KSE Institute 🇺🇦 @KSE_Institute Twitter profile

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

9 days

1/7 @KSE_Institute 's experts @ben_hilgenstock @elinaribakova & Anna Vlasyuk alongside @GuntramWolff from @Bruegel_org published the Working Paper 'Using the financial system to enforce export controls on Russia.' Full:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

@FT Thank you for featuring our research! Hopefully soon all the gaps in the sanctions regime will be addressed and Russia will lose access to Western components for weapons.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/5 🇷🇺 has lost $113B in oil exports due to EU & G7 sanctions, plus an additional $55B from the 🇪🇺 shift away from 🇷🇺 gas. Four steps could slash another $50B from the Kremlin's annual export revenues. New paper by @sanctionsgroup : What should be done 👇

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

11 months

1/ Russia still uses Western components for the production of its weaponry despite Western sanctions, reveals a joint study by @KSE_Institute and @sanctionsgroup : @AndriyYermak @McFaul @Nataliia_Shapo @elinaribakova @ben_hilgenstock @vladvlas

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

5 months

1/5 Total Russian exports fell to $33B from last month's $40B. With imports stable, the trade surplus is around $10B/month in Jan-Oct 2023. The external environment is less supportive than last year but not critically pressured. Full Chartbook:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

1/4 @KSE_Institute & @sanctionsgroup study on Russia's military imports reveals 🇷🇺 imported over $22bn in critical components in Jan-Oct 2023. Notably, items from @intel , @ADI_News , @AMD , & @TXInstruments were found in Russian weaponry on the battlefield:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

1/5 In 2023, Russia's current account surplus fell to $50.2B (-79% from 2022's $238B). Trade surplus shrank to $118.3B (-63%), with goods exports down 29%. The less supportive external environment is undermining macro stability:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

1/3 @KSE_Institute Russia Chartbook: “Fortress Russia” is cracking under sanctions. Sharp drop in energy revenues, growing budget deficit, and ruble depreciation are the key reasons. Details: @ben_hilgenstock @Nataliia_Shapo @elinaribakova @JPavytska

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

1/2 About 75% of the decline in Russia’s energy revenues can be attributed to Western sanctions, not market prices, based on analysis of oil sales records. Read more from @NastyaStogney article for @FT , featuring KSE Institute research:

Russia admits ‘problems’ as energy revenues drop

Finance minister Anton Siluanov tells Vladimir Putin that ‘all these discounts’ are to blame for 50% fall in revenue

www.ft.com

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/4 @elinaribakova joined @AtlanticCouncil on US National Security policy regarding RU aggression and authoritarianism. Grateful for the invitation @KSE_Institute to the sanctions panel alongside @rogerzakheim @LukeDCoffey @EvelynNFarkas @SSestanovich . Watch here:

Atlantic Council

@AtlanticCouncil

3 months

🇺🇦 @elinaribakova : It is important to hold accountable any country that wants to dominate, aggress and invade a neighboring country. Watch the @ACEurasia event on a renewed policy of containment towards Russia:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/4 As of Feb 20, 2024, @USTreasury sanctioned 27 Russian crude vessels: 16 tankers were unloaded, 8 loaded ones are stationary, and 3 with planned shipments but no final destination. Full Russian Oil Tracker:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

1/ In 1Q2023, exports of oil and oil products from 🇷🇺 fell by $15.6B, or 29%, compared to 4Q2022, partially as a result of restrictions imposed by the EU and G7, according to «Russian Oil Exports Under International Sanctions» by @KSE_Institute @elinaribakova @ben_hilgenstock

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

1/3 Russian imports of CNC machinery tools surged to $292M in Jan-Oct 2023, a 33% increase. Key suppliers, including Germany, South Korea, and Taiwan, collectively account for over 82%. Concerningly, many Russian buyers remain unsanctioned.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

📌 1/6 @elinaribakova , in testimony for the Senate @HSGAC @HSGAC_GOP hearing on The U.S. Technology Fueling Russia's War in Ukraine, highlighted key issues and offered policy recommendations to stop the flow of critical components to the aggressor. 🧵👇

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

5 months

3/5 Updated projections foresee Russian oil and gas exports at $225B in 2023, $186B in 2024, and $176B in 2025. Earnings this year will surpass estimates by $27B, contributing to an overall 2023 surplus of $55B. Sustained pressure from sanctions is vital.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

5 months

5/5 After a base effects-driven dip in spring/summer, both headline and core inflation are on the rise. Projections indicate headline inflation reaching ~ 8% by year-end. Notably, the FMCG-based price index has surged 47.9% since Feb '22 (vs. ~20% of the overall CPI).

