Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦 @elinaribakova Twitter profile

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

3 months

It is an honor to have been able to testify on export controls to the US Senate alongside experts @damspleet and James Byrne @RUSI_org . Written testimonies and video recording are available here

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

@Mylovanov An aside: people are yelling in flawless Russian, speaking Russian doesn’t make them any less Ukrainian, or in favor of Russian invasion or pro-Putin.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

@Mylovanov People are yelling in flawless Russian: “who are you and why are you here?” Should send a message.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Minus 15 years of economic growth in Russia in just a few weeks and counting. We expect a contraction of -15% in 2022, driven mostly by the sharp contraction in domestic demand. with @BHilgenstockIIF

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

10$ on oil price gives Russia ~ $20 bn of current account inflows per year. With imports collapsing Russia's 2022 current account could exceed $200 bn. Despite ~ 40% of $640 bn @bank_of_russia reserves arrested, Russia could rebuild buffers from the current account surplus.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

What further sanctions against Russia are still available? 1. “Oil for food” 2. Synchronization & tightening of the financial sanctions (by bank by country) 3. No one is talking about critical software. But 🇷🇺 computers, routers, cloud services are all run on Western software

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Russia's budget is enjoying exceptionally high revenues from oil and gas inflows. Both are taxed via mineral extraction tax and export duties.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

1/ Semiconductors are essential for Russia's weapons used in Ukraine. This is what happened to the transactions with countries that used to be Russia's top suppliers in 2021. Note not all semiconductors are under sanctions. w/ @mironov_fm

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ Russia’s financial system is back to business as usual after a few weeks of severe bank runs (nearly Rub 10 trillion in liquidity withdrawn). Those who though that cutting Russia from financing for a few weeks at the beginning of the war would stop the war have proven naive.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

1/ Russia substantially increased chip imports in 2022, past the pre-war peak. The value of chip imports is up from $1,8 bn recorded for Jan-Sept 2021 to $2,45 bn over the same period in 2022.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

11 months

Export controls? What export controls? Russia gets as many critical components for its military as before Feb 2022 Components by company HQs

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

4 months

What “fatigue”? Two years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 74% of Americans view the war there as important to U.S. national interests – with 43% describing it as very important.

Pew Research Center

@pewresearch

4 months

74% of Americans view the Russia-Ukraine war as important to U.S. national interests. Similar shares see the war between Israel and Hamas (75%) and tensions between China and Taiwan (75%) as important to U.S. national interests. Explore more:

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

#Sanctions are working. Since the EU embargoed Russia’s 🇷🇺 coal, Russian producers are forced at multiples less (blue bars) than global prices (red bars), and domestic commodity hedging markets have collapsed. Data source ⁦ @bank_of_russia ⁩

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ Russia's sovereign debt (presumably new) is sanctioned. No more access to the US/EU markets. What does it mean? Russia's government is in fiscal surplus, apart from the rollover of debt, Russia is "overfunding" borrowing when strictly speaking it does not need to.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ What would an Energy Embargo mean for Russia? We already expect a growth contraction of -15% in 2022, yet the financial system appears to be stabilizing and Ruble is nearly back to pre-war levels thanks to tight capital controls and CA surplus. w @BHilgenstockIIF

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ Where does the West have the most leverage vis-a-vis Russia? It is first and foremost oil exports. Gas is important, but something that has to be addressed over time. Oil embargo/oil for food would have an immediate impact on Russia's balance of payments.

Jan Zilinsky

@janzilinsky

2 years

Important data and arguments from @sguriev & @itskhoki

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ Important announcement on further Russia sanctions. Key full blocking of Sberbank, further SOE sanctions, no more investments, repayment from frozen FX. Nice ref to our -15 forecast. US, G7 and EU Impose Severe and Immediate Costs on Russia | ⁦WH

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

When everyone thought that Russia’s stock market was so dead, it could not react, even the stock market was down 10% on the “emergency” referendums to attach occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Russia’s 🇷🇺 Ministry of Economy expects 8.8% contraction in 2022 (earlier expected 3% growth) with negative scenario of 12.4%. This is worse than 2008 GFC of -7.8% and comparable to 1992 of -14.5%. Правительство обсудило параметры макропрогноза

Правительство обсудило параметры обновленного макропрогноза

По оценкам Минэка, спад ВВП России в этом году составит 8,8%, уже в 2023 г. показатель выйдет на рост в 1,3%

www.vedomosti.ru

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

I took a brief moment from the news in the last hour … Big mistake. This will have a dramatic impact on inflation, global value chains, growth and could cause a global recession.

