Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations
@ecfr
, Berlin. Covers ethnic politics in the Balkans and the U.S. & its foreign policy implications.
Remarkable display of EU strategic sovereignty in the Balkans. Yesterday, the EU enacted sanctions against the Kosovo government for instructing elected municipal mayors to assume offices in 4 Serb-dominated municipalities in North Kosovo. Same day, in Bosnia & Herzegovina...
Today marks a watershed for post-Dayton
#Bosnia
. Russia is using the UN Security Council to undermine the OHR while Moscow's proxies threaten to break up the country. The US, the EU & the UK urgently need a plan of their own. My latest for
@ForeignPolicy
My 2 cents on 🇷🇸's military military deployment on 🇽🇰border. 🇷🇸 president's strategy now seems to be: create a bigger crisis to dodge responsibility for the previous one, i.e. prosecuting his allies who staged the attacks in
#Kosovo
last week. His other objective seems to be:
The day
#Berlin
was unified, 4 yrs later, the old bridge connecting
#Mostar
was destroyed. While the post-1989 unification was a true triumph in
#Europe
, parallel destruction few hundred kilometers away - a chilling reminder of danger of the void in
#EU
policy on
#WesternBalkans
.
Short🧵on Bosnia after spending several weeks offline for family reasons. The situation looks dramatic, and it is, bcs Dodik's threats at terminating Bosnia as we know it come in combination w/Russia's blackmail in the run up to November UNSC session, where extension of EUFOR...
In Bosnia as in Ukraine, Russia’s objective is to keep the country out of NATO, NATO out of the country, and to weaken the US engagement. My latest for
@ecfr
on how the escalation in 🇺🇦 may affect the UN & Russia's ability to pursue its goals in Bosnia:
My latest piece
@ecfr
features the house in
#DC
where Jean Monnet lived during
#WWII
& tells the story of his connections to Washington political elites. These ties were crucial in shaping US policy on Europe during & after the war.
#EuropeDay
#VEDay75
This is not only shocking, but also strategically unwise. I wrote here why & how Serbia's President Vucic is able to take advantage of the absence of Western strategic thinking:
.. but is almost certain not to follow up & sanction Dodik. Many (myself included) feel that EU's sanctioning of Kurti's government is not only disproportionate but strategically unwise. This sense is reinforced by the fact that the EU legal framework of sanctions against those..
Kosovo, in which dozens of NATO soldiers were wounded, several critically, there has been no high profile initiative (except by 🇽🇰 gvt) to identify/hold those responsible to account. The response has been to punish Kurti for provoking the bully but to let the bully off the hook.
.. the RS Assembly voted to suspend all rulings of BIH Constitutional Court in the RS entity, after RS President, Milorad Dodik, basically sabotaged the court, the highest domestic authority for interpreting & enforcing the Dayton Peace Agreement. The EU has now issued a rebuke..
Each time the world forgets about
#Bosnia
, Dodik makes sure to bring it back into spotlight. The aim of Dodik's current attack on BIH Constitutional Court is clear: to undermine & weaken the court & get rid of the three international/ECtHR judges who are thorn in his side. Why?🧵
.. undermining the Dayton Peace Agreement has, so far, been used zero times, despite countless violations of Dayton in 🇧🇦. Not surprisingly, Dodik has never stopped salami slicing Bosnia. Finally, a month after the brutal attacks on KFOR troops in north..
Welcome
@majda_ruge
! We are excited to announce Majda joined our
@ECFRBerlin
office as a Senior Policy Fellow to our
#WiderEurope
programme. Her areas of expertise include nationalism, post-conflict state building, the
#WesternBalkans
and others 👉
It's important not to downplay the security threat stemming from Serbia's escalation. But it is also important not to allow 🇷🇸's escalatory tactics to shape the terms of political settlement, i.e. allow for 🇷🇸's permanent political interference in 🇽🇰 through institutional means..
I never thought I'd provide translation services for
#Dodik
, but it's important that this one is understood clearly by those pushing for border revision in
#Kosovo
. After meeting Vucic, Dodik made it clear that he intends to use 🇽🇰-🇷🇸 border deal to further destabilise BiH state.
