Scott Minerd @ScottMinerd Twitter profile

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Crypto will continue to be volatile, but as a paradigm it is the future.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Crypto investors be warned: be prepared for a volatile holiday weekend.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

The #Fed has made it clear that it will not tolerate prudent and responsible investing.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

1 year

With great sadness, we mourn the passing of Scott Minerd, our leader, colleague, and friend.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

A technician's rule to remember with Bitcoin: "Every time a support level is tested it becomes weaker." That would mean support for $30,000 may soon fail.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

We are experiencing the end game of the great debt super cycle. As the private sector has become increasingly over-levered, the baton is being passed to the public sector where resources are so strained that the printing press has become the last resort.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

The #Fed is trying to do something impossible—not shock the market while being an aggressive #inflation fighter.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

The possibility of an attack on the global payments system is one of the biggest exogenous risks to the stability of the financial system.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Look for more declines in crypto as Bitcoin breaks through support. Next likely support level is $20,000.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

After four consecutive monthly declines, the leading economic indicators signal that #recession is on the way. You’ve been warned.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Fed minutes much more hawkish than I'd expected. #Fed seems intent on raising rates and shrinking the balance sheet simultaneously. Clearly the recipe for a financial accident.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Bitcoin's parabolic rise is unsustainable in the near term. Vulnerable to a setback. The target technical upside of $35,000 has been exceeded. Time to take some money off the table.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Since 1960, P/Es have trended lower when #inflation is higher. With YoY core PCE now at 4.6% and S&P500 trading at ~19x, we should see stocks fall another 20% by mid-October…if historical seasonals mean anything.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Stocks have clearly topped the recent uptrend. Now we find out if this is 1930 all over again.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Financial crisis returns as UK #Gilts collapse to preintervention levels of last week, putting pressure on US rates as risk rises for global market turmoil and increasing the probability of a coordinated global policy response.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

More likely explanation is that stock appreciation is explained by the Marshallian K, where liquidity exceeds nominal economic growth and spills over into asset bubbles just like in the Internet bubble, the housing bubble, and the corporate debt bubble. More bubbles to come.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

If my scenario is correct, which is that the weakening economy is going to catch the #Fed off guard, we're sitting at the peak or close to the peak in long-term rates. Our internal models have flipped to favoring long #bonds over owning #stocks .

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

There are 2 possible explanations for divergence between stock prices and the real economy. First is the economy will rebound much faster than many expect. This looks highly unlikely as it could take at least four years for economic activity to return to levels seen in Q4.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

While the numbers of new #coronavirus cases and deaths show no sign of abatement, the #economy faces rising business failures and debt defaults, and prices for autos and rents fall, clearly the darkest days of the current crisis are still ahead.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Crypto has proven not to be a diversifying asset class, or a safe haven. It is a high beta play on risk.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

The worst still lies ahead for risk assets in market correction.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Crypto has proven to be Tulipmania. As prices rise, tulip bulbs and #crypto currencies multiply until supply swamps demand at previous market clearing prices.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Current market has delivered perhaps the greatest investing opportunity of a generation: #Bonds of good companies trading in the 80s. Downside is they pay off at par, upside is they hand over the keys.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Stocks down, credit spreads widening, Treasurys rallying, commodities soft or falling. Consumer sentiment lowest since February 2021. Starting to feel like market participants are losing faith in growth expectations. May be time to prepare for a risk-off summer.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

This is not a buy-the-dip market. It is a don’t-catch-a-falling-knife market.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

The collapse of crypto is the canary in the coal mine. Crypto told us ahead of time that #stocks were going to be in trouble. And until we find a bottom here in crypto, we're not going to get a bottom in anything else.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Bottom fishing is still the most expensive sport in the world.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

To summarize Fed Chair Powell in a simple statement: "2.2% inflation will not be high enough! And 3.5% unemployment will not be low enough!"

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Why am I so sanguine about #inflation ? 3 words: Demographics, debt, and technology. Our shrinking workforce, slowing birthrate, rising debt loads, and adoption of technology that improves economic productivity (which increased during the pandemic) are all deflationary.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

It will be virtually impossible for Powell to walk this position back if inflation were to spike for an extended period. He definitely put a stake in the ground.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Most Americans were not prepared to weather this economic storm, and the damage that is being done to household balance sheets, let alone the damage to their confidence, is going to have long-term negative repercussions on consumption.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Without fiscal stimulus, personal income will fall, layoffs will mount, consumers will pull back on spending, and more small businesses will fail.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

I see a number of trouble spots in the markets. Since we haven’t seen capitulation yet in the markets, it would be premature to step in and buy aggressively at current levels, whether it is stocks or credit assets.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

How do we know when we have not reached the bottom? When the talking heads on CNBC are buying.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

