John Luttig @absoluttig Twitter profile

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

the internet tailwinds that propelled meteoric growth in Silicon Valley are stalling. what next? zero-sum games between web startups, the operationalization of SV, new financial infra, VCs investing in visions over numbers, and R&D beyond the internet.

When Tailwinds Vanish

The Internet in the 2020s

blog.johnluttig.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

2 years

Microsoft is not a Silicon Valley darling, so it is often overlooked. But the behemoth in Redmond teaches us valuable lessons in startup strategy, cloud infrastructure, and the future of software. I wrote about my learnings here:

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

2 years

the Apple II was built with just 25 employees. since then, we’ve slid into tech incrementalism. today, most software companies are fundamentally unambitious, but Rippling is hiding in plain sight. I wrote about how @parkerconrad is bringing ambition back:

Rippling and the return of ambition

Most software companies today are fundamentally unambitious, but Rippling is hiding in plain sight.

blog.johnluttig.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

3 years

finance is no longer purely institutional; it has seeped into our culture. a combination of low interest rates, a historic tech bull run, and the resulting fomo has tethered us to our monitors to watch candlestick charts. i wrote about how we got here:

Finance as culture

financialization is no longer purely institutional. it has seeped into our culture.

blog.johnluttig.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

1 year

it sure feels like we’ve reached peak AI. VC thought pieces and tweetstorms have hit all-time highs. crypto tourists have flocked to greener pastures. MBAs may soon outnumber nerds. is AI the new crypto?

Is AI the new crypto?

The nuclear winter techpocalypse arrived, sparing only artificial intelligence. Peak AI indicators are everywhere. Can it maintain the faith that crypto lost?

blog.johnluttig.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

3 years

index funds have come to dominate public markets. but the shift towards diversification is widespread across tech and culture too – what I call the index mindset. people are indexing their careers, money, and even relationships. I wrote about how to adapt:

The index mindset

Index funds have come to dominate public markets. But the shift towards indexing is spreading across tech and culture too – I call it the index mindset.

blog.johnluttig.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

29 days

a16z simultaneously argues 1) the US must prevent China from dominating AI, and 2) open source models should proliferate freely across borders (to China) what does this mean? who knows. i'm just glad at Founders Fund we don't have to promote every current thing at once

martin_casado

@martin_casado

29 days

If you're building open source AI, come to a16z instead of FF. We think OS AI is a great investment space, and an increasingly important option for developers and consumers. It's also critical for national security. We'd love to talk.

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

2 years

the pandemic brought unprecedented volatility to the tech industry: exponential demand, 100x ARR valuations, easy money, meme investing. but with two years of hindsight, what has changed? I wrote about tech’s reversion to the mean here:

Reversion to the mean: the real long COVID

The pandemic may be over, but so is tech exuberance.

blog.johnluttig.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

29 days

despite recent progress and endless cheerleading, open-source AI is a worsening investment for model builders, an inferior option for developers and consumers, and a national security risk. I wrote about the closed-source future of foundation models here

The future of foundation models is closed-source

if the centralizing forces of data and compute hold, open and closed-source AI cannot both dominate long-term

blog.johnluttig.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

3 months

Devin is the first agentic product I’ve seen that successfully tackles multi-hundred step tasks by balancing long-term planning, skills, and memory. one of the few AI startups worth paying close attention to. congrats to @ScottWu46 and team, and grateful to have FF involved

Cognition

@cognition_labs

3 months

Today we're excited to introduce Devin, the first AI software engineer. Devin is the new state-of-the-art on the SWE-Bench coding benchmark, has successfully passed practical engineering interviews from leading AI companies, and has even completed real jobs on Upwork. Devin is…

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

3 years

i’ve regularly fallen into the trap of following timeful advice: seemingly timeless, but actually anachronistic. i wrote about how to tell them apart:

how timeless is timeless advice?

some advice is timeful: relevant for a specific era, but anachronistic thereafter

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

2 months

Trae will never take credit for himself, but Newcomer’s profile on @traestephens is the first I’ve seen that properly acknowledges his role in founding the modern defense tech wave

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

29 days

turns out mark zuckerberg is not running a charity

Jimmy Apples 🍎/acc

@apples_jimmy

29 days

Meta plans to not open the weights for its 400B model. The hope is that we would quietly not notice / let it slide. Don’t let it slide.