#Macron
gets it right that
#Bosnia
is central to the stability of
#WesternBalkans
but gets it wrong as to why this is the case. On jihadist threat, both
#Bosnia
&
#WB
fare better than
#France
, whether measured by no. of FTFs or terrorist attacks. From my 2017
#Senate
testimony:
... which will, long run, not lead to peace & stability, but permanent destabilization. In Bosnia,
#Dodik
has successfully employed similar tactics for a decade now, salami-slicing of
#Bosnia
's sovereignty through escalation, at the expense of security in 🇧🇦 & the region.
increase the level of threat & thus leverage vis-à-vis the EU & the US, in order to push through his two goals in the north of Kosovo: swift formation of a full-blown Association of Serb Municipalities & replacement of Kosovo police force in the North with
#KFOR
.
My colleague
@EngjellusheM
& I wrote up this very short piece for
@ecfr
w/some recommendations for 🇪🇺🇺🇸 response to last week's crisis. They are as valid in the light of new circumstances:
.
@OlafScholz
Balkan trip is 🇩🇪's last push to unlock 🇪🇺talks for🇲🇰🇦🇱, a few days after Russia suffered a blow to its prestige in the region. Meanwhile,🇪🇺 is divided whether to prioritise W.Balkans,🇺🇦, or neither.
What this means for everyone involved:
Only few days after the WH mtg, Hoti's coalition partner said he won't share Gazivode; leader of the most popular opposition party in Kosovo called the deal invalid; Serbian gvt. officials suggest Pres.Vucic won't tolerate Israel's recognition of Kosovo.
The day
#Putin
announced the mobilisation of 300K reservists, he met Milorad Dodik, member of the BIH Presidency. Why does he make time for Dodik on such an important day? What are Russia's goals in Bosnia & how does Moscow pursue them? My take for
@ecfr
:
Joe Biden knows the Balkans well. In my latest piece, for
@ForeignPolicy
, I argue that fixing Trump's mistakes will be easy, but avoiding Obama's will be much harder.
Some key points below 👇
The Dayton Peace Agreement was initialled 25 yrs ago at an air base in Dayton, Ohio. My latest
@ecfr
report looks at how Bosnia & Herzegovina is doing quarter of a century later. Today I was asked by
@BBCNews
- has Dayton worked? A few points below 👇
As
#NATO
allies gather in
#Vilnius
&
#Bosnia
mourns the victims of
#Srebrenica
genocide, Putin's proxies are carrying out a coup on the Dayton Peace Agreement. My
@ecfr
piece on how to stop 🇧🇦political crisis from evolving into a military one:
My latest for
@ecfr
on why Russia, despite being bogged down in Ukraine, remains a threat for Bosnia. Spoiler: bc Dayton constitution gives enormous power to its proxies in 🇧🇦. And bc some EU members are facilitating 🇷🇺's goals in Bosnia. More here 👇
Honored to testify before the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee today on the crisis in Bosnia & Herzegovina and the UK response, alongside
@arminkahelic
and
@MpDamir
. Many thanks to
@CommonsForeign
members for paying attention to Bosnia and inviting us to speak.
Good thread. The main question here is: what explains US/EU lenience towards Serbia?
@Andric1961
suggests it's 🇷🇸 delivery of weapons to 🇺🇦. Partly true. But if the war in Ukraine ended tomorrow, would the US/EU correct their policy on Serbia & the region? I don't think so. Why?
On the current situation in the Balkans: The EU is threatening sanctions against the Kurti government in Kosovo, but not against Serbian leaders Vucic and Dodik. This is absurd, mildly put. But there seems to be an explanation for Western leniency towards Belgrade.
The German scapegoat!
@jana_puglierin
& I wrote how 🇩🇪 bashing will be a key part of GOP's 2024 election strategy. DeSantis now joins the club.
For 🇩🇪, correcting the false narrative on its support for 🇺🇦 is good, delivering on the 2% goal even better.
DeSantis says of German support for Ukraine: "They're not doing anything". This is fake news. But the narrative has now become entrenched in the Republican Party and successive German governments deserve part of the blame for that
A moving commemoration for victims of the
#SrebrenicaGenocide
was held in Kaiser-Wilhelm Memorial Church in
#Berlin
last night in the presence of senior gvt. & religious representatives and the Bosnian community.
