Matthew Savill @MTSavill Twitter profile

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

It is entirely legitimate for Ukraine to strike oil or gas facilities in Russia if they are being used to advance military objectives: they can be categorised as 'dual-use facilities'. However, each facility has to be assessed on its own merits. 🧵

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

Things RUSI is unlikely to research: • Beards in the Army Things RUSI thinks are important for the Army: • Combat logistics/sustainment • Concentrating mass/firepower • Countering drones • Electronic warfare • Ground-based air defence • Urban warfare Watch this space!

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

25 days

Deeply frustrating that some pieces highlighting the threat from Iran skip past the fact that the JCPOA was probably the only bit of Western policy with significant impact, until it was trashed without replacement by the previous US administration.

Iran wants to bully the world and get a nuclear bomb. We must resist

Meeting the Iranian threat will require unity with our allies and a willingness to crush extremism at home

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

Interesting to see the direct contrast with German squeamishness about linking the supply of weapons to effect: this statement is almost boastful about UK weapons being used to 'lay waste to nearly 30% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet'.

UK to supply more than 10,000 drones to Ukraine

The announcement was made today by Defence Secretary Grant Shapps as he met President Zelenskyy in Kyiv

www.gov.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

Some thought on today's report of a failed Trident missile test. It's important to open by saying, we have very few details, so need to exercise some caution on conclusions.🧵

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

A reminder that when calculating the 'NATO 2%' figure the MOD includes the cost of operations, but when funded by the Treasury, these are not part of the Defence *budget*. The budget 'Red Book' sets the latter, so be cautious of calculations that conflate the two.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

I always enjoy listening to @campbellclaret and @RoryStewartUK and while the thrust of their scepticism on defence spending is about right, I did rather twitch a few times at some of the generalisations or errors in here. 🧵

The Rest Is Politics

@RestIsPolitics

9 days

The video version of this week's main podcast episode is now available to watch! Join Rory and Alastair in this week's episode as they delve into these pressing current issues: 👉 Humza Yousaf's resignation from the SNP 👉 Defection in politics 👉 How much each country spends…

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

26 days

It's approximately 15 hours after UK personnel used force in defence of Israel (presumably after an update to UK Rules of Engagement) and it's a little bit odd that the only thing we have is a 50-second clip from the PM with almost no detail, long after everyone else.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

13 days

The problem with the 2/2.5% graph (on its own) is that is fails to include the state of the economy. Occasionally, it would be useful to remind ourselves of a real-terms comparison (like this, from @commonslibrary ).

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

The original War Book was designed for full-scale nuclear war, and as pointed out in the work of Peter Hennessy or @JulieAMcDowall a lot of it was unrealistic, bordering on futile. Some might therefore question @kpd_musing ’s concern at the lack of a modern equivalent. However…

Deborah Haynes

@haynesdeborah

1 month

EXCLUSIVE: The government has no national plan for the defence of the UK or the mobilisation of its people and industry in a war despite renewed threats of conflict, @SkyNews has learnt. 🧵/1

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

UK warheads are UK-designed and manufactured, but the missiles themselves come from a pooled stockpile in the US. Continued US successful testing therefore gives some confidence in the overall reliability of the Trident missile.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

And that’s a wrap! NATO at 75 discussions hosted by @UKNATO , organised by @RUSIEurope and @EdArnold_RUSI , with special appearance by @David_Cameron , who provided a masterclass in sticking to schedule (a certain unnamed panel chair is taking notes).

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

24 days

Good point by my colleague: the scale of the attack, including over 100 ballistic missiles, means this can’t be seen as purely theatre. It compares to the start of the invasion of Iraq (ave. 500 strikes a day), and only surpassed recently by Russia’s initial strikes in Ukraine.

