Thord Are Iversen @The_Lookout_N Twitter profile

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

1/6 Some thoughts on possible Russian nuclear signaling, and how to isolate what matters from bluster, propaganda and really the bad journalism out there First: Listen to what the US and NATO says about Russian nuclear posture. As late as today, the US have said still no changes

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@The_Lookout_N

5 months

The Norwegian Chief of Defence: "We are running out of time" "There's a window now that might last one, two, maybe three years" "We don't know what will happen with Russia in three years time"

- Vi har dårlig tid

Norge har bare få år på seg til å bygge opp et forsvar som bedre kan møte et aggressivt Russland, mener forsvarssjef Eirik Kristoffersen.

www.dagbladet.no

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

Denmark and Norway jointly donates 8000 155 shells to Ukraine. "Norway donates the shells, while Denmark donates the associated fuzes, propellant bags and primer cartridges." The Norwegian part of the package comes from Armed Forces stocks.

Norway and Denmark to cooperate on artillery ammunition donation

Norway and Denmark will donate 8,000 artillery rounds to Ukraine. Norway donates the shells, while Denmark donates the associated fuzes, propellant bags and primer cartridges.

www.regjeringen.no

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

9 months

1/3 A thread on a Sunday: After some deliberation, I have decided to leave the anonymous cover and start writing under my full name. I am Thord Are Iversen, a former Navy officer that have been struggling with chronic illness for close to a decade.

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@The_Lookout_N

8 months

Norwegian independent seismic monitoring foundation NORSAR: "NORSAR have detected a probable explosion along the Finnish coast of the Baltic Sea at 01:20 (local time in Finland) on 8th October 2023. This explosion was detected using stations in Finland."

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

8 months

@HamWa07 @selshevneren Yes, prohibited by law. Civilian airlines have to inform passengers that photographing the military side of Evenes illegal on every flight. It was done on this flight too, in English and Norwegian.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 months

1/ Rather direct message by the Norwegian Foreign Minister in Kyiv today. "None of us does enough." "We all need to do more, we need to do better. We need to think more strategically, about how we can help Ukraine to win and hence Russia to loose"

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

6/6 Western media bears a large responsibility now. Click-bait, fear-mongering, retransmitting propaganda and sloppy work should be avoided The way to inform and prepare the public is through calm, open debate based on facts, featuring those who know what they are talking about

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

The first Leo2 documented lost and we will see more destroyed Western equipment in the days and weeks ahead. This means the West need to keep the donations going. To those dooming, some of us have tried to say this offensive would be hard, bloody work. It's still early.

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker

@UAWeapons

1 year

#Ukraine : For the first time, a Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 tank was destroyed by the Russian army during the recent Ukrainian attack near Novopokrovka, #Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Here is an attempt to create an illustrative map on where we have Army level concentrations, currently in the process of moving to jump-off positions near the border. This is my personal assessment as of 1200z today, February 13th.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

1 year

New Norwegian donation, in close cooperation with the UK: 8 MLRS and 3 ARTHUR counter battery radars. As I read the press-release, 8 Norwegian mothballed M270s are going to the UK, to enable them to donate from their stocks to Ukraine.

Noreg støttar Ukraina med langtrekkjande artilleri og radarar

Noreg gir tre artillerilokaliseringsradarar og åtte langtrekkjande rakettartilleri av typen MLRS. Donasjonane skjer i tett samarbeid med Storbritannia.

www.regjeringen.no

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

1 year

There are nuclear related rumors circulating this evening. For possible changes in Russian non-strategic nuclear posture, I do think Washington DC, Brussels or some other Western capital would tell us if something was stirring. Don't listen to fear-mongering rumors.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

1 year

1/2 An important agreement on cooperation has been signed between the Danish, Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian Air Forces, covering all aspects. According Chief RNoAF, the goal is to operate as a combined "single Airforce".

