I occasionally tweet summaries of papers I find particularly interesting/important/enjoyable or collect a number of thematically related pieces in a thread.
This 🧵-of-🧵 collects them.
🥳I loved my PhD
@CamEcon
& feeling fortunate that I'll get to continue doing research as a job alongside wonderful colleagues:
I'll be moving to the 🇺🇸 first as a postdoc
@Columbia_Biz
, before joining
@BostonCollege
as an AP!
Excited for this new chapter NYC → Boston!
"tech firms hired one in seven newly minted PhDs [from ten leading economics graduate programmes in the US] in 2022, up from less than one in 20 in 2018"
Excited to present my JMP: 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿 𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗺𝘀!
❓What do firms do? And why are they increasingly important in shaping labor market inequality?
👉This paper highlights the role of specialization, teams & competition for talent.
🔗
👇Summary-🧵
👉 Individuals who excelled in the International Mathematical Olympiads born in poorer countries are systematically less likely to engage in knowledge production.
"Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster" by
@RuchirAgarwal_
& Gaule (2020, AER:I).
Who would have thought that it's the German Treasury --- repeat after me: the German Treasury! -- who pulls out the bazooka to fight a crisis! Unlimited liquidity support for firms (via KfW lending).
Very good news re: mitigating -ve econ impact in both short- and medium-run.
Bundesfinanzminister
@OlafScholz
zu Auswirkungen des
#Coronavirus
: Bundesregierung wird alles tun, um diese Krise zu meistern und unser Land gut durch diese schwierige Zeit zu steuern. Deutschland ist sehr gut aufgestellt, um diese Krise gemeinsam zu meistern.
#CoronaVirusDE
Very happy that
@c_cantore
& my paper
"Workers, capitalists, and the government: fiscal policy and income (re)distribution"
is forthcoming in the Journal of Monetary Economics 🥳
🔗 (open access 🙏
@Gates_Cambridge
)
👇 Summary-🧵
The PhD can be tough and scary. But sometimes research -- and to me: econ -- is just beautiful and exhilarating. What a privilege to have time to ponder and puzzle.
🚨New 📜"Superstar Teams"
🔗
❓Does it matter for the macroeconomy who works with whom?
🔧Model of firm organization + micro data (🇩🇪+🇵🇹)
👉Yes! Importance of coworker interdependencies has ⬆️ & this helps explain⬆️between-firm inequality
👇Summary-🧵
Rogerson's (2024) JEL paper argues that labor supply, and how it responds to policies, matters for understanding macroeconomic outcomes across countries -- more so than you'd think based on a typical undergrad macro textbook.
🔗
👇 Brief summary-🧵
"Models, Measurement, and the Language of Empirical Economics" by Phil Haile is a great public good.
🔗
(I've recommended it in 1:1s many times, so thought it'd be worth tweeting it out, too.)
Fascinating JMP by
@JustinBloesch
(with
@BirtheLarsenCph
and
@Bledi_Taska
).
Argues that productive firms share rents with workers only in occupations where workers have individual hold-up power; supported by a very careful theoretical framework and empirical implementation.
Together with Pontus Rendahl I wrote a brief column on
@VoxEU
making the point that banks do not create money out of thin air -- at least not in an economically meaningful sense.
Very happy to be spending this academic year
@PrincetonEcon
! After a series of pandemic-related delays, it's all the more exciting to finally be here. Many thanks to
@glviolante
& Ezra Oberfield for hosting.
❓How unequal is consumption between the top 0.01% and the median adult, before/during/after lockdowns?
👉How to answer this + many other Qs using granular bank transaction data from Spain in this paper by Carvalho et al.
❗️Amazing what 3bn transactions can shed light on
🧵
Technological transitions are *slower* when skill specificity is *stronger* b/c it is driven less by the fast reallocation of older incumbent workers and more by the gradual entry of *younger* generations.
One insight from Adao,
@MartinBeraja
, and
@nityanayar
(2022).
A mini-🧵
The debate about the likely effects, the pro's and con's of a 🇩🇪 ban of energy imports from 🇷🇺 on Twitter has been rather...lively, and the threads & replies are hard to trace. Would take lots of time to sort carefully, but...