Emre Akcakmak

@akcakmak

2 years

A “you didn’t fire me, I resigned” moment, Putin bans export of products and raw materials until Dec 31. Might be subject to some details/exceptions, but this should push all key raw material prices further up. Here’s Russia’s *exports* as % of production of key raw materials👇

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ What G-7 should do with an even greater sense of urgency is help Ukraine plug in the $4-$5bn monthly budget gap due to higher defense and social spending and revenue shortfalls. My trip notes from Kyiv a few weeks ago

Timothy Ash

@tashecon

2 years

G7 should focus on changing laws to allow Ukraine to use the $300bn+ in frozen Russian assets for reconstruction. If Russia thought it was going to pick up the tab for all the destruction it might think twice before launching attacks.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ As the price cap discussion rages, it is good to know the basics of the Russian 🇷🇺 fiscal situation. Let's first unpick the baseline scenario. Ironic Kremlin says they won't comply with the 65-70$ oil price cap as it seems to be lifted right off Russia's budget.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ Sanctions on Russia are proving to be porous not only in energy. While self-sanctioning has been an important contributor to sanctions impact, many companies are still sitting it out. @SelfSanctions @JeffSonnenfeld

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ The @bank_of_russia in funeral black today Emergency measures: - rate up to 20% - FX/inflation negative loop - limited ability to use reserves (no interventions today) - liquidity and credit support to banks - 80% obligatory conversion of export proceeds

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Individuals took out more than 1 trillion (10bn) in cash from the Russian banking system in just over a few days.

Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

3/ Unlimited liquidity support to banks - as a result of bank withdrawals, banks are in liquidity deficit. I am thinking does it mean that people took out close to 1tr Rubles over the weekend?

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

DEAD SOUL | Vanity Fair | October 2008 on Putin’s methods of raising to and holding on to power kidnappings, heart attacks, residential building bombings, and Chechnya war. Still very relevant by ⁦ @mashagessen ⁩

DEAD SOUL | Vanity Fair | October 2008

Chosen as Russia's next leader by Boris Yeltsin's inner circle, in 1999, Vladimir Putin appeared to be a blank slate on which his supporters, his country, and the world could write their desires. Few...

archive.vanityfair.com

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

Sanctions are working. Russia 🇷🇺 has <2 months of imports reserves coverage ($581bn - $315bn frozen - Yuan and gold). It matters as the current account surplus is shrinking. The next step is to immobilize new inflows from '22 w/ @KSE_Institute @Nataliia_Shapo @ben_hilgenstock

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

6 years

A taxi in Moscow, during our short ride the driver traded some JPY @natashadoff @AndrianovaAnna @whitegl @tggrove

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Who is paying for the war in Russia 🇷🇺? Military spending is sharply up in the 2023 - 2025 budget. Are the authorities expecting a long war? Why is the increase in spending on internal security apparatus as high as on the military? Plus, more than a quarter of spending is hidden.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Russia's domestic banking system is gradually stabilizing. Severe bank runs triggered by the war and sanctions appear to have moderated. The chart shows how much the banking system as a whole deposits (+) or borrows (-) from the @bank_of_russia

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

I am excited and honored to share the great news that I have joined the Peterson Institute for International Economics. I look forward to working together with many distinguished and experienced colleagues at the @PIIE

Elina Ribakova

Elina Ribakova has been a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics since April 2023. She is also a nonresident fellow at Bruegel and a director of the Interna...

www.piie.com

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

8/ Energy embargo not only would wipe out Russia's all-time high current account surplus of 250$, but would also drive the fiscal position deep into deficits. Oil accounts for 30% of revenues. With -15% recession in 2022, it could be as much as 50% of revenues.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Ukraine's revenues are likely to fall by at least 50% opening a significant financing gap. The financing Ukraine is likely to receive from the @IMFNews won't last more than a month. We need an SDR allocation mechanism ASAP to help Ukraine. @Bedratenko

Економіка війни: як працюють українські фінанси і на скільки вистач...

