martin_casado @martin_casado Twitter profile

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martin_casado

11 months

1/ We’ve submitted a letter to President Biden regarding the AI Executive Order and its potential for restricting open source AI. We believe strongly that open source is the only way to keep software safe and free from monopoly. Please help amplify.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

Holy shit. Just got off the phone with my dad. He had just spoken to "me" and was convinced I was in jail after a car accident and needed $10k bail. He was headed to the bank but decided to call me just in case (lucky I picked up, I'm in Japan). Fuck me.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

3 years

"We only hire from top schools" is lazy practice that results in less-than-top teams. This thread is a rough attempt to explain why 🧵👇

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 years

CTO as a title is near useless. It can mean ... - engineering leader - chief scientist - tech talent sent to pasture - super SE - academic - somone too disruptive for product - talking head - architect - .... The only commonolity is general lack of accountability ... 🙃

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

11 months

Yup.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 years

0/ There is a dazzling amount of inconsistency in what GTM metrics are presented at board meetings of early stage b2b companies. Here is my hit list of the most important, and why:

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 years

Running ultramarathons for over a decade has taught me a lot about life and entrepreneurship ... ... namely that a lot of people do unnecessary shit for far to long, and then make up stories for why it's useful ... 🙄

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

8 years

Learned as an engineer : bad ideas generally stay bad Learning as an investor : powerful, disruptive ideas often were once bad ideas

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

20 days

OK, here is my best guess on the state of LLMs: - The scale increase between gpt-3 and gpt-4 was 100x - Doing that for the next model is going to be very hard - We're nearly out of general language tokens. So let's say we can 2x that. And perhaps get more proprietary tokens and

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

7 months

India is home to much of the best talent the human race has to offer. It's contributions to CS rival that of any other country. And its future potential is better than most. It'd be a crime if it regulated itself out of this leadership. India would loose. We'd all loose.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

7 months

Good fucking lord. What a travesty. Requiring government approval to deploy a model. This is the inevitable outcome of rhetoric like Vinod’s. It’s anti innovation. It’s anti public. And we all loose. Keep AI open!!!!

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

1/ My experience is that most pitches go sideways because the investor is lead to believe there is more maturity in a company than their is. And then they leave unsatisfied because there wasn't sufficient focus on the important metrics for the assumed stage.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 years

If the founder can’t sell it, no one can. If a senior rep under the founder can’t sell it, then a sales leader can't build a team to sell it. If a sales team within the company can’t sell it, then no third party sales team can sell it. So build out sales in that order.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

Why a PhD is bad for startups: -Drawn to obscure areas for novelty -Prefer theoretical elegance to practical complexity -Obsess about few problems for long periods -Peer relationships lack trust, require proof Why a PhD is good: -You're use to being poor and treated like shit

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 years

0/ Is there an Enterprise Margin Crisis? It's not uncommon to see software startups with surprisingly low margins (30-40%). We believe there is a broader trend going on here, which I explore in this thread.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 months

At this point I feel like we understand pretty well what's going on with LLMs: - Outputs are roughly equivalent to kernel smoothing over positional embeddings () - The learned computation model is *probably* bounded by RASP-L () -

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

1 year

I feel like we’ve all been pulled into a fucked up alternate timeline … I can’t believe we have to fight again for open source …

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

0/ I’ve traveled a bit over the last two decades, peaking at 300k miles per year in seat (~70% time). Being estranged from your house plants is *not* a great way to live. But for those who have to, here are some tricks I’ve picked up along with those frequent flyer miles.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 years

The Bay Area gets energized by downturns. Always has. That's because the culture is rooted in innovation. And there is no better time to build. East coast finance on the other hand has a hard time seeing past the markets. Right now is a great time to be in tech!

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

3 years

[NewPost] Sure, Cloud is great. But we show it hurts share price of public companies on the order of hundreds of billions ... and they can economically justify almost any level of work (including repatriation) in order to lower costs (w/ @sarahdingwang )

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

11 months

"Meta is owned by shareholders. OpenAI is owned by a non-profit. Which would you have more confidence in? Getting your technology from a non-profit or a for profit company that is entirely controlled by one human being" -- Brad Smith, Microsoft ... absolutely ridiculous

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 months

The irony here is that recent AI trends actually suggest that it's far easier to automate a Yuval than, say, a day laborer.