👇a list of a bunch of threads I learned from (🙏)
Beautiful new paper by
@ChristianKWolf
.
=> In an extended NK model, under strong Ricardian non-equivalence fiscal policy using stimulus checks can perfectly substitute for monetary policy (potentially s.t. ELB) in terms of implementable agg. allocations.
🥳Excited that Wouter Den Haan (
@LSEEcon
), Pontus Rendahl (
@CBScph
) & my paper
"Volatile Hiring: Uncertainty in Search and Matching Models"
is now forthcoming in the
Journal of Monetary Economics.
🔗
👇 Summary-🧵
An informative diagrammatic literature review of the process by which the Real Business Cycle literature and Search-and-Matching literature merged, with contributions especially in the 1990s, by Valerie Ramey (h/t Wouter Den Haan).
Borovickova & Macaluso (2023) use Austrian labor market data to underscore how worker with different life time earnings experience very different job-to-job mobility patterns -- connecting life-cycle earnings patterns to labor market mobility.
🔗
Broer-
@jvkramer1
-
@SorryToBeKurt
use 🇩🇪 admin data on labor-market histories to study the heterogeneous incidence of monetary policy.
👉Monetary surprise shocks affect income growth more at the bottom of the earnings distribution, where separation rates are more countercylical.
"Worker Mobility in Production Networks" -- neat paper that brings together employer-employee data and firm-to-firm transactions to demonstrate the role played by production networks in shaping the job search and matching process.
🔗
Rich review of "Firms and inequality" in 🇬🇧 by De Loecker, Obermeier, and
@johnvanreenen
(part of the
@TheIFS
Deaton Review).
👉Firm inequality has increased: companies are looking ⏫different in terms of productivity, wages, markups and size.
🔗
❓ What is the impact of "short-termism" for firms and the economy?
👉 Terry (2023,
@ecmaEditors
) argues that even though for *firms*, short-term profit pressures can improve value by restricting R&D, at the *aggregate* level, it tends to lower growth and social welfare.
I guess a job market experience isn't fully complete without a series of flight cancellations and exploring the possibility of driving a rental car from Canada to the US 😅
Jaimovich-Terry-Vincent (2023) argue that modeling the distribution of idiosyncratic shocks that firms face in line with observed revenue dynamics
-- instead of a Gaussian AR(1) specification -- can amplify the sensitivity of firm exit rates to economic shifts.
Super interesting to see evidence on diffusion of novel technologies across (i) geographies and (ii) jobs with different skill levels...
... in this paper by
@I_Am_NickBloom
, Hassan,
@AakashKalyani
, Lerner,
@tahoun100
.
🔗
Very interesting
@gideonrachman
Review podcast episode with
@adam_tooze
on "The global politics of climate change". Particularly appreciated the connections made between geopolitics and climate policy, with color added through historical lens.
"From Micro to Macro in an Equilibrium Diffusion Model" from Brooks-Donovan-Johnson offers such a fantastically transparent discussion of how RCT treatment effect estimates can be leveraged to calibrate a quantitative GE model (Section 3.3 especially).
🔗
Elegant new working paper -- "New Pricing Models, Same Old Phillips Curves?" -- by
@a_auclert
, Rigato, Rognlie,
@ludwigstraub
.
👉 The aggregate Phillips curve for a menu cost model looks like the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but with a higher slope.
Greatly enjoyed interviewing
@helene_rey
for
@CamEcon
& learning about her upcoming Keynes Lecture, broader research agenda, and the
@cepr_org
Women in Economics initiative she is leading.
👉Livestream tomorrow, Tuesday, at 5pm:
Super interesting paper by
@pilossopher
(
@DukeEcon
) & Jane Ryngaert (
@nd_econ
)
👉 Employed workers who expect higher inflation are more likely to search for jobs and are subsequently more likely to have a job-to-job transition.
🔗
Working with micro data can be painful, having to go to a secure data room, cleaning, etc. *But*-- as I'm leaving said data room, hello Nuremberg -- isn't it also just *incredible* that we can study people's (un-) employment trajectories, see how wages evolve, and so on?!