Економіка війни: як працюють українські фінанси і на скільки вистачить грошей МВФ. Оцінки банкірів та аналітиків.

www.holosameryky.com

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ In Russia, transactions through the ⁦ @bank_of_russia ⁩ payments system are down 7.2% in June compared to 1Q2022. It is an excellent real-time indicator of economic activity. Meantime Ministry of Economy estimated growth down 4.3% in May 2022. Sanctions are working

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

EXCLUSIVE: Russia's vast sanctions evasion secures U.S. and European tech for weapons Thank you @DanielBush @Newsweek

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ With a lot of discussion of the oil price cap many forget to think about what it means for Russia's fiscal accounts. Can Russia 🇷🇺afford to wait it out? The short answer is yes. A thread 🧵

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Russia’s new cars sales decrease is -78.5% in April 2022 yoy. This is an important indicator of Russia’s consumer sentiment. Expect the economy to contract significantly in (-15%) the authorities expect -8-10% 2022 and subsequent contraction in 2023

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

2/ New friends that export semiconductors to Russia, top suppliers in 2022. New top suppliers (by the number of transactions0: China, HK, Estonia (?), and a few other surprising new entrants to the top.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

9 months

Our analysis explaining how Russia dodges the oil price cap is front page @ft . We continue to work with the authorities to close loopholes @KSE_Institute @ben_hilgenstock . @xtophercook @OilSheppard thank you for your investigative journalism.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Ukraine received $6.8 bn in aid since the beginning of the war (lhs below). Russia received ~$100bn in current account surplus (rhs).

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

4/ China is now the largest exporter to Russia, taking over other trade partners.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Coal? The EU starting from the bottom, shying away from more challenging options where it would become less reliant on Russia and more reliant on the US for energy imports.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Sanctions are not like a switch, they are working, but they take time. Indian banks refuse to connect to Russia's alternative to SWIFT for Ruble/Rupee transactions, worrying about the sanctions.

Индийские банки отказались присоединяться к российскому аналогу SWIFT

www.moscowtimes.eu

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ Gazprom has always been a geopolitical project as opposed to oil (rents to the budget) and metals (money for the oligarchs) sectors.

Dr. Benjamin L. Schmitt🇺🇸🇺🇦🇪🇺🇹🇼

@BLSchmitt

2 years

🚨BREAKING🚨Kremlin-controlled Gazprom will further reduce gas deliveries to Germany via #NordStream1 , bringing cut to 60%, while separately, Gazprom will cut gas deliveries to Italy by 15%. Russia is further weaponizing energy against Europe. As usual. #NotJustACommercialDeal

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Which countries' companies are choosing to stay in Russia🇷🇺, and which are going? Self-sanctioning speaks for itself. Based on @kse_ua extending @JeffSonnenfeld

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ What would sanctioning @bank_of_russia mean? It would be the first large central bank to be sanctioned. CB of Iran has been sanctioned alongside its systemic banks. Turned trade with Iran into barter. CBR holds less in the US and EU than it did in the past. @SalehaMohsin

Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

5/ Sanctioning @bank_of_russia of Russia is also on the table. Iran’s central bank has been sanctioned. The BoR prepared by moving money onshore in gold and diversifying away from the US and EU currencies and jurisdictions.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Sanctions and self-sanctioning is biting Russia 🇷🇺 oil output: ⁦⁦ @MinistryEconomy ⁩ expects oil output to fall by up to 17% in 2022 to the lowest level since 2003. Russia’s oil output is already -9% with @RosneftEN ⁩’s down 20%.

Exclusive: Russia sees its oil output falling by up to 17% in 2022 -document

Russia may see its oil production fall by as much as 17% in 2022, an economy ministry's document seen by Reuters showed on Wednesday, as the country struggles with Western sanctions.

www.reuters.com

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

50% of Russia's enterprises appear to have found new suppliers (end June), up from 1/3 in April. Only 3% say replacement of Western supplies is impossible. Industries most exposed include pharma, chemicals, machine building, metals and mining, and processing. @bank_of_russia

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ Can we trust Russian 🇷🇺data? Saying we cannot use any Russian data is not constructive. We need to find ways to assess economic performance and sanctions’ effectiveness. A thread 🧵on the good, the bad, the ugly, and the data that is no more.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

5/ An in-depth analysis @4freerussia_org lead by @Natalia_Budaeva with a team of @Saleksashenko @mironov_fm @pelizarov @Natalya_A @itskhoki @v_milov and many others

Free Russia Foundation THINK TANK • Effectiveness of U.S. Sanctions Targeting Russian Companies and...

