At 62%, the proportion who in today's
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll think that the government is handling
#Brexit
badly is at its highest level since the unveiling of the trade agreement a year ago.
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight
#Brexit
right 38 (-3); wrong 51 (+2). Fwork 11-12.11 (ch since 4-5.11). Record high % wrong and record high lead of wrong over right.
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight
#Brexit
right 35 (-3); wrong 53 (+2). Fwork 13-14.7 (ch since 6-7.7). Record low % right & record high % wrong.
New
@ComRes
poll for
@BrexitE
.
#EURef2
vote intentions: Remain 52 (+7); Leave 38 (-1). Fwork 16.4 (ch since 15-17.3). Largest Remain lead in any
@ComRes
poll.
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight
#Brexit
right 38 (-1); wrong 50 (+2). Fwork 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Today's
@Omnisis
poll moves our post-
#Brexit
poll of polls to 'In EU' 55 (+1); 'Out EU' 45 (-1). First time the lead of 'In' over 'Out' has been this large.
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight
#Brexit
right 39 (-2); wrong 49 (+2). Fwork 4-5.8.20 (ch since 30-31.7.20). Largest lead for wrong over right since Aug. 2019.
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight
#Brexit
right 39 (-2); wrong 48 (+1). Fwork 2-3.9 (ch since 25-26.8). Largest lead of wrong over right since Dec. 2020.
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight
#Brexit
right 40 (-3); wrong 47 (+3). Fwork 28-29.5.17. Record wrong lead - previous high was 6 pts in Jan.
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight
#Brexit
right 38 (-2); wrong 49 (+2). Fwork 12-13.10 (ch since 15-16.9). Largest lead for 'wrong' over 'right' since the EU trade deal was struck.
In today's
@OpiniumResearch
poll, % of Lab Remainers who'd vote Lab again down from 88% to 82%. Switching to LibDems up from 5% to 10%. Meanwhile, % of Lab Leavers still backing Lab down from 87% to 79%. Switching to Con or UKIP up from 7% to 14%. Being squeezed from both sides?
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight
#Brexit
right 37 (-2); wrong 50 (+2). Fwork 10-11.11. (Ch since 3-4.11). Highest lead for 'wrong' over 'right' since November last year (before conclusion of trade deal) .
Latest
@YouGov
Eurotrack poll:
#EURef2
vi: Join EU 45 (+4); Stay Out 36 (-2). Fwork 9-10.6 (ch since 16-17.5). Record lead of Join vs Stay Out in this
@YouGov
series.
Today's Observer story that over 100 seats have sung from Leave to Remain not surprising. Analysis based on a 5% national swing from Leave to Remain. And (according to
@chrishanretty
) there were 115 seats where Leave won between 50% and 55% in 2016.
Latest
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll. In hindsight
#Brexit
right 40 (-2); wrong; 47 (+1). Equals record high wrong lead (recorded in May). Polling all/mostly pre-
#Salzburg
???
Today's
@YouGov
poll suggests 11% of Leave voters now think that
#Brexit
is wrong, and only 3% of Remain voters that it is right - a much bigger gap than previously. But what is still equally important is that 48% of 2016 non-voters say it is wrong and only 18%, right.
4 polls taken since 5.9 by companies that also polled in late August
Average NOW: Con 32.5, Lab 24.5, LD 18, Brexit 14
Average of last reading in August: Con 33, Lab 24, LD 19, Brexit 14.
Seemingly, last week's
#Brexit
drama has not (so far) changed the electoral contest.
Today's
@YouGov
poll suggests mostly middle class voters have left Con.
Among ABC1s, Con now at 33 - down 5 on average of previous 3 polls. Among C2DEs Con 41 - no change.
Lab now on 38 (+5) among ABC1s, but 31 (no change) among C2DEs.
'Corruption' a middle class issue?
Report of new
@YouGov
poll of
#Euref2
vote intentions for
@peoplesvote_uk
. Remain 56; Leave 44. Fwork 16.1. Represents 2% swing to Remain since 21.12.18 to 4.1.19.
Note that today's
@ComRes
poll does not ask respondents to choose between Remain & Leave but between 2 Leave options (with/without a deal) and 1 Remain one.
Key reason for swing to Remain in latest
@Survation
poll is a rise to 93% in % of Remain voters who say they'd vote Remain again. At 87% equivalent Leave % little changed. Meanwhile 60% of 2016 non-voters back Remain, just 19% Leave.