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/3 @KSE_Institute & other experts stress in a FREE Policy Brief: Sanctions are crucial against 🇷🇺 threat to the rule-based international order. Notably, sanctions' targeting Russian energy exports have significantly hit 🇷🇺 macroeconomic stability 🧵👇

Sanctions on Russia: Getting the Facts Right • FREE NETWORK

The important strategic role that sanctions play in the efforts to constrain Russia’s geopolitical ambitions and end its brutal war on Ukraine is often questioned and diminished in the public debate....

freepolicybriefs.org

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

9 months

1/5 @KSE_Institute with @sanctionsgroup have detected 174 foreign components in Russian Shahed-136/131, Lancet and Orlan UAVs. 91% of them were manufactured by companies from sanctions coalition countries. More: @McFaul @AndriyYermak @Nataliia_Shapo

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

9 months

Full report here:

Foreign Components in Russian Military Drones

kse.ua

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/4 Russia heavily relied on the NWF, depleting ~50% of its liquid assets (~4.8 trln rub) since Feb '22. In Dec '23, hard-currency holdings, including euros, hit zero. Only $55B in yuan assets & gold remain. Budget funding via the NWF becomes challenging.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

9 months

5/5 Our recommendations: 1️⃣ Alignment of Sanctions 2️⃣ Broader export controls 3️⃣ Improved company compliance 4️⃣Increase Responsibility 5️⃣ Better utilization of existing institutions This measures can prevent sanctions violations, and curb Russia's ability to continue the war

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

5 months

4/5 Ruble's drastic drop—down 41% vs. USD, 43% vs. Euro since Oct '22. Recent capital controls and CBR rate hikes aim at stabilization. The regime prioritizes ruble stability and controlled inflation ahead of the 2024 elections.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

8 months

1/9 @KSE_Institute Russia Chartbook: "Sanctions Impact Exports and the Ruble, but Continued Effectiveness Needs to Be Ensured." Trade balance declined 68% Jan-Aug YoY, leading to an 86% drop in current account surplus. More action is needed. Chartbook:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

5 months

2/5 While the surplus bounced back moderately to $17B in Q3 2023, it remains 78% below its peak in Q2 2022. The improvement is attributed to a larger goods trade surplus and a reduced income and transfers deficit.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

For total exports of Russian crude oil, prices dropped from $73.32/barrel in November and $73.70 in December to $60.03 in January, $56.06 in February, and $59.49 in March. @ben_hilgenstock @elinaribakova @Nataliia_Shapo

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 years

@melindaharing From a technical standpoint, 🇮🇱 is believed to have efficient anti-drone systems that 🇺🇦 urgently needs. Besides technical questions we cant help, but ask why 🇷🇺 is still a member of the UN Security Council and when it will be designated as a state sponsor of terrorism?

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

@KSE_Institute & @sanctionsgroup insights from Expert Conference on the Impact of Russian #Sanctions 1. Russia is losing the #Gas battle it has launched against the West @McFaul @CraigKennedy77 @elinaribakova @BLSchmitt @ben_moll @ben_hilgenstock @Nataliia_Shapo 1/5

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/5 Despite 3.6% GDP growth in 2023 from war-related stimulus, Russia lost ~$170B in exports. @elinaribakova in op-ed for @FT notes: sanctions aren't catastrophic, as isolating the RU economy is costly & shares 3 lessons from Russia's war in Ukraine.

Our experience with Russia holds lessons for future sanctions

Seeking complete isolation of a large, complex and globally-integrated economy is costly and difficult

www.ft.com

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 years

@SergiyKyslytsya @Iran_UN @KSE_Institute calculated that the total amount of damage to 🇺🇦 infrastructure is $114.5 billion. 🇮🇷 should be as responsible as 🇷🇺 and 🇧🇾 for war crimes in 🇺🇦

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

2/5 Russia's foreign trade stabilizes at $35B/month in exports and $25B in imports. Weaker exports cost around $14B monthly vs. 2022 due to sanctions & moderating energy prices. Increased price cap enforcement could lead to critically low foreign currency inflows in 2024.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

10 months

#Sanctions Despite attempts to circumvent sanctions, Moscow's energy revenues continue to decline. In June, oil and gas revenues of the 🇷🇺 federal budget amounted to ₽528.6 bn (~US$6.3 bn), marking a 26.4% YoY decrease and a 7.4% decrease compared to May.