A picture is worth a thousand words. This photo of French President Emmanuel Macron, taken during his 2-hour phone call with Putin, says it all.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

5 years

The selloff in GE is not an isolated event. More investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

With the 30-year Treasury bond at 1.75%, expect it to return to 1.40%. As for the 10-year note, if it goes below 1.40% it is likely to head to 1.20%.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Three dovish #Fed signals today: Saying that #economic activity is slowing, that the lagged effects of prior big hikes are yet to be felt, and that #fedfunds is now at the neutral rate. All suggest that a more data dependent stance is now in place.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Our central bank will never be able to get back to normal. The #Fed ’s balance sheet has expanded from $4.5 trillion to $6.6 trillion in just about a month, and it is likely on its way to over $9 trillion soon.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Federal Reserve corporate bond purchase activity appears to be on the rise. Soon we will test how committed the #Fed is to keeping risk-asset prices strong. Without stimulus tailwind, success will be costly. 2850 could be in the cards for the S&P 500.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Our model of 10-year Treasury yields suggests that while yields may drift up from here, there is still more downside.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Break in uptrend signals new decline in S&P 500 to 2000 or lower.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

The last time the #bond market reached these stress levels of illiquidity and volatility, the #Fed cut rates.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Pullback in risk assets is following seasonal script. Expect more downside going into October. Technicals support further declines.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

There is no doubt that we are in the “everything bubble.” Pick your asset class and prices are up. But the heavily indebted corporate sector is vulnerable if the #economy begins to slow.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

The key message in Powell’s post-meeting press conference was that this tightening cycle will not look like the last one. Buckle up!

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

As the equity market reaches new highs, the divergence in the advance-decline line suggests we may be approaching a top. In the past, such divergence has indicated the market is vulnerable to a sell-off. Seasonals suggest caution.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

The quickest timetable for the #Fed : Start talking about talking about #tapering at Aug #FOMC ; start talking about it in Sept; announce it in Dec; start tapering 2Q22; finish tapering 2Q23; first rate hike 2Q24. But this is the quickest it could come, it will likely take longer.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

So much for the taper tantrum.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

The market is being too aggressive on timing of tapering (Q4 2021) and first rate hike (Q1 2023). Under the new framework, the first rate hike could be pushed back to 2025.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

The US Govt is able to sustain this #economy using extreme measures, but it has to come to the table like a distressed investor. Demand good collateral and warrants for the upside once this crisis passes.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Reminder: The US has never had #inflation come down by more than two percentage points in a year without a #recession .

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Expectations are mounting for a September #Fed announcement of tapering plans, but I don’t see that happening. The Delta variant is having a significant impact on consumer behavior and slowing the forward progress of the economy.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

6 years

If there were ever a moment to harvest gains and reduce risk, it is August 2018. And if it turns out not to be the moment, I don’t think you are giving up much upside.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

This is not the death of #crypto just as the collapse of Tulipmania was not the end of tulip bulbs!

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Given the precipitous decline in #Treasury yields and shorter maturities at new lows, the message is clear: A 2-year note trading near 10bp signals that the market believes the policy rate is stuck at zero, and the risk is that Treasury rates will soon be negative.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Investors can throw out projecting an end of fed fund rate increases based upon #inflation , unemployment, or other macroeconomic factors. The end of #Fed tightening will come when something breaks, and from where I sit cracks are forming.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Over the last 25 years, September has failed to beat NFP consensus 76% of the time, the worst downside surprise track record for any month. If we come in below consensus of 250k (could possibly be negative), the Fed Pivot trade could go into overdrive.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

It's time to acknowledge the obvious: #COVID19 is accelerating out of control. The worst is yet to come.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

The #Fed has joined into the everything trade.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

#Capitalism as we know it is shifting in the United States. Corporate America is going to become addicted to the #Fed providing support.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

1 year

Today's #PMI release places US #manufacturing firmly in #recession territory. Readings below 48.5 historically indicate contraction in manufacturing activity.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Powell made it clear today we shouldn’t expect action earlier than already indicated. He said it took 7 years after the GFC before the Fed tightened, telegraphing that existing guidance may be too hawkish.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Stock market momentum is flagging. The economic backdrop makes stocks vulnerable to a late summer or autumn swoon.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Emerging markets could be the next domino to fall, and we are keeping an extremely close eye there. As a percentage of #GDP , governments and corporations in the emerging markets have significantly more debt today than they did during the Asian crisis.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Now that #JPM has called for a 75 bps hike, the @WSJ has reported it, and the swap market is pricing it in, the #Fed has little choice but to follow through or look like they are behind the curve. This may even put 100 bps on the table.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

As history demonstrates, the beginning of war often leads to short-term market volatility but quickly provides phenomenal buying opportunities. Look to use current market dislocation to add to risk position in select credit securities and cheap stocks.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

