Satellite data implies China's GDP is about $7 trillion smaller than what the CCP says. It's a given that they lie extensively about their data, but a $7 trillion difference would be quite the whopper.
@pjozefak
@Brett_Kavanagh
Just gotta embrace it for the icebreaker and conversation starter that is. Plus it helps people to remember you more easily (good or bad). :)
During coffee with a European founder raising a Series A after working in the US for years -
Founder: Wanna see the deck?
Me: Sure.
Founder: Which version?
Me: ?
Founder: The one for US investors or European investors?
Me: Big difference?
Founder: One's realistic.
Universal Music received $107k worth of Uber shares in the seed round in exchange for the domain name it owned from a previous investment. They sold their shares in the Series A round the following year for $863k. Those shares were worth $532M at IPO.
"A16Z is doing the same thing to the venture capital industry. It is not just acting strategically in order to gain an advantage. It is imposing a whole new cost structure on its competitors."
@mr_james_c
One degrowther just commented to me that degrowth is only meant for the developed world and not the developing world. If they truly believe that it shows they don’t understand how economies work in the 21st century.
“The Forbes 30 Under 30 have collectively raised $5.3B in funding. The Forbes 30 Under 30 have also been arrested for frauds and scams worth over $18.5B.”
Just got sent this article from someone in the European ecosystem saying "wow, 75 millionaires from Klarna!" 😳 A company valued at $45.6B should produce a hell of a lot more than 75 millionaires.
Big, poorly performing funds make more money for the partnership than small, good performing funds.
@tmrohan
lays out the truth as to why so many VCs grow their fund size.
Been seeing a lot of profiles on LinkedIn with "award winning entrepreneur" in the title. While nowhere near as bad as the GOAT bullshit LinkedIn self-descriptor of "visionary", of all the ways to qualify success as an entrepreneur I wouldn't put winning an award high up the list
Met a friend from one of Europe’s biggest family offices for breakfast. I asked which current investments do they think have real growth potential in Europe. Answer was a chain of hearing aid stores, and a portfolio of retirement homes. Old Europe is full of old Europeans. 👴🏻👵🏻
Some VCs seem to think there’s a larger problem with the economy because many of their B2B SaaS portfolio companies are struggling, when in reality they just invested in bad and mediocre software companies at too high of valuations.
Folks in the tech industry are tempted to think that the U.S. economy is doing bad because software had a big bust over the last two years.
But the broader U.S. economy seems to basically ignore what happens in Silicon Valley.
A European VC just seriously told me that if we invested everything into climatetech and solved the climate crisis we wouldn’t have to worry about security and defense. 🤦🏻♂️ Apparently there were no conflicts prior to the industrial revolution. 🤷🏻♂️
A lot of VCs are just dumb.
“Building an entry-level factory that produces 50k wafers per month costs about $15B...they become obsolete in 5 years or less...the brutal economics of the industry mean fewer companies can afford to keep up.”
Historic!
The EU becomes the very first continent to set clear rules for the use of AI 🇪🇺
The
#AIAct
is much more than a rulebook — it's a launchpad for EU startups and researchers to lead the global AI race.
The best is yet to come! 👍
The title says it all. Germany is willing to PAY $16 billion in order to use new (imported, polluting, CO2-emitting) gas generation, in place of clean domestic nuclear generation (i.e., simply restarting existing nuclear plants). Article link in reply.
The article goes onto
“You win a war against America when we stop believing that technology is a force for good, but rather black magic to be scared of, feared, controlled, and ultimately extinguished by people who write white papers for a living.” Banger of a speech here by
@KTmBoyle
. 👏🏻
European venture has a serious exit problem. Was at a dinner this week with some LPs in European VC and all have older funds in their portfolio with major unrealized gains. 10+ year old funds with 7x-10x TVPIs but DPIs under 1.5x. They want liquidity before new commitments.
US pension funds are 15% of LP base in German venture, whereas German pension funds are less than 1% of LP base in German venture. US pensions have €4.7B in German unicorns. German pensions have €94M. 😳 via
@RedstoneVC
"Only three companies in the world — Intel, Samsung and TSMC — are capable of mass producing chips powerful and small enough for today’s advanced mobile technologies."
Nice primer - with loads of visuals - from the FT on computer chip manufacturing.
“Europe’s smaller but most tech-oriented members rarely feel heard in the halls of Brussels, even as they often disagree with the Commission’s agenda.” The EU should let the Nordics and Baltics lead on tech…instead they have Germany and France instead.
Euro VC: We’re a different kind of VC and want to go outside the box to hire an associate. Know anyone?
Me: Sure. *makes some intros*
A few months later.
Me: Who’d you hire?
Euro VC: A b-school grad who spent 2 years in consulting.
Me: 🤦🏻♂️
Europe never changes its spots.
VC Funding Per Capita By European Country:
🥇 🇪🇪 Estonia (€1967)
🥈 🇸🇪 Sweden (€1769)
🥉 🇨🇭 Switzerland (€1414)
Part of a good report by
@dealroomco
on Central and Eastern European startups.
Not sure why this is rubbing some in Europe the wrong way. It’s damn tough to find partner level profiles in Europe. Few have scaled companies or have track record as investors. Not an insult to Europe, just where the ecosystem’s at in its development.
VCs are on track to close 2023 with 73% less capital committed than 2022. 📉
"Exits dropped off a cliff in mid-2022 and have failed to pick back up, leaving gobs of LP capital tied up in late-stage unicorns."
