Last night’s strikes in Crimea are more important than you may think and they make it clear that Ukraine has a plan that they have been working on for years.
They started with the truck attack which knocked out sections of road and rail for months.
A lot of footage of the Kerch Bridge explosion circulating on Russian and Ukrainian social media. This one and the one above appear to me security camera footage of the moment of the blast, which Russia’s anti-terror committee claims was caused by a trunk that exploded.
Slowly, and unrealised by some, Ukraine has put a massive cost on logistics to Crimea. The Russian position there is becoming less tenable, and this will create an opening for follow-on actions, as will the consistent destruction of air defence.
Watch this space, as they say.
Overnight russia has lost 2 out of its 3 Rail Ferries in the Black Sea.
Conro Trader photo 1 damaged.
1 crew injured
Avangard photo 2 damaged ran aground to prevent sinking.
4 crew injured
Annekov photo 3 undamaged
Also last night a pilot boat the
Mechta was sunk
4
Next there was an attack on the bridge supports causing structural damage.
These attacks left the rail bridge nearly unusable for logistics, which forced Russia into using ferries for heavy logistics.
Ukrainian Intelligence Consulting Molfar has done an amazing piece I recommend reading on rail traffic over the Kerch bridge and has concluded it is no longer being used by the Russian Military.
In short the rail bridge has had virtually zero rail traffic. A single train was
Ukraine has had a long term strike campaign with both missiles and USV’s aimed at taking out the Ropucha class landing ships that were handling many of the ferrying activities.
Novocherkassk (BDK-46) BDA Feodosia Crimea, Ukraine
TLDR; The Ropucha-class landing ship Novocherkassk (BDK-46) has been destroyed with high confidence.
The port infrastructure has suffered some minor damage; however, the port appears operational. A smoke plume and oil slick are
One of the Russian volunteer efforts I profile on a regular basis, KatyaValya that is based in Donbas, is displaying their recent purchase of DJI drones and Starlink terminals.
H/T to
@giK1893
for being my favourite basement dweller. 🙏
Also a note to say
@Schizointel
has been following these actions in more detail than most for a long time, well done.
If you want to know why we are seeing fewer satellite images in OSINT posts this is it. ⬇️
People are stealing the content, the images no longer meet TOS and satellite companies are cracking down on the original purchasers of images because of these actions. We are losing access
real OSINT begins when random news organizations or bloggers copy-paste and crop your Sat image worth thousands of dollars and break the TOS by removing the provider label
Some people spoke about Dugin's letter from yesterday, here's the full translation. He states that Russian authorities reached the limit of what they can surrender. He blames Putin directly for the failures and low-key threatens him with death.
This is Ryan, Ryan and his team are helping to demine Ukraine. We're going to chat with Ryan on Sunday in
@HelloMrBond
's space to find out more about mines and the ways the Russian's make this more dangerous.
Link to the space below, I hope you’ll come and join us! ⬇️⏰🎙️
Ukraine needs defences, how do you dig defences? With excavators.
@Teoyaomiquu
has already provided excavators to some units and more have requested, if you want to help see his post below.
You too can defend Ukraine!🫵
My dear friends and followers, I have an important and somewhat unusual fundraiser to announce. It's very important, and I am asking for your help to spread the word and donate. Please read a small interview from Ukrainian commanders and the details below. The donation link is in
Russia has a fuel problem, a month ago there were reports that farmers in some areas had run out of fuel and had to stop harvesting. There have been unconfirmed reports that there are fuel shortages in other areas and this export restriction points to a broader problem.
🧵⬇️
For a long time now I, & those I work with have believed that Snake Island & Türkiye are the key to making the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) work & today seems like a good time to discuss why that is & its implications for what may come next for Ukrainian grain exports
This
@TheEconomist
piece echos what I have been saying for months now. Everything about the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the decisions Putin makes is meant to control Ukraine's economy & stress allies' support for them. We cannot continue to allow him to control the situation.
This is the port of Reni on the Danube river, you can see from the satellite images that this row of grain storage was targeted in last night's drone attack.
Location: 45.417334, 28.288540
H/T to
@MT_Anderson
for the images and starting the search.
