Three years ago today I proposed to my fiancé at Disneyland.
He lost his job as a high school teacher at a catholic school because of this proposal. (Seriously)
This was months before the entire world shut down.
Still not married, but more in love than ever.
Racists were OBSESSED w/ "The Little Mermaid" in Asian markets.
But now they're SILENT as it dominates Japan's box office (world's 3rd largest market).
TLM has been the
#1
film for weeks, recently beating out newer films "Spider-Man: ATSV" & "The Flash"
#TheLittleMermaid
win!
Universal's Theme Park 2022 revenue (a record for them) of $7.541B equals Disney's Theme Park revenue from 1995 when properly adjusted for inflation.
In terms of Park revenue, Universal is currently where Disney was 27 years ago.
In the "War on Woke" between Ron DeSantis and The Walt Disney Company, there is a clear winner: Disney!
Since the 'spat' between the two in Florida, Disney's theme park revenue has SOARED, hitting new all-time highs and averaging an increase of more than $1 billion a quarter…
Disney Parks purposefully capped attendance throughout 2022 w/ a limiting reservation system and a reduction of annual passes.
Turning away a lot of people.
Yet, the Magic Kingdom and Disneyland were STILL the most visited theme parks in the world for '22.
[1/10]
DISNEY PARKS DIVISION GUIDE: OVERVIEW
I have created this breakdown of the Disney Parks & Experiences division, with the domestic and international resorts, as well as non-resort assets.
If you write about or cover Disney, this is a great guide for this MASSIVE division.
Enjoy
My fiancé & I both received frantic calls from family who saw on Fox News that massive violent riots were breaking out all around Time Square in response to Tyre Nichols.
Here’s a video from 7:30pm on 52nd & Broadway.
Safe & sound. The fear mongering media is SO dangerous.
Investments in Florida?
Looking at the environment and the changing climate, I can't understand why companies like Disney or Universal would heavily invest in multi-decade projects in Florida.
Heat waves and hurricanes are only going to get worse.
1/10
Disney's recent animated films are saving the Walt Disney Company.
The biggest move Disney has made in 25 yrs was shifting to streaming in late '19.
Since then, Disney's animated films have been the
#1
streaming movie every year, making them Disney's most valuable assets.
[1/18]
The question is no longer "which media company has the biggest hits?"
Rather, it is "which company has has the strongest non-media revenue stream?"
Disney has the biggest advantage, among legacy media companies, with their theme park division. Sadly, the rest aren't so lucky.…
Disney's "The Little Mermaid" is the most anticipated film of the Summer!
Our investment group surveyed 5,000+ folks & asked their anticipation and likelihood they'll see the 14 major summer films.
The sample reflected general movie audiences.
⬇️See below for the rankings⬇️
(With the SAG/WGA strikes all productions have ceased, leaving time to visit old shows.)
What popular TV series are you ashamed to admit you've never seen?
I'll go first...
- Breaking Bad
- The Wire
- Mad Men
This weekend will be huge at the domestic box office:
- Barbie is looking to dominate
- Oppenheimer should do pretty good
- MI:7 will likely have a strong hold
- Elemental, Sound of Freedom, and Spider-Man should continue to leg out nicely.
BUT...
1/7
With all of the talk about Disney selling their linear television assets after Bob Iger's interview on CNBC, I thought I would put together an overview of this division for The Walt Disney Company.
This includes the networks and channels, not the studios or streaming services.
🧵"The Wizarding World of Harry Potter" at Universal Orlando is beautifully themed, no question, BUT it is the WORST designed theme park land for guest flow and operational efficiency and enjoyment.
I'll show you what I mean w/ 5 Problem Areas below...
⬇️⬇️ (1/19)
"GO WOKE GO BROKE" continues to be proven wrong.
The far-right: "Disney+ lost subs for the first time, this is because Disney is going WOKE!"
The facts?
- Disney+ GAINED subs in US, Canada, Europe, and Latin America
- Disney owned Hulu GAINED subs
- ESPN+ GAINED subs
(1/4)
DEVESTATED! On Nov 1st I proposed to my partner in
@Disneyland
... three months later he was forced to resign his job as an English Teacher at Kennedy Catholic High in Seattle, because of the same sex engagement. It’s heartbreaking 😢 Parents/students are protesting on Tuesday
According to the “How much does __ film need to make at the box office to succeed” crowd, Encanto was a flop.
But it wasn’t.