Skal avskrekke Putin med «formidabel» nordisk luftstyrke

En luftstyrke av dette kaliber vil ha en «sterk avskrekkende effekt mot Russland i hele Norden», mener ekspert.

www.aftenposten.no

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

5/6 Western statements clearly indicate that the threat is taken seriously, and a lot of resources are involved in monitoring Russian nuclear posture. The situation is serious, but succumbing to fear isn't helpful. It's exactly what the Russians want to accomplish.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

9 months

3/3 I'm not connected to any institutions or employers. If I where to choose a title, I'd say "independent defense analyst", though I do this as a hobby. To me, going public is a big step but I feel it's the right thing to do at this point in time.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

10 months

"The first of twelve Tomahawk missiles assigned to Umbozero-South cut across the runway at a shallow angle, then the blunt nose cover sprang off the airframe, and several hundred small bomblets began to sprinkle over the area."

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

The situation in Kharkiv is developing rapidly, and it's not easy to keep up with the pace of events. Russian OSINT Telegram channel Rybar published this map today. Treat it as unconfirmed for now, but this may very well be fairly accurate.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

9 months

Imagine a country bordering Russia deciding to get rid of the RBS-70 sometime around 2005...

OSINTtechnical

@Osinttechnical

9 months

Additional footage of the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade downing a Russian Ka-52 outside of Robotyne with a RBS-70 MANPADS.

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

1/4 The Norwegian Chief of Defence, General Eirik Kristoffersen, gave these casualty estimates on TV2 today, though with caveats: Russian mil: 180 000 KIA/WIA Ukrainian mil: 100 000 KIA/WIA Ukrainian civilian: 30 000 killed Other important quotes follow

Forsvarssjefen: Så mange liv har gått tapt i Ukraina-krigen

Snart ett år etter Putins angrepskrig er det over 300.000 drepte og skadde soldater og sivile, anslår forsvarssjef Eirik Kristoffersen.

www.tv2.no

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

6 months

1/9 Those in the West arguing for negotiations does seem to overlook how the situation may look to those at the top in Russia: The Ukrainian offensive has been blunted, dysfunctional US politics being a serious obstruction for future aid and slow Western industrial mobilization

Francis Scarr

@francis_scarr

6 months

Putin doesn’t sound like a man who’s interested in a negotiated peace in Ukraine: “They’re running out [of weapons]… They don’t have anything, they have no future. But we do have a future.” (This is a newly released clip from his Kremlin awards ceremony for troops on Friday)

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

Norway has donated 10 000 155mm shells to Ukraine. The shells comes from Norwegian Armed Forces stocks and have already been delivered.

Norwegian Armed Forces | Forsvaret

@Forsvaret_no

1 year

På oppdrag fra regjeringen har Forsvaret sendt 10 000 artillerigranater til Ukraina. Alt materiellet er nå sendt fra Norge. Les mer: #ukraine

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@The_Lookout_N

5 months

Director of Swedish Military Intelligence: "We assess that Russia as soon as possible will increase it's military capabilities following their losses in Ukraine. It would be a mistake to believe that temporary reductions in Russian capabilities are buying us breathing room"

Amanda Wollstad 🌻

@AWollstad

5 months

Vi bedömer att Ryssland så snart man kan kommer att öka sin militära förmåga efter förlusterna i Ukraina. Det vore ett misstag att tro att tillfälliga begränsningar i Rysslands förmåga kommer köpa oss andrum, säger C MUST Thomas Nilsson på #fofrk

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

2/6 I consider testing of new systems such as Poseidon and SARMAT as routine, even if Russian propaganda says something else. These are long running programs, not yet in operational service, so there will be tests. Such tests does NOT involve live nuclear warheads.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

3/6 Examples of what should be treated as nuclear signaling: Increased SSBN patrols Mobile ICBM exercises Larger LRA exercises Strategic exercises (Grom) involving test firing of ICBMs and SLBMs in operational service. Russia did conduct Grom just prior to the invasion

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Some naval scenes from exercise Cold Response. Photos: Alexander Undrum Fathi / Forsvaret

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

Yes, this is nice! Norwegian F-35 operating from a Finnish roadbase. Contrary to popular belief 10-15 years ago, dispersal wasn't outdated.

