@BlackRock
CIO of Global Fixed Income | Emory and Wharton Alum | Go Orioles!
Lead PM for BINC, BSIIX, MALOX, MAWIX
Content intended for a U.S. audience
Thanks so much for the kind words,
@ptrmadurai
, and as we both know from managing large and complex organizations, it’s the great talent that you can develop that both brings the organization its success and makes the work so enjoyable!
At my 1st real job (aged 35)
@RickRieder
was my co-manager for first 5 yrs. I learnt a lot from Rick, incl. a work ethic, that market timing>>direction & the crucial value of finding & mentoring talent🙏
Happy but not surprised how far he’s gone👏
To elaborate on my interview last week on
@BloombergTV
, as well as my response to
@elonmusk
, a thread.
Restrictive policy rates have succeeded in slowing the rate-sensitive segments of the U.S. economy (including goods inflation), but a >5% Fed Funds rate is not doing much to…
We’re in the midst of witnessing
#BondMarketHistory
, as the peak to trough drawdown for the Barclays Long Treasury Index now exceeds -20% (not including today’s move), its worst
#drawdown
going back 40 years and meeting what many consider to be a bear
#market
!
The story of today’s CPI print is one told by Core Services ex- Shelter, which saw its largest MoM decline since Oct’22 and its first negative print in over two years. While Shelter remains stubbornly solid, the aggregate inflation picture looks to be moderating to a healthy…
While there is still considerable uncertainty over the forecast for
#inflation
, we think both Core
#CPI
and
#PCE
inflation peaked in March and February, respectively, and should move appreciably lower by the end of 2022.
This morning’s job openings data shows a labor market that has almost completely normalized from the pandemic shock. Measures of labor market tightness have completed their roundtrip as employers have found the right balance for their needs, all with very little job destruction.…
CIO Chart of the Week: Several service components that had been hot this year showed signs of moderation in the April CPI print. This positive development lends credibility to the idea Q1 may have seen some excess seasonality and keeps the chances of rate cuts this year alive.
Today’s much anticipated
#CPI
report provided greater detail on the current
#inflation
picture, and importantly, on what the
@federalreserve
is most focused upon these days, and unfortunately, it’s hard to see it as anything other than a
#setback
.
I’m deeply saddened to learn of the passing of
@ScottMinerd
. I was fortunate to get to know Scott over the years, and his insights on markets and policy were truly extraordinary. My thoughts are with Scott’s family and his team
@GuggenheimPtnrs
.
The November
#CPI
report is notable in part due to the fact that it displays the second consecutive month of more moderate price pressures, providing some signal that the underlying trend of
#inflation
is decelerating.
Why is the savings rate so low today? Debunking a common myth on ‘Excess Savings’…
There are several widely circulated ‘Excess Savings’ models that show the U.S. Consumer having spent down the above-normal savings accumulated during the pandemic. These models, which are…
"It's going to be sticky high for a while driven largely by the wage component. But it won't be at these levels we're seeing today," says
@RickRieder
on why
#inflation
will cool off later this year.
Incredibly, corporate net interest payments are dramatically down in recent years. Because much of the corporate credit market termed out its debt at <1% interest rates, companies are seeing significantly lower net interest payments than in the 2010s (despite significantly higher…
I’d like to thank
@WilliamGreen72
for inviting me onto the
#RicherWiserHappier
podcast. We had a great, and wide-ranging, conversation that was a lot of fun:
I'm thrilled to share the latest episode of the
#RicherWiserHappier
podcast: my conversation with the remarkable
@RickRieder
, who's responsible for $2.6 trillion at
@BlackRock
. He probably manages more money than any other investor on Earth. To listen:
Over the last three months, consumer confidence for the lowest-income cohort has fallen dramatically to the lowest levels since the depths of the pandemic, reflecting the disproportionate share of stress this cohort is taking on from high interest rates today.
