An economist with a deep appreciation for both order and the absurd. Centered on money & macro, but liable to stray to distant topics in any direction.
My Simmel Hypothesis paper is up at the Journal of Evolutionary Economics.
I argue that money made us WEIRD by loosening cultural-evolutionary constraints on our sacred values. Think of it as Georg Simmel +
@JoHenrich
.
Summary ๐งต below.
There's an interesting dynamic we've had multiple times in our undergrad reading group. Rich student tries to excuse looting, or advocate for welfare expansion, or some such sympathetic-to-the-poor position. Poor student pushes back hard: Have you ever MET poor people?
In the NYT,
@powellAtlantic
notes that UC Berkeley carried out a cluster hireโeliminating 75% of faculty job applicants based on DEI statement alone. The second photo is Berkeley's own description.
Universities around the U.S. have embraced this model.
A quick thread.
John Maynard Smith: The theory of natural selection was first laid out before Darwin by a shipbuilder worried that logging was selecting for scrubby and crooked trees (as apparently happened in China?)
1) Create a community around obsessive enjoyment of something
2) Community becomes productive & high status
3) Wages & status attract careerists to the field
4) Signaling games arise to separate careerists from real obsessives
5) Careerists find this stressful and complain
It's obvious to anyone who actually glanced over the McKinsey study that it was purely correlational without even a cursory attempt at causal inference. Turns out even the simple correlation is bogus.
Over the past few years,
@McKinsey
has released at least 4 studies claiming a positive relationship between DEI and firm performance.
A new paper published today in
@EconJWatch
finds these results can't be replicated.
''Our inability to [replicate] their results suggests thatโฆ
@wwwojtekk
As I tell the students in my development class: the relative size of the orange stripe is a pretty good metric of an economy's corruption and dysfunction.
@mattyglesias
Fiddling at the politically feasible margins of tax policy isn't gonna move the needle. If your top issue is debt, you should passionately advocate for reductions in spending, which I certainly don't see either presidential candidate inclined to do.
New York Times warns that Signal users may be unwittingly promoting extremist ideologies such as privacy. Aghast that groups of technologists can build software. Argues we need a public discussion before law enforcement stops tapping our phones
Me hijacking a signal of competence to distribute rents to a client group: Haha heck yeah!!! Yes!!
Me when people start inferring competence by membership in that client group: Well this sucks. What the heck. You racist.
Notice how they donโt identify specific examples of people who are supposedly incompetent. Theyโre arguing that any black person flying a plane, working in medicine, attending law school is per se suspicious. They want to get rid of these people, totally segregate society again.
If would-be NYC teachers can get $1.8b in back pay for failing a supposedly discriminatory aptitude test, I want Berkeley's endowment drained to pay every qualified candidate who got filtered out at the DEI round.
@mattyglesias
"Maybe normal people would benefit from hearing them from a more normal source." That *was* Peterson, who then got weirdo-coded for doing exactly what you recommend!
Artists coming out strong against artists' assistants (who have, both today and historically, often done way more of the actual execution than the "ideas guy" whose name goes on the piece)
@entirelyuseles
The whole species maybe not, but if there are differences on average between wild and owned cats and dogs, you should expect to see de-domestication (and thus the extinction of this particular relationship) over time.
@DavidPorkstar
Imagine youโre the social climber who said mean things about poor people to impress the rich kids in your reading group only to find out via tweet that class is stickier than you thought
I believe this because based on assessments at my university, knowledge in every field has the same rank-order by major.
Finance students know the most, in every business field. Marketing students know the least in every field, including marketing.
This is why "virtue signaling" is the wrong model for woke capital. Satisfying to think it's all insincere profit-mongering, but is a real religious revival, and the signaling being done is costly and credible.
Disneyโs CEO took a toxic political positions that hurt Disneyโs business.
Normal capitalism: his top 3 shareholders would tell him to knock it off.
Capitalism today: BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard tell him to keep at it in the name of โESGโ & โDEI.โ
Thatโs the problem.
Unsettling analogy from A Farewell to Alms: there's no economic reason in principle why technology couldn't turn lots of people into ZMP workersย โย it did to horses! โย and it's perhaps just a lucky accident that it hasn't so far.
Why would the breakdown of shared cultureโas
@sarahdoingthing
pointed out to me a few years agoโresult in a preoccupation with authenticity?
Because without shared culture, spontaneous and nondeliberate utterances are the only ones you can trust.
Reminder that using public office for personal enrichment is far-and-away the global and historical norm, and only a handful of societies have ever effectively enforced norms against it.
Very cool paper that shows the modern formula for having high status tastes: you like every genre (rap and classic rock, comedy & horror) but you only like very particular โhigh consecrationโ examples (Kendrick Lamar & Bob Dylan). The chart of consecrated media is worth a look!
The replies are taking this to be a "notice the beauty in every moment" sentiment. Which is fine too, but more importantly, grocery stores are legitimately staggering feats of the division of labor!
I had a french professor who once said if you just did something like going to the supermarket and experienced it fully without the goggles of habit and catรฉgories you would go crazy with pure sense and joy. I think about it all the time. In a way this is all for him.
