Delhi’s diplomatic prowess in full display today: crafting a G20 consensus declaration despite extraordinary geopolitical fissures. Something in there for everyone to claim as a win.
After months of icy 🇺🇸 🇧🇩 relations, even President Biden and PM Hasina connected over a happy…
Dhakai Jamdani - knitting success saga of Bangladesh at the global level.
President Biden captured a selfie with Prime Minister Hasina and her daughter
@drSaimaWazed
in New Delhi.
This by
@quizzicalguy
shows how much the West-centric historiography and ideology continues to weigh.
Can one even consider the claim of India as the mother of democracy, or at least as one of the mothers? Scandal! Impossible!
But good old Greece as the mother of democracy —…
This document opens with PM Modi’s statement in which he says that the country has “the distinction of being named as ‘Mother of Democracy’”. Who named it so? The current regime. Nobody else calls India the “mother of democracy”. If at all there is one, then it is ancient Greece.
1. There are several reasons why India would have decided to invite Pres. Macron -- and I suspect one of them is to reward France for its political realism:
Unlike other Western capitals, Paris has rarely if ever commented or acted on India's internal affairs. [thread]
French President Emmanuel Macron invited to be the chief guest at Republic Day 2024. This is the 6th time, a French leader will be the Chief guest at the grand parade in Delhi, which is the maximum any country has been given such honor. Reporting:
1. For many Europeans this seems to have come as a big surprise or sound like a lame Indian excuse to keep working “with Russia against the West”…
2. This perception reflects a lack of knowledge about India’s strategic culture, which is often more familiar to/appreciated by…
At
#Raisina2024
, MFA
#Jaishankar
on
#Russia
: At lot of doors have been shut to Russia in the West. So Russia turns east. Other nations should engage with Russia to give them more options. India does. Russia won't allow itself to become a junior partner of China.
#BlameTheWest
Cliché:
India can’t become a global power until it gets its region right.
Reality:
India is already a global power and using that to reshape its region.
India’s neighbourhood policy benefitting from econ & security partnerships in South Asia and Indian Ocean region: 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇫🇷
We often proclaim things to be new when in reality they are just things that we did not know.
India’s twin pillar policy for West Asia can be traced back to the late 1980s and is premised on crafting a strategic balance in the region to pursue its interests with the widest set…
Elections in Bangladesh.
A few (subjective) takes and (risky) predictions:
1. Any protests apart (even if violent over a few weeks/months), PM Hasina’s regime will remain steady in power with significant (even if declining) popular support — continuing one of Bangladesh’s…
Myths in here:
1. India’s “unqualified” support for Hasina govt.
2. India-Bangladesh relations “unequal”.
3. India wants a “weak regime” to maximize leverage.
4. US “gave” India “opportunity to extend its sphere of influence” but now reclaiming it.
And by “begun” I mean since 1947 — as I have documented previously: there is a long history of Indian leaders, from Nehru to Vajpayee, having made similar claims — about the ancient roots of Indian democracy.
2. This reflects a French approach to international politics which is not new, yet still distinct from the American, British or even German one.
It also indicates an exceptional French *political* understanding of "strategic autonomy" which is largely congruent with India's.
People sometimes ask me how I manage to live and survive in Delhi.
I actually love my life in India. It has taught me to look at things differently. And yoga helps me to constantly rebalance, adjusting to new challenges.
Like Indian foreign policy.
#YogaDay
We are hiring!
Come join an expanding team at CSEP in New Delhi.
Searching for Fellows / Associate Fellows that are passionate about cutting-edge, evidence-based research to inform policies and decision-making on India’s growing regional and global engagements.
All…
We are small but slowly growing!
So much happening on India's regional & global relations.
So many opportunities to do focused research with policy impact for India's progress!
Happy to announce some changes at CSEP Foreign Policy & Security Studies...
Much needed dose of realism on India in a rapidly changing region:
@MohanCRaja
on the old and new "South Asia."
