Luke Tryl @LukeTryl Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Luke Tryl

@LukeTryl

14,057

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UK Director @Moreincommon_ , Previously Director @TheNSN , @Ofstednews & DfE SpAd 🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦

London, England

https://t.co/1bZBvVeIqM

Joined December 2016

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

6 days

Our new polling of 4 of next week’s mayoral races is featured in today’s @thetimes by @cazjwheeler Starting with the West Midlands where we find incumbent Conservative Andy Street leading Labour’s Richard Parker by 2 points making the race a statistical tie.

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@easy6_66

@ennisdelmarr

@PoleConnection

@ellinonorvigiko

@stw_pdg

@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

Is Sajid Javid the first person to resign on principle twice from the same Prime Minister’s Cabinet?

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

Leaving aside the politics. My biggest concern about 'party-gate' is the growing number of institutions at risk of getting burnt up in the storm - the reputation of the civil service, trust in the police, the integrity of the Union. Things which when lost are so hard to win back.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

Today @Moreincommon_ we have published Britons and Gender Identity. Based on polling of over 5,000 people and focus groups across the country. We found the current divisive online debates simply don't reflect the way the public think about trans and gender identity. (1/n)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

11 months

The sneariness of some on here towards Leave voters in last night’s Question Time is as predictable as it is unpleasant. But you’d have at least hoped that after 7 years people might have realised that telling people they’re stupid or implying they’re bigoted doesn’t change minds

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 years

Last night, when we asked focus group participants how they thought we should pay for the cost of tackling climate change, the immediate (and sincere) response was to cut MPs pay. It's the second time in recent months I've had that response and it worries me in two ways.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 years

Sure it’s “political correctness gone mad” - unless of course you’re the closeted gay teenager, trying to pluck up the courage to come out to your family, who sat awkwardly as everyone sniggered at a much loved TV show using a gay slur for laughs. Merry Christmas to you too BBC!

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

A consistent theme in our focus groups, especially in the red wall, is people picking Angela Rayner as one of few politicians they think is genuinely in touch. Politicians showing they are human does a lot to more to convince people they’re on their side than artificial sobriety

@DPJHodges

(((Dan Hodges)))

1 year

I likje Angela. But Labour need to realise they've now got their best chance of forming a government for over a decade. And that involves convincing people who still have doubts they're serious people with a serious plan for leading the country.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

7 months

Train to Manchester for Conservative Conference not doing wonders to dispel Broken Britain narrative.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

8 months

Find the contrast in tone between coverage of the disruptive activities of Just Stop Oil and those vandalising ULEZ infrastructure ever so slightly jarring, especially from those that are normally staunch supporters of law and order.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 years

Secondly, even with inflated salaries, that the cost of transition to net zero is seen as something that could be paid by cutting the pay of a few hundred people shows when it comes to expectations management, we are nowhere near having explained the scale of reaching net zero.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

11 months

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@JAHeale

James Heale

11 months

Three by elections now loom for Sunak: Nadine Dorries in Mid Beds (maj: 24,664) Boris Johnson in Uxbridge (maj: 7,210) Nigel Adams in Selby (maj: 20,137)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

Tonight’s focus group in Blyth summed up in one quote “I voted to leave, I think I probably shouldn’t have now. A bit like I feel about voting Conservative in the last election” across the board a feeling the country was stuck in a rut.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

8 months

One of our starkest recent poll findings: 75% of voters say that the UK needs a change of Government 25% of voters say that it doesn't. Shows the real headwinds the Conservatives face if this does become framed as a time for change election.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

9 months

It's sometimes suggested a more left wing Labour leader would be further ahead than Starmer. Not if that Labour leader were Jeremy Corbyn. We tested a hypothetical with Corbyn facing Sunak and Labour's lead drops by 17 points to a virtual dead head with the Conservatives.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

5 years

Just to be really clear - This poster from @stonewalluk is an example of how primary schools look at LGBT issues. I challenge anyone to point to *anything* on it that is so “age-inappropriate” that it justifies parents removing children from lessons. This whole debate is bogus.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 months

Whatever the public's stance on social issues and debates that elicit strong views - whether asylum or gender identity - they abhor crassness & cruelty. Politicians would do well to remember that as passions run high in the election year ahead.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 years

Meghan and Harry could easily choose to live a quiet life. That instead, they aren’t backing away from using their position to play a part in the fight against discrimination - knowing the abuse they’ll get from populist cultural war warriors - is a mark of courage and decency.

