Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

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Founder/CEO - , @RealVision . Trying to figure things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru. #DFTU

Little Cayman, Cayman Islands

https://t.co/X0fNJdnfzx

Joined April 2014

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Not on holiday yet so I'll allow myself one more thread... The markets are crazy! NFT are just jpegs! Dog coins! Cat coins! Tesla ! GameStop! Everyone is going to get burned! Don't they realize about discounted cash flows?!!! These people are ruining everything! Green energy?!

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

I'm presenting the case for crypto to 3,000 institutional clients and staff of a global investment bank this afternoon. Trying to do my part...and grateful for the opportunity. Wish me luck!

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

Took delivery of my @Tesla Model X Plaid today. It is without question the best car I ever owned. Faster than my previous Ferrari or 911 Turbo S . Better designed than any Merc or BMW I've had. It is simply one of the best pieces of consumer software and hardware ever. @elonmusk

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Tip: We are going to ATH's across all major crypto soon. Please, no last eyes, hubristic "told you" so or "I'm so amazing"posts or counting every thousand as we go. Just chill and let the number go up. gn.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

Opinion - Discord is unusable. Endless feed of stuff, all the time, everything gets lost, zero curation, cant track anything, like 1000 people shouting at each other in a bar, like Twitter without a basic algorithm. Urgh! We cant built web 3 communities on this...

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

The biggest impediment to BTC adoption are bitcoin maximalists. Few understand this. Be more open. Don't try to ram your points home. Support people and don't be tribal and never be abusive and insulting if someone doesn't share your BTC only views. It's a big world out there.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

These might be useful for you... BTC now vs 2013.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Yes, there is a bitcoin revolution but there is a digital asset revolution going on that is beyond incredible. It is very early days, like BTC in 2013, but it's happening. Some will be on the BTC blockchain but the vast majority will not be. 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Something to get your head around: Head Line: A major asset class crashed 42% in 14 days, wiping out $1.02trn in value in an orgy of liquidation of people up to 100 x levered, with very low regulation. Many tokens fell up to 70%, including unregulated lending and borrowing biz.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

I'm about to present The World's Best Trade (aka Bitcoin) to 150 European hedge funds and asset managers. Wish me luck. #wallofmoney

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

This is what I first saw in crypto back in 2012. A new, anti-fragile financial system that doesn't break in times of stress, where ownership of assets is clear and losses are not mutualised to tax payers. This was a big two weeks for crypto and for the future financial system.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

2013 is calling and wants it's mid-cycle bear market back...

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

It is so sad to see Twitter dissolve into angry people - value or commodity investors, BTC maxi's and other non-pragmatists - all screaming at anyone with different views. This is just investments, not a philosophical justice war. We all have different views and it's ok! Be nice.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

4 years

Important Thread: If you don't think Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, you are missing the big and important picture. This is going to be the biggest overhaul of the global financial system since Bretton Woods.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Ok, last bomb - I have a sell order in tomorrow to sell all my gold and to scale in to buy BTC and ETH (80/20). I dont own anything else (except some bond calls and some $'s). 98% of my liquid net worth. See, you can't categorize me except #irresponsiblylong Good night all.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

I want to publicly thank Max Keiser for abusing me on Twitter, flushing out all the toxic Bitconners (new term), allowing me to block a couple of hundred to clean up my feed! Cheers Max. Meanwhile, I love bitcoin and love the digital asset space. Onwards...

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

While we are all enjoying the volatility (actually I'm pretty impressed how people are taking it as par for the course and aren't overly freaked out!), here is what we are actually investing in - the fastest rate of adoption of any technology in all history. Volatility is noise.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

If you don’t see by now that the tokenization of everything is the biggest thing we have ever seen and will ever see, I cant help you as much. It dwarfs all other opportunities for risk reward over time. Web 3.0 is something few yet understand but will change business forever. 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

I have been showing this spooky chart of ETH now vs BTC in 2017 in various forms. This is my live CIX on Bloomberg.... even nailed this sell off....to the day and price. What happened next? A 300% rally. From tomorrow (ish). 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Just so we are clear - I am more than irresponsibly long ETH right now. I now have leverage but via calls. This is by far and away the biggest personal position of my entire life by a factor of 10 (or more). My view horizon for this part of the trade is 6 to 9 months.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Im finding it very hard to not get extremely bullish about the next few months. Almost every crypto chart looks coiled and ready for a big move after months of consolidation. Here are the two charts that matter to me right now:

