ted @tedtalksmacro Twitter profile

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ted

2 months

My free newsletter is back, drop your email address at Notes most days on everything from macro to ETF flows to altcoins 👊

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ted

@tedtalksmacro

2 years

Unfortunately it was the boy who cried wolf at the time, but @Bitboy_Crypto was right all along.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

The Chinese central bank injected $92bn USD into the market on Friday! This easily outpaces the Fed’s current QT.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

CZ hasn’t even started deploying funds yet.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

After being down close to $2bln at the bear market low, @saylor is now in profit on his #BTC exposure.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Bitcoin is becoming increasingly correlated with Chinese stocks (which are entering a bull market) 🇨🇳

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

1/ There's a new player in town! China's central bank performed it's single-largest liquidity injection on Friday, to help support their economy out of historically depressed levels. + there's more to come 🇨🇳

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@tedtalksmacro

6 months

There's 4,500 BTC in bids at $12,000 ($54M USD) 🤣

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Saylor is down almost $2,000,000,000 USD and yet he continues to add to his #BTC position 🤯

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

#Bitcoin is 6% away from @saylor ’s breakeven price ($29,817)

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

Ethereum doing ~1M daily transactions Solana doing ~29M daily transactions $SOL $ETH

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Unofficial quantitative easing begins on Monday. This is so bullish.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

7 themes for 2023 ↓

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

The next dip will make you want to quit crypto… but this is where you buy

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@tedtalksmacro

11 months

SEC says spot bitcoin filings are inadequate - WSJ But BlackRock can still refile for the BTC spot ETF... this news is noise IMO. Buying the dip. The important wording here: "The SEC told the exchanges that it returned the filings because they didn’t name the spot bitcoin

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Chinese central bank liquidity injections and #Bitcoin

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@tedtalksmacro

16 days

Amazing, @crossbordercap 's 65-month liquidity cycle theory, perfectly synchronised with crypto liquidity. The next cycle high is due in June 2026...

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

#Bitcoin 's 2023 candle will look something like this imo 🔮

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@tedtalksmacro

9 months

Europe's first spot #Bitcoin ETF listed in Amsterdam today 🇳🇱 Trading under the ticker $BCOIN, investors will pay a 1.5% annual management fee. Fidelity Digital Assets are the custodians.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

Continually printing $LUNA in an attempt to save a fundamentally flawed stablecoin will inevitably send both UST and LUNA to 0. Abandoning UST and saving the protocol makes sense imo, the only thing of value right now is the L1, UST is just bad debt.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 months

While Bitcoin ranges, crypto liquidity has impulsed higher (again). Meaning that there's more firepower to send BTC and alts much higher from here, buckle up.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Just like every other #Bitcoin cycle, the current has it's nuances. However, I'd think we're currently trading in an environment akin to September - November 2019. Fed in 2019: - Cut rates 3x by October - Began expanding balance sheet in September Fed in 2023: - Begin expanding

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

If FTX is truly solvent and it's all just FUD (highly likely imo). I'd bet they are preparing for the mother of all short squeezes in the coming days.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

1/ FTX vs BINANCE CZ and Sam have been going back and forth on Twitter over the past 48 hours, so what has happened and how did we get to this point

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Phase 2 soon.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 months

The first $1B inflow day. You are simply not bullish enough…

Farside Investors

@FarsideUK

2 months

Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$ million) - 2024-03-12 TOTAL NET FLOW: 1045 (Provisional data) IBIT: 849 FBTC: 51.6 BITB: 24.6 ARKB: 93 BTCO: -19.7 EZBC: 0 BRRR: 39.6 HODL: 82.9 BTCW: 3 GBTC: -79 For all the data & disclaimers visit:

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

FOMC scenarios. 50bps hike (outlier): short risk assets, bear trend resumes. 25bps hike (most likely): Nothing burger, the dot plot + press conference dictate the market's move. Pause (second most likely): Get very long #Bitcoin Cut (outlier): Mortgage the house and buy BTC

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

Blackrock are recommending that investors make a 28% allocation to BTC in their portfolio. This came out of a recent Blackrock client event (according to @Swan ). The event was focused on promoting $IBIT - their spot BTC ETF.