An interesting theoretical model to consider in the debate about "greedflation," by
@MIHarding
-Linde-
@MathiasTrabandt
(forthcoming in the JME).
Incorporate Kimball (1995) quasi-kinked goods demand into a workhorse NK model -> convexity in optimal price setting and Phillips curve
Investing time & effort into teaching isn't exactly incentivised in the academy/PhD, but when you receive feedback that tells you how doing so seems to have helped students, it's *so* worth it.
(Normally hesitant sharing personal things, but this made me *so* happy.)
Fantastic overview paper "The unreasonable effectiveness of optimal transport in economics" (
@AlfredGalichon
), covering the basics and many applications, as well as providing some deeper points of interpretation in the conclusion (see excerpt).
🔗
What explains the sharply different inflation dynamics during the recoveries from the Great Recession & Covid-19?
@SerdarBirinci9
@yfatihkarahan
@ayusufmercan
See (2023) argue that elevated worker mobility in post-pandemic times generated around 0.6ppts additional inflation.
Acemoglu,
@ufukakcigit
, Celik (2022) look at one determinant of "radical" innovation: the contribution of younger managers & inventors.
👉 The ➕correlation b/w CEO age and radical innovations seems to be mostly due to sorting, rather than reflecting a (big) causal effect.
Very much looking forward to joining
@bankofengland
Research Hub as a PhD intern for 12 weeks from tomorrow onward, to discuss and learn from the fantastic team of economists
@BoE_Research
, and gain a better understanding of how academic research can be made relevant to policy!
Exactly 4 years ago we learnt that Leave had won the
#Brexit
referendum 52/48.
I didn't sleep a single hour that night and spent the following Fri(day) in shock and disbelief.
I suppose one personal lesson is not to take for granted liberties you greatly value.
New work by
@SorryToBeKurt
& M Hagedorn stimulated several interesting exchanges about monetary + fiscal policy and their effects on inflation. Here is a thread pulling together the different strands to make the ideas more accessible.
To me:
#EconTwitter
at its best.
Fiscal rules are a prominent topic of discussion, including on here.
But assessing "fiscal discipline efforts" is difficult b/c outcomes are imperfectly controlled by policymakers.
Barnichon-Mesters (2024) propose a revealed-preference approach to measuring fiscal discipline.
Computational Macro Summer School taught by Wouter den Haan, Pontus Rendahl and Petr Sedláček: 3-7 Aug & 10-14 Aug, this year hosted by
@OxfordEconDept
.
#EconTwitter
More info:
Krusell-Thuerwaechter-Weiss (
@OnuWeiss
) document that investment by young firms is more sensitive to interest rate shocks & rationalize this through a life-cycle model with fixed adj costs.
👉Mon. policy will be less potent in economy with older firms.
🔗
Thought-provoking
@nberpubs
WP by Hall &
@MariannaKudlyak
How to reconcile labor market recoveries with small moves in inflation?
👉Suggest this is not b/c of a flat Phillips curve, but b/c inflation pressure -- the gap b/w actual U-rate and NAIRU -- in recoveries is close to 0
"Distributional Considerations for Monetary Policy Strategy" by Feiveson et al. (2020)
👉Macroeconomic stabilization benefits of makeup strategies, such as average inflation targeting, are + larger in a HANK-type environment than in a rep. agent New Keynesian model.
Interesting background reading on (some of) the
#Fed
research informing its review of and today's announcement of a change in the monetary policy framework.
Proud of my brother
@AndresFreundTec
-- with his skills & meticulous attention to detail -- for catching a malicious backdoor that could've posed a critical supply chain threat (⚡cyber attacks) in Linux systems.
Shall also adopt the 👇 nickname: "silver back gorilla of nerds"
The xz backdoor was initially caught by a software engineer at Microsoft. He noticed 500ms lag and thought something was suspicious.
This is the Silver Back Gorilla of nerds. The internet final boss.
A 🧵 on team production in science 🧪 & academia more generally: on benefits & bottlenecks and the joy when discovering an unexpected empirical result supporting a theoretical conjecture.