@VitalikButerin
You *should* be able to do this from the Las Vegas airport based on distance, except that they seem to have deliberately designed it to be impossible to exit on foot (I did it anyway)
It's easy to come up with a story for why humans have culture and extensive cooperation. It's a lot harder to come up with a story that also explains why nobody else does.
Finally turned this thread into a proper blogpost. Why should we prefer high-status to low-status entertainment (besides the status benefits), if they're both "unnatural" hyperstimuli?
Because "Ineffability renders hyperstimulus safe."
The "wait what" moment 3/4 of the way down this thread is a good illustration of the point that the highest and most valorized human experiences are just controlled hyperstimulus, and just a hair's breadth away from addiction and vice.
Real blackpill over the last several years is that there is literally no limit to the antisocial behavior that polite society is willing to excuse now.
"Inside and Outside Perspectives on Institutions: An Economic Theory of the Noble Lie" โย now up at the Journal of Contextual Economics.
Particularly proud of this one since it's the most direct statement of what I might call my social philosophy. (๐งต)
Crucial knowledge for improving parent-child relations.
Kids, your parents didn't traumatize you and you can't blame your bad personality on them.
Parents, your kids don't reflect badly on your parenting, so chill out, and don't be embarrassed to get them the help they need.
Parenting practices seem to have little or no impact on children's personalities, contrary to some of the best-known theories in psychology. (Longitudinal study; N = 3,880)
"Do what you love" was never very generalizable advice. But the backlash โ which amounts to "loving what you do perpetuates toxic signaling games" โ is stifling.
If you don't love talking about social science, maybe social science isn't for you. (2/7)
But we've become allergic to saying "maybe this field isn't for you" out loud. So the signaling looks "toxic", we cut down the tall poppies to create space for careerists, squander the complementarities, and waste huge amounts of human potential. (5/7)
@MJtheProphet
@ZachWeiner
As a trained economist, I'd reverse this. Trained economists know better than to think they can do this, so you'd have to attribute the attempt to malice or grift rather than just ignorance.
Didn't realize how strong the Mises-Weber connection was. 1st part of Human Action basically just recapitulates 1st part of Economy and Society, and Weber cites Mises' Theory of Money and Credit as "the formulation of monetary theory which has been most acceptable to the author"
@AnechoicMedia_
There's definitely a "just counterintuitive enough to be plausible" sweet spot for claims like this, probably because getting to do a "well akshully" is a huge dopamine rush even for midwits.
@elonmusk
I will resubscribe if and when user timeline API endpoint access (even heavily rate-limited is ok!) becomes available with Twitter Blue or the free API tier. $100/month is not feasible for that.
Lamberg-Karlovsky: All the Bronze Age empires brought writing with them as they conquered large areas of central Asia. Not a single conquered settlement kept writing after the empires fell.
Okay. So we all understand that the Supreme Court has become a right-wing ideological political institution under Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, Barrett, Kavanaugh, & Roberts. They're for sale & illegitimate. Now, we have to beat them in the executive branch & the legislature.โฆ
Stats exam question:
You're watching traffic court. You notice Group A defendants got caught speeding avg 10mph, and Group B avg. 25mph. Which of the following can you infer?
a) Group B is worse at driving
b) Cops are biased against group B
c) Cops are biased in favor of group B
I wrote about GPT-3 for
@Quillette
.
Is there a difference between human intelligence and GPT output? Yes โ but humans do fall easily into the trap of building self-referential text models, and in that respect, ideological thinking is strikingly GPT-like.
@wil_da_beast630
Usually "ha ha this is just like Idiocracy" comparisons are tiresome and self-indulgent, but man this one is so on the nose I'm gagging from the fart smell.
Good advanced econ exam q:
When an asset (a house, BTC, etc.) appreciates in a boom market, its owner becomes wealthier. To what extent is this a transfer of wealth (and if so from whom), versus the creation of wealth (and if so how)?
I'll post my suggested answer tomorrow.
@Pontifex
Bit embarrassing that the head of a religious order with a 1,600 year old tradition of Just War Theory instead decides to invoke 120 year old humanitarian law, tbh
Similar to how "Horseshoe theory" means the extremes look the same to a centrist, I propose "Hudson theory" to refer to extremists who lump in centrists with people of the opposite extreme.
@whstancil
You can't have it both ways. If you're willing to dilute the main signal of competence with afmt. action, you've gotta accept that people rationally rely on other signals. It's a statistical argument, not a reflection on any individual.
I hope for AA supporters with enough sense to recognize the rationality of how people respond to it, and AA opponents with enough decency not to indulge in mean-spirited drive-bys on new graduates.
Occupy those missing moods.
More evidence against major long-run after-effects of oppression: areas with Soviet gulags that had more high-human-capital political prisoners are more prosperous today.
@wanyeburkett
Tbh I love these sorts of questions. I can stand in front of students all day trying to communicate a mental model, but it's not gonna stick unless they expose and I can directly address whatever jury-rigged mental model they've been using.
Teachers build mental models out of preexisting mental models in students' heads.
The hardest part of this is not knowing what kind of raw material you have work with. Prereqs help, but not infallibly.
"Ask questions until you understand" helps with this.