What UK Thinks: EU Profile
What UK Thinks: EU

@whatukthinks

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Official Twitter account for . Analysis of polls on #Brexit before and since #euref . Run by @Natcen . Tweets by John Curtice.

Joined May 2015
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 39 (-2); wrong 50 (+4). Fwork 23-24.9 (ch since 8-9.9). Record lead for 'wrong' over right'.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
At 62%, the proportion who in today's @YouGov @thetimes poll think that the government is handling #Brexit badly is at its highest level since the unveiling of the trade agreement a year ago.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 38 (-3); wrong 51 (+2). Fwork 11-12.11 (ch since 4-5.11). Record high % wrong and record high lead of wrong over right.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 35 (-3); wrong 53 (+2). Fwork 13-14.7 (ch since 6-7.7). Record low % right & record high % wrong.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
New @ComRes poll for @BrexitE . #EURef2 vote intentions: Remain 52 (+7); Leave 38 (-1). Fwork 16.4 (ch since 15-17.3). Largest Remain lead in any @ComRes poll.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 38 (-1); wrong 50 (+2). Fwork 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Latest @YouGov @Thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 38 (+2); wrong 51 (+1). First time 'wrong' above 50%.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Today's @Omnisis poll moves our post- #Brexit poll of polls to 'In EU' 55 (+1); 'Out EU' 45 (-1). First time the lead of 'In' over 'Out' has been this large.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 39 (-2); wrong 49 (+2). Fwork 4-5.8.20 (ch since 30-31.7.20). Largest lead for wrong over right since Aug. 2019.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Today's @Omnisis poll. Rejoin EU 47; Stay Out EU 33. 1st published reading. Fwork 6-7.10.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 39 (-2); wrong 48 (+1). Fwork 2-3.9 (ch since 25-26.8). Largest lead of wrong over right since Dec. 2020.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
6 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 40 (-3); wrong 47 (+3). Fwork 28-29.5.17. Record wrong lead - previous high was 6 pts in Jan.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 41 (-1); wrong 47 (+1). Fwork 25-26.8 (ch since 5-6.8).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 38 (-2); wrong 49 (+2). Fwork 12-13.10 (ch since 15-16.9). Largest lead for 'wrong' over 'right' since the EU trade deal was struck.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
New post on whether there has been a significant shift in public attitudes towards #Brexit .
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
In today's @OpiniumResearch poll, % of Lab Remainers who'd vote Lab again down from 88% to 82%. Switching to LibDems up from 5% to 10%. Meanwhile, % of Lab Leavers still backing Lab down from 87% to 79%. Switching to Con or UKIP up from 7% to 14%. Being squeezed from both sides?
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (-2); wrong 50 (+2). Fwork 10-11.11. (Ch since 3-4.11). Highest lead for 'wrong' over 'right' since November last year (before conclusion of trade deal) .
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
Latest @DeltapollUK @MoS_Politics poll. #EURef2 vote intentions (excl DK): Remain 54 (+4); Leave 46 (-4). Fwork 5-7.12 (ch since 28-30.11).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Today's @Survation poll moves our #EURef2 poll of polls to Remain 53 (+1), Leave 47 (-1).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
Catchup. September @YouGov Eurotrack poll. GB: Join EU 41 (n/c); stay out 39 (-2). First lead for 'Join' on this question since Jan. 21.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Latest @YouGov Eurotrack poll: #EURef2 vi: Join EU 45 (+4); Stay Out 36 (-2). Fwork 9-10.6 (ch since 16-17.5). Record lead of Join vs Stay Out in this @YouGov series.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 37 (-2); wrong 49 (n/c). Fwork 24-25.5 (ch since 18-19.5). % right equals record low previously obtained in Apr 22 & Nov. 21.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
6 years
Today's Observer story that over 100 seats have sung from Leave to Remain not surprising. Analysis based on a 5% national swing from Leave to Remain. And (according to @chrishanretty ) there were 115 seats where Leave won between 50% and 55% in 2016.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
The publication y'day of polls of #EURef2 vote intention by @Survation & @YouGov leaves our poll of polls unchanged on Remain 53, Leave 47. #Brexit .
