$MSTR is now outperforming $AAPL on the 5 year chart‼️
We are watching history in real time - the success of the
#Bitcoin
Standard for corporations.
"BTC adoption will be like adopting gun powder, not a new shiny iPhone." - Professor
@saifedean
Students at Ohio State University audibly gasp and boo when the commencement speaker brings up the subject of
#Bitcoin
“Is this real? I don’t like this. This is really embarrassing”
Last week, Gerber goes on CNBC to cry about Elon, to say why he’s selling $TSLA and to praise Rivian.
Today he’s praising Tesla and the CyberTruck.
I cannot put into words:
1. How temporary most “issues” are
2. How little conviction the “professional” investing class has
"People across the country, as they come in contact with the Cybertruck, are basically seeing the future of automobiles," says
@GerberKawasaki
as $TSLA is set to deliver its electric pickup this week.
$TSLA while the dialogue is typically focused on 0.0008% of the employees, I would like to mention the other 127,854 employees who work there.
These are some of the most talented people on this Earth. Period. From the admins, to the leadership team, and every engineer. This
$MSTR is now outperforming $AAPL on the 5 year chart‼️
We are watching history in real time - the success of the
#Bitcoin
Standard for corporations.
"BTC adoption will be like adopting gun powder, not a new shiny iPhone." - Professor
@saifedean
My head is still spinning from this past week. $MSTR World was the coolest professional event of my life. 😎
Between learning more about:
- the legacy BI/AI business
-
#Bitcoin
- Bitcoin Development Company initiatives
And having candid conversations with executives, plus
$MSTR I think a 30:1 stock split here could have the impact of 10 suns exploding ☀️ 🌞
Liquidity in the equity market and options market would invariably increase, and reflexively drive each other higher.
$MSTR Just an idea, not forcing this on anyone.
I think a stock split here could be Biblical, like the Book of Revelations. A stock split or a creation of Class C shares, to mirror the Berkshire dynamic.
The reason that Buffet created BRK.B was to lower the barrier to entry for
@BitcoinErrorLog
To all the $MSTR haters, who have only *recently* started to voice your displeasure on $MSTR because of the out-performance versus
#Bitcoin
I hope you like knowing that others have put hundreds/thousands of hours into studying $MSTR, and had recognized & understood the option
I’m working through my DMs - my inbox is overwhelming. One of the common $MSTR questions I’m seeing is “when would I sell?” Let me put it this way:
My master plan is to be working at MicroStrategy one day as the COO (we don’t have one now). Even if it takes me 10 years, this is
@WallStreetSilv
How come women aren’t seeking equal representation in jobs such as oil drilling, deep sea fishing, construction?
Don’t we need diversity, equity, and inclusion in all areas of life?
Or do the ladies only want equality in the easy office jobs? Politicians, C Suite execs, etc?
$MSTR Theoretical post-FASB Impact
The FASB literature indicates that fair value measurements in digital assets will be reflected in Net Income. So, there is reason to believe that the unrealized
#BTC
gains will flow to EPS, which could *potentially* re-price MSTR to 10k⚡️
$MSTR feels like 2019 $TSLA
1. Many folks did not understand either
2. Short squeeze dynamix in both
3. S&P 500 inclusion in both
4. Recent realized profitability
(post FASB for $MSTR)
5. CEO/Chairman Fanboy Clubs on both
6. Both are Big Tech Monopolies
From a behavior standpoint:
Anyone remember $TSLA 2020? A car Company trading at a tech multiple. Short sellers getting carted out of the room because they thought they could time irrational behavior?
Act 2 is
#MSTR
with its
#bitcoin
multiple.
Participants convinced the
$MSTR vs the Leveraged
#BTC
ETFs
I know I share this graphic below frequently, but this has been my view ever since BlackRock filed for their $BTC ETF last summer.