@Osinttechnical
If you live on a farm you are used to ramping up your traplines and bait stations when the temperature drops. Mice always move inside and if you can't keep them under control at the start you are in for a bad winter.
🔴 Today, Oct 25, the tactical aviation of russia discharged four explosive devices in the area of the trade route to the ports of Big Odesa, announced Natalia Gumeniuk, spokesperson of the Operational Command "South".
#russiaUkraineWar
#russiaIsATerroristState
Hello, everyone. Our team in Kharkiv needs your help in delivering engineering equipment (excavators) and protecting our Bohdana howitzers.
Please, listen to and watch the video we have created to explain why this is urgently needed.
Our team embarked on a trip to design and
I don’t live in Odesa, not even in Ukraine. A few months ago I downloaded the air raid app so I knew when to look for port infrastructure damage. The last three weeks have been near constant air raids.
I am exhausted, I hate looking at my phone to see more alerts. I hate having
Honest to God, all these tweets of people's kids learning to cook with
@dinnerwithjulie
is about the only thing that doesn't make me want to scream cry right now and I might be enjoying it even more than her.
#kidscancookwithJulie
This announcement is being circulated and while it matches my expectations it is NOT who I would expect to announce it and is contrary to the information both governments released yesterday. If you have seen more from official sources other than this please share them below.
What happened in the Black Sea between August 4th and 5th?
It was a lot so I put it all in a thread for you. 🚢💥
In the early hours of August 4th there were reports of Ukrainian USVs near Novorossiysk.
Possibly an attack by an Ukrainian USV near Novorossiysk occurred. Footage which can be geolocated to Myskhako appeared showing a burning vehicle near the shore line.
Coordinates:
44°39'53"N 37°48'11"E
If confirmed then it would prove that Ukrainian USVs are increasing their
Ukrainian maritime kamikaze drones had to cover at least 702 km from the Odesa Oblast to attack Russian naval base in Novorossiysk on 4 August
A Russian landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak was seriously damaged during that drone attack.
Map by
0 days left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative,
1004 ships outbound carrying 32,861,707MT
The final ship of the BSGI was inspected this afternoon in the North Istanbul Anchorage. Many thanks to our friends at the JCC for sharing these pictures.
There's a lot being made of Russia and Ukraine's announcements regarding ships headed to controlled ports being considered targets. No one wants to see commercial ships targeted. But, please do not lose sight of the fact that Russia started this on 24Feb22.
Remember that on the first day of the 2022 invasion Ru issued a prohibition on navigation in the NW Black Sea. Defined area down to the parallel 45-21 N, and from 0400 hr Feb 24 2022.
Several 3rd-country ships were subsequently attacked, attributed to Ru
Effective blockade
🚨 My source at the UN has confirmed that there is officially a renewal. They expect to have an official release soon.
1+ days left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
*A previous version of this tweet confirmed 120 days and I will wait for the official release to confirm.
Official Elysée communiqué, confirming “delivery for the first time of French-built light combat tanks” to Ukraine. Interesting that it stresses that this is a first, as Macron has long refused to get into a numbers race, and sets it in context of France “increasing” military aid
A screenshot we've been waiting to see. Headed out are Osprey S, Ramus, Brave Commander, and Bonita. Bonita and Ramus have been in port since the start of the war. Headed in are Zelek Star, Kafkametler and Propus. Brave Commander carries a load for the World Food Program.
What are the take-aways from Zelensky’s visit?
-Russia does not have control in the Western Black Sea.
-Russia may not have been aware of these movements,
-they were unable to respond in time,
-they were not confident in their ability to strike
-or Ukraine sends small boats
❗️First civilian vessels use the temporary corridor to reach Ukrainian ports ❗️
After using a temporary corridor to allow ships blocked by Russian aggression to leave the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi, the bulk carriers RESILIENT AFRICA and AROYAT confirmed their
For the first time
#UkriCor
has surpassed
#BSGI
statistics in terms of ships inbound and outbound. This is especially exciting because we're measuring against the same time period in 2022 when the BSGI was still operating at a higher capacity.