RUSI

@RUSI_org

25 days

'Look at the size and scale of this latest attack – this was not a salutary move. It was designed to inflict real damage, but the fact that it didn’t is damaging to #Iran ’s credibility' says RUSI's Sidharth Kaushal to @guardian . Full article below ⬇️

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

Trident's record is pretty good. The US has claimed 191 successful test launches, and there have probably been a single figure number of failures. 95% success compares well with the reported 50% testing failure rate of the Russian Bulava missiles recently accepted into service.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

And the US Navy successfully launched a Trident missile as recently as September 2023.

U.S. Navy SSBN USS Louisiana Tests Trident II Ballistic Missile - Naval News

USS Louisiana (SSBN-743), an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine, test launched an unarmed life-extended Trident II (D5LE) missile.

www.navalnews.com

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

Finally, the third panel looked at society and resilience. There were some good examples from Finland ( @minna_alander ) and its drive for 'total defence' creating a strong willingness to fight to defend the country, plus good defences and preparedness for attack.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

Yes @campbellclaret and @RoryStewartUK it is important to have a serious debate on defence and foreign policy, particularly on building effective armed forces. It's great to see it raised here, but we need to ensure it is properly informed. Hopefully, @RUSI_org will do so!

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

A good demonstration of 🇫🇷 capability, but another example of how difficult it can be to degrade even an ‘irregular’ force if you don’t have extensive intelligence (and yes, ‘deterring’ the Houthis failed a long time ago).

EUNAVFOR ASPIDES

@EUNAVFORASPIDES

2 months

On March 21, an @EUNAVFORASPIDES French ship while providing close protection to merchant shipping in South Red Sea, intercepted and destroyed 3 ballistic missiles posing a direct threat to the FoN. @MarineNationale @FFEAU_ALINDIEN @EtatMajorFR #shieldingfreedomofnavigation

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

A missile test is 'just' one part of any DASO. That said, it's obviously pretty important for the deterrent. Given there was also (allegedly) a failed missile test during the last DASO in 2016, it's now been over a decade (2012) since the last successful Royal Navy Trident test.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

That means judging the expected military advantage from striking it, as against the consequences. If there are civilian workers on site, the risk of casualties has to be taken into account, as well as, for example, the impact of potentially hazardous substances being released.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

International Humanitarian Law is actually quite flexible, but it does require proper consideration of what is known and what risks can be assessed. In this case, Russian facilities being used to fuel or otherwise keep the Russian war machine running are within scope as targets.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

17 days

An interesting choice, but he has experience in No.10 as the Military Assistant to the PM, and did a stint as one of the Deputy National Security Advisers.

Deborah Haynes

@haynesdeborah

17 days

BREAKING: The UK's deputy military chief will become the next national security adviser – marking the first time a top military officer has held the position. General Gwyn Jenkins will replace Sir Tim Barrow, who has reportedly been lined up to become next UK ambassador to the US

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

A final reminder and caveat: in the absence of real and firm details, it's difficult to know how serious this is for the technical capabilities of Trident, and we may never know. So be wary of either apocalyptic doom or complete dismissal in the absence of good information.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

Worth considering this in conjunction with the panel at the recent RUSI Combat Air Conference discussing the Nordic air defence agreement (video to be available for members soon). The Nordic countries really are serious about implementing change.

Minna Ålander 🌻

@minna_alander

1 month

The Nordic countries all mean business. Even if Norway and Sweden had rather small forces, both are making a serious effort to scale up asap. Although, looking at you Denmark… 🇩🇰👀 (but Denmark is throwing huge sums into Ukraine support which cannot be forgotten)

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

But here, the focus is diplomatic and economic, not military. Defence is more modestly doing classic engagement and building relationships in the background. The Offshore Patrol vessels are perfect for this.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

Of course, neither of those adversaries was a nuclear-armed state, but it's worth reflecting that escalation dynamics have changed a lot since 2022. The Ukrainians are within their rights to strike infrastructure targets where they can link them to military activity.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

We don't know what happened here, nor have we confirmed the cause of the 2016 incident, so it's difficult to work out whether this alone causes a bigger problem or not, though it's embarrassing for the UK that the two most recent (known) failures were during Royal Navy DASOs.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