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 38 (-1); wrong 50 (+1). Fwork 6-7.1.22 (ch since 19-20.12.21).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 34 (n/c); wrong 54 (+2). Fwork 20-21.10 (ch since 11-12.10). Record high 'wrong' figure.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Latest @YouGov poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 40 (-1) wrong 50 (+3). Fwork 28-29.8.19 (ch. since 27-28.8.19). Largest % wrong since January.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
6 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 40 (-2); wrong; 47 (+1). Equals record high wrong lead (recorded in May). Polling all/mostly pre- #Salzburg ???
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Today's @YouGov poll suggests 11% of Leave voters now think that #Brexit is wrong, and only 3% of Remain voters that it is right - a much bigger gap than previously. But what is still equally important is that 48% of 2016 non-voters say it is wrong and only 18%, right.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
4 polls taken since 5.9 by companies that also polled in late August Average NOW: Con 32.5, Lab 24.5, LD 18, Brexit 14 Average of last reading in August: Con 33, Lab 24, LD 19, Brexit 14. Seemingly, last week's #Brexit drama has not (so far) changed the electoral contest.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
Latest @YouGov Eurotrack poll: Would vote to join EU; 42 (n/c) Vote to remain outside 41 (+1). Fwork 21-22.5.20 (ch since 4-5.2.20).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
Today's @YouGov poll suggests mostly middle class voters have left Con. Among ABC1s, Con now at 33 - down 5 on average of previous 3 polls. Among C2DEs Con 41 - no change. Lab now on 38 (+5) among ABC1s, but 31 (no change) among C2DEs. 'Corruption' a middle class issue?
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Report of new @YouGov poll of #Euref2 vote intentions for @peoplesvote_uk . Remain 56; Leave 44. Fwork 16.1. Represents 2% swing to Remain since 21.12.18 to 4.1.19.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Note that today's @ComRes poll does not ask respondents to choose between Remain & Leave but between 2 Leave options (with/without a deal) and 1 Remain one.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
@whatukthinks Latest @YouGov @TheTimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 41 (n/c); wrong 47 (+2). Fwork 15-16.7 (ch since 7-8.7).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Key reason for swing to Remain in latest @Survation poll is a rise to 93% in % of Remain voters who say they'd vote Remain again. At 87% equivalent Leave % little changed. Meanwhile 60% of 2016 non-voters back Remain, just 19% Leave. #Brexit
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Report of new @YouGov poll for @peoplesvote_uk of #euref2 vote intentions: Remain 55; Leave 45 (excl DKs). Represents just a 1 point swing to Remain since 14-15.11, but highest Remain vote yet in a @YouGov poll.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
1 year
Today's @Omnisis poll of #EURef2 vi shifts our post- #Brexit poll of polls to 'In EU' 59 (+1); 'Out EU' 41 (-1). Record high for 'In EU'.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
6 years
This 4% swing to Remain since 2016 is in line with current GB/UK-wide polling of #EURef2 vote intentions
@faisalislam
Faisal Islam
6 years
In these 11 Cons constituencies Comres polled 4110 voters 1942 (47%) votes Remain, 1784 (43%) Leave, 283 (7%) DNV Or 52:48 Remain excl DNV But “Referendum Voting Intention” now among the same voters in these seats 2195 (53%) Remain. 1692 (41%) Leave. 73 DK (2%) Or 56:44 Remain
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 39 (-1); wrong 49 (+1). Fwork 19-20.12 (ch since 14-15.12).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
Most of the swing since June towards #Brexit not going well has occurred among Leave voters. % Well in June 62; Now 54. % Badly June 28; Now 37 Among Remain voters % Well June 18; Now 16 % Badly June 76; Now 80. @Opinium @ObserverUK
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
7 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. #Brexit right 44 (-2); wrong 45 (+2). 3rd time wrong ahead.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Today's @YouGov @thetimes poll shows Remainers and Leavers regard the economic consequences of a no deal #Brexit very differently. 71% of Remainers think it would seriously damage the economy, 70% of Leavers that it would not.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Latest @YouGov Eurotrack poll. Rejoin EU 44 (+2); Stay Out 36 (-3). Fwork 10-11.2 (ch since 17-18.1). #Brexit
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll: In hindsight #Brexit right 41 (-1); wrong 48 (+1). Fwork 10-11.4.19. (ch since 2-3.4.19).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
6 months
Latest @YouGov @TheTimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 33 (n/c); wrong 57 (+3). Fwork 7-8.11 (ch since 31.10-1.11).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
The release of the latest @Panelbase poll of #EURef2 vote intentions leaves our poll of polls unchanged on Remain 53, Leave 47.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
1 year
Following the snap post-Budget @Omnisis poll, our post- #Brexit poll of polls now stands at 'In EU' 59 (+1), 'Out EU' 41 (-1).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
See also this from the most recent @ComRes poll. Is 'freedom of movement' more popular than 'immigration'?