I have new graphs to help visualize the data, starting tonight with delivery countries, delivery data and departures. So far Spain has taken the largest number of deliveries, based on BSGI data it’s likely that the majority of these deliveries have been corn.
#UkriCor
4h roboty później...
odtworzyłem i geolokalizowałem trasę i straty jednej z dwóch z kolumn 47 brygady zmechanizowanej. Korzystałem oczywiście też z pracy innych OSINTowców ale wiele podawanych lokalizacji było niedokładnych a miejsce rozwalenia M2 i L2A6 błędnie.
Stop klatki z
@hubrod
@Ben_S_Harper
You would think a kid who grew up in politics would know all that. Unless of course he was trying to make a disingenuous ploy to blame all his government's problems on "the other guys". Wonder where he learned that...
1 day left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative,
1004 (+1) ships outbound carrying 32,861,707 MT
The last ship in the port of Odesa, the Turkish flagged TQ SAMSUN loaded with corn and rapeseed headed for The Netherlands, sailed out this morning.
The first vessel left Odessa port since 16July end of
#BlackSeaGrainInitiative
Container ship JOSEPH SCHULTE (Hong Kong flag) is proceeding through corridor established for civilian vessels to/from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine. This transport corridor will be primarily used to
There are 8 days left in the Black Sea Grain Initiative & Ukraine has a plan. They have been working hard to demonstrate it is possible. All they need now are some allies who benefit greatly from the deal to put some skin in the game. Erdogan seems poised to do so.
#Jordan
’s air defenses are ready to intercept and shoot down any
#Iranian
drones or aircraft that violate its airspace, two regional security sources say.
Bulgaria expands their ban on Russian ships.
"access to the sea and river ports of Bulgaria will be prohibited for all ships — regardless of the flag under which they are sailing — if they are certified by the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping."
HIMARS are clearly helpful but the bigger story here really is intel, imagine needing to process enough information each day to be able to continually give the HIMARS operators targets.
@UN
If I were Ukraine I would continue with inspections of ships & possibly even publicizing cargo data as the BSGI does currently. They have nothing to hide & demonstrating to the world that your economy is viable & they are open for business is important.
Finding it hard to keep up to date? There’s a lot of news and it’s hard to know if you can trust it. I’ve compiled a list of headlines and references for each to help you stay informed.
#Ukraine
#Headlines
#DigitalResistance
Many have suggested Erdogan has changed sides, I don’t think that’s a reasonable interpretation. Erdogan will always play for Erdogan & if he wants to continue stalling Sweden’s ascension to appease the homefront, this is an alternate step to appeasing the West while growing his
Turkey believes Ukraine deserves to become a member of NATO, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said at a press conference with Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul as the leaders expressed hope for the extension of the Black Sea grain deal
⛴️ 3 vessels loaded with grain and iron ore left ports Chornomorsk and Pivdenniy, 5 new cargo vessels is waiting to be moored in ports for loading.
Bulk carriers AZARA, YING HAO 01, ENEIDA (flags 🇱🇷Liberia and 🇵🇼Palau) is using temporary corridor established by the Ukrainian
In three days Ukraine has shipped another 300,000 MT of grain out of their ports, nearly ⅓ of what left in the first month. 56 outbound ships carrying 1.3MMT of grain and the numbers continue to increase to the point of clogging ports.🌾🚢
The frequency of videos showing what appear to be Ukrainian USVs operating in the Black Sea is increasing. If you assume that, like other weapons, we only see a portion of the data how often is Ukraine attacking or patrolling with them? What does it mean for BSF operations?
@MercedesGlobal
That’s the sort of response that ensures I will not be voting Liberal. Take my national security seriously and quit acting like toddlers
@liberal_party
"Russia has run out of parts to repair oil refineries
To solve the problem, the government will radically soften the requirements for repairing refineries: they will be allowed to install “handicraft” parts."
В России закончились детали для ремонта нефтеперерабатывающих заводов
Чтобы решить проблему, правительство радикально смягчит требования к ремонту НПЗ: на них разрешат устанавливать детали "кустарного" производства.