In spite of the failure, given the overall reliability of Trident (and the ambiguity over the cause) it would be a particularly bold and/or foolish adversary who decided to take a chance on nuclear deterrence based on two UK tests nearly eight years apart.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

…both Brexit and Covid demonstrated that the government ‘machine’ didn’t have as good an understanding of how the state and country actually functioned as it thought it did, particularly under pressure.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

And the presence of civilians doesn't prevent a strike outright, nor make such a facility a 'civilian target'. Conversely, the Ukrainians can't just attack infrastructure 'because the Russians do', nor freely attack *any* such facility. Retaliation is not a justification.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

Oh, one other thing: a laser is, by definition, directed energy, so can we consign 'laser directed energy' to the same black hole as 'PIN number'. It's a 'laser weapon'!

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

The argument that they shouldn't be attacked because of 'escalation' is a policy judgement, not a legal one. The recent history varies: Daesh's use of Syrian oilfields for oil smuggling to generate revenue meant they became targets for the Coalition (albeit with mixed success).

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

24 days

Professionals talk logistics (including medical support). So make this your morning reading today if you want to understand the evolving threat to battlefield sustainment (and some possible solutions).

RUSI

@RUSI_org

24 days

🚨🧵New RUSI report, ‘Assuring the Tactical Sustainment of Land Forces on the Modern Battlefield’ by @Jack_Watling and Si Horne is out now!

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

Then we get carried away with the 'carriers are obsolete argument' and Rory claims we can't protect them. Except, we can deploy with the necessary frigates, destroyers, air cover (and add in partners, though they aren't necessary). .

Carrier Strike Group sets sail for first operational deployment

HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales meet at sea for the first time following Exercise Strike Warrior 21

www.gov.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

25 days

We're going to have a lot to say on missile defence later this week, but before that it's worth reading this @RUSI_org paper. It examines a capable but relatively small (compared to the US) Western air force. Lots in here for others in NATO (including the @RoyalAirForce ).

Justin Bronk

@Justin_Br0nk

25 days

New report I’ve been working on is published today and is free to download on the RUSI website! Policy Recommendations for Optimising Dutch Air and Space Power: #RNLAF #Airpower

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

Essentially, it didn’t know where all the vulnerabilities and chokepoints were, and so plans had to be torn up and decisions made as improvisations. @SuzanneRaine2 has commented in the past on whether the risk register system needs updating.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

16 days

Particularly important to highlight people: both in-service conditions (accommodation, infrastructure, training, terms) and numbers (general recruitment, particular specialisms) need support *just as much* as pieces of equipment. Otherwise don't have capabilities we can use.

Chief of the Defence Staff 🇬🇧

@AdmTonyRadakin_

16 days

My article for today’s Daily Telegraph on the importance of munitions, people, technology…and national self-belief.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

Government IT is incredibly variable in quality and sophistication. I can't help but wonder how much of what it will bring in is *actually* AI, and how much will just be 'software that isn't more than a decade old'. I'm looking at you @DefenceHQ ...

The Telegraph

@Telegraph

2 months

🔴 Ageing Whitehall computer systems threaten to wreck hopes of AI revolution, says watchdog

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

Resilience is a product of the ability to both take a blow and respond *and* adapt in the face of events. Planning doesn’t guarantee success, but it provides a better foundation for adaptation than simply winging it, especially if it has promoted the buildup of resources.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

With apologies to my old MOD colleagues in the legal team if I have mangled or misremembered their wisdom on the fundamentals of IHL (not something to be done lightly!).

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

17 days

Important to see what this consists of. Defence *spending* under the NATO definition can include operations, so the money from the reserve for Ukraine is included. Beefing up the Armed Forces will involve increasing the defence *budget*, to fund personnel and the Equipment Plan.