Yuliia Pavytska

@JPavytska

11 months

Despite attempts to circumvent, 🇷🇺 O&G revenues continue to fall. In June, they equaled 528.6 bn RUB. This is 26.4% less YoY and 7.4% less than in May.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

2/3 Most CNC machine sales and shipments to Russia come from China, Hong Kong, and Turkey. Coalition entities only accounted for 10.6% of sales and 21.7% of shipments in Jan-Oct 2023. The EU, South Korea, and Taiwan still contribute, but Turkey stands out.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

10 months

❗️ Despite existing sanctions, 🇷🇺 secures a daily windfall of $425M from oil exports, reveals @KSE_Institute new study. Sanctions on Russian oil MUST be strengthened! @Nataliia_Shapo @ben_hilgenstock @elinaribakova @JPavytska @McFaul @sanctionsgroup 1/10

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/4 Sanctions are a tradeoff between maximizing the sanctioned country’s economic loss & minimizing the loss to the sanctioning countries. And now coalition countries are in a stronger position than RU. Read the FREE Policy Brief: 🧵👇

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/5 February's 'Russian Oil Tracker' by KSE Institute: @USTreasury Targeted Sanctions on Shadow Fleet are Working, but Russia Seeks Ways to Bypass. Despite efforts by Ukraine & allies, Russian export volumes and revenues stay high. More:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/3 Russia relied on the NWF, depleting ~50% of its liquid assets (~4.7 trillion) since Feb 2022. In Dec 2023, hard-currency holdings, including euros, hit zero. Only $55B in yuan assets & gold remain. Budget funding via the NWF becomes challenging. More:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

10 months

1/3 Multinational companies in Russia paid $3.5B in profit tax on $213.9B of revenue in 2022, indirectly supporting the war in Ukraine. Discover more insights in the joint report "The Business of Staying" by @B4Ukraine and @KSE_Institute @SelfSanctions :

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

10 months

1/7 @KSE_Institute Russia Chartbook: “Sanctions are Working, But No Inflection Point in Sight". Federal deficit has declined from 3.4T rubles in Jan-April to 2.6T in H1 2023. Q1 2023 GDP is down by only 1.8% YoY. Chartbook: @ben_hilgenstock @JPavytska

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

3/5 Russian oil exports grew by 6.8% in Deс. Notable shifts include a 15.4% drop in shipments to China, stable exports to India, and 1.0 mbd to unknown destinations. Overall, 2023's steady export volumes indicate the success of the price cap in stabilizing the oil market.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

5/5 KSE Institute predicts oil and gas exports at $228B (2023), $186B (2024) & $176B (2025). Current account surpluses expected at only $41B and $31B in 2024-25. Stressing sustained sanctions as a $10/barrel oil price change can affect earnings by ~$25-30B/year.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

3/3 Mass exodus of skilled workers from 🇷🇺 continues to escalate, with over 1.3 mn people under 35 leaving the country only in the past year alone. New potential waves of mobilization will likely trigger more. Details:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/5 On the 2nd anniversary of full-scale war, @B4Ukraine 's report urges the G7/EU to tighten sanctions. It also advocates for the withdrawal of companies that continue to fund the war, reinforcing @KSE_Institute 's consistent call: Why it matters 👇

B4Ukraine

@B4Ukraine

3 months

Two years since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine continues to heroically resist with the help of its partners. But as long as Russia has the funds to continue waging wars, it will do so. Sanctions have not fully delivered as Russia found ways to circumvent them. Our new report calls

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

@KSE_Institute welcomes @elinaribakova , a specialist in global markets, economic governance, and economic sovereignty, a non-resident senior fellow at @PIIE and @Bruegel_org , as a new Director of KSE International Program!

