Regular reminder that extreme poverty has fallen hugely in recent decades and has never been this low in human history!
Even after the short increase due to Covid, the improving trend recovered quickly:
There's some discussion on Twitter about male academics being unsure whether to mentor women because they're unclear what behavior is ok.
Let me try to break it down:
Als jรผdische Nachfahrin von Holocaust-รberlebenden hรคtte ich nie gedacht, dass wir solche Plakate mal wieder sehen wรผrden. "Wehret den Anfรคngen" wurde uns beigebracht, und alle nickten. Was tun wir jetzt?
There is a persistent myth of "the happy poor". It's just that: a myth.
While happiness and life satisfaction are of course driven by many other things as well, people in poor countries are on average much more unhappy. Economic growth matters.
What many people don't know: recent decades have seen incredible reductions in poverty. The poverty rate has *never before* been this low in human history.
What new data is now revealing: after the setback from Covid, poverty reduction now continues!
Nike is reading the signs of the time. They are no charity organization. They are investing in a brand that reflects and speaks to the values of the generation of the future. That this is their analysis of the market makes me hopeful.
@Kaepernick7
It's possible to at the same time
-condemn Hamas
-stand against antisemitism
-stand against islamophobia
-support Israel's right to exist
-oppose Israel's policies
-feel solidarity with Palestinian victims
-feel solidarity with Israeli victims
Why is this hard to understand?
Amazing animation by
@countcarbon
showing the demographic transition over the last 150 years! From a world of high fertility and high child mortality to low fertility with few children dying:
Economics โ business
Business leader โ economist
Economics โ business
Business leader โ economist
Economics โ business
Business leader โ economist
Economics โ business
Business leader โ economist
Economics โ business
Business leader โ economist
Economics โ business
Did you know?
Every day:
- The number of people around the world living in extreme poverty (less than about $2 a day) goes down by 217,000.
- 325,000 people gain access to electricity.
- 300,000 people gain access to clean drinking water.
Did you know?
-Global rates of extreme poverty are falling for any poverty line we choose
-Global income inequality is falling
-World median income almost doubled from 2003 to 2013
-Income inequality within countries is constant on average (up in some countries, down in others)
It's grad school application season. If you're applying from a lower income country or family, here's an important piece of information that many don't know:
Most US schools will waive the application fees for you if you cannot afford them! Just email the school and ask for it.
This is a nice way to display Covid infections by vaccination status. Hopefully other outlets will follow.
The difference in hospitalizations is even larger, since those who get infected despite the vaccine are much less likely to develop a severe case.
Ht
@EricTopol
A person in Ghana consumes, on average, less energy per year than a refrigerator. A person in Ethiopia obly 1/5 as much.
It is morally wrong and practically ineffective to try to address the climate crisis by denying the poorest more access to energy
Two facts many people don't know:
1) The global median income has doubled in 17 years from 2000 to 2017. A stunningly rapid progress the world has *never* seen before. (Adjusted for prices, so not due to inflation)
2) Still half the people in the world have less than $7 per day
People have a very warped sense of what personal actions help to reduce CO2 emissions.
Highly over-estimated effectiveness:
- No more plastic bags
- Regional/seasonal food
Highly underestimated:
- No more meat
How to behave like the 1%:
1. Spend time with impressive people
2. Detach emotions from business
3. Be efficient with your time
4. Form your own opinions
5. See fear as opportunity
6. Know how to commit
7. Worry about yourself
8. Value education
9. Embrace failure
Did you know? After millennia of agricultural expansion, the world has passed โpeak agricultural landโ.
The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling:
How economics has changed through the decades since the 1950s, as seen in the paper titles of the economics journals AER, JPE and QJE.
Paper by
@hugomoises
and Brice:
Ht
@DurRobert
Impressive visualization of geographical inequality.
France (population 65 million) has a similar GDP as all of Africa combined (population 1.4 billion), Switzerland similar to all of Central America and the Caribbean:
An Excel error led to some people in the UK not being contacted by contact tracers. This allowed researchers to analyze the impact of contact tracing, by comparing places where this happened to the rest. 1500 more people died!
-> Contact tracing has a large effect.
Also an Excel error cost led to an estimated 1,500 deaths in the UK last year. The UK COVID contact tracing effort saved to an old Excel file format (.XLS) rather than the new one (.XLSX) & smaller row limits resulted in names being dropped. They were never contacted by tracers.
PSA: Your worth as a human being is not your publications, not your income, not your career trajectory or prizes won. If it starts to feel that way, take some time to spend with people who care about none of these things.