IMO, $MSTR is the best of both worlds. A super lean company that does the one thing I understand well (Business
@JDBet45
@blockgraze
That’s for the tag 🏷️
@JDBet45
Only time will tell as with everything
But I’ve been making the same case as Saylor in regards to $MSTR being the best
#Bitcoin
equity vehicle
No fees to hodl, the stack increases, there’s an uncorrelated 2k person software business
$MSTR rally on the close today puts it as the best performer of BTC equities on a down day 👀
And within 21 basis points (0.21%) of
#Bitcoin
The OUT-performance of $MSTR vs $IBIT on up days is obvious, but the outperformance on down days, is remarkable ⚡️
As
@ryQuant
has noted, $MSTR pullbacks vs
#Bitcoin
are far smaller than the gains multiple.
Today the $MSTR dip has been 1.5x Bitcoin
The daily gains have been 4-5x
What if an investor with unlimited capital announced a program to acquire 450 $BTC daily at the market price for the next four years and hold the asset forever? What if they increased their purchases to 675 BTC daily in 2028, and to 787.5 BTC daily in 2032?
#BitcoinHalving
.
Years ago I watched a video where a traditional hedge fund manager was telling a story.
He said that one night, when he was a young hedge fund manager himself, he was at a bar with a money manager who was near retirement.
The senior gentleman says, "Look man just put all your
$MSTR Leverage Ratio
Last year, near the 1.46 high point,
@saylor
said on a Space that, "we will ride this thing to fucking zero. [
#Bitcoin
]
1.46 --> 0.33 = a 77% collapse in the leverage ratio so far.
And 0.33 is less than half of the linear trendline.
Throw out the spreadsheets.
Nothing is priced in. $MSTR
-Short Squeeze Dynamix
-BTCp/s is up only
-Heavy hitting shareholder base
-Post FASB profitability
-S&P500 inclusion & no rush on this
-Giga chad running the leverage
-Only entity on Earth w/ aggressive BTC position
@elonmusk
Yes. I have purchased over $1.3 billion in
#BTC
in past months & would be happy to share my playbook with you offline - from one rocket scientist to another.
Hi Friends,
@PunterJeff
and I will resume Quant Bros episodes when I’m back on the west coast.
My travel schedule is hectic and I’m trying to live in the moment with friends and family for the next week.
I’m as bullish on $MSTR as I’ve ever been, and I am looking forward to
$MSTR the ignorant takes make me more bullish.
Again we find the emotional “dumping” language pertaining to something that shareholders have known for 6 months now.
Also notice how these people have no understanding that
(1) it’s an option that’s being exercised
(2) he
$MSTR Just an idea, not forcing this on anyone.
I think a stock split here could be Biblical, like the Book of Revelations. A stock split or a creation of Class C shares, to mirror the Berkshire dynamic.
The reason that Buffet created BRK.B was to lower the barrier to entry for
$MSTR a 10:1 stock split here would set the price at $69. That's funny because of the joke but it's actually a great price point.
Being in the ~50 dollar area for an ETF is the sweet spot. Even newer investors can own 10-20 shares, and work their way up to 100 shares. And that
$MSTR closing the gap on $BLK
MicroStrategy flipping BlackRock would be one of the most remarkable things I've ever seen or studied in finance history.
A true win for the "little guy" versus Wall Street.
$MSTR flipping $BLK is on the table within 2-4 years.
There is no asymmetry in BlackRock, whereas MicroStrategy is a leveraged bet on the best performing asset during an intense period of catalysts, with a high margin & low expense global BI/AI/MultiCloud/BDC company.
#Bitcoin
is Digital Property. It is superior to other investments such as Gold, Equity, or Real Estate because it is digital, available, global, ethical, & useful to millions of companies and billions of people.
$MSTR illiquidity Tracker & Total $ Short
It's pretty crazy to see these numbers are at elevated levels, going into *perhaps* an unprecedented *overnight* change in EPS expectations, with an unexpected beat that is ~63x higher than last quarter's EPS. And current EPS forecasts
I'm off the net for the next few hours trying to piece together the state of the $MSTR short squeeze, checking out Giga Chad's next round of 500M converts, and prepping for an interview and our Spaces tonight.