@YouGov
YouGov
5 years
The majority of Brits (56%) want to keep freedom of movement with the EU after Brexit
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
One stark indication of the @Conservatives troubles in this evening's flurry of polls. Both @YouGov and @Survation have @UKLabour neck neck with them among Leave voters.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
8 years
Latest @ICMResearch #euref tracker. Remain 49 (-1), Leave 51 (+1). Again no @Potus effect. Fwork 22-24.4.16
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Latest poll by @Survation for @MoS_Politics . #EURef2 vote intentions: Remain 54 (+4); Leave 46 (-4). Fwork 19-20.6.19 (ch since 23.5.19).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
6 years
It may be more illuminating to compare tonight's @YouGov poll with the position just before #Chequers . Compared with last 3 @YouGov polls before then, the changes are Con -3; Lab -4; LD +1; UKIP +4
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
New @Survation @DailyMailUK poll. #EURef2 vote intentions: Remain 54 (+2); Leave 46 (-2). Fwork 29-30.10.19 (ch since 17-18.10.19).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
5 polls of #ge19 vote intentions conducted 4-7/12/19: Average %: Con 43; Lab 33; LD 12; Brexit 3. Same 5 polls, 27-30/11/19: Con 44; Lab 33; LD 13; Brexit 3
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Today's @DeltapollUK poll for @DailyMailUK : #EURef2 vote intentions: Remain 54 (+2); Leave 46 (-2). Fwork 28-30.3.19 (ch since 21-23.2.19). Record high % Remain for the company.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
According @YouGov 's latest poll, fewer voters currently think the economy is better off as a result of #Brexit than expected it to be at any stage in the company's polling on the issue between 2016 and 2018. &
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Today's @Kantar #Brexit Barometer poll - Remain 44 (+8); Leave 35 (+2)(Fwork 10-14.1.19) - moves our #euref2 poll of polls to Remain 54 (+1); Leave 46 (-1). First time Remain been put that far ahead.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Latest @YouGov Eurotrack poll. Remain 47 (+3), Leave 41 (-1). Fwork 8-9.10.19 (ch since 12-13.5.19).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
Note also I have tweeted some stats that challenge the @LibDems claim that #TivertonandHoniton result was the safest seat ever to be lost in a by-election. I take the view that the claims and performances of all the parties should be subjected to critical scrutiny.
@KevinASchofield
Kevin Schofield
2 years
Labour not happy at John Curtice pouring piss on the Wakefield result. "People here are furious about him yet again setting the narrative totally unchallenged. There should have been an internal inquiry at the Beeb after his nonsense during the locals & now he’s at it again."
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
2 years
The criteria that I was using to judge the parties' by-election performances were set out in this piece published well before the polls closed.
@KevinASchofield
Kevin Schofield
2 years
Labour not happy at John Curtice pouring piss on the Wakefield result. "People here are furious about him yet again setting the narrative totally unchallenged. There should have been an internal inquiry at the Beeb after his nonsense during the locals & now he’s at it again."
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
1 month
Latest @YouGov Eurotrack poll. #EURef2 vi: Join EU 49 (+2); Stay Out 30 (-2). Fwork 12-13.3 (ch since 15-16.2).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
3 years
Latest @YouGov Eurotrack poll. Join EU 41 (n/c); Stay Out 37 (-2). Fwork 12-13.10. (ch since 15-16.9).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 41 (+1); wrong 49 (+2). Fwork 4-5.11 (ch since 28-29.10).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
No obvious sign in polls that @Conservatives have especially lost ground among Remainers. In last 4 polls where can do calculation, 67% of current Tories are current Leavers, 27% current Remainers. Equivalent figures for 2017 Tories are 66% and 26%.