Ilmavoimat

@FinnishAirForce

9 months

Tänään #Baana23 -harjoituksessa Norjan🇳🇴 ilmavoimien F-35-monitoimihävittäjä laskeutui Tervon maantietukikohtaan. Tämä on tiettävästi ensimmäinen kerta, kun #F35A nähdään maantietukikohdassa. #ilmavoimat @Luftforsvaret

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

It's official! Norway will donate 8 Leopard 2s and up to 4 support variants (engineering, bridge layer, recovery) to Ukraine and allocate 250 mil NOK for spare parts and ammunition.

Forsvarsdepartement

@Forsvarsdep

1 year

- Norge skal donere åtte stridsvogner og inntil fire støttevogner til Ukraina. I tillegg øremerker vi midler til ammunisjon og reservedeler, sier forsvarsminister Bjørn Arild Gram (Sp). #Ukraine #StandWithUkraine

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

1/ My initial assessment on the damage to the Rostov-na-Donu based on the new photos, using @CovertShores cutaway to mark compartments with holes. TLDR: Likely a total loss.

CIT (en)

@CITeam_en

9 months

Per @The_Lookout_N , even though the extent of fire damage inside is not visible, it seems more reasonable to build a new submarine rather than repair this one 2/2

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@The_Lookout_N

17 days

1/2 I'll begin this with the caveat, if reports indeed are correct, but: Attacking this kind of target isn't a particularly good idea. It is in everyone's best interest that Russia's ballistic missile warning system works well, especially in times of tension.

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

First ever landing by a F-35A on a roadbase.

Norwegian Armed Forces | Forsvaret

@Forsvaret_no

9 months

Here’s a video of the first landing 🛫 @FinnishAirForce @NATO

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

4/6 Further up the ladder: Removal of non-strategic nuclear warheads from storage, with the next step in this chain; delivering and uploading them (Iskander units, ships, subs, aircraft etc) Even if this is done, it doesn't have to mean nuclear use is imminent. Geography matters

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

New Norwegian donation: "They have now been shipped from Norway. Ukrainian operators have been trained in the use of Hellfire by Norwegian instructors."

Forsvarsdepartement

@Forsvarsdep

2 years

Norway will donate Hellfire missiles to Ukraine. The donation includes approximately 160 missiles, launching pads and guidance units. Ukraine will also receive night-vision equipment drawn from Armed Forces inventories.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

9 months

2/3 Breaking cover doesn't signal any major changes to what I do or how I do things, neither here on Twitter or on Substack. I hope my writings and analysis, based on the plethora of information openly available in 2023, helps inform the public debate on the topics I cover.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

ATGMs against ships recieves some attention these days. Though heavier than most ATGMs, here we have Norwegian Coastal Rangers with up a portable setup for the AGM-114 Hellfire. This concept is also used by Sweden with the Hellfire, and Finland with the Spike-ER. 📸: Forsvaret

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Norway, European nations depending on our gas, and NATO, should now clearly state that if Russia does anything to our gas infrastructure, it means grave consequences (Article 5) European economies hangs in the balance. It's time to make a stand and remove any percieved ambiguity

Oliver Alexander

@OAlexanderDK

2 years

First footage from the gas leaks in Nord Stream 1 and 2. That is definitely a massive hole or complete rupture judging by the diameter of the surface gas plume. Basically impossible for any other causes beyond sabotage.

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

A Norwegian comedy classic, here with English subtitles.

Thomas Fjeld

@Fomechka

9 months

Norwegian comedy sketch from 1978, still highly relevant today. We always knew they were lying scumbags. I am teaching this sketch to all Ukrainian refugees that I come across, arriving in Norway. I always tell them it's essential knowledge. #RussiaIsATerroristState .

