep discount to future BV and TBV New memo is available here:

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@NegativeGW

7 months

I was promised disruption!

DramaAlert

@DramaAlert

7 months

MrBeast’s Feastables didn’t seem to preform great this Halloween season, TikToker suggests.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

@Post_Market Need a very low earnings multiple w/o declining earnings to be able to have decent returns from buybacks. What actually works is GDP like growth w/ expanding margins to get you to like MSD earnings growth and a lowish multiple for buybacks. Tobacco. WEB's AAPL was similar.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

"There are no value investors in foxholes" -CBS Student

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@NegativeGW

9 months

A group of grifters have a show about grifting. Should be called the All-In-But-Not-With-Our-Money Podcast. The ability to show zero remorse for leading people off a cliff is something special...takes an unusually awful human being.

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@NegativeGW

1 year

1/ I have no position (ofc that can change at any time) and I have no investment advice. Think these are the two most important charts at $SCHW. The thing about this one is that this is the highest spread they have taken since they really deployed their banking strategy.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

FB's CapEx war is based on the idea that better AI leads to more engagement...and they have to win against ByteDance. People hating on this think the risk is only to younger cohorts, but if anything TikTok proved out the idea that a better algo can work around network effects.

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@NegativeGW

8 months

@modestproposal1

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@NegativeGW

2 years

Laughing about discovery...learning about discovery.

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@NegativeGW

6 months

How I picture every day in the life of a tobacco investooor.

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@NegativeGW

8 months

Amazon fell 4% today as investors read the FTC lawsuit and realized that online retail is hard and this doesn't sound like one of those fun monopolies that just print cash.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

I love the people that for first time in their investing lives have decided that trailing numbers are more appropriate than forward numbers when quoting FB multiples.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

Guess which bank! Bankers spent so much time worried about credit risk that they forgot about the other banking risk. Worse when you take out intangibles...

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@NegativeGW

4 years

If US GDP grows 4% nominal for 20 years, 2039 GDP is $47T. If a $1.4T market cap company compounds at 15% (excluding dividends) for those 20 years you get a $23T company or a company that is almost 50% of GDP. Not impossible just extremely unlikely. Base rates matter.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

On a long enough timeline every podcast becomes a venue for promoters looking for marks.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

"We do mark-to-market when there is a risk of price discovery" is quite the admission.

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@NegativeGW

1 year

It's amazing some of the acrobatics I have seen to suggest this BX deal was actually good. You can't combine liquidity and fake marks. Locked up capital enables stability of marks. Otherwise people will try to arb the marks. BREIT structure was the original sin.

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@NegativeGW

3 years

It still amazes me that this thread which demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of not only economics but also logistics got the engagement it did. Lot of lemmings out there. I see a politician in the making.

Ryan Petersen

@typesfast

3 years

What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks? Modern finance with its obsession with "Return on Equity."

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@NegativeGW

4 months

Hilarious to see VCs think every business can be high margin. I guess we just ignore that they are selling a very expensive product dependent on skilled labor with massive economies of scale and a huge learning curve where the size of the order book is critical to profitability.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

Imagine how unstoppable the US would be if we had a coherent immigration policy that allowed us to be a magnet for talent and hardworking folk escaping impossible situations instead of the incoherent garbage we have today. Instead, zero leadership just politics all the time.

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@NegativeGW

7 months

And Hamas is a community organizer. Gaslighting is a feature not a bug of political extremes on either side. And the problem w/ people like this is that they absolutely understand what it actually means.

Rashida Tlaib

@RashidaTlaib

7 months

From the river to the sea is an aspirational call for freedom, human rights, and peaceful coexistence, not death, destruction, or hate. My work and advocacy is always centered in justice and dignity for all people no matter faith or ethnicity.

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@NegativeGW

1 year

After a long weekend of absolute batshit crazy nonsense on this godforsaken platform I am truly excited for the market to open tomorrow. Because bad stock, private debt, RE, banking and macro takes are a whole lot better than whatever the hell this was.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

Anyone thinking that real estate is some kind of magic pill for a persistently high inflation environment should go look at going-in cap rates in the early 70's.

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@NegativeGW

1 year

Some of you out there haven’t learned the Einhorn lesson that shorting on valuation (which is basically sentiment) is a way to the poor house. That it may have worked for you at some point doesn’t make it a good idea.

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@NegativeGW

1 month

When even the waitstaff disapproves of you taking photos at a private dinner event so that you can tell your followers once again how great you are.

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@NegativeGW

4 months

So I asked him...Mike can you think of anything fraudy about your name? And he said no. And that is how I came to buy stock in a company run by Judas Michael Pearson. I honestly though he was just the son of a pear picker.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

1/ The problem with $ROOT has never been the idea of fairer pricing. It is one of integrity. A company built around finding answers in data needs integrity. What is integrity? Integrity is not blaming layoffs on inflation when you have never had profitable unit economics.

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@NegativeGW

5 months

Banking thoughts There are good reasons to think US banks that were not offsides on duration or credit will have higher ROEs going forward than they have had in a very long time. In the short run deposit margins have likely peaked and credit is still benign, which is no bueno.