It was a MASSIVE hit for Disney.
Biggest streaming film of 2022.
Disney’s most successful song of all-time.
This box office obsession is myopic & stupid.
After last weekend’s big box office tally, here is the updated “2023 Domestic Box Office” totals by distributor:
#1
Disney $1.51B
#2
Universal $1.24B
#3
Sony $691m
#4
Paramount $538m
#5
Warner Bros $459m
#6
Lionsgate $341m
Moves Disney Needs to Make
1. Buy Snapchat. (DISTRIBUTION)
2. Sell minority interest of ESPN to NBA, NFL, and MLB. (CONTENT)
3. Finally buy Hulu. (MARKET SHARE)
4. Sell Freeform and a number of intl networks acquired from Fox. (CASH)
Here is why...
I put together this visual overview of the revenue sources, specific costs, and final operating income for The Walt Disney Company's Parks, Experiences and Products division for last quarter.
A nice guide for visual learners.
Disney announces earnings for Q3 on August 9th.
How much revenue does each major media company bring in per day?
Averaging the last three quarters of each company, we can start to get a good picture:
- DISNEY: $242.5m
- WARNER BROS DISCOVERY: $116.8m
- UNIVERSAL: $107.5m
- NETFLIX: $88m
- PARAMOUNT: $82.6m
Hear me out…
What if the Marvel Cinematic Universe just wanted a couple of storylines in shows and movies to depict female characters of different ethnicities to speak directly to those segments of the fandom, win over some new fans, and hopefully entertain a chunk of the…
🧵$DIS Disney CEO Bob Chapek and Park's Chairman Josh D'Amaro made a tough, but brilliant decision to launch Genie+, a new service that charges guests for Fast Passes.
The decision, though controversial, likely saved The Walt Disney Company, here is how and why...
(1/32)
🧵DISNEY'S SCALE
There's A LOT of confusion about Disney's size, especially when it concerns theatrical box office performance.
How do films like "The Little Mermaid" compare to the entirety of Disney and what impact do box office hits & flops have? You'd be surprised
⬇️⬇️
1/15
🧵Disney needs to start breaking things again, move beyond the 2010s, and start ignoring Wall Street for a bit.
Disney is uniquely positioned to survive the changing media landscape and continue to thrive. But it is going to have to make some drastic (and unpopular) moves.
1/25
2023 Domestic Box Office by Distributor
(as of 8/3/23)
1. Disney | $1.559 billion
2. Universal | $1.343 billion
3. Sony Pictures | $703 million
4. Warner Bros | $667 million
5. Paramount Pictures | $572 million
6. Lionsgate | $342 million
🧵Biggest Media story of the year is without a doubt, the decline of Netflix in the first half of 2022.
This lead directly to Bob Chapek out at Disney, Zaslav's handling of Warner Bros Discovery, the 'new normal' of ad-tiers, and countless layoffs,
Let's look closer...
1/23
Disney’s Hocus Pocus 2 broke the record for most views (in one week) for ANY film in streaming history.
A film starring three women (ages 76, 65, and 57).
Written by a woman.
Directed by a woman.
Produced by a woman.
And edited by a woman.
—
We need more of this in Hollywood!
The online discourse is wildly out of touch w/ reality:
- Disney has the
#1
box office of '23
- Disney owns 30% of market, Universal only 25%
- Disney released half the # of films as Sony, yet earned DOUBLE the box office.
- Disney's per film avg is 3 TIMES that of Universal.
1/9
FLORIDA PROBLEM:
Both Disney and Universal have seen stalled and slumping returns from their Florida parks, while their California parks are experiencing strong growth.
It’s been widely reported that Florida tourism is down, while California tourism is surging.
1/8
Disney is more popular than ever!
Disneyland's "Oogie Boogie Bash" Halloween event sold out in record time, even w/ extra dates and a 5.6% annual ticket increase.
Tickets have sold out faster each yr, despite price hikes.
Countless were left w/out tickets as demand spiked.
🧵Walt Disney Animation has not released an animated sequel (or previously-known IP) theatrically since 2019, when...
- Frozen II made $1.45 billion (making it the most successful animated film of all-time).
(1/18)
🧵Ten months ago Bob Iger said that theatrical isn't going to come back to where it was.
Saying theaters suffered a permanent scar that was exasperated by the pandemic and that theatrical isn't dead, but it will be much smaller.
He was completely right, it's clear today.