Rt Hon James Heappey MP

@JSHeappey

17 days

All eyes on the PM’s press conference. This is ENORMOUS news and hugely needed in the MoD.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

Somehow, the government has to protect the operational security of the deterrent while reassuring as to its capability, to a domestic audience. One missile test doesn't tell us much: the overall state of the current fleet and replacement programme is probably more of an issue.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

There’s no one template, and a single ‘plan’ might not be the answer, but many of the lessons from elsewhere show the value of planning and *particularly* of preparing the public, industry and society, if not also involving them in the development of such plans.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

By the time HMS Dreadnought and its contemporaries start replacing the Vanguards in the 2030s, they could be a decade or more older than intended. That stress is already apparent in the system, as the observed length of deterrent patrols grows.

Ageing nuclear submarine breaks record for longest patrol

A British nuclear submarine has broken the record for the longest patrol at sea as safety fears grow over the Royal Navy’s ageing fleet. The Vanguard-class v

www.thetimes.co.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

Both @RobertClark87 and @haynesdeborah highlight the usefulness of military experience in dealing with the MOD. But it's not a pre-requisite; what matters is the ministerial ability to make *timely* decisions, use evidence, and interrogate the experts who work for you.

Robert Clark

@RobertClark87

2 months

Labour team equally inexperienced - at least @JohnnyMercerUK has relevant & credible military experience, which is still fundamental imo to properly grapple with the challenges facing the department, & UK national security more widely.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

But a Type 45 destroyer (which would defend a carrier) has just shot down a ballistic missile in the Red Sea, and the Chinese are building a carrier force as quickly as they can. Carriers are not yet obsolete!

Chinese supercarrier Fujian is about to enter sea trials. Only one nation can beat her

France and Britain will soon be outmatched as the dragon flexes its muscles

www.telegraph.co.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

19 days

The recent @RUSI_org paper from @Jack_Watling and Sidharth Kaushal is mentioned in here. Both they and @Justin_Br0nk would no doubt add that, if the the UK is to re-design its air defence system, it should do so based on a plausible threat.

Rt Hon James Heappey MP

@JSHeappey

19 days

Missile & drone attacks on Ukraine & Israel are stark reminder of complexity of air threat we now face. We need an integrated air & missiles defence system to protect UK homeland & allow our ships, planes & army air defence units to be on frontline.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

There's a degree of irony in that General Carter is quoted approvingly, yet was in charge of the Army and later the Armed Forces at a time when many of the problems emerged (including with the Ajax armoured vehicle they mention).

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

The @RFAHeadquarters isn’t sexy, but if it doesn’t sail, we can’t sustain @RoyalNavy operations at long distances from shoreside bases, or for any extended duration.

Deborah Haynes

@haynesdeborah

1 month

For the avoidance of doubt, this is really alarming and the result of years of underfunding. Royal Fleet Auxiliary sailors play a vital role in supporting the @RoyalNavy & UK resilience/defence. HMG neglects them at all of our peril…⚓️

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

Source? Doesn’t match up to the latest figures in (for example) @IISS_org ’s Military Balance. And what types are covered? In what state? I’m not putting much faith in Iranian air power. Yes, the RAF *is* spread thinly at the moment, but let’s start analysis from a solid position.

Chris Bolton

@CcibChris

1 month

Oh dear. UK defence policy……..

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

It's unlikely that it changes the calculations of countries like Russia or China. Nuclear powers watch other countries' tests, and this one was (as normal) announced in advance. They probably knew before today's story that no missile was successfully launched.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

I’m pretty sure this is from Book I of On War…

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

But looking back at Iraq in 2003, invading US-led forces refrained for hitting southern oil infrastructure where possible, to protect them for the post-invasion Iraqi state and try and avoid an environmental catastrophe. The fact they funded Saddam was a lesser consideration.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

A demonstration and shakedown operation (DASO) is about testing the full capability of a submarine and its crew. HMS Vanguard has been away from operations for around eight years, so its certification and return to availability is welcome for a small and stretched force.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

I think this might be the first operational use of Sea Ceptor by @RoyalNavy . Well done to @HMS_Richmond .

Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧

@DefenceHQ

2 months

Overnight, @HMS_Richmond and international allies fully repelled a Houthi drone attack. Read the full statement 👇

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

For the UK, the problem is probably more one of domestic reassurance and handling. The Dreadnought programme is late, and the Vanguards are being run for several years beyond their originally-planned service lives.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

@AmyWoolf8 @walberque @shashj @ArturKacprzyk @DuitsmanMS @VSamson_DC @brianweeden @coastal8049 @Marco_Langbroek @tomppa77 @JessicaWestPhD @tsr @aaronbateman22 Of course I'm going to add our own @JulianaSuess .

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

The larger deployments are then less frequent, but about occasional surges in effort to keep investment in those relationships 'topped up'

UK Carrier Strike Group to visit Japan in 2025

The UK’s Carrier Strike Group will visit Japan as part of the flagship 2025 Indo-Pacific deployment, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has announced today

www.gov.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

This puts pressure on both crews (going months without contact either with the outside world or their families) and the submarines (which must remain undetected for every second of each patrol).

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

To credit the MOD with something, tucked away in chapter 8 of the updated Defence Command Paper are references to what would be a necessary start.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

24 days

@haynesdeborah @ForcesNews @RoyalAirForce The air policing mission essentially has a rota. So the question is whether the Typhoons were on a ‘hot’ week or not. If the former, it’s a problem. If the latter, it’s a logical choice as they were close and ready for air to air missions. We should also watch how long they stay.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

They are right to criticise the slow buildup of the F-35 force, which is probably not getting enough flight time (and I know there is time spent in simulators, but they aren't a substitute for the real thing).

Written questions and answers - Written questions, answers and statements - UK Parliament

Information from UK Parliament on written questions & answers, written statements and daily reports.

questions-statements.parliament.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

If we wanted to be critical, it would be to point out one such deployments suck up the vast majority of the Navy's deployable forces; relies upon an aging support ship; and the airborne early-warning radar has disappointed.

UK Royal Navy reviewing specifications for struggling Crowsnest ...

The UK Royal Navy is reviewing its required capabilities for the Crowsnest airborne early warning and control system, after experiencing early shortcomings with the technology.

www.flightglobal.com

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

@salisbot It weights the truly great air combat towards the earlier episodes, and the fact that it tries to be faithful to history means that a *lot* of people die and it’s hard to stick with characters. But overall, it’s a strong and emotional story.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

@balmer_tim This started about nine years ago. Pensions are allowed under the NATO criteria, but it isn't uniformly included across the Alliance, and in this case it was largely to allow the UK to say it would meet the 2% target.

Osborne's Summer Surprise for Defence: Guaranteed Real-Terms Spending Increases

The government has unexpectedly announced that the Ministry of Defence will receive a real-terms increase in its budget

www.rusi.org

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

The Written Ministerial Statement from today is - unsurprisingly - not giving much away. It could be read as suggesting something unusual in the test circumstances or procedures contributed to the failure, but even that is speculation.

Written statements - Written questions, answers and statements - UK Parliament

Information from UK Parliament on written questions & answers, written statements and daily reports.

questions-statements.parliament.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

The latest evolution in drone warfare in Ukraine. But based on the latest @WarOnTheRocks podcast with @KofmanMichael and @RALee85 , and @RUSI_org research by @Jack_Watling and @Justin_Br0nk the adaptation period at the moment is a few months. ‘Unstoppable’ may be optimistic.

Joe Barnes

@Barnes_Joe

1 month

Ukraine developing ‘unstoppable’ AI-powered attack drone with Western backing

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

Given the rhetoric about being in a ‘pre-war’ period, it’s not unreasonable to ask if those vulnerabilities have now been considered in the light of an actual deliberate threat, acting with malice, rather than an unthinking virus.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

I’ve finally seen Dune: Part Two. It was excellent, but more importantly I now have a slim chance of understanding my team’s memes and enjoying some brief popular culture relevance. Maybe RUSI should do more work on the utility of tactical nuclear weapons… #DunePartTwo

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

16 days

As I said elsewhere yesterday, you need to look at what qualifies as defence spending, and how the baseline has been created. The figure below would allow the MOD to balance the *current* equipment plan, and give a bit of room for changes to that and/or investment in personnel.