Reminded me of this by K Subrahmanyam (1986):
“there is no justification for the sense of guilt some in India exhibit about our relationship with our neighbours. No…
Prashant Jha on India’s neighbourhood policy. Simply superb!
Coordination between different actors / orgs > more synergies & balance between political, security and economic agendas.
Much in here also explains 🇮🇳 policies re Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar.
b) cultural/identity: France (or Japan) respect India politically because they see India as an equal. They share a democratic paradigm: but "running your home is your business and I won't bring your issues up in our park walks unless you want to talk about it or ask for help."
Maldives-India crisis is a fine example of how domestic politics and foreign policy are increasingly connected -- in both countries.
@nicoblar
and I examined this trend in a recent chapter with cases on Nepal and the Maldives.
Free access pdf:
3. There are two ways to explain this.
a) utilitarian/power: France (or Japan) respect India politically *only* because they need each other for geostrategic purposes. Paris would really love to... but refrains from lecturing, commenting or acting on India's internal affairs.
4. My sense is
Approach a) is currently driving US policy to India. Same in different degrees for British or German thinking about India these days. "We will engage you and overlook/override our values, bureaucracies, pressure groups."
Delhi: OK, so you think you're doing us a…
Foreign policy begins on the border: India-Nepal railway connectivity is finally becoming a reality.
Unlocks economic benefits, transforms borderlands that were stagnant, political and security swamps for decades.
Further impetus for 🇮🇳-🇳🇵
#India
-
#Nepal
Development Partnership since the visit of PM
@cmprachanda
to India🇮🇳 (June 2023):
1️⃣ Kurtha-Bijalpura rail link operationalized; enhancing people-to-people
#connectivity
.
It was an honour to meet
@PM_nepal_
Prachanda after his historic visit to India.
Shared some of our CSEP research on regional connectivity
#Sambandh
Nepal and India are making their relationship truly special through new energy, road, railway & border connectivity links.🇳🇵🫱🏽🫲🏾 🇮🇳
Candid admission of something that many don’t see or choose to ignore: most of India’s foreign & security policies reflect continuity and cross-party consensus.
Beware of “analysts” telling you that polices are all new, whether amazing or disastrous.
India is acting East in both words and deeds:
1. Spells out its position on the South China Sea, little ambiguity left:
2. More than just declarations, has also begun to shape the military balance of power in the South China Sea.
5. One could therefore maybe speak of a growing inter-democratic alignment between France, India and Japan. And other middle, smaller powers.
Doesn't mean that this will become a fissure point, at the expense of US-India relations which remain on a structurally convergent path.
7. Yet: Pres. Biden cancelling his India visit for the Republic Day and Pres. Macron (likely?) coming instead has a symbolic meaning to it.
I would not be surprised if this Indian respect for France's political approach to strategic autonomy was one factor that led to the…
Some 30 years in the making, finally a reality!
Another example of how India is connecting the region, embracing the strategic logic of economic interdependence.
The new India-Bangladesh rail line will cut the distance between North-Eastern states and Kolkata to 500 km from 1,600 km.
The Agartala-Akhaura railway project drastically improves connectivity between North East India and Kolkata as the distance is reduced to 500 km via…
6. US is, in many ways, encouraging of stronger France-India and Japan-India ties. Part of its larger efforts to shape a favorable "Indo-Pacific" balance of power.
And US remains the only indispensable power with both intent and capability to support India's interests in Asia.
Watch this visit for an example of how India's neighbourhood policy prioritizes the strategic prize of connectivity over tactical politics.
Power transmission lines
Transportation links
Pipelines and waterways
Border infrastructure
#BuildAround
#FirstOrder
#Interdependence
Maldives: India withdraws military, China upgrades defence cooperation.
Nothing happens overnight: important to understand China's themes, tools and partners to build influence & leverage in South Asia.
Replug of our report with regional case studies:
China-India relations failed to normalize, so Beijing is back at poking Delhi in the neighbourhood.
Chinese ambassador portrays India as obstacle to Nepal’s development.