It’s a very rare point in time when so much of the
#market
’s, and corporate executives’ and consumers’ attention is so laser focused on the monthly
#inflation
prints. To be more precise, it is now
#service
level inflation that commands virtually everyone’s attention.
CIO Chart of the Week: Over the last six months, the rates market (U.S. Treasury 10-Year yield) has run with several different narratives, resulting in a winding path that has ultimately left us almost exactly where we started. Meanwhile, equities (S&P 500) have returned +17%…
The last several weeks have been remarkable in that a series of considerably firmer
#inflation
,
#wage
and
#economic
data points have dramatically re-rated the market-implied probability of
@federalreserve
policy rate cuts by year end.
While rate sensitive segments of the economy are increasingly stressed, demand for services continues to boom – aided by high returns on cash & liquid investments that are accruing almost entirely to the largest spenders. The share of respondents planning a vacation to a foreign…
For most of U.S. history, economic output was a majority goods consumption and investment, which made it both more cyclical and more rate sensitive. Today, with services consumption at nearly 50% of GDP (up from 25% in the 1950s), more of the economy is insensitive to rates than…
A year ago, we called for
#Fedpause
1.0 - an end to rate hikes. Today, we call for
#Fedpause
2.0 - an end to rate cuts after next week’s presumed 25bps cut (barring major shock). From there, a focus on providing liquidity will be more effective policy, which the
#Fed
understands.
"I think we need to taper. The amount of liquidity that has gone into the system has been immense," says BlackRock's
@RickRieder
. "The question I get from clients everyday is are we overheating? There is some concern."
Yesterday’s
#CPI
data was highly anticipated by
#markets
, and particularly whether the elevated shelter
#inflation
from last month’s data ended up being a quirky aberration within service level inflation that is still quite a distance from the Fed’s 2% intermediate-term target.
I’m very honored that
@MorningstarInc
has recognized me and our team with its Outstanding Portfolio Manager
#MstarAwards
; it takes a lot of amazing people
@BlackRock
to help us deliver results for clients year after year.
Today’s policy statement from the
#FOMC
, and Chair
#Powell
’s press conference, were signals to economic observers and to market participants that the job of
#inflation
-fighting isn’t accomplished yet, but the trend is moving in the right direction.
CIO Chart of the Week: As of the first quarter of 2024, 68% of High Yield and 61% of Investment Grade issuance over the last 10 years happened when the Fed Funds rate was below 1%!
Due to the 10+ years of low interest rates preceding the current policy rate hiking cycle, much of…
Specifically, we know from the recently released
@NFIB
survey data that a historically high percentage of firms are reporting difficulties in filling positions.
Heading into the first weekend of the summer, what can a trip to the golf course teach us about inflation over the last 30 years? 🏌️ It turns out a whole lot. The change in how the costs of playing a round are distributed epitomizes the shift of pricing power from goods into…
There’s a lot said on what type of landing we’ll see for the U.S.
#economy
, and how policy will try to manipulate that flight pattern, but one point to keep in mind is that
#satellites
don’t land and maybe that is a better analogy for a modern advanced economy like the U.S.?
In the big picture, today’s
#CPI
data displays continued slow progress toward a lower y-o-y rate of
#inflation
, having come down from a cycle peak of 8.9% in June 2022 to the 6.4% reading today, at the headline level, which is the lowest 12-month inflation gain since Oct 2021.
So, some cohorts are net creditors that are benefitting from higher rates and keeping services consumption robust, while others are net debtors that are struggling under the pressure of higher rates.
In aggregate, though, rates are not slowing the consumer! If anything, we…
Today’s
#JobsReport
was a clear indication that
#LaborMarket
dynamics are softening. For example, the 3-mo. moving average of nonfarm
#payroll
growth sits at 247k jobs, after a higher-than-expected print of 223k jobs for Dec, in contrast to 2022’s average mo.
#job
gain of 375k.