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

1/ What's going on with sanctions against Russia? We'll discuss it on May 15th at 4 pm (BST) in the first episode of #KSETalks with @elinaribakova and @AgatheDemarais ! Subscribe so you don't miss the Youtube and Facebook broadcast! Register -

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

5 months

1/3 October's oil prices show a $1.7 narrowing in the weighted average 🇷🇺 crude discount. Urals FOB Baltic, Black Sea, ESPO FOB averages at $77/bbl, $79/bbl, $84/bbl. Diesel, fuel oil, naphtha surpass price caps, revealing weak EU/G7 policy enforcement:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

6 months

1/3 British company @FTDIChip sold tank tech to Russia after the invasion. Thanks @thetimes for monitoring the issue and featuring @KSE_Institute & @sanctionsgroup study. Full article:

How a British firm sold tank tech to Russia after the invasion

A British company has been accused of “shameful” behaviour by selling microchips to Russia after it invaded Ukraine, with the kit later being found in at least

www.thetimes.co.uk

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/2 @FT reveals the "Russian 'dark fleet' lacks disaster insurance," leaving Russian insurers exempt from covering huge clean-up costs in oil spill events. Thanks to @xtophercook & @OilSheppard for sharing & referencing @KSE_Institute 's study.

Russian ‘dark fleet’ lacks disaster insurance, leaks suggest

Moscow-based insurer Ingosstrakh will not cover claims on tankers evading sanctions

www.ft.com

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/3 In Feb 2024, the shadow fleet accounted for 73% of crude oil volume share & 52% for oil products, posing a threat to price cap leverage. In Q4 2023, only ~2% of seaborne crude oil exports were <$60/bbl, with G7/EU services contributing to ~30%. More:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

11 months

3/ Despite current sanctions and export controls, Analog Devices (186), Texas Instruments (145), Microchip Technology (96), Intel Corporation (63), and AMD (62), all US-based, emerge as the leading suppliers of hi-tech components in Russian weaponry.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/3 Russian economy heavily relies on oil & gas: 60% of exports & 40% of gov revenues. In '23, falling O&G prices + sanctions, led to a $113B loss in oil export earnings. Plus, the EU's shift away from RU gas caused a permanent $55B loss since Feb '22:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/3 Enforcement of sanctions is crucial, with ongoing efforts by governments, think tanks, and the private sector to close loopholes. Dismissing these actions undermines their impact & dismantle the sanctions regime. FREE Policy Brief:

Sanctions on Russia: Getting the Facts Right • FREE NETWORK

The important strategic role that sanctions play in the efforts to constrain Russia’s geopolitical ambitions and end its brutal war on Ukraine is often questioned and diminished in the public debate....

freepolicybriefs.org

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

🚩As of April 2023, the documented damages stand at a staggering $147.5 billion (at replacement cost). #WarDamage Full report - @Nataliia_Shapo @Mylovanov @elinaribakova @JPavytska @DamagedInUa Details 👇

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

4/5 Ruble has lost ~41% vs. USD, 43% vs. Euro since Oct '22. However, it has stabilized only due to tough policies — capital controls and CBR rate hikes. Now, the regime focuses on stability and controlled inflation ahead of the 2024 elections.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/3 Russia's economy beats the odds—can it last? @drumloman86 from @dwnews explores this critical issue. Thanks for delving into the topic and featuring insights from @elinaribakova & @ben_hilgenstock . Read more:

Ukraine war: Russia's economy beats the odds — can it last?

Two years ago Russia was hit with severe sanctions after it invaded Ukraine. Yet predictions of an economic meltdown have not come to pass.

www.dw.com

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

2/3 The embargo on 🇷🇺 oil and oil products, coupled with falling oil and gas prices, will result in a 41% drop in oil and a 64% decline in gas revenues for Moscow in 2023. Since Oct 2022, ₽ has depreciated by 33% against the $, and the trend continues.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

10 months

1/7 ‘Just over 500 days since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia is importing as many, if not more, Western-produced components than it was before the attack’, writes @ElinaRibakova for @barronsonline : More in our study:

Russia's War Machine Is Still Running on Western Equipment

Extensive export controls haven't been enough to prevent Western products from being used in the war on Ukraine, writes Elina Ribakova.

www.barrons.com

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

1/4 In 2023, Russian oil and gas revenues reached ₽8.8T ($169B), a -24% YoY decrease compared to record-breaking 2022 (-$67B), and -3% from the pre-invasion 2021 (-$20B).

