The answer, of course, is to publish all worthy arguments fearlessly. That’s the job. That an increasing number of people don’t understand this is depressing.
The negotiations have always been deadlocked on Sinwar demanding an end to the war (allowing him to declare victory) and Israel refusing for that very reason. It's why I've never held out much hope for a meaningful deal. And why I'm betting Rafah will happen.
BREAKING: Netanyahu told Blinken during their meeting today he won't accept a deal that will include ending the war. He said if Hamas doesn't drop this demand there will be no deal and Israel will invade Rafah, per Israeli and U.S. officials
This is precisely why I am not a Zionist: the Holocaust teaches us that ethnostates, by definition, inherently delineate outsiders who must be excluded, or even exterminated. The goal of an ethnostate inherently contains the seeds of genocide.
The point of protests is not to “be heard”. It is to provoke violence and galvanize opinion. It is inherently polarizing, and its logic is the heightening of contradictions.
American credibility is not based on “the world” thinking America is “one of the good guys”. This is pure self-regard. Most of the world doesn’t moralize about international affairs, and recognizes that the system’s inherent anarchy is brutal.
It’s worth recalling that the United States lost every single one of its “hearts-and-minds” wars, at great cost: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It’s an alluring strategy with a pretty crap track record.
Don’t go here. It used to be great, not anymore. It’s for rich Hollywood celebrities who want insta selfies. All the shops look exactly the same, it’s entirely catered to tourists. It’s a caricature. Zero authenticity. If you want to find authentic places to visit, DM me.
Worth noting that the hubris is tied to our techno-optimism, which in turn is fueled by us facing inferior opponents for decades. The war in Ukraine is a real war, the first real war we've seen in a long while — a war that is a test of endurance and sacrifice, not gadgetry.
We shouldn't be so hubristic to think that our ways and stuff are always the best. We should be humble and take nothing for granted.
"Ukrainian crews working on US-supplied Abrams tanks have told CNN of a series of the weaknesses and flaws with the armored vehicles, calling
@shadihamid
Also: Hanania’s idea that we used to win wars because we were more brutal is ahistoric, and only betrays his weird arousal by violence. We lost Vietnam. We killed plenty of people. We lost Iraq. We killed plenty of people. We lost Afghanistan. We killed plenty of people.
If you liked your student protests up until now, wait until Israel goes into Rafah this week and the Biden administration does nothing but wring its hands.
Navalny's politics weren't complicated. He knew what mobilized people: not universal values, but outrage against widespread theft by a clique of thugs. He informed, but also mocked. He brought down the powerful to a place where the common man can easily spit on them.
Ah yes, the formidable deterrent effect of International Law. That solves it.
Taiwan considers joining international criminal court to deter potential China invasion - The Guardian
Your periodic reminder that Biden’s biggest blunder was reassuring European allies upon his election, encouraging complacency that is still not fully extirpated.
This is a good thread that mostly reflects what I think happened. Three points strike me as particularly important here:
1) The idea that Israel's behavior can entirely or even mostly be explained by Netanyahu's desire to cling to power is wishful thinking on the part of people
@shashj
The West said it was up to Ukrainians to define victory. And Zelensky naturally talked about freeing all occupied territories.
I'm not saying there's some nefarious plot here. It all makes sense. But we journalists also shouldn't pretend like the talking points haven't shifted.
this was an american war crime on retreating forces and civilians called “highway of death” where a6 intruder jets bombed the front of the vehicle column to cause a pile up, boxing in thousands of cars they kept bombing for 10 hrs straight, you polish-govt-funded fascist freak
@born_sage
@DamonLinker
@drayckes
I’m exactly where Damon is at. You can try to unspool this mess to find who’s fully to blame, but at this point, we’re all circling the drain together. And the biggest damage is to the legitimacy of the whole system, which is — in my opinion — an even bigger problem than Trump.
@whsieh
Possibility: they’ve already written them off — have done the calculus that both Hizballah and Iran would suffer catastrophic losses in a wider war, regret green-lighting October 7, and have chosen to fight another day. Nasrallah’s speech may have even demoralized and hurt Hamas.
At some point, America will snap out of its senescent slumber. And it will be really ugly for everyone that took too many lessons to heart from the desperately status quo Biden Administration.