@emilysheffield

Emily Sheffield

@emilysheffield

4 years

Delighted to have worked with the Duke and Duchess of Sussex on our BHM New Gen Trailblazers list to launch Black History Month. They Zoomed into the Standard from their home in Los Angeles last night to talk about challenging structural racism in the U.K. Their dog joined in too

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

8 months

🚨 New polling conducted in last 2 days (mostly before the PM’s speech). By a 49-18 point margin the public would prefer the Government to do more rather than less to reach net-zero. Even among Tory 2019 voters a greater number want to see more action rather than less.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

🧵 My biggest surprise from our focus group in Leigh on Friday was quite how ridiculous/infuriating participants thought Lee Anderson’s comments about food-bank users were. Everyone (Tory and Labour voting alike) thought the person saying them was on a different planet. (1/6)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

9 months

New data point for why a war on woke might not have the cut through proponents assume. Despite a barrage of criticism for the National Trust for ‘going woke’ - 72% of Brits say it is a force for good, just 7% a force for bad. A higher net good score than the Royal British Legion

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 months

Chris Skidmore is far closer to where the average member of the public is on climate change than Government policy. So far hard to say there has been any political upside from the PM’s Autumn climate u-turns, and instead more political pain (including this pending by-election).

@CSkidmoreUK

Chris Skidmore

4 months

A Statement

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 years

Firstly, that we have allowed perceptions of MPs level of pay (and their greed) to run so out of line with reality. Defending politicians is rarely in anyone's interest, but its clear press coverage/populist attacks have created a sense MPs are being paid 10/100 x what they are.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

Twitter isn't Britain #987 - Having led focus groups in past few weeks on public's views on sex, gender identity and trans, both the tone and substance of how people approach the issues could not be more different to how people behave on here - and it's deeply reassuring.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 months

The green investment pledge was Labour’s second most popular manifesto pledge with those intending to vote for the party. Defending the price tag wasn’t without risk, but I’ve no doubt ditching it ultimately does more harm than good to Starmer’s standing with key voters.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

23 days

We asked whether people thought that Michelle Donnelan should resign when the figure was £15,000 and 66% of the public thought that she should - including 64% of Conservative 2019 voters.

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@PippaCrerar

Pippa Crerar

23 days

EXCL: UK taxpayers have paid out more than £34,000 to cover cost of science minister Michelle Donelan’s libel case - more than double the sum the government previously admitted.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

11 months

Everyone should look at this chart from @jburnmurdoch before making US/UK comparisons on culture wars. We are less divided and more socially liberal - advances in gender equality, gay rights, tackling racism are seen as sources of pride right across the spectrum in the UK.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 months

Having looked at a range of public opinion data - both quant/qual I’ve found nothing to convince me there is electoral benefit to Labour junking the green investment plan - the big risk instead is ditching it reinforces Starmer’s (very real) weakness he doesn’t stand for anything

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

9 months

Incredible chart from @jburnmurdoch in @FT which shows how extraordinary the UK’s climate consensus is. Working in an organisation that looks at polarisation in different countries I get to see how despite our problems, we’re relatively far less polarised.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

6 months

The National Trust is one of the most trusted institutions in Britain and the public overwhelmingly think that it is a force for good. Its AGM results today show a strong mandate from its members today continue its good work.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 months

Almost feels superfluous to do a round up thread. But here we go. 1. This was a horrible night for the Tories. The average swing to Labour across the two elections matched what we saw in the Autumn, there hasn’t been any narrowing in opinion polls or in real votes.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

8 months

This zombie caricature that persists across westminster that the environment and climate change is only the concern of the enlightened in the south and cities and not a concern in the “reactionary” Red Wall is really pernicious and just wrong.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