A few thoughts on the event.
- thread -
This is not necessarily contradictory. The entire purpose behind adopting Bonn Powers was to counter anti-Dayton behaviour & ensure that the state can function. So supporting their use for these purposes & opposing their use for electoral gerrymandering is quite natural.
🇧🇦: People who were huge fans of the misuse of undemocratic powers of an unelected official and hoped those powers would be misused to impose something they consider good now scorn those same powers as they might be misused to impose something they consider bad.
#OTD
25 yrs ago in Paris, the
#Dayton
Peace Agreement was signed. Today we kick off our
@ecfr
conference to discuss the challenges & how to move
#Bosnia
forward. I am particularly proud of the young participants from Banja Luka, Mostar and Sarajevo, who have an important message.
Yesterday's anniversary of 1938 November pogrom/Crystal Night. Berlin: parents & children lay flowers on street cobble stones engraved w/names of Jewish victims. Belgrade: Minister of Interior lays flowers on the mural of war criminal Mladic, convicted of genocide by the ICTY.
It feels like a comedy, but it's actually tragic. The degree of sloppiness. The lack of preparation. How detached the ambition to portray this as a historic deal is from reality. And worst, the costs for such a large Kosovar delegation being paid from a depleted public budget.
The point about mini-Schengen is also mute. There is no such legal entity or treaty to join. "Mini-Schengen" is a media term to describe vague political declarations.
A story of courage, compassion & mutual protection:
#Bosnian
Muslim saves
#Sarajevo
Haggadah & Jewish girl from Nazis in 40s; his
#Albanian
wife escapes Sarajevo in Jewish convoy in 1992; his daughter is rescued from
#Kosovo
war by
#Macedonian
Jews in 99
Corona Diplomacy Unmasked:
My
@ecfr
colleague
@oertel_janka
& I add our voices to the discussion about the
#Corona
-induced 'battle of narratives'. We look into the case of
#Serbia
, which provides important insights. Read our commentary here:
Senator
@JDVance1
&
@RichardGrenell
selectively quote our
@ecfr
piece to prove their point how Germany's Ukraine policy is a "disgrace." What they leave out is this bit, on 🇩🇪 being the
#1
continental provider of military + other support to 🇺🇦👇🏻.
My latest
@ecfr
commentary on Germany's
#Greens
and the
#WesternBalkans
. Their starting point is excellent, turning it into policy will be challenging:
.. mission is due & at which Russia is likely to condition EUFOR extension by making the OHR even less relevant than it currently is. To make things worse, Biden administration has delegated Bosnia to a handful of mid-level bureaucrats looking for easy diplomatic victories ..
My latest for
@ecfr
on 🇩🇪 nomination of Christian Schmidt as the new High Representative to
#Bosnia
. Read about the risks surrounding this candidacy & the urgent need for a strategy to mitigate them. Spoiler: 🇷🇺's opposition is not the only risk.
..in the BIH Parliament: "I'm not Ashdown, but my authority still stands."
You don't have to be Ashdown to understand the simple principle that led his actions in Bosnia, which Paddy liked to evoke as late as 2018:
"If you want to save the maiden, you have to slay the dragon".
Excellent Transnational Security roundtable
@MunSecConf
on Tackling Illicit Crossborder Flows w/impressive group of gvt & non-gvt reps: Sudanese PM Hamdok and Cindy McCain among others. Sahel in focus but this is an obvious discussion to have on the Western Balkans.
#MSC2020
"..there appears to be widespread public support for Kurti’s position, as his party has skyrocketed from 26.7 % of the vote in the October 2019 election to 52.8 % in the polls & the LDK has dropped from 24.5 % to 17.2 %."
The latest
@ecfr
commentary👇
Instead,the OHR is afraid of the dragon(s), while the US & the EU representatives are appeasing & even dining with them. My colleague's observation now truly applies: "this looks like a great power competition, but in reality, only one power is showing up."
Thread:
As I watch the
#Kosovo
crisis unfold and
@VjosaOsmaniMP
’s speech I have to think of
#Sarajevo
Canton government coalition led by
@EdinForto
that was recently toppled by the corrupt wartime
#SDA
party eager to prevent reforms & maintain its patronage spoils.
.
