Joshua Loftus @joftius Twitter profile

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

gentrification dot jpg

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

2 years

How does someone with this level of self-awareness survive and not just forget breathing

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

LOL Bernie polls better as "Democrat that trump says is a socialist who wants government takeover of healthcare and open borders" than he does as just "Democrat"

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

New blog post: "Least squares as springs" Regression, principal components, machine learning... it's all just *springs pulling the model toward the data* 🤯 Why don't we learn it this way?! #StatsTwitter #rstats #ML #AI #MachineLearning #EconTwitter

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

I’m an economist just following the data, talking myself into defending a position that prisons are *actually* better in the US than in Scandinavia because it’s the only way poor people in the US can get healthcare

Jennifer Doleac

@jenniferdoleac

3 years

I’m amazed how many ppl think it’s obvious that beneficial effects of in-prison treatment are larger in Scandinavia. The *alternative* is worse in the US - for many, healthcare in prison is far better than what they’d get in the community. This means effects could be bigger here.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

my god, DARPA uses excel for deep learning? cc @ryxcommar

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

1 year

My most highly cited research is a paper that uses causal models to give a mathematically precise definition for non-discrimination of computer algorithms For years, I've given talks about it using the US Supreme Court as an example... 🧵

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

Nobody is *actually* Bayesian To profess Bayesianism is to try to abdicate responsibility/agency for thinking in favor of a kind of reflexive, automated centrism for beliefs Calling your biases "priors" doesn't make them philosophically or scientifically sound

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@EoinHiggins_ This is actually kind of terrifying. Joe Biden's relationship with the truth is positively trumpian

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@nypost They didn't delete it, it was removed for violating @twitter 's policies

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Ben Sasse thinks we can't give unemployment benefits to the millions of people losing their jobs right now because then some who still have jobs will intentionally choose to quit now so in a few months they can join the WORST LABOR MARKET IN THEIR ENTIRE LIVES

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

@Sen_JoeManchin the next round of checks already have an income phase out, just like the previous one you're contributing nothing, just standing in the way demanding to be important

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

Jake Tapper, the NYT, and NPR are all preparing to replace their COVID death counters with national debt ones

Ben Jealous

@BenJealous

3 years

Bernie Sanders, Chair of the Senate Budget Committee

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

we have to stop this before it's too late

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@Harpers I sent this response to Harpers

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@gwensnyderPHL @studentactivism I think the lesson might be that the New York Times possibly doesn't like Bernie Sanders? Or the left in general? This is a newspaper that's never encountered a war it didn't love, and does glowing profiles of "dapper" nazis and the "intellectual dark web"

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 months

One of the worst abuses of statistics I've ever seen in the @tabletmag article by Abraham Wyner (a professor of statistics at Wharton! 😲) I read the rest of the article, and even if it didn't include the absurd plot that Lior rebutted it's still shockingly irresponsible

Lior Pachter

@lpachter

3 months

A note on "How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers"

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

@DrRachaelF @jeremyphoward Not a mistake, imo. It's just not actually believable at all, given what we know about children spreading every other kind of respiratory virus. It was only propaganda to justify a decision that had already been made

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

People talking about this first graph are all afraid of being cancelled if they step out of line. Only I am brave enough to point out the underlying reason

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

I almost jumped out of my seat because he's so fucking close here! He has the causation *exactly reversed* It is *precisely* because we have a "marketplace" for ideas that nobody can discern the truth! It's all about which ideas are most profitable (to Zuckerberg specifically)

Jeffrey Goldberg

@JeffreyGoldberg

4 years

"If we do not have the capacity to distinguish what’s true from what’s false, then by definition the marketplace of ideas doesn’t work. And by definition our democracy doesn't work. We are entering into an epistemological crisis." - @BarackObama to @TheAtlantic , posting Monday.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

This is false. A meta-analysis of studies which are all confounded will still be biased. I’m a statistician and have no interest, financial or otherwise, in saying this Bret is a social media personality first and foremost and his first priority is courting controversy (grift)

Bret Weinstein

@BretWeinstein

3 years

Those who argue that large scale randomized controlled trials are the only reliable evidence in evidence based medicine have misled you. Now you can see why—large RCTs amplify systematic error in addition to signal, whereas meta-analysis amplifies signal, and corrects for error.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