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

There is a lot going on in the digital asset space but also nothing going on and that is the problem... Let me give you some thoughts... 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Beneath the head line: Crypto had a major, major VAR-shock test and NOTHING happened. Leverage liquidation was offset by overcollateralisation. No one was left holding the baby. No firm went under. The Fed didn't need to step in. Defi didn't break and carried on near normal

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Remember that as the market cap of BTC rises, it forces more institutions into it. The more institutions that adopt it, the more the others have to and the harder it is for regulators to stop it. A perfect reflexive loop with the little guy front running it all. Bravo everyone!

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

Just a reminder - You cant use daily or weekly charts if your time horizon is years. You're either in this for network adoption over time or you are a trader. I am not a trader in crypto. I can't care less about 50% swings in a 70 vol asset.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

I must admit that investing in crypto is not easy. Its not about price volatility, which is expected; its on one hand the people attack who you for not worshipping their favourite project, but also mean-revertionists doubting you, and sceptics hating you. Exhausting but amusing.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

You may hate it, fight it, complain about it, make chippy comments about it. But it won't make a single piece of difference. Change is upon us. Embrace change. Don't fight it. In change lies all our future.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Job done. I think I did ok ;-) (I wasn't going to let you all down). Time for a glass of wine...

@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

I'm presenting the case for crypto to 3,000 institutional clients and staff of a global investment bank this afternoon. Trying to do my part...and grateful for the opportunity. Wish me luck!

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Listening to Gensler and it's clear he is laying down the hardest case he can for regulation of digital assets. But my view is that he will likely get his way that most are going to be classified as securities but with a wholesale change to what that means 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

The Bitcoin long term log chart looks pretty luscious. Who knows if the wedge breaks on first attempt but a consolidation pattern of this magnitude usually leads to a very, very powerful upside move. #BTC

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

Macro Views: As Ive talked a lot about, I think we are going into a pretty nasty recession (or are in one). Lay offs are coming as are house price falls. Demand destruction is everywhere due to the largest monetary tightening in history. 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

Don’t. You have zero edge in trading CNN/Fox/CNBC rumor headlines, which are a direct path to losing money. This is a public service announcement. Thanks.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

BTC now vs 2017...

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

No idea if BTC breaks out on first attempt or corrects again first but this is one hell of a pattern.... the on chain analysis also suggests a breakout, along with S2F.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

As I said in my recent Real Vision Daily briefing, some people are saying what the next big macro play? when shall we go long/short of bonds? the $? what's next for oil? Everyone is missing the point. Crypto is THE biggest macro trade of all time. Bar none. Crypto IS macro.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

I used to be part of the "world is going to shit and is just just a matter of time until..." until I realized it was just an alluring meme. The world is always going to shit and it is always getting better too. Waiting for the world to end is not a profitable strategy. 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

I’m struggling to see how we are going to avoid a global recession. The odds are rising every day. Not a certainty yet but close.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Why no laser eyes? I love the solidarity but I think any celebration or hubris is dangerous. Heads down and focus on the really big picture and not a $100k milestone. Filter out all noise and laser concentrate on what matters - adoption, off exchange, new investment vehicles etc

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

4 months

Remember: No leverage No FOMO Top 3 to 5 assets as main bag Self-custody (or multi-sig) with good wallet hygiene Only trade a small Degen bag <10% HODL over a longer time horizon Zoom out and remove the noise Expect 35% pullbacks frequently BTFD if you can #DFTU

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Bitcoin is nearly as oversold as it was in March 2020...

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

People have asked for books that influenced me on my macro thinking (not investing books mainly) Guns, Germs and Steel Sapiens Homo Deus The 4th Turning The Great Rupture The Crisis of Global Capitalism Life Span The Second Machine Age The Price of Tomorrow Lords of Finance

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

To be brutally honest, I stare at the chart of ETH/BTC and I see an enormous rounded bottom with potentially huge breakout just above....