Today’s October
#JobsReport
came in at 150,000 jobs gained, which was modestly below
#economists
’ consensus estimate of 180,000 jobs, and the prior two months data were revised significantly lower, by more than 100,000 jobs.
As we’ve argued many times in the past, the
#CashFlows
generated by today’s
#economy
are accruing to fewer and fewer corporate players, which is why it’s not surprising that the top 5 companies in the $SPX by market cap comprise nearly 21% of the index total.
.
#Economic
forecasters have finally accepted positive supply-side forces, such as increased levels of immigration, into their estimates of
#LaborMarket
growth, so it’s not surprising that consensus resided at near 250,000 jobs for April…
Today’s
@ism
manufacturing reading of 64.7 is the highest since 1983: Evidence continues to mount that we could be in the midst of the strongest
#economic
expansion in many decades.
With 303,000 jobs gained in the month of March the
#JobsReport
continued to look quite solid, and recent
#unemployment
claims, along with other separations indicators, still do not suggest the
#LaborMarket
is experiencing an “unexpected weakening.”
As was widely expected, the
@federalreserve
today halted the most aggressive policy rate
#HikingCycle
since 1980, leaving the Fed Funds range unchanged at 5.0% to 5.25%, a level that appears clear to us to be finally having an impact on the
#economy
.
After a year that gifted many a lump of coal to
#investors
, we believe that some silver linings can still be found in the
#investment
prospects for the year ahead. Here are some potential gifts for 2023 and a few
#prognostications
to boot:
With
#LaborMarkets
resilient and services
#inflation
firm, the watchword for the
@federalreserve
at today’s meeting was “patience,” as the
#FOMC
held rates steady while awaiting more data to gain “greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
I want to thank
@GoldmanSachs
for a great conversation about
#investing
and
#markets
. It’s a confusing and uncertain time for the economy, but we discuss some of the critical factors to consider at all times.
#Facebook
plans to spend $14B on ‘18 capex, rivaling Exxon’s oil/gas drilling capex; in 1Q alone,
#Google
spent $5.3B in capex, equivalent to the world’s largest miner’s entire ‘17 budget.
#Tech
+ discretionary sector capex is on par with energy’s 2013 “Supercycle” (4/5)
The
@sffed
visualized this very well in a recent analysis… the components of inflation that are “most responsive” to rates have completely normalized! It is the “least responsive” components that are responsible for the sticky inflation we are experiencing today... there is not…
Yesterday’s
#CPI
report witnessed meaningful improvement and the overriding direction of travel is clearly toward lower
#inflation
, particularly when measured against levels witnessed in recent years, but the monthly rate of change may remain volatile.
It’s important to note that most of the “least responsive” components are in the services sector, which is a much larger share of the economy today than it has been historically.
It used to be that slowing the rate-sensitive, goods-oriented, sectors was sufficient to slow the…
@elonmusk
@elonmusk
Yes, I think high rates are severely stressing low-income Americans, who have more debt, especially high-rate types such as credit card, auto, and student loan. Lowering rates would alleviate some pressure and, surprisingly, could even help inflation moderate from here.
With nonfarm
#payrolls
coming in at 517,000
#jobs
for the month of January we have yet to see much slowing at the headline level from the solid pace of job gains witnessed over the past few quarters.
Globally,
#CentralBanks
are attempting to quickly get a handle on
#inflation
, as we saw the
@bankofcanada
raise policy interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) on Wednesday, to 3.25%...
Last week’s
#JobsReport
for the month of November witnessed a solid 199,000 jobs gained, which was modestly above economists’ consensus estimate of 180,000
#jobs
, and the prior two months data were revised slightly lower, by 35,000 jobs.
Today’s robust
#inflation
data surprised in its strength and will likely persist in the short-run, and in some areas the intermediate-term, although we think that long-term the
@federalreserve
is largely correct in identifying real
#economy
price gains as mostly
#transitory
.