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@NegativeGW

10 months

The gang discovers AMZN. What was great about this one was there was a clear historical precedent for cost of capital goes up and AMZN finds religion and yet everyone thought a former hedge fund guy was not going to optimize for the environment because he was on holiday.

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

10 months

“You want to get nuts? .. let’s assume the ‘Core’ Retail Business generates just a 2% OI Margin in 2025E. .. that means $AMZN OI in 2025E could be upwards of $79B .. The sheer scale of EBIT .. revisions that we might see .. dwarfs anything else in large-cap tech.” Bernstein desk

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@NegativeGW

4 months

People trying to call a top in a bubble ngmi

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@NegativeGW

9 months

My favorite fintweets are the ones that go so hard that you know the person writing it lost a lot of money.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

Lemonade Investor Day! Fancy Room ✅ Tailored Suit ✅ Company Swag ✅ Talk of AI Disruption ✅ Discussion of when they will make a profit 😴

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@NegativeGW

2 years

If you are hodling a stock that is down almost 80% from the highs and still tweeting about it, you're ngmi. $LMND

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@NegativeGW

1 year

Maybe check your own AI to see if this is possible.

Sam Altman

@sama

1 year

ugh fine here is my SVB thread: TL;DR: at this point, to be certain of avoiding catastrophe, the FDIC needs to temporarily guarantee all deposits. other solutions might work, but this is the best one.

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@NegativeGW

4 years

1/5 Today cable has a monopoly on a large swath of US broadband, this was serendipity on the part of the industry. When most of investment happened no one foresaw this. Lifetime ROIC in the cable business would not have been attractive without broadband.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

1/ Hi there @SenWarren . So the SEC actually has a handy website (EDGAR) that you can use to research what companies do (better than CNN). If you look up $HTZ you can see that over the last 9 months they have actually issued (net of distributions) $5.6B of equity capital.

Elizabeth Warren

@SenWarren

2 years

While customers pay record-high rental car costs, what is @Hertz doing? Lining the pockets of executives and private equity investors with $2 billion in stock buybacks. @Hertz owes the public an explanation for their corporate greed.

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@NegativeGW

11 months

It’s a god damn securitization. You did not invent these and even if you name your dog “cat” they will never stop being a dog.

Daniel Schreiber

@daschreiber

11 months

We announced 𝐒𝐲𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐀𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 last week, and it's a game changer for Lemonade (see why: ). It's tempting to think it's 'just debt', but that misses a lot. It has things in common with debt, sure, but four differences makes all the difference.

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@NegativeGW

10 months

Media investors: "I can fix him."

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@NegativeGW

2 years

Fintwit but if you try to call a bottom and get it wrong your account gets locked up for a year.

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@NegativeGW

11 months

That shitcos are basically a factor trade is honestly the most incredible thing about stocks today, but also explains a whole lot about market structure.

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@NegativeGW

1 year

The last guy who claimed to know a subject better than any single person alive was a fabulous contra.

Patrick OShaughnessy

@patrick_oshag

1 year

Who on Twitter knows their domain (regardless of the domain) better than anyone alive?

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@NegativeGW

2 years

I think about this exchange with one of the co-founders of $OPEN a lot.

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@NegativeGW

11 months

So it just occurred to me that Twitter is basically the Kmart/Sears of internet companies. A barely profitable second tier social network taken over by a guy that everyone thinks has the golden touch with a view that you can run the business for profit instead of volume.

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@NegativeGW

2 years

Look I don’t call market tops or bottoms but anyone who thinks there are dominant (almost monopoly) businesses trading at 2-3x free cash flows is either batshit crazy or selling something (possibly both).

Kuppy

@hkuppy

2 years

2) PM cash levels are high, sentiment is washed, many really dominant (almost monopoly) value names are 2-3x FCF. Why can’t this be bottom?? If not THE BOTTOM, why not A MULTI-MONTH BOTTOM?? If you aren’t buying when they’re hated and they are cheap, when are you buying??

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@NegativeGW

4 years

The lady doth protest too much...

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@NegativeGW

1 year

Imagine scrolling through twitter and thinking…You know what we need more of? Active HF managers willing to share every dumb idea on subjects they know nothing about w/o editors. Isn’t that what thick hedge fund letters are for? What’s wrong…not getting enough reach offline?

Sar Haribhakti

@sarthakgh

1 year

What other hedge fund managers are as active in sharing their views on Twitter or anywhere online like Bill Ackman and Brad Gerstner?

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@NegativeGW

11 months

Will repeat this until the cows come home. If you need financing at 16% you have a garbage business model and should be focused on product. Clear as day to anyone with street smarts. GC bears the risk of loss in the same way your loan shark does. If they lose you’re dead. $LMND

Daniel McCarthy

@d_mccar

11 months

The @generalcatalyst Customer Value platform is so interesting -- fund CAC upfront for a given cohort, get a % of revenue from it until target IRR is reached, bear risk of loss if it doesn't (but get access to all relevant data to minimize that risk).

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@NegativeGW

1 year

Not sure if anyone else picked up on this but apparently BRK has modified the acquisition criteria on the website.

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