Ben Zaranko

@BenZaranko

16 days

To get the £75 billion number, the government has assumed a baseline with spending frozen in cash terms and then added up all of the differences. If you instead assume a baseline of spending frozen as a % GDP, it's an extra £20 billion over 6 years. Details here.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

@pinstripedline I am mildly bothered that people - including in government - think SIA means 'security and intelligence agencies', when it's Single Intelligence Account...

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

The question here is whether the 148 Challenger 3 tanks that the MOD is aiming to have, as upgrades from Challenger 2, are enough. It's not very many...

Written questions and answers - Written questions, answers and statements - UK Parliament

Information from UK Parliament on written questions & answers, written statements and daily reports.

questions-statements.parliament.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

Air and missile defence is important you say? Can I interest anyone in forthcoming research from @RUSI_org on this subject and our Integrated Air and Missile Defence Conference next week? Link and more details in next message below!

Jen Judson

@JenJudson

1 month

How Patriot proved itself in Ukraine and secured a fresh future - My latest:

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

I'm going to have to face the next 48 hours with people using 'spend' and 'uplift' as nouns, aren't I?

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

See also @StaciePettyjohn 's recent article for @WarOnTheRocks , making the same point about the current role of drones complementing artillery, both as precision strike weapons and for targeting.

Drones are Transforming the Battlefield in Ukraine But in an Evolutionary Fashion - War on the Rocks

Headlines would lead one to conclude that the age of killer robots has arrived. In Ukraine, autonomous drone swarmssupposedly hunt for enemies and

warontherocks.com

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

And in preparing a ‘national defence plan’ there are several good examples from which to draw. @elisabethbraw has been writing about this for several years. The MOD also mentions this.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

@pinstripedline It could be the Annually Managed Expenditure (AME) not normally regarded as part of the budget. The last figure we have is the £13.9bn in 2022/23.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

It's definitely right to focus on people, and retention problems, especially around infrastructure and accommodation.

Armed Forces Continuous Attitude Survey: 2023

Results from the armed forces continuous attitude survey (AFCAS).

www.gov.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

I was fortunate to be at the first Paris Defence and Strategy Forum this week, held at @acad_em in Paris. A few highlights to follow. #PDSF2024

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

Domestic political and public support is important to maintain the goodwill and funding necessary to operate a complicated and expensive nuclear deterrent. As my colleague @harries_matthew has highlighted, this happened several weeks ago, but government handling has lagged.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

Having recently joined @RUSI_org it seems appropriate to start here on TwitX (or whatever we're calling it now) by highlighting the work of the Military Sciences team. They've had a busy week! Plenty here to consider over your coffee or Saturday brunch. 🧵

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

Source is from the MOD's own explanation of departmental spending.

Defence departmental resources: 2023

MOD expenditure over time, including breakdowns by expenditure groups, and comparisons to spending in other government areas.

www.gov.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

Rory then claims that '40 to 45%' of the MOD budget is spent 'buying kit'. It's about right for what the full Equipment Plan covers, but remember that includes *both* buying equipment (procurement) and supporting it in service.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

The first highlighted the huge challenge: shrinking militaries, faced with a need to have a wider set of skills, including to handle technology. What is the 'offer' to new recruits, and their families? Culture change was needed, not easy in organisations wedded to tradition.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

Rory is rather snooty about patrol ships in the Indo-Pacific. The Defence Committee also posed some questions about Defence's role in the so-called 'tilt'.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

@pinstripedline ‘Might not be kinetic’?! Dangerous. VIOLENT. Other options involving the English language also available. 😉

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

Ukrainian success in the Black Sea has boosted morale and re-opened grain corridors, but it isn't a substitute for being able to defend against the Russian land threat in 2024. Ukraine still needs its international backers to provide a significant volume of artillery this year.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