This report evaluates the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions targeting Russian companies and individuals using the detailed trade data from 2021-2022 compiled by the Federal Customs Service of Russia

thinktank.4freerussia.org

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

Turkey surprised today Russian companies blocking their shipments of sanctioned goods. Russian companies are rushing to find alternative routes @kommersant some believe that @SecBlinken visit to Turkey is to blame and that the UAE is next following @FT reports.

Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

1/ Looking at the new "friends" exporters of semiconductors and electronic integrated circuits to Russia. Turkey is another "new entrant." w/ @mironov_fm @pelizarov @Natalya_A @4freerussia_org

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

2/ China has stepped in to support Russia's access to chips.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Russia's "seaborn" oil is a large share of total oil exports. Embargoying (mom targets or tariffs) of oil needs to be complemented by either secondary sanctions (not smth that the EU is likely to approve of) or sanctioning of shipments (insurance, waters, etc.) w @BHilgenstockIIF

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

I’ll be away from Twitter for a couple of weeks, apologies. I am ok; a minor medical issue I need to take care of. All I can say is always wear a helmet when 🚴🏼‍♀️ , saved me for sure, and the fact that the driver was going slowly even if not looking. I feel fortunate.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Friendship is over? In case of the EU oil embargo, how much oil would Russia be able to divert to China? Short answer is less than half at best. Russia’s oil infrastructure is geared towards Europe, including Druzba (“Friendship”) pipeline built all the way back in 1964.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

10/ We expect Russia's oil and gas production to contract this year by 20-30%. Once closed, some fields will never be able to be reopened. Apart from the significant indirect effect on Russia's economy, the energy embargo would directly hit nearly 10% of Russia's economy. END

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Great summary indeed. Cutting off Europe from Russia's gas would likely lead to blackouts and power rationing, not only for wholesale users. Heating might also be an issue in some countries.

Olivier Blanchard

@ojblanchard1

2 years

A while back, I asked whether and how the EU could adjust to Russia fully cutting exports of gas to the EU. This article is incredibly useful.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

5/ For Estonia there is a trend: some companies cut off all chip exports to Russia starting April 2022, one continued, and new ones popped up (the amounts in $ are still small, but...). One of the companies is covered here

David G-V

@gauthiervillars

1 year

A house deep inside a Moscow forest, a room in Hong Kong, a business center in Istanbul--our latest investigation takes you inside the secret supply chain feeding Russia with much-needed Western computer chips. w/ @stecklow & @motamman @SpecialReports

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

1/ Looking at the new "friends" exporters of semiconductors and electronic integrated circuits to Russia. Turkey is another "new entrant." w/ @mironov_fm @pelizarov @Natalya_A @4freerussia_org

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 month

Russian finance flows slump due to Dec 2023 E.O. The US can find out if you’re doing something wrong, even the smallest bank, if you are somehow connected to the dollar. So that scares people. ⁦ @FT ⁩ ⁦⁦ @maxseddon ⁩ ⁦ @NastyaStognei ⁩

Russian finance flows slump after US targets Vladimir Putin’s war machine

Washington’s crackdown shows its leverage over global banking system

www.ft.com

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

3/ A similar story of “friends” in 2022 for electronic integrated circuits. Russian imports, number of transactions by country in thousands.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ EU's dependency on Russia's gas is still significant. Russia is the largest supplier of gas to Europe. w/ @BHilgenstockIIF

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Russia's FX inflows are going from strength to strength thanks to high commodity prices. This is despite the severe discount of Urals to Brent.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

3 months

It's hard to find a more misleading quote about why sanctions didn’t “work.” 1) Russian oil was not sanctioned in 2022 and only somewhat in 2023. Russia cut gas off itself and continues to supply LNG. 2) Russia’s military equipment relies for more than 90% on Western-made

Arnaud Bertrand

@RnaudBertrand

3 months

This is hands-down the best explanation I've heard on why sanctions on Russia backfired, and why they were never going to succeed in the first place. By economist James K. Galbraith, professor at the University of Texas at Austin. Best quote of his explanation: "This is a

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ Lessons learned from #sanctions on Russia🇷🇺. One cannot switch the $1.5 trillion economy to crypto overnight. Russia also hasn't been under pressure to switch. Even if a large share of the banking system is under sanctions, cross-border transactions are still flowing.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