There’s been a lot of discussion about agriculture in Ukraine in recent weeks and this thread will give you the basic info you need as a starting point.
Moreover, everytime the West tries to resolve one of the issues, Russia says “not good enough”. When Ukraine agreed to the
@UN
’s deal to transit ammonia through the pipeline, Russia blew it up.
The ammonia pipeline from Russia to Ukraine’s largest port of Yuzhny was attacked & Russia first said the repair time was 1-3 months but now says “a long time”. Which is moot point because the repairs are in Ukraine but within Russian shelling distance.
You may not realise how many sleepless nights and hours spent researching
@YorukIsik
and others who attempt to track stolen Ukrainian grain put in to recording Russia's crimes. When you see these posts I encourage you to RT them and make sure everyone knows what Russia is doing.
Stolen
#wheat
from occupied
#Crimea
: Russian state owned United Shipbuilding’s Astrakhan based subsidiary Crane Marine Contractors’ Russian flag bulker Matros Koshka transits Bosphorus en route to occupied Sevastopol after delivering stolen Ukrainian wheat to
#Tartus
#Syria
#OATT
❗️BREAKING❗️
A presidential decree "On a special procedure for making settlements under foreign trade contracts for the supply of Russian agricultural products" was signed
Japan has contributed to humanitarian demining efforts in Ukraine by donating a new set of equipment, including vehicles, metal detectors, and containers for fire extinguishing liquid. This support from
@jica_direct_en
and 🇯🇵 company holds significant value for us.
I am so damn proud of this man and how relentless he is. In case you missed it, we have started diverting any funds sent to our Buy Me a Coffee to support Vlad's work, if you wish to contribute you can do so here:
In the first days of the full-scale invasion I can remember spending hours watching Russian bombs falling on Kharkiv from a hilltop CCTV camera. I felt consistently helpless to watch the bombs fall, the fires burn and light up the darkness, and a city be destroyed.
That's a lot
Not only has Ukraine not had the power issues we saw last year while Russia targeted the power grid but in February and March they have exported power to EU member states to help them deal with fluctuations. Obviously this is in part due to warmer weather but the work done to
It's very clear that war in Ukraine is a longer timeline than hoped & will continue to be so. In order for Ukraine to win, their economy has to be functional & if you aren't paying attention to the really impressive work done to sustain it you are missing some of the best work
🇷🇺BULK CARRIER MIKHAIL NENASHEV🇷🇺
Another Grain Thief making her way back to the Black Sea. MIKHAIL NENASHEV spotted in the Aegean near 🇬🇷Kounoupi. After trying to hide her destination of Latakia, she will most likely be back in Avlita in Sevastopol to steal more Ukrainian grain
Photos reportedly from the Sig, take these as unconfirmed with some 🧂. It’s likely we will see Russia try to frame this incident as an attack on a civilian ship though it is not.
I often talk about how I don't track grain ships by myself and have some great team members as well as some amazing folks who have helped in the past. Today I'm struck by how absolutely fantastic it is to have a very, very busy day at work and come home to much of the work done
On the 500th day of full-scale invasion Türkiye allowed the defenders of Azovstal to return home. The original agreement for their release from Russian captivity reportedly required them to stay in Türkiye for the extent of the war.
Повертаємося додому з Туреччини й повертаємо додому наших героїв.
Українські воїни Денис Прокопенко, Святослав Паламар, Сергій Волинський, Олег Хоменко, Денис Шлега нарешті будуть із рідними.
Слава Україні!
——
We are returning home from Türkiye and bringing our heroes home.
The UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative will help to avoid food shortages worldwide.
Russia, Ukraine and Türkiye signed the deal in Istanbul on Friday.
The mask drops!
Here is what
#Turkey
and
#Russia
want out of moving
#grain
from
#Ukraine
out of the Black Sea: Turkey wants a discount. Russia wants more warships and fewer mines.
Also, Russian spin is at full speed.
🧵Details below. Background note⬇️
How is Russia pretending to save the world? 🧵
We’ve been hearing for nearly a week now that Turkey and Russia were in talks to open Ukrainian ports. Details have emerged and the proposal starts with Odessa.