Also: lectures Nepal on how to run its economy, create “equal social structure” and accept the “BRI gift”.
In an unusually critical & open display of Wolf warrior diplomacy the Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song says "India's policies towards Nepal & other neighbours are not so friendly".
Vdo ctsy: Dainik news Nepal
The South Asia shuffle.
Publicly insist all is well with China but privately admit you're growing increasingly concerned.
Publicly insist you're unhappy with India but privately admit things are actually going well.
The ASEAN shuffle.
Publicly insist all is well with China but privately admit you're growing increasingly concerned.
Publicly insist you're unhappy with the U.S. but privately admit things are actually going well.
This emotional “friend vs foe” binary is rather simplistic.
Same warnings were made re Bangladesh after India’s CAA/NCR… yet the Dhaka-Delhi partnership deepened.
Domestic politics and bilateral policy relations do not always intersect: they often proceed on parallel tracks.
“Having learnt the art of diplomacy from Ashoka and strategy from Kautilya, it would be tragic for all concerned if Sri Lanka needs to apply the foreign policy theory of Rajamandala to find ‘friends’ elsewhere to protect itself against a ‘near foe’,”
Dreams come true!
#GrandTamasha
Thanks Milan for inviting me for this deep dive on India's neighbourhood policy.
Delhi is trying to reintegrate the region and expand its sphere of influence -- which once extended from Suez to Malacca.
Is it succeeding?
I assess progress,…
New on
#GrandTamasha
:
@ConstantinoX
of
@CSEP_Org
joins me to reflect on India's "Neighborhood First" policy after a decade of BJP rule. We discuss the crisis in the Maldives, Bay of Bengal connectivity, India in the Middle East & much more:
IMEC back in the limelight at Raisina Dialogue and with Greek PM in Delhi. Huge potential for EU-India connectivity partnership.
Important to understand the interests driving India’s participation and challenges ahead:
All Delhi’s eyes to the West on Washington this week but at CSEP our focus remains on ground zero, India’s immediate neighbourhood.
Held our 16th Tiffin talk on “China in South Asia: implications for India and future research paths.”
They say India’s foreign policy does not promote democracy…
But then here you have the amazing 10th batch of the GenNext Democracy Network which is run by the Indian Council For Cultural Relations for young parliamentarians and leaders from 75 countries.
New CSEP paper with
@_RiyaSinha
!
We examine the potential of multi-modal, inland infrastructure connectivity *around* the Bay of Bengal.
Beyond the maritime and coastal dimensions, India is giving the Indo-Pacific more (sub) continental depth: linking landlocked NER, BBIN,…
“The logic of economic geography is beginning to unfold in India’s relations with most of its neighbours, except Pakistan.”
Important piece on a region that is reconnecting.
I would only add that — besides Japan, US, France — India now also coordinating more w EU, UK, AUS et al
Shared today my story of leaving back Portugal to come to India as ICCR scholar in 2004 — and how scholarships matter for diplomacy and India’s global influence and interests.
Recalled this from 2019 with late EAM Sushma Swaraj:
Today, Dr.
@constantinox
, Fellow,
@CSEP_Org
& ICCR Distinguished Alumni Awardee, had an interactive session on “Role of ICCR and its Scholarship Programme" with the 36 IFS Officer Trainees of the 2023 batch and 02 Bhutanese Diplomats at ICCR HQs, Delhi.
EAM Jaishankar this month:
"let me highlight the need for lateral land-based connectivity across the Indian Ocean region. These are essential to supplement and complement the maritime flows."
Coming up, paper w/
@_RiyaSinha
and options on how to do this:
I write in
@FinancialXpress
on the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor (IMEC).
Gaza war may delay but will not derail India’s connectivity strategy with the Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean. Political, economic and geostrategic factors at play.
India’s new neighbourhood policy.
Different perceptions of China in India (negative) and rest of the region (positive).
The connectivity competition in the Bay of Bengal, stressing state capacity.