So that we don’t forget #migration ⁦ @umasalam ⁩ ⁦ @juliakarmo ⁩ ⁦ @MigrMatters ⁩

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

We expect Ukraine's GDP to contract by 30% in 2022. We also present scenarios based on assumptions: regions with isolated attacks (-15%), regions that were part of the initial invasion but have been reclaimed (y-axis), regions with prolonged war (x-axis) w @BHilgenstockIIF

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ As we had expected, measures on Russia's banks are coming (likely de-SWIFTing @sberbank ) and the beginning of measures on oil (likely numeric targets on reduction of Russia's oil purchases; eventually leading to an embargo?)

Josep Borrell Fontelles

@JosepBorrellF

2 years

Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine affects global security. We are working on the 6th package of sanctions which aims to de-swift more banks, list disinformation actors and tackle oil imports. These measures will be presented to the Council for approval.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

This will be a 1990’ scale crisis, but worse as Russia’s economy is traveling back in time towards complete autarky. Of course high uncertainty, including from the likely further (trade) sanctions.

Robin Brooks

@robin_j_brooks

2 years

We forecast a 15% contraction in Russia's GDP in 2022, double the contraction that Russia experienced in 2009 after the global financial crisis. Given escalating war in Ukraine, we see risks as tilted to the downside. Russia will never the the same again. With @elinaribakova

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

3/ China and HK support can be quantified by the value of shipments as well as the number of transactions (exports of chips to Russia). Others, like the US, Germany, and the UK have scaled back.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Great to see friends in Kyiv for a fantastic discussion on sanctions. Thank you so much for having me over @Nataliia_Shapo @Mylovanov

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

5/ Natural gas is harder, but not impossible to replace. So an oil embargo with taxes on natural gas in Europe with social assistance for low-income individuals can work.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

This is great news, but a medium-tend solution is also needed for Ukriane’s export infrastructure. Building back better means also EU standard gauges for cargo trains tracks within Ukraine. This is one of the projects where international financing should go to.

Samuel Ramani

@SamRamani2

2 years

BREAKING: Joe Biden announces that temporary silos will be build on the Poland-Ukraine border to facilitate grain exports

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

The US is discussing with the EU a cap on the price of Russia's oil National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan via @whitehouse

Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan En...

Aboard Air Force OneEn Route Los Angeles, California 1:51 P.M. EDT MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Okay. Hey, everybody. I have a topper for you, and then I’ll hand it over to Jake. Okay. Whoa. Thanks for...

www.whitehouse.gov

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

6 months

Getting the banks involved in helping enforce export controls on Russia. Just as we wrote about earlier in the year with @ben_hilgenstock and @GuntramWolff . I’m glad our research is making an impact.

Financial Times

@FT

6 months

Breaking news: The Biden administration will blacklist foreign financial institutions that support Russia’s military industrial complex as part of Washington’s efforts to starve Moscow’s war machine.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

Russia's old and new trade partners. What a difference a year (and an invasion of a neighbor) can make w/ @ben_hilgenstock @mironov_fm @TaniaBabina @itskhoki

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

2/ Russia has accumulated more than $100 bn in FX since the beginning of the war. The budget is in RUB 1.6 tr surplus so far. Cutting off Russia for a few weeks from oil with a complete embargo would achieve nothing, but a spike in commodity prices that would hurt global growth.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

Despite popular beliefs that China is getting large discounts on its purchases of Russian crude oil, this appears to be incorrect. In fact, we calculate an average price of $84/barrel in Dec.22 with @ben_hilgenstock @TaniaBabina @mironov_fm @itskhoki

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Sanctions are already creating a "tariff" on Russian oil pushing Russia's Urals discount to Brent to an unprecedented level and minimizing Russia's fiscal revenues and FX inflows. w @BHilgenstockIIF

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

7 months

Economic sanctions risk losing their bite as a US policy weapon via @FT

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

Who will stay in Russia to work? Even the Bank of Russia worries about the impact of the tight labor market on inflation. Demographics, skills mismatch, ongoing mobilization, and emigration are all shrinking Russia's potential growth. w @KSE_Institute @ben_hilgenstock