Wall Street Silver

@WallStreetSilv

4 months

WEF Advisor Yuval Noah Harari: "What to do with all these useless people?" "They are basically meaningless and worthless" "What do we do with the people?" "My best guess is a combination of drugs and computer games" 🚨🚨🚨

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 months

Good god. Make it stop. Total fucking nonsense.

Steve Jurvetson

@FutureJurvetson

5 months

The new CEO of Microsoft AI, @MustafaSuleyman , with a $100B budget at TED: "AI is a new digital species." "To avoid existential risk, we should avoid: 1) Autonomy 2) Recursive self-improvement 3) Self-replication We have a good 5 to 10 years before we'll have to confront this."

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 years

0/ A very interesting trend to watch is the disappearance of pre-sales, and what it means to GTM tooling. (a thread)

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

Having been involved in hundreds of talent searches over the years, involving many, many references calls, I really feel like the most undervalued bit of career advice is .... "don't be an asshole"

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

Will. Never. Sign. Preemptively regulating innovations in computer science in ways that can hurt open source, innovation, and competition is wrong.

Hemant Taneja

@htaneja

10 months

Today, 35+ VC firms, with another 15+ companies, representing hundreds of billions in capital have signed the voluntary Responsible AI commitments from @ResponsibleLabs (RIL), the non-profit I co-founded. As Chairman of RIL, I’m proud to unveil this today with tech leaders and

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

3 months

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

Europe is a funny place. It worked very hard to lay the foundation modern science and engineering over the last 300 years. And now when given a real chance to be a leader again, is working just has hard to slip into irrelevancy.

Thierry Breton

@ThierryBreton

10 months

Deal! #AIAct

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

Put up another LTE base station in rural US (5 sites total) - A 10W node w/ 10K range costs about $8k - We run a distributed LTE core on the nodes - Management stack runs in AWS If telcos would stop being assholes about spectrum, we could connect tens of millions more ...

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

0/ Traditional enterprise GTM strategies are being eaten from the bottom by bottoms up adoption (SaaS, open source, dev tooling) and from the top by services.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 years

A good step to vet a VC is to have them pitch you your company in long form. Not send you a deck built by Bain. Actually pitch you. It’s a glimpse on how they think, and can highlight understanding of the market, your solution, macros trends, strategic advantages etc.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 years

"Having seen over 180 acquisitions at Cisco, the key criteria for successful integration is making sure the founders stay" -- John Chambers.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 years

This is the AWS console with 510 products. There is a big, independent company to be built for each item in this list.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

0/ Mastering bottoms up adoption *and* enterprise sales is really hard. Yet many of the fastest growing enterprise companies do. This thread explores some of the considerations and why juggling both motions is a lot more complicated than most assume.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

1 year

I'm sorry but ... AI applications are getting written in JS/TS not Python ... ... don't shoot the messenger ...

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

0/ In my experience “Crossing the Chasm” almost never plays out as written. Rather, it seems as if most b2b startups remain in the chasm through liquidity, or hop from one to the next struggling with multiple shifting markets.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

9 months

If you want an excuse not to join a startup, you'll always have one. Early companies really require you to be comfortable that one of these (sometimes both) will always be true.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

God level deal making.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 years

We studied a number of ML/AI companies. Tl;dr while it’s early days they tend to have different margin, scaling and defensibility properties from traditional software. We draw from this to offer some thoughts on how to think about operating them.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

OS AI has never been more important. Ever.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

1 year

Want to build a gen AI app? Here is a Javascript repo to get you started that we use in the @a16z infra team. It is a simple generative image and text app. Built using: @replicatehq @nextjs @OpenAI @ClerkDev @pinecone @supabase and @flydotio

GitHub - a16z-infra/ai-getting-started: A Javascript AI getting started stack for weekend projects,...