This is still the only example I'm aware of where people tried to systematically collect data to study which politician's supporters were harassing people online It sure seems like the media hates Bernie's supporters, not the other way around

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

Scientists, every time covid cases increase: "We've discovered a new, 5x more transmissible, Ultima Omicron variant" Scientists, every time covid cases decrease: "Nobody really knows what’s going on"

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

2 years

@timgill924 @benshapiro @MattWalshBlog It's just common sense that a sociology class is a better place to learn about "what is a woman" than from a documentary made by someone who hates women

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

1 year

@mattyglesias What is your relevant experience? Have you taught math? Have you read the literature on effective mathematics education? What exactly is your entry point to having an opinion about this?

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

This is how they celebrate after killing you

Reza Zadeh

@Reza_Zadeh

3 years

It's pretty awesome how dancing makes robots less intimidating. Looking forward to seeing more nontrivial Machine Learning on these robots. Credit: Boston Dynamics.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

2 years

Only about 20% of graduates do masters degrees, while around 40% of debt holders do not even finish college Matty twists himself into arguments like this because he won't openly admit he just doesn't want poor kids to have the opportunities he's had

Matthew Yglesias

@mattyglesias

2 years

What is the plan for the day after universal debt cancellation when masters programs raise tuition and tell prospective students not to worry about it because the debt will be cancelled down the road?

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

2 years

This mf who didn't wash his own dishes in the office kitchen said "laziness" is the reason why anti-work has become more popular (in a pandemic... after decades of wage stagnation...)

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

The anti-"woke" moral panic is a terrible social illness that apparently makes people become stupider over time This guy was a professor of computer science, now he can't even tell the difference between a sample size of 6 coin tosses vs the typical "AI" datasets of n ~ millions

Pedro Domingos

@pmddomingos

3 years

If you flip a coin six times and get four heads, that doesn't mean the coin is biased against tails. But the AI ethics crowd would say yes, and proceed to "debias" the coin by rigging the flips.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

Wait, what?... Why is the government publishing these analyses saying there's no difference in risk between occupations... *after adjusting away the most obvious mediators*!?

Office for National Statistics (ONS)

@ONS

3 years

We’ve released analysis on the characteristics of people testing positive for #COVID19 in England between 1 September 2020 and 7 January 2021, including the likelihood of testing positive for #COVID19 across 25 occupations

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Tired: Council of Economic Advisors Inspired: Council of Social Advisors Economics is just one subfield of social sciences. It's a mistake to think it's any better scientifically or more important politically than the others. It just has more data, but that data is mostly junk

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

Twitter's recommended topical tweets for me have moved on from right wing politicians with COVID conspiracies to right wing academic cranks peddling lies that somehow manage to get *both* social justice *and* technology completely backwards-- (1/n)

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

1 year

@sama Impressive, every single part of your tweet is false

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Prediction: within the next 48 hours trump will order the military to deploy to NYC *by tweet*, people will explain to him he can't do that, @PressSec will answer questions to "clarify" the tweet by saying it was a joke, and the NYT will credit Ivanka for saving the union

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

2 years

@mjnblack Elon warned us this was coming 🙃🤫🤑

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

2 years

Political attacks on me will escalate dramatically in coming months

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

My hobby: generating absurd datasets in #rstats and plotting the true data generating function (green wiggly line) vs what any reasonable person would fit on the same data (blue dashed line)

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Actually should be subtitled “woke capitalism”

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@davidshor so you're saying that elite discourse and media coverage are what determine election outcomes, good to know

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

There are four kinds of posts: earnest posting, shitposting, OMGWTF, and grifting The best ratio is ~49-49-2-0 to maximize uncertainty between the first two Any grifting is unforgivable, but it's very widespread on the political right. There's a ~bit too much OMGWTF on the left

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Give 👏 the 👏 police 👏 budget 👏 to 👏 the 👏 IRS 👏

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

reading this mathematical logic book but there’s a missing parenthesis in chapter 1 so the rest of the book is illogical

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

1 year

He still thinks "with very large numbers of n’s you don’t need randomization" So I'll try to explain what's wrong with this in terms even a Silicon Valley investor might understand, here we go: What if all the "large numbers of n's" are using the same bank?