The reality of international relations is that states will constantly try to push their advantage until it is demonstrated fully to them that they can go no further. Intellectualized peace-loving rationalism by the hegemon leads to tragic miscalculations.
New for RUSI today
We must invest urgently in ammunition production capacity to make Ukraine's war effort sustainable, we may have only a few years to get Europe's own defences in order against Russia, and why the US may not be coming to save us next time:
Eric Schmidt: Well, one of the things that . . . it’s always useful to remind the techno-optimists in my world, is that there are evil people.
Evil should be the starting point for *anyone* thinking about *anything*.
Heroic, brave, charismatic, funny — acid to the gray Soviet-era thieves that dominate Russia today. They had to get rid of him. It's a sad day today, when they finally did.
@born_sage
@DamonLinker
@drayckes
I hope it goes without saying that I believe Trump is a huge problem, and his re-election has literally kept me up at night pondering the unponderable. But Damon is getting at something bigger, and even worse. Trump is a poison and an accelerant of a more profound cancer.
Russia is testing a new angle of its hybrid aggression - provocations against the definition and demarcation of NATO borders.
Yesterday news spread on 🇷🇺 alleged (?) intentions to unilaterally redraw sea borders with 🇱🇹 and 🇫🇮, today 🇷🇺 removed 🇪🇪 buoys on the Narva lake, an
The President of Croatia, Zoran Milanovic, an irascible left-populist, has announced new parliamentary elections in April, and has put himself forward as a candidate. This is illegal under the constitution.
If he wins, expect Croatia to drift out of the European mainstream.
Sweet! The United States will help run one group of Palestinians, funded by the Saudis, to hunt down another group of Palestinians, funded by Iran, in what is likely to be a prolonged low-grade civil war.
NEW: The Biden administration is considering appointing a U.S. official to serve as the top civilian adviser to a mostly Palestinian force when the Israel-Hamas conflict ends, four U.S. officials said
@tretyamirovaya
@SlawomirDebski
Europe still has NATO. And nuclear deterrence works. At the end of the day, Ukraine can be sacrificed. It’s not ideal, but Europe would adapt. That limit disparity has been the key to the dirty game since day one. The values talk is a smokescreen.
@ABarbashin
@SlawomirDebski
Asia is the future. Europe is increasingly an afterthought. And this is a trend much deeper than Trumpism. Europeans should wake up.
@HafedAlGhwell
@shadihamid
@WCrowdsLive
I’ve been arguing for as long I’ve been able to argue that countries are not NGOs, and foreign policy is always a bitter set of compromises. Don’t be distracted by rhetoric.
This confuses me because the goal at the start of this year was also “improving its position in an eventual negotiation.” The suggestion that only “total victory” was in mind is simply wrong.
The funny thing about fights over newspaper op-eds is that they imagine the power of newspapers to shape their readers’ opinions is vast. It assumes readers are fools and are incapable of reading critically and making up their own minds.
Backwards way of thinking about it. Better question: what does it say about the perceived legitimacy of our institutions that one party is set to nominate someone accused of undermining them.
We can debate whether Trump is disqualified from office under the 14th Amendment. But it is bananas that one party seems set to nominate someone about whom it is a genuine question whether his past conduct amounts to "insurrection or rebellion" against the United States.
@phl43
I agree about the double standard. But unfortunately, it goes the other way: the "crimes against humanity" high dudgeon against the Russians is misplaced. We decided we back Ukraine's right to exist, and everything flows from that decision. International law is rhetoric.
In some ways, we are growing more aligned — they are obviously "constructs of power".
But abandon the notion that they can be deconstructed and reformed. That's obviously nonsense.
This war is making me question some core assumptions, about what the "international community" or "Western civilization" actually mean, or if they're better understood as constructs of power. The fact I'd even say something like this suggests my critical theory grad school days
The negotiations have always been deadlocked on Sinwar demanding an end to the war (allowing him to declare victory) and Israel refusing for that very reason. It's why I've never held out much hope for a meaningful deal. And why I'm betting Rafah will happen.
There’s a belief among Europeans that all that’s missing to pass Ukraine aid is vigor in selling the idea to the American people. I’m not sure that’s true. It may be more true that the defining fact of America today is partisanship. And Ukraine has become a partisan football.