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

New Sea of Azov NOTAM, going active at midnight: "Tempo Danger Area SFC - Unlimited""

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

1/3 Some thoughts as we enter the night on D+4: The setbacks the Russians have suffered until now, has likely caused them to reorganize and resupply today, while new plans are being made. We have seen some indications today that a shift in Russian conduct of operations is coming

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Another Russian citizen has been arrested for flying drones in Norway, this time in Tromsø. On one of his cameras held photos of Kirkenes airport (also where the Border Guard garrison is) and of a Air Force helo.

Nok en russer pågrepet for ulovlig droneflyvning

En russisk mann er varetektsfengslet i to uker siktet for å ha fløyet drone i Norge. PST sier de har undersøkt flere mistenkelige hendelser den siste tida.

www.nrk.no

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

1 year

74 years after Norway became a founding member, Finland has joined NATO. If everyone gets their act together, Sweden will follow shortly. From a Norwegian perspective the geography just changed, offering new possibilities, requiring new solutions to "old" problems. Welcome 🇫🇮

Corporal Frisk

@CorporalFrisk

1 year

No longer alone 💪 #StrongerTogether

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

3/3 Unfortunately this shift means that the level of death and destruction will increase. However, the excellent Ukrainian defensive effort so far, has galvanized the nation, and their high morale, and fighting spirit, is vital for what I fear lie ahead.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

If the reports of a downed Kh-55/AS-15 with a dummy nuclear warhead yesterday indeed are true, I remain a bit sceptical, one "boring" explanation seems to be overlooked: An older missile, without a warhead, may be used as a decoy, making Ukraine expend valuable SAMs.

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@The_Lookout_N

7 months

Thinking out loud, don't get angry: This isn't how I'd expect a 900t ship to look after being hit by a (anti-ship) missile with a 450kg warhead. Might the peculiarities of the Storm Shadow warhead explain this or is it there another explanation?

JR2

@JanR210

7 months

And without watermarks 👀👇

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

1 year

Suspect parts of this video could be of Shoigu visiting the 94th Arsenal in Omsk. If anyone wants to dig further, the first screenshot below may have been taken near pos 55.0198,73.40.

Rob Lee

@RALee85

1 year

Sergei Shoigu visited Omsktransmash for an inspection. The video shows a new batch of T-80BVM obr 2022 tanks, including one with a Nakidka coat and a roof screen, and BTR-70, 2S4, 2S5, D-30, 2B9, and other equipment in storage.

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@The_Lookout_N

3 years

The Director of the Norwegian Intelligence Service comes with a stark warning about the Russian buildup: "It looks like Russia is building up forces to carry out a military operation against Ukraine."

E-sjefen slår alarm: - Kan lede til krig i Ukraina

- Det er cirka 100.000 soldater støttet med avanserte og tunge våpen, sier etterretningssjef Nils Andreas Stensønes om den russiske styrkeoppbyggingen rundt Ukraina.

www.tv2.no

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

1 year

Russian GPS jamming, originating from Kola, has increased and is affecting commercial air traffic in Finnmark. Widerøe pilots have reported loss of GPS on 17 occasions in November, and so far 27 in December ( 1st - 20th).

Russerne jammer Widerøes GPS-er: – Skaper store problemer for oss

Kommunikasjonssjef Catharina Solli i Widerøe bekrefter overfor iFinnmark at de aldri har opplevd så store problemer med jamming av GPS-signalene fra russisk side som nå.

www.nettavisen.no

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Now we wait for the storm that seems inevitable. Remember, every hour that passes without the attack commencing, is an extra hour for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to make final defensive preparations.

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@The_Lookout_N

3 months

It has been obvious that a Ukrainian strike campaign using homegrown capabilities was coming and the West don't supply the right tools and doesn't approve hitting Russia proper with what has been supplied either. I think hitting refineries is good use of Ukr UAV capabilities.

Christopher Miller

@ChristopherJM

3 months

Scoop: The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning senior SBU and GUR officials that drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation. w/ @hallbenjamin @felschwartz @mylesmccormick_ via @FT

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@The_Lookout_N

5 months

"Russia has increased [armaments] production significantly. They have also collaborated with countries such as Iran and North Korea, which means that we can get a faster build-up of the Russian military than what we envisioned just last year."