The Old Taylor

@The_Old_Taylor

3 months

Blackrock Private Bitcoin Event key takeaways H/T @DzambhalaHODL 👀👀

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Steady lads. ~$400M in stablecoin inflows detected 👀

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@tedtalksmacro

2 months

FOMC summary - 3x rate cuts happening this year despite inflation remaining above 2% (Fed expect core PCE at 2.6%) - Growth outlook upgraded Send it.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

The Altcoin market is setup for a +50% move. TOTAL3 (total crypto market capitalistation minus BTC & ETH) has printed it's first macro higher low (HL) since November '21... Ethereum is likely to follow the lead of BTC and consolidate over the coming days/weeks as it approaches

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

1/ BTC has been around since 2009, and so far we can say that #Bitcoin bear markets typically end: 🔻 After price moves -85% off the previous bull market high. ⏱ ~470 days before the next halving [A thread on a macro bottom + new bull cycle]

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

Everyone losing their mind over Michael Burry selling off his portfolio. But it's data from the second quarter! Meaning he sold the bottom lmao

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

Tuesday was the largest daily net inflow to spot Bitcoin ETFs thus far. +631M USD 🤯

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

The narrative for a new #Bitcoin bull cycle: - Fed commence unofficial QE, will last until March 2024 - Bitcoin halving is ~420 days away - Major institutions + retail traders have already capitulated - These bailouts prove that banks are not efficient self-custody of funds

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@tedtalksmacro

2 months

- FOMC done (and risk-on) - $1.2T USD in government spend approved Larry and friends show up to bid this week imo.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

Alameda gameplan headed into the unlock of $845MM USD $SOL (in about 21hrs from now) is likely: send USDC to CEX --> set spot $SOL offers higher up --> use USDC to giga long the perp --> force short open interest to close out --> fill spot offers. Rinse and repeat.

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

$IBIT now has $5.45Bln in it's spot Bitcoin ETF. This number was $4.7Bln only yesterday... +$750M USD in net flow just for BlackRock TODAY 🤯

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

CPI gameplan for #Bitcoin Above 5.5% --> $25,000 (4% probability) 5.3% to 5.5%--> $26,500 (25% probability) 5.0% to 5.2% --> $28,500 (50% probability) 4.7% to 4.9% --> $29,000 (20% probability) 4.5% or lower --> $30,000+ (1% probability) *Probabilities according to JPMorgan

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@tedtalksmacro

4 months

Grayscale selling will exhaust over the coming months, then you've got: April - BTC halving May - Spot ETH ETF decision June - altcoin ETF speculation (if ETH is approved) This, alongside active spot BTC ETFs. The next parabolic leg higher for crypto probably comes mid-2024.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 month

The market has gifted us with a beautiful reset in trader positioning for Bitcoin. OI weighted funding turned negative for the first time since October 2023... That was before Bitcoin ran from 27k to 46k without any meaningful dip.

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@tedtalksmacro

5 months

Powell today: 'We are near or are at peak rates' If rates have peaked, so too has the US dollar. If the US dollar has peaked, risk assets have bottomed. If risk assets have bottomed, so has crypto. Buckle up.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Biggest bull trap I've ever seen.

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

Large BTC spot premium over at Coinbase. The big boys are buying.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

You wanted institutional money to flow into crypto, so don’t complain when you get institutional price action.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 months

Fund inflows like we have never seen before. It makes 2020 look small... price will continue to catch up over the coming months. The steady grind to 100k is underway #BTC Historically, when these flows peak, theres 2-3 months to GTFO of the market.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

#Bitcoin is doing it's best to advertise to those who'd want to enter + hold for the next cycle higher. On the weekly chart, it's printed it's first higher highs (HH) since November '21 and first higher low (HL) since January '22. Traders now have clear invalidation and can cut

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@tedtalksmacro

6 months

The best part about this move higher in crypto is that liquidity hasn't even returned yet.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Nearly half of the Fed’s quantitative tightening effort has been wiped out in a single week.

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@tedtalksmacro

8 months

China's central bank continues to stimulate 🇨🇳 Reverse repo injections at levels not seen since 2020

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

- Hong Kong opens for crypto trading on Thursday June 1st. - US Debt ceiling raise becomes official sometime early this week. - AI narrative only grows stronger by the day. - Bitcoin head and shoulders sellers are now well underwater, stops within reach. Enjoy!

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

#BTC bottom could be in.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Headline US CPI is expected to come in +6.2% YoY on Tuesday. Truflation are expecting headline US CPI @ 5.8% YoY, which is significantly lower than consensus. They've been quite good recently 👀

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

The Fed has paused rate hikes (3) times since 2000. 2023 will be the 4th...