Though it hardly needs to be said, there are few historical precedents for us to look to that are truly comparable to recent
#Fed
policy moves. The 2008/09
#GFC
is an obvious analogue, but the pace and extent of
#policy
moves is even eclipsing that.
Our latest
@BlackRock
Market Insights commentary argues that a remarkable shift in the market’s perception of growth, inflation and policy trajectories means
#investors
should consider calling the
#market
equivalent of a time-out to reassess
#portfolios
:
In his
@federalreserve
#JacksonHole
speech
#ChairPowell
stated emphatically that the
#FOMC
’s “overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve and serves as the bedrock of our economy.”
As we described in recent weeks, we think
#markets
have entered into a new
#investment
regime characterized by rising real rates and stable breakevens, as
#investors
continue to price in more robust real economic growth potential.
We recently argued that after four years of extraordinarily abnormal economic conditions a great range of economic and market measures are now looking much more “normal,” with some areas of the
#employment
market still needing to reach capacity relative to pre-pandemic trend.
"The markets are in good shape," BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder says. "The demand for income, the demand for return — I've been doing this 35 years, [and] I've never seen the extraordinary amount of demand there is."
Today’s
#CPI
report was highly anticipated, as one of the most critical indicators of the
@federalreserve
’s unilateral directive toward bringing down excessive
#inflation
to levels more consistent with a normalized
#economy
and the intermediate-term policy goal of 2% inflation.
For 30 years, the U.S. consumer was a net debtor, but the incredible infusion of capital from the public sector has now resulted in the U.S. Household having no net debt in aggregate!
This means that, in aggregate, U.S. Households are not deterred by higher rates!
5/13
Today’s
#CPI
report reinforces an environment of more stable, but not excessive,
#inflation
. We’re witnessing the end of a period of
#disinflation
in many places, and the re-rating of growth and
#prices
to impressively higher levels.
We can see below how pernicious the interest payments on these forms of debt have become as they have surged to eclipse mortgage payments for the first time on record…
7/13
Yesterday’s
#FOMC
statement and press conference reflected a
@federalreserve
that is generally content with the progress they are seeing, expects to see more progress from here, and is ready to act if they don’t see it.
A few months ago,
#markets
expected U.S.
#inflation
to peak by mid-2022 at around 7% to 8% at the headline level and then anticipated that generalized
#price
gains would decline into year end, closing the year around 4%.
.
#Markets
continue to actively focus on the
#CPI
report, the PCE (and particularly
#CorePCE
) readings, PPI,
#wage
-related releases, etc., and while the news on
#inflation
is increasingly one of “no news is good news,” today’s data did come in firmer than many expected.
After an eventful week for developed
#market
central banks, it’s worth keeping in mind that other countries’
#CentralBanks
have already begun easing cycles.
This week will provide
#investors
with an abundant amount of new information, which can help to discern the direction of the
#economy
, monetary policy and
#markets
.
At yesterday’s
#FOMC
meeting, the Committee revealed more expected tightening and further steps toward
#tapering
#asset
purchases than they had previously. We see these as steps in the right direction.
Like the
#payroll
report a couple of weeks ago, today’s
#CPI
report showed that this year’s trends of persistent
#inflation
and an excessively tight labor market are taking longer to move toward the
@federalreserve
’s targeted levels than originally expected.
For many months now
@federalreserve
Chair
#Powell
has described his ideal interaction between policy tightening and the
#economy
as a “soft landing,” and we’ve been more sanguine than many that this result might still be possible.
Importantly, it is the beneficiaries of high rates that make up the majority of consumption and ultimately drive the aggregate economy (especially in services).
Hence, as these cohorts benefit from higher rates they are continuing to spend comfortably, which keeps pressure on…
Though, looking under the hood, we see the bottom 50% of the wealth distribution does take on some stress.