1/12
DISNEY/APPLE Speculation
So I've avoided talking about this, but folks are asking me about it a lot today.
Privately I've been saying that some sort of sale to big tech seems increasingly likely. (Some of you can vouch that I've held this position privately for awhile).
1/20
Barbie's preview box office is the best of 2023.
However, it would've ranked only 4th in 2022, behind Thor Love and Thunder.
In fact, Barbie AND Oppenheimer's COMBINED preview box office is $3 million less that last year's Doctor Strange sequel preview.
The stories I am hearing about the Bob Chapek / Iger CEO shuffle at Disney are wild. When the entire saga is eventually told, it won't look anything like the perfectly manicured story currently being sold.
2023 Box Office 7/4/23
#1
DISNEY $1.4B
9 films | Avg $155m per
#2
UNIVERSAL $1.1B
21 films | Avg $53m per
#3
SONY $576m
17 films | Avg $34m per
#4
PARAMOUNT $402m
6 films | Avg $67m per
#5
LIONSGATE $327m
7 films | Avg $47m per
#6
WARNER BROS 267m
7 films | Avg $38m per
Universal Studios continues to model their theme park division after Six Flags rather than Disney, which is probably smart considering their subpar IP and ongoing lack of any meaningful cultural impact.
Universal should be commended for being self-aware and adjusting accordingly.
I receive countless DMs from folks struggling w/ alcoholism and addiction who thank me for being open about my recovery.
So let me say it again, loud and pride: I am a sober man in recovery.
God willing, this August, I'll celebrate 8 years.
1/15
Let’s just get this straight.
The Marvel Cinematic Universe is currently the most successful franchise of all-time.
Any media company would kill for a franchise half as successful as the MCU.
Even the MCU’s biggest miss (AntMan3) is still the 7th highest grossing film of the…
Now that Disney is 100 years and 1 day old, it is time to have an adult conversation about Disney as a business and the recent 9 year low stock price. $DIS
Let's not bury the lead, the company is extremely undervalued right now and the current stock price is not reflective of the…
Nov 1st I proposed to my partner in
@Disneyland
Feb 13th my partner was forced to resign as a high school teacher
Today, Feb 18th, students walk out in protest.
This was one of the most amazing things I have ever witnessed. Our engagement should be celebrated not punished.
In one week,
@TheEternals
has already out performed the box office of Dune's 3 week run and the entire box office run of Halloween Kills, The Suicide Squad, Godzilla vs. Kong, and Wonder Woman 1984.
This narrative that it is a failure is clickbait nonsense.
The best analogy for the MCU is the NFL.
With preseason, regular season, playoffs, and the Super Bowl all mirroring a Marvel "saga."
It explains box office returns and helps put to rest the "marvel fatigue" nonsense.
Let me explain...
(1/12)
Thread 🧵DISNEY RELYING ON FRANCHISES
Last week I was interviewed by a well-known media reporter who asked me my thoughts on Disney CEO Bob Iger's recent statements about "focusing on franchises."
Maybe it is my legal training, but my answer was "it depends."
Classic.
(1/18)
HUGE "A" CinemaScore for Disney Pixar's Elemental.
This is wonderful news and is a good sign for strong word of mouth and long summer legs.
A huge win for
@Pixar
and
@DisneyStudios
#Elemental
Top 10 domestic box office of '22 and '23 have 20 movies, 19 of which are based on established IP and 1 is an original biopic.
How do folks look at that data and conclude that audiences are souring on sequels, remakes, and established IP?
This 'analysis' is asinine.
1/4
Here is one of the MANY reasons I compare Universal theme parks with Six Flags, rather than with Disney.
Q4 2022 revenue:
Disney $7.2B
Universal $2.1B
Six Flags $0.4B
--
The gap between Disney & Universal is 3X greater than the gap between Universal & Six Flags.
🧵BARBIE REVIEW
I'm not sure how I feel about this movie. Sadly.
I really really liked it, but I didn't LOVE it. It definitely doesn't live up to the hype and I don't know if I could recommend the film.
1/18 ⬇️⬇️
(1/2) Many of you guys didn’t know I used to teach dance when I was younger.
Yep, I’m a Lawyer, Investor, AND Dancer! Lol
Im full of surprises.
This last weekend I went to a wedding with former dance students, one of whom is currently dancing on tour with Taylor Swift.
(Please Read) In 2019 I proposed to my fiancé at
@Disneyland
I surprised him with 8 of our friends and had shirts made announcing the engagement. A manager in New Orleans square saw our shirts and got us reserved seating for Fantasmic. Cast members moved us to the front..