Rare to find an issue with so much agreement among economists:
The benefits to US, Canada, Europe, Japan and other rich countries of paying for 12 billion doses of COVID vaccine and giving them for free to the rest of the world are greater than the cost.
At a recent professional event (outside academia):
- One man: "It's so hard to get women for senior positions because they lack confidence."
- Another, after I made a point forcefully & asked he let me finish when he interrupted: "Wow, you're quite emotional."
#WomenLearnToShutUp
Corona-Economics:
We are not in a recession now because the economy is struggling. We are artificially freezing parts of the economy as a medical intervention to slow down the virus. That is a good thing, and economic policy can mitigate the side effects of this treatment:
1/2
Swiss voters today decided by significant margins to
- Introduce 2 weeks paternity leave
- Reject a proposal to limit immigration from the EU
- Reject family tax cuts that would have benefitted mostly the rich
(Switzerland votes on issues several times a year)
#DirectDemocracy
Excess mortality during Covid compared to usual mortality:
Peru 153%
Ecuador 80%
Mexico 61%
Brazil 40%
Russia 28%
Chile 27%
US 22%
Italy 19%
UK 18%
Swiss 13%
NL, France 12%
Sweden 10%
Germany, Hong Kong, Costa Rica 4%
Denmark, Japan, Uruguay and 16 others: none
Ht
@SDullien
Hier sind die "child penalties" von Einkommen von Mรผttern fรผr verschiedene Lรคnder: Wieviel weniger Frauen nach der Geburt eines Kinders lรคngerfristig verdienen.
Dรคnemark 21%
Schweden 26%
USA 31%
UK 44%
รsterreich 51%
Deutschland 61%
Schweiz 68% (!)
Unpopular opinion: I think most people who claim to actually study for 80 hours a week are likely deluding themselves. Human brains usually don't work that way. People probably aren't tracking how much time of focused work they really do. Don't let such talk freak you out.
Successful people tend to underestimate the amount of luck involved in getting them to where they are. If things are going well for you professionally or financially, beware.
If the world continues its reduction of extreme poverty at the current rate, we could see an end to the most extreme form of poverty (less than $2 a day) in the next 20 years.
100 years ago, 80% of human beings lived below that poverty line.
(This is adjusted for prices.)
81% of ocean plastics come from Asian rivers.
0.6% from Europe.
Reducing plastic straws in Europe will not save the oceans. Measures need to be smart and targeted.
If we want to end the pollution of the oceans with plastic, we need to understand where the plastic comes from.
@_HannahRitchie
recently answered this question here on Our World in Data:
The world has witnessed incredible poverty reduction in recent decades.
*Never* in human history a smaller share of the population lived with less than the equivalent of $2.15 a day.
In 1820 around 80% lived in extreme poverty. Today less than 10%.
US border agent: What are you doing in Boston?
Me: I'm working on my PhD
BA: Wow, you work!? But you are on a student visa. That is illegal! Please go to the special inspections room over there...
#reallyhappened
Border agent: why were you in Kenya?
Me: I was going research for my PhD in economics
BA: What is your research about?
Me: How noise affects peopleโs productivity
BA: How is that economics?
#reallyhappened
.
@ezraklein
wonders on his show today whether there are any people out there for whom Twitter brings out the best in them.
Since for me, the answer is an emphatic "yes!", I thought I'd share some practices that might potentially contribute to that.
1/n
Economists, are you teaching about the impacts of minimum wages? Then you might be interested in adding this excellent empirical paper.
Contrary to what many of us were taught based on theoretical predictions, there seems to relatively little negative impact on employment.
Pleased to announce that our paper quantifying the overall effect of US minimum wages on low-wage jobs is now forthcoming at the Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Here's the current version:
Reviewing a paper about a developing country? Don't be the Referee 2 who's main comment is "How externally valid is this setting?"
Research about low-income countries is already highly under-represented. Don't make it harder by thinking it's weird just because you don't know it.
My two cents FWIW: Having a field called "development economics" makes no sense. It is essentially all fields of economics related to the 84% of people in the world who don't live in high-income countries. It is good to see it gradually absorbed into the other fields of econ.
Most research is about rich countries, even though 76% of the world's population live in middle-income and 9% in low-income countries.
This imbalance has important consequences for what tools, products and policies are available to decision-makers in the South.
Whatever happened to the hole in the ozone layer?
Most countries in the world came together in a treaty, and humanity cut emissions by over 75%.
As a result, the hole stopped growing in the 1990s and recently started to shrink again:
Good morning world in 2019!