@VjosaOsmaniMP
: "I absolutely don't support this motion and I call on all MPs to reject it. Kosovo today does not need a government that lacks democratic legitimacy and which will include parties that LDK promised it won't go into coalition with."
#meKryeministrin
#Kosovo
Tomorrow is the first
#Republican
primary debate (minus Donald Trump). How will the candidates position themselves on
#Ukraine
?
#Trump
's views will be echoed by some, criticized by others. To find out who sits where, read my latest for
@ecfr
👇🏻
Clearly, all eyes are on 🇺🇸
#Election2020
.
I chose to write about a different one: local elections in
#Bosnia
, featuring the voting dead ☠️🎃🇧🇦 and other scary types of electoral trick & treating 👻🎃🍬
Read my
@ecfr
article to find out more:
.. & hoping to solve the crisis by appeasing Dodik. What can one expect to achieve by negotiating w/the politician who regularly insults U.S. embassy in Sarajevo, calls the US key source of instability in Bosnia, actively blocks Bosnia's NATO path, threatens to dismantle Bosnia's
At a campaign rally in North Carolina, President Trump reportedly claimed credit for stopping mass killings btw. Serbia & Kosovo. In fact 'the killings' were stopped by President Clinton in 1999.
I wrote about what Trump's deal has(not) achieved here👇:
A remarkable life has come to an end. A fantastic strategist & tactician, a charismatic, courageous and competent leader. Also the kindest and most decent politician I knew. He finished his last book before he was hospitalised. Read it, it is as relevant today as ever. RIP Paddy.
In domestic politics, crises are often used by authoritarians to consolidate power & distract from corruption. In foreign policy, crises can be used to promote reforms & combat corruption. My piece for
@aminterest
on
#Ashdown
's legacy in the
#Balkans
:
A heartbreaking thread by Selma Jahic, who was 7 yrs. old when
#Srebrenica
genocide happened. The most horrific part of her recollections is the brutality of war as seen through the eyes of children. At one point she is shocked to see that the perpetrators are actually human.
..government institutions built with years of U.S.'s & EU's investment of political capital & funds? Unless the US envoy is talking to Mr. Dodik to communicate a threat to extend US sanctions to Dodik's inner circle of business oligarchs, these talks will inevitably result in..
.. more concessions to Dodik's demands & further weakening of Bosnia's central government. Add to that electoral law concessions to the HDZ. I am not even mentioning the EU, since they aren't willing to use their leverage to start with. The OHR? The new High Rep recently said ..
This piece by
@faruk_hadzic
and myself deals with the economic effects of
#COVID19
on public finances in
#Bosnia
and the (un)sustainability of the bloated government system put in place by
#DPA
25 yrs ago.
The numbers speak for themselves.
@aminterest
Meet
@AmilaKaracic
, a superwoman who casually got on the stage to moderate a panel after passing several kidney stones. No biggie, it's just a couple of kidney stones. A bit like moderating a panel straight after childbirth.
My latest
@ecfr
piece w/
@nicupopescu
, inspired (among other things) by high discrepancy btw. perceptions & reality of the strategic value of China & Russia to Serbia, as shown by the recent
@IRIglobal
opinion poll.
Russian Ambo to
#Bosnia
reacts to my latest text. He finds my thinking confused. I find that he, like his boss, purposefully uses
#disinformation
on Bosnia and Russia's war of annihilation in
#Ukraine
.
Vlado Shopov & I wrote this piece on
#Montenegro
&
#China
, arguing that the
#EU
's key 'China problem' in the region is the nexus between the lack of government accountability & 🇨🇳 influence. If the EU really wants to tackle the problem, laser focus ...
Bombastic campaign claims about Trump's Serbia-Kosovo 'deal' shouldn't distract us from examining less bombastic parts of the agreement.
What steps does Serbia need to take to implement its 5G pledge? What about the US+EU?
My latest w/
@vladisavljev_s
:
Friends in
#DC
! If you have some time on yr hands today, come to the Washington National Cathedral to celebrate the courage, culture, talents & benefits of refugees w
@chefjoseandres
@GerDuany
& the fantastic team of volunteers who put together
@1journeyfest
. See you there!