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@tedtalksmacro

10 months

10,000 #BTC in open interest added in the past 12 hours which equates to ~$300M USD.

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@tedtalksmacro

7 days

As for crypto liquidity. It's reached positive territory again after ~5 weeks...

ted

@tedtalksmacro

7 days

Fed liquidity has been on the rise.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

The Chinese Central Bank are adding liquidity again. Largest injections via reverse repo in a month.

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@tedtalksmacro

11 months

Still struggling to see the light? Let me break it down for you: - Today the SEC just got a slap in the face with regard to the ideology that all altcoins are 'unregistered securities' - The Fed are close to pivoting away from their most aggressive tightening regime in history,

ted

@tedtalksmacro

1 year

17/ It's just a matter of 'is this time different?' 🤔 Although the monpol may have become restrictive for now, the potential for macro-policy shifts in 2023 line up nicely with the BTC halving in 2024. Posing a two-pronged attack for the stubborn beras. In the meantime, I bid.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 months

Highest ever monthly close for Bitcoin.

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

Spot buyers pushing the market higher here. We like spot buyers.

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@tedtalksmacro

15 days

The US economy is bottoming / has bottomed, not peaked. Gear up!

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@tedtalksmacro

11 months

The US economy bottoms by the end of the year, and expands into 2024 and beyond 👇

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

Larry Fink is more of a BTC bull than what I'd previously thought, this interview with CNBC is worth the listen 👇 He says that BTC is a safe haven, and possibly a better investment vehicle than gold.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

BTC -3%, while Altcoins have barely budged. You don’t see this in a bear market!

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

Commencing in September, the Fed will withdraw up to $2.2M USD out of the market per MINUTE… Bullish USD, bearish risk assets

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@tedtalksmacro

8 months

Before I’d become optimistic about higher crypto prices again. - Binance + other CEX need to collapse or lose the majority of their market share. This is a key hurdle for the approval of spot ETFs (which I believe will catalyze new ATHs in BTC + ETH). To me it’s clear that a

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

Holy shit. Half a BILLION dollars flowed into Blackrock today.

Farside Investors

@FarsideUK

3 months

Bitcoin ETF Daily Flow Blackrock US$ Flow: 520.2 million This Tweet is auto generated For all the data and disclaimers visit:

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

We are going so much higher. Retail interest in crypto is still at the depths of the bear market 😅

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@tedtalksmacro

8 months

Solana at $23 is far superior to solana when it was trading >$200 Only a matter of time until you all realize it’s the superior L1.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

US tech stocks giving back all of the FOMC gains is an ominous sign for risk assets imo

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

1/ FOMC this week (Wednesday 18:00 UTC) There’s lots of talk about a ‘pivot’ or that ‘the Fed are breaking things and need to stop hiking.’ But, the data says otherwise and points to nothing other than hawkishness again this week. I’ll explain 👇

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@tedtalksmacro

6 months

Binance FUD put to rest Fed will end QT / tightening in the coming 6 months BTC halving months away BTC spot ETF approvals by end of January Forced sellers are out of tokens And mofos are waiting for 12k 🤣

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@tedtalksmacro

2 months

Checking in on crypto liquidity. Mania still a long way off yet...

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

Vanguard joining the spot Bitcoin ETF playground will be what sends BTC into healthy six digit price discovery.

Watcher.Guru

@WatcherGuru

3 months

JUST IN: Tim Buckley to step down as CEO of $7.2 trillion asset manager Vanguard. Last month, Vanguard banned all #Bitcoin ETFs from their platform.

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@tedtalksmacro

6 days

+$950M USD flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs this week! The boomer bid is back.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 months

$1.2 trillion funding bill approved by the Senate, the fiscal spending spree rolls on... Fed confirmed QT will slow soon. Rate cuts coming by year end. You need more BTC!