Yuliia Pavytska

@JPavytska

4 months

🇷🇺O&G revenues: Dec 23: drop to 650 bn RUB or -30% YoY. This is -32% to Nov, - 60% to Oct - confirms that sanctions enforcement matters, @KSE_Institute @sanctionsgroup will keep pushing this 2023: drop to 8.8 trln RUB (-24% YoY, -3% 2021). In $ terms -67$bn YoY, -20$bn to 2021

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

3/3 Analysis reveals that some companies, like @Siemens @dnsolutionsusa @MachineTools , increased sales, others, like @Hyundai and @FANUCAmerica , reduced exposure. Effective supply chain control through due diligence is evident.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

10 months

Over 90% of Ukrainian exports, including grain, flow through Black Sea ports (Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi). Russia's withdrawal from the #GrainDeal and brutal attacks on 🇺🇦 seaport infrastructure caused devastating consequences, as @elinaribakova shared with @bsurveillance

BSurveillance

@bsurveillance

10 months

Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics says the rising tensions in the Black Sea is "absolute devastation"

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

🎙️We are live! The inaugural episode of #KSETalks is now streaming. Join us as @elinaribakova & @AgatheDemarais delve into the realities of sanctions against Russia 🔗YouTube: 🔗Facebook: Tune in now for an insightful discussion!

KSE Talks #1: Agathe Demarais - What's really going on with sanctions against Russia?

Event by Kyiv School of Economics on Monday, May 15 2023

www.facebook.com

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/2 India led Russian seaborne crude oil imports, rising 11% to 1553 kb/d in Dec 2023. Turkey also set records with 433 kb/d in Nov and 421 kb/d in Dec. In total, India, China, and Turkey accounted for 91% of RU crude exports in Dec. Full ROT:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

@sanctionsgroup and @KSE_Institute will hold an online discussion “Expert Conference on the Impact of Russian Sanctions” on December 21 at 5:00 p.m. Kyiv time Pre-registration is required:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

11 months

5/ Main exporters of dual-use tech to 🇷🇺 are Hong Kong (46%), China (25%), and Turkey (8%). In 4Q 2022, sellers from China (including HK) accounted for over 87% of all Russian semiconductor imports — a significant increase from the corresponding figure of 33% in 4Q 2021.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

During @HSGAC hearing, @elinaribakova highlights Russia's heavy reliance on US & coalition countries for critical components. Ukraine has identified over 2800 foreign critical components in RU weapons, 95% from coalition countries, 70% from US alone. More:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/2 @derspiegel highlights a crucial problem – Russia's shadow fleet. It not only funds the Kremlin's military but also poses an environmental threat. Thanks for featuring @KSE_Institute and citing our research. More:

Umschiffung von Öl-Sanktionen: USA gehen gegen marode russische Geisterflotte vor

Mit Sanktionen wollen die westlichen Länder den russischen Ölsektor treffen, doch viele Lieferungen dauern an und gefährden die Umwelt. Nun haben die USA weitere Schiffe ins Visier genommen.

www.spiegel.de

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

3/3 @sanctionsgroup unveils 4 measures for a $50B annual cut in 🇷🇺 oil and gas earnings. In just 2 years, O&G sanctions have already cost Russia a whopping $170B, hitting ~10% of the 2023 GDP. More actions ahead to keep squeezing 🇷🇺 military machine:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

3/5 Lower Price Caps: Decrease oil and refined products price caps, aiming to cut Russia's foreign exchange inflows by $25-30 billion annually.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

4/4 CBR rate hikes, responding to a 40% ruble devaluation, affected bank liquidity. Despite recovery, interbank stress is evident in liquidity surplus composition. CBR's July-Dec 2023 tightening (+850 bps) and capital controls showcase efforts amid economic challenges.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

📢1/4 Today at 13:30 CET, don't miss "Two Years Later: Addressing the Long-Range Consequences of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine" by @Bruegel_org . Join @KSE_Institute experts @ben_hilgenstock & @elinaribakova to discuss sanctions, accession & energy.