Keith Rabois

@rabois

1 year

@instrumenthull Still correct.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Don't look now, but the billionaire funding "open science" reforms has some opinions about what the Democratic Party should do inspired by America's most (in)famous eugenicist political scientist

John Arnold

@JohnArnoldFndtn

4 years

The theory in “Coming Apart” by @charlesmurray that the fictionalized, elite “Belmont” is in such a bubble that it has lost touch with the white, working-class “Fishtown” is illustrated every day the NYT publishes multiple op-eds denigrating every Republican (48% of country). 3/

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Bhattacharya was questioned at this colloquium by Stanford statisticians @robtibshirani and @HastieTrevor , and he said a few things which were shocking to me and betrayed just how poorly he is thinking through his actions Colloquium recording: (1/n)

Mallory Harris (@malar0ne.bsky.social)

@malar0ne

4 years

"Our prevalence and IFR estimates do not advocate for or refute the usefulness of any non-pharmaceutical interventions." - the paper Jay Bhattacharya co-authored and is using to very publicly refute the usefulness of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

I woke up this morning and, suddenly, I am a Bayesian

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

🆒 Bayes' theorem 🆒 Bayesian statistical methods 🛑 Identifying as "good Bayesians"

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

The point of “meritocracy” is to produce ~10 million of the most credulous and sanctimonious people believing in their own legitimacy to be the little lords of institutions that exploit the rest of humanity for the benefit of maybe ~1 million

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Wait for the liberal/"centrist" free speech warriors to write ten thousand op-eds about this... any day now... any year now... it's gonna happen... any century now...

Red Nate Silver

@andsern

4 years

City trying to restrict our ability to wear masks that say "I'm Essential, Not Sacrificial"

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

"Predictably, the Internet (mostly Twitter) erupted with outrage" sweet jesus, the @NPRpubliceditor is a corn cob. this is Quillette level stuff--claiming they have no political motives, and that the twitter mob is trying to cancel them

NPR Public Editor

@NPRpubliceditor

4 years

Here’s a review of the missteps in the @nprbusiness story about the coffee shop in Harlan, Ky.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@lhfang It's not "any criticism of China" that people are taking issue with, it's a specific attack ad which is just straightforward xenophobia

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

1 year

@mattyglesias No, I would recommend that you actually care about the issue first. If your motive is generating engagement with the anti-woke part of your audience then you'll be able to selectively read any source looking for juicy out of context takes

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Brought to you by the Gates Foundation and Economist Intelligence Unit, promoted by the World Economic Forum, and just generally lots of experts who love extolling the benefits of capitalism

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

This is jaw droppingly important information that seems to have been entirely ignored since 4 November when SAGE first reported it No wonder the "new variant" story became so big, powerful people need an excuse (to explain the late policy change, and intention to reopen schools)

Irfan Dhalla

@IrfanDhalla

3 years

Children (in the UK) are much more likely than adults (for older kids, nearly 8x more likely) to be the first case of Covid in a household. Also more likely to transmit to others in the household.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

@bigblackjacobin

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

Ireland = Cold Hawaii Thank's for reading, I won't be checking replies, good night

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

1 year

@mattyglesias I happen to actually care about effective math education. It changed my life, opened almost all the opportunities I've gotten, and it's largely what I try to do for a living. I have real reasons to be pissed about your low effort trolling of earnest efforts to improve it

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

2 years

ICYMI, 2 years into the biggest pandemic in a century there is still only- *leans into microphone* 🗣️📢 ONE COUNTRY IN THE ENTIRE WORLD that does actual, statistical, random sampling Every other government in the world is acting like they're stuck in medieval times

John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

2 years

A reminder that UK is only country in the world with regular, reliable data on total infection numbers (not just cases), thanks to @ONS random sample representative survey. It’s vital that the survey’s funding is extended. Without it, we’re flying blind

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

@0xeinar Yeah, the 1st order problem seems to be the sheer number of people using the label as a badge to mean a combination of "unlike other people I change my beliefs based on evidence" and "don't ask me how I got these assumptions, they're simply My Priors"