5 years

I can tell you what isn’t ‘morally right’ A 14 year old coming to terms with being gay & seeing the BBC open a debate on morality of their existence A same-sex couple with a primary school kid watching people say it’s immoral to talk about their family This really isn’t OK

@bbcquestiontime

BBC Question Time

@bbcquestiontime

5 years

Our final question is about learning about relationships at school. #bbcqt

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

9 months

Labour hit 50 points again. If you'd predicted that after the Hartlepool by-election you'd have been laughed out of town. Easy to lose in the noise - but worth stepping back and reflecting how dramatic the shift has been.

@DeltapollUK

Deltapoll

9 months

🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is twenty-five percentage points in the latest results from Deltapoll. Con 25% (-4) Lab 50% (+4) Lib Dem 9% (-3) Other 17% (+4) Fieldwork: 17th-21st August 2023 Sample: 1,520 GB adults (Changes from 9th-11th August 2023)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

5 months

🧵Remember that tweet? We asked voters what they thought of it. By a 68%-10% margin the public thought that it was inappropriate rather than appropriate. While you can't capture all second order effects in a poll, some follow up questions shed further light on how people view it.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 months

This would be a bad idea even from a purely political perspective, reinforcing much of Starmer’s negatives and leaving the party vulnerable to the charge they don’t have a positive offer.

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@PippaCrerar

Pippa Crerar

4 months

EXCL: Labour considering scaling back £28bn green investment fund amid fears Tories will weaponise flagship pledge during election campaign 👇🏼

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

Seems to have been forgotten in the “is Sunak turning it around” or “is Starmer compelling enough” discourse is how miserable things are for most people. People think everything is too expensive and they can’t get a hospital appointment. That’s the fundamentals.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

Some more reflections on our focus group for @TalkTV in Bury North. In all our recent discussions we've heard sobering stories about people's struggles with the cost of living. But what we heard from this group was a magnitude worse. (1/n)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 years

And obviously the two strongly interlink, when you don’t have faith in policy makers and politicians taking decisions, you’re far less likely to embrace their solutions/ calls for major societal change.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

10 months

🧵Danger of throwing the baby out with the bath water. Makes total sense to condemn Just Stop Oil and ULEZ is a problem. But if Labour strategists think climate isn’t a mainstream electoral issue their assumptions about voters are a decade out of date.

The Times & The Sunday Times

News and opinion from The Times & The Sunday Times

www.thetimes.co.uk

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

6 months

Put another way with 12 months to go until the election the Labour vote is more than double that of the Conservatives. Don't think the current state of lots of discourse reflects that reality.

@lara_spirit

Lara Spirit

6 months

Labour lead up to 24 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times CON 23 (=) LAB 47 (+3) LIB DEM 10 (+1) REF UK 8 (-1) GREEN 7 (-2) Fieldwork 7 - 8 November

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

5 months

January 2025 election underpriced.

@lara_spirit

Lara Spirit

5 months

Labour lead up four to 23 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times CON 22 (-3) LAB 45 (+1) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 10 (+1) GREEN 7 (=) Fieldwork 29 - 30 November

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 months

I know it's the nature of politics, but depressing to see a parliamentary procedure game being played to try & put MPs in the most politically difficult spot on Israel-Gaza, rather than acting in good faith on a serious issue which also impacts community relations here in the UK.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

9 months

Spoke to @lbc earlier about the Lee Anderson migrant barge comments. I find one of the most frustrating elements of the debate the suggestion that using the f word is what “working class voters” want from politicians. It really is a patronising Westminster bubble projection.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 months

Perfectly sums up these sorts of rows - shed loads of discourse for something that could ultimately only muster 1.3% of respondents in favour.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

Main lesson from local election results so far is quite clear, you can’t escape reality. In focus groups and polling over the past year people have told us they’re miserable, that it feels like Britain is broken and that the Government if not all to blame certainly isn’t helping.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