A Javascript AI getting started stack for weekend projects, including image/text models, vector stores, auth, and deployment configs - a16z-infra/ai-getting-started

github.com

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 years

No code is not a thing.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

0/ 71% of tech workers in Silicon Valley are foreign (!!). Yet, most founders don't know how to best prepare for the visa process. And the shifts in policy under the current administration are just confusing things further. Here is a short list of things to keep in mind (thread)

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

This definition of AI in the new FTC omnibus is *horrendous*. It could apply to most software. This is why we must all get involved. It's much more than AI, they're going after all of software.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

8 months

I fucking love Silicon Valley. The number of people who have landed in the last few years and are already part of the ad hoc social, funding, technical and startup support network is why this place is a wonder of the world. If you have the time, do pay it forward.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

1 year

Ah, so this is what they want. An FDA for software. “You can’t release that unless you prove it’s safe” I’m with Carmack. This statist overreach into software needs to be stopped.

Dimitar Pachov

@dpachov

1 year

The logical approach would be to show why AI is paradigmatically the same. It's standard to prove safety rather than disprove danger. It matters what one optimizes for in topics of discussion. Safety may be a reasonable focus for some but another priority may be for others.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

1 month

tl;dr the general intelligence is the one behind the prompt.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

Wooooo!!!!!!!!!!! 👏👏👏👏👏 Common sense starting to prevail ...

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 years

Haha. Oh goodness, the irony. Having had both profs and VCs on my board ... ... the worst advice actually comes from academics ... who generally lack both understanding *and* accountability.

Arvind Narayanan

@random_walker

4 years

Venture capitalists benefit from giving toxic and dangerous advice to startups. That's because the risk to the VC is bounded — the amount invested ⁠— whereas the costs to founders and workers' health, to society, to democracy, and to the environment are unbounded.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 months

This entire AI safety thing is such a long con. It was put in motion years ago, and now it's going to directly hurt all of tech, open source, startups and academia. We need to wake the fuck up and start pushing back.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

7 months

Vinod continues to lobby against Open Source AI. Shameful. Comparing a project to create a weapon with a research effort moving the field of computer science forward broadly is totally senseless. No, AI is not more dangerous than a nuke. Yes, it should be open source.

Vinod Khosla

@vkhosla

7 months

And @pmarca would you open source the manhattan project? This one is more serious for national security. We are in a tech economic war with China and AI that is a must win. This is exactly what patriotism is about, not slogans.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 months

My sleep routine works every time: - no eating after 5 - blue filter - no screens after 9 - 8sleep - cold plunge (5min) - sauna (10min) - Brown noise - 3 shots tequila and two Ambien

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

11 months

Outrageous!! Massive misrepresentation by Brad Smith (MSFT) claiming chat-gpt is as open as LLaMa (among other non truths) It's sad to see MSFT become the enemy to open source again. They did it during the OS / browser wars. And they're doing it again.

Navigating the AI Revolution: Shaping a Decade of Promise and Peril

AI offers boundless promise, revolutionizing healthcare, tackling climate change, and addressing global hunger. Yet, its ascent brings inherent risks, epitom...

www.youtube.com

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

How VCs are like Professors - Way more power than value add - Your competition is also your consumer (i.e. other VCs / Profs) - 5-7 years to know if it will work - Being measured by marks / publications is just silly - The students / entrepreneurs do all the work

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

1 year

If a company is going to train a $5B model, wouldn't it make sense to use 5% of that to build a custom ASIC for that model? The benefits are certain to dwarf the 5% investment. At these scales, even ASIC design costs become marginal.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

When Sales Isn’t Just Selling. My thoughts on going from product to sales in early markets. Button line, unless the market pulls, it’s hard :)

When Sales Isn’t Just Selling: Advice for Founders in Early Markets | Andreessen Horowitz

Perhaps the single greatest early challenge faced by founders in early markets is going from product to sales — specifically, a repeatable sales process. Occasionally, a product draws the market with...

a16z.com

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

25 days

Step 1: Move out of California Step 2: Support legislation that'll hurt California Well played Mr. Musk. Well played.