17 days

Interesting timing, coming just after the US vote (still to be ratified by the Senate and President Biden) and with European deliberations underway. Looks to be the UK again trying to encourage/reinvigorate support for Ukraine. A couple of points to note in the statement. 🧵

UK Prime Minister

@10DowningStreet

17 days

Ensuring Ukraine wins is the most important thing we can do for global peace and security. That’s why we’re increasing our support - backing Ukraine with £500 million for military aid and delivering our largest-ever package of equipment. #StandWithUkraine

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

I'm not sure where the claims 'we aren't maintaining them properly' and 'we don't have the right spare parts' comes from.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

21 days

Me: could be IRBM, air-launched cruise missile, or maybe sneaky/risky F-35 operation. The IAF: hold our beer.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

21 days

Very interesting. Looks like Israel used an air-launched ballistic missile in the attack on Iran. (Also: hurrah for OSINT; what would be the odds of getting either images of debris out of Iraq & later sat image of the target if this attack occurred 20 years ago?)

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

29 days

Timely @RUSI_org Military Sciences research out today, on the use of drones (including what we mean by that loaded term in this case). It should help dispel some of the myths about what they can achieve, as well as explaining how to maximise their impact.

Jack Watling

@Jack_Watling

29 days

Very pleased to be publishing Mass Precision Strike: Designing UAV Complexes for Land Forces - co-authored with my colleague @Justin_Br0nk at @RUSI_org .

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

19 days

That's....not Sky Sabre. Penny Mordaunt calls for a British Iron Dome defence system

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

This does look rather good. Also, a reminder that the Australians have taken delivery of more F-35s than the UK currently has...

Maz Jovanovich

@maz_jovanovich

2 months

I LOVE this new @AusAirForce campaign! It reminds me of exactly how I felt as a teenager looking for a career that would combine my two loves of science and adventure. I found both in the RAAF, and so much more.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

Some stark figures in here about the scale of the challenge that would face UK medical services in the event of a major war.

RUSI

@RUSI_org

2 months

It is not unreasonable to expect hundreds of casualties per day during periods of large-scale warfighting. So how would the NHS cope with war? @EdArnold_RUSI and Si Horne explore this question in today's #RUSICommentary .

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

Also, we have two operational F-35 squadrons now, not one, albeit I think the second still needs to be qualified to fly from the carriers.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

This follows (though is an improvement upon) the previous test failure, where the government took seven months to make a statement to the House (and said little anyway).

Trident: Test Firing - Hansard - UK Parliament

Hansard record of the item : ' Trident: Test Firing' on Monday 23 January 2017.

hansard.parliament.uk

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

6 days

Good that Campbell mentions my boss and his analysis. It's Malcolm *Chalmers* not Chambers though!

Beyond 2.5%: The UK’s Commitment to Defence

Professor Malcolm Chalmers, our Deputy Director-General, assesses the significance of the government's announcement to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2030.

www.rusi.org

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

2 months

A flying visit to the US this week with to participate in roundtables hosted by @CSIS , with thanks to @maxbergmann for leading and @ISS_RUSI @Eurasia21cntry and @EdArnold_RUSI for letting me tag along! Good to see some old MOD colleagues from @UKinUSA @UKdefUS there too.

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

1 month

The ability to test - repeatedly - strategies and plans before implementation is important if you don’t have much margin for error. Combine this with existing technology (never mind what’s developing) and we might just make better decisions, if we listen.

Dstl

@dstlmod

1 month

We have partnered with @UKStratCom in the development of a new centre for defence experimentation and #wargaming , helping Defence respond to evolving global threats 👉

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Matthew Savill

@MTSavill

3 months

Deployed Government Communications Officers (GCOs) are absolutely vital to military operations (apart from when they're briefing from other people's products 😉). Pretty much any operation you can think of today (and a few you can't) probably has GCO support.

GCHQ

@GCHQ

3 months

Our support to our military has existed for as long as we have, so wherever and whenever they have deployed over the years, we have supported them. In recent years, over 300 of our staff have received campaign medals in recognition for their work alongside the military overseas.

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