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

The Swedish government announced a new aid package for Ukraine today, 500mill SEK worth of artillery shells, likely 155mm.

Lars Wilderäng

@Cornubot

2 years

Sveriges nya stödpaket till Ukraina – artilleriammunition för en halv miljard

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

Video from this side shows mostly fire damage, with the hull looking intact. The other side remains a question mark but if it's the same there, getting the Minsk out of the dock could be done relatively quickly. And to say it: Looks very much like a total loss.

Def Mon

@DefMon3

9 months

Video showing the damage of the Ropucha in Sevastopol.

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

Put this turret on a bog-standard truck, build a lot of them, and you have a good system for point defence against Shaheds & similar for Ukrainian cities and other rear area targets.

Nicholas Drummond

@nicholadrummond

9 months

Rheinmetall's revised turret for the 35 mm SkyRanger. Seen here on Boxer, it has a maximum rate of fire of 1,000+ rpm, a 4 km range using AHEAD airburst ammunition, and an AESA radar that can detect targets at 30 km. Show me another SHORAD system that's more lethal. I'll wait.

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@The_Lookout_N

5 months

Don't think I've seen video of actual decoy deployment before.

Aldin 🇧🇦

@aldin_aba

5 months

Russian X-101 cruise missile using flare decoys.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Regardless of how events play out from here on, we are watching history being made in real-time. Post Cold War Europe is now gone, the old, dark Europe of earlier times have returned, albeit in a 21st century wrapping. There are tough times ahead of us...

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@The_Lookout_N

8 months

Contrary to the "Black Sea Fleet is fleeing Sevastopol" narrative, not only do these images show quite a number of ships in Sevastopol yesterday. There is also a Kalibr capable ship there, a Karakurt-class, likely Tsiklon.

MT Anderson

@MT_Anderson

8 months

🇷🇺BSF SEVASTOPOL🇷🇺 0.5M📷 from midday 6 Oct 2023. Still quite a bit of firepower in port. 2x Krivak 1x Pr 22160 1x Karakurt 1x Tarantul 3x Ropucha 2x Bora (1 ship repair bay / 1 dry dock) 1x KILO 2x Intelligence (Vishnya/Yuriy Ivanov Classes)

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

This is one of the trawlers where the Norwegian Police found a locked compartment, with an operator sitting by this radio, under an inspection in Kirkenes.

Itamilradar

@ItaMilRadar

1 year

If it is true that appearances can be deceiving, this is particularly true for a Russian ship currently sailing in the Ionian Sea. 🕵️‍♀️ (thanks to @scandura , again) #NATO #Russia

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

A little reminder that we are sailing in uncharted waters, there are lots of moving pieces, many of them covered in fog Unknowns, fragmentary reports, misinformation and rumors are all in the mix, along with a big portion of uncertainty Stay sharp, maintain a wide field of view

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs just now: "The situation in Russia is dramatic" "We have over time stated that the war could lead to rapid changes and instability in Russia." "The timing was unexpected, but that something like this could happen is not surprising"

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

Looks like PDM-1M mines, used for their intended purpose until the water level dropped.

Evgen Vorobiov

@vorobyov

1 year

#Energodar , the occupied city where the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant is located: subsiding waters have exposed a row of russian mines installed to prevent a Ukrainian landing

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Hey @TwitterSupport , please unsuspend @DefMon3 promptly! His work, tracking and mapping the war, is invaluable!