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

1 year

Statisticians and economists sometimes refer to this as omitted variable bias. It's not some fringe research idea from a handful of academics, it's very well known (we just revisited it while applying causal models to algorithmic fairness)

Omitted-variable bias - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

holy shit, I didn't even notice this in the story originally Marietta says of the ~$15/hr level of expanded UI pay "this is the best possible pay of their lives they could possibly get, to be unemployed" And @kellymcb says no one in this story had any agenda 🙄🤥

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

1 year

In our paper, the "red car" example shows just how wrong this can be The example shows, mathematically, that enforcing a color blind policy (as SCOTUS keeps insisting) could actually cause more unfairness -- even in a world that was previously fair

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

🚫 Absolutely no identity politics for nerds 🚫 Scientists suck at politics, wonks are unpopular, life long teacher's pets are not a political bloc that can win elections and if they don't like that they should learn to be cool instead

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Something I've become more convinced of recently by reading more about cultural evolution: institutions are extremely (1) important, (2) stupid, (3) easy to damage, (4) difficult to build or repair

Wojtek Kopczuk 🇵🇱🇺🇦

@wwwojtekk

4 years

This encapsulates why I hope he's done. I disagree with many of his policies and actions, but that's true about almost any politician (with varying intensity). Fundamentally though he's an existential threat to the institutions of the country. He damages them every single day

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

I’m learning all about economics from the verified experts on twitter dot com #EconTwitter

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

The election of Joe Biden has emboldened radical centrists. He makes them feel safe to express their hatred of the left again. They won, but instead of graciously uniting they're taunting and gaslighting... It's like the cruelty is the point

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@estarianne @gwensnyderPHL @studentactivism I've never seen anything about any of the people on that podcast sending anyone threats It's true that comedy can be gross, for example John Oliver's show often says/does gross stuff for the humor, but the NYT doesn't write columns about him being divisive or whatever

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Blackstone—the leveraged buyout firm profiting from burning the Amazon rainforest and sharing information with ICE, whose billionaire CEO is a good friend of trump and who has donated to Mitch McConnell and George Dubya—just bought @oatly ...

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

In my opinion, @Stanford should investigate Bhattacharya's scandalous conduct and consider actions like forcing a retraction, if not more

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

[the galaxy's smartest species, which has set up all its infrastructure and institutions in ways that guarantee constant transmission of viruses and permanent seasonal influenza pandemics, experiencing just one (1) more virus] OMG how could this happen? lab leak??

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Bernie would have won, again

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@chrislhayes Called this as it happened

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

2 years

I had this wild idea when I was PhD student studying statistics In seminars/consults, it seemed a lot of confusion and disagreements resulted from a failure to distinguish between two different modes of practice Statistics was really two different fields!... 🧵

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 months

@tabletmag If a statistical analysis showed the casualty numbers did not follow a certain stochastic pattern that would not necessarily be evidence that they are fake. There are other possible explanations, e.g. resource constraints on processing new counts could spread them more evenly

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Placing ethical constraints on science is not remotely new or controversial But I'm also struck by the fact that many people in #ML or at #NeurIPS2020 like to believe they're doing "objective science" when they're designing and engineering systems to profit from human data

Pedro Domingos

@pmddomingos

4 years

It's alarming that NeurIPS papers are being rejected based on "ethics reviews". How do we guard against ideological biases in such reviews? Since when are scientific conferences in the business of policing the perceived ethics of technical papers?

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

A lot of things are true, too many things. in my opinion

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

@ESCochrane @daveweigel nothing but respect for MY president

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

@zackbeauchamp Growth If we get to define the term as some cartoon version of what people believe about it, may as well go with the idea that the economy can keep growing exponentially forever

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

@Lemonade_Inc That's interesting, considering the academic fields that study this have not reached a consensus about what it would mean for an algorithm to not use any of those variables or proxies for them

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

2 months

@asmamk Funny how @mattyglesias and @davidshor want message discipline from every one of the tens/hundreds of thousands of random (young) people in campus protests, but apparently not from professional politicians and their professional spokespeople