🚨The White House informed Israeli War cabinet member Minister Benny Gantz and Defense Minister Yoav Galant in advance about President Biden's speech and gave them general details about its contents, a U.S. official told me 🚨The U.S. official said that the White House was
I have no idea what effect this conviction will have. I'm exhausted by thinking about it at all. That said, the raw tawdriness of the whole case is somehow very appropriate here.
Re-reading some Dostoevsky.
——
“By the way, a Bulgarian I met recently in Moscow,” Ivan Fyodorovich went on, as if he were not listening to his brother, “told me how the Turks and Circassians there, in Bulgaria, have been committing atrocities everywhere, fearing a general
Light evening reading: on science fiction and consciousness. Daniel Dennett, the Three Body Problem, Philip K. Dick, schizophrenia, dementia — this one's got it all.
This is not true, but it does hint at a deep truth.
Yes, the American Jewish lesson from the Holocaust is to double down on tolerance and liberalism for all, because American Jews believe they were saved from the 20th century by these features of America.
But Israeli Jews
@whsieh
Iran calls the shots and sees Hezballah as its best non-nuclear deterrent against Israeli adventurism. Hamas was a good supplement to that, but they seem to have miscalculated in its use. So maybe calculus is to lick wounds and take the L.
I mean, it’s just global interconnectedness. Climate change activists learn lessons from each other, too. Same thing. And no putting the genie back in the bottle.
I am generally averse to conspiracy theories, but in this case there are ample receipts showing that illiberals worldwide are learning from and collaborating with one another.
I’m retweeting this for general amusement/interest. But also to marvel at the idea that people clearly like engaging on neighborhood Facebook groups. This is some kind of modern Tocquevillianism. It’s a facet of America that is most foreign to me.
A Palestinian restaurant, by all accounts excellent, just opened in my neighborhood. The menu includes “from the river to the sea” with a note that the phrase is not a call for violence, but for freedom. The neighborhood FB group is already in complete chaos over this.
Some read this as some kind of indictment of America. I merely look at this and say "Good!" This is Europe's war to win — or lose. Ukraine is Europe's moment to, for the first time, proudly stand on its own two feet.
Lots of profound advice coming from generals about brilliant US counterinsurgency campaigns. Lest we forget, the United States was embarrassed in Afghanistan, and was pushed out of Iraq. Put them both in the L column.
So much US writing about US aid to Ukraine not coming through is self-centered — what will the Europeans think of us?
FWIW, my sincere hope is that Ukraine aid somehow comes through, but Europeans are nevertheless permanently disabused of the idea that the US is there with them.
I suppose that's true as far as it goes. But it doesn't go very far. International law doesn't exist outside the means to enforce it. And the "international community" is a mirage for similar reasons: it cannot actually do anything.
Top Biden officials are compelled -- by self-interest -- to defend Israel's war in Gaza because they're the ones financing it, providing the weapons for it, diplomatically shielding it, and vowing that support is unconditional.
If Israel's war is criminal, then they're liable:
@ZaidJilani
Honestly? I couldn't make it far enough in that piece to get to the part you're put off by. If Twitter was destroying brains and making writers incapable of longer thoughts, I feel like Substack is feeding self-indulgence. I don't have time or patience for pieces like these.
@aaririon
@BrunoTertrais
Because it is a well-known American film trope that all foreigners speak in a British accent. That's how we know they're foreigners.
Also worth thinking about how we got to this fetishization of "smart" weapons. I think part of it had to do with meeting the needs of "sanitizing" war — an imperative after Vietnam. Story of this is told well by
@samuelmoyn
in Humane. 2/2
Such a dark, funny and heartbreaking family history set amidst the collapse of the Habsburg Empire. A little embarrassing to reveal that my favourite read of 2023 is a book published in 1932. But not too late for others to learn from my mistake…
@phl43
Where am I off, here? What is international law but a feeble effort to civilize anarchy through the force of ideas? It can only meaningfully hold under global hegemony. It's why it got more currency after 1989. But it's a chimera.
Worse than that, it has *always* sounded like a load of self-satisfied rhetoric to non-Western democratic, semi-democratic, and undemocratic allies across the world. It’s pure vanity and self-regard, and leads to incoherent policy and decisionmaking.
Here’s
@RachelRizzo
’s terrific essay that prompted the conversation. I really can’t recommend it enough. Just beautifully written, and incredibly thought-provoking. I really hope she keeps stretching outside of her regular comfort zone.