Nice chart from the folks at
@dealroomco
. Europe is a MUCH healthier place for startups than when I first came over in 2007. Still a long way to go, but steady improvement across the board.
A friend of mine is Paris is an automotive exec. He has direct reports under him in Detroit that make 2x what he does. The cost of living in Detroit is significantly lower than Paris. Middle of nowhere US salaries are beating those in major European capitals.
"Europe needs more scientists in VC to become a deeptech powerhouse". Except data shows that PhDs underperform as VCs. It's better to just have a great network of scientists for DD.
Average age a founder started a future European unicorn is 33. Top three schools for European unicorn founders are Oxford, LSE, and Cambridge. 15% don't have a university degree. 🦄
"One thing that Europe is not lacking is capital. What is absent is intent....total AUM in the region amounted to a colossal €28.4T in the third quarter of 2022. The trouble is only a tiny fraction of that total is allocated to growth capital."
“Junior people here ask me ‘Hey at this other firm young people are going on boards, can I be on a board?’, I say you haven’t earned the right...just because you got an MBA and joined a venture firm doesn’t mean you’re qualified to advise an entrepreneur.”
"Europe’s exceptional talent is too spread out; founders, cities, and regulators need to pursue dense talent clusters to improve rates of success."
Yup. 💯
The French government this week wanted to organise a big conference on working 4 days a week, but then realised Wednesday and Thursday are bank holidays and everyone is taking Friday off.
France in May: you can't even get enough people for a meeting to discuss working less
“You need to choose between building your startup and building a company that gets EU grants…roughly 50% of your activities in funded projects will go towards writing reports.” EU grant programs are at best neutral for European innovation.
Hardware will constitute 60% of "technology" revenue over the next five years, but has received only 10% of venture investment over the past five years.
Oh ffs.🤦♂️This is harmful messaging. European venture is starting to produce top decile returns (none of which are represented in this EIC fund team btw) and the message here to the world is not only that it's broken, but it's the EU that can fix it?! 😳
This is idiotic. I’ve known lots of US and European military officers. None, literally none, have ever wanted war. Investing in defense is about deterrence, not warmongering.
How the Besties Think About Defense Investing
Last week,
@friedberg
,
@DavidSacks
, and
@chamath
discussed investing in defense startups:
Both Sacks and Chamath said they would have to think twice about investing in startups that made weapons.
But, both have invested in defense
Eric Schmidt says it's going to be rare to see the successes in Europe that you see in America and the UK:
"The fundamental reason is that they can't get the capital and Europe's regulatory structure is so prohibitive
It's really sad because the European talent pool is amazing,
Historic!
The EU becomes the very first continent to set clear rules for the use of AI 🇪🇺
The
#AIAct
is much more than a rulebook — it's a launchpad for EU startups and researchers to lead the global AI race.
The best is yet to come! 👍
Love that there’s meetups of deeptech founders at Oxford who don’t want to go along with the uni’s status quo of funding (OSE), called ‘The Resistance’.
“a leading university in Scotland wanting 20-40% of a spinout company without any cash investment, were told that Stanford often asked for 5-10% at most. Their response? ‘Well, it sounds like Stanford has a lot to learn.’” 🤣
- A person who is 40 is 2.1x as likely to found a successful startup as a person who is 25.
- A 40 year old is 1.3x as likely as a 25 year old to found a startup that is in the top 0.1%.
- Avg founder age of the fastest-growing 0.1% of companies is 45.
“We came to the conclusion that a nice simple outcome would be 20% equity stake to the university and 80% to the founders…it’s a take-it-or-leave-it offer. For us, we think it’s a reasonable number.” Do European TTOs not hear the words they're saying?
Entrepreneur realising they need to pivot to superconductors after having just recently pivoted to AI...from Web3...from crypto...from SaaS...from DTC...from fintech...
TGIF!
If you’re not ok investing in dual use, then you’re not ok investing in deeptech. Honestly, the anti defensetech view reeks of entitlement. The same LPs opposing it benefit from the security of living in safe countries with trade protected by militaries.
The socialist Spanish minister goes in a private plane to a climate event. 100 mts before the venue she gets off the car and takes a bicicle. The security cars follow her.
"VC is fundamentally about two things:
1. Deal flow
2. Deal access
To get both without a track record, you need to be good at telling stories.
...this is marketing, not finance."
#IA
: "Nous sommes le premier continent à avoir bâti une réglementation pour l'intelligence artificielle", assure
@ThierryBreton
. "La loi existe, a été votée par le Conseil européen et sera votée en avril au Parlement. Faire une loi en 2 ans, c'est un exploit !"
@franceinter
A lot of companies are never going to recover from the silly high valuations they raised at. A lot of funds are never going to recover from the silly high valuations they invested at.
"if
@efounders
were a startup, it would employ 1833 people, make 153M EUR in revenue, and would be valued at 2.5B EUR (multiple x16). A rather successful business if you ask me." -
@tiboel
Damn impressive. Much respect.
My Monday morning started with a meeting with corporate "innovation experts". Here's to jumping into the abyss of the week with vigour and ferocity. See you on the other side!
Based on various WhatsApp groups I'm in, there's a shockingly high number of European VCs who can't figure out how to get around paywalls in 2023, and/or don't have some essential media subscriptions.
“I'm not saying regulation is bad. I'm saying that bad regulation isn't good."
This! 🎯 When it comes to tech and innovation the EU doesn't have the best track record on regulation.
"Just 49% of British deep-tech firms reach their second funding round, compared with 63% for American ones. By the sixth funding round, the average American deep-tech firm has raised £113M; the average British one just £25M."