#Huawei
is not mentioned by name, only 'untrusted vendors.' As President Vucic does not consider China to be an untrusted supplier, this will likely remain one of the several unimplemented points of the agreement. Just a minor misunderstanding.
In March Aleksandar Vucic said the only country that could help Serbia was China. Today he signed a document in Trump’s office agreeing to ban Huawei from Serbian 5G. This could end up being, for Serbia, one of the more significant points of the “deal” with ....Kosovo.
As Russia invades Ukraine,
#EUFOR
decides to deploy additional 500 troops to Bosnia. Yet Russia holds a veto over their mandate at the UNSC. Read here about how it plans to use it, and what sort of contingency planning is needed by the US, EU and NATO:
If we learned something during the past 12 years of Dodik's attacks on BIH sovereignty & territorial integrity, it's that he will go as far as he is allowed to. With all due respect to diplomats + policy consultants who think 'we've got Dodik under control', relying on
Kurti's
@MunSecConf
statement on the importance of prosecutors aged well, at least when it comes to Mr Smith, the🇺🇸 war-crimes prosecutor appointed thru a selection process organised by the 🇪🇺.
Judicial transatlantic cooperation in
#WB
seems alive even when political isn't..
This map by
@ImerM1
illustrates that the
#BIH
, despite recent history of ethnic cleansing, remains a multiethnic patchwork rather than sum of ethnically homogenous territories that can be easily split up in three monoethnic statelets. Wld be great to have one of Kosovo, too.
This is such a common sense question. If the BiH election law is so discriminatory against
#BiH
Croats, why have the HDZ politicians, who claim the exclusive right to represent Croats in BiH, not gone to
#ECHR
, but keep lobbying Brussels through the Member State Croatia instead?
Pres. Komsic urges
@Dragan_Covic
, ldr of nationalist HDZ bloc, to sue BiH at ECHR if he’s convinced of own rhetoric re: “discrimination” of Bosnian Croats. Covic won’t, of course, bc ECHR would again rule BiH needs liberal-democratic reforms, while Covic wants more segregation.
I'm not thrilled that my timeline is turning into Milorad Dodik's photo album. That aside: many thanks to
@AJTheTake
for taking an interest in the current crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Pleasure discussing w/
@ptilve
@riadaaa
@MersihaGadzo
.
The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina was the worst one Europe had seen since World War II.
Now, there are fears that a similar conflict could strike up again.
🎧We discuss the 'imminent danger' facing the country with
@majda_ruge
,
@MersihaGadzo
&
@riadaaa
➡️
Reposting my
@ecfr
article on the upcoming local elections in
#Bosnia
, taking place on November 15.
With the
#USElection2020
behind us, let's have a look at what systematic voter fraud actually looks like:
Vucic creates another crisis to solve it and to strengthen
#Brussels
' belief that any sort of deal is better than the status quo. Right response shld be: stop wasting our time, no more free photo-shoots, come back when you're serious. Instead we hear:
Drama continues in Brussels! As Serbian air fighters are ordered to fly above southern Serbia skies, Serbian Presidnet Vucic cancels his meeting with
#Kosovo
president in Brussels and orders Serbian security and army to stop all communications with
@NATO
and Kosovo police.
his promises made in closed meetings is not good enough. What is the contingency plan in case this border deal backfires, and triggers violence in Kosovo and/or RS attempts at secession from Bosnia?
@StateDept
@eu_eeas
@OHR_BiH
@MattFieldUK
@GermanyDiplo
Balkan twitter! Drop everything Mon/Tues afternoon & follow
@ecfr
event
#DaytonAt25
on FB livestream. We're proud of such a great lineup of speakers, especially our fantastic participants from Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Check out our program+speakers here 👇
3 takeaways: a)You can't pursue economics while ignoring politics: you have to walk & chew gum at the same time b) Expect more such statements, backpedalling on such statements & delay tactics via self-staged crises. 3. US & EU need a joint strategy on how to deal w/such tactics.
Quint reacts to Republika Srpska Assembly's attacks on the Office of High Representative and on Bosnia's sovereignty/territorial integrity.