The most damning thing about the National Conservatism conference isn’t the silly remarks which should just be ignored - but the overall image of a group at best completely ill at ease & at worst actively angry with the country they’d like to lead. A recipe for electoral oblivion

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

7 months

This is by far the most clear headed analysis I’ve heard about the by-elections. The point Sophy makes about using the wrong baseline (2019) is so important - it’s now afterall just as historically unusual (if not more so) that the Tories pull back enough ground to stay in office

@SophyRidgeSky

Sophy Ridge

7 months

My opening #PoliticsHub thought tonight on why I think pundits have been underpricing a Labour majority - they are using 2019 as their baseline. And 2019 was not a usual election. It was the Brexit election. And it was also the Corbyn election

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

5 months

🧵Four years on from the 2019 Election how are our British Seven Segments intending to vote? In 2019 the Tories won 4 of 7. Fast-forward to today & Labour are ahead in 5 out of 7 reflecting their commanding national poll lead - but some of the individual movements are interesting

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 months

If Keir is using his speech today to call time on ‘woke wars’, an exhausted public are likely to welcome it - overall 73% think there are many more important issues than tackling political correctness/woke issues this election year - including 74% of our Backbone Conservatives.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

9 months

And I suspect people will respond as Adele put in our focus group on Thursday “I paid £2.80 for a cabbage last week”

@alexwickham

Alex Wickham

9 months

NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday read Rishi Sunak is “rolling the dice” this summer, ramping up his political attack operation and leaning into controversial cultural issues that create dividing lines with Labour, Tory ministers and strategists say

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

5 years

On same day Turing is recognised on the £50 note, #BBCPanorama showed the lengths some are going to to bully schools out of teaching about LGBT families. One step forward, one step back. That’s why we can’t just rely on the arc bending towards justice but have to fight for it 🏳️‍🌈

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

8 months

Not to be nit picky but isn’t delaying targets to reach net-zero in the run up to a General Election the opposite of “putting the long term needs of our country before the short term political needs of the moment”

@SamCoatesSky

Sam Coates Sky

8 months

Highly unusual late evening statement from the PM about climate policy leak

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

11 months

Grim. If you’re unable to defend something like raising a pride flag to different parts of your community then you have no place in elected office. The job of politicians is to celebrate all of their community, not be bullied by the loudest/most fundamentalist voices.

@PaulBrandITV

Paul Brand

11 months

The Mayor of Keighley issues a grovelling apology for a “lapse in judgement” after raising a pride flag.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 months

Anderson is about party not public management and the idea he uniquely speaks for the Red Wall is wrong. Raise his comments about nurses not needing food banks or 30p meals in a Red Wall focus group and you get real anger even among those who are eg v conservative on migration

@Samfr

Sam Freedman

4 months

Anderson currently on track to lose Ashfield by 15 points to Labour so perhaps not that much of an asset.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

10 months

Politics of “too many young people going to university” a bit surprising. Our Loyal National (more Red Wall) segment among most likely to say too few/right numbers going whereas Established Liberal (Cameronite/Blue Wall) among most likely to say too many young people go to uni.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

6 years

Hard not to feel incredibly proud that this is how we promote our country abroad. #pride 🌈

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 month

Every time we speak to Reform voters in focus groups am convinced most commentators and politicians get them wrong. Yes immigration is a top issue, but they’re also almost always invariably the first to talk about corporate greed, profiteering big business and backscratching.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 months

A look at our focus group of Tory 2019 voters in Wellingborough. One of the most grim for the govt I’ve moderated. One of the more polite comments was from 74 year old Barbara “I think they’re trying their best, but I just don’t think they’re any good…give someone else a chance”

@DominicPenna

Dominic Penna

3 months

🚨 Wellingborough focus group spells big trouble for the Tories on Thursday > All voted Tory in 2019 — but won’t again > Sunak “financially on another planet”and panel preferred Boris Johnson > Anger over PMQs trans jibe & Bone’s girlfriend as candidate

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

So if Anderson is supposed to be the Ambassador to the Red Wall it wasn’t working in this seat. Comments which are seen to lecture or imply people’s financial troubles are self-inflicted don’t come across as plain speaking, but as out of touch when everyone is struggling. (5/6)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 months

You’d hope those who saw political advantage in amplifying a “trans row” involving a murdered child’s mother reflect on why they’re in politics. At very least they should go and listen to how horrified the public are with it becoming another Westminster parlour game.