Did you know? Never before in history has the human race been as rich, healthy, long-living and educated as today!
To see more details on the ways humanity has changed, check out the many topics on
It's called economic growth :) Thanks to growth, people in rich countries no longer need to work 65 hours a week, as they did 150 years ago, and at the same time they are richer.
Leisure is a what economists call a "normal good": as we get richer, we consume more of it.
Germans have gone from being the most industrious people to the laziest: Hours per worker in Germany halved from 1900 to 2000. The downtrend has been remarkably stable: for at least 150yrs, w/exception of World War II, every generation has worked fewer hoursย than its predecessor.
This is what the current President of the larger chamber of the Swiss Parliament looks like (akin to the US Speaker of the House of Representatives).
Kind of cool :) And you can run into her on the street. Probably unthinkable in the US and many other countries.
#Democracy
Met Ms.
@KaelinIrene
, President of the National Council, Switzerland, Green National Councilor and President of ArbeitAargau that espouses the cause of going green because we only have one earth.
Christmas wish: an econ online course that teaches new developments of estimation in empirical micro, in an applied way, for people who have already completed their PhD but want to keep up with latest advances. E.g. one lecture a month, with exercises.
#EconTwitter
Building more housing leads to lower rents.
One reason so many people get confused about this is that they look only at the rent of the new units. To understand the impact, it is key to take into account how the increase of housing supply affects the other rents.
New paper by economist
@MNDjourel
showing with rigorous evidence how language can matter:
When the Associated Press stopped using the term "illegal immigrant", there was a causal effect on readers' views on immigration policy.
ht
@ellliottt
I love Israel, I have family there. But sadly, the current government is right wing extremist. A government that speaks like that is dangerous. It is not only dangerous to the Palestinian people, but also for the future of Jewish Israelis and everyone who lives there.
One of the more shocking realizations of this pandemic to me is how many key decision makers have difficulty with basic concepts of statistics & data interpretation. Across all political parties & sectors of the economy, including finance. Big obstacle to good decision making.
I'm going to live tweet Esther Duflo's Master Lecture at the NBER Development Economics meeting on "Machinistas meet Randomistas: Some useful ML tools for RCT researchers"
Wow, this graphic showing wealth to scale and in relation to other things blew me away.
I study such things for a living and still found it very instructive. Keep scrolling to the right.
Ht
@j_theriault
&
@NeilLewisJr
The share of humans living in the worst form of poverty (less $2.15 dollars a day) has fallen by 3/4 since 1990(!)
The share of people with less than $3.65 has fallen by half.
The share with incomes over $10/day grew from 25% to over 40%.
(All of these are adjusted for prices)
University students from low- and middle-income countries:
This semester many courses take place online. Several professors in Europe & North America have opened their class for international students to participate remotely!
See full list & apply here:
Unpopular opinion: selecting job candidates based on extent to which they follow etiquette, etc. can often end up selecting for class and having unintended discriminatory effects.
In 1950, the US had the highest GDP per person in the world.
Today, the *worldwide* GDP per person is as high as it was in the US back then (adjusted for changes in prices).
Global living standards have grown tremendously.
Ht
@frank_pinter
@MaxCRoser
GDP per person, 1950-2016 (adjusted for price changes):
- 9 countries saw a reduction
- 9 countries saw over 15-fold increase
- DR Congo: fell by half
- World: grew 4.4-fold
- Botswana, Panana, Portugal: 9-fold
- China: 16-fold
- Taiwan, SKorea: >30-fold
For the New Year, I'll share a few trends of the past decade.
Since for many longer-term trends, data is not yet available until 2019, I will post the last available 10 years.
Happy New Year!
In recent days, since I tweeted more about
#BlackLivesMatter
& the need to address racism in all our institutions, I notice that more people than usual unfollow me. I understand the reflex to look away. These are uncomfortable topics. But we white people need to stop looking away
If a study doesn't replicate in a new context, that doesn't imply researchers of the original study did something wrong or that science is a bunch of crap. It doesn't even necessarily mean the replication is better than the original. It means science is constant work in progress.
Things we should teach to prepare people for academic careers, but typically don't:
- Management skills (hiring, giving feedback, conflict resolution, etc.)
- How to write effective referee reports
- How to apply for grants
- How to choose co-authors
- Time management
- Self care
Income inequality within countries has *not* risen overall.
Over the last 25 years, inequality has gone up in some countries and has fallen in others.
The average Gini measure of inequality fell somewhat, from 39.6 to 38.6.
Whenever someone claims to know the single cause of a complex societal problem and an obvious solution, I tend to lose my motivation to read further...