A few highlights from the Grand Tamasha w
@MilanV
:
An honour to address the 63rd course of India’s National Defence College, with 120 participants including 37 foreign officers.
I spoke on regional organisations & relevance in South Asia: India’s institutional innovations to correct the subcontinent’s connectivity gaps.
The King of Bhutan begins his visit to India today.
India-Bhutan ties are truly "special" and stand on their own strength. But it is impossible to ignore that there is also a changing dynamic as China moves closer, esp. after the Doklam border dispute flared up in 2017, and…
I write with
@karthiknach
:
India is playing out its green transition on different international chessboards.
Growing diplomatic agility via multilateral, bilateral and minilateral frameworks to secure financing, tech & capacity to drive decarbonisation.
On India and China in South Asia,
@jabinjacobt
and I share takeaways from our CSEP report.
This will be a boxing match with multiple rounds. Nepal, Sri Lanka & Bangladesh are learning to make the best of it.
Thank you Aditi Phadnis for the interview.
Excellent piece by Prashant Jha. Relevant samples in here on the neighbourhood, where some always look (hope?) for Indian failures.
There is also the opposite extreme narrative: that India is always doing it right and successful in the region.
Important to leave politics…
@horror06
@clary_co
Chris, adding to Indrani's two cases: Sri Lanka 1980s. Entire intervention based on attempt to build a more democratic order. Since the 1950s. Still a factor today. Why? Not because of naive idealism or ideological proclivity (which we too often assume to be the case with Western…
Always a pleasure interacting with High Commissioner Gopal Baglay.
Shared our CSEP
#Sambandh
research on Sri Lanka and the neighbourhood.
Important times ahead after the 🇮🇳 🇱🇰 vision statement on connectivity & prosperity: focus on maritime, air, energy, trade and p2p ties.
Important: my account was hacked into & all content shifted.
Please disregard any tweets/messages from the account "Constantinoeth_" below which I do not control.
Have reported this and trying to regain access. I am on Twitter only here with my original username:
@constantinox
Discussed some of my work on regional connectivity with the current and future practitioners of India’s diplomacy:
Indian Foreign Service mid-career and trainee courses at
@SSIFS_MEA
. 🙏🏽
India’s future is being played out in the neighbourhood in more ways than one can imagine.
Have known this city for 20 years and never seen its streets and parks so beautiful, neat, clean.
Delhi ready to host the G20 summit, palpable sense of excitement in the air.
Proud to be a Delhi resident.
Delighted to announce two more members in our CSEP Foreign Policy team.
Dr. Veda Vaidyanathan
@vedavn
, Associate Fellow. She brings in a wealth of knowledge on and fieldwork in Africa, including comparative research on India & China there.
Welcome, Veda!
Hasina in Delhi.
Macron and Lavrov in Dhaka.
There are many, silent and under-appreciated ways in which India shapes the political balance in Bangladesh.
US & EU positions re 🇧🇩 are increasingly out of sync with Delhi’s assessments and actions.
The last few weeks saw US & Aus open diplomatic missions in the Maldives.
No, not “another defeat for India losing control over the neighbourhood”
Reality:
Would not have happened if India opposed.
Welcome by India, indicative of rising comfort to coordinate policy in/on IOR.
Values never drive anything.
But they sit in the back, influencing interests.
During each journey, values can
1) facilitate, accelerate
2) complicate, delay
Strong partnerships find ways to maximize 1) & minimize 2).
India & US are learning to do this, will keep converging.
“persistent Chinese narrative that India’s development assistance efforts in Nepal are in collusion with Western efforts (to undermine China)”
Summary of our 6th Sambandh Policy Dialogue with
@SwarnimWagle
@VGokhale59
: Nepal non-aligned but not neutral.
India’s Quest for Global South: Challenges and Opportunities
Summary of our 22nd tiffin talk with
@MohanCRaja
@ShivshankaMenon
@malancha_1chakr
@vedavn
Some important ideas shared on how to pursue an India-centric research agenda on/with Global South:
Thanks IDSA and
@SujanChinoy
for hosting us at this South Asia conference with experts from across the region.