Here is a comparison of 2023 Q4 Theme Park revenue of Disney versus Universal. Disney pulled in nearly FOUR times (3.85x) the revenue of Universal.
They are NOT in the same galaxy in terms of businesses. It is not fair to Universal to hold them to such high standards.
I know…
Folks will always play up theatrical successes.
The cold reality is that regardless of these blips, the box office and theatrical industry is in structural decline and will maintain its decline.
Studios need to adjust quickly or collapse. This is no longer 'if' but 'when.'
Halle Bailey
@HalleBailey
has had a FLAWLESS press tour for
#TheLittleMermaid
She entered the lion’s den with grace and beauty and avoided the land mines set by folks looking to see her fail.
The world watched and she responded with kindness, letting her talent speak for itself.
What Marvel fatigue?
In the last year(ish) 5 Marvel sequels were released. When adjusted, 4 of the 5 outperformed their predecessor, the one holdout, Black Panther, had lost its titular character.
The box office for the newest MCU sequels are +24%.
That is HUGE!
One year into Genie+ (aka 'paid fast pass') at the Disney Parks and it is clear that CEO Bob Chapek and Parks Chairman Josh D'Amaro's foresight saved the Walt Disney Company with this tough decision, avoiding a potential catastrophe.
I will Tweet a thread explaining this later.
Disney’s
#thelittlemermaid
is not just Disney’s best live-action remake, it is the best film they’ve released in years.
The original is precious and has been seared into our childhoods. So skepticism is natural, but all concerns quickly wash away once Halle hits the screen.
"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" is finally opening wide this weekend. The project has gone through so many changes with the death of Chadwick Boseman, I can't believe it is actually here.
I have my Friday night tickets.
Is anyone else seeing it this weekend?
#WakandaForever
Disney Park Fans, the issues you have with the parks were implemented and executed by parks chairman Josh D'Amaro.
This echo chamber has created this fiction that Chapek forced this changes, against Josh's will, and that he desires to change them. NOTHING suggests that.
1/17
@kashcald
@maggieNYT
Three years on 8/30! I sponsor 8 guys all under 30 yrs old. So I’ve not only fed that bullshit, but I hear it all the time from newcomers. I smile when a new guy acts like that who is seeking help,it’s expected. But this guy uses these tactics to deflect personal responsibility
'Villains Con' aka 'Conveyer Belt of Boredom,' the newest ride at Universal Orlando, is possibly the worst ride ever at a major theme park.
Guests stand on an airport-style moving walkway and shoot at screens w/ bulky 90's laser tag guns.
Just what you want after walking all day.
1/🧵 DISNEY EARNINGS THREAD 👇👇
In just a few minutes Disney $DIS will be revealing their fiscal 2024 q1 earnings.
Remember, Disney's fiscal year starts on Oct 1st. So these earnings cover 10/1-12/31/23.
Stock is hovering around $98-99 ... this will change today.
(cont...)
Theme Park Revenue Comparison
Calendar Q2 2023 (April through June '23)
Disney: $7.184 billion
Universal: $2.209 billion
Disney's theme parks generated nearly $5 billion more revenue than Universal's theme parks did last quarter alone.
As usual, a cultural moment and box office success has gone from impressive to ridiculous by this new no-bar-for-entry media "journalism."
Selfishly attempting to stand out by using the most absurd hyperbolic headline to frame something praiseworthy as something meteoric.
1/16
🧵Don't lump DC's failures in with Marvel.
In the last year the MCU has had a series of HUGE hits, with one (sort of) miss. The DCEU has had nothing but clunkers.
It's odd how these narratives take hold, yet a SIMPLE glance at the data proves them wrong.
(1/10)
Last night my fiancé and I watched ep 4 of "Only Murders in the Building" on Hulu and the two ep premier of "Ahsoka" on Disney+ and I can't remember a more entertaining block of quality television.
Moan all you want about streaming, but there is some amazing work being done.
Flight canceled after 7+ hrs stuck on tarmac
@AlaskaAir
I am happy to report that
@WaltDisneyWorld
rescheduled our entire trip for April, no cost, even though it was already 2 days into our booked trip when I spoke to someone.
Kudos to
@DisneyParks
and their customer service CMs
For the 'Go Woke Go Broke' crowd, let me ask you, where is the long list of wildly successful anti-woke entertainment to support your factually deficient argument?