All risk assets are just a no-go. You don't want a lot of low-quality #credit at this point. You don't want #stocks . You want to really stay in the higher end of the credit spectrum.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

The surge in unemployment claims by almost 10% week-over-week sends a disturbing signal. Economic momentum is slowing as claims rise.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Stocks have been priced for perfection, but things remain far from perfect.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

The support to corporate America during this period of economic shutdown risks the creation of a new moral obligation for the U.S. government, like the GSEs. In this cycle, it is the investment-grade bond market that is too big to fail.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Clearly, the path of least resistance is for lower rates.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Today’s bond sell-off—sparked by taper comments in the #FOMC minutes—is all the evidence the #Fed needs to not even think about thinking about tapering.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

The 20s/30s curve inverted for the first time since 2009 and the forward curve is also flat. Based on data from the last three business cycles, that level has historically preceded recessions by an average of 28 months.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

As the data continues to worsen, it would suggest that we’re going to get to a place worse than the financial crisis (3/27/20 @CNBC ).

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Rich countries can drop helicopter money with relatively little consequence, but emerging market monetary and fiscal solutions will further weaken their currencies, making access to dollars even harder.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

We have seen no evidence that the current spike in #inflation is a secular rise in prices. And we have seen no evidence that the great #bond bull market that started over 30 years ago is over.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Technical analysis indicates the 10-year note yield could soon touch 25bp.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Connecting current equity market valuations, inflation, the macro and monetary backdrop, and weak seasonals suggests a 20% drop in stocks by mid-October. @ScottWapnerCNBC .

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Our sincerest condolences to our friends at Jefferies Group during this season of tragedy and loss.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

The recent sell-off, which is a seasonal occurrence, is a buying opportunity.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Markets seem to be priced for a V-shaped recovery, which incoming data suggest is unlikely to occur. The bond markets will not tolerate vague policy guidance for long, and previous tantrums may be a taste of what is to come.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

High frequency data, like retail sales, show the economy is losing momentum if not weakening.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Where did all the bond bears go?

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

The Fed, utilizing bond buying and forward rate guidance, will continue to exert downward pressure on rates. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury could fall to 0.25% or lower very soon, and possibly go negative in the intermediate term.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Bleak retail sales may spell negative consumption expenditures and #GDP contraction in the 2nd quarter, increasing the probability that the US economy is already in #recession .

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Today’s #CPI is further evidence that the inflation spike we're seeing is likely to prove transitory. The main culprits once again were used/rental cars, airfares, and hotels: they accounted for 1/2 the 74 bp MOM increase despite being just 6% of core CPI.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

The #Fed is going to have a hard time explaining to people that we can go down this interest rate path and not find ourselves in a #recession or some kind of financial accident. I think it's inevitable.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

The bond market has had difficulty sustaining rates at or near the Fed’s neutral rate projection, and we see no reason to expect a different result this time. The selloff has largely run its course.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Even if the sharp increase in #coronavirus cases doesn’t turn into a pandemic, the impact of all this on corporate profits and free cash flow could be dramatic. The effect on #oil and #energy prices could be even more extreme.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

After suffering through a brutal economic and market storm since March, we are experiencing what seems like a break in the weather. Do not be mistaken. The relative calm we feel right now isn’t the end of the storm, it is just the eye.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

We are in the value zone, therefore we are starting to selectively look at picking up some value securities. But markets often overshoot, and just because things are cheap doesn’t mean they can’t get cheaper.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

3 years

Everybody talks about #crypto being a diversifying asset like gold, but the price behavior has reflected that it’s a risk-on asset. Since stock momentum has faded, crypto has come under pressure and this could be the canary in the coal mine for risk assets

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

6 years

A bear market may not begin tomorrow, but abundant late-cycle signals and the degree of rate increases still to come tells me that the risk-reward of owning equities is less and less favorable.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

I remain bullish on bonds. The market has to adjust for increased supply, but the #Fed is supporting the market and ultimately the #economy will disappoint.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

With stocks vulnerable to further declines, traditional private equity is the worst place to be. Investors should look to #bonds of otherwise good companies issued at much lower rates that have traded down.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

2 years

Income-oriented investors—pensions, insurance cos, people with IRAs—should look through the noise and headlines and see that corporate bond yields are at a good entry point.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

9 years

I agree with @mikeshinoda of @linkinpark on #MIGlobal panel on disruption: it's about innovation and authenticity.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

Businesses and households have been carrying larger debt loads and smaller cash reserves, confident that policymakers will restrain the severity of the consequences created by any shock to the economy. Now that bill is coming due.

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Scott Minerd

@ScottMinerd

4 years

The market is waking up to not just viral contagion from #coronavirus , but also to financial and geopolitical contagion, and to the knock-on effect to corporate earnings and cash flows once the world enters a #recession which now appears to be inevitable.

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