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Russia's current account hits new records, up by $138.5 bn in 1H2022, on track to reach our forecast of $200-250bn for the year and to recoup a big chunk of the frozen reserves ~$300bn. CA surplus for June alone was $28bn, driven by a trade balance surplus of $23bn.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Wars are expensive; making spending secret is not going to make it go away. The Kremlin’s decision to call up more than 300,000 soldiers has spread disruption among Russia’s private businesses via @WSJ @georgikantchev @ychernova @josephttwallace

Russia’s Mobilization, Plunging Oil Prices Weaken Putin’s Economic Hand

A costly troop mobilization, plunging energy prices and a new round of Western sanctions threaten to bear down on Russia’s already embattled economy and undermine the financial underpinnings of...

www.wsj.com

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Visa, Mastercard, paypal are leaving Russia. It will be an uphill battle to have MIR (ironically translates as either “world” or “peace”) from 24% to 100% of domestic card volume. In addition to SWIFT will make domestic banking very challenging.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

1/ Russia exports not only oil and gas, even if these account for ~50% of total exports. Russia has benefited from higher commodity prices more broadly.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ How does FX flow to Russian authorities from the large current account surplus? A thread 🧵

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Exports to Russia 🇷🇺 are recovering as sanctions prove porous, and companies choose to "wait" to leave Russia. Growth expectations for 2022 have moved closer to -6% compared to -8-10% earlier. Data to end-June where available w @BHilgenstockIIF

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Ruble is not yet open, and might not even open on Monday. Local bank apps are quoting 150$ and ATMs are running out of cash. Capital controls and massive rate hikes next (to 20%?) next. Question is if gradual or shock and awe on the already decelerating economy.

Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Domestic bank apps are quoting ruble at 150 to the dollar over the weekend.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ An honor to join @nickschifrin . A few percentage points of GDP in lost revenues are unlikely to change Putin's calculus. Sanctions are not like flipping a switch to magically stop the war, but over the medium term, they undermine Russia's ability to wedge the war.

PBS NewsHour

@NewsHour

2 years

The G-7, the European Union and Australia have agreed to cap prices of Russian oil at $60 or less per barrel in an effort to blunt the funding of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For more on this, @NickSchifrin spoke with @elinaribakova .

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

1/ Thread 🧵an update on Russia's 🇷🇺BoP accounts in 2q2022 that supports a lot of our expectations: Russia is swimming in cash, imports have contracted, but there are signs of Russia adapting. China and India are buying Russian oil, and Russian banks are accumulating money abroad

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Russia is swimming in cash it cannot spend, the current account surplus for January-June stands at $138.5 billion—roughly $100 billion higher than over the same period last year and more than double the previous annual record. w @BHilgenstockIIF

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

4/ One can read more about Estonia here and here. Our data seems to align with their findings.

Steve Stecklow

@stecklow

1 year

Another @Reuters sanctions story -- Exclusive: The global supply trail that leads to Russia’s killer drones

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

3/ The EU decided to not tighten sanctions on Russia’s seaborne oil because it understands that a short term complete embargo on Russia would achieve little in terms of impact on Russia, but dramatically hurt the EU.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

9/ Without oil revenues Russia's budget would be in deep red requiring likely @bank_of_russia help with financing.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

How many years is too many? So what has Putin's second decade deliver for Russia's growth?

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

1 year

@LHSummers The reasons are simple: 1. Fortress Russia strategy implemented since 2014 did work (fiscal rule, inflation targeting, bank system clean up) 2. Skillful response by the Bank of Russia (doubling Ruble rates and freezing FX deposits) 3. Energy sanctions are yet to be implanted

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

7/ Historically oil and oil products were key for Russia's balance of payments (around 40% of exports), but not with current gas prices (historically only ~11% of exports). So Russia would stand to lose its entire $250 bn current account surplus.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

How much oil can Russia redirect towards China? Given the infrastructural constraints only 20-40% over the course of 2022. w @BHilgenstockIIF

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Dramatic contraction in Russia's imports continues @BOFITresearch

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

2 years

Fleeing Putin, Thousands of Educated Russians Are Moving Abroad @georgikantchev @evangershkovich @ychernova Immigration from Russia increased as Medvedev passed the reigns back to Putin and accelerated sharply in the recent weeks.

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Elina Ribakova 🇺🇦

@elinaribakova

4 years

@gbrew24 @adam_tooze Thank you for the great analysis. What do you think a it the underlying geopolitical objective. For Russia, OPEC was also a non-ideological geopolitical project not only about oil and economics.

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