1. Our paper illustrates with a few case studies different policy options for India to enhance inland linkages around the Bay of Bengal.
Dr
@ConstantinoX
Fellow& Ms
@_RiyaSinha
Associate Fellow
@CSEP_Org
pointed out that disconnection of past 60 years is aberration, South Asia has always remained connected through multimodal links. Economics is driving force of connectivity.
1. One reads this piece and gets the impression that…
a) India just “got lucky” in the region.
b)
@DerekJGrossman
may soon write another piece on how India has *lost* its neighbourhood to China (and why the United States must step in to “fix it”…)
Seeing some alarmist takes on India now having "lost" Nepal to China...
Not really: with PM Prachanda in command, India remains engaged even while it prepares for different, long term scenarios.
Shared my assessment with
@bbcnepali
@phanindraktm
:
Great to reconnect with the ever-inspiring and dynamic
@sujeevshakya
after the tough pandemic years. And he has a new book!
We need to deepen Nepal-India ties.
#Sambandh
- How can India invest in Tibetan studies to further its policy interests?
- Is the "Tibet question" settled or does India still have a "political obligation"?
- What future for history and area studies at Indian universities and think tanks?
@ChawlaSwati
's rich paper…
1/4
CSEP hosted its 24th Foreign Policy and Security Studies Tiffin Talk on ‘Tibetan Studies in India: Past, Present and Future’ with
@ChawlaSwati
, Associate Professor. O.P. Jindal Global University.
Lowy’s Global Diplomacy Index shows India with 11th largest network, now at 192 missions.
Includes record number of new consulates opened since 2000s in South Asia.
Reflects rising importance of sub-national diplomacy in India’s neighbourhood policy:
Good news about India finally increasing the size of its diplomatic service, with 215 new IFS posts.
This will help narrow the gap between global ambition and capacity. More human and financial resources required for India to protect and promote its expanding interests.…
Pokhara International Airport witnessed first international landing today as Sichuan Airlines A319 aircraft from Chengdu, China landed at 9:06 this morning. Discussions with the relevant parties are underway to establish regular flights in the future.
Hold your horses! Significant chances that this TikTok ban may never get implemented, whether out of lack of will or capacity by the Nepali state.
But it’s one more indicator of how Nepal is overcoming its naive enthusiasm for all things China: recalibrating its engagement with…
Nepal decides to ban Chinese app
#TikTok
for encouraging a tendency of hate speech, the government said.
A Cabinet meeting on Monday took the decision to ban the app.
Enjoyed this insightful discussion with Robert Habeck, Germany’s Vice Chancellor during his significant visit to India.
Clear signs that Berlin is committed to deepen the Germany-India economic partnership — now with a more political, strategic & European angle.
@AmbAckermann
India’s climate diplomacy has been proactive & positive.
It joined and created new climate clubs (ISA, CDRI), raised expectations.
Now it must expand domestic capacity to strategize & coordinate action.
Time for a special envoy?
@karthiknach
& I write:
Lost count of Western policy predictions of how “history will be harsh” on India’s foreign policy choices.
Used to be right as it was mostly the West that wrote India’s history.
But no longer: archival turn in Indian IR, diplomatic & military studies is setting record straight.
Launching soon: report co-edited with
@karthiknach
on India’s global climate strategy.
How does Indian diplomacy navigate the fragmenting global governance architecture? Case studies on multilateral, minilateral, trilateral & bilateral tracks.
Join us next week at Habitat…
India and the European Union are now locked in to an inevitable and irreversible convergence process.
Thanks for inviting me and congrats to the Young Leaders from both sides. They will be shaping this process, explore opportunities and navigate the challenges ahead.
“You can lean towards one side when you understand you can return from there and restore balance.”
Ignore the title, read the full interview. So many sharp insights here by former Foreign Secretary Shahidul Haque on how Dhaka should “play the game”.