Good to see the show of unity on all 3 questions; important to keep it up beyond this statement, as Dodik will almost surely escalate. 1/2
Unfortunately, the EU and US have already once allowed for a premature departure of international judges and prosecutors. I wrote about it here, in the chapter 'how the ethno-criminal elites captured the state' , in the section on judiciary:
Disinformation on 3 principles for🇽🇰🇷🇸dialogue
@AlbinKurti
laid out at
@EWInstitute
conference in Berlin by Serbian tabloids/shady North Kosovo portal has been picked up by the CNN affiliate
@N1info
. In fact, Kurti never said he would not deal w/Vucic.
Moving speeches by
@ischinger
& 🇩🇪 President
#Steinmeier
underlined by strong warning about the increasingly destructive dynamics in world politics-75 yrs since end of
#WW2
& formation of the
#UN
, 30 yrs since German reunification. ”Diese
#Europa
darf nicht scheitern.“
#MSC2020
Republika Srpska is boycotting 🇧🇦gvt. in defiance of
@OHR_BiH
's decision on genocide denial. The truth is, Dodik needed this imposition & OHR as a bogeyman in the run up to '22 election. Me on why the Quint shouldn't fall for his game/how to end🇧🇦boycott:
I asked my friend, the first Finnish DCM to Saudi, what accounts for such high representation of women in diplomacy, politics & leadership roles? She said: Education. And: Finnish men believe in their daughters. They let them lead.
@Kristina_Lunz
@SelminCaliskan
@Julie_C_Smith
My
@ecfr
piece published in June discusses why a Green Foreign Minister would be good for 🇩🇪's foreign policy in the Balkans. I maintain - the Greens' starting policy positions are excellent, turning them into reality will be challenging. Read more here👇
New 🇩🇪 government continues to argue among
#EU27
for the use of the 2011 sanctions regime in 🇧🇦.
Minister
@ABaerbock
goes further thank her predecessor & names Milorad
#Dodik
. 👇🏼
The unspoiled beauty of old town of
#Korcula
,
#Croatia
. Hidden behind the Cathedral is the house of Fitzroy Maclean,
#Churchill
's envoy to
#Yugoslavia
during the
#WWII
. No sign on the house, and few tourists or locals take notice. Yet his story is fascinating&deserves attention.
I still remember the shock, disbelief & many stages of denial EU diplomats in D.C. went through when Trump was elected. This time it should come as no surprise. On what the US 2024 election may mean for Europe by
@JyShapiro
et moi:
"In my conversations in Brussels, I was asked to provide assurances that the talks w/ Kosovo will not affect BiH. I said that this was impossible. Public perception of these issues is very clear: the RS has no visible benefits within the BiH,
This is the first in a series of publications that we'll be putting out in the run up to the 25th anniversary of the Dayton Peace Agreement under
@ecfr
's
#Dayton2020
project. Stay tuned!
Because the main reason the constitutional court retained its independence is the presence of 3 European judges appointed by the European Court of Human Rights. Without these judges, the court could easily become a political instrument of nationalist parties & be used to ..
I look forward to this discussion on
#BosniaundHerzegovina
this afternoon with the dream-team below. If you are interested in Bosnia/Balkans & speak German, do join us! The spirit of the discussion can be summed up as: "The Complaint Department is Closed."
An obvious thing to watch for when trying to broker a successful deal is to know the context: who you're dealing with, what their preferences are & what sort of tactics they'll pursue. And then base your strategy on that. Even soccer teams do that before a game.
You can follow our two-day conference "Dayton at 25: Future of Bosnia & Herzegovina", and watch the documentary featuring young students from Bosnia & Herzegovina (all born after
#Dayton
) on our facebook livestream available here:
A friend commented on Milwuakee bus driver abandoning passengers to save a baby:'This has to be a
#Bosnian
woman.' Turns out she's from
#Serbia
. If there is one trait all women from the
#Balkans
share, it's a primordial motherhood instinct that overrides all other priorities :)
DRAMATIC RESCUE: A Milwaukee bus driver pulls over and sprints across the street to rescue a baby girl wandering alone on a freeway overpass.
The baby, the ninth lost or missing child to be found by bus drivers in recent years, was unharmed.
For all the status-quo fans in the commentariat, here's official assessment of the US intel community for 2019: "Balkans almost certainly will remain at some risk of low-level violence and possibly OPEN MILITARY CONFLICT throughout 2019." My take: we need to finish dialogue NOW!