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@The_Lookout_N

8 months

1/3 I don't cover Middle East events in detail, but what happened yesterday warrants a comment. Jumping to conclusions on something that has potential to become very significant, with real escalation risks, is dangerous. Something I wrote after the Przewodów incident last year:

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@The_Lookout_N

8 months

Comments by Nammo to the Norwegian Parliament, as part of the work on the 2024 defense budget, is an interesting read. Nammo assesses current European annual artillery shell production at below 500 000 shells a year. To cope with demand, both to sustain Ukraine and to refill

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

On developments in Transnistria/Moldova, I believe this is Russia creating noise and mischief just because they can. The Rus forces there, a few battalions, represents no real threat so in main I view this as a distraction. Also, any amphib op is highly unlikely at this stage

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

2/3 Moving forward we will likely see a more conventional Russian approach: More emphasis on large use artillery and fires. Larger units operating more coordinated: multiple BTGs / Regiments / Division on multiple axis, instead of solo-runs by a company or a battalion.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

The strike at Yavoriv, near Lviv, was reportedly carried out by LRA Tu-95s, likely with Kh-55s or Kh-101s Except for the opening days, we have seen relatively limited activity from LRA. I believe they have been withheld Munitions supplies are ample, so that's not the reason why

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

I'm not the first to say this, but imagine social media coverage on Omaha beach and of the battles around Caen, Salerno, first day at Tarawa or numerous other WW2 battles It's way too early to conclude on anything from the past days. This operation could take weeks, maybe months

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

For 5 weeks this summer, a group of Ukrainian Marines have trained with the Coastal Ranger Commando, focusing on small boat ops for infiltration, recce and raids. This wasn't a one way street. CRCDO has updated training plans based on Ukr experiences.

Ukrainske kystjegere i Nord-Norge: – Lært dem nødvendige ferdigheter

I dypeste hemmelighet har ukrainske marinesoldater trent i nordnorske fjorder i sommer, sammen med norske kystjegere. Særlig en ukrainsk operasjon har vekket oppsikt.

www.vg.no

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

I see I'm getting many new followers, and drawing a crowd now. Please bear with my jumps from the overall strategic picture, into the nitty-gritty details. Also remember that the situation is highly fluid, moving at a high pace,and ensrouded in fog. There are many unknowns.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

A good initiative: Two Norwegian veterans have raised funds to buy and deliver 2 x Skyranger R60 UAVs to the Ukrainian 53rd Mechanized Brigade. They have also established an organization, Veteran Aid Ukraine, to provide further support in the future.

Norske veteraner kjøper droner til Ukraina

Aktivistene samlet inn 100.000 kroner til to observasjonsdroner i løpet to uker.

www.forsvaretsforum.no

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

The Baltic Fleet Steregushchiy's Soobrazitelnyy and Stoikiy, and the tug Viktor Konetskiy, passed the Great Belt southbound today, returning to the Baltic. Photos: Kurt Pedersen / Facebook group: Under Broen

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@The_Lookout_N

8 months

What looks like a significant development in the Black Sea was reported by the Ukrainian Operational Command South today. Russian aviation has reportedly dropped 4 probable bottom mines and this seems to have halted traffic to/from Odessa today.

exit266

@exit266

8 months

Russia is mining the Ukrainian corridor by plane. This explains why no ships sailed today despite there being many ready to sail. #UkriCor

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@The_Lookout_N

10 months

I find this line of thinking unhelpful and problematic. It is rewriting the objectives of the offensive and vastly overestimating the impact long-range fires. The focus now should be what can be learned from this summer and make corrections iot do better in future operations.

GeoConfirmed

@GeoConfirmed

10 months

GeoConfirmed Information. A common misconception: Ukraïne doesn't need to reach the Sea of Azov, it just need to be able to get artillery fire on the 'land bridge'. And then it's "Kherson isolation" all over again: both supply lines, the land bridge and the Kerch Bridge will

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@The_Lookout_N

8 months

Swedish Minister for Civil Defense: "There is partial damage to a communication cable between Sweden and Estonia." "Investigation ongoing, timing is seen in relation to events in the Gulf of Finland".

Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

8 months

There will be a Swedish press-conference later today, featuring the Ministers for Defense and Civil Protection, Navy and Coast Guard Chiefs on "a new development regarding sea floor critical infrastructure concerning Sweden". Quote translation is mine.