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Bloody hell, I must be doing at least something right or adding a small amount of value...I seem to have hit 300,000 twitter followers. Obviously, 200,000 are bots, but still... Thank you everyone for making this my home. Its where I love to hang out, throw out ideas & meet ppl

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

October is the month stock market crashes - It is also the month that kills bear markets... Let's dig in... 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

Danger! : Im going to add a basket of 10 alts to my BTC and ETH bets, using this dip. Shill me your coin but with a quality paragraph WHY I should look at it. My knowledge base is low, so treat me like the idiot I am (nicely) Maxi aggressive "shitcoin" posts = insta bloc Go.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

Remember December 2018? This is exactly what it felt like. Rising rates, oil at the highs, rising dollar, rising inflation, QT and markets breaking everywhere. Then the economy rolled over…

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

I can sense that people are looking for a certain future for markets but the truth is that there are no gurus. No one knows. We all do our best to use our experience and figure out the beautiful puzzle and put odds in our favour best we can

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

After the weekend FUD fest and shit fighting, let's get back to the important stuff. BTFD. BTC is forming a wedge most likely...perfectly normal correction and healthy.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

No one had open ended losses. The system didn't break. It offered zero systemic risk to the broader financial world. Speculators lost money and that is it.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

The significance of the worlds greatest and most respected money manager - Stan Druckenmiller saying just now that he is long bitcoin can not be overstated. That has removed every obstacle for any hedge fund or endowment to invest... #Bitcoin

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Raoul Pal

2 years

For the Bitcoin Maxi’s: when ETH launched it was at 0.0007BTC. 6 years later, it is at 0.07. That is 100x vs BTC over the period you called it a shit coin. The whole Pfeffer argument of utility value goes to zero has been proven wrong due to network effects Facts matter. 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

1 year

While everyone is speculating on Twitter’s blue tick, Elon has taken private one of the largest data sources on earth to train AI on human interactions and thoughts. And you thought Google capture was clever/invasive. In AI, he who has the largest proprietary data sets wins.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

If I had my investment life all over again, I would just have invested in anything that follows Metcalfe’s Law. I think it is a secular shift via technology and beats even old school high vol/ long time-horizon macro in accumulating super normal returns over time.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

So, as its Saturday night, I want to ask BTC twitter a question: You are generally libertainarians in philosophy right? And I am the Founder of a media platform, that encourage free speech, but if I book someone who is not a Bitcoiner, you are in outrage. Huh? WTF people.

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Raoul Pal

2 years

So many chippy comments that I only own about 1 BTC! I am massively underweight BTC because I think its price appreciates less over time than ETH and some others. It is not a comment about me being negative BTC. Also, no, I’ve not sold any of my crypto bags to newbie bag holders

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

@JParhamJr Its not so complicated. You buy, you HODL, you add on dips and you dont use leverage.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

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Raoul Pal

2 years

Bitcoin IS correlated with risk in the short term, of course it does, it's an asset and they all do! It is subject to short-term liquidity and behaviour, but its long-term trend is EXPONENTIAL, unlike most other risk assets. I don't know why people struggle with this... #NOISE .

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Raoul Pal

4 months

If you care whether the BTC ETF is priced in or not, your time horizon is too short. It is all noise in the grand scheme of what lies ahead. Don't fuck This Up.

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Raoul Pal

4 years

Bitcoin is eating the world... It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months. You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC

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Raoul Pal

3 years

Issuing the BTC futures ETF is a good step but its basically handing hedge funds a massive arbitrage opportunity as the futures will trade at a large premium in bull phases and they get to capture those returns. 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

How to trade geopolitical events (key tips from my 32 year career)… A thread:

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

4 years

The Dollar Wrecking Ball: I hear the narratives that the Fed is printing money...Brrr... and that is going to cause a dollar collapse. I worry that this narrative is very wrong. My strongly held view is that the dollar is the pinnacle of all the macro issues we face. 1/

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Raoul Pal

2 years

The ETH/BTC chart is in my opinion the most important chart in digital asset markets right now. A break higher will lead to more risk seeking into year end. BTC will go higher too.