This cohort has less than $1 trillion of cash but holds $3 trillion of credit card & other non-mortgage debt.
This is especially relevant as these forms of debt, which are…
Market liquidity can always be challenging around month- , quarter-, and particularly, year-end, but this morning the short-term funding
#markets
witnessed worst
#liquidity
since 9-2016 money-market reform date: General Collateral traded around 4%, with large bid-offer spread.
Today’s
#JobsReport
data saw a gain of 390,000
#jobs
last month, bringing the three-month moving average for
#NFP
gains to 408,000 jobs, which marks a deceleration in trend job growth since the start of the year, when the measure resided at 580,000.
We learned from the
@federalreserve
’s statement,
#economic
projections, and press conference that this
#Fed
is still fighting
#inflation
, yet with a tacit acknowledgement that policy is extremely restrictive today and needs to be adjusted over the coming quarters.
As the
#JobsReport
data out today displayed clearly, the underlying momentum in hiring continues to moderate, and while we’re witnessing some signs of weakness in certain sectors, the jobs market does not appear to be falling apart and still has real need of people in some areas.
That would allow for an effective transition from reliance on rate
#policy
to a focus on
#liquidity
conditions: Rates that are too high or too low can hurt an
#economy
– and so can a shortage of liquidity:
#RatesCutBothWays
"The Fed has got to get off emergency conditions," says Rick Rieder. "You got to get out of the QE program which I think has taken too long...we are going to get that first rate hike in, then we are going to talk about--can you start to drain some of that excess liquidity."
Today’s
#CPI
report reinforces that we’re entering a period of strengthening, but not excessive,
#inflation
, and we’re witnessing the end to a long period of
#disinflation
in many parts of the economy.
Lastly, we believe it’s important to note that a vast majority of Household Deposits are held by the wealthiest cohorts (which also tend be older cohorts). These households are net creditors that are earning the highest real rates in >25 years on their net cash today. Meanwhile,…
It’s a well-known axiom that
#markets
hate
#uncertainty
, and lately with the focus on the U.S. election,
#Brexit
, a degree of
#financial
market over-speculation, and a dizzying array of changes/reversals in the prospects for further
#fiscal
policy: uncertainty has been abundant!
Essentially, what we’re witnessing is a slowing
#economy
, experiencing the long and variable lags typically involved with
#MonetaryPolicy
transmission, which is taking a long time to appear in the
#inflation
data.
Today’s
#JobsReport
was generally in-line with expectations, albeit marginally stronger, within a broad
#LaborMarket
data context that is still not softening enough for the
@federalreserve
to pause its aggressive
#tightening
cycle.
In our latest
@BlackRock
Market Insights commentary, we describe the elements of a
#portfolio
that can withstand the unique and complex “5 Category”
#financial
hurricane that is hitting
#markets
today:
Today’s
#JobsReport
was a reminder of how important certain segments of the
#LaborMarket
have been over the past year, or so, and especially the less cyclical areas of
#employment
, such as education and healthcare.
The
@federalreserve
’s
#FOMC
has now moved in 75 basis point increments four times this year to get to a sought-after
#policy
destination very quickly.
CIO Chart of the Week: While Friday’s payrolls report was robust, if we take a step back, we are seeing a healthy moderation of labor demand from nearly three and a half years of an extremely hot labor market. We believe the labor market is “underheating,” meaning we expect to…
Labor demand has normalized, and even looks a bit weak in certain areas. Balance is returning to the labor market. The Fed can find a lot of comfort in the progress here.
As was widely expected, the
@federalreserve
’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds
#policy
rate by 50 basis points (bps), to between 0.75% and 1.0%, and announced the start of
#runoff
of the central bank’s balance sheet.
We think that today’s report should delay the
#Fed
’s anticipated policy rate cut this summer, and it’s probable that cuts will be pushed off until late in the year, or beyond. Both we and the Fed will be keenly focused on all the inflation and growth data as we move forward.