7 themes for 2023 ↓
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#1 is beginning to play out. 95% probability that Fed hikes by 25bps in February.
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#1 Fed hikes by 25bps in February ✅
Rounding this out: Fed delivered 'base case' --> BTC trading at 24k ☑️
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@CryptoDgr
CryptoDGR
1 year
@tedtalksmacro Excellent concise insight as always Ted
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@CryptoDgr Thank you mate 🤝
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@diaz_hon
Hon Diaz
1 year
@tedtalksmacro There is an error in 1. - should be 2022 instead of "trended lower into the end of 2023"
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@diaz_hon Oop, you know what I mean 😅
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@TomEllison789 Macro themes based on current information, these can change if new information comes to light 😁
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@JonatanRLZ
Jonatan Randin
1 year
@tedtalksmacro Good stuff👌
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@fewundrstndthis
stupid sexy flanders 🌈 🦇🔊
1 year
@tedtalksmacro honestly this all sounds positive for btc/eth/commodities. curious how there is a sentiment among many that 2023 brings more doom & gloom. excited to see how this all plays out!
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@jdmovemaker
JD Move Maker
1 year
@tedtalksmacro Not sure how I missed your update yesterday, but happy you RT. As usual your macro view is clear, concise and great for the long term investors wading through the muck. Thanks Ted!
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@jdmovemaker thanks mate!! Happy to have helped :)
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@tiimschilling
tim.btc
1 year
@tedtalksmacro sources for potential deflation? Hear this szenario more and more
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@tiimschilling lagged impact of tightening
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Highlighted the importance of China as theme #3 It’s now becoming real 👇
1/ There's a new player in town! China's central bank performed it's single-largest liquidity injection on Friday, to help support their economy out of historically depressed levels. + there's more to come 🇨🇳
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Theme #5 On Friday last week, Japanese core inflation printed at the highest level since 1981 --> fuelling speculation that the BOJ will need to tighten after years of extremely easy monetary policy 😬
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Theme #1 ‘Expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes by 25bps in February and pause shortly after’ ‘The market to speculate on the next round of easing by 2024 or perhaps even earlier’
Goldman Sachs see no rate hike at this month's Fed meeting. Pause speculation is well underway, I'd expected by Q3 but perhaps we get it in Q2 👀
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Theme #3 - China's economy expands at the fastest pace in a year. GDP growth beat expectations by +0.50%
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