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

Dawn of a new era: Looks like today's mission for the RC-135W "Jake11" includes flying in Finnish airspace along the Finnish - Russian border.

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

1/2 Thanks to @bellingcat , we have high res imagery of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile facilities at Pankovo, Novaya Zemlya, on September 20th. This is my preliminary analysis of the launch pad area where there are clear signs of activity.

Bellingcat

@bellingcat

9 months

A few weeks ago we asked YOU where to point a powerful imaging satellite. From the many submissions we picked 5 areas which were underreported and had a high chance of satellite imagery providing further insight. See the results here:

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

First sizable UAV raid on Moscow. I do believe this was a Ukrainian operation and don't think anyone should be surprised that they are retaliating this way. Look at what Budanov said yesterday. Damage may be limited, but the atmosphere of war has reached Moscow.

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

This news is now confirmed. Looks like there might be some issues beneath the official storyline on the Pacific Fleet snap exercise, when the long time Fleet Commander gets removed while the exercise is still ongoing.

Capt(N)

@Capt_Navy

1 year

🇷🇺 #Russian #Navy Breaking news ⚠️ Unofficial source: According to the results of an unscheduled inspection of the Pacific Fleet, Fleet Commander Admiral Sergey Avakyants, who held this position since October 2010, was retired.

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@The_Lookout_N

1 year

Norway to buy 54 Leopard 2A7s, with an option for further 18. The Government is also working on other measures to strengthen the ground forces, incl long range precision fires.

Norge styrker Forsvaret gjennom kjøp av nye stridsvogner

Regjeringen har besluttet å anskaffe 54 stridsvogner av typen Leopard 2 fra tyske Krauss-Maffei Wegmann. Det er lagt inn en mulighet for kjøp av ytterligere 18 vogner. De første nye stridsvognene...

www.regjeringen.no

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

11 months

This is how you scuttle this ship.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

7 months

1/7 My capacity is reduced at the moment but some brief thoughts on Zaluzhny's interview and essay: Firstly, this should sober up the debate on the Ukrainian offensive. It did fail in reaching it's original objectives and Zaluzhny voices caution on an attritional approach too.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

7 months

🧵This week The Economist spoke to Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, on the state of the war. It’s a fascinating & important interview. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.”

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@The_Lookout_N

4 months

This very much looks like a Ropucha going down by the stern.

OSINTtechnical

@Osinttechnical

4 months

The Ukrainian GUR just posted footage of multiple Ukrainian USVs hitting the Russian Ropucha-class landing ship Caesar Kunikov this morning, sinking it.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

New large NOTAM, "tempo danger area" has been issued for parts of the Kara Sea, active between the 17th and 22nd. I do not know what kind of activity this could be for, and haven't found a corresponding NAVWARN yet. Also no NOTAM over land at the Pemboy test range.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

10 months

Couldn't help thinking of Red Storm Rising seeing burning Backfires.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Sentinel-2 imagery at approx 0830z this morning confirms 2 x Russian pontoon-bridges over the Siversky Donets river SW of Izium. Western Bridge in pos:49.14871, 37.23472 Eastern Bridge in pos:49.15289, 37.25006

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

6 months

Norway donates more NASAMS related equipment to Ukraine. First part of this package, details not specified, comes from Armed Forces stocks and will be dispatched quickly. The second part consists of ordering 8 launchers and 4 fire control centers from the industry.

Forsvarsdepartement

@Forsvarsdep

6 months

Noreg donerer meir luftvern til Ukraina. Noko blir sendt frå eige lagar for å sørgja for rask levering til Ukraina, samtidig som det blir bestilt meir frå industrien for levering seinare. Les meir her:

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Ukrainian forces confirmed east of the Oskil River near Kupyansk.

Def Mon

@DefMon3

2 years

All these three are from roughly the same place. This last one helped with geolocation of the first one. 49.707412753, 37.646996336

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@The_Lookout_N

2 months

4/ "We are with you, not only as long as it takes, but in order to make the outcome what you want, namely to win and to expell the Russian aggressor from your lands" My comment: Such statements needs to be followed up by (new) actions rather quickly.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

The State Duma has approved " The law on special powers of the government to ensure military operations" today. This law allows Russia to begin what can be seen as a partial economic mobilization.