@robfordmancs
Rob Ford
5 years
I see the Sun’s story on Tory remainers abandoning the party is getting wide coverage. Might have come as less of a shock but for the widespread belief that only Leave voters would switch parties, reinforced by endless vox pops with/anecdotes about Leave voters in Leave seats.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
6 years
Indeed - the most recent decline is post-Chequers. But it is @UKIP not @UKLabour in whom confidence has increased.
@GoodwinMJ
Matt Goodwin
6 years
In recent weeks the % of Brits who think that the Conservative Party is the 'best party' on Britain's exit from the EU has fallen to 19% The lowest on record
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
If people only tweeted poll results with a link to a publicly available original source, the risk would be much reduced. Doing so is, after all, a basic academic discipline.
@MattSingh_
Matt Singh
5 years
I see fake polls are now a thing. Don't be a dick.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
This Tory tally is just 9 seats below what you obtain from applying a uniform movement model to @YouGov 's poll tonight. Figure should be a little lower given likely inflation of @Conservatives ' lead because @brexitparty_uk not standing in Tory seats.
@ShippersUnbound
Tim Shipman
4 years
BREAKING: First big election model seat projection predicts Tory majority of 48 Con 349 Lab 213 LD 14 SNP 49 Plaid 5 Green 1 Speaker 1 Datapraxis ran 270,000 YouGov interviews through their own predictive MRP model (like the ones that predicted the last election)
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Today's @YouGov poll for @thetimes is the first to put @LibDems (on 28%) ahead of @UKLabour (24%) in the #EP2019 vote intentions of those who voted Remain in the #EURef .
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Re headline on today's @Telegraph 's report of @ComRes @BrexitE poll: 'Public swinging behind no-deal'. Question wasn't asked in same way as last time (in Jan.) so is a debatable basis for making any claim about change. Cf. &
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
1 year
How support for being In or Out of the EU has changed since the UK left the singe market. #Brexit . Analysis at
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
8 years
Latest @ICMResearch #euref weekly tracker (excl. DKs). Remain 49; Leave 51. Fwork 6-8.5.16. No change.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
6 years
Latest @YouGov Eurotrack survey. Remain 46 (+3 on Nov.); Leave 42 (-1). Fwork 18-22.1.18
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
New post on whether voters - of all persuasions - simply want 'to get #Brexit done'. #CPC19
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Average 4 #ge19 polls conducted 6-9.11 by @PanelbaseMD @OpiniumResearch @YouGov @DeltapollUK : Con 40/Lab 28.5/LD 16/Brexit 7.5. Same 4 polls 30.10-2.11: Con 40/Lab 27.5/LD 15/Brexit 9.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Today's @Survation @DailyMailUK poll (after excluding D/Ks): #EURef2 vote intentions: Remain 50 (-1); Leave 50 (+1). Fwork 22.5.19 (ch since 17.5.19).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Note that, at 29%, the combined vote for @brexitparty_uk & @UKIP in today's @YouGov @thetimes poll is the same as last week. What has primarily happened in the last 7 days is that the existing 'Eurosceptic' vote has consolidated behind one party.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
4 years
Today's @Survation poll is the 7th in a row - from 4 different companies - to put Yes ahead in #indyref2 vote intentions.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
1 year
Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 32 (-3); wrong 56 (+4). A record low and high respectively.
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
A long(ish) read for the weekend. New post on the lessons and implications of the #EP2019 result in Britain for #Brexit .
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Today's @OpiniumResearch poll for @ObserverUK recorded a marked decline in support for no deal - first poll to do so. (1/2).
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
6 years
New @BMGResearch @Independent poll. Remain 51 (+2 on Sept); Leave 41 (-4). Report at
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@whatukthinks
What UK Thinks: EU
5 years
Note that polls of @theresa_may 's #Brexit deal vs Remain consistently find higher support for Remain (after DKs are excluded) than those that invite people to choose between Remain and Leave. Main reason is that some Leave voters say DK.
@BestForBritain
Best for Britain
5 years
Latest poll indicates that 61% of the population would vote to remain in the EU vs 39% for Theresa May’s deal. Put that on a piece of paper.
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