#Brexit
Report of new
@YouGov
poll for
@peoplesvote_uk
of
#euref2
vote intentions: Remain 55; Leave 45 (excl DKs). Represents just a 1 point swing to Remain since 14-15.11, but highest Remain vote yet in a
@YouGov
poll.
Latest
@BMGResearch
poll of
#euref2
vote intentions, for which tables first released y'day: Remain 56 (+2 on Nov.); Leave 44 (-2). Record high Remain figure for the company.
In these 11 Cons constituencies Comres polled 4110 voters
1942 (47%) votes Remain, 1784 (43%) Leave, 283 (7%) DNV
Or 52:48 Remain excl DNV
But “Referendum Voting Intention” now among the same voters in these seats
2195 (53%) Remain. 1692 (41%) Leave. 73 DK (2%)
Or 56:44 Remain
Most of the swing since June towards
#Brexit
not going well has occurred among Leave voters.
% Well in June 62; Now 54.
% Badly June 28; Now 37
Among Remain voters
% Well June 18; Now 16
% Badly June 76; Now 80.
@Opinium
@ObserverUK
Today's
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll shows Remainers and Leavers regard the economic consequences of a no deal
#Brexit
very differently. 71% of Remainers think it would seriously damage the economy, 70% of Leavers that it would not.
It may be more illuminating to compare tonight's
@YouGov
poll with the position just before
#Chequers
. Compared with last 3
@YouGov
polls before then, the changes are Con -3; Lab -4; LD +1; UKIP +4
Today's
@DeltapollUK
poll for
@DailyMailUK
:
#EURef2
vote intentions: Remain 54 (+2); Leave 46 (-2). Fwork 28-30.3.19 (ch since 21-23.2.19). Record high % Remain for the company.
According
@YouGov
's latest poll, fewer voters currently think the economy is better off as a result of
#Brexit
than expected it to be at any stage in the company's polling on the issue between 2016 and 2018. &
Today's
@Kantar
#Brexit
Barometer poll - Remain 44 (+8); Leave 35 (+2)(Fwork 10-14.1.19) - moves our
#euref2
poll of polls to Remain 54 (+1); Leave 46 (-1). First time Remain been put that far ahead.
Note also I have tweeted some stats that challenge the
@LibDems
claim that
#TivertonandHoniton
result was the safest seat ever to be lost in a by-election. I take the view that the claims and performances of all the parties should be subjected to critical scrutiny.
Labour not happy at John Curtice pouring piss on the Wakefield result.
"People here are furious about him yet again setting the narrative totally unchallenged. There should have been an internal inquiry at the Beeb after his nonsense during the locals & now he’s at it again."
Labour not happy at John Curtice pouring piss on the Wakefield result.
"People here are furious about him yet again setting the narrative totally unchallenged. There should have been an internal inquiry at the Beeb after his nonsense during the locals & now he’s at it again."
No obvious sign in polls that
@Conservatives
have especially lost ground among Remainers. In last 4 polls where can do calculation, 67% of current Tories are current Leavers, 27% current Remainers. Equivalent figures for 2017 Tories are 66% and 26%.
I see the Sun’s story on Tory remainers abandoning the party is getting wide coverage. Might have come as less of a shock but for the widespread belief that only Leave voters would switch parties, reinforced by endless vox pops with/anecdotes about Leave voters in Leave seats.
In recent weeks the % of Brits who think that the Conservative Party is the 'best party' on Britain's exit from the EU has fallen to 19%
The lowest on record
If people only tweeted poll results with a link to a publicly available original source, the risk would be much reduced. Doing so is, after all, a basic academic discipline.
This Tory tally is just 9 seats below what you obtain from applying a uniform movement model to
@YouGov
's poll tonight. Figure should be a little lower given likely inflation of
@Conservatives
' lead because
@brexitparty_uk
not standing in Tory seats.
BREAKING: First big election model seat projection predicts Tory majority of 48
Con 349
Lab 213
LD 14
SNP 49
Plaid 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)
Re headline on today's
@Telegraph
's report of
@ComRes
@BrexitE
poll: 'Public swinging behind no-deal'. Question wasn't asked in same way as last time (in Jan.) so is a debatable basis for making any claim about change. Cf. &
Note that, at 29%, the combined vote for
@brexitparty_uk
&
@UKIP
in today's
@YouGov
@thetimes
poll is the same as last week. What has primarily happened in the last 7 days is that the existing 'Eurosceptic' vote has consolidated behind one party.
Note that polls of
@theresa_may
's
#Brexit
deal vs Remain consistently find higher support for Remain (after DKs are excluded) than those that invite people to choose between Remain and Leave. Main reason is that some Leave voters say DK.