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

Putting tires on strategic bombers actually changes their SAR signature, in this instance in the X-band (9GHz range) I believe.

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

8 months

1/5 Thoughts around Balticconnector and the cable: Once again we are in a situation with a lot of uncertainty, many questions and few hard facts beyond the actual damage and Finnish statements that it was caused by "external actions" and "intentional".

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Thord Are Iversen

@The_Lookout_N

6 months

The F-16s Norway will donate to Ukraine, numbers not made public yet, are now undergoing pre-delivery testing and readying.

Norges F-16 til Ukraina antas flyveklare til våren

Norges F-16 donasjoner blir nå klargjort og testet. Flyene vil trolig være operative fra tidligst våren eller sommeren 2024.

www.forsvaretsforum.no

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@The_Lookout_N

1 month

1/ There has been new advances around Ocheretyne and renewed Russian pushes towards Chasiv Yar are expected. These advances are symptoms of something so I agree with those saying that we are in a critical phase of the war. While there are unknowns, I don't see any easy fixes.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

Eastbound train in Rechitsa - Belarus. Suspect this is part of the redeployment of Eastern MD units from Belarus to the Belgorod region, for commitment between Kharkiv - Izium - Sievierodonetsk.

Belarusian Hajun project

@Hajun_BY

2 years

17:30 A train with military vehicles was moving through Rechitsa towards Gomel. The vehicles include Ural trucks of various modifications, KamAZ trucks, fuel trucks. There also were 2 passenger cars and 8 freight cars.

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@The_Lookout_N

17 days

2/2 Then there's the issue of convincing the West, most importantly the White House, to lift the restrictions on hitting Russia proper. There's a boatload of targets to go after with UAVs inside Russia, only a handful one should avoid and this was one of the latter.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 months

I can see where the administration's concerns are coming from but I think they are wrong and this position makes the US look bad too, considering the current state of the war. If you want a change in targets, as an example, give Ukraine proper tools to go after air bases.

Natasha Bertrand

@NatashaBertrand

2 months

Asked why the Biden admin is discouraging Ukraine from striking Russian energy infrastructure, Secretary Austin acknowledges that admin has concerns about how it will affect global energy markets. "Certainly, those attacks could have a knock on effect, in terms of the global

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

1/2 The withdrawal from Snake Island is a Russian defeat, and it has come at a cost for the Black Sea Fleet. However, this doesn't have a significant impact on Russias ability to continue the blockade of Ukrainian ports, despite the MoDs claims.

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@The_Lookout_N

6 months

This is not to undercut the Ukrainian successes against the Black Sea Fleet but I think it's worth repeating: The Rostov-na-Donu, Minsk, Askold and now the Novocherkassk became victims of land based airpower, known to be deadly to ships for 80+ years.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

If we do indeed see a new Russian buildup in Belarus, we'll have to wait and see how many trains arrive and where they unload, to be able to determine both the purpose and scale of any such moves.

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@The_Lookout_N

9 months

This is part of normal daily life in Sevastopol. Assistance from harbor tugs is standard practice for coming or departing and when shifting piers. Does not indicate anything at all regarding possible damage or technical status.

NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦

@NOELreports

9 months

The frigate Admiral Makarov was towed to the harbor of Sevastopol. Radio Liberty discovered the Russian frigate Admiral Makarov in a satellite image taken on the morning of September 15.

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@The_Lookout_N

2 years

The first three wounded Ukrainian soldiers, that will be treated at Norwegian hospitals, landed in Norway today. The first civilian Ukrainian patients arrived here in March.

De første sårede soldater fra Ukraina har ankommet

De første sårede soldatene fra Ukraina som skal få behandling på norske sykehus, har ankommet landet.

www.regjeringen.no

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