@alexwickham

Alex Wickham

3 months

— No10 aides quickly agreed to double down on PMQs gaffe. Some saw a trans row as politically advantageous — other aides thought this was bad judgment — One: worst PMQs gaffe ever. Another: why are we picking a fight with parents of a murdered teenager

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 months

Meanwhile away from the hyper online the National Trust is one of the most trusted institutions in the country.

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@CeliaRichards0n

Celia Richardson

@CeliaRichards0n

4 months

Sometimes I imagine what it would be like if most of the accounts posting this sort of thing were real people and actual members of the National Trust.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 months

Listen to any focus group and it’s so clear - after Brexit, Covid, Partygate Cost of Living, the public are simply exhausted with politics. There is a big electoral prize for whoever can convince people they’ll be able to turn on the news and not worry about what they’ll see/hear

@lewis_goodall

Lewis Goodall

4 months

Starmer: “I promise this- a politics which treads a little lighter on all our lives. That’s the thing about populism or nationalism…It needs your full attention, needs you constantly focussing on this week’s common enemy. And that’s exhausting.” Really interesting section.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

And people's starting point in every conversation we had - from Bury to Blyth to Long Eaton - was one of kindness & compassion. People recognise struggling with your gender identity is hard & they want to accommodate. This clip gives you a flavour of people's thinking. (4/n)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

6 months

Hard not to feel a graphic putting the X logo on Number 10 is a real hostage to fortune given Musk's views on a range of issues and general unpredictability.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 months

First openly gay PM of G7 country. Another step in the direction of progress. 🏳️‍🌈

@BBCNews

BBC News (UK)

4 months

Macron picks Attal, 34, as France's youngest PM

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

5 years

What I find most upsetting about this is the use of ‘age-appropriateness’ to stop the teaching of LGBT issues i.e. it’s just about sex. What a terrible message to send to the thousands of primary age pupils who are growing up in loving same-sex parent families.

@ShabanaMahmood

Shabana Mahmood MP

@ShabanaMahmood

5 years

It’s vital that schools follow the guidance for teaching #RSE , with parental engagement and proper consideration for pupils’ religion and background. Yesterday, I made this clear to Education ministers in response to a petition signed by 1,763 #Birmingham #Ladywood constituents.

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Luke Tryl

1 year

Similarly on 30p meals. The response was “it costs 30p just to turn your hob on these days” no one felt inability to cook was what was driving people to food banks. Once they found out the person making the comments was an MP on a good salary they were even more irritated (3/6)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

Our focus group tonight was in Hitchin and it was clear for many party-gate anger hasn’t faded, even among previous backers of the PM. Here's a flavour of what people said: ‘It’s embarrassing’ ‘He can’t be trusted’ ‘I was a massive Boris fan and he’s turned into an arse’ 🧵(1/n)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

I should add when we talked about some single sex spaces many other issues - unrelated to trans people came up. Turns out for instance lots of Brits (women and men) don't like communal changing areas as is & one of the biggest objection to unisex toilets is mens hygiene. (12/n)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

A serious political class shouldn't be trying to out hair shirt each other on ministerial travel. Of course the shadow chancellor should fly in business class to New York. Of course the Govt should use a jet to get the PM summits. The faux populism of it just downgrades politics

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 months

Anderson’s comments are bad enough on their own terms, but inaction from the Govt would have ramifications beyond these individual comments and represent another norm of acceptability being broken & open the flood gates to slurs about minority groups without fear of consequence.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

7 months

"They’ve said anything Birmingham upwards, we’re just not going to bother" - the verdict of our focus group of first time Conservative 2019 voters in Workington after the Conservative party conference. Write up for @guardian 🔽

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‘I just don’t think he cares’: Workington Tory voters’ verdict on Rishi Sunak