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Raoul Pal

4 years

I can not express how bullish I am on bitcoin. We are at risk of losing the entire system right now. I know they will find a way to save it but all trust is lost. Gold guys/girls - you’ll be fine too. It’s just that $BTC has bigger upside, by far but is riskier than gold

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Raoul Pal

3 years

ETH is up 126% YTD. Its Feb 3rd, FFS! I still expect it to hit $20k by around the turn of the year. The entire DA space is going to consume the performance of everything else, with BTC as the flag carrier as The Big Asset. It is up 30% YTD hugely beating every other major asset

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

I think we can firmly take “they’ll ban it!” FUD off the table.

@BTC_Archive

Bitcoin Archive

3 years

💥HUGE: U.S. Banking regulators looking into how banks can custody #Bitcoin , use it for collateral and balance sheet holdings. - FDIC CHAIRMAN

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Raoul Pal

3 years

I, for one, would like to thank @100trillionUSD for everything he has done for us all. He, almost above all, gave us the anchor and the framework around to which take risk and understand the power of BTC, for which all of us owe him a HUGE debt of gratitude. Bravo my friend!

@100trillionUSD

PlanB

@100trillionUSD

3 years

BREAKING ... I quit my job (PlanA) and start focusing on #bitcoin (PlanB) full time as of March 1st! 😎

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Raoul Pal

3 years

Rule of thumb: When profits comes too easily, they tend to go too easily too...it takes time and a decent level of discomfort for sticky profits...

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Raoul Pal

3 years

To be fair, my flippant comments about the BTC conference being a bit cringe was a reflection of the media coverage of the more extreme aspects but the truth is the speakers and many of the attendees are some of the smartest, most interesting forward thinkers Ive ever known.

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Raoul Pal

3 years

Things are happening so fast, and with such quantum leaps in NFT world, that I am struggling to get to grips with it, let alone all of the projects and breakthroughs. 1/

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Raoul Pal

24 days

While everyone is worried about 3.5% inflation, the real issue is the ongoing 8% per annum debasement of currency, on top of inflation. Your hurdle rate to break even is around 12%, which is the 10-year average returns of the S&P 500...just to keep your purchasing power.

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Raoul Pal

2 years

BTC Twitter still stuck in 2015 ETH wars, arguing about who is the harder money, when ETH is talking about Web 3 and community, not money. Sigh. All of this can coexist happily and have a symbiotic relationship. It is not Highlander "There can only be one". One what?

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Raoul Pal

3 years

There were no daisy chains of collateral losses. There was no collateral pressure. Stablecoins remained stable. A few exchanges went down for an hour or two. No exchange big losses occurred, no need to mutualise losses either. No protocol failed. No firms needed rapid funding.

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Raoul Pal

2 years

Wow, everyone has gotten super bearish on everything in digital assets I do think crimped excess disposable income due to inflation is partially to blame. The marginal retail buyer is more… marginal 1/

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

To be honest and transparent, so I don't pretend I'm good - a whole bunch of my alts are way below ATH's. I dont have much of them but it's a drag on total performance. I switched some but Im "hoping" that some play catch up. I dont pretend to get it right always.

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Raoul Pal

1 year

If its any consolation, myself and many others went through something very similar to FTX back in 2011. MF Global, one of the largest futures brokerages in the world, run by "superstar" ex-Goldman CEO, Jon Corzine collapsed in a very similar manner to FTX.. 1/

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Raoul Pal

2 years

@elonmusk the way to get Twitter to work is to create a token system. People who add value to the network get tokens like Reddit and community this decides accreditation. The token economy is probably worth 10x the equity value as it creates a tangible asset of community/brand.

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Raoul Pal

3 years

Enjoy stirring up twitter tonight.. “bitcoin only” people are basically Peter Schiff gold bugs. Hilarious. You become what you hate...much like we all become our parents, no matter how much we rebel. Closed mind or open mind. You choose.

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Raoul Pal

8 months

Postcards from the Death of the American Dream.. (warning, these are not comfortable viewing) Since 1965 (everyones working memory) wages have not risen in real terms. Its an endless hamster wheel of despair...

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Raoul Pal

5 years

A Currency Crisis? When the long-term charts all start pointing to a single event risk, I pay attention. When those charts are at the KEY level, I focus. And when they break, it is time for action... Something really BIG is going on...