Two years later: addressing long-term consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The event marked the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, focusing on discussions about sanctions, accession, and energy

www.bruegel.org

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

3/4 Russia's reserves of $634B face immobilization, with ~$288B locked by sanctions on CBR & NWF. Accessible funds: $152B in gold & ~$118B in FX assets, mainly yuan. Despite capital outflows, favorable BoP dynamics led to $187B accumulation in foreign assets from Q1'22 - Q3'23.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/7 @KSE_Institute joined a FREE Policy Brief to refute doubts on sanctions' effectiveness expressed in media amid the 2nd anniversary of 🇷🇺 invasion. Sanctions aren't a substitute but a complement to financial & military support for 🇺🇦:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

3/ Western companies remain heavily involved in 🇷🇺 crude oil exports in the Pacific. At the same time, almost all oil is sold above the price cap level of $60/barrel. @KSE_Institute believes this is strong evidence for sanctions violations and requires further investigation.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

11 months

6/ Among key policy recommendations for enhanced sanctions and export controls for high-tech components are expanded control regimes, tightened documentary requirements, targeting third-country intermediaries, and others. More:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

5/5 Isolate Russia's Oil and Gas Sector: Sever access to essential Western technology and services, further straining Russia's energy production capabilities and costs. Read full Paper by @sanctionsgroup @McFaul @AndriyYermak :

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

8 months

1/7 @Mylovanov , @Nataliia_Shapo , and @Ben_Hilgenstock w/ @TorbjornBecker , @Vladvlas and Anna Caprile took part in the policy dialogue "Strengthening sanctions against Russia: What more can and should be done?", held by @KSE_ua @epc_eu and @IRF_Ukraine . Key insights 👇

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/3 Recent newspaper articles laud Russia's economic resilience, but they overlook a critical shift: it's becoming a war economy, driven by war stimulus. In 2024, $100B in defense expenditures is projected to boost RU GDP growth by 2.5%. FREE Policy Brief:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/7 @KSE_Institute Ru Chartbook: “Further Weakening Of Russian Macroeconomic Stability Will Require Additional Measures.” OFAC’s sanctions on vessels work, yet revenues rebound. Despite high budget deficit, military spending drives GDP growth.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

2/4 The small January deficit meant that Russia didn’t have to rely on the NWF, and new OFZ issuance was moderate. Domestic borrowing declined by 10% in 2023—to an average 220B rubles/month. Meanwhile, domestic banks are the only remaining buyers for OFZs.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

U.S. tech powers Russian missile attacks on Ukraine as sanctions fall short. Thanks @Newsweek @DanielBush for referencing @KSE_Institute & @sanctionsgroup study.

U.S. tech powers Russian missile attacks on Ukraine as sanctions fall short

Russia imports billions of dollars in technology each month for its war effort in Ukraine in a vast system of sanctions and export control evasion.

www.newsweek.com

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

1/4 KSE Institute predicts a deepening recession and weakening ruble in 🇷🇺 due to #sanctions and falling energy exports in 2023. Read the full overview “One year of sanctions” via link:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

🔥The RF federal budget deficit for January-April reached 3.4 trillion rubles! It now exceeds the planned full-year deficit of 2.9 trillion rubles. Our forecast for 2023 is a deficit of 12.5 trillion rubles. @elinaribakova @Nataliia_Shapo @JPavytska @ben_hilgenstock

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

2/5 Stop the Russian Shadow Fleet: Intensify sanctions and enforce oil spill insurance to make Russia depend on the compliant mainstream fleet. Enhance scrutiny and penalties for sanction evasion.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/11 The debate for and against the confiscation of frozen Russian assets has resurfaced in the G7 and the EU. @KSE_Institute has consistently argued that this measure is legal and justified. All the arguments in our legal report - 🧵👇

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/4 In Dec, 196 loaded Russian shadow fleet tankers left Russian ports, with 73% of them built more than 15 years ago, increasing the probability of an environmental catastrophe for which Russia will refuse to pay. Read more:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

Tomorrow @elinaribakova will testify before the @HSGAC Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations on how Russia is still able to import US technology for its weapons even after two years of full-scale war. More:

The U.S. Technology Fueling Russia’s War in Ukraine: How and Why - Committee on Homeland Security &...

www.hsgac.senate.gov

Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

3 months

An honor to be invited to testify on Russia's access to critical components for its military before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, alongside James Byrne @RUSI_org and @damspleet @conflictarm