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

25 days

This is a tough call and will make some people upset, but, all things considered, I think California should probably pass the SB 1047 AI safety bill. For over 20 years, I have been an advocate for AI regulation, just as we regulate any product/technology that is a potential risk

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 years

I think when it's all said and done, the entire software industry will consist of a spreadsheet for the business folks, SQL for the data folks, and Javascript for the app folks.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 years

The actual reason VCs past on most early deals is that we don't understand the market enough and don't have the time to do the work as the deal is going down. It really is that simple.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

A month into the AI safety discussions and one of my core take aways is that the AI safety folks seems far more interested in coming up with regulations than actually understanding the science / engineering they want to regulate.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

4/ First, seed/A/B/C is a bad approximation for the stage of a company. Rather than implicitly signal through the round, be clear up front. The stages we use internally are: Team, Product, Repeatable Sale, Unit Economics.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 months

We've raised a $1.25B infrastructure fund! We love all infra, compute, network, storage, databases, data science, gen AI, dev tools ... from silicon to UIs. Infra is the true root of value in tech. And we're deepening our commitment to it.

New Funds, New Era | Andreessen Horowitz

We have just raised $7.2B for American Dynamism ($600M), Apps ($1B), Games ($600M), Infrastructure ($1.25B), and Growth ($3.75B). This marks an important milestone for us.

a16z.com

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

9 months

Decades of research across many disciplines. Tens of billions spent. Thousands of careers ... ... one use case to unite them all

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

11 months

Nope

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 years

Anyone who thinks tech sales and marketing don’t require exceptionally skilled (and rare!) talent, don’t understand the positions. And probably don’t understand how tech companies really work.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 months

Little tech really needs to get a lot more aggressive against big tech. They're going for full control right now.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 months

If you're building open source AI, come to a16z instead of FF. We think OS AI is a great investment space, and an increasingly important option for developers and consumers. It's also critical for national security. We'd love to talk.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 years

1/ Advice on finding “the right idea” is often a variant of the tired painkillers vs. vitamins cliche -- focus on a problem you’ve experienced or others are experiencing yada yada Yet, many impactful ideas were more akin to aesthetics, how founders felt the world should be.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 months

Man, GTFO. Yes, many companies won't make it. Yes, bubbles come and go. Yes, some valuations will be stupid. Yes, there will be over-exuberance. But if you don't see the existing evidence of the business case, you probably shouldn't be investing in tech.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

If it were me, I'd take door number two. All the learnings. The top talent. The popular support. And not deal with those who turned on me.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

22 days

Long U.S. !! 🇺🇸🫡

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 years

VC advice tends to be awfully formulaic for being in the exception business.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 months

Many of the most successful founders I know are juggling work, family, kids, and a bunch of other life shit (aging parents, whatever). They just don't have the time or flexibility to be in the "scene" Honestly, often this seems to be more of a feature than a bug.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

Biometrics are good as usernames, not passwords. There just isn't sufficient entropy. And until we can resleeve a la Altered Carbon, you only have one body. @Apple products are in a race to be the least secure devices available.

3D-printed heads let hackers – and cops – unlock your phone | TechCrunch

There's a lot you can make with a 3D printer: prosthetics, corneas, firearms — even an Olympic-standard luge. You can even 3D-print a life-size replica of

techcrunch.com

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 years

Ran into another startup using their own kit to cut down on cloud costs. Their savings are ~40x (!!)

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

Once I really get to know a company (eg join the board), I'm always retroactively embarrassed by all the irrelevant/stupid questions I asked during the raise. I appreciate the patience and aplomb most founders show while muddling my way to understanding. So thanks 🙏🙏🙏

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

3 years

This chart really is stunning ...

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 months

Feel free to ping me instead of Ihar. I don't mind if the CEO doesn't show up for the first call.

Ihar Mahaniok

@mahaniok

6 months

Every time your CEO doesn't show up to the first call with a VC and delegates it to someone else, your company burns an opportunity to be considered by that VC. Fundraising is a CEO job, full stop.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

3 years

Further, my experience is that admissions at top schools are far less forgiving of "life getting in the way" or flubbed standardized test scores, so I suspect the distributions actually look more like this:

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 years

0/ Most first time founders screw up their board by optimizing for the wrong things. Having built multiple of my own (and screwed up) and having sat on dozens more, here are a few things to keep in mind 👇

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 years

“At Google’s New York office, highly skilled workers now outnumber their colleagues in sales and marketing.” ... total ignorance. In fact, I’d argue it’s much harder to hire a very good marketer than de engineer. Particularly in NY