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@tedtalksmacro

4 months

This is going to be quite a long post, summing up 2023 and looking ahead to the themes to watch if you're investing in 2024 - so please bare with me 🫡 ✅ Summing up 2023 - China printed almost $1 trillion dollars but failed to push their economy out of the dumps - US

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

I've just published a new indicator, so that you can track how the Fed and the Treasury are providing liquidity to the US market! VERY strong correlation with #BTC + equities... Search for it on @tradingview --> 'USD Market Liquidity' 👊

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Takeaways from this Fed meeting: --> inflation remains enemy #1 --> Fed committed to higher rates, more increases likely --> Fed baseline is for no rate cuts in 2023 --> Banking stress is the equivalent of a rate hike --> Powell is the GOAT of press conferences --> we need to

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

There's now ~53.6M $SOL scheduled to be unstaked in 16hrs time from now, when the current epoch completes. That's potentially $1B USD (SOL @~19) worth of selling pressure.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

'Emergency cash' printing 3x the levels seen in 2020.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

According to JP Morgan, the Fed's emergency loan program may inject as much as $2 trillion of funds into the US banking system. Hold on to your hats.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

Bitcoiners idolize Michael Saylor, the same guy who lost $13B in the dotcom crash…

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@tedtalksmacro

7 days

+650M USD has flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs so far this week. Looking more and more like we're back.

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

Blackrock did $3.75B in volume today. Total volume for spot BTC ETFs today - $9.7B USD Records smashed, again 🤯

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@tedtalksmacro

7 months

BTC shorts obliterated. All of the OI built up earlier today ~$350MM USD, wiped in minutes.

ted

@tedtalksmacro

7 months

For those asking, it looks like shorts aping at the lows.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

China are adding liquidity again! Reverse repo injections ticking higher after two weeks of nothing...

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@tedtalksmacro

7 months

Michael Saylor is now in profit ~$620M USD on his BTC, after being down >$2B only just 10 months ago.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 months

Time to bid. FOMC hedging done, worst case priced. Only thing that happens from here is that those protective positions unwind into or on the event today. Bulls should step up here soon #BTC

ted

@tedtalksmacro

2 months

There it is. Great opportunity, however, remain cautious ahead of next week's FOMC. By the end of next week, there will have been great opportunities to ride this market higher IMO.

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@tedtalksmacro

5 months

A pump for ants. Throw away that bear market PTSD son, it's going to get fun in 2024.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

Spare a moment for the fallen brothers who survived the whole bear market to date, by remaining in stables. But only to have those stables frozen and potentially liquidated by leaving them on an exchange. Cruel game this, many lessons.

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@tedtalksmacro

4 days

Here are some important charts I'm watching right now. mainly focused around tradFi / crypto 'liquidity'. I think that all tell a similar story and point to the current bull cycle being far from over. - 65 month liquidity cycle: bottomed in Oct '23, now will expand and peak in

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

This was the single-largest injection on record, as China looks to support its economy out of depressed levels. More easing is likely.

China Ramps Up Economic Support With Biggest Ever Cash Injection

China ramped up its support for a nascent economic recovery, seeking to nip a squeeze in bank borrowing costs in the bud by injecting a record amount of cash to its financial system.

www.bloomberg.com

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

1/ While most data is lagging, what tends to lead price is monetary + fiscal liquidity... Let's quickly investigate whether liquidity has peaked or if new highs are to come👇

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

Consensus is that #Bitcoin dominance rips through 50, however... What if this time is no different to the others since 2021? It could be time for rotation into ALTS!!

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

Food for thought 👇 $SOL

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@tedtalksmacro

3 months

For context, this is the largest premium observed on this leg higher. Institutional FOMO.

ted

@tedtalksmacro

3 months

Large BTC spot premium over at Coinbase. The big boys are buying.

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@tedtalksmacro

2 years

/1 What I think about this week's FOMC statement and press conference (Wednesday 18:00 + 18:30 UTC) This event has the potential to change the course of risk markets ( #BTC etc.) from bear to bull, or to cause a capitulation event in risk... depending on the outcome

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

February FOMC meeting minutes: - ‘Almost all’ members agreed on a 25bps hike - ‘A few’ members favored raising by 50bps - All agreed more rate hikes are needed Crypto + equities have shrugged it off, for now!

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@tedtalksmacro

8 days

The next 1-2 months will be fun from here. Easy mode loading…

ted

@tedtalksmacro

20 days

Oil is telling you that there's lower inflation numbers to come shorter-term. This + today's employment data, point to easier conditions for risk assets over the coming quarter. If you navigated the past two months conserving capital, well done... it should get easier from here.

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@tedtalksmacro

1 year

#MtGox largest creditor will not sell it’s returned Bitcoin.

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