Interesting paper &
@voxeu
column (links👇) by Coibion et al.:
👉Causal evidence for effect of macro-uncertainty on household spending
🔧RCT based on ECB Consumer Expectations Survey
❗️ (baseline): 1 sd⬆️in uncertainty⬇️monthly spending by almost 5ppt on impact+3months later
Fascinating paper by
@JHamilton_UCSD
:
Demand-driven business cycle fluctuations w/o nominal rigidities due to a team production requirement, ie production of some goods requires multiple, specialized workers committed in advance.
🔗
Interesting new paper by Sorkin & Wallskog: "The Slow Diffusion of Earnings Inequality"
👉Many of the important US firm-level labor market
trends in the last 30 years -- ⬆️ between-firm wage dispersion, sorting, productivity dispersion -- have an important cohort dimension.
My colleague
@CamEcon
Vivek Roy-Chowdhury is not on Twitter *but* he is a fantastic JMC with expertise in micro-theory & experimental econ:
Take a look at his JMP on "Temptation to Consume Information" (perhaps familiar to all of us on Twitter 😉):
🔗
#MMT
has received a ton of attention on
#econtwitter
and beyond over the past few months, but my impression is that exchanges b/w MMT-folks are often not v productive. Following thread covers 4 "meta observations" trying to pinpoint issues and suggest more productive ways. 1/n
"New work" is central to our everyday lives -- most of us work in job specialties introduced since 1940 (see figure) -- and understanding its nature/sources/consequences is key to a comprehensive picture of technological change. This paper documents "new work" in great richness.
A fantastic SITE 2022 session - The Macroeconomics of Uncertainty and Volatility. ~20 presentations illustrating the richness & breadth of research around this topic, and so fun to finally meet up in person!
👇 adding additional threads pointed out to me (thanks!):
------
@sguriev
&
@itskhoki
argue that stopping purchases of Russian oil and gas is likely to be the fastest + economically most efficient way to stop Putin’s war in Ukraine.
(h/t
@ben_moll
)
w/
@sguriev
we argue that European embargo on Russian oil and gas is the fastest way to end the war by stopping Putin’s ability to finance it. Any other policy option is more costly and dangerous. It is not just a humanitarian, but also an economic imperative for Europe. 1/n
2 recent topics on
#EconTwitter
: i) why econ twitter & EJMR seem so fundamentally different; ii) this offer by
@DinaPomeranz
to junior academics. I find it hard not to believe that public norm/example-setting by individuals like her play a big role in explaining i). Thank you!
Econs & aspiring econs, if you have questions you'd like to ask the academic econ community about the academic process (e.g. RAing, PhD, publication process, etc.) you can DM or email me confidentially and I'll tweet out your questions to
#EconTwitter
without your name attached.
💡steps toward bridging Keynesian & search perspectives in "A Theory of Non-Coasean Labor Markets" (Blanco
@DrenikAndres
@economoser
@e_zaratiegui
), which can speak to inefficient job separations; those shape impact of monetary shocks & can be identified using standard microdata.
New WP by
@CarrilloTudela
,
@KaasLeo
, Lochner: evidence from 🇩🇪 on how workers &
firms match via different search channels.
👉 High-wage firms more likely to (i) hire through job postings, (ii) poach when using postings and (iii) hire a high-wage worker through this channel.
Very interesting
@nberpubs
WP by
@PaigeOuimet
& G Tate on "Firms with Benefits".
👉In the US, firms which employ high-wage workers are also the firms that provide the most generous health benefits to their workers across the board.
Much more in the paper, 🔗 below.
Concerned about a strange, loud noise in Cambridge this eve? Don't worry, that was just me bellowing out 🇨🇭 Christmas carols into the laptop mic to compensate for me not being able to be with family in-person😅
Coles & Kelishomi (2018, AEJ:Macro) emphasize how relaxing the free-entry assumption of the standard DMP model critically changes implied unemployment dynamics. With imperfectly elastic vacancy posting, job separation shocks play a more important role in driving U fluctuations.
Interested in productivity (growth slowdown), hysteresis and the effects of the financial crisis? Then you should check out the paper "Intangible Investment and the Persistent Effect of Financial Crises on Output " by my
@Cambridge_Uni
colleague
@RidderMaarten
.