Wishing Mahesh Kushwaha from Nepal all the best after his
#Sambandh
summer internship at CSEP. We were glad to host him here in Delhi, which needs to listen to more voices like his from the neighbourhood.
Do follow his important work on Nepal’s citizenship & borders:
@okaymahesh
I spoke to
@suranjanasays
on China’s Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia.
The BRI has transformed the region and pushed India to deliver more, better and faster than ever before to its neighbours.
BRI or not, China will remain a resident power in a competitive, growing and…
Macron in Delhi announces French special envoy for IMEC.
Shows that the initiative is far from dead. And that France sees India as a connectivity player an an indispensable part in its Indo-Pacific strategy.
In 2021,
@_RiyaSinha
and I had argued for India's PM GatiShakti Masterplan to be first extended to neighbouring countries -- to accelerate cross-border connectivity and lift the region along.
Glad to see this coming true now:
“developing a missing cross-border railway link between India, Myanmar and Thailand will serve as a crucial multimodal connection between South and Southeast Asia”
Read this important piece by
@_RiyaSinha
on IMT railway connectivity.
#Sambandh
🚂
This 15th
#tiffintalk
was a real crash course on Xi Jinping, the CCP, 🇨🇳 political history!
Superb presentation by
@JosephTorigian
on The “New” and “Old” in Xi Jinping as a Chinese Leader.
Great discussion with a room full of China hands incl
@ShivshankaMenon
& Jayadev Ranade.
China’s themes, partners and tools of engagement in South Asia.
An understudied but increasingly important issue for India and its neighbours — who have very different perceptions of China.
Join us for this report launch and discussion on June 15:
@vasabjit_b
In the neighbourhood at least, I can attest that it remains alive and kicking: a beautiful declaration of intent constantly betrayed by the practical exigencies of reality.
Like most policy doctrines and visions.
Proud that
@NitikaNayar
is moving on for her MA
@SAISHopkins
after 4 years with us, first as an RA to
@d_jaishankar
.
She edited the
#Sambandh
Scholars Speak series and did superb research on India's diplomatic capacity in the region.
Capital cities of two countries with a total of 1.6 billion people.
Delhi: 28 million
Dhaka: 22 million
Direct daily flights: 3
#connectivity
#sambandh
What a good report launch this was!
Dr. Ajay Mathur DG
@isolaralliance
supported our recommendations for a more strategic Indian climate diplomacy, including a special envoy for climate change.
India is becoming a prominent international climate actor, and geopolitics is part…
#ReportLaunch
Our distinguished speakers joined by attending chapter authors launch the CSEP edited report "Tracks to Transition: India's Global Climate Strategy".
The report details India's climate diplomacy across various frameworks.
Read👇
Joint communique or not, and political noise aside, India’s presidency achieved its policy objective:
Make the G20 a bridging forum between the Global North & Global South. Focus on development governance & finance for climate, health, education.
🇧🇷 & 🇿🇦 will push this forward.
1. There are several reasons why India would have decided to invite Pres. Macron -- and I suspect one of them is to reward France for its political realism:
Unlike other Western capitals, Paris has rarely if ever commented or acted on India's internal affairs. [thread]
My quick take for
@FT
@b_parkyn
on US' DFC investment in Adani's port project in Sri Lanka:
“reflects growing strategic trust between India and the United States to co-operate to offer alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative”
“part of a larger Indian regional…
Maldives-India.
My comments in this piece by
@JohnReedwrites
on the link between foreign policy and domestic politics — in *both* neighbouring countries and India.
Muizzu forced the crisis, doing what he could. And Modi responded they way he must.
This question was asked in 1999, 2005, 2008, 2013, 2021 and many more times over the last 25 years.
It will be asked again in future.
And the answer remains the same: pace apart, US-India will keep converging for a long, long time. Pannu incident is just another confirmation.
The problem with the US India relationship is at two levels: 1) US has been behaving like a schizophrenic declining power unable to come to terms with the loss of its global supremacy. India, on the other hand, welcomes a multipolar world with several power centres and a…