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/3 The Canadian @CBCTheNational is exploring how Western parts end up in Russian weapons & how the West, including Canada, contributes via intermediaries. @BMakuch met Ukrainian hackers and @bilousova_o from @KSE_Institute . Watch the investigation here:

Hackers expose how Russia skirts sanctions for its weapons

Despite tight sanctions, Western parts are being used in Russia’s battlefield weapons. CBC’s Ben Makuch meets with Ukrainian hackers who reveal that one arms...

www.youtube.com

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

These are just part of the findings of the research by @KSE_Institute and @sanctionsgroup experts: @Nataliia_Shapo @elinaribakova @ben_hilgenstock @TaniaBabina @itskhoki @mironov_fm Learn more:

Russian Oil Exports under International Sanctions

kse.ua

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/6 @KSE_Institute Ru Chartbook: “Addressing The Shadow Fleet Challenge: Stepped-Up Enforcement Weighs On Russia’s Ability To Evade The Price Cap.” Exports & surpluses drop; OFAC sanctions vessels & discount on Ru oil widens, but economy rebounds.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

11 months

4/ Majority of transactions are facilitated through shell companies. In March-December 2022, close to 80% of all critical components were produced in four countries: China (27%), Malaysia (22%), Vietnam (18%), and South Korea (13%).

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

1/2 Russia’s economy outperformed expectations in 2022, with GDP only falling by 2.1%. However, we project that the economic crisis will deepen this year (-6%) and next (-2.6%) as net exports weigh on activity.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/3 @KSE_Institute forecast for RU O&G exports: $204B in 2024 & $179B in 2025, down from $225B in 2023. Current account surpluses: $51B & $44B in 2024-25. Sanctions are crucial as $10/bbl oil price change affects earnings by ~$25-30B/year. Full study:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

4/5 Complete the EU and G7 Ban on Russian Hydrocarbons: Enforce a total ban on Russian LNG and gas, eliminating key export revenues and promoting diversification.

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14

KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

Russia continues to sell oil well above $60. Ships and insurance companies from the West play a role here, writes @BenjaminBidder for @DerSpiegel , highlighting the @KSE_Institute study "Russian Oil Exports Under International Sanctions":

(S+) So umgeht Russland die Ölsanktionen des Westens

Russland kann weiter Öl verkaufen – für deutlich mehr als im 60-Dollar-Preisdeckel festgelegt. Das zeigt eine Analyse, die dem SPIEGEL vorliegt. Dabei spielen offenbar Schiffe und Versicherungen aus...

www.spiegel.de

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

4 months

4/4 @KSE_Institute & @sanctionsgroup @McFaul @AndriyYermak provide recommendations and urge policymakers to address gaps in export controls, boost corporate responsibility, target third-country circumvention, & strengthen institutions & cooperation. Full:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

11 months

2/ The largest number of imported components in 🇷🇺 weaponry are microchips (336), ~43% of which are utilized in the production of Kalibr, Iskander-K, Kh-101, and Kh-51 missiles. Other popular foreign components: processors (146), transistors (48), and memory devices (47).

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

8 months

1/4 New edition of 'Russian Oil Tracker' report by KSE Institute: in July-August Russian seaborne oil exports was the lowest since September 2022, but revenues surged due to narrowing discounts on crude & oil products and soaring world prices More:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

3 months

1/4 January's 'Russian Oil Tracker' by KSE Institute: December's oil exports fell by $1.4B to $14.4B, but export volume increased by ~6%. Moreover, Russian crude shipments have low reliance on Western maritime services, heavily using the shadow fleet:

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

1 year

2/ The Kremlin has almost completely shifted its focus from 🇪🇺 to 🇨🇳 and 🇮🇳. These two countries purchased 75% of 🇷🇺 crude oil. But the dramatic shift in demand in some market segments has led to wider discounts for crude, especially for Urals where it widened by $10-15/barrel.

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

At the @HSGAC hearing, @SenBlumenthal quotes @elinaribakova 's @FT op-ed: The need for stronger sanctions on companies, stricter penalties & detection, as the credibility of sanctions is at risk in areas with limited leverage (export controls & oil market).

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KSE Institute 🇺🇦

@KSE_Institute

2 months

1/2 Russia's dependency on advanced hardware & software products, coupled with recent exits of foreign companies, their investments, & expertise, is impacting the industry. A complete cut-off would disrupt LNG production and escalate oil production costs.

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