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Raoul Pal

3 years

Just because perspective is useful for everyone... this is ETH 2021 vs BTC 2017

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Raoul Pal

3 years

Every cynic is dunking on Cathie Wood and Ark. I happen to think she has nailed every major theme that will matter for the next 10 years. I re-thought my entire macro framework this month in GMI for first time in 20 years. I’m a buyer of Ark in weakness....and many other things.

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Raoul Pal

3 years

How to annoy 20% of Twitter: Ive just bought 2 new Teslas. Once you go electric, you never go back (except for classics - I have Iggy Pops' old Porsche and an old Safari set up Land Rover ). Had an electric car for 6 years, no comparison to regular cars. gn.

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Raoul Pal

3 years

The ETH 2021 vs BTC 2017 parallel continues its weird wizardry...

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Raoul Pal

3 years

The next 10 years is going to have the fastest, great technology change in all human history. The Exponential Age. We will all feel left behind, but we have to trust in this younger generation of people under 40 to lead the way and show us new ways. We need to be led.

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Raoul Pal

3 years

It will have booms and busts. Projects will fail and some will be worth hundreds of billions. But everything has changed. Keep your mind open.

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Raoul Pal

3 years

This is my view.. The ETF is the next rocket fuel for this market. The Wall of Money keeps coming but it takes time for everyone to get internal approvals. I have so many conversations helping hedge funds, Family Offices and Asset Managers each week. All happening and more...

@TheCryptoLark

Lark Davis

3 years

This #bitcoin ranging consolidation period is the "boring" prelude to the BTC ETF approval pump mania phase.

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Raoul Pal

2 years

If the dollar keeps going, it's going to really break things. It has literally done parabolic...

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Raoul Pal

2 years

However tempting it is, I'm going to refrain from hot takes on this terrible war until I can form thoughtful, articulated, clear opinions of what it means and the knock on effects, with less conjecture and more knowledge, and deeper reflection. i.e. I don't know yet.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

If you care about ETH, you might want to watch this clip from today. I probably gave away too much of my thinking… oh well. Enjoy the weekend all!

@RealVision

Real Vision

3 years

. @RaoulGMI discusses the latest edition of Global Macro Investors & a section called "The Greatest Trade." What is it? Watch 👇

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Raoul Pal

3 years

Its all a bit weird to me how people can be so ludicrously triggered by investments - Bitcoin, $ARK, $TSLA, digital assets, NFT's, ESG, etc It's not like people are killing puppies, they are just investing in a different vision of where the world is going and that is a market...

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Raoul Pal

3 years

Enjoy the ride...this is what you get in a 80 vol asset class with exponential returns! BTFD works in the end but you cant time everything to perfection. I added last week and will add when I get more cash in! gn and gl

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

4 years

The Dollar Standard: The US Economy fell from 40% of World GDP in 1960 to just 25% today. However, 79.5% of all world trade is conducted in US dollars. 84% of all non-domestic debt globally is US Dollar debt. Around $100trn of global debts are denominated in US Dollars.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

This is huge news. This is the largest asset management firm on earth. 2021 is setting up to be a year of severe supply shortages vs. demand in Bitcoin, and upside price dislocations. #Bitcoin

@APompliano

Pomp 🌪

3 years

Wow. BlackRock CIO of Fixed Income Rick Rieder talking about Bitcoin replacing gold on CNBC this morning.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

5 months

Once you play around in the $SOL ecosystem, it feels super fast, slick, inviting and easy for the user. The best comparison is SOL is Apple and ETH is Android. Both win. Huge.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

I know, I know, its sounds like a tired, biased take but if r/WSB's is banned and are truly "against the system" then crypto is the place they cant get banned and achieves the same goals but on a bigger level... money itself and the heart of Wall St.

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

I told you this was coming ... #ADA #Cardano

@IOHK_Charles

Charles Hoskinson

3 years

Had so much fun on @RealVision I think the interview is coming out next week. Thanks guys!

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

3 years

It's Jan 6th and ETH is up 55% YTD.... it's going a lot, lot further...

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@RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

2 years

Heart warming moment - jump in a taxi in London, the guy shouts “your RAOUL!”, tells me buying ETH after watching RV videos changed his life and he is a HODL’er and DCA’er with a 5 year view and still still up huge. #feelingblessed

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