My research group spoke to 2019’s first-time Tory voters in Cumbria, seen as embodying Boris Johnson’s realignment

www.theguardian.com

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

What did we find? Firstly perhaps unsurprisingly for most people trans issues are not a top issue facing the country - just 2% say that. But that doesn't mean that they are ignorant about the issues, most have thought about them. A quarter of Brits know someone who is trans (3/n)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 months

Absolute Tory meltdown in Wellingborough.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

🧵New research from @moreincommon_ on the Rwanda policy finds the public *don’t* support the Government’s proposal for a blanket ban on refugees being able to claim asylum in the UK if they cross the channel - and instead support exemptions for a wide range of groups. (1/n)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 months

🧵🚨 Our new polling of 39 'Blue Wall' constituencies suggests the Conservatives could be on course to lose a whole swathe of formerly safe seats - driven by perceptions the Tory are uncaring and divided and potentially exacerbated by tactical voting.

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Luke Tryl

1 year

We didn’t tell participants who had made the comments. But first tested their view on whether nurses on £30,000 really needed to use a food bank. Everyone felt it displayed ignorance of fact how far £30,000 will go depends entirely on your circumstances (kids/single income) (2/6)

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Luke Tryl

2 years

Why is More in Common interested in this discussion? Because we don't think the current debate is serving anyone well and a conversation dominated by extremes risks leaving people feeling fearful, alienated, isolated and resentful. (2/n).

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

16 days

Further reflection on Andy Street, clear win or lose he will significantly out perform the Tory vote. Given he’s governed as a moderate/big tent Conservative might it give some pause to those at NatCon this week who argue tacking populist right is the sole path to Tory success

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

5 years

Scrapping Ofsted would be regressive, confusing and terrible for standards. My piece for @thesundaytimes on Labour’s proposals. If Labour bans Ofsted it will be a disaster for our children’s education

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

10 months

Nearly 70% of the public think that it was wrong to paint over the Mickey Mouse murals at a children's detention centre & only 11% thought that it was the right decision. Over 70% of both Labour AND Conservative voters thought that it was wrong - our latest polling in @theipaper

@singharj

Arj Singh

10 months

EXC: Vast majority of voters say Robert Jenrick wrong to remove Mickey Mouse asylum murals, poll shows

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 years

It maybe on the second point that rising awareness/concern on climate as per today's @IpsosMORI poll in turn changes expectations of the scale of change necessary. And that more gradual approach may be better for building durable support for change. But clearly a long way to go.

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Luke Tryl

2 months

Fairly confident whatever the result tonight in Rochdale it’s lasting term impact will be in political trivia questions rather on the electoral landscape.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

Most agree that a trans man is a man and a trans woman is a woman. In focus groups its clear most think being trans means someone who has gone through gender reassignment surgery or who has lived in their expressed gender for a long time. For a minority it is about self ID (6/n)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

7 months

I don't think this will happen. But the toxification of the Conservative brand if it did would be immense. I don't think people realise, despite clearly having political skill, Nigel Farage is deeply unpopular - including among much of the Tory voting coalition.

@christopherhope

Christopher Hope📝

@christopherhope

7 months

** EXCLUSIVE ** Rishi Sunak does not rule out Nigel Farage joining the Tory Party, saying the party is a “broad church”

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

22 days

🧵 I’m sceptical that disillusionment among the most progressive voters poses a serious threat to Labour in this election. I want to use our British seven Segments to try and show why…

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

6 months

Crucially then there is a real risk that the take away from the past few months at the top level becomes - Tories don’t care about the North, Don’t care about Net-Zero, don’t care about the homeless - a real retoxification which as post-1997 showed could take years to undo.

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Luke Tryl

7 months

We saw from Uxbridge how narrative shifting by-elections can be. This one will likely be even bigger and makes it very hard for Labour’s opponents to run a repeat of the Ed Miliband in the SNPs pocket advert.