👇Summary
1/n
Very cool that
@XinchengQiu
is -- not only doing amazing research but also -- organizing a virtual reading group/workshop on cutting-edge papers "Labor, Firms, and Macro" (cf. screenshot; sometimes other presenters like me sneak in.) Thanks a lot!
@_LukasFreund_
told us about his work with Hanbaek and Pontus. The key insight is that uncertainty shocks ≠ aggregate demand shocks due to a risk premium channel that increases both unemployment and inflation, hence a flatter Phillips curve. See link:
👇 Looking for distraction,
#EconTwitter
?
📃 Extensively revised paper "Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: Fiscal Policy and Income (Re)Distribution," joint w/
@c_cantore
🙏 Incorporated valuable feedback
🔗
👇 Summary
Super interesting paper by
@MartaMorazzoni
, using a rich combination of micro data and theory to demonstrate how student loans interact with entrepreneurial dynamics & exploring policy implications.
🔗
Very cool paper by Yukun Liu that uses
@EmsiBG
data on online job vacancy postings to confirm the correlations between search frictions, expected returns, and cash flows implied by modern search-and-matching models.
🔗
I really appreciated this podcast exchange between
@ezraklein
and
@sullydish
on identity politics, liberalism and conservatism - above all, for their attempt to listen to each other and understand differences as well as common ground.
📢 The VAR TOOLBOX 3.0 is now available 📢
The VAR Toolbox is a collection of Matlab codes to perform Vector Autoregression analysis. It comes with a "Primer on VARs" (code + slides) with examples and replications of well-known papers
[Short thread] 👇🏼
New CEPR WP with
@tlebarbanchon
&
@juliensauvagnat
is out!
We study a topical subject 🔥: what is the role of hiring difficulties for firm growth?
The pandemic has turned the spotlight on this issue as the share of firms unable to fill jobs hit a record high globally🌎📈
Check out
@lukasfmann
's (
@PrincetonEcon
) super cool JMP!
He finds that spatial sorting of workers and firms plays an important role in linking aggregate inequality and spatial inequality, using a novel clustering method & a dynamic spatial search model.
📢 My Job Market Paper is now online!
It digs into an important question we know surprisingly little about:
Why has inequality across space increased in so many countries?
It turns out, the answer to this question tells us a lot about... (1/8)
Interesting evidence on household responses to job loss using Danish data in
@voxeu
column by Andersen & co-authors.
⬇️in spending accounts for 30% of ⬇️in disposable income, leaving a gap of 70% reflecting self-insurance.
🔑mechanism: lower accumulation of liquid assets (~50%)
Happy to have completed an extensively revised version of
📄 "Workers, Capitalists, and the Government: Fiscal Policy and Income (Re)Distribution," joint with
@c_cantore
(
@BoE_Research
)
Hopefully the old parts are sharper & the new bits interesting!
🔗
@charliekirk11
Who is helped by such generalisations (crony capitalism and market socialism are just to tag lines to illustrate that it's more complex)?! Let's instead research which aspects of capitalism work and which need intervention by government to promote social welfare.
An encouraging development -- and interesting parallel to the US? (
@Noahpinion
,
@SAshworthHayes
): "Negativity about immigration falls away sharply in Brexit Britain". Via
@FT
Really cool use of detailed personnel records in
@VirginiaMinni
's (
@LSEEcon
) JMP to provide evidence of how good managers match workers’ specific skills to specialized jobs, boosting worker earnings and firm productivity.
🔗
👇Cool paper by
@jakekohlhepp
using new theory + rich micro data (task assignments in hair salons) showing how the internal organization of firms matters for product quality & mediates the equilibrium effects of policies like minimum wages or sales taxes.
Despite one rebuttal after another
@guardian
keeps publishing these under-researched pieces. L. Elliott doesn't seem to be on Twitter, but I would be so curious and grateful to
@KathViner
to hear what the rationale and justification for this publishing behaviour is?
#EconTwitter
Here is the balanced response to last year's ignorant economics bashing from
@guardian
from
@orazio_at
@orianabandiera
@ImranRasul3
and many others. The critique applies as much to this article as to last years, suggesting an unfortunately ability to listen and engage.