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

imagine revealing to the entire world how incredibly privileged and out of touch you are by tweeting publicly that your choice in the presidential primary is influenced by things like seeing random people on the internet tweeting emojis at a politician

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

On this specific social issue the political mainstream in the UK is more extreme right than the Republican governor of Arkansas, a state that voted for trump by 62%-35% last year

Samantha Schmidt

@schmidtsam7

3 years

Breaking: Arkansas governor is issuing a veto of the ban on gender-affirming medical care for transgender minors.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Can’t go wrong with the classics

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

I backtested the @WhiteHouseCEA Kevin Hassett's "cubic fit" method to show how completely insane it is Depending on which day (in March-April) you use the method, you can get projections of anywhere from 0 to over 30,000 DAILY #COVID19 deaths in late April... Thread (1/3)

CEA45 Archived

@WhiteHouseCEA45

4 years

To better visualize observed data, we also continually update a curve-fitting exercise to summarize COVID-19's observed trajectory. Particularly with irregular data, curve fitting can improve data visualization. As shown, IHME's mortality curves have matched the data fairly well.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Did my first grad school application 12 years ago. Applied to 11 places, got into 1. There were so many times my life came 🤏 close to going in a different direction I want to live in a world where getting to think about math is an experience accessible to everyone

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Went down an internet rabbit hole of amateur data analyses supposedly showing evidence of vote counting fraud First thing to note: you won't see many people doing this sort of thing without anonymity because it's pretty embarrassing quality work... (1/n)

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@GamstatC @economeager @andrei_mntn @larsiusprime Version with Brits and Aussies:

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@lastpositivist "Logic is astrology for men" - Liam Bright

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

This shouldn’t need to be said If someone is wearing a mask *they could be trying to protect you from catching a cold from them*, but this doesn’t occur because the glorification of greed and selfishness in late stage capitalist societies is so harmful

David Kronig @davekronig.bsky.social

@DaveKronig

3 years

Hi hello, it's me, your immunocompromised friend. I'm fully vaxxed but still gonna be wearing masks for a long time because there's insufficient data to know whether the vaccine will actually protect me. Please be kind about it and don't make me justify my caution.

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

@PaulSkallas Dying horribly from disease is, after all, lindy

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

Don't know why people are reacting to the remdesivir news like it's a miracle. Suppose it does reduce mortality by 30%, as estimated in this one study (which contradicts others) Then we have an IFR of maybe 0.56-1% instead of 0.8-1.5% It'll save lives, but not a game changer

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

Wealthy countries don't want global vaccination because it gives them another excuse for tight border "security" They are addicted to that feeling of control They will drive the entire world into climate disaster and then not allow the refugees to cross their borders

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

thinking about coronavirus counts and unemployment claim numbers and remembering that scene from Chernobyl where the guy says radiation levels aren't too high because the decimeter only says 3.6, and it turns out 3.6 is just the highest level the meter can say

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

1 year

It's another sad day for the US as SCOTUS reaffirms their commitment to racism (and/or deliberate ignorance of statistics, logic, etc) Since I'd done some research related to the topic I wanted to add my voice to those denouncing the #AffirmativeAction ruling. It's bad (🧵end)

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

🤨 echo chambers are lindy but not very anti-fragile 🤔

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

More clarification than what fits in 1 tweet: "Marketplaces" are not the same thing as capitalism. But as long as we have capitalism--in the knowledge economy or anywhere, really--the marketplace for ideas can always be manipulated by the extreme $ concentration of capitalists

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

Going for a Lindy walk

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

"which Biden didn't even espouse..." 🤨🤔🙄 Come on man, you're giving yourself infinite degrees of freedom. You're worse than an astrologer, because not only can you explain away anything, you also insist that you're one of the few people who *doesn't* do exactly that

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

@jasnonaz @PatrickRuffini There’s no mass transit in China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, etc

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

3 years

Theory: the new #COVID19 variant outbreak is a consequence of keeping schools open (starting 2021 with a bang by making myself the mortal enemy of all professionals who are also parents with school aged children)

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Joshua Loftus

@joftius

4 years

investors: "EBITDAC?" gimme a break, you can't just pretend your company should be valued as if covid never happened also investors: *value the entire market as if covid isn't happening*

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