@electpoliticsuk

British Electoral Politics

@electpoliticsuk

7 months

Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election result: LAB: 58.6% (+24.1) SNP: 27.6% (-16.6) CON: 3.9% (-11.1) LDM: 2.9% (-2.2) GRN: 2.0% (+2.0) REF: 1.3% (+1.3) Labour GAIN from the SNP.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

6 months

This headline a good example of why Sunak’s climate u-turns could end up being really politically damaging. The PM wants to portray it as “doing better zero better”, but what cuts through is him going “anti-green” & being anti-green is hugely unpopular right across the electorate

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 year

Slightly self-indulgent personal post. But in an act of pandemic folly took on an Economics Masters and today was graduation day! On a more serious note @BirkbeckUoL is a fantastic institution would be good if we had more like it.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 years

On sport the public do have concerns. Most think that trans women should not participate in women only sporting events. The public recognise this seems unkind, but for most it is an issue of sporting fairness. Most want to find new events to allow trans athletes to compete (7/n)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

11 months

Big shifts in our latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention poll in Playbook today with @RosaFPrince 🌳 Conservatives 28% (-3) 🌹 Labour 47% (+5) 🔶 Liberal Democrats 10% (-3) 💚 Greens 4% (-1) 🟣 Reform UK 6% (+1) Labour lead jumps from 11pts to 19pts Changes with our May poll

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

1 month

🚨Our new voting intention just shared with @JPonpolitics @TimesRadio sees the Conservatives hit a new low. 🌳 Conservative 25% (-2) 🌹Labour 43% (+1) 🔶Lib Dems 11% (+1) 🟣Reform 11% (+1) 💚Green 5% (-1) Lab lead 18, highest under our current methodology N=2027, 19-20/3

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

3 months

Genuinely surprised by the finding that more of the public think Starmer has handled Rochdale allegations well than badly and among Labour voters it is 44-17 saying handled well rather than badly.

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Quarter of voters say Keir Starmer has failed on Labour antisemitism

Just 3 per cent of voters believe Sir Keir Starmer has successfully tackled antisemitism within Labour, a new poll for The Times suggests today

www.thetimes.co.uk

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

5 months

The problem with this type of question is that while people say they’d rather have higher taxes and more spending they also overwhelmingly say they personally don’t want to pay higher taxes themselves.

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@georgeeaton

George Eaton

5 months

The Autumn Statement debate has revolved around tax cuts but only 8% of voters want lower taxes and lower spending. 55% want higher taxes and higher spending.

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Luke Tryl

2 years

I wrote in some more detail about the report for the Guardian here (14/n)

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Forget toxic Twitter debates: the UK isn’t as divided on trans rights as you think | Luke Tryl

Our report shows that people are compassionate and respectful, says Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common

www.theguardian.com

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Luke Tryl

16 days

There have been so many dire Tory poll scores recently it’s easy to become used to them. But lowest in 45 years really is something, and clearly existential for the party.

@CameronGarrett_

Cameron Garrett

@CameronGarrett_

16 days

💥RECORD BREAKING @IpsosUK VOTING INTENTION 💥 Lab: 44% Con: 19% Reform: 13% Lib Dems: 9% Greens: 9% Other: 6% Lowest the Conservatives have ever polled with us across 45 years of surveys (breaking last month’s record)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

7 months

Tonight’s two results could also be proof that the Tories learned the lessons from the wrong by-election in July particularly around signalling and brand.

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

4 months

Seems the polls which usually have smaller Labour leads have Labour’s lead slightly up and the polls which tend to have larger Labour leads also have Labour’s lead slightly up. However you look at it no sign of any narrowing.

@OpiniumResearch

Opinium

@OpiniumResearch

4 months

🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK Labour leads by 14 points in first poll of 2024. • Labour 41% (+1) • Conservatives 27% (n/c) • Lib Dems 11% (n/c) • SNP 4% (+1) • Greens 6% (-1) • Reform 10% (+1)

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@LukeTryl

Luke Tryl

2 months

I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of Party Conference event organisers suddenly cried out in terror

@zoe_grunewald

Zoë Grünewald

2 months

🚨👀 The Independent hears that the general election will be Thursday October 10th...

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