Will do my best to get back to everyone ASAP in comments/DMs and/or
Quant Bros Episode 3 ⚡️
Is $MSTR the MJ of
#BTC
Equities?
Overview:
-S&P 500 vs Dow Jones Inclusion
-Intro to the Reflexive_Flywheel™
-George Soros / Christopher Cole
-MSTR vs the Leveraged BTC ETFs
-Global PubCo HODLer List
Context & links are below.
@PunterJeff
$MSTR Share Price $481
$MSTR BTC/Share $490
The Enterprise Value of MicroStrategy, both the 2,000 employee software business & holding company of 189k
#Bitcoin
is currently trading at a -2% discount to the value of the BTC.
$MSTR while I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing trade down to $420 (high variance stock & I've just seen so much craziness),
$515 $MSTR at $45.3k
#Bitcoin
seems way too cheap.
The BTC per share alone is worth $513 ‼️
Over the course of a few months, the “professional” investors on CNBC will discuss hundreds of stocks, and they know nothing about all of them.
Being a generalist in finance is a guaranteed path to mediocrity - at best.
These folks have never done the work on $MSTR
Short seller Kerrisdale Capital is betting against $MSTR, calling the stock's premium "unjustifiable."
@karenfinerman
and
@grassosteve
debate the strategy.
One day you won’t even notice when the price moves 60k.
How do I know?
I made my first buys at $200 and now I don’t notice when the price moves $200.
You really think you’re going to notice an intra day move between 2.68MM vs 2.62MM?
Trust me… you won’t.
This will sooo be the theme of this cycle.
#Bitcoin
$MSTR ⚡️
Reminder that NOBODY was critical of $MSTR prior to the stock turning into a vertical elevator.
Melt-ups do tend to cause tears to flow down. 😈
SOME Bitcoin Maxis have to be the most regarded people that exist in the Bitcoin space. Their stupidity is only on the level of BSV investors.
Here we have Microstrategy attacking legacy finance from within, and these Maxis turn on people supporting Saylor and MSTR.
If
Necessary Doc Shout-Out
Those who know me, may think I’ve been *perhaps* a little critical 😅 of Wall Street over the past 5-6 years.
But what I haven’t yet said, is that these guys are mostly savage winners. Type A, Alpha MFs.
And now we have one of those guys on Twitter,
@TheRabbitHole84
Capitalism, where entrepreneurs are free to create, investors are free to allocate capital towards the best ideas, and consumers are free to buy the products and services they want, is the single greatest engine of prosperity that the world has ever seen.
Keep the following in mind as Peter Schiff relentlessly criticizes
#Bitcoin
. Let's take a look into Schiff's credibility, or lack thereof:
Here's a chart of Schiff's mutual funds versus the S&P 500.
Schiff has nominally lost money during the most prolific period of monetary
$MSTR vs. the ETFs Debate
-Doc and I went to a concert after the Space.
-Here is a 2 minute clip from the show!
-And we noticed the price action 👀
-The voters have spoken for now.
🔊
@Bitcoin
p/sUP & 78% Margins 🔊
🔊 ETFs can *Never* do BuyBacks 🔊
🔊 TURN IT UP 🔊
@LynAldenContact
Tesla sells every car it makes.
After production, there is a process of getting cars onto car carriers or large boats.
That process starts with having the car temporarily sit in a parking lot.
The cars don’t magically get from the factory to customer’s houses.
$MSTR this is an amazing article ⚡️
So thoughtful, and an excellent blend of several big ideas.
Hey
@Futur3_Th1nk3r
no pressure, but you’re welcome to join us on a Quant Bros episode(s) anytime. I’d love to unpack the article and your Convergent Flywheel idea and share it 😎
The most antifragile
#Bitcoin
equity: cash flow generating business with low costs and 78% margins.
The most optionality of the all the
#Bitcoin
equities by a mile: the ability to due future buybacks.