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

7 months

Nvidia Envy: understanding the GPU gold rush In 2023, thousands of companies and countries begged Nvidia to purchase more GPUs. Can the exponential demand endure? With internet, SaaS, and mobile tailwinds in the rear-view mirror, the tech industry has become cash-rich but…

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

1 year

AI hyperbole in the tech industry is off the charts: foundation model FUD, incumbent invincibility, doomer declarations. most people have a story to sell you – or themselves – whether they admit it or not. I wrote about these hallucinations on a blogging site (link in bio):

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

lots of noise on SPACs this week. hot takes range from SPACs "disrupting IPOs" to being "a lousy deal". hyperbole aside, choosing the wrong path can cost your company millions. my thoughts on everything founders and investors need to know about SPACs:

SPAC Attack: everything a founder or investor should know

Choosing the wrong path can cost your company millions in cash and equity.

blog.johnluttig.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

1 year

hyperbolic narratives distort the AI discourse. it's hard to find signal in the noise. the real AI hallucinations are human: most people have a story of hope, cope, or mope to sell you – or themselves. I wrote about it in my first @PirateWires piece

Hallucinations in AI

everything you think you know about AI has been told to you by someone with an

www.piratewires.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

3 years

@zebulgar @jack the world if Delian got banned from twitter for 12 years instead of 12 hours

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

this will be the greatest founder comeback story of our generation. @parkerconrad ’s relentless product focus is creating a completely new software category where @rippling becomes the system of record for all employee data. congrats to parker and team!

Rippling’s Funding Round Gives Founder Second Unicorn Chance

Rippling, a software company started by former Zenefits co-founder Parker Conrad, has raised fresh capital valuing it at $1.35 billion.

www.bloomberg.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

LPs and founders prefer working with established or famous VCs, and consistently underestimate the value of working with rising stars like Harry. @HarryStebbings will win for his LPs and founders because he works harder than anyone else.

Harry Stebbings

@HarryStebbings

4 years

I got a little bit carried away with the angel investing over the last few years. So it’s time to announce @20vcFund backed by 83 friends from around the world. 🏦 $8.3M 📈 Pre-seed to Series C 💵 $250K investments. To some exciting times ahead.

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

5 years

. @alexandr_wang has done an exceptional job in getting the best engineering talent in Silicon Valley to work on @scale_AI . this is one of the most charismatic company + founder combos that I’ve seen. excited for @foundersfund to lead this round!

Scale AI

@scale_AI

5 years

We’re proud of what we’ve built over the last three years. Today we’re pleased to announce our $100M Series C fundraise led by @FoundersFund , with participation from @Accel , @IndexVentures , @sparkcapital , @ThriveCapital , @kevin , @mikeyk and @adamdangelo .

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

7 months

In 2023, Nvidia became the AI kingmaker. Thousands of companies and countries begged to purchase their GPUs. Will the insatiable demand persist? I wrote a piece exploring the Nvidia run-up, the resulting shortage, and the future of GPU demand

Nvidia Envy: understanding the GPU gold rush

In 2023, thousands of companies and countries begged Nvidia to purchase more GPUs. Can the exponential demand endure?

blog.johnluttig.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

thanks for the shout-out @matt_levine ! “Yet” is the critical word in your headline – excited to watch lower-fee SPACs emerge over the next few years

SPACs Aren’t Cheaper Than IPOs Yet

Also vaccines, Eileen Murray and Elon Musk.

www.bloomberg.com

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

unlike most hype-driven companies, @NewfrontHQ has been quietly building for 3 years, and is now the best commercial insurance brokerage in the country. congrats to spike, @gwintrob , and team!

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

7 months

The supply side: Nvidia’s monopoly on GPUs Nvidia is tripling its output of H100s to ship 2m+ units in 2024, bottlenecked primarily by TSMC. You can read a detailed analysis of the upstream component supply chain bottlenecks from Dylan Patel’s SemiAnalysis. Nvidia has monopoly…

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

5 years

i've known @zoink for two years and have been blown away by his intuition and execution abilities on product (and board games). i think @figmadesign will become a magnet for the best product and design talent of our generation. very excited for @foundersfund to get involved!