Anti-woke entertainment should reign supreme across all metrics if WOKE is the death knell to success.
1/10
It's been one year since $DIS changed CEOs and one thing is clear: Bob Chapek's most controversial change among park fans continues to actively save The Walt Disney Company.
In '21 Disney swapped out free fast passes for paid Genie+ lightning lanes. And thank God they did.
1/8
🧵The favorite *hot take* from armchair media analysts is "studios need to lower film/show budgets."
Not only is the idea moronically simplistic (wikipedia is their only source), it actually runs COUNTER to every other suggestion from these idiots.
Let's dive in...
1/18
(Thread) DISNEY & APPLE
So much speculation so little analysis.
"Apple should buy Disney, it's smart for both companies" is how the story goes.
Folks point to balance sheets, cash, complimentary products (Dis content on Apple devices) but you all miss the biggest issue.
(1/19)
The “Coyote vs Acme” situation at Warner Bros sucks for the creatives who work not just for paychecks, but for the passion of entertaining audiences.
This is a clear example of how bad things are at WBD. I don’t think folks on Twitter truly grasp the situation.
1/6
GO WOKE GO BROKE
The fading cry of the DeSantis bots. But is it true?
Disney 2022 (their "wokest" year ever):
- Highest Grossing Movie of the Year: Avatar 2
- All-time Record Theme Park Revenue
- Most New Streaming Subs
- Highest rated Evening (ABC WNT) & Morning News (GMA)
(1/5)
🧵The Disney ESPN reporting has been fascinating! Puck➡️CNBC➡️NYT➡️WSJ
- Minority partners, potentially w/ leagues and/or big tech
- $30+ ESPN streamer (diff than espn+) in 2 yrs
- Live Hub w/ links to competion
- Leagues balancing relationships w/ non Dis/ESPN distributors
1/5
THREAD 🧵
DISNEY EARNINGS: Expected in a few minutes.
Things to look for...
- Will they change streaming profitability date currently set for next year?
- Has linear decline sped up? (we know this will be rough, but how rough?)
/1
Here's a tip for travel journalists:
Don't base your theme park reporting on wait times.
It's widely known that times are often not accurate and are manipulated to move guests around the park for operational reasons.
Not really an accurate measurement of anything.
Also...
1/15
Disneyland’s Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance absolutely obliterated the record for highest boarding group.
Reaching group 330! 🥳🥳
The west coast has this dialed in perfectly. Wow.
There is so much nitpicking and analysis over Iger's plans for DISNEY's linear networks (ABC, ESPN, FX, Disney Channel, Freeform, etc) as that business rapidly declines, but what about the rest?
UNIVERSAL: NBC, Bravo, CNBC, E!, MSNBC, Oxygen, etc
WARNER BROS DISCOVERY: CNN, HBO,…
Disney’s Star Wars Galactic Starcruiser is getting strong positive reviews from the country’s largest news outlets, not just Disney Vloggers. For those who spent the last year predicting a huge flop, sorry not sorry.🤣🤣(Thread)
After 3 quarters of terrible subscriber growth, Netflix told investors "we're done worrying about sub growth, we're all about ARPU now BABYYYYYYY."
Their first qtr since that shift?
Sub Growth UP
USCAN ARPU down
...
They're becoming LESS profitable w/ MORE subscribers. 😵💫
Of the five major media companies Disney $DIS has seen their stock soar this year, up 24.51% adding nearly $50 billion in market cap in 4 1/2 months.
Netflix $NFLX up only 14%
Universal (Comcast) $CMCSA is actually DOWN 7.49%
Paramount $PARA and Warner Bros $WBD both down 15% and…
BREAKING: Disney Parks Chairman Josh D'Amaro says that Park Reservations are NOT going away.
DUH! HE developed and executed the system. You all can bury your head in the sand all you want, but all park changes since '20 were either fully developed or co-developed by Josh D'Amaro.
🧵ENTERTAINMENT MEDIA RANT
The problem with Box Office numbers is that they are so readily available yet so misleading.
So everyone has access to them, but they're easily misunderstood and they truly only tell chapter 1 of a multi-part story.
(1/25)
(1) THREAD 🧵 - Disney Fiscal Q1 Earnings
This is the thread I will be using to cover the Disney Q1 earnings. I will update it with the numbers, provide context, and help explain some of the more confusing issues.
So follow along, it should be an interesting one.