Silicon Valley’s Newest Rival: The Banks of the Hudson (Published 2020)

Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google will soon have 20,000 workers in New York City, many in offices on the West Side.

www.nytimes.com

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 years

The tech hiring market is going crazy right now. Most recruiting firms I work with are saturated with demand and don't have the people to handle all the searches. 🚀🚀🚀🚀

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 months

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 years

In a coffee shop in Palo Alto and three pitches are going on nearby. Love it. The startup ecosystem thrives on downturns. And I’m here for it 💪

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

We wouldn’t be here without @sama . One of the very few people who have moved the industry to a new epoch. So thank you for that 🫡

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 months

thank fucking god for Yann .... protect him at all costs.

Yann LeCun

@ylecun

4 months

It seems to me that before "urgently figuring out how to control AI systems much smarter than us" we need to have the beginning of a hint of a design for a system smarter than a house cat. Such a sense of urgency reveals an extremely distorted view of reality. No wonder the more

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

What a dick move.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 months

This is such an awful bill. Weiner chooses to listen to two Canadian academics and a fringe group in Berkeley over many Ca. voices who will have to deal with this nonsense. This is absolutely anti little tech, anti open source, and anti AI research and innovation.

Senator Scott Wiener

@Scott_Wiener

4 months

The Senate passed our AI safety & innovation bill, SB 1047. SB 1047 promotes innovation & ensures developers of the largest, most powerful AI models keep safety in mind. I look forward to continuing to work with all stakeholders to make sure this bill is as good as it can be.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

10 months

There isn't a shred of evidence that AI poses a paradigmatic shift in safety that requires new regulation. And we should not draft charters or policies that suggest differently.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

3 years

Startups, this is an amazing time to regain talent from public companies. In up markets they poach from you with crazy RSU offers Now that prices are down ~30% ... those packages are far less attractive. Go get that talent back ...

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

6 years

0/ GTM Partnering for pre-chasm startups is hard. Really hard. I don’t recommend it. Like writing, if you really know what you’re doing, break the rules. But my view is partnering is one of leading causes of wasted time, effort and misspent hope. This thread details why ...

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

8 days

Actually, low skilled, uncontrolled immigration is a big contributor to what made America what it is today (positively).

kache

@yacineMTB

8 days

@fchollet he's speaking about uncontrolled low skill immigration, and not what has made america what it is today imo

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 months

The browsers wars weren't about the browser. They were about the access layer to the Internet. The AI trust and safety wars are not about trust and safety ..

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

4 months

The state of tech policy is really scary: - policy makers don't get tech - they rely on input from large companies - technical academia is almost totally silent - startups don't have policy arms and aren't mobilized This is the perfect setup for full regulatory capture.

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

11 months

I still can’t get over the president of Microsoft … the corporation … Implying we should trust tech from a non-profit over a …. (checks notes) … corporation

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

3 years

Final point. I don't believe GPA correlates strongly to work performance as this thread might suggest. I don't believe a university degree does either. I'm just using it as an exemplary metric for the discussion. But that's a separate topic for a separate thread /fin

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

1 month

Huge! Multiple democratic California members of congress have submitted a letter to @GavinNewsom against SB 1047! Signatories including @RepZoeLofgren , @RepAnnaEshoo , @RoKhanna , @RepScottPeters , @RepCardenas , @RepBera , @Nanette4CA and @RepLouCorrea Please help amplify!

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 months

LLMs don't reason. They're a reason cache with fuzzy matching. The extent they generalize is a function of how prior reasoning applies to future knowledge and configurations of the universe. I suspect the answer to that is "not very much".

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

5 months

So very excited for the promotion of @JenniferHli to GP. She's a primary reason @a16z enterprise investing is what it is, being a key player behind so many deals, our team and our investment philosophy and process. She really is "the best of us".

Jennifer Li | Andreessen Horowitz

Jennifer Li is being promoted to General Partner at a16z. She will continue to invest broadly within the enterprise space, focusing on infra.

a16z.com

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martin_casado

@martin_casado

2 years

0/ Descriptions of finding product market fit, and category creation often miss the hard part of getting to $10m in ARR ... ... which is the crazy effort required to tug, pull and hammer the shit out of the product *and* the market to make them hold together 👇

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