Dylan Field

@zoink

5 years

My thoughts on Figma’s Series C round and what it means for the @figmadesign community:

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

5 years

as soon as i met "the twins" freshman year of college, i knew @kerryxwang and @AnnaXWang were going places. i'm excited to get @foundersfund involved in Searchlight's seed round, and look forward to seeing what they build!

Kerry Wang

@kerryxwang

5 years

Proud to announce Searchlight's $2.5M seed round led by @Accel with participation from @foundersfund , Soma Capital, and @ycombinator ! The better way to evaluate talent is through their reference data.

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

2 years

bijan and the @MosaicTechInfo team are a great example of why founder-market fit matters: they’ve quickly built a best-in-class product, having solved strategic finance at Palantir. excited to get @foundersfund involved!

mosaic.tech

@MosaicTechInfo

2 years

We’re thrilled to announce our Series B, led by @foundersfund , bringing our total funding to $46 million in just over 12 months to fuel a new era of strategic finance. Thank you to our investors, customers, and team for making this all possible.

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

7 months

The GPU demand curve: growth or glut? In the summer of 2023, it became clear that there was a run on Nvidia GPUs. As of summer 2023, H100s were sold out until Q1 2024. There is an unstoppable force of GPU efficiency gains and supply chain unlocks against an immovable wall of…

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

3 years

great piece on combating CAC inflation from @bcamhi

Brandon Camhi

@bcamhi

3 years

Will 2022 be marketing’s 2008? Rampant CAC inflation is starting to put companies underwater on core channels — creating a major GTM crisis for b2b startups. I wrote about the problem, and how founders should respond:

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

bureaucracy and red tape are paralyzing taxes on society, but @DoNotPayLaw empowers us to navigate the labyrinth. @jbrowder1 has found the rare intersection of helping consumers and building a great business.

Joshua Browder

@jbrowder1

4 years

Exciting news! We are thrilled to announce $12 million in Series A funding for @DoNotPayLaw from Coatue, @a16z , @foundersfund and @felicis . We plan to double down on helping people fight corporations and beat bureaucracy in these crazy times!

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

3 years

congrats to @NewfrontHQ , Spike, and @gwintrob on the $1.35b merger with ABD to superpower more brokers and clients with technology. they've spent four years assembling a world-class team to build for the massive, archaic insurance industry. excited to see what they build next!

Bloomberg Markets

@markets

3 years

Newfront Insurance and ABD Insurance and Financial Services agreed to a merger that will value the combined company at $1.35 billion

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

7 months

The Nvidia empire Many big tech players have plans to wean themselves off of Nvidia, but If you want to compete at the frontier of large-scale foundation models today, Nvidia is the only practical choice. My friend Ben Gilbert did a great series on Nvidia’s corporate history…

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

@balajis 1) agreed COVID accelerated internet usage, but this brings us even closer to maturation 2) which of these companies are purely bits-driven? of those that aren’t, which will require heavy SG&A investments? 3) ARR financing can be factoring (risk-free for companies), not debt

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

5 years

win-win

Melisa Tokmak

@melisatokmak

5 years

What’s next? ➡️ I’m so proud to have joined @alexandr_wang at @scale_AI to accelerate the development of AI applications. Alex and the team have achieved the impossible in just three years but this is just the beginning.

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

@densityio delivers the economic benefits of computer vision without the privacy costs. many non-obvious downstream benefits of people count data that @andrewfarah and team are using to reshape our cities

Andrew Farah

@andrewfarah

4 years

Excited to announce our new round led by @kleinerperkins And that the inimitable @ilyaf is joining our board -

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

@arampell I cede that you cannot move a large block 1 day post-IPO at public market PPS, though impossible to play out the counterfactual to know how much lower the price would be assuming no lockup. would be interesting to see the Ritter analysis but with 12mo post-IPO PPS + float volume

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

6 years

is this thing on?

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

@micsolana @kevinakwok

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John Luttig

@absoluttig

4 years

@arampell SPACs have traditionally optimized fees, in the same way VCs took 3x liq pref. over time, many fee-compressing factors: warrants come down, PIPE:SPAC ratio increases, and founder-friendly sponsors that don't optimize fees. watch fee structure of the next generation of tech SPACs

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