And then take on more debt
Buyback the stock
Pay off the loan
And then take
Quant Bros Press Release.
@PunterJeff
We hold the controversial view of: we would be thrilled to have
@adam3us
join us for an episode to talk about Proof of Work,
#Bitcoin
, $MSTR, etc
Hats backwards, laser eyes & glasses assaulting forwards. ⚡️
$MSTR This is hot off the press, my notes for next week's video
@PunterJeff
To answer your question it's hard to quantify the impact of any of the catalysts in a dynamic system.
I see the S&P500 inclusion as a high probability outcome. It's a matter of when, not if, IMO.
Excited to debut - QUANT BROS ⚡️
Episode 1: Can $MSTR hit $10,000?
Thousands of hours of research, game theory, and complex topics distilled in this video.
Overview in comments below and feedback is always welcomed. 😎
@goldseek
You have no idea what you’re talking about in regards to $MSTR
This is not worth unpacking.
@goldseek
is yet another guy who thinks he just discovered novel information, yet has no actual clue as to what’s going on.
$MSTR Jeff and I talked for almost 3 hours tonight to get our ducks in a row for our research videos & the interviews that we’re planning on doing ⚡️
The first episode will be our bull case for $10,000 (or $0.01M) MicroStrategy 😎
@JoshMandell6
@TheMatrixDr
Josh, you’ll carry the team here! Haha
Ryan and I are catching up after work tomorrow to game plan some content. Will loop you in asap.
The
#Bitcoin
ETFs compete amongst themselves, with fee structures as their only distinction.
$MSTR has no competition. There is no other leveraged operating company creating once in human history optionality for the long term.
I know I’m a broken record, but there is no limit
With over 17m shares traded, THIS week $MSTR has traded the most amount of shares in it's entire 25 year history.
Instead of lessening the appetite for $MSTR, the ETFs have served to highlight Microstrategy as a SUPERIOR invesment vehicle.
PubCo Personnel Efficiency Table
Ranked by: Market Cap/Employees
$MSTR is
#7
on this list (for now) & notably higher than the Enterprise Software Stocks that Saylor identified below
"If you're going to know a subject, you better know the subject." -
@saylor
$MSTR Many people who have claimed to understand MicroStrategy, have never once understood this company & opportunity.
Why understanding MSTR now is critical
Over the last 12 days of 2024
- MSTR is down 29%
- BTC is up 1.4%
A 30% movement in the second largest vehicle for owning BTC relative to the core asset is enormous.
Clearly, this has moved more and faster than any of us expected. A
$MSTR Don't make me tap the sign
1. I'm a broken record on the meme here.
2.
@qcapital2020
mentions that an $MSTR short is a "generational" opportunity.
A generational opportunity cannot be capped at a 100% gain, which is the upper limit potential when shorting an equity.
Hey
@elonmusk
, I know you got a lot going on and you don’t have much of a personal interest in
#Bitcoin
in the way that
@jack
does, but adding BTC to the balance sheet would be in the best interest of Tesla long term.
What does the Fiat Standard look like in 50-100 years?
For anyone who is new to
#Bitcoin
, the “halving” can be best described as:
the process of $MSTR cutting their float in half via buybacks, and this has a proportional impact on increasing Sats per Share (SpS™)
That’s a joke ⬆️
This is not ⬇️
There is no theoretical limit to
$MSTR imagine shorting this stock going into the Halving and perhaps less than 12 months away from the **price insensitive forced buying** of S&P 500 inclusion 😈
(Don’t tell Kerrisdale) 🤫
@RealRamonTiscar
@PunterJeff
@SPGlobal
$MSTR “wen S&P 500 inclusion”
The 3 time windows for S&P inclusion are March, June, December
December 2024 could theoretically be the soonest, as Q4 2023 was a positive earnings quarter, and as TK shows below, we need 1 full year. FASB fair value accounting helps in this
$MSTR Updated Market Cap Scenario Table
mNAV is currently at 2
mNAV in Feb 2021 was 6, with 0% interest rates
This would suggest to me that the asymmetric risk is for mNAV to explode towards 10, rather than drift towards 1.
$MSTR Potential Market Cap Scenarios
Given a higher
#Bitcoin
price, with the 1-10 range on multiple of net asset value. This table excludes the software business, and just looks at the BTC holdings
Table values are in billions.
Current market cap is 25 billion.
@LynAldenContact
@BitPaine
“He doesn’t build things”
Does SpaceX not exist?
Tesla only had a patent on the name of the company when Elon got involved
Legacy auto “the competition” will continue to be crushed
Why the personal attack?
$MSTR has 2.25x as much
#bitcoin
as companies number 2 to 38 on the Global PubCo HODLer list, combined.
Monopoly type dominance so far.
Data source in comment below.
$MSTR Episode 4 - Long Phong
Below is a clip from MicroStrategy World 2023, where Phong Le (the CEO) gives an overview on:
-MicroStrategy Principles & History
-Explanation of MicroStrategy ONE
-A customer success story with
@Hilton
$MSTR Episode 3 - the Founding Story
This is the beginning of my videos on the BI/analytics/software business.
There is a lot to cover, and this is the optimal starting point.
@saylor
$MSTR outperforming $NVDA again ⚡️
It still seems "quiet", especially outside of BTC Twitter.
Same starting point as the chart below. January of 2023, when tax loss selling from the 2022 bear market ended.
#Bitcoin
$MSTR vs $IBIT
Okay, at some point I will stop posting this table, but not today.
In January, it seemed like an obvious guess that MSTR would outperform IBIT to the upside.
But I *NEVER* would have guessed that $MSTR could outperform IBIT on the downside. Obscene. ⚡️
"The important thing isn't can you read music, it's can you hear it. Can you hear the music, Robert?" - Oppenheimer Quote
$MSTR The areas of large institutional selling as seen on the top chart, can be easily spotted on the bottom chart.
It is not possible that Q2 2022's
$MSTR I’m flying back to California today and ready to get back to the research grind ⚡️
My first two weeks will include:
-QB episode(s)
Adding to my GitHub/Google Sheets:
-MSTR illiquidity tracker
-MSTR mNAV impact on Market Cap
-MSTR Mega Model (all metrics in one)
I hope $MSTR never considers acquiring a miner. Plus, everything Saylor has said and done would suggest he prefers to buy & HODL
#BTC
Why deal with the CapEx involved with miners, just to chase diminishing returns?
By 2034, 99% of BTC will be mined‼️
$MSTR = Jet 🛩️
This is the problem. Cathie regularly speaks so positively on Tesla, yet she has been selling non-stop for years now. It's ethically wrong.
She has gone from owning 16.5 million shares of $TSLA to 3.5 million shares, adjusted for the most recent stock split.
@TeslaBoomerMama
's
$MSTR number-go-up on the highest volume in the company’s history. 👀
It’s extraordinary to see a higher level of volume than when the stock was 200x cheaper during the dot-com lows.
$MSTR this post here was by far the best of the ~15 bearish reports that I have seen.
When this was posted, $MSTR was $580. Even then, the "premium" discussion was alive and well. Remember those days?
@dotkrueger
😎
Finance is not like slamming a bowling ball on the bumpers,
Thoughts on he MicroStrategy
#MSTR
premium.
@saylor
has been a
#bitcoin
champion accumulating 158,400 BTC since 2020. It started with investing the company's cash reserves. Then he added $2.2 bn of debt. More recently, he has been issuing new shares.
$MSTR *anything* can happen.
But this is a once in human history Monopoly that’s being formed James and yet everyone talks about $NVDA who has competition and it’s 100x bigger than $MSTR
NVDA 10x from here = 20Tn
MSTR 10x from here = 200Bn
Which sounds realistic, James?
PubCo Personnel Efficiency Table
Ranked by: Market Cap/Employees
$MSTR is
#7
on this list (for now) & notably